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tv   Bloomberg Best  Bloomberg  June 26, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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coverage of the brexit. we're taking you from london to new york to hong kong. the existential crisis, britain's labour party unravels. another crucial election, this one in spain. we will have the latest from the dreaded. >> mark cuban weighs in on brexit. >> let's get a check on the headlines. mark: secretary say john kerry is going to london for talks about the future of the european union. kerry spoke to reporters. kerry: the most important thing is that all of us as
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leaders work together to provide as much continuity and stability as we can for the marketplace to understand that there are ways to minimize disruption. there are ways to smartly move ahead. to protect the values and interests that we share. mark: he's expected to the white house's message that the special relationship between united states and the united kingdom will not change. an israeli official said prime minister benjamin netanyahu will make the announcement tomorrow. it will clear the way for israel to sell natural gas to turkey. presumptive democratic nominee hillary clinton marched in the
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gay pride parade in new york city. the celebration started on a somber note with a moment of silence for the victims of the terror attack in orlando. today's event had unprecedented levels of security. hillary clinton holds a slim lead over donald trump in several battleground states. according to a cbs news poll. in florida and mrs. clinton is by threemr. trump points. in wisconsin she is ahead by five points. she has just a one point lead over trump in colorado. in north carolina she leads by two points.
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betty: the labour party is sinking into crisis, facing a wave of resignations from top members of parliament. have all quit.s after jeremy corbyn fired hillary ben. a second independence referendum is back on the table. i floated the idea she could block the uk's exit from the european union. if we thought the weekend was going to bring stability, it certainly didn't. the chaos only increased. sayingmy corbyn is a that he regrets the resignations. he will reshape his team in the next 24 hours. he said he won't betray the trust of supporters.
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he said he will stand again as labour party leader. he said we have to respect the vote for breakfast that was taken. cabinet members have resigned and this follows hillary ben being fired after calling on jeremy corbyn to quit. this party will have a seat at the table when the establishment sits down to work out what sort of relationship it wants with the eu. there are calls for a snap election. a popular labor leader could have a chance to be the next prime minister. partyot just the labour that is in turmoil. it is u.k. politics in general. resigned asn has prime minister.
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the campaign to succeed cameron is underway. boris johnson the former mayor of london will declare his candidacy next week. said he has no plans to call a snap election if he wins. >> was the state of play going forward? >> a lot of eu leaders are recognizing that david cameron can't immediately activate article 50 which would start those two years of negotiations while we've got this political crisis happening in the u.k.. the german chancellor is hosting french and italian leaders. they will meet ahead of the rest of the group meeting on tuesday.
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in terms of what we will hear the big issue is that it is hard to see where these negotiations are going to go when the eu at the moment doesn't know who he is negotiating with. is calling for a second referendum on independence for scotland. possibilitybe a that brexit will be approved in edinburgh. betty: one of the markets saying? the pound is continuing its slide. that's the million-dollar question. stirling is down to $1.34.
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betty: thank you. david: what does brexit mean for continental europe? what countries are most vulnerable? deutsche bank's chief international economist joins us here in new york. what is the timetable for this going to be? >> this is an incredible mess. we don't know how long this is going to take in the united kingdom. we don't know how different countries are going to react. the political processes playing out. this is a political crisis, not a financial crisis. we need to figure out what
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europe wants and where it wants to go. how do you think this is going to spillover. new ideas coming in other countries. that on its own is something that is very unclear which countries will decide that. this is something that now will take months and potentially even longer. the question of course is how long will this cloud hangover markets. not only in europe but also the u.s.. we used to have an environment where we thought we understood the rules the game in various countries. now we have ripped up those roles and we have a whole new tapestry of ideas that potentially could go down many different routes. we just don't know what scenario
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is going to happen. it's not that the economy is at a standstill the same way we were with lehman brothers. do we have a level playing field across industries? that becomes very important. betty: is there some sort of economic answer here. >> european central bank is watching and wait-and-see what happens with the economic data. central banks need to do something about liquidity. if the financial markets are functioning that is good news that is the silver lining here. they have functioned relatively ok since friday.
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even if they are plunging. maybe spreads are widening in some places. david: thank you. ; much more ahead on our special brexit coverage. betty: tomorrow will surely be another busy day of trading. markets will be opening in the hours ahead. we'll go live to hong kong. ♪
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david: welcome back to our special brexit coverage. betty: asian trading about to get underway. missed out on all those actions on friday. how are we set up? haidi: we didn't miss out when it comes to the selloff across regional equities. remarkable surge in the end that we've seen. week this of the japanese yen would be at 106 relative to the dollar. you have to be wondering what will happen next. 20%, one of the
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biggest gainers of the major currency. this is creating quite a headache for policymakers in fact heading for that strongest point since 1973. we are getting very close to unwinding all the positive impact of the japanese yen of the past three years of japanese economics. unprecedented levels of stimulus. the concern now is going into a brand-new trading week with a rally that is not over. investors are flocking to save havens. the median was actually at 124. analysts including those at hbc called the japanese yen at to 95 by the end of the year. we could be at that level within weeks.
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david: what are we hearing about the bank of japan and possible interventions? haidi: speculation about just how much pain policymakers can take. they have already done a remarkable amount of stimulus efforts to get to where they are. the japanese yen is going to put even more pressure on that inflation figure. making exports less competitive. he stopped short of commenting on whether that would take place in the form of the unilateral optionor the preferred of a coordinated response with g7 counterparts. he said he will be monitoring the impact on to financial markets.
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weekend we heard a report in the domestic newspaper that they are considering measures including the possibility of unilateral action in the currency markets. if thed take place japanese yen jumps again abruptly. the g7 collaboration would be the preferred option. but we will wait to see if there is more action coming from the bank of japan in the monday session. betty: outside of brexit what we need to watch out for in asian trading? haidi: will there be any response at of china?
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we had another report saying that the bank of china had just met a week before the u.k. referendum saying that a repeat of last years turmoil in the markets must be avoided. both the u.s. and chinese equities. it comes in pretty bad sign of stability is what thereafter. the pressure is on for the pboc to allow the currency to weaken. but that does that too much that capital outflows are likely to speed up again. david: thank you. betty: deutsche bank's chief international economist is with us again. what is going on in the united states? aside from that stomach turning 600 point drop in the dow jones average on friday. will it have a lasting impact?
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is an extremely important question for investors to think about. it is very important for the u.k.. europe. it is less important in the u.s.. the key question for u.s. investors is to think about what we be talking about in a few weeks time. the expectation is that i assembled the going up. nonfarm payrolls are coming out. another strong number. there will be a july meeting of the federal open market committee. maybe the brexit issue is going to hang around u.s. markets for a little while but we will eventually go back to talking about u.s. fundamentals. numbers so that we should be focusing too much on them. will hundred, jobs make the difference?
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the whole tone of what you see in the headlines on your bloomberg screen will have less and less to do with brexit. we need to think about the psychology of financial markets in the situation. david: how big a risk is contagion? look at what happened to the bank stocks on friday. that the whole political landscape is open and we see political repercussions. across borders. imports and exports are only 10% of gdp. in the u.k. is morally 30%. for many european countries it is 50%. relativelystates is not impacted by the brexit
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issue. it is more about how do we feel about the future the markets. the impact on u.s. gdp will be limited. betty: now is barely a 15%. >> that reflects something very important. u.s. assets in particular u.s. treasuries are big safe haven at the moment. if you are worried about europe, you will want to invest in the united states. pushing the whole yield curve down further out. i'm not exposed to that risk in europe is so difficult to quantify. what are policymakers
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here in the united states thing about doing? we don't have a freeze on the financial situation. it means that the federal reserve is on hold for longer there's no doubt about it. not so much in the next nonfarm payrolls of the following one. to find out that this is not having a significant negative impact on the u.s. economy. we need to see how big this confidence effect is. how negative that impact is going to be on the hiring decisions in the u.s.. betty: thank you. said the upside of brexit is being ignored. there you go.
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david: coming up we get mark cuban's take on the brexit issue. absoluten: uncertainty. that is what the market hates. very manipulative situation right now. the political aspects on both sides of the ocean and how corporations deal with those circumstances are going to affect going forward in the united kingdom. and also in our election. ♪ david cameron: this country requires fresh leadership. ♪
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betty: now to look at what we are likely to see tomorrow. >> where is the money going. we know where it is going. out of stocks anything risky. we are seeing buying of treasuries and buying of gold. that gold rally is likely to continue. there are number of different reasons for this. gold is traditionally a safe haven when people are worried about the global economy. that were forecasting probably won't see a federal reserve interest rate increase this year which makes gold look more attractive. we might see some weakness in the dollar going forward. forecast where the .edian
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david: are people going to be looking at equities tomorrow? we definitely are seeing after the big drop that there is some interest in looking at stocks around the globe in specific sectors. betty: thank you. anotherlikely to be turbulent day in the financial markets. still ahead, spain goes to the polls for the second time in six months. that is next in our special coverage of brexit. ♪
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betty: from bloomberg world headquarters, you are watching and listening to bloomberg's special sunday exits coverage. i'm betty liu. david: let's get a check of the headlines.
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mark crumpton has it at the news desk. mark: thank you. u.s. reaction to the brexit vote continues today. appearing on abc, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said people in the u.k. just got tired of being told what to do. >> i talked to the british who made the decision. you can read about the frustration of having ceded to the bureaucrats at brussels so much authority. you see the same thing here. we have had a regulatory rampage over the last six years. a lot of the people on these boards and commissions are pursuing policies that we haven't passed in congress. mark: senator mcconnell also discussed the special relationship the u.k. has of the u.s., saying "the only other open bilateral relationship in the world that is anywhere near as close would be our relationship with israel." a new poll shows support for
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donald trump has plunged. "the washington post"/abc nws ews survey has him trailing significantly. other organizations found him leading 46%-40 4%. 4%. the labor secretary was asked about his qualifications. >> is donald trump qualified the president? the answer is no. he's a chaos candidate. the difference between secretary clinton and donald trump in terms of temperament, judgment, values, couldn't be more stark. they're on display once again over the last two weeks, whether it's the brexit aftermath where he talks about his record system, or orlando where he is dividing the u.s. 2/3 of people surveyed said he is unqualified.
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says he's voting for hillary clinton. he says republicans must choose the country over the gop's presumptive nominee. he says "a trump presidency is unthinkable." the united nations says more than 64,000 syrian refugees stuck in the desert since jordan sealed its borders have no access to food or water. action after a suicide attack near one of the encampments. jordan has indicated any early lifting of the closure is unlikely, and says international agencies must find alternative routes for getting aide to refugees. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. i'm mark crumpton; this is bloomberg. david: thanks. the question at top of mind is what happens next.
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david cameron is expected to address parliament on monday while european leaders meet in berlin and john kerry is heading to europe, meeting leaders in london and brussels. let's go to nara check for more -- nejra cehic. there's tons of disunity in london and in brussels. nejra: it's interesting to what the next step will be, because logically, the next step would be for the u.k. to trigger article 50 and start the negotiations on leaving the eu, but other governments in europe aren't expecting david cameron to do that when he meets other eu leaders on tuesday in brussels. what they will want to some kind of plan is to what happens next. it's difficult to know what that plan will be, given that there is a political crisis at the moment, not just in government with david cameron having resigned as prime minister, but also with the opposition. we've had 11 members resign
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from the shadow cabinet, and a senior labor lawmaker fired after he called on jeremy corbyn to quit. jeremy corbyn has said he's not going to stand down, but with the u.k. and political crisis, it is very much in a week negotiating position at the moment. not only that, but it's not clear who's going to be negotiating with the eu in the event these negotiations need to take place. in terms of where europe stands, on saturday, we were getting the feel from europe that they want to the u.k. to start this exit as soon as possible, but the tone has softened somewhat since then. on the lamarcus chief of staff urging a timeout, saying that u.k. leaders need to austin consider the applications. betty: it sounds so chaotic. were there no contingency plans made it all beforehand?
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nejra: chaotic is exactly what it is. it doesn't look like there are. the leaf campaign got what it wanted, that british voters voted 52%-48% to leave the eu, and has now indicated that they don't have a plan in place as to what to do next. david cameron has resigned, passing the baton to who knows. it looks at the moment like there isn't a contingency. where we have seen contingency is from central banks globally. that is where we have seen some plans input some place to stop complete chaos in the financial system, although as we know, it didn't stop the chaos and markets on friday. we are continuing to see the extending sterling, its losses after it hit its lowest since 1985 on friday and had its biggest drop on record. david: thank you very much. nejra cehic.
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president obama hard for britain to reject a brexit, warning that leaving could threaten transatlantic commerce. you will see how real that threat is. official under president carter -- good to have you. had of the referendum, consensus seemed to be that the u.k. would remain, and you said the markets are rarely wrong with you look at big political events. what did the markets get wrong? >> well, they got wrong the outcome of the vote. david: [laughter] and how did that happen? >> good question. people echoany some version of what i said before the vote, which was essentially that they have never seen markets on a matter that markets cared about get it so
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wrong. wrong will bet debated for a long time. i think the superficial answer the final polls and thought they reflected the polls,outcome, and the at least the last ones, which showed remain ahead, were not bo rne out by the final vote. answer,he superficial but i am sure we will learn more to explain it further. it would surprise me that investors would commit the very large amounts they did, whether it was the currency markets are equity markets, just on the basis of polls, but we will find out. betty: we will indeed. we are going to be parsing through what's happened for many months and years to come. i'll give you another situation
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-- the "guardian" just released, companiesf u.k. will move out of the country because of brexit." does that seem overblown? >> well, that whole equation is a complicated one. whether -- that number sounds high to me, but one of the things we have all begun to focus on since the vote is the real, day-to-day impact from a is this point of view of brit ain leaving the european union, and i have noticed that for automakers who produce in the u.k. and sell in europe, once britain has left, it will now subject to two sense of safety standards; the uk's standards and eu standards. that may not be attractive to
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u.k. auto producers. they can't move their production overnight, we know that, but that type of thing may prove to be quite damaging to britain. whofinancial institutions have all talked publicly in the run-up to the vote about how they might have to redeployed numbers of people from london to the continent in order to serve the continent if britain exited i think are probably going to do that. but whether it is as much as 1/5, i think that is high. betty: what about yours? what about evercore? >> i don't think it will have any impact on us in terms of deploying personnel, but of course a larger question would be what impact it has on things and a merger volume equities trading volume, too soon to know.
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it won't change the way we deploy our personnel. david: roger altman, founder and chairman of evercore. a pretty toat building maybe the new normal -- how do you ground investment on the? -- on that? >> for some it is a plus, because volatility, depending on what had investor you are, represents opportunity. for other investors, at the more difficult environment. my only point was finance is increasingly driving global events, whether it's commodity markets like oil, whether it's elections, and so forth, in certainly corporations in terms of short-term pressures. david: was that the case here or was politics doing the opposite? >> i think the role of finance in the world, and we are now seeing all the fallout from brexit and the implications of financial markets weakening
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further, finances are playing a bigger role in world events, and finance is inherently volatile. the predictability of these events has diminished as the role of finance has grown. betty: roger, before we let you go, is this going to help trump? >> not in my judgment, no. betty: you would say that, roger. >> not for the obvious reason. yes, i support secretary clinton, but look at the spanish election results just today. we just learned what they were. as i understand it, the current government prevailed and expanded its seats. in other words, a pro-establishment result. i think the message from brexit to american voters is a message of anxiety, and the importance of a study and experienced hand,
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and i think that will be seen as more important following brexit that it might have otherwise been. so no, i don't think will help mr. trump, and i know the election is quite far off, but he his not faring well. i don't think this helps them. -- helps him. and his comments about the degree to which it benefits his -- they're strange. david: thank you very much. roger altman. we will go to madrid to talk about the spanish election and donald trump and the latest polling. e'lly: still ahead, w look at the u.k. impact on the british startup seeking venture capital money, the partner at softek will be our guest, next. ♪
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david: welcome to our audience on bloomberg television, on radio. this is continuing special coverage of the brexit fallout. betty: let's get out market update with julie hyman, who joins us with more on what to expect overnight and tomorrow. julie: i want to look back to look forward, if i may. we were talking about political groups that might benefit or that might need areas of refuge. one of the groups i have been looking at is the utility group. this is one of the very few sectors in the u.s. that rose on friday; here you have the philadelphia index and it saw a gain of 4/10 of 1%. if you look at the top performers, utilities have some
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benefits in the eyes of investors; they tended to be defensive, in other words, there is demand for power no matter what, some of you look at top performers from friday, you can see that. they also do well when bond yields fell, and they certainly did on friday, both because of the dividend yield competition and the relatively high debt they carry. we have a look at some of those top friday reformers from the u.s. markets, companies that rose on friday, cms energy, excel, it's remarkable that we had these gamins in such a tough market. but there are utilities that we think of as very regional u.s. companies,, that are exposed to what is happening in the u.k.. ppl is one of the. 55% of its earnings come from u.k. utilities, specifically from ppl shares. just a quick look at the
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lookingg, i'm basically at the rise we have seen in the s&p utilities, as well as s&p telecoms, which often do well. the 10 year yield has gone down a big way this year, and those have been the groups that have been the beneficiaries. incidentally, the best-performing groups this year within the s&p 500. david: thank you very much. julie hyman at the markets. london is often considered the center of venture capital in europe, but how long will it hang onto the title after the brexit vote? let's bring in a partner at softek. i know you spend a lot of your career in london before moving to san francisco. 40% of tech startups in europe are based in london. the follow will be that those tech startups will be starting elsewhere? >> it's a great question. right now, the overriding mood is conservancy. companies whothat were considering moving to london have talent all over
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europe, so companies starting in estonia, in spain or greece, are making that move to london, now may consider going solar else. we have already seen places like berlin and dublin beginning to gain ground. this is the opportunity for them to pull ahead. betty: was this happening even before the vote last week? >> you know, there has certainly been a growth in startups as a whole in europe. london was still seeing as the center of what was going on. lots of companies started in berlin would move to london, because that is where the big venture capitals where. the next question is, is the startups are going elsewhere, where did the vcs go? david: you started your career developing software, and in that line of work, we have seen such a move toward globalization.
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in the sphere of software development, does this change anything? >> two things. you have the means of developing software, in one of the reasons london was such a great place to do it was because of access to talent from all over europe that could come freely. seen up until now that people using amazon to deploy probably haveould been deploying it in the dublin data center. the question is if the u.k. becomes a standalone, sovereign state, will there have to be new epicenters? anyone out of dublin, will they no longer be able to serve london? andy, if things happen -- our guest earlier said that in a few weeks, we aren't going to be talking about brexit anymore. that will go down a headline list. with all of these moves, will they be seen as mature?
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>> again, the point about uncertainty is the biggest one. we don't know what's going to happen. anyone who has been keeping an eye on the paper today are looking at the blog sphere knows there are tons of theories about how even though the referendum has passed, it may not happen. i think a lot of companies are in wait and see mode. thank you. betty: coming up, news on hillary clinton in the 2016 front. details next,. you are listening to our special brexit coverage on bloomberg radio and television. ♪
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betty: welcome back to special brexit coverage. we're live on bloomberg television and radio, and we have breaking news out of the elections from spain. election, ofat
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fresh boost for the establishment party against and yesterday groups. roger altman a few moments ago, saying that it means this brexit win does not go all the way. david: almost as soon as the referendum was announced, the turn toward spain -- here we are. betty: and there are brand-new pulls in the race for the white house, all of them showing hillary clinton with a lead over donald trump, of the strength of her lead depends on which poll you are looking at. has her with a 12 point edge among registered voters. trump is within five points in nbc. for more, we turn to our washington bureau chief, megan murphy. which one do we believe? megan: good question. these polls show what the big his campaign-
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manager resigned, controversy over comments about a judge of hispanic heritage. if you believe the 12 point p oll, which showed a similar gap to ours, it shows that it really hurt him between widening the gap. pulling on this has been all over the map. we are heading into the convention, we haven't had that major new cycle of vp's, debates. either way you slice it, both polls show him with high unfavorables, high questions among voters about whether he's the right man to be presidential, particularly as we see global politics swirl as we see now. headlines crossing the terminal -- hillary clinton speaking at a conference in indianapolis, about the second amendment, that she can respect it and still make a reforms. bob talking about brexit,
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corker speaking on a sunday show about brexit creates anticipation and excitement for the u.s. donald trump speaking in scotland. how close are those parallels, when we look at what happened to the u k and what we are seeing in the u.s.? megan: the parallels are close if you look at the coalition that donald trump will be looking to assemble, if he will be a real threat to hillary clinton. if you look at the kind of people who supported brexit, the northeast of england, the cities that feel like they are less vested in the future, sunderland, newcastle, industrial centers of the u.k., where people feel disaffected, economically dislocated -- in the vote, the only places that won remain were london and scotland, and the rest of the country tilted towards leave. with donald trump, he will be looking on the exact same kind of economic dislocation, the white working-class, people who
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have seen wage stagnation hurt them, people who don't feel like they are connected with america in terms of issues like immigration. the parallels are close. it's going to be whether or not he can build the coalition. betty: megan, thank you so much. megan murphy. david: that's it for this hour of our sunday brexit special here on bloomberg television. a big day tomorrow. john kerry in london, david cameron speaking before parliament. we will be covering it here. betty: we will have our eyes toward the european counterparts. erik schatzker is up next, continuing our live coverage, just after this break. ♪
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erik: welcome. it has been a wild weekend and the aftermath of the uk's invoked to leave the european union. in new york, it is hardly a typical sunday evening. currency has been trading for
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about three hours. stocks have just opened in new zealand and exchanges in japan will follow in a few hours. we expect to hear from christine lagarde, managing director of the imf. you're watching special coverage of the brexit aftermath from new york city. i am erik schatzker. here is what is ahead. britain's two main political parties are in turmoil following the unexpected vote to exit the eu. we will tell you what it means for the next prime minister. spanish voters went to the polls in an unprecedented repeat election. the president got the support she needs to break the political chaos. mark cuban, the outspoken billionaire businessman has an opinion on almost everything and you will find out what he has to say about brexit. we bring

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