tv The Pulse Bloomberg June 30, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EDT
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52-48% vote is not -- an important facet whether it is leave or don't leave. the u.k. government so there is plenty of time to finding a solution that is less harmful for the european countries, but if they cannot find an agreement, we have to -- it means greater uncertainty. >> what do you think? you have a view of source, what you think is priced into markets? which of those outcomes is being priced in? >> markets are pricing in weaker local economies. that clear to me corporations are going to be investing less for the future, because they do not know the futures here at they do not know how they should be investing for the future. overall, this is not a good outcome.
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what financial markets need is certainty. what we have learned -- >> we are going to get two years of uncertainty. >> that is correct. i do believe there is going to be a negative element to the global markets. we do have a new prime minister and u.k. who focuses on growth as a result of the -- in the united states, and we have a new president, they focus on fiscal policy and growth initiatives did if we have more -- growth initiatives. it will allow central banks to take the foot off the pedal, to start seeing a rising interest rate again which would help savers, investors. then we will not have that stability. we know outcomes from government , they are still twiddling their thumbs and advocating their responsibility to central bankers.
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i do believe we have a real problem ahead. francine: that was the blackrock ceo. here are our top headlines. johnson -- the fight for the top job is underway as mark carney tries to soothe markets at just soothe markets. goldmans, bank of america getting the green light from regulators. deutsche bank plucks the test again. .losing books oils strongest quarter since 2009. the yuan is the worst on record. the small banner -- small matter of brexit. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse." live from europeans headquarters here in london. coming up we have a great
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exclusive interview. he is claudio costamagna. first thing's first. it is 9:02 in london. that means the market has been open for one hour. banks under pressure in europe. some antalya and banks are -- some italian banks are under pressure. -- in general,et european shares are retreating. of course, it is all about what central banks will do. investors will continue to look for an indication of the next step from the u.k. after the path of separation. let's get to bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. makeup to resume a and boris johnson will today make their pitches to secede desk to succeed david cameron. may lead to johnson among tory
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party members. that is according to a poll. governorof england mark carney is stepping up to face the brexit crisis and he will speak to members of the media and finance industry later in a message of reinsurance -- reassurance. united overseas bank, southeast asia's third-largest bank by assets says it will hold lows for per just for property purchases in london due to the uncertainty of the brexit vote. they will assess to determine when it will reinstate its offering.perty loan italy is set to double the amount it is putting into its bank refuge fund. fundaper said the atlantic will be recapitalized with as much as 5 billion euros. it says the fund has spent half of its initial or .3 billion euros to support the country's
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troubled lenders. we will be talking to demand at the very center of the italian banking system. he is claudio costamagna, head of the country's estate lender. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. this is bloomberg. francine: european union leaders have called for an orderly british withdrawal from the block. they spoke in brussels after taking the step of meeting with out the u.k. for the first time. >> before we receive official announcements of u.k. wishing to leave, no negotiations can take place. >> we have made a quest to clear that access to the zynga markets requires acceptance of all freedoms, including the freedom of movement. there will be no signal markets
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a la carte. the markets to get ready to host some transactions which will no longer be held in the united kingdom. withine: let's get more jones hayden. i did they agree on the next step forward. jones: they try to put a plan in place. this was the 27 eu leaders meeting here in brussels without the u.k.. an unprecedented meeting of the first time since the u.k. joined the eu, to have such a meeting. they cannot do a lot in terms of detail but they are trying have an orderly way forward. they are trying to keep things calm in the market or restore calm to the market. it is a challenge it woodhead george soros -- we had
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billionaire george soros. the refugee crisis is part of the thing that caused brexit. francine: we are hearing some michaelm the bbc, that government is to run a challenge . he is wanting to become premier by becoming the head of the tory party. he is challenging theresa may and morrison johnson. there is controversy surrounding michael. i don't know how you feel it from over there but he said scotland should be of the set up its position on eu membership. i think the problem here is the eu leaders feel like at this point they need to be talking with the u.k. they are very happy that
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scotland voted to stay in the eu, so that is a positive thing. they want to keep those ties, those relations going. it is possible that somewhere down the road, that could come to something else. if scotland were to have another referendum or of something else were to happen. we are seeing how the u.k. is dealing with the process of triggering an article 50 which is going to start the process of withdrawing from the eu. there are a lot of politics involved and all of this. leaders are saying it is a little too early to be talking directly to scotland about exactly what things are going to look like. francine: thank you so much, jones hayden. we'll get back to jones throughout the day. it is all about political turmoil and the politics here in with michael gold saying he will run. guest,,lcome our first
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didier carmignac. brexit has reinforced the consequences of that shift. thank you as always. the problem with brexit is it puts the spotlight on the weak spots of the economy, whether it .e banks or other countries overall, how much volatility are you expecting and markets? is referred to, this is sky.- in a blue this is an event that takes place within a trend basically, david cameron campaign did not work because he was too optimistic. he could convince u.k. investors that the euro economy was strong enough that it was working, making efforts to remain attached to it.
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therefore, it is creating a situation where europe and germany for that matter is going to have to decide whether they want to continue that enough. one of the key reasons why growth in europe is so slow is because germany has been very keen to impose austerity measures and because it has been very keen to keep budget surplus. francine: the germans,, i feel like i need to defend the germans. what they don't want is for people to breach the rules and then asked for money which they are the only ones who can disperse it. i know george soros has talked on the fact. let's talk about the markets we do not know what we are digging -- we do not know what we are dealing with. how do i get?
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didier: the situation is different in the u.k. next like the rest of the world is in a situation which is weaker economy which might get weaker. we should get to quarters recession in the u.k.. it will have a diluted impact on emergingt of europe markets -- europe. the emerging markets, in asia we have zero impact. it looks like an event which is going to rock global growth. francine: but it won't. not even if there is a policy mistake? --ier: what will happen is it will weaken a little bit further. [indiscernible] the extent to which policymakers will react and make sure this is a reasonably smooth slow down and transition. all i am saying is it is a huge political event. [indiscernible]
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i think it might be a mistake to consider it is all doom and gloom for the rest of the world. francine: didier saint-georges stays with us. plenty coming up including john major, david cameron. none of them are favorites to lead the conservative party. who will win the race? as the u.k. financial services industry comes to terms with brexit, we will be live at the conference. what does the equity selloff mean for vulnerable banks? we speak to one of the host important men in italic -- and -- y, claudio ♪
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francine: this is "the pulse." we had breaking news. the south african regulators have approved the -- deal. shares are halted. they reversed as they had the green light. we will bring you the latest of these conditions and on further consolidation in this industry. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. here's nejra cehic. nejra: officials have cleared dozens of u.s. banks to boost shares -- shareholders payouts. to rigorous for some subsidiary's -- even morgan
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stanley -- conditional permission to boost its dividend or 3%. japan's factory output fell 2.3% in may, a much bigger decline than expected and a new sign that the world largest -- third world -- the world's third-largest economy is far from recovery. to concerns that abenomics and boj stimulus are not working. companyesident says the plans to bring more product to china. camilla sobek spoke to bloomberg where one in 10 residents are said to be diabetic. we are eager to make sure these products can be brought to the market, especially within a chronic disease because there is a strong need. new products come to china a personally five years or more later than the eu and u.s. there is a delay that could benefit chinese patients.
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nejra: that is the bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: who will be the uk's next prime minister? the bbc has reported that michael goves is to throw his hat into the race to succeed david cameron. boris johnson has been the favorite for some time. in 40 years, the party has never picked the front rihanna -- the front runner. david cameron and others were all outsiders. favorite --y is now theresa may is now favorite just ahead of boris johnson. with didierre saint-georges. do you feel you are now a political analyst? forget your day-to-day job, how important is it that you have people on the ground trying to
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understand who can become the next prime minister? what kind of deal we have with the eu? didier: if i had to be a political analyst, i would've started by not listening to the bet. the trying to do the job is risky. i would argue that the risk analysis that in the u.k. there is risk. -- a risk to have an opinion on who the next prime ministers going to be. the situation in the u.k. is foreign investor. the u.k. manager -- u.k. manages to muddle through. some of the sectors will be protected. it manages to get a deal with the european union which is reasonable. the downside is you get a recession which would last more than one quarter and some stronglyecoming
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affected. from an investor's standpoint, the perspective of the political aree, i think the risk asymmetrical to the u.k. markets. francine: do you put more money into the u.k.? are you pulling money out? it seems the banks are taking the brunt of the fallout. didier: neither in the u.k. or europe. what we have is investments in the pharma sector and esther zeneca. -- and astrazeneca. they are not cyclical. i have no problem holding those type of u.k. stocks. this type of allocation has to be toward the sectors which are not subject to this big asymmetric risk on economy growth. francine: do you have any sovereign bonds. it seems it is a brave new world
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. it is a crazy world that we have gotten used to. suspect it cannot go that much lower. the levels where they are at has not created the damage. the banking system is not going to be able to stomach this kind of curve for much longer. in europe, this situation is troublesome. number one, because the europe curve is much lighter than the u.s. before the remember crisis, you have the same number of banks in the u.s. as you had in europe. now you have twice as many in europe. as the u.s., it is structured, the whole banking sector, because -- making sector, so the banks are stronger. italy, is a case in point we have to many banks, too many small banks.
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you have a third of more than one trillion euros. these low long-term rates do not need to go much lower down to already be a key issue for the banking sector. francine: as promised, this is a chart i want to show you. the u.k. ten-year and purple. in white, it is japan. japan have been going lower. didier saint-georges stays with us. we will be talking currencies and a little bit about the japanese equities. how the week is been for the u.k. banks. we'll bring you coverage from hsbc's mr.nce where flynt is due to speak. ♪
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francine: welcome back. let's keep with the u.k. theme. -- the eu single markets in the wake of last week's exit vote. let's get more with stephanie baker, didier st. george. stephanie, thank you for joining us. did ea, thank you for sticking around. he have any authority left? what is he likely to say? stephanie: if he is convening an emergency meeting which includes executives from across industries.
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easyjet, techrom sector budget -- tech sector representatives. not all of them back a remain vote for the referendum. he is expected to call into an inner circle his most trusted advisors could he is going to seek to reassure them. they are going to seek to present their case for the best possible deal. francine: which is what? ,t seems that from brussels they cannot have access to the sigel market. stephanie: those two things are most concerning in their mind. they want access to the single market they want reassurances that eu's that should the eu nationalists have the right to stay. francine: d.c. this shifting, the power? do you think people will move outside london in european countries?
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didier: it is all about the european passport. if indeed they have the passport -- the passport is canceled, that means if you were in at -- if you worry u.s. bank, you have a big risk. it is possible that some of those international financial services companies might start to establish businesses in paris, frankfurt, just in case in two or three years from now, they are doing it from lending will not be effective. francine: our companies concerned about attracting talents? about these are issues for the workers? stephanie go it ranges from a tracking skilled workers to more skilled and construction industries are more concerned. voicing their worries that infrastructure projects might be put on hold as a result of the crisis.
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francine: welcome to "the pulse." live from bloomberg's european headquarters could just getting breaking news out of the u.k. economy. we have to be careful because the u.k. economy grew during the first quarter. it is unrevised from a previous estimate. economists telling us there is a data pre-brexit and post exit. this is data pre-brexit. the economy growing 0.4% in the first quarter. it is having an impact on pound. traders think it doesn't reflect anything to come.
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let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news with nejra cehic. nejra: the u.k. secretary ishael gove announced he running. theresa may and morrison have also put their names forward. that is johnson according to a poll. the bank of england governor mark carney is stepping up to face the brexit crisis. he will speak to members of the media and finance industry later and a message of reassurance that cap's days of market turmoil. united overseas banks, southeast asia's third-largest bank iss says it will temporarily halt lows for property purchases in london due to the uncertainty caused by the brexit vote. linda says it is monitoring the market environment closely and will assess to determine when it
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will reinstate its property loan office. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists in more than 120 countries. i am nejra cehic. francine: market down this morning. let's head to the bloomberg with mark barton. basically these markets are trying to look for direction. mark: little changed for sterling after the gdp report, .4%. the big question is to what extent will the economy slow and the current quarter? the expectations are this year, we will see a recession post-brexit. this is the bloomberg pound index. it is rising for the third consecutive day. it fell 2.9% on monday. in rose tuesday, wednesday and it is up on thursday. the total five-day decline, 9.3% 9.3%.
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on monday, we were sitting on declines, 11%. the is a chart showing differential between the u.k. ten-year and the u.s. 10 year. wind the most -- it widened the most since 2000. the widest since 2000. u.k. bonds are heading toward a 12% ain't in the first half. double the return of u.s. treasuries. that is on the concern that britain will enter a recession will require -- recession which will require further easing from the ecb. the u.s. ten-year is only 12 basis points from a record low. there has been a lot of talk about the ftse 100 yesterday rebounding from its post exit losses. losses.brexit
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i thought we will look at the ftse from friday and some of the other stocks. the ftse has risen 6.3% and the two days through wednesday. it recouped all of its post-brexit losses. you can see the pipeline is pretty much zero cents friday -- the white line is pretty much zero cents friday. 30 of ftse 100 companies are setting on double-digit losses. the silver gold producer is up by 27%. , u.k. centricbs companies which have lost a third of their value since friday. that post and perspective this retracement we have seen the ftse. the ftse 250 which is a very u.k. centered connector is a down by a percent since friday. francine: barton. i want to show you two pieces of
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what london is talking. flint --led -- we have theresa may is about to give a speech. she is the contender to win the tory party. the past a lot of people saying it doesn't mean because she is a favorite that will get -- that she will get the party leadership. we will bring you that speech as soon as she does it. it is the first time we will hear her address across this nation since they voted for brexit last thursday. there is the city u.k. conference. the uk's vote to leave the eu has sent banking stocks into a tailspin. outlook.nged its trip on investable in the coming months. italian lenders were already in trouble.
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brexit could make things worse. the government is considering injecting 40 billion euros into the nation's banks. the atlantic rescue fund could see 5 billion euros added to his coffer. let's get more from our guest, claudio costamagna. -- with 410 billion euros. great to have you join the studio. we were not signing on having so much news on italian banks. how frail do you think italy's banks are? claudio: the situation is not easy and we should step back and see why we are where we are. for reasons why we are where we are. two reasons are general for banks everywhere. the interest rate department which takes interest margin close to zero.
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the second one is the impact -- the business model of banks is changing, especially retail banks. italian banks are basically retail banks. francine: a lot of investors say that italian banks have problems. reasons ise italian that italy is the only country -- of state aid after the lehman crisis. we have had a very long recession. banks.s impacted the whiche huge stop of npl's is lower than what everybody else talk about because everyone talks about 200 billion. yet to see the net figure because it is the difference. francine: i am going to cut you off because theresa may is taking to the stage. let's have a listen of the home
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secretary who wants to be prime minister. >> i want to start by paying tribute to the prime minister. it is easy to forget how far the conservative party and our country have come since david cameron was first elected leader in 2005. thanks to david, we were elected into government for the first time in 18 years, we have a majority in the house of commons for the first time in 23 years. in difficult times, we stabilize deficitomy, reduced the and helped more people into work than ever before. david's legacy is about more than the economic rescue mission we undertook. some of our biggest achievements including the introduction of same-sex marriage and taking the lowest paid out of income tax altogether.
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-- all about the pursuit of social justice. we have shown that when the conservatives have an open, inclusive, one nation agenda for social reform, we win elections and we change the country for the better. i want to thank david on behalf of our party for his public service and for his significant achievement as prime minister. it has been a privilege to serve in his cabinet. [applause] ms. may: i have invited you here today to announce my candidacy to become leader of the conservative party and prime minister of the united kingdom. i do so for three clear reasons. first, following last week's
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referendum, our country needs strong proven leadership to d ofr us through this perio uncertainty and to negotiate the best terms between us and the european union. we need leadership to unite our party and our country. with the labour party tearing itself to pieces and devices -- in scotland and wales, it is nothing less than the patriotic duty to unite and govern in the best interest of the whole country. newd, we need a bold positive vision for the future of our country, a vision of a country that works not only for a privileged few but for everyone of us. i will turn to those three issues in just a moment. normalnow, this is not a leadership election held in normal circumstances. i wanted to talk first about the immediate need for political
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certainty and economic confidence following the referendum. whether you support it leave or remain in the referendum campaign, and whether you predicted the sky would fall in, uncertainty mean we that needs to be faced. the country needs strong leadership to give confidence to investors to keep the economy moving and to keep people in work. the fundamentals of the economy are strong and will continue to be strong as we negotiate our departure from the eu. economic growth has been solid, employment is at a record high and a budget deficit has been reduced at the time of the banking crisis to a predicted 3% this year. our financial system is well-capitalized and resilient. the capital requirements of the biggest banks and the liquid assets mean they have the
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possibility to keep on lending to businesses and families. lessovernors swift action friday means the bank of england is ready to provide additional funds and liquidity should our financial institutions needed. he has also made clear that the banks have assessed conditions and will take further actions. -- and bankngland of england has taken the right actions to maintain confidence. the chancellor has said he will support the bank if other -- i want to eat use this opportunity to make several things clear. first, brexit means brexit. the campaign was fought, the vote was held, the turnout was high and the public gave their verdict. there must the no attempt to remain inside the eu and no second referendum.
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the country voted to leave the european union and it is the duty of the government to make sure we do just that. there shall be no general election until 2020. -- noshould be a normal emergency budget. there should be no decision to invoke article 50 until the british negotiating strategy is agreed and clear, which meets article 50 should not be invoked before the end of this year. third, we should make clear that for the foreseeable future, there is no change in britain's trading relationship with the eu or other markets. until a new legal agreement is reached with the eu, which will not happen for some time, the legal status of british nationals living or working europe will not change and neither will the status of eu nationals in britain. vital that the
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government continues with its intention to reduce public spending and cut the budget deficit, we should no longer seek to reduce the budget surplus by the end of parliament. if before 2020 there is a choice between spending, more borrowing and -- the priority must be to avoid tax increases since they will disrupt employment. these are all measures that will be taken by conservative government i lead. they offer stability and certainty to consumers, employers and investors for the foreseeable future. i want to reassure foreign governments come international companies that we are the same outward looking and globally minded and big thinking country we have always been. for business and welcoming to foreign talents. negotiating the
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best possible terms as we leave the year pin be crucial to our future. that is going to require strong proven leadership. i intend in the coming weeks to set out in more details my proposed negotiating principles. for now i want to make two important points about the way we conduct this negotiation. first, nobody should for themselves that this process will be brief or straightforward . regardless of the time it takes to negotiate the initial deal, it is going to take several years to disentangle our laws, rules from the brussels machinery. that means it is going to require significant expertise and a consistent approach. i will therefore create a new government department responsible for conducting britain's negotiations with the eu and for supporting the rest of european work.
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that department will be led by senior secretary of state. i will make sure the position is taken by a member of parliament who campaigned for britain to leave. thesecond point is while ability to trade with eu membership is vital to our prosperity, there is clearly no mandate for a deal that involves accepting the free movement of people. now is not the time for me to set up my full negotiating principles. i want to be clear as we conduct our negotiations, it must be priority to allow british companies to trade with the signal market in good and -- also to regain more controls of the numbers of people who are coming here from europe. any attempt to wriggle out of that, especially from leadership candidates who campaigned to leave the eu by focusing on immigration will be unacceptable to the public. [applause] may: withdrawal will be
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complex. it will involve hard work. it means we need a prime minister who is a tough negotiator and ready to do the job from day one. ben then, it will not profitable to do what is right for britain to get the best deal we can for our country unless we are united as a party and government. that is why i believe so strongly that there needs to be a proper contest with the leader elected by the whole party with a proper mandate and no correlation by backroom deals. we just emerged from a bruising and awesome, divisive campaign. throughout i made clear -- staying inside the eu, because of the economic risk of leaving, the importance of cooperation on security matters and respect to
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the union. i also said the sky would not fall and if we left. i was open to the cost and the benefits and the risk and the opportunities of eu membership. the decision has been made. let's make most of the opportunities and get out into the world and help british firms to do business all around the globe. us is noin front of longer about deciding whether we should leave or remain, the country has spoken. the united kingdom will leave the eu. the job is about rignet -- is about uniting the party, country, securing the union and negotiating the best deal for britain. as you can see from some of my ,arly supporters is in here under my leadership, the conservative party will be able to come back together and govern
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, not just in the interest of the 17 million leave the voters or 60 million remain voters or -- but in the interest of the whole country. this is a crucial point. of course we need to unite the party and the country. of course we need to negotiate the best deal we can with europe . if we are going to govern in the interest of the whole country, cannot allow the government to be defined exclusively by the process of our withdrawal of the eu. because britain still needs a government that is capable of delivering a program of serious social reform and realizing a vision of a country that truly works for everyone. the evidence of this need has been known to us for a long time. if you are born poor, you will die nine years earlier than others. if you are black, you're treated more harshly by the criminal justice system. if you are a white working-class boy, you're less likely in any bios to go to university.
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if you're at it state school, your is less dense you're less likely to reach the top of -- you are less likely to reach the -- if you are young, you will find it harder than ever to afford your own home. these are all burning injustices . as i did with the misuse of the stop and search and modern slavery, i am determined to fight against them. the mission to make this country that works for everyone goes further than fighting for these injustices it if you're from a working-class family, life is just much harder than many people in politics realized. you have a job. you do not always have job security. you have your own home but you worry about mortgage rates. you can just about manage what you worry about the cost of living and the quality of local
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school because there is no other choice. inely, not everybody westminster understands what it's like to live like this. some need to be told that what the government does is not a game, it is a series business that has real consequences for people's lives. [applause] may: -- francine: that is to resume -- that is theresa may launching her conservative party campaign. we hope to have a new premise to who will the leader of the conservative party, at least by september so they can possibly -- they can start renegotiating with the european union. the political turmoil, one of the focuses of the day. the italian banks. another big focus -- claudio costamagna, this is the italian
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-- he is extremely active with the italian banking system. before theresa may started talking, we would talk about the frailty of the italian banks. if you were to grade them, what is it like now? are they a b minus? b -- i woulds a say a b. there are also some regional local banks which are doing well. as a whole, of course, it is frail. i think there are ways to try and solve it. it.it did not help before that we were in a good path. atlanta was a good signal. it wasn't big enough to solve all of the problems but i don't think we need something to solve all of the problems immediately. we don't have to illuminate them completely to solve the problem
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could we need to create the market. -- mainly because of different input -- the difference in price is too big because of how to cook -- how difficult italian issues. the italian banks are well collateralized. how much time we need to get them collateral? nobody knows the fact that today's ago the house approved a decree that the government would shorten the period quite substantially. they could have an impact on pricing. francine: you are probably in discussion in deciding the role. any future, action money or some kind of state aid. what you feel the best plan echo -- best plan? claudio: we are not the one who are going to solve the problem.
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spent, ween a pretty are in an active participant. if the plan would play a bigger role, -- for sure we are going to play a role. we are doing a lot of different things for italian banks and nobody talks about them. doing, we what we are are trying to bring more companies to the capital markets. italy is very much dependent on banks. much more than other european countries. we have to expand the capital markets. we have to expand -- we are doing a lot of things in that direction. it takes time. francine: people focus on the banks which is why this needs to be resolved before you can do work that is more substantial. --
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claudio: it is very difficult. i am not a part of the discussion. on.n't know what is going we will see it clearly the current rules are very strict. the space of the mover is quite limited. we will deal with the outcome. francine: we will get you back in. just one quick thing on italian banks. what happens to the banks if we don't have a concrete -- and the next six months? claudio: there are a couple of examples which might be dangerous, but overall the system is solid. i am not worried. francine: thank you so much for joining us. we will get you back when the political turmoil in the k is a little bit -- the u.k. is a little more dealt with. stay with bloomberg. surveillance is up next. tom keene will join me from new york. we'll talk about political
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turmoil and the tory leadership. conversationhe with sir howard davies, the chairman of rbs. we have to look at the markets. yesterday, we had a little bit of a relief rally. markets did not open to badly. a little bit of a reversal because people are starting to question what central banks can do. they are awaiting action. they are awaiting action from the eu. jean-claude yunker made it clear saying there will be no formal renegotiations. investors are try to see what his next. this is the picture for the dax. the cac 40 gaining a touch. the region's benchmark is trying to recover half of its post-brexit losses. $4 trillion has been wiped off on friday. now we have lost $2 trillion
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francine: who will inherit brexit? theresa may and boris johnson face-off. marketsney calling the in need of direction. bank of america, city -- lose payouts after getting green lights from majors. --abank flunk the feds test deutsche bank flunks the fed test. he wants worst on record and a little matter called brexit
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