tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg June 23, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
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closing bell. ♪ around sessions highs. the best day and a month. joe: but the question is -- "what'd you miss?" scarlet: we get results of the bank said at this hour. we break down how banks and their capital levels there. joe: and does goal have a role in the economy -- does gold have a role in the economy. scarlet: and cutting the company's writing -- rating. and why this movie should raise alarm. u.k. citizens are voting in the referendum in their membership for the european union. u.k. law prevents us from reporting on discussing, and analysis while polls are open, but we will be following all of the action is results come across at 5:00 p.m., starting
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with specials -- special covers. scarlet: now to the market minute. u.s. stocks closing at their best levels in the session, a surge in the last 20 minutes of trade. and the s&p 500's best day in a month. and you have s&p 500 groups higher, everything from utilities although it to financials. -- all the way to financials. joe: and the end of the day, moving across the board. alix: and the rally started in asia, spread in europe, and now spread to the u.s. vix lostcks rally, the steam, but now it is on track for the biggest monthly climb since august, even though it went down today by about 70%. -- 17% that was what we had a dramatic selloff with china, so that was
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to pay attention to. in terms of bank, you had goldman as a big mover, jpmorgan come all of these guys adding a little under 40 points. joe: a quick look at an interesting bond, the ecb opening up a waiver for greek banks. this is a three day look at the price, not the yield on the 10 year bond, and you can see a rally today. nothing very dramatic, but news greece have missed -- returns to the fold in europe and the ecb and had the market open a little bit. joe: -- scarlet: consistent with the risk on theme, the euro, the pound, all gaining. the yen falling. i am keeping my eye on norwegian currency. versus the euro, which is you
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are seeing at its strongest and more than a week. and it will deliver less monetary stimulus. less as oil rallies, and we care because they are the biggest oil producer. alix: good call. scarlet: in terms of commodities. alix: thank you. commodities, i am looking at copper, oil and corn. they continue this theme that we are seeing. what really caught my eye, copper, the longest rally in two months. and you had led and aluminum gaining in london. corn, still lagging. there is rain and the midwest, so hopefully it will help with the crops. scarlet: taking a dive into the bloomberg. you can find all these charts at alix:ttom of the screen -- at the bottom of the screen. alix: i am looking at coco.
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the problem line is coco traded in sterling, ended around the percent today. and then in dollar terms, about 7/10 of 1%. technically, the lines should be moving to get a bid it should move on whether and -- moving together. it should move on weather and demand supply. and when cocoa prices go up, the mango down. scarlet: and a comeback in commodity prices, the top spot among developed markets in equities. take a look at the bloomberg, s&p index, the canadian index. it is an white. -- and really the turn came yesterday. zoom in, the white line again is canada, blue line is new zealand. we have canadian material companies up 40 -- 44%, the best
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in decades. and energy producers up as well, as the commodity prices recovered. joe: you are so negative on canada stuff at the beginning of the year. alix: you had to be with those prices. definitely a comeback that people were not expecting. ,oe: i am looking at a chart the initial jobless claims. the nonseasonally way -- seasonally adjusted claims. it hit yet another brand-new postcrisis low. weak - -- that jobs report, but this is solid as a rock. not something that looks like on the eve of recession. alix: you have to wonder, the dude report that we get on -- june report that we can on friday. scarlet: you can see all of
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these and more on twitter. alix: the chief global strategist at deutsche bank joins us now on set. but we love about your research, you tracking a lot of flows, where people are taking the money and where they are putting it into. in terms of equity flow, what is tracking the mustard now -- tracking the most right now? guest: they're basically has been nothing happening over the last few weeks. that is good news. as you know, u.s. equities have been in a range. ,he way that we categorize it for much of the time last year, and so, the two ago -- until a month or two ago, we had money going to mostly europe and japan. at the peak with the bottom of the outflow, we are dropping about 250 billion. over the last weeks, what we have had is continuous outflows
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from europe that are most noticeable. inflow, little bit of outflow. alix: we saw that in that chart. joe: one area were there has been unmitigated bull market, is anything government -- is anything safe? government bonds? it seems like we were talking about record low yields. what will it take to turn that around and with -- that around, and if and when it does, how bad could the downside be? guest: i think it is a function of who doesn't and when, and does -- does it, and when. -- inld be the u.s. and september and december, an equal amount basically on the 10 year. i would say, if you think back to the last rate hike cycles, we
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spent -- we talked about the bond conundrum, they had raised rates x times and expectations -- 6 times in expectations did not move. afterwards, once the fed raised rates sufficiently, the market moved up. so, this is what we call a show me live. -- lag. so you know, the current pricing is really that the market has out any sort of rate hiking cycle. our reading is the market is now pricing one hike over the next three years. alix: the chart reaction just pulled up. scarlet: different events that are tipping the market. pretty much nothing for the next three years, so if the fed does hike, the market will
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be treated as a one-off. movee curve is unlikely to as in any other cycle, but once the fed hikes sufficiently, they will start to reprice. and you ask, what will be the unwind? it is through the fed. as you are aware, one of the biggest issues, one of the best trades of the year has to do with the yen, and what is striking about the japanese yen, it is actually strongly correlated for the last year of -- for the last 1.5 years, for the long year -- long-term yields. and the relationship is the opposite of what people think it is. scarlet: i want to stick with the equities for a moment because with one rate hike over the next three years, what has been the position of investors in different sectors? whether financials or utilities?
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guest: sure. our positioning is not active equity fund managers, the long and short community, have positioned cyclically, slightly longer financials, under raised utilities, everything. alix: kind of what we are looking with the yellow bars. guest: exactly. until a couple of days ago, some of the most punishing weeks where the last week, we have seen in some time. and what joe was saying, those rates going to new lows in europe and japan. in the u.s., not quite as low, but pretty close. joe: will the financials trade, a lot of people going into the first rate hike saying my financials do well on the rate hike cycle, they have not worked
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out like that at all. will it work out at some point? will we start to see these business models come back to life? guest: it will work out. the rates are up. so, the simple point is that the catalyst has not really delivered what it typically delivers in the rate hiking cycle, which means they move up. and so i would say for some time, last year the financials did work, so they will work. but we have to wait for the fed. alix: but not yet. scarlet: we always have to wait for the fed. thank you. we will be discussing more on the bank of japan and why they are driving the yen higher. ♪
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♪ let's get the first word news. u.k. citizens putting today on their membership in the european union. prime minister david cameron was among those casting ballots. u.k. law prevents us from reporting on the issues while the polls are open, but we will be following all of the action as a result, and. special coverage will begin at 5:00 p.m. wall street time, 10 of 1 p.m. in london. -- 10:00 p.m. in london. and the setting of the house lasted more than 25 hours in effort to demand votes on gun legislation in the aftermath of the orlando massacre. republicans adjourned the house until after the fourth of july recess. paul ryan spoke to reporters. >> i will not dwell on the house today, other than to say that we
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are not going to allow stunts like this to stop us from carrying out the people's business. mark: republicans stage a similar process in 2008 during a push to expand oil and gas drilling. the house did tend to business during the sit in. the past a measure to fight the zika virus. permitted noaders debate and immediately adjourned the house through july 4. with the white house wanted more money. and the number of syrians in need of humanitarian aid is around 5 million. that is an increase of nearly one million people over previous estimates. a relief coordinator also notes that the continuing attack on hospitals and medical facilities violate international law and to carry council resolutions. there will be no fourth of july fireworks for american troops in
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japan this year. that is because of restrictions imposed after a former marine was accused of raping and murdering a woman on ok now walk. it triggered outrage on the southern island, where tensions prettily rise over crime linked to u.s. military bases. ♪ mark: global news, 24 hours a day, powered for -- and more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. back to you. alix: what is up with the yen? that is my question. a strategist from deutsche bank joins us. look at the bloomberg, this white line is u.s. minus japanese 10 year real rates, stripping out inflation. as a goes up, the rate in the u.s. are rising. and the blue line is the dollar-yen. they go in the same kind of
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direction, but they are not right now. the real rates in the u.s. are picking up, lower in japan, but yet the yen is stronger against the dollar. how does this make sense? guest: it makes complete sense if you believe that monetary policy, the easing of monetary policy and terms of lowered interest rates, is having a negative impact on the economy, or having a negative impact on risk appetite. keep in mind, the country japan has a surplus, so that surplus implies float into japan that are -- flow into japan. so if you do anything with the millet -- monetary policy, that is negative for expected growth or risk appetite. you are going to reduce the capital outflows on any particular day or period of time. given that surplus, that will mean upward pressure on
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currency. scarlet: is that the reason why the japanese yen is the first choice, because this is not miss -- make sense. -- one, euro has 12 too, right? guest: it has a safe haven aspect. it behaves like a safe haven, because -- but not because money is pouring in, because money is pouring out. think about the surplus as a source of natural upward pressure on the currency, and that means on any given day or month or week, you need an equal capital outflow just the currency where it is at. is notess the capital anding out, and in my view, i think we have spoken about some of the year, monetary --
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here, monetary policies have a negative impact. so if you take the yield by itself and the dollar-yen, there is a very tight 93% correlation for the last 18 months. that means, every time that the bank of japan says, i am going to ease come or do more quantitative easing -- he's, or do more quantitative easing, the yield goes down and the yen goes up. beginning of this, we saw easing from japan, we saw the break from a very long-term bull market. it seems like they went further negative, but did something change when they actually flipped over to negative that really alters the fundamentals? guest: if you take the chart we were talking about, you could put a line in the middle and it would exactly flip. two things about the earlier time, number one, keep in mind
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the yet began to depreciate in september, 2012. this was on the expectation of quantitative easing, but it was very much part of a three aero pronged approach, this really raised the risk appetite and monetary easing also led to a lot of short yen positioning in the markets. so you improve risk appetite, you encourage outflows, you get depreciation, but continued easing is now hurting the risk appetite. alix: so what is the share value of the yen? guest: lots of people do it different ways. we are at a point in time, you look at the preferred rate differential, despite the fact it has gone up, it is still expensive. it is a little bit lower if you
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look in another measure, so a couple of young lower -- young lower, but they are pretty much the same. scarlet: there is a correlation between easing and driving the yen higher, so what is your recommendation, how should investors position themselves? guest: if you think about the boj trying to ease to improve things in japan, and what is doing is raising the yen, making things worse -- i would hope, this is what i mentioned earlier, that they would stop. and i think it is telling that at the last meeting, when there were building expectations on if they were going to do more, they did not do anything. alix: this shows that they will actually ease, when you look at the 12 month futures. guest: it is a signal. it might not, but they are not yet saying that they are done.
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if they are done and they come to the conclusion and stop, i would argue that the longer bond yields, the market is pricing of further and putting it into negative territory. yieldsstop, the bond will go up. i would stay within the 30 year bond yields that are negative. but i would be long on the yen and i would underrate japanese equities. alix: thank you so much. great to have you on the program. scarlet: coming up, we have a chart on chinese stocks. that is next. ♪
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chinese stocks have retreated and this comes as concern as mounting debt stimulate in china. chinese stocks are traded in the u.s. and it is -- this is my favorite, with a long-term moving average is about across below the 50 day. we saw that in august of 2015, and you saw them fall. back in february, around the same time you saw the stocks hit their lows. it is about to happen right now. joe: love it. alix: me too. alix: b we want to bring in betty liu. guest: it is technical. especially when you're looking sends allck swans, it of those technicalities out of the way. but you are right. the chapter says -- the chart says, well, we already have one
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of the worst performing stock market in the world and it might get worse. others might say, no actually, that is a good signal bit when everybody thinks it will get worse or the whole tied is against -- tide is against one market, that is the time to buy. several investors, very prominent ones, one particular whoese hedge fund investor actually has made quite a bit of money betting on chinese stocks and he foretold earlier this chinese big decline in shares. he says now is the time to buy and things will stabilize, at least for the short term. scarlet: you have to have a feeling for the chinese market. it seems like a crazy proposition. guest: it is. anybody who wants to time the market, he says, i am not bright enough to time any market, but
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it's you do -- if you do, it could be a full game. -- fool's game. alix: yes, some investors might be into it, but there is a lot of fear out there. guest: and there is a lot of unexpected events that could come up. you have the president not adding shanghai stocks to the indexes. in some predicted that they would. -- and some predicted that they would. guest: that actually is a signal or a reason why it might go into the chinese market, global, because they believe that it is overblown, how beneficial it would be for the market. seenact that we have not this collapse because of that, that could be another reason to buy chinese shares. alix: betty, thank you. guest: it is hard to decipher the market. alix: be sure to tune in 7:00
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party's on! know what your pets are up to with xfinity home. xfinity. the future of awesome. see the secret life of pets, in theaters july 8th. alix: we have breaking news on the banks trust test. all 33 banks have exceeded the minimum requirements. ---- exceeding the minimum capital ratios. be $385 loss would billion in the most severe hypothetical scenario they have outlined for the banks. human too bring in discuss these results. this is the first of stress tests. there is no pass or fail here. >> of course they like to say
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there is no pass or fail. if anybody was below the minimum capital requirement after the scenario, they would have failed miserably and would have had to come up with some action, such as raising capital so they could not fail next week. the reason the fed does not like pass/fail at this stage is because they have a week after these results to see if they are really low. vacant site, -- they can say, oh don't worry, we are going to sell some shares. there is a remediation opportunity within the next week. but it's close. we're trying to do a chart that shows that some banks are close to the minimum. if they are close to the minimum, they can still fall below the minimum with their buyback plan. alix: what banks are at risk? yalman: the results are not bad overall.
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we just focus on some that are closer to the minimum. above, but still close. there are a handful of small banks like huntington, at lightbank. --i lightbank. morgan stanley, that gets their attention. their leverage ratio, which was one of the things the feds look at, comes within a percentage point of the minimum. that is still good. it is not that close, that you're not on the break. alix: it is 4.9%, right? close. itu know, it's is the yellow zone. if they wanted to buy back lots of shares in the next 12 months, they might have to grow that down a little bit and not by as much back. or if they wanted to double their dividends, they could only increase by 30%. it might require more tweaking within the next six days, but they are not feeling failing.
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it's not as scary. scarlet: bank of america has been under previous scrutiny. it did not do that well in the last 2 years in stress tests. yalman: one part that we don't see from the numbers is qualitative. the fed actually scrutinizes very carefully how their risk management systems are -- are they reporting everything properly? are all this divisions sending the data in the right way? and bank of america fumbled on that front couple times. last year initially they passed, and a few months later they admitted themselves that they had actually given the wrong numbers. their capital would be $4 million less than i thought it would be. retroactively. so these qualitative errors --
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you don't look like you are on top of your process -- that is very negative as well. thus, they have been spending a lot of money, and they have talked about have any new people that have had to hire, to make sure everything is very clean by the time they get to the feds. joe: bottom line, are you surprised that these results were all 33 banks expected to exceed the minimum requirement? based on what we were seeing, how do you expect investors will take the news? yalman: i am not surprised. they have improved over the years because they are learning the process.and they are increasing capital levels . capital in the u.s. banking system has gone up and up and up. when you start from a higher capital level, despite stress, you still get good capital. but the fed is trying to make the tests tougher by bringing in surcharges for the biggest banks. once the minimum is up -- now
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they need 4.5%, for example, for their best quality capital. six% because up to the capital surcharge for being a systemically important bank is taken into account, the bar is lifted. when the bar is lifted, we might see more banks and the yellow and red zones. alix: i should point out, we are seeing banks stocks up in after-hours trading. bank of america and morgan stanley are up. this is a market mover. scarlet: i wonder, you talk about how the bigger banks don't want to be characterized. they have to swallow the pill that comes with it. these stress tests are somewhat unpredictable. they change a lot of the parameters, taking banks by surprised. is this an element that will continue to persist in coming years, the fact that the banks can't gain it -- can't game it the way they used it?
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yalman: that is the part banks hate mostly. their standard, the economy shrinks by 5%, unemployment goes up to 10% -- but based on that bank model, there are potential losses. they turn those into the fed, along with their assertions. the fed takes in those numbers and assumptions and changes them around and says no, we don't like your assumptions, and comes up with different numbers. when these things are returned to the banks themselves, they are like, really? there is a surprise element always. as the bar lifts and as there is the unknown element, there is always a trade push and pull exercise between the big banks and the fed. scarlet: so the next step is next wednesday, when we get more details whether the banks can return cash to shareholders and do buybacks.
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from reporting on putting issues while the polls are open, but we will follow all the actions as results come in. coverage begins at 5:00 p.m. new york time, in about 20 minutes from now, and at 10:00 p.m. in london. the u.s. supreme court blocked president obama's plan that would've kept millions from living illegally in the u.s. from being deported. judges were locked 3-4, ruling that the president overstepped his authority. that effectively kills the plane for the rest of his presidency. pres. obama: this is an election year. politicians tend to use the immigration issue to scare people with words like amnesty, in hopes that it will waver votes. keep in mind the millions of us, myself included, go back generations in this country. our and sisters put in the ping -- our ancestors put in the painstaking effort to become citizens.
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mark: hillary clinton believed "the president acted well within his constitutional and legal authority." donald trump tweeted "s.c. supreme court has kept us safe from amnesty. but hillary clinton takes jobs from hispanic and african-american workers." in tyhe flint water crisis, the epa has given the all clear for after want to drink filtered tap water. the agency is lifting a recommendation that pregnant women, nursing mothers, and children under 6 only drink bottled water to avoid lead exposure. puerto rico has about $2 billion in bond payments due in 8 days. its governor says the island will default on its general obligations, even if services are halted. governer padilla padilla made his remarks and washington, where he is lobbying to set up a framework to restructure puerto
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rico's $70 billion debt. the u.s. senate should take up the measure next week. at least 78 were killed when a powerful tornado and hailstorm struck the outskirts of an eastern chinese city. the twister destroyed buildings, smashed trees, and flipped over vehicles. the tornado hit a densely populated area and farms and factories, 500 miles south of beijing. 500word article injured -- injured, 200 quickly. byhour news a day, powered journalists and over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. joe: gold has been a performing strong asset. but it does it play a bigger role in the financial system? to debate the question, our bloomberg view columnist and also jim records, editor of
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strategic intelligence and "the new case for gold." jim, what is the new case for gold? jim: it is a nondigital asset. i bump into billionaires around greenwich, connecticut. you have digital wealth -- it can be hacked and eliminated. good luck getting it back. you want hard assets. there are silver, fine arts, etc. >> we are all going to die, our to do resources are going to be lost -- look, there is a new case for gold because the old case for gold -- collapsing dollar, hyperinflation, the fed is going to rule us -- that hasn't worked out. gold was a great performer in the 2000s because you had a weak dollar and the fed was hell-bent on cutting rates.
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those conditions don't exist today. joe: jim, this is my first thought too. when you bring in stuff about how the digital economy might collapse-- >> not that it will collapse, but that it could be wiped out. joe: the old talking points about hyperinflation. jim: $80 million can disappear. that is a rounding error in the global economy. joe: they have talked about hyperinflation, the dollar being worth as much as toilet paper -- none of that has panned out. is this just finding a new argument when the old arguments did not pan out? jim: the reason we did not have inflation -- it takes money plus velocity. declining.y has been the economy is hanging by a thread. international deflationary reports. you can't always get what you
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want. the fed won't rest until they do. what are you waiting for? gets the gold now. when gold spikes up, i will go to switzerland. now going back to london, now to china. china is not selling. you have physical shortages, mine are shut in. inflationary is coming. >> it's coming! it will be here any day. i have been hearing that for eight years. do you remember the open letter to the fed? look, i am a long-term investor. i believe in a diversified global portfolio. when we look overlong periods of time, and i fully admit to cheating in the chart that went up in today's column. i picked the peak of gold back in the day. coincidently the dow is at the same price. 37 years later, in gold is
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little higher, but the dow is at 18,000. look over long periods of time. gold does not give you a coupon, discounted cash flow, and it does not give you a dividend. when you look at the factors that cause the total return for portfolios, dividends are enormous component to the equity. jim: in a world of negative interest rates, gold is the high-yield asset. zero is higher than negative. joe: but is less rain three and 4%. gold, like cash, as a cost of carry. and gold, arguably, is higher. jim:. supposed to have a yield. there is no yield because it is money. gold is an investment. in a world where there is no monetary accuracy -- i spoke to ben bernanke -- the international monetary system is incoherent. it is collapsed 3 times in the
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past 100 years. joe: it also seems to be fairly resilient. in 2008-2009, people were talking about living in central park. fed guaranteed every bank-- >> that always happens. you interact with these billionaires and greenwich, connecticut -- they are not going to allow their billions of dollars to become nothing. jim: i have not met one that does not have gold. >> they also have real estate. they have bonds, they have fixed income. jim: at the end of december, i said get tenure notes. i recommend gold for 10%. i am not say so everything and buy -- sell everything and buy gold. i would invest in equity and technology companies. >> jim is one of the few rational gold hawks. look, we run an asset management
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shop. we see these portfolios all the time. i can't tell you how often we see portfolio where some things they are diversified by having, well we have the etf, and that's not diversified. what he is describing is closer to a diversified portfolio. joe: i am disappointed that you guys do not come to blows, but we have to wrap it up. thank you very much. glad that you both shook hands. alix: love a good gold debate. tesla's move to buy solarcity has moved some eyebrows, especially for elon musk. we dig into that an nouncement. ♪
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alix: one of the most bullish analysts on tesla joined those that criticized elon musk's proposal to buy solarcity. less asterisk take than his analyst peers in more than a year. the looks for $245 a share, a percent below the analyst in the bloomberg survey. joining us from houston to discuss the deal is professor of finance at the university of houston. craig, you are a very big critic of this deal as well. what is your biggest problem with it? craig: it makes no economic sense. you have two companies that are bleeding cash at a horrific rate. during them together is just going to make the problems worse. in particular, solar city is in
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a bad way the entire industry is in a bad way. ising that burden onto tesla very negative for the company. what's more, the justification given for the deal is the most laughable. talking about synergies that don't exist and vertical integration that isn't vertical integration -- that also raises suspicions about what the real justification is. joe: craig, you are vicious in your writing about elon musk and tesla and solarcity. but all of these companies's financies are public. all of the investors that have bid up tesla's share can see how much cash they are making and burning. what do you see that investors are missing? craig: well, i don't know. it hasstors' heads, always appeared to me that, first of all, the company's
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model is dependent on government funding. that was the real reason for my initial skepticism and criticism of musk and tesla and solarcity, etc. that it was really making money off the backs of u.s. taxpayers. there is a question about how long that is going to last. air,lso there was this this hype around it. every time there would be negative news, musk would come out with some new type statement that would get people's attention away from the bad news. that really set off alarm bells with me, anyway. scarlet: the alarm bells are concerned with the debt that solarcity has racked up. about half of that debt is nonrecourse, meaning that is tied to completed progress, and not on the company's's balance
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sheet. can you say that they are teetering on the brink of anglesey with a recourse to? --recourse debt? craig: i think the entire industry is in bad shape. i think the money is in serious risk of going into financial distress or bankruptcy without an intervention like what musk and tesla are essentially proposing. alix: talk to us about, why now? if you feel like solarcity might go bankrupt, why then did elon musk go in and buy it now? craig: that is what actually makes this look very curious. essentially the economic justification isn't there. $3 billion eventually evaporated at the announcement of the deal. that was predictable in advance, but nonetheless it was done anyway. that suggests that there was
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some other motivation other than the stated justification. scarlet: one argument some have made is that it's driven by the sun edison bankruptcy. before then, solarcity might have been able to borrow money. but now that it happened, it can't access any kind of funds. joe: what do you make about the governance question? immediately when the deal was announced, people talked about musk's relationship with both companies, from your perspective, does not raise further red flags? -- does that raise further red flags? craig: yes, it does. that is why it has led me to question what the real justification is, whether this is a real business combination, or whether this is essentially in elon musk's self interest. there have been governance questions about tesla and musk and solarcity for a long time. that is one of the reasons why
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the stock price reactions suggest that the likelihood of a deal going through is relatively small. nonetheless, tesla's stock has stayed down. i think that is because this is raised serious questions about the company. alix: greg pirrong from the university of houston. alixscarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for for tomorrow's trading day. ♪
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john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to the efforts of america's timekeepers, it seems a little excessive. >> the countdown clock telling me we are 23 hours and 40 minutes and 50 seconds. >> if we how to count on clock, i would not need to tell you this. less than 24 hours away from the start-- >> we do. >> [laughter] oh good! i was getting. >> 21 hours and counting. that is the clock on your screen. >> with the vote clock showing two minutes, 17 seconds. >> we are counting to tonight's cnn libertarian townhall. >> our countdown to for the july. >> our countdown to short week. >> 20 minutes on
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