john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to the efforts of america's timekeepers, it seems a little excessive. >> the countdown clock telling me we are 23 hours and 40 minutes and 50 seconds. >> if we how to count on clock, i would not need to tell you this. less than 24 hours away from the start-- >> we do. >> [laughter] oh good! i was getting. >> 21 hours and counting. that is the clock on your screen. >> with the vote clock showing two minutes, 17 seconds. >> we are counting to tonight's cnn libertarian townhall. >> our countdown to for the july. >> our countdown to short week. >> 20 minutes on the countdown

clock starting now. >> that is when you go 3, 2, 1. down ♪t is the final count ♪ tonight on this very newsy posh and spicy thursday show, an regression deadlock, agun control standoff, and donald trump's policy plan. but first, a breakfast referendum scam. polls are now closed in the u.k., where voters weighed on whether to cut ties with the european union. we want to know the results for a few more hours, but the outcome could have dramatic results on the future of europe, but also here in america and in american politics. the vote comes on the same day that donald trump is taking a break from the campaign trail and going to scotland, where he's taking on a couple of his golf courses. the presumptive nominee has publicly supported the idea of the u.k. leaving the eu with hillary clinton siding with

president obama.president obama in april went to london, stood behind the british prime minster, and got on the "rema in" train. joining us is our bloomberg colleague. the polls have just closed there. tell us what you know. >> very little at the moment in terms of turnout and results. as he said, the polls and just closed in the u.k. we are not going to get an official exit poll in the way we do with a general election. we might see some of the private polls come out in the next couple of hours. we are keeping an eye out on that. the first results will come out in about 2 hours. we are scheduled to get gibraltar at midnight bst. these are often approximate times, so they might not be the exact time. the bulk of the results will come at 3:30 a.m. the rsults of what is been in decisive vote inverse history,

to remain whether in the european union or not. a flood of issues with -- a lot of issues talking about how a "leave" vote could have on the economy. focusing on immigration and other issues like sovereignty. back to you. mark: thank you very much. john, we have no idea the results. what is the impact? john: this is obviously a european issue. is, as you suggested, an american components to it. what is driven the leave forces is a big phenomenon across western photographers --western democracies, the anti-immigrant isolationist nativist impulse. leavee seen that in the campaign and the donald trump campaign. it seems to be a big test of that movement.

how strong is that movement? this moment in our western democracy, how strong is it? this is the biggest and most important test. it may give us some sense of whether this global phenomenon is ending or flowing. -- ebbing or flowing. mark: i don't think it will affect the american election, because this is a specific vote about a specific win. i don't think it will impact the economy either way. i think the markets have already figured out they are ready for anything. there are some issues in this american election, i can see this having an effect. john: we have no idea. the financial markets have been optimistic about the notion that remain would win for a while. be"leave" wins, it would surprising because it would defy the bulls. mark: the market would just absorb it. john: i hope that is true. i think the u.s. could use a market shock. wins, just the

narrative of what is happening in this country -- you can look at that and say man, those impulses but talked about before that had been fueling the trump movement will not change our electoral outcome, but you can look and say those forces are on the march. john: mark: we know they are on the march because bernie sanders and donald trump did very well. john: we will talk more about the brexit vote later. here at home, the gun control debate continued on the hill. a bill by suzanne collins that would've prevented those on the terrorist watch list from buying our firearms did not get support from the majority of the chamber. that followed a remarkable 25 hour sit-in protest by house democrats on the floor of the chamber, which started yesterday and ended around lunchtime today. the for just, led by congressman

john lewis, who has sinchistory opt sit-ins, created bad ryan.r speaker at his weekly capitol hill press conference, ryan called the whol e competition an and appropriate ploy by house democratic members. ryan: if this is anot a political ploy, why are they trying to raise money off of this? a political tragedy? wednesday -- what they called for field in a committee in the house. i call this a stunt because they know this is not going anywhere. it already failed in the senate. they may not like this fact, but this bill could not even get 50 votes in the u.s. senate, let alone 60. i don't think this should be a proud moment for democracy or

those who stage these stunts. john: paul ryan not looking particularly cheerful there. this was an unprecedented thing to happen on the floor of the house. given the discussion about guns, what is the political fallout from a ryan and the gun control debate? mark: incredible passions and energy. on partsay, gutsyness of the houston press, those that have -- of the house democrats. side thoseas on his that don't think this is good legislation, who care about the second amendment and the rules of the house. the notion that yes, this is a cause that is popular in the bowling -- polling, but without rules and the house, you have chaos. there are a lot of strong emotions on both sides.

it shows that those that would like additional gun-control measures are as and howard and is energized as they have ever been. that means there may be more change in the short time that i thought just a few days ago. john: this guarantees that house democrats will bring this back in a big way. gun-control in relatively modest form will be the center of a lot of campaigns. the place that democrats have the whip hand politically, wherever you stand on this issue -- the notion of doing her job, taking votes on things. the same way that a lot of americans find it frustrating that you can't get a supreme court nominee to get a hearing. why the house can't just proceed. if you don't like the measures, vote no. that is a powerful treatment that could sway people going forward. mark: ryan pointed out, the good

discharge if they have a majority. john: there was interesting discussion last night, house democrats claim that ryan is just trying to protect a certain number of house republicans that know where their constituencies are. mark: i think this won't happen without the president calling paul ryan directly. to spin court split th -- the supreme court split 4-4 challenging president obama's immigration plan. it block obama's effective orders that lines to shield 11 million undocumented immigrants from deportation. shortly after, president obama had this to say in the white house briefing room. pres. obama: during election years, politicians tend to use immigration to scare people with words like amnesty in hopes that it will whip up votes.

keep in mind the millions of us, myself included, go back generations in this country, with ancestors that put in the painstaking effort to become citizens. mark: both the presidential candidates weighed in. hillary clinton put out a statement, "this decision is a stark reminder of the harm donald trump would do to our families, our and communities, and our country." trump has pledged to repeal president obama's executive actions on his first day in office. he has called mexican immigrants richest -- immigrants rapists and murders. donald trump statement said "this physician will decide whether we not we have a border and safe country. clinton has hurt poor african-american hispanic workers by giving away their jobs to immigrant labor

while making us all less safe." how does this supreme court decision against the president impact the presidential race? john: it is a decision by not decision. a 4-4 split. it points out how important the last seat is in the election. it gives both candidates a powerful card to play. the future of the country rests house gets int he the white next. i think the politics of immigration, and the nature of the country, favors democrats. i think hillary clinton is playing a winning hand in terms of driving hispanic turnout. mark: the only advantage i think this gives trump is that it energizes hillary clinton in states that she could use the help. it allows donald trump to talk about immigration not in terms of the wall. that is become such a hot button issue. appeal on him to becom

executive orders and on the border. the extent that immigration is a winning issue for republicans, this gives donald trump a better chance than just talking about the wall. john: that's obviously intentional to not talk about the wall. i am wondering the extent to which he will go back to the wall, or the extent to which you can escape it. mark: i think you can escape it. john: i wonder if that is the case. this will be between president obama and hillary clinton on the same site. i can see how it can play to trump's benefit, but it plays to the democrats in a much bigger way. mark: when we come back, hillary clinton has a big endorsement day. but first, these words from our sponsors. ♪

john: hillary clinton's campaign announced 50 investments from business leaders. who workedig anames, in the white house for ronald reagan and george w. bush. on the short yesterday we mentioned that clinton picked up the the endorsement of a former bush '41 endorsement. getidea that she would endorsements from republicans -- given the nature of this race, endorsements from republican ceo anre more damaging to donald trump? mark: the ones that will matter the most are those that come

from those famous nationally, but also states people. a lot of ohio republicans with no national repetition. all of these matter. all of these are unusual. they speak to the alienation some sections of the party have from trump. it is a way to drive new cycles, and their many more coming. john: i said yesterday that the question about trump's business readiness to become commander-in-chief is a huge problem for him. but it is the case that he is a businessman who touts his business skills constantly as credentials for being president of the united states. if hillary clinton becomes the candidate of big business, fortune 500 ceos, it becomes clear that she has the support of most of the business community, that is a huge asset for h er. i cannot discern which is a bigger asset. that is a really big deal for her. democrats that are the candidate of big business tend to be winning democrats. mark: bill clinton got

endorsements from big business folks in 1992. it affects fundraising. a lot of these business folks are those who are butlers. john: barack obama did the same thing. helped him too. mark: house speaker paul ryan has been rolling out a lot of policy plans over the last few weeks on health care, poverty, several other issues. the wall street journal published a couple of offense along the same lines. -- of op-eds along the same lines. they say it would be a good idea for to jump to simply embrace -- for donald trump to simply embrace these proposals to cover up the fact that he has not put up much policy, in order to unite the policy. "the house agenda is the trump rosetta stone. an off-the-shelf template for getting through the next five months. a way for the party's nominee to sing from the same hymnal rather than stab each other in the back." karl rove wrote this about the house policy efforts. they vital to the gop's success

and may determine mr. trump's political fortunes. fishing is he is making there were carter." -- their work harder. how likely is it that trump will embrace the right agenda, or is there some downside? -- ryan agenda, or is there some downside? john: if he is smart, he will embrace most if not all of it. and immigration and trade, he won't embrace the whole thing. to my knowledge he has no real policy shop. he has nothing fleshed out in any way that we consider a as a candidate to have. he needs some to be taken seriously. ryan's policies are at least credible and real. it's not to say that you should outsource this stuff, but given where trump is, it makes a lot of sense. mark: with the party platform, i don't agree with everything, but with the broad strokes. with entitlement reform and

spending cuts -- the ryan plans are not big enough to -- not vague enough to cause a problem. john: to maintain the ryan endorsement, by embracing much of his agenda, it might help him soft and some of ryan's tendency to criticize them when he says controversial things. mark: a safe harbor. john: a, richmond joins us to talk about his role in the 25 hours house sit-in right after this.

mark: our next guest just got

back from leaving the final 25 hours of the choreographed tempor -- choreographed democrat sit-in. joining us is congressman steve israel. steve: thanks for having me on. i worked late shift last night. mark: you look pretty well rested, although i get the voice. speaker ryan was pretty defined today. after all that effort, tell me what your best case scenario is going forward. rep. israel: best case scenario is that republicans are going home on vacation. they will face anger in their districts. their constituents are going to want to know why they left for vacation without even voting on sensible legislation like no fly, no buy. they chose not only not to vote, but to leave washington early as the demott even want to continue the week's work. they will spend a week in their districts feeling some heat.

they will come back on july 5 and feel more heat. john: talk of it more about that heat. what is that heat going to look like from your side of the aisle? rep. isarel; we said we will use all all of the tools in our toolbox. some will be short and shown will be blunt. to try and force a vote on no fly no buy. the republicans returned to their districts at their own peril. you'll see the use of similar tools to make sure that republicans' constituents know that they would not even allow us to have a vote on this bill. no matter how you have felt, that won't even allow us to have a food. they will come back on july 5 for a second week of h eat on this issue. mark: congressman, does that mean you are thinking that resuming a sit-in when republicans come back to capitol hill? honest, il: i will be

don't reveal the playbook on national television. but we told the republicans early on that they should give us a vote, and we would use every tool we had. we are willing to dip do that toolbox and do what needs to be done. as a minority, we have very few rights and the u.s. congress. whenever rights is to put pressure and heat on the majority. that is what we will do next week in their districts. we will keep doing it until we get the vote that we deserve. mark: you feel that you have public opinion on your side, and that there is a motion about recent events. what is the threshold for not going on a more standard route and doing what you all did last night, using civil disobedience to disrupt the house floor? when is that appropriate, compared to the normal tactics? rael we tried to discharge petition:. we have a hundred 80 members on the discharge petition. we have tried hearings. we have tried all of the usual

and customary routes to get a vote. all of those routes have been closed off to us, despite the fact that 80-90% of american people support this bill. we try to bipartisanship and has not worked. for republicans put us in the position of breaking to courtroom -- republicans put us in the position of breaking the courtroom. this bill is a greater good. deocrum and did something that had not been done in a long time. to does not occur that having set this president, that a day will come when republicans will look back to this day and say, i remember when democrats did this when i thought their cause was righteous, and will do that to their ends? rep. israel: that is their right if they feel mistreated. i respect that and support it.

when democrats were in the majority, i cannot think of a any instancey where we refused to have any hearing on this bill. paul ryan was so afraid of the bill he left washington early last night. we were supposed to be in session until tomorrow. on wednesday night, he said we are getting out of town. when you have that kind of resistance, you have to use nontraditional recourse. that is that we did last night. mark: you did get a vote in committee, right? rep. israel: on the king-thompson bill, no. they would not allow this bill to advance, despite the fact that it has 111 cosponsors and a hundred 80 on the discharge position. mark: in the end, what is your attitude toward speaker ryan's attitude that he portrayed in his press conference? rep. israel: i sympathize with him. this is what john boehner went

through. i think paul ryan wants to do the right thing. i think he agrees with the 75% of the nra members that supported this bill. but he is a captive of a small number of groups in his caucus that he thinks may topple him if he demonstrates some bipartisanship. just like john boehner, paul ryan showed that he is ineffective and as a result, had to literally get his caucus to escape lateral -- escape capitol hill. mark: thank you very much for joining us. when we come back, brexit for dinner. we will see what that taste like after this. ♪ . .

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>> today is the day you can vote on britain's future in europe. i think britain will be better and stronger if we stay in europe. today is the day, so get out and vote.

primethat was british minister david cameron on snapchat. he was urging the brits to go out and vote and remained in the eu. the polls are closed. an online survey which asked u.k. citizens how they voted, -- it shows 52% voted remain. this is just one poll and these are not official results, so you should take it with a big pinch of salt. here to talk about the brexit referendum again is john metals weight and vonnie quinn, anchor of bloomberg markets. day today ishe asymmetry. how so? markets, it is an asymmetric outcome. if it does happen to become a leave vote, which could very much happen. we have just seen the polls

close. it would be a very asymmetric decisions for markets. rally thata starting would probably all be erased. that ific in the sense you vote to leave, you are gone and if you vote to stay, you can still leave in the future. i think the fall in the fall in sterling would be much higher. maybe another 10 or $.20 on top of that. it would be a huge thing and currency traders are waiting in mild terror in cases happens. people are sleeping in their offices. do you think the financial markets implications would be bad if they leave? guest: yes.

you would expect the pound to go down -- it's just under 1.50 at the moment. happen,leave were to people are saying 1.15. that's a seismic change. terms where billions are bet on a few dimes difference, that's a huge deal. : not only because of short-term speculation and bearish bets on sterling, but longer term, you are talking about huge implications for british trade and british headquartered companies. what would be the regulations for them? a morgan stanley analyst said today of coarse they would move their headquarters to dublin or frankfurt. if your organization employs an irish person, that's one thing they have to think about. mark: how emotional a vote has it been not just today but in

the run-up compared up to other british elections? guest: it was getting emotional cox was murdered. but then it came down again. for some people, britain leaving the european union is one of the rate causes of their lives. maybe they are fed up with the regulation and want to take back their sovereignty. other people for less honorable reasons, they don't like immigrants or whatever. but a lot of people in the conservative party thought this was the big single thing written has done wrong in the past 20 or 30 years, so it is a single issue passion. it's like having a referendum on abortion in america. for some people, it matters in honestly. mark: how has that manifested on television and in discussion? fury rows passion and and rows, as i was saying the other day, it rose and rose and then we have the murder of jo

cox and it changed the rhetoric. david cameron, his future depends wholly on this. sought in theso sense of who campaigned with whom. you have david cameron and jeremy corbyn. donald trump like and hillary clinton to pitch on one issue. you would never see that in the course of a normal election cycle. guest: they made very odd bedfellows. the passions that have been stirred up in this are not unique to britain. they are all across europe and love western democracies with a fear of immigration, protectionism, isolationism. if the remain vote wins that those will subside? they have been on the rise.

cap on those a things or would it still be a bubble in a dangerous way? guest: unless remain wins by a cameron cann, then say we have sold this and put it to bed. if it is a narrow margin, people will say it was due to a horrible murder, otherwise we might have -- we might have run. fury aboutfrumpy and immigration -- those issues are not going away. there are lessons were the americans. on the remain side, people are worried about a terrorist incident. the murder seems to have switched people the other way. people can get very angry about these things but when they are confronted in that last moment, they seem, if these exit polls are even a little bit correct, people seem to think i don't want to try the unknown and that's something if i was donald trump, i would look at.

: also the idea that you have many years of uncertainty and would not immediately have an exit for you have to invoke article 50 of the lisbon treaty. and then other eu leaders are deciding her fate because it's two years of negotiations and you are not in the room with those leaders. if leave turns out to win, what happens tomorrow morning? vonnie: next week, eu leaders meet and david cameron probably has a hasty meeting with his cabinet members and decides what to do. he is probably out of a job at that point. and the markets would be in turmoil at that point. that's where it starts affecting the world economy in those things because in the background, the past few days, markets have begun to recover because people have begun to breathe a recite -- breathe a sigh of relief.

i believe it is somewhat close to a lehman moment or one of those things that could upset a lot of other things. britain would still be a member of the eu into a vote was taken to withdraw. guest: you would sit there and think it is going to collapse in value. vonnie: and central bankers have their alarms set very early. they have all said they would be there in case of a liquidity moment. i'm: vonnie quinn -- praying for all of your vast real estate holdings both in london and in the countryside. stay with us for the latest on this huge story. up next, ted cruz's campaign manager and michael caputo. to us on then radio radio in washington, d c. we will be right back. ♪

isk: our next guest tonight the former campaign manager for ted cruz and here in the studio, michael caputo, former adviser to the trump campaign who resigned earlier this week after firinged celebrating the of trump's campaign manager. they are both fans of the program. despite leaving the campaign, your publict is posture on whether you are a trump man? his speech yesterday took a big step forward and today, his position on judges makes a

stark reaction of what this campaign will be about and what the results mean for america. howi'm waiting to see donald conducts the campaign and earns our vote. you hear that from a conservative republican -- how do you feel about the challenge for the trump campaign? guest: i think there are a lot of people who are waiting for a few more points on this line to call it a trend. am confident we will see whole different kind of campaign after the decision is made on monday. i believe he is putting up the structure he has always wanted to put up and i think donald trump will get the campaign he deserves and skeptics will serve to see this is something he can get behind. the may fundraising numbers were very bad. on the ground am a very weak.

mr. trump says he doesn't care about eight or data analytics. do youh of that correlate? it's about where this campaign is going forward. we saw the news yesterday that mr. trump broke most records for online fundraising. you guys did good online as well $3 it is tremendous -- million in 24 hours and he has never used that list for. democrats that are be ready for a $20 million amount online fundraising turn from his list and i think the mechanics of , theaising, events internal processes that need to be put in place are now in place and the decisions that were made are moving some of the wood that was in the way we will see more success in fundraising. on the ground, you'll see a lot

more hiring. there are people being considered with the decisions on monday in those hires will happen. expect fromngs you a traditional campaign will be put up from here forward. you are a big fan of data, targeting, ground game and leading-edge campaign techniques. i know you are on the outside, but as an observer of the trump campaign and the statements it has made and what we know from the reporting and mr. trump's own assertions, how worried are you about the state of the campaign? is that a campaign in a state of crisis, as it looks to some republican operatives? guest: i would be remiss that without data, they would kick my but anyway and that is on top was raising $93 million, which was a record for republican primaries getting 8 million votes and mr. trump has a way to

control the news cycle. they have to get going right now. what this boils down to is data and analytics and ground equates to about a point in a half, depending on how the democrats are doing it and the democrats are clearly doing well because they have one so many campaigns within the margin of error. that means the ground game made a difference. job.nc has done a good it is a generic model, so they need to make it trump specific. in the last you days, for what has been six and a half weeks of tough stuff for the trump campaign, he is still in the margin of air or up in the places that he needs to be an doing better in places than you anticipate in places like pennsylvania. there is time to catch up, but they have to catch up. mark: smartest pick for vice

president? guest: tom cotton. guest: anybody besides newt gingrich. mark: the smartest thing the clinton campaign is doing is? guest: keeping the pressure on donald trump. i think they will start getting some pushback. guest: i think they're on ground mechanics is what you see right now is that they are doing the best. mark: keynote speaker at the convention? that's hard to say. i wish i could see jack kemp up there speaking. mark: go with somebody alive, if you would. to rally the want conservatives and put a stamp on the party and take us into a general election, i think ted cruz you have a bigger role in the convention. standby. we are going to talk let the cleveland convention and whether there will be more excitement there than usual right after this.

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john: we are back with the captain of ted cruz's campaign and a former advisor to donald trump. passyre in your advisor working hard out of cleveland ohio, getting ready for the convention. give a sense of how appeared to campaign was for the possibility of a significant challenge to mr. trump's nomination. at thethe trump office convention has been preparing for a load of chicanery. they have an expecting something. we are hopeful it's not going to

happen but the communications team we have put in place are army veterans and combat veterans, solid communicators with a lot of experience, more veterans than on any other team in politics and i will tell you, our floor operations team is going to be stellar. anyone not going to be to compare it to in recent times. if someone wants to play game in cleveland, they better bring it on. you were preparing to be one of those chicanery end-users when we thought there would be a contested convention. what is your sense of the degree of energy, organization, motivation of those who would tell like to try to dump trump? is some think there there. i think the last six weeks has put this in motion and given it energy.

depending on how the campaign progresses in the next three weeks will be determinative of how much energy there is. essentially, republicans want to win and when we see what has happened in the last x weeks to we are concerned. when i talk to people about this, it's probably 50% more organized, disciplined, better funded then you would hope and probably 25% less than you would fear. there are some talented people involved and they have some money. wonposture is donald trump the nomination and is going to be the nominee. if other things happen, that is out of our control. we are not in talks with the effort, but in my estimation, trump could put that away in the next three weeks. why isn't senator cruz on the trump train? guest: it was a very aggressive campaign for a year -- there was an aggressive

campaign against carson. is it personal? you say republicans want to win and donald trump is going to be the nominee. what is senator cruz waiting for? there are 130 eight days left, so a lot of water can pass under the bridge. we were campaigning about the direction of the country and conservative values and we had a strong conversation for over a year. stockk it's ok to take and see how the campaign works out and have the trunk campaign win over our vote and put everyone in the same wagon full of -- same wagon. mark: donald trump said jeb bush and ted cruz were behind some of these things. guest: ted cruz was the only one who requested a different room. who denied it? guest: the convention did.

would you say that you personally denied it? guest: i would tweeted, if i did. this thing peters out with a strong and positive campaign to the important, distilled messages that donald trump knows very well. you are either for change or you are for more of the same eight more years of barack obama. i think you saw some of that in the speech yesterday. the conference calls trying to gin up the dumped trunk movement and talking about 400 people being on the call. 280 stayed on for less than a minute. that must be the same information that you got where we requested a meeting room. i would know if we did and we did not. who made the request?

guest: it came from the cruise effort. it was the same day that his father shot jfk. mark: who's the second most likely republican nominee? guest: i don't think there is one. i think trump is our nominee and i think he has never two to put all of us in the same wagon. you said the dump trump movement was 50% more organized than you would have hoped. so it is a real thing. i think everyone assumes the reason he has not endorsed donald trump as he wants to keep his options open and if that movement does gel are you saying there is no truth to that all? we suited up, got in the race and one a dozen states and put it on the field every single

day. in the jungle with a knife and artistes waiting for the next opportunity to strike. he's just taking some time and there are others who are doing the same thing. i think it is important that the conservative values that he campaigned on are very important to him. i'm sure the two of them will get in a room and discuss their differences and we will see what comes out of that meeting. it hasn't happened but i think it will take that to have any kind of conversation moving forward. thank you both for coming on and we will be right back. ♪

mark: nothing more fun than waiting for election results and they will be coming in soon and into the night. you can always go to bloomberg politics.com and read the latest. there is a business week magazine exclusive interview with barack obama. the president had lots to say about lots of stuff, some about his family, some about the economy. check it out. tvn: watch bloomberg coverage of the brexit results. it is important and we are going to cover it better than anyone. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

betty: you are watching a special coverage of britain decides -- history unfolding before our very eyes. we wait for the results of one of the most important votes in british and european history. will britain stay in the european union or break the relationship that has lasted more than four decades? it is 11 p.m. in london and the polls have been closed for over an hour. ad weathered through and train delays to show up at voting stations. unlike in the general election, there will be no official exit polls tonight. 52%reporting a poll that have chosen to stay while 48% want to leave. the pound in the meantime, climbing above 1.50 for the first time since december. we will bring you all the latest developments this hour. we will