tv Daybreak Asia Bloomberg July 10, 2016 7:00pm-9:01pm EDT
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♪ sydney, 9:00 a.m. in the first major market to open across the region. how australia reacts to the news that the ruling coalition will form the next government. this is "daybreak asia". ♪ right,a's price is inflation eases earlier, june cpi jumps more than expected. >> markets shrugged off australia's credit rating worries, while malcolm turnbull
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claims an election victory. focus turns to shinzo obvious stimulus plan. be looking at to new orders ahead of the air show. i amming to you live, yvonne man. >> i am betty liu. talking about flying high, what a day it was for the u.s. market on friday, closing at the highs of the session after the jobs report shows that may be may was just a blip. we will be looking for confirmation. yvonne: 287 thousand blue at out of the water. a blowoutat was
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number. we wrapped up the week relatively risk off. see new zealand stocks, expecting a dovish call on a rate cut, expecting the central bank to hold. because of the housing boom in new zealand and australia, a could spill over to the economy. and australia, some modest gains after the prime and mr. declared victory in australia's election. the final tally still not done. let's go to japan. pop inexpecting a shares, up 2.5% today after a weakening in the yen. still at that 100 handle. ordersexpecting machine from a, expecting a turnaround after that of 11% slide in april.
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looka look at how things on wall street on friday. betty: we were basically and risk on rally mode. the dow closing up 250 points, the higher the session. it was interesting because all this talk after that prior jobs report, that the fed will not raise rates this year, that creeped back into the dialogue on friday given this jobs report , that maybe things are not as bad in the u.s. as originally thought. i have a feeling we will keep seesawing back-and-forth. that's right. people are thinking no rate cut this year. after this job number, september could be back on the table. data in asia. this l shaped recovery seems to be plowing on as inflation eased
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for a six month in a row. what are we saying here? factory price deflation, consistent for 52 consecutive months, but the drop in prices was the smallest since 2014, so that is continually being ease. we have seen factory price deflation easing for six straight months, now 2.6% down for factory gate prices in june. it was 2.8% in may. downlast year, it was 5.9% for factory gate prices for four straight months, august through november. that is easing and helping policymakers. the recovery, commodity prices have rebounded. we expect the deflation to persist, but moderate, through next year. they will have
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inflation by 2018, so another year or so of deflation. >> consumer price inflation easing in june, but how is the extreme weather hitting china going to affect prices? consumer price inflation has been benign and china. it rose 1.9% year over year. also easing a bit month over month, cheaper vegetable prices, fruits, eggs helping, but the extreme weather not only do we have extreme flooding in the south, but also this typhoon that hit on saturday. that is likely to exacerbate troubles with transportation and in the fields in those areas, so that will likely see an uptick in food prices in the next couple of months. >> thank you. australian stocks set for gains on monday after malcolm turnbull
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finally claimed election victory more than one week after the polls have closed. for more, i want to get over to paul allen in sydney. boats are still being counted, but the result, they look pretty clear now. >> it does. this strain of electoral commission will not declare a final tally until july 15. as we stand, the government has been returned with a slim majority. if we look at the ruling coalition, 76 seats leading. the opposition labor party on 69. it is possible the government may get to 77 seats. held a pressull conference to celebrate a victory. here is what he had to say. earlier today, bill shorten called me and congratulated me on the reelection as prime minister. i think bill for that call.
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as you mentioned, it took more than one week to get here. malcolm turnbull said he discussed the possibility of having electronic voting in the future. >> malcolm turnbull has gotten the victory, but in for a tough three years, right? >> he is. , so is not a big majority he has been talking to independence and cross benches, among them one mp who looks after a huge electorate about the size of texas in the far north of the country. he said you try running a government with one photo up your sleeve. it is worth pointing out that the former prime minister between 2010-2013 had see rowboats up their sleeve. regardless of that, a weak government is a recipe for policy drift and wider deficits as well. weak government, s&p putting
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australia on negative credit watch last week here in it made plenty of headlines, but it seems like the market shrugged it off. >> you compare it to the rest of the world, australia still looks good. ae u.s. and u.k. had downgrade, but investors to like this bonds. debt, negative yields as well. currency, equity, and bond markets all unconcerned. >> thank you. let's get a check of first word headlines. japanese prime minister shinzo abi has won a convincing victory in the upper house election. party hadl democratic 53 of the 121 seats, but his coalition partner had 13. abe may be able to piece together a two thirds majority, but says the economy remains top priority. takata mayrbag maker
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be reaching out to 20 possible buyers. firms are set to have expressed interest along with a chinese company. they are working on restructuring as it faces billion dollars in cuts due to recalls. in the u.s., president obama warned americans protesting against police violence to remain respectful or risk undermining their message. said rallies held in many u.s. cities over the weekend were legitimate, but called any violence against officers a reprehensible crime. last week's police killings of two black men were followed by the murder of five dallas police by a 25 your old army veteran. hewlett packard enterprises considering a sale of some software assets as part of a plan to streamline its operations. sources tell bloomberg the
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company is looking to divest some acquisitions made over the last decade, including mercury interactive. a sales process is in the early stages and may not result in any deals. trade ministers meeting wrapped up in shanghai with a warning that global cross-border investment may drop as much as 15% this year. comes as the wto and world bank forecasting sluggish growth. >> the global g-20 trade minister said they see global cross-border investment dropping between 10-15% this year. if you look at the environment we are in, the world bank said they cut the outlook for global fromo two point 4%, down 2.9% back in january, so the second half of the year they are thinking there is a lot more downside pressure on the world
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economy as a whole. the wto also projected sluggish sales last week globally for july and august this year. the ministershink are looking at a slower situation overall. they also pledged to increase efforts to bolster global trade and want to try to sign a trade facilitation agreement this year. they are paving the way for the g-20 meeting in september. also looking at excess capacity and particular steel. this has been an issue in particular for china. askingu.s. has been china to make cuts. china defended itself, saying it has already made cuts worth millions of dollars across the industry, where as other countries are still just talking about it.
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g-20 trades of the ministers trying to be a bit saying theiatory, meeting took a step in the right direction and looked at addressing the root causes of the excess of capacity. caused atural problems negative impact on markets, but also said it is a global issue that requires a collective response of they should work together to try to find a solution to this issue. >> thank you so much. still ahead on "daybreak asia", boeing flying high with $3.5 billion of plane orders, which carriers are putting up the money? week's economic data from asia and discussing what risks the market needs to look out for. coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the latest first word headlines. german chancellor angela merkel expects that next uk prime minister will honor the brexit vote and start talks on leaving the eu. the german chancellor told a network that she is dealing with reality and expects the withdrawal application to be filed once the new prime minister is chosen. she said there is no urgent need for eu reform, saying it was purely a british decision to leave. india tata steel searching for a .artner after the brexit vote it is in prillaman are talks with several firms over a possible joint venture. reviewing bids on its u.k. assets after at least four companies pulled out after the referendum. the u.k. government says it will help with the sale as it looks to protect 15,000 jobs that may be at stake. are the football
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champions of europe after defeating france 1-0 in extra time in the final in paris. the visitors said to overcome the loss of kris jenner rinaldo to a first-half injury. a substitute broke the deadlock in portugal held on to win. it was their first win over france since 1975. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analyst in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> thank you. a look at some big events we are following this week. tuesday brings arbitration on disputed waters in the south china sea, an international court in the hague is to rule on the philippines claimed that -- on the islands. leaders meet in beijing for the 18th bilateral summit on tuesday. the premier is the host with the
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donald tusk and young claude yunker representing the eu. the talks will focus on political and economic relations, particularly with the fallout from the brexit decision. that will dominate the talks. the bank of korea announces its latest rate decision on thursday. economists expected to hold at the low of one .25% after a surprise cut last month with the central bank governors signaling the chance of further easing to come. lateston friday, the economic numbers may show china's growth slowing further. economists expect gdp to have risen 6.6% compared with 6.7% in the prior three months. let's focus in on the key data. we just outlined for you the big key points that investors will be watching and asia.
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i have to imagine the gdp numbers and china will be pretty important. what are you expecting? >> gdp absolutely will be crucial. we are expecting a slowdown down to 6.5% in china, so softer than where most people are penciling their numbers. the key thing for china is that while we don't subscribe to the view that there is an imminent economic or financial catastrophe brewing, growth looks like it will continue to moderate gradually over an extended time, and data this week are likely to show that as well. it seems like the disaster is no longer brewing for now in the u.s. people are now saying the fed might continue to hike interest rates. is the fed becoming less of a factor and away when you look out at the world, and in particular in asia? >> i think part of what you said
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is right. certainly the u.s. economy still looks ok. it doesn't look fantastic. maybe jobs growth has slowed a underlying activity terms, it looks like the u.s. is doing 2% or so, which is a decent outcome, but the fed does it's planning a rate hike. in have the election november, said december may be is about the earliest, but the reality is that the longer we get evidence which says the global economy has not: into a sinkhole -- has not fallen into do well,e, equities emerging markets do ok, some of the commodity currencies do ok. betty: does the fed factor in more volatility at all or does it become less of a factor in
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that sense? i think after february and happened atppens -- the g-20 meeting in february, the fed and the u.s. treasury decided they did not want u.s. policy being a driver of volatility in the markets. that is when the fed started to take a more cautious tone about the degree of rate hikes they would deliver. that volatility now is coming from economic and politics in many other places -- places, not necessarily from the fed. betty: you mentioned brexit and the fallout and how long the fallout will continue. when you mention 6.5% forecast for gdp, what does this mean for the pboc. where we see an easing buys or should they be conserving their policy space? >> i think they probably do have a it of and easing bias.
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they have tried to manage this balance between not encouraging excessive credit growth, but dealing with the declining fx reserves, but also the retrenchment in some areas of the economy in terms of willingness to invest. i think the balance is starting to ship back in favor of monetary easing, even an interest rate cut to go with the depreciating currency. you mentioned that. the pboc taking advantage of the brexit fallout to depreciate the renminbi a little more. can this calm continue? markets have been shrugging off this trend. the experience from the last two phases of depreciation is the playbook seems china depreciates until market start to care, then they stop. that doesn't seem like a sustainable strategy, but no
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evidence that china has moved away from that. that chinawhich mean can probably continue with a bit more depreciation. one is that it is a less of a surprise all the time. there's nobody who does not expect a bit of renminbi depreciation. that more of the outflows of china are in renminbi rather than foreign currency. even though you're getting some capital account adjustment, it's not destabilizing for the exchange rate or china's reserves. i think you get a bit more depreciation. at some point it does cause a risk event in some assess -- asset markets in asia, but we want seed that establish and we saw in december, january, or august last year. betty: we will leave it there. next, slow and steady, that's the story of the world economy over the past six years, so how long do we keep drifting along?
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>> welcome back. you are watching "daybreak asia" . i am betty liu in new york. an hour awaye half from the open in japan, korea, and australia. global growth has endured has hurdles, buts and an expansion between 2% and 3%, well not a disaster, no means spectacular. it looks like that modest growth will continue in the wake of brexit. is this a bit underwhelming? there is still some resilience
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in the last couple of years, but what is your take? >> we are stuck in a slow grind recovery around the world after central banks have maxed out policy. we see the problems in the dragging bad banks down growth, issues in the u.s., the feeling the recovery might be topping out there, one of the slowest postwar places -- paces of all the recoveries. asia is still the fastest growing region come of it dragged by locomotive he prices -- lower commodity prices. we see the u.s., it has had a long period of growth. tolabor market continues move in the right direction, underlying indicators looking good. arehe fed wanted to, there grounds to tighten, but the u.s. economy will not be enough to drive global growth.
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we need to see a pickup and eurozone and traction for china to get out of this 2% to 3% growth range we are stuck in. >> what about brexit? should we have expected this will hit global growth harder? >> brexit continues to be a concern. territoryuncharted because we don't know how significant the impacts will be. we have to see how it plays out in the u.k. economy, then the eurozone and european union. it might spill over to the u.s., some estimates it will take .2 it will take .25% off of gdp. the world economy did not need brexit, but it does not appear to be a major disaster. it is a question of waiting and seeing how it plays out. >> much more ahead. airbus set to seal
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>> data 7:30 p.m. sunday here in new york. the weekend is about to and -- end for all of us. the market closing on a jubilant note. it is in the morning and hong kong, asia about to start the week. we are 30 minutes away from trade in japan, south korea, and australia. i'm betty liu. happy sunday. yvonne: and i'm yvonne man. you are watching "daybreak asia." betty: china -- china deflation reboundwed, and that a
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in property sales and higher commodity prices. consumer inflation slowed for a second month in june, rising 1.9% on the year. cpi below the 3% charge in may. yvonne: australian stocks look set for days this morning, after prime minister malcolm turnbull finally claimed victory more than a week after polls closed. are stillstal votes being counted. not clear if his liberal national coalition has enough seats to form the majority government. betty: g-20 trade ministers have more -- wind there could be a decline of up to 15% in global cross-border investment this year, after meeting on sunday in shanghai. pledgedepresentatives to improve international trade and urged other wto members to do likewise. yvonne: japanese prime minister shinzo abe has won a convincing victory in the upper house elections. he may now be able to piece together a two thirds majority
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needed to press ahead with plans to revise the pacifist constitution. however, he says the economy remains top priority. the theme of parliament should be to bring forward our economy, accelerate the speed, and a breakaway away from inflation. i think this is what people are asking for. i think the election results convey this. i would like to work on joining up a supplemental budget with a comprehensive, yet bold plan. yvonne: the economy is the top priority, hopefully that is the now focusing on his fiscal stimulus package. are we going to see that take shape soon? betty: that's right. what can he do to fight deflation even more >>i know they had a little bit of good news on that. but a lot of that is when it comes to the yen, and how much it has risen. we often talk, and the whole reason we are doing this show,
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is the are figuring out what happens in asia and how it versa. the u.s. and vice this chart on the bloomberg perfectly illustrates that point. the white lighting is how far yields have come down on a 10 year treasury. the blue line often -- also shows 10 year yield for japanese government bond. both are headed in the same direction, but it's almost as if we are trying to close the gap here. some economists are saying those lines might merge at some point, which is quite scary to think about. whichld on the 10 year, is kind of unheard of just about a year ago. that is actually looking more and more possible, which is crazy here, thinking about that for the u.s. yvonne: given the fact that you see u.s. stocks actually ending close of the -- to the record highs as well, it doesn't make sense. but a lot of analysts saying, the 40 year yield, expect that
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to go negative. that could be the next thing as we look forward. let's look for it how asian markets are expected to start the week. let's go to julia sally for that. reporter: we are seeing yields coming on increasing pressure. in terms of equities, it is looking pretty positive. through,s coming proving wrong. the bull markets are in charge of everything. you can see that in new zealand. the first stock market in asia to kick off trading. westpac shares listed, doing very well, up 2.6%. friday, andains on great gains coming through in the u.s. and european banking -- in the european banking sector, i should say. report ish the jobs as it was, some were saying it
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is a little bit goldilocks, not too hot, not too cold. suggestingfuturist we will see good gains in australia again, about 1.4% according to share value futures on the bloomberg, and also a pickup in japan. prime minister of a maintaining -- prime minister abe maintaining control of the parliament. looking like positive stocks, but still seeing yields under rusher. betty: burning season gets underway here in the u.s. this week after stocks briefly topped the 13 month old high on friday. has the look and -- at what is in store in the next week. reporter: all three will likely see investors very much focused on the direction question. can u.s. stocks extend friday's gain, with the s&p 500 once again within striking distance of a record close? this will also assure in the latest earnings season, kicking
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things off on monday, and banks and financial firms set to report the numbers later in the week, including j.p. morgan chase, wells fargo, citigroup and black rock. a fresh round of economic data will include figures on consumer prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment. says retail sales will likely start again in june. gains in protect consumer prices showing inflation is gradually moving toward the fed policymakers' goal. i'm su keenan, bloomberg. factorychina's distillation has eased for six months in a row, while consumer price inflation remains be nine -- benign. let's go to stephen engle. what are the implications for this? stephen: we know the chinese a company -- economy is in a slowing pattern. shaped.
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that is what it really is. these numbers show a further stabilization as deflation from the factory is starting to ease. this has been in deflation for 52 consecutive months. that is more than four years. it is much matter -- better than late last year. for six straight months, we have seen deflation at the factory gate ease at -2.6%. a rebound in property sales in china, as one of the pillars of the economy showing some strength, and also higher commodity prices. that is an underlying inflationary environment. on cpi, the night for now. 1.9%, well below the government's target of 3%. we have cheaper vegetables, cheaper fruits. prices still remain fairly high for other things, but we have
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also the typhoon that hit taiwan, hitting the industrialized and also agricultural area. we are expecting disruptions in transportation and also perhaps silage of crops. -- soilage of crops. betty: incredible footage of the flooding. do any of these numbers that you are mentioning, do they had all change pboc policy? economistslot of the we have been speaking to say they don't expect drastic changes, and definitely no major stimulus coming forward. you would think with benign inflationary environment, that they would have the scope to ease a little bit more, but unlikely because of the underlying inflationary pressures. tom from bloomberg intelligence says the easing of deflation at the factory gate is doing the
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them, in ther sense that the price environment is still rather benign at the factory. we are pretty stabilize right now overall on the economy. betty: thank you. stephen: gdp on friday. betty: indeed, that would be a big one. thank you. let's take a look at what we are following here on the bloomberg. here is haslinda. haslinda: the latest headlines. deutsche made lower the shareholder for -- shares for shareholder approval on london stock acquisitions. a decision will be reached on monday after they examine a type -- technical issue. shareholders approved the merger last week, in a near unanimous vote. north korea test fired a missile on saturday, just one day after south korea and the u.s. agreed to deploy an antimissile system in the korean peninsula by the end of the year.
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north korea has described new u.s. tensions targeting kim jong-un as a declaration of war. the missile was launched off of the east coast of north korea, says they are still early in the fight. claimed- andy murray the wimbledon tile. -- title. he is the first englishman since 1935 to win the title more than once. court crowd that the numbers make the win even more special. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 companies -- countries. i'm haslinda amin. yvonne: boeing and airbus may both be set to win multibillion-dollar deals. the aircraft makers are hoping for orders from europe to india,
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as they look to ease concerns about a slowdown. russ lynch and has more on this. what are we expecting? rosalind: we are worried about the general commercial plane. in particular, industry analysts are seeing fewer orders this year. bank of america merrill lynch put out a note saying they expect a quiet airshow. bloomberg intelligence has data on this, and says a wide body plane is slow, and orders are 7, andeaning the boeing 77 air 380, they are under extreme pressure. there's a lot of downward pricing pressure in a lot of regions. this is due to intense competition, and also the economic environment around some of the regions. betty: what kind of orders might
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be on the cards? rosalind: orders for smaller planes are actually quite strong. that could being, worth about $3.5 billion. that is that list price, keep in mind. they do get discounts when they talk to industry specialists. be 20ropa is ordering may -- 27 planes. the 737 is considered a workhorse. the next version is due to release next year. might orderpany about $1.3 billion worth of planes, including a 787. airbus is talking to some of the big players in the market, including india's airlines. it is relatively new. planes, worth 70 about $7.5 billion at this point. betty: thank you so much. we will be talking to some big
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guests from the airshow this week. boeing's ceo joins us live on monday, around 5:10 p.m. singapore time. that is 10:10 a.m. london time. at 1:40 p.m. in london, another guest from qatar airways. yvonne: those are definitely interviews to watch. next, flat -- factory gate deflation eases for a six straight month. that does not mean prices are turning a corner after four years of decline. the latest economic data one bank of america merrill lynch closes. this is bloomberg. ♪
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at state postal carriers and unions tried to resolve a dispute over pay and pensions the government insisted. progress is being made in negotiations ahead of a midnight deadline after which workers will be locked out. will notappens, they accept any new packages and mail will not be delivered until the action ends. chinese hedge funds are turning more bullish on stocks after the brexit boat. -- vote. about 76% of funds plan to add stock holdings this month, which is a jump from 50% in june. the manager cited attractive valuations, with markdowns more than 40% from the 2015 peak. and the final pricing today ahead of the much-anticipated ipo. japan's most popular instant messaging service hopes to raise as much as $1.3 billion for the dual listing in tokyo and new
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york. last week, line raise the ipo price range, despite the brexit vote.-- the company says its strong demand and market conditions was the reason. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists, and more than 120 countries. i'm haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. yvonne: with china deflation softening and prices falling for a sixth straight month, how much pressure is on the pboc? let's ask the greater economist at bank of america. when you talk about these figures, factory prices, our economists say they are actually doing a good job for them. the cpi hedging down for this month. you excited about these figures at all? >> think it's good news. pressure remained muted and therefore the pressure on the pboc to immediately act
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is pretty low. however, going for it depends on two things. one is, how much of the inflation will comprise of the upside, especially after the major flood in most parts of china. and second, -- in the north part of china. second, how much liquidity outflow that the depreciation would trigger and future. if that is continuing, that is probably adding pressure for the pboc to inject liquidity into the market. yvonne: they could provide a buffer, and liquidity back stock, but will it be strong enough to make incredible stimulus? >> the hurdle for that is pretty high. giving the first half -- how much more can they really pull , it is thistem question for, everyone. also for pboc the pressure is what if they have too much liquidity and they face a leverage problem? that would something they don't
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-- be something they don't want to look at. betty: is the stability of the that, big concern given we have not seen a huge amount of volatility? there has been some after brexit. but it seems as if the chinese economy is hedging these headwinds better than it did before. >> indeed. -- thes of the depreciation of the yuan has been notable, even after brexit. the depreciation has been more muted in rer terms. even after that, with more dollar-denominated liability in the corporate sector, i'm afraid that further depreciates against the dollar brings back into the question against whether the company would decide to wind up further against dollar bets. it so it would trigger capital outflow. stimulus, ifind of
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any out of the pboc, what kind of stimulus could we imagine to see? >> the moment, probably not very much, depreciation is primarily the approach they have been relying on. but going forward, i would say they are probably very much data dependent. capital outflow is probably more sterilization through rrr cuts or open market and the pboc will inject my liquidity. that will probably be the first thing. if that is not enough toward the end of the year, we will still likely be seeing rate cuts. yvonne: hold on a second. breaking news out of japan. machine orders actually fell 1.4% in may from the previous month. this is actually a miss, because the rise was expected. as per year on year, orders fell
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11.7% expect -- compared to expectations. let's check the yen to see if any reaction for the figures are continuing to be in negative territory. we do see the yen slightly weakening on that news. 100.69 right now. looking ahead to the japan opening in a few minutes. futures expecting a huge pop in shares. we continue to see about a 400 point pop monday morning and eight couple of moments -- in a couple of moments away. we talk about china's factory picture, we continue to see the pmi numbers on the manufacturing numbers. they look for the grim as well. >> i would say they look slightly better than the second half last year, so at least they were slightly above that level. that i think is probably something to be at least, not too worried about. at the same time, you are right. in terms of manufacturing
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related success on investment, and ip industrial production, a lot of the figures suggest there is a lot of excess capacity as a holder hang in the sector -- overhang in the sector, weighing on it. very likely, 6.6% in the ballpark. yvonne: thank you, joining us from bank of america merrill lynch. big, shinzo abe pushed a hurdle in his push to revise the passive discussed edition. we have details from tokyo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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together a twog thirds majority allowing him to press ahead with plans to revise the constitution -- revise the constitution. let's bring in our tokyo bureau chief. results, inwith the light of the machine orders we got that shows the japanese economy is still in malaise. what do these election results show us? thatk and other media say ldp and the coalition have largely increased their seats in the upper house, and with the allies, formed two thirds of what we call a supermajority needed to change and make revisions to the constitution. ldp and the allies already have two thirds in the lower house, so having this in the upper house sets the framework for any changes for the constitution. betty: and will the constitution be revised in light of this? >> that's a very good question.
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been distancing itself, from articulating support for article 10 and article nine, the pacifist element in the constitution. opinion polls have also been fairly difficult to tell, in that there is still a widespread towards revisions toward article nine in the constitution. even if abe were to push ahead with this, especially at a time when the economy is not a strong, it might be difficult to gain momentum or the backing from the country to do this. yvonne: what are the policy implications from the election, then? >> abe said yesterday as the results were coming in, that he would quickly roll out comprehensive and bold fiscal stimulus to help the economy.
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he declined to comment on the size of the package. s it will besay bigger than ¥2 trillion. economists think it will be of some help, but whether it would actually be enough to turn around the economy, i think there is still a fairly large skepticism over that. itnne: any kind of stimulus seems like it could be done in dane, given how strong -- in vain, given how strong the yen has been. >> the yen obviously is a big factor. the large manufacturers were 111,, sog a figure of clearly below that. yvonne: thank you so much from the turk you -- tokyo bureau chief. we are wrapping up after a great
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korea, in japan, responding to jobs data out of the u.s.. let's have a look at the open in asia. juliette: some good gains in japan, even though we did see inhine orders falling 1.4% may. the survey was expecting 3.2%. further contraction there, down 11.7% in may year on year. 1.8%,kkei 225 up by stronger than future suggesting. today, more strength coming through in the dollar, weakness in the yen, a positive start on the nikkei. korea, up byns in a tense of 1%, so a solid start.
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blowing itbs report out of the water on friday. we did see them a number revised down further. -- of couple of's docs stocks in australia, positive movement there, up by a third of 1%, some pullback in the crude price, some weakness coming through in energy players. just having a look at that crude 1%.e, down by 8/10 of we have seen a little bit more movement into gold, safe haven still in play. gold higher by a third of 1% in the early session. if you want to have a look at how much we are seeing go safe of course giving
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a boost to u.s. and european equities, reflected in those bond yields. year japanese bond still in negative territory, down by a third of 1%, weakness in australian bond yields as well. equities looking like a positive start to the trading week. yvonne: thank you. china's l-shaped recovery plowing on as factory gate deflation eased for a six-month in a row. steve is here with the numbers. we are seeing some easing, but we are still in negative territory. >> for a 52nd consecutive month. you can also see with factory price deflation easing so much, it was -6% in the later part of last year, so now down 2.6% in june. this is the sixth consecutive month that the factory gate deflation has eased.
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this does more good for the chinese economy than you can imagine. are less negative producer prices, meaning stronger corporate profits, more fun to loans, fun capital spending, so good news for the l-shaped recovery. why? oil prices have firmed, higher commodity prices, also a rebound in property sales in china. thiseconomists expect deflation trend to continue to ease, still in negative territory, through next year, but by 2018, a rising reducer price inflation. yvonne: we also saw inflation eased in june. now we have to contend with the weather. now, 1.9% up consumer price inflation, also may, and alson
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the earlier part of the year, 2.3%. it has come off a little bit. juneprices were up 4.5% in , eggs, fruits all lower. landfall,storm making industrial and agricultural , that could hinder transportation and damage crops, so we could see food price inflation pick up again. really benign. inflation'sderlying , so unlikely to see a rate cut. you do have this food price inflation, property prices increasing as well, also deflation easing, so again,
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bloomberg intelligence says a doneincrease in ppi has more to lower borrowing costs than six interest rate cuts. do not underestimate the easing of ppi. if we get will see that 6.6% figure for gdp on friday. thank you so much. some other stories making may bees, takata reaching out to 20 possible buyers. firms are said to have expressed interest. restructuring as it faces billions of dollars due to recalls. won a convincing victory in the upper house elections. s party has 53 of the 121
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seats. its coalition partner has 13. abe may be able to piece together a two thirds at -- two thirds majority, but says the economy remains top priority. austrian stocks look set for gains on monday after malcolm turnbull claimed election victory more than a week after polls closed. let's get overs, to paul allen in sydney. the votes are still being counted. theuple of days before final tally, but the results were clear now? paul: pretty much. leader billon shorten calling malcolm turnbull to concede defeat. the prime minister was cloud to accept and claim victory as well. if we look at the vote tally as coalition now
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leading on 76 seats, and that is more than half the seats in the there is some speculation they may even make it to 77 seats. it took a while to get here, almost eight days before the result of this election was known. andolm turnbull saying he bill shorten both discussed the possibility of electronic voting in the future. malcolm turnbull, he has gone through a lot to get here, but also in for a tough next three years, right? week when allst the uncertainty was circulating, ,e was talking to independents and he has a couple on board to help him. he said you try running a government with one vote up your sleeve, so it will be a tricky three years for the prime minister. the s&p has responded to this, the feeling that it will mean a
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lack of reform and whiter deficits. yvonne: they put australia on negative credit watch last week. it made headlines, but market seemed to shrug it off. why? concern atoo much all. you mentioned that the asx was forecast for gains. we are up at her than 1% at the moment, but i doubt that is due to a celebration of the latest triumph of democracy, more that markets don't care. all overelds falling the world, including australia, japan has a huge mountain of debt, but that is not putting off investors, so markets unconcerned by the political uncertainty here. yvonne: thank you so much. g-20 trade ministers meeting wrapped up in shanghai with a warning that global cross-border investment may drop as much as 15% this year. we are tracking all of this. wto and the world
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bank cutting their forecast for global growth. rosalind: the g-20 trade ministers said they see global trade falling between 10% to 15% this year. itsworld bank cutting forecast, said the outlook for global gdp is down to 2.4%. says business funding has weakened in advanced economies, ies are struggling with lower prices. also said that downside risks are more pronounced for the year ahead. last week, the wto projected there would be sluggish sales globally in july and august. ministers want to bolster international trade, and they said they are pledging to increase efforts to do so, trying to find an reement to facilitate world trade this year. they say they oppose
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protectionism and support setting up new investment principles that are open, transparent, and predictable. all of this paving the way ahead of the leaders meeting in september. yvonne: in terms of the g7, g-20, one big issue is steel and the overcapacity issues there, particularly in china, even though they don't say the name really. said the euey have and the u.s. have asked china to cut capacity and steel. china has the biggest deal industry in the world, so overcapacity has knock on effects for the rest of the world. china did defend itself, saying it called for cuts of millions of tons of steel capacity, whereas other countries are still talking about it. they said they are already making use to addressing this issue, but it is not that quick.
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the u.s. trade representative said the meeting took a step in the right direction, looking at the root causes of excess capacity. ae g-20 ministers said it is global issue that requires collective responses, therefore they need to work together to sort out this issue. yvonne: thank you. breaking news out of japan and atea, line setting ipo price ¥3300, the top of the range. reported they would be offering 35 million shares. we are at the very top of that range right now as we count down to this ipo this week in new york. this is a popular messaging surface -- service hoping to raise the biggest tech ipo globally this year.
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last week, they mentioned that line raised its ipo price range despite the brexit vote, so they did raise that on top of what we saw initially after delaying this ipo for some time. the company says we saw strong demand and market conditions where the reason behind hike. plenty more to come on that. take a look at what is ahead on "daybreak asia". up andket opens coming how markets are doing today. ♪
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, but called any violence against officers a reprehensible crime. last week's police killings of two black men were followed by the murder of five dallas police officers by micah johnson. a truthful and isious and respectful tone americanhelp mobilize society to bring about real change, and that is our ultimate objective. german chancellor angela merkel expects the uk prime minister will on other brexit vote and start talks. the chancellor told a network that she is dealing with theities and expects
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withdrawal application under article 50 to be filed once the new prime minister is chosen. she said there is no urgent need for eu reforms, saying it was a purely british decision to leave. tata steel searching for a partner in europe after the brexit vote it is in pulmonary talks with firms including thyssenkrupp over a possible joint venture. top the steel is reviewing bids after at least four companies pulled out after the referendum. the u.k. government says it well help as it looks to protect 15,000 jobs. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. earnings season gets underway in the u.s. this week after stocks hit a high on friday. we have a look at what is in store. on wall streetad will likely see investors very much focused on the direction question, can u.s. stocks extend
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the s&p 500ns with once again within striking distance of a record close. the week will also usher in the latest earnings season with alcoa kicking things off on monday, banks and financial firm set to report later in the week, including j.p. morgan chase, wells fargo, citigroup, and blackrock. a fresh round of economic data will include consumer prices, industrial production, and consumer sentiment. thatmists surveyed say retail sales likely rose again in june as the man picked up at merchants other than auto dealers. they also protect gains in consumer prices, showing inflation is gradually moving towards the fed policymakers goal. up next, currency traders going back to basics when it comes to testing the dollar strength. details and fx next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: breaking news on , the mostsurging 15% since march 2015, the second day sizable moves. friday because of the pokémon go, the mobile app that has topped the charts, popular in china and australia as well. the move from the consoles to the smartphone games seems to be paying off for nintendo, rising close to 19% on monday morning in tokyo. , green afteria gains helped by strong u.s. job figures on friday. traders are weighing in on the next fed rise. expect guest says we can low interest rates around the globe for a long time.
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he joins us now on set. no fed rate hikes this year? does that change with his number we saw in june? >> the number we saw on friday was the strong number, but it still seems to be slowing a bit in the u.s.. if there is one, it will be quite late, maybe next year as well, so we maintain a very low interest rate environment in the u.s. in equities, we see less market panic since the brexit fallout, but some say we are not in for the real reaction yet when it comes to that. do you still see pessimism and fixed income, oil starting to see a turnaround, will that way on stocks? i think we are not at this stage to say the bull market
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will come back. we are not seeing that yet. happening,ese things a little downside support for risk assets, but to be honest to have a bullish view on risk assets is difficult. political risk is rising everywhere, still sing deflation risk coming through, actually seeing corporate warnings not coming through yet, maybe one or , but generally speaking we are not seeing that yet. giving all these factors, it is difficult to argue for a sustainable market. yvonne: do you think safe havens continue this rally or are they in some type of breather? >> they are in overbought territory. are certainly very expensive, so it is a question of either singh
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continued inflation or inflation coming back. is are we seeing inflation come back yet? probably not. yvonne: does this change anything in your portfolio? ,e do have value on our side and after this post brags of fallout, we seem to be the beneficiaries of seeing some gains. >> in this part of the world, we still want to expose ourselves to countries where we are going to see reforms, indonesia is one of them. see they pleased to country embarking on more reforms. for example, the reason the tax , il passed in the country think we should start to see more money flowing back to the country, and as result, that should lower the cost of funding for the corporate sector. i think there should be more
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upside for this particular market. india is another one. i think we are seeing some reforms coming through. i expect more, and we will see at the end of the year we will see this nationwide -- come through. this is the scene for asia, focus on those markets or economies focused on reforms. yvonne: we are talking about how resilient that asean has been despite global uncertainty. what a lot of analysts are talking about now. are you bullish about that? they still face some obstacles. >> there are risks everywhere. if you look at the frontier markets, we are bullish on them. is of our strategies exposure to some markets like vietnam, yes. yvonne: is it to -- is it still too small as a market? it is still dominated by state
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on banks. the size is a quarter of the philippines and less than indonesia. >> the consumer sector is something back -- better to look at. you're right. the market is small. the company stocks are not that liquid, but you need to have a longer-term view. i think the cycle for vietnam is different from the core markets. also, the co-relation between vietnam and the other core markets are on the lower side. if you add a little bit more vietnam into your follow -- portfolio, that would minimize the risk. yvonne: japan? china? >> we are waiting on japan in the early part of the year. we are looking at the results coming out from the election, whether the government will come up more with stimulus measures. yvonne: with that be enough?
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>> that is the question. people try to put so much optimism on japan, faith and abenomics, so the question is what else can they do? the yen is so strong. we do need to see the yen weakened to be more positive on the equity market, and we are not seeing that yet. the yen will be continued to be strong, so maybe some weakness in the yen coming forward, but whether that will be enough is the question. yvonne: china gdp figures coming out, a surprise or another disappointment? >> the economy should continue to post slower growth, but it will not collapse. i think that is the key difference. the key for us to invest in china is to focus on those companies that can generate returns. yvonne: we will leave it there.
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x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1. is 9:30 a.m. in tokyo, 30 mins into trade, stocks having a bump, up 2.8% on the nikkei 225. you are watching "daybreak asia" . sharesries, asian starting higher, tracking a bounce in the u.s. following better-than-expected jobs data. offks in sydney shrugged warnings about the credit rating. the yen weaker after japanese machine orders fell in may. line has set its ipo pricing at the top of the range, shares offered at ¥3300.
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that would see japan's most popular instant messaging service raise more than $1.3 billion for its dual listing in tokyo and new york. last week, line raised the price range despite the brexit vote. nintendo shares surge 17%, up for a second day on the strength of its new mobile game, pokémon go. they augmented reality game sees players hunt for the imaginary creatures in real-life locations. the mobile app rocketed to the top of the mobile app store in the first days of its release. global news 24 hours a day powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. let's look at markets trading in the asia-pacific, some big bounce back in japanese equities come up close to 3% on the andhmark >> now, the kospi aussie stocks gaining. japan machine numbers did
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disappoint falling from a month ago. economists were expecting a gain of 3.2%. the year on year figures looking ugly, falling 11.7%. that would leave orders below the level required to hit the corporate outlooks, not looking good. the yen gains, impact of the earthquakes, but it seems like investors are shrugging that off with gains across the board so far in asia. outlook for most asset prices remains promising, the view on oil though has deteriorated over the past few weeks. let's go to david now with a look at crude. what is the problem now? to three are back months ago when people were looking at the supply situation and saying that will drive prices lower. the dust is starting to settle on these macro problems, and it's coming through that there are still a lot of supplies out there. this is just a quick look at
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where prices are, they hit a ceiling at $50. a lot of fun guys have called the top on oil. above the 50 level, we have come down, stagnating in june, and since the start of this month, coming back down to $45. a lot of this comes down to supply. my next chart is going to show you what the increase in production that we have seen from iran has done to offset almost completely the decrease in output coming out of the u.s. story on it that this. shows you in yellow is the drop in u.s. oil output this year, or change compared to this time last year, about 800,000 barrels a day. in green you see an increase to 700,000 barrels for iran, so it almost offsets it.
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when you extrapolate this ford, iran wants to increase further .y 10% to 15% 4ey are looking at adding million barrels a day, and we are currently at 3.5 million barrels a day, so this number goes up to 1.2. if you look at how the markets have been positioning given these developments and the number of short positions on oil has spiked since the start of june. i will flip this and show you the number of long positions that has gone the other way. let me end on this quote that sums it up quite well from doug keenan, he says that when you look at the growth outlook, we think we will be under some
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pressure. look atly have to potential disruptions and supply to get any sort of excitement as far as oil is concerned to jack rises up from the current levels. we think there is a correction coming in oil. they think it will be at $40 to $45 and nephew weeks. yvonne: japan's biggest bond bulls have a few things to say to treasuries investors, the plunge and yields in tokyo for shuttering record-breaking gains for u.s. bonds. how is japan an example of what might happen in the u.s.? >> good morning. japanification is the watchword of the morning. these investors in tokyo who have seen their yields go to zero and who have suffered through 15 years of stagnating prices, stagnating inflation, say the same forces at work and
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there are economy will unfold in the u.s., which is an aging population that will put increasing strains on the economy and a central bank that even after years of unprecedented monetary stimulus cannot spur inflation. nonne: we see that there is limit to how low yields can go in japan. what do japan bond investors say for the outlook with u.s. treasuries? as yields are falling in japan, so will they in the u.s.. in a way, the future is here, bonds rallying all over the world, but just sticking to treasuries, treasury yields fell to a record low last week. the benchmark 10 year yields about 1.4%. one of our tokyo investors saying 1% is inevitable and make him as soon as this month. as you say, the lesson from japan is that there is no limit to how low yields can go.
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we have another investor in tokyo whose says that yields may well go below 1%. 1.35% one touched friday despite the fact that stocks in the u.s. were very close to record highs. some people saying that is not showing a good message on growth , but when it comes to returns in the bond market, how have they been this year? >> this has deftly been the year for bonds. bonds have been outshining 6%cks, treasuries have risen , and japanese bonzo most 8%, so both numbers are more than what the s&p 500 has returned. much, livenk you so from singapore. we will continue to watch japan yields as the u.s. treasuries as well. g-20 trade ministers have warned that there could be a decline of 15% in global cross-border
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investment this year after a meeting on sunday and shanghai, the 20 representatives pledged to improve international trade and urged other wto numbers to do likewise. chinese hedge funds turning bullish on stocks after the brexit vote. of funds plan to add stock holdings this month, which is a jump from 50% in june. the manager said attractive valuation with the shanghai benchmark down 40% from his 2015 feet. hewlett packard enterprises considering the sale of some software assets as a part of a plan to streamline operations. sources tell bloomberg they are looking to develop some acquisitions made over the last decade, including murder create interactive and others. -- mercury interactive and others. they say it may not result in any deals. penaltiesa planning over the emissions scandal.
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the punishments include fines, recall orders, and withdrawal of certification. korean prosecutors made the request, accusing vw of fabricating reports. up to 150,000 vehicles sold since 2007 could be affected. that was a look at some of the stories making headlines. boeing and airbus may be set to win multibillion-dollar deals. aircraft makers gathering for the u.k. airshow are hoping for orders from europe to india as they look to ease concerns about the slowdown. the industry is expecting fewer orders? rosalind: especially of wide-body planes. analysts will be looking at the airshow because this is a big one for the industry to see whether their concerns are played out. sevens, a3, triple
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80's, those large orders art scene is slowing down. long-haulasically airfares under pressure. hurtingns it is profitability, so airlines not buying so many of those. irrill lynch says it sees quite air sure and more orders being deferred in the next six months. economic uncertainty globally does not help airline industry either. therefore, buying planes may play into that. and has been well doing well so far are the 737, a-320,es, boeing with orders of $3.5 billion at list prices from airlines.
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airbus talking to india's go airlines about 70 a-320 planes were the $7.5 billion at list prices. again, list prices are basically rack rates. get some bigly to discounts, but still, this is the headline right we are seeing that might be pulled in from these deals, but this is an area that analysts are watching to see whether concerns about the slow down in the aviation industry are really coming true or whether the orders for the smaller planes may help hold it off. yvonne: that will be the type of trend, smaller aircraft? >> that is where they are seeing the strongest growth at the moment. next year is another question. orders for are bigger planes into the future, but at the moment, the smaller planes are pretty much what the industry experts are seeing as the driver so far. yvonne: thank you so much.
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in hongit is 8:44 a.m. kong, these other way to his first word -- the latest first word hairlines. a decision reached later on monday after parties involved examine a technical issue. deutsche boorse investors have until tuesday to tender their shares. north korea test fired a missile on saturday one day after south korea and the u.s. agreed to deploy an antimissile system in the korean peninsula by the end of the year. had described new sanctions targeting the korean leader as a declaration of war. the missile was launched off the
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has appearedut to fail. a threat to lock workers in a dispute over pay and pensions. the government incentive progress is being made in negotiations. no lockout means no interruption to mail service as talks continue. dayal news 24 hours a powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. i look at some of the big events we are following this week. tuesday brings arbitration on disputed waters in the south china sea. an international court in the hague is to rule on the philippines claim to the islands , which are also claimed by china. also on tuesday, leaders from the eu and china meet in beijing for their 18th bilateral summit. the premier as the host with donald tusk and jean-claude juncker representing the eu. they will focus on economic
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relations with the fallout from the brexit decision set to dominate. korea announces its latest rate decision on thursday. analysts expected to hold at the record low of 1.25 percent after a surprise cut we saw last month with the central bank governors signaling the chance of further easing to come. latest economic data may show china's growth slowing even further. economists expect gdp to have risen 6.6% last quarter compared with 6.7% in the previous three months. that china gdp figure going to be a big one this week. coming up, getting in the game, chinese firms putting billions into soccer. we will find out why, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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yvonne: more breaking news out of nintendo, extending gains in tokyo to 25%. it has touched the daily limit with less than an hour into trade. this is the best day that nintendo has performed since going public in 1983. it is 23% up right now. we think we saw more than 10% gains on friday as well, so this is fueling more of this. this is because of the pokey man
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-- pokémon go game. the shift from the console to smartphones looking good for nintendo, continuing to see gains for a second straight day. a quick check of markets and play around the region, tokyo up 3%g strong, shares right now on the benchmark. we do see a weaker yen today. machine orders from a did look pretty bad, but investors seem to be shrugging that off because of the jobs figure out of the u.s. overnight. that blowout number sent wall street flirting with record highs, that traction following through in australia as well, up .1 .6% -- up 1.6 percent, bond yields close to records when it comes to 10 year treasuries, so
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some saying this should not be happening when you have a bond yields at record lows, but stock still going higher today. in seoul, korea, shares also 1% anding gains, up south korea right now. singapore starts trading in 15 minutes, will discontinue in the lion city? futures pointing to another higher open despite the rain? season does get underway in the u.s. this week after stocks briefly saw a 13 month high on friday. >> the week ahead on wall street will likely see investors very much focused on the direction question, can u.s. stocks extend friday's gains with the s&p 500 once again within striking distance of a record close. the week will also usher in the latest earnings season with
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alcoa kicking things off on monday, banks and financial firms that report their numbers later in the week, including j.p. morgan chase, wells fargo, citigroup, and blackrock. a fresh round of economic data will include figures on consumer prices, industrial production, and consumer sentiment, and economists surveyed said that retail sales likely rose again in june as the man picked up at merchants other than auto dealers. they also projected gains in consumer prices, showing inflation is moving toward fed policymakers goals. that strong jobs report easing concerns in terms of the global economy. let's get more on markets in the asia-pacific. there are quite a few catalysts and risk events for investors in asia this week, but we have started off on a positive note. have a look at this 3% gain coming through on the nikkei 225, only one stock out of 225
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in the red at the moment, japan tobacco. we have seen disappointing numbers coming through for machine orders in may versus a survey estimate of 3.2%, at that has not slighted investor confidence, the bulls certainly taking the lead today following on from that positive sentiment from global equities on friday. also, a good start to the trading week and south korea, i 1.2%, a pullback in the cold -- crude price not affecting stocks in australia. in thein on the asx 200 early session. we have seen a little bit of weakness coming through from some of those health care players that sometimes come under defensive buying, but certainly risk on today, so we are seeing those players coming on. new zealand up by seven tens of 1%, some good movement coming
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through the banking sector there. we saw a very solid move from the banking sector in europe and also in the u.s. on friday. looking at the regional index, there is that small switch out of the oil and gas sector as crude falls, but elsewhere every sector is looking solid, led by that financial figure. seenrude oil price has drilling and the u.s. increase a little, so the oil price come off a tenths of 1%. yvonne: thank you. still being affected by the tail and of the typhoon, how asia deals with the annual storm season is being discussed in singapore. guest is president of the rockefeller foundation.
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that's one of several issues being discussed. by 2050, 50% of asians will live in cities. in latin america, that number goes up to 90%, putting a lot of strain on resources. many will find themselves living on the fringes. good morning. that crisisd before is the new norm, billions of dollars being spent to fix problems before they unravel. what exactly needs fixing immediately? bythere isn't a week goes that there is not some crisis, climate change, droughts, floods, hurricanes, synonymy's, cyber attacks, terrorism, social isest, and the work here
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really showing that investments made in building resilience helps cities, businesses, communities to rebound more quickly and more effectively, and to be able to use the resources that come in to transform so that they are less vulnerable the next time. think of it this way, a dollars spent on prevention saves of four dollars spent after the fact on really doing something to mitigate the bad thing that has happened. doessilient cities, what it entail? typhoonsu ensure that will not leave cities totally devastated, that they can recover from those events? >> the goal of building resilience in cities is to help them manage the a affordable and avoid the unmanageable, so you can't prevent everything that but happen, a climate,
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building the right kinds of flood protections to rebound while thisively, and idea has caught on in cities around the world is because of the notion that we have demonstrated to them a building of resilience, that when you invest in building resilience that it also yields benefits and the good times. think of the marina garage in singapore, built as a flood it also captures freshwater, creates much-needed green and recreational space, and has been a spur to additional economic developments. , four terrific outcomes, that is the resilience dividend. it's not just about governments taking the initiative, the private sector will have to do the same tired -- the same. resilient cities is bringing together the public-private collaboration, critical for business for three reasons.
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one, their own rebound depends on their own resilience planning. secondly, there are all kinds of resilient goods and services that these businesses are finding, microsoft, mastercard, creating a digital platform for cities that otherwise might be vulnerable in a cash-only society. , finding newytics ways to use their technology in the service of resilience. >> we have to leave it there. break.going for a short bloomberg television will be right back. stay with us. ♪
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♪ angie: it is monday, the 11th of july. i am angie lau. this is "trending business". ♪ will be live in tokyo, singapore, and sydney. we are watching. asian stocks make a positive start to the week after a strong jobs report in the u.s. nintendo touching the 25% limit on the strength of the pokémon go game.
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