>> tracking gains in u.s. shares after a strong jobs report eases concerns about the world's largest economy. chancellor george osborne heads to new york, kicking off a two-week world tour aimed at theing up confidence in uk's post-brexit economy. shinzo abe promises bold economic measures after a victory in japan's upper house elections. nintendo has its biggest surge since listing in 1983 as pokemon adds $7 billion to its market value in just a week.

a very warm welcome to "countdown." manus: i am manus cranny. bold and broad, the words from shinzo abe? we are talking about a blockade. i'm talking about a blockade, and that's the mental blockade. we are off a 2.5-year high. in market position dollar-yen is as long as long can be, the longest since december of 2012. with moregot abe political brute force and the ability to come through potentially with a ¥10 trillion to you that ise with the market is potentially going to look at. all of this plays into the psychology which is, are we long and wrong, and will houston was package from abe stop this march of the yen?

anna: what does broad and bold look like a? we have had that since the beginning of june. let's have a look at the risk rate. onery strong jobs report out friday. we saw the s&p on friday flirting with a record close. 287,000 jobs. we've got gold and silver near two-month highs. we put in the emerging market currency, and we particularly like the ringgit. it's the better performing affects this year. the emerging market fx, doing pretty well. the yield on the u.s. 10-year, 1.37 report -- 1.37%. manus: let's see where we go with that.

the aviation industry's largest gathering kicks off today. nobody else could possibly cover this except guy johnson. guy, you are looking very summary. are the ceos as relaxed as you are? guy: i suspect not. plenty of things going on for them to worry about. what effect will the brexit have in terms of global demand? will it slow the story down for these guys? then you've got what is happening in terms of the credit. of aircraft, very cheap. is that offsetting the oil price? it really is a story of whether or not we are going to see this industry beginning to roll over. we have seen good years over the past few years. whether or not it can be sustained at current levels is the big question dominating the story. there will be opportunities at a brexit. we will be talking to qatar air. do they want to take a bigger

stake in iag? what does the boss of bowling think? we will be talking to boeing and airbus, as well, trying to get an idea of whether the brexit story and this global slowdown concern is filtering into this sector. one bright spot may be the defense area. we saw the nato summit in warsaw. defense spending looks like it is going to be picking up, and it will be interesting to see whether that ripples around the show. anna: thank you very much. guy johnson will be on the ground at the farnborough airshow. let's let you know that prime minister abe in japan is speaking. we heard about his broad and bold commitment to fiscal stimulus. he is speaking in tokyo, saying economic steps to encourage future investment is what is necessary. economy needs to establish a 21st century infrastructure you'd he's going to order preparation of economic stimulus tomorrow. perhaps we will hear more details about what is going to be introduced.

many people are talking about fiscal stimulus in the autumn. manus: everybody is talking about the slow drift, the world in slow growth. everybody is focused on, what does secular stagnation look like? anna: drift economy. managing to stay afloat but not going anywhere very fast. what does that look like for world equities? let's get the bloomberg first word news with rosalind chin. : the japanese prime minister shinzo labbe is making an address after his conservative coalition secured a convincing upper house election win. the yen weekend against most of the 10 developed market peers, and japanese market shares after he said he wanted this with for relation of comprehensive, bold economic measures. president obama has warned americans protesting against police violence to remain respectful or risk undermining their message.

speaking on his visit to spain, the president said rallies held in u.s. cities over the weekend were legitimate but called violence against officers and crime."nsible police killings of two black men were followed by the murder of five dallas police officers. prime minister markham turnbull has declared victory in australia's elections. the more than a week after voting, it remains unclear if his liberal national coalition has enough seats to form a majority government. the nation has been paralyzed politically since the july 2 ballot failed to produce a clear winner, and officials are still coming through postal votes to determine the final tally. nintendo shares have soared after the success of it pokemon go smartphone game. the company has added more than $7 billion in market value since its launch last week. the augmented reality game that lets users tracked on virtual monsters in their vicinity is the top downloaded app for apple

in the u.s. and australia. portugal are the football champions of europe. the visitors had to overcome the loss of cristiano ronaldo to a first-half injury. and goal from the substitute in the 190 minute broke the deadlock, and portugal held on to win the first major men's title. it was their first win over france since 1975. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . manus: let's get into those equity markets. david inglis is standing by. the dollar-yen is pausing for breath around 100. that is an understatement. i think it's one of those days where it's wrong to wear a red tide. have a look at how asia is

looking. over 90% of stocks are on the way up, every single sector grew. whenlls you something you're underperforming market is up 0.5%. asia overall is looking like this. japan, 4.5%. i will show you dollar-yen. it comes down to a few things. we had the convincing victory from shinzo abe. you had inflation data out of china showing stable prices. happeningk at what is especially towards the longer end of the bond curve. we are continuing to see some .uying, especially in taiwan the u.s. 10-year has basically held at about 136. currencies, same story. 101.24 is your level. this seems to be moving on the back of those comments perhaps

being made by shinzo abe in japan. a look at the opposite side of this trade. the yen is weakening. the dollar is weakening. the south korean won, 1.2%. the malaysian ringgit, the best-performing currency across asia. when you have the ringgit, the one, and other asian currencies on the way up, typically, that does tell you it's full risk on. it's a pretty good day in asia. anna: thank you very much, david inglis in hong kong. let's get back to the u.k. political scene. u.k. chancellor george osborne heads to wall street aiming to shore up investor confidence in britain's economy. he's embarking on a two-week shuttle tour of the u.s., china, and singapore in a bid to persuade financiers to stick with the u.k. as it prepares to end its union with the world's largest trading block. osborne says, my message to the world is britain may be leaving the eu, but we are not quitting

the world. manus: there you go, very clear. anglo merkel says she expects the next uk prime minister will honor the brexit vote and will start talks on leaving the eu. president obama has echoed that sentiment. >> i think we have to assume that a referendum have a been passed -- having been passed, with a lot of attention, a lengthy campaign, and high participation rates is going to stick. manus: joining us to make sense of the moves in the market, it's jeremy stretch, head of fx strategy. in the factony lost that people belated obama for lecturing the u.k. to stay in europe, and here he is telling us to have an orderly exit. we know what we've got to do. what is the base case at your house? when will article 50 be invoked? when will that begin? >> starting with the last question first, i don't think we have seen the lows in sterling.

i think we have further downside risk. we will see a move into the mid to low 1.20's against the u.s. dollar. ofhink the triggering article 50 will be inherent in terms of the process. if we were to see the leadership campaigners in the conservative party as we move towards that september 9 date, if we see the presumption of andrea led some likely to be the victor, the market will be slightly more uncertain in terms of relation to the earlier triggering of article 50. that is probably the greater downside risk of sterling in terms of that context. may, i thinkheresa we may have more of a protracted period, which could provide some degree of stability or a slightly higher floor. still a lot of headwinds ahead. anna: we look ahead to the verdict on who is going to lead the party and country. not quitting the world is the message george osborne wants to say. >> that is encouraging.

we are still remaining in the universe. anna: so that's good. he's going around the world trying to convince investors not to pull their money out of the u.k., and a lot of the efforts they might've been looking at might look cheaper. what is your view in terms of how that offsets some of the other concerns? >> it's one of those issues, if you are an international investor and looking at the say, clearly, uncertainty has increased dramatically. u.k.an argue assets in the have become cheaper in terms of most foreign currencies. if you are looking at a longer-term view, there is still value in the u.k. if you assume we are going to have shorter term economic headwinds, which aren't going to persist over the medium run -- i'm asking about 3, 5, 10 years -- i think u.k. investors will look with some degree of optimism, but i think there is short-term uncertainty, which is clearly going to destabilize,

and that is what mr. osborne is going to try to do, to reinsurer -- reassure investors. we don't know if he will be chancellor come september. that is going to be the difficulty. anna: some of the things theresa may has said -- seen the fiscal backdrop of george osborne, the plan of conservatives. that has been ripped up already. that just underlines the difficulty he has in trying to assuage investors' fears. seems one market which fairly convinced that the moment you can put your money into it is the gilt market. this is the heat map of the gilt .arket what i'm interested in, citigroup wrote a note, and they are talking about the 20-year coming down, down, down in terms of yield. the market is priced for a recession. what is the statistical probability of a recession?

it is not priced for qe. is sterling priced for a recession, and is sterling priced for qe? >> i don't think we are going to get a recession. i think we will have a time of excessively slow growth. adequate will have a protracted lack of economic activity over the course over the rest of this year and the early part of next year. i don't think he will see an outright recession. i don't think the markets are fully pricing in additional bond-buying. i think it is a realistic probability or possibility. the bank of england has very little room in terms of conventional ammunition in terms of monetary policy. it's going to be the case that slow growth, yes, recession, no. think the market isn't necessarily pricing in the probability of bank of england action. that is going to be impacted in sterling and in terms of bond yields. anna: the basic note for the world economy is drift economy.

perhaps we are not drowning, but somewhere in between. >> we are the man who is flailing a bit. if you are looking to the lifeguard to make sure you are ok -- anna: someone throw us a life ring. stretch, head of fx strategies at cibc. we've got a pretty big guest for you. that is coming up at 7:00 a.m. we will speak exclusively to the outbidding asset-management ceo. what next for u.k. property? anna: up next, broad and bold. japan's stimulus plan takes shape after abe secures a victory. we go to tokyo next. ♪

it is just past 1:18. you are looking at a lovely shot of victoria harbour. stocks are rallying. the hang seng is up one point 37%. let's get the bloomberg business

flash. rosalind chin is with us. rosalind: standard chartered has started its first brokerage business in japan with 100 employees. 20 of them will sell emerging-market products with the potential for fast growth to japanese insurance companies and asset managers. the move comes as ceo bill winters cuts costs and cells businesses as he tries to turn around the london-based bank, which last year posted its first loss since 1989. the messaging app line has set its ipo pricing at the top of the range. scherzer be offered at ¥3300, under $33. it is japan's most popular instant messaging service. india's tata steel is pushing for a partner in europe after the brexit vote. it is an primary talks with germany over a possible joint venture. tata is reviewing bids on its u.k. assets after sources said four companies pulled out

following the referendum. the british government says it will help with the sale as it looks to protect 15,000 jobs that may be at stake. the ultimate fighting championship is reportedly set to announce as early as today that the business has been sold. according to "the new york is expectedleague to be bought by a group led by the talent giant img for about $4 billion. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. let's talk about japan. shinzo abe is speaking right now. he's promised swift and bold economic measures after winning in the upper house elections. he is speaking in tokyo. bloombergs jd schneider joins us. she's in the japanese capital. good to have you on the program. does the selection win put abe

and a stronger position to move forward with his stimulus? he's been talking about his bold and broad plans to be introduced in the autumn. does he have more political clout for that now? absolutely does. he first mentioned the broad-bold statement june 1 when he was making the announcement that -- for the postponement of the sales tax. he said, don't worry come in the fall, we are going to have broad and was. now with this resounding and convincing majority, it looks like it is going to be headed to a two thirds majority or super majority in the parliament. this does give him the ability to go out and try to do more things without being a mix -- with abenomics. with that super majority that allows him to take the steps to start going ahead to change the pacifist constitution, something

he didn't mention much in the campaign, because it is controversial, but if he decides to go that way, it might distract from more fiscal stimulus. anna: he said he wants to accelerate the exit from deflation as much as possible, this, one of the key challenges abenomics still faces. that's right. he has been in office since 2012, has tried to do a lot with fiscal stimulus, and yet the deflation is still a factor in japan. consumer spending is flat. wages are flat. strengthening yen of late. this is starting to affect exporters. the economy is weak, and he's been trying to do a lot in those three years. it's unclear whether more fiscal stimulus is going to reignite inflation and growth in japan. anna: thank you very much for joining us, jodi schneider in tokyo. stretch, just

listening to the comments coming through across the terminal, expanding investment in young people, going for high-speed trains, potentially ¥10 trillion in fiscal stimulus, what does that do to the fx compound? sub-100.ad this run of we tried it last week. does ¥10 trillion change that story? does that change the narrative? we have heard all of this before from abe. >> indeed we have. we can talk about these broad plans. it's good news in the sense that japan has a more stable political backdrop. globally, we see political uncertainty almost everywhere. that is good news. the 100 level is a line in the sand or a blockade, as you mentioned. in one context, and the japanese would love to see a cheaper yen to encourage inflation. we are talking about a fiscal measure. we will also be talking about additional monetary stimulus

from the bank of japan. the japanese will continue to push aggressively in terms of trying to cheapen the yen to boost abenomics. the problem is the global environment, the global risk appetite, and that is the variable that the japanese can't turn on their own. there are concerns about global growth and drifting. that is the backdrop that japan are working against, and they are trying to push against a fairly difficult set of conditions. i don't think we are going to see the dollar-yen moving materially higher but probably moving away from the 100 threshold. has been talking about making the most of the zero rate environment, and that remains one of the most frustrating factors of this drift economy. money is cheap, and yet businesses are reluctant to spend. governments, not investing. how do you think that japan will make the most of that 0%? the negatives are clear to see in terms of bank profits and an

aging population. it makes for a challenging environment. >> demographics in japan are clearly an ongoing issue. the japanese government has been able to run a budget deficit, but in order to do that, it's byn able to fund itself selling bonds to its domestic population who are aging and becoming net sellers rather than net buyers of jgb's. for any number of jurisdictions, if you are talking about building infrastructure and utilizing lower rates to encourage that, that is good news. you could argue that japan is further along in the infrastructure process than other jurisdictions. you may argue that they are going to find it more difficult benefit from in infrastructure-based stimulus. manus: the whole argument is about a slow drifting world and a risk-averse world. what we've got is a view of what happens next. if we look at it through your prism, which is fx, what we've this chart, and the

headline on the story is, "tokyo welcomes treasury investors to the world of japanification." here's the blue line, which is japanese government bonds. here is the u.s. this story is talking about sub 1% in the u.s. what does that mean for dollar-yen? what does that mean for dollar? >> and means the dollar backdrop is going to be much more challenging. you could normally argue that if the dollar is going to perform well, you would need to see growth in the u.s. needing to be stronger than elsewhere. we are still talking about positive yield spreads the u.s. over. in that context, that is still going to be a story. in a sense, the u.s. don't want a notably strong dollar. it's a case of what is the least worst scenario. we are in a world where global bond yields are going to continue to be under pressure for the foreseeable future because growth is much lower.

anna: we will take drifting rather than drowning. jeremy stretch, head of affect strategy at cibc. next on aviation industry, very much in focus at farnborough. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games

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x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1. lafarge to invest a stake -- they're going to sell part of lafarge india. sure the deal runs to form. let's get up to speed with the bloomberg first word news. is with us.mber

shares jumped after he repeated his pledge of action on a stimulus package. u.k. gentler -- chancellor, europe,sborne, heads to a bid to and japan in convince them to stick with the u.k. on glimmer call says she firmly expects the next uk prime minister will honor the brexit vote. has echoed that sentiment. >> we have to assume that a referendum being passed, with a lot of attention,

anti-participation rates -- and high participation rates will stick. >> picking on his visit to spain, the president said that rallies held in many u.s. cities are legitimate the called any violence against officers and reprehensible crime. week, the police killings menwo blackman -- two black was followed by the murder of five police officers. pokemon go -- global news, 24 hours a day, powered by analysts and more than 120 countries. rishaad: --

anna: asia stocks jump in the most is since march. this has reduced concern but the world's largest economy losing momentum. asia pacificci index has risen to a one-month high. the hang seng is rising by the most in a month. the shanghai composite building on its first back-to-back weekly gains since april. u.s. jobs data is better than expected but also better than expected inflation data. it is little wonder that it is rebounding. you can see it gaining against the dollar.

the yen, this has halted a four-day rally. we have been hearing from shinzo abe this morning. he says he will order the preparation of stimulus tomorrow. both wti and brent -- we are seeing them wakening up to u.s. producers increased the number of active rigs to the highest in 12 weeks. >> just to put in context what nara has been talking about, -- what nejra has been talking about. this is your gmm function. copper is up 1.6%. what happens next? citigroup termed bullish on commodities. anna: even gold is flat.

gold is also going higher. but it is actually fairly flat. traditionally, there is a battle between u.s. tighten's boeing and airbus for supremacy. t-rex from britain's shock decision to leave the european union, guy johnson is on the ground. what do you think that britain has done to the industry? iswhat they are telling us maybe it is something that could have an effect on global demand. we are already seeing global we arebegan to ebb away. having people talk about concern for the north atlantic market in particular.

what will that mean for the people who supply aircraft and the bits and pieces that go with that? it exacerbates. -- the expected payroll numbers exacerbate the slowdown story. the third could be more positive. if you are rolls-royce making jet engines, if you are making jet fighters, if you are making wings in north wales, we have seen the sterling depreciation story come through. does that make the u.k. recession more competitive? anna: what is the latest from boeing and airbus? they are focusing back in on what is that traditional battle at aviation shows. >> previously, you have seen huge orders. that is certainly beginning to fade. you are still seeing huge auto

books for these guys. that will be sending they can focus on here. you donate to buy a new one. the other question -- factor is low interest rates. that should keep auto books up. their two competing factors here. the global economy is front and center for all of those guys. will on this morning we get his take on exactly what is happening and get his view on whether or not the global slowdown will mean fewer and fewer aircraft orders. >> that's going to be the real key. the -- what are the other key themes that you think will come out? >> when need to talk a little bit about defense. we just in the nato summit in warsaw.

we started to get inklings that -- michael fallon the defense secretary will be here along with david cameron. are we going to see a pickup in defense spending? there is also the concern about what is happening with russia in the south china sea. in whichd be an area the industry is going to focus. we've also got raytheon coming up very shortly. we will get its take on what exactly is happening with the defense space. >> countdown has more than tripled the underwriting fees it paid to raise record-breaking $9 billion in bonds. the precedent for other gold bonds and study a and kuwait also planning on sales. >> let's get straight to a bit of a.

when i was down there they were coming fast and furious. why are they tripling the fees? >> manus, you know very well at the demand has been very strong recently. is a spread pick up compared to things like u.s. treasuries. compared with a relatively high rating. the biggest ever for middle east. they attracted $23 billion worth of orders. what is really driving those higher fees is the amount of issuance being sold by gold countries and companies at the moment. we used to think of the region as an oil exporter. it's going to be one of the biggest exporters of debt into the capital markets.

qatarlion just from alone, any to tap into a wide array of investors. that is with a syndicate bankers come in. they can hook the issuers up with clients and cash bulls. to reach a wider net of potential investors you have to pay up for the privilege. >> so it's not exactly a bonanza for the banking sector? the thing is, they are paying up on an absolute basis. basis, remember that the 21 basis points they are paying, about $19 million to the 10 banks they hired for this on issuance. compare that to five years ago it was six basis points but spread out among a smaller pool of banks.

bonanza ishat is a the potential for more deals. it's usually about building relationships. a lot of bankers are willing to look at cheaper fees for bond issuance. there are some big ones on the way. privatizationand including the potential stake sale. saudi arabia is also looking to sell up to $10 billion worth of bonds quite soon so it will be interesting to see if they follow the qatari blueprint for fees. china's economy is starting to stabilize. inflation accelerated more than expected. >> tom orlik joins us now from beijing. consumer prices are weakening. what is the story?

consumer prices, etc. much a food story. the startd prices at of the are pushing consumer prices up. starting to are unwind so consumer prices are coming back down. the more hopeful signs are really on the producer side. as you mentioned we have had this progressive firming of factory gate prices. that is a positive for a couple of reasons. it speaks to slightly stronger demand using up a little bit of flak in china's industrial sector. secondly, from her producer prices, higher produce prices monetaryctively easier conditions.

that has had a really substantial impact on real borrowing costs bringing down the real cost of borrowing. the hope for china's policy makers is that will do some of the jobs of the people's bank for them. >> what can we expect, what does it mean? how can we interpret it? what is next on the agenda? data released this week was gdp on friday. the consensus forecast is for expansion andear china's economy in the second quarter down slightly from 6.7% in the first quarter. our in-house monthly gep tracker is running at 6.9% in april and may so that makes this thing may a shade too pessimistic.

tooaybe a shade pessimistic. possible that we are going to see a policy you sometime in the near future but our view is with headline groups inflating the target range in with a lot of uncertainty and ranked factors like the fed, the china policy makers will keep the >> german stretch is the head of ethics strategy at civ. do we want to stop worrying about the exporting or is it still on the agenda? >> it is still on the agenda. the market will continue to worry about the china growth story going forward.

if we go back to q1. the concerns are abating. we will see growth remaining consistently above that threshold. yet here we are coming to the second week and the chinese are getting ready to produce gdp for the second quarter. in that context we have to take the numbers at relative strength value. i don't think we are seeing a significant collapse and i don't think we will see that exporting the deflation -- >> what has changed in china? the reason i ask that is the fx reserves, up by $13 billion. dollar you want is down for the fifth weekend in a row. the longest losing streak of this year. what has changed in the chinese thecy remit russian mark >> context of the chinese are not so perturbed or upset considering this capital flight in the way they were earlier.

tolerationseeing a of a slight cheapening in the theency in order to create push back against the deflation story. the authority loosens the remit of little bit. -- that'srned about just the scenario that is playing out. the authorities are keen to try and engender into growth. that's the process that is ongoing on a slower basis. on june 23look back and look at the domino effect that we might see on various market and asset classes, we spoke to the labor on thursday and she said right now we're seeing the expression of concern in the property sector but then she was saying, look further afield and look for some of the emerging-market assets and she talked about china and at the yuan. and what this might do to the management of their currency.

you see any link they saw between the brexit story and what china does with its currency? >> i wouldn't overplay that particular connection at this juncture. simple terms the trade relationships are relatively modest. the u.k. needs to engender more trade with china but that is an ongoing factor which could be the combination of additional trade ties but in terms of the direct relationship with the chinese fx reserves and they could be an immediate and obvious counterpoint in terms of the backwash of june 23. i'll be at economy doesn't require additional hits. economy, at the drift think about calendar year 2016. it has been all about headwinds to the global economy. those will have a contingent impact on china but overall we are talking about another hit. i do think were talking about where they are --

don't know where to turn on a monday morning. brexit in brussels. the euro zone gather for the first time since the referendum. .e discuss

>> welcome back every getting, this is countdown. this 6:51 in london. let's get in a bloomberg business flash. >> standard chartered has started its first brokerage business in japan with 100 employees. 20 will sell emerging markets with the potential for fast growth to japanese life insurance brokerages tax and asset managers. the news comes even as bill and cellsts costs

businesses as he tries to turn the london-based banquet posted its first loss last year since 1989. divest says they will itself in india. the firm says it will use the money to further reduce debt. the news comes as the world's biggest cement company is struggling to win over disgruntled investors a year into its mega merger. the ultimate fighting championship is reportedly set to announce earlier today that the business has been sold. going to the new york times citing people with direct knowledge of the matter, the league is expected to be by a group for about $4 billion. names linked to the deal improve -- include private equity have a lake silver lake -- heavyweights, silver lake, bpr. >> the eurozone finance ministers minute in brussels later today to talk about italian banks. the situation in greece and pets -- spanish and portuguese

sanctions. time thehe first region finance chiefs have been in a room together since the referendum. it is still with us here in the studio. germany, but expect the focus of this to go? >> you can look at the minutia of what they are going to be talking about this week or the bigger picture. i was fascinated to see the results of various polling from around europe that suggests the idea of another country doing an exit of any kind seems to be less on the radar since brexit compared to where it was before. the think it underlines policy agreement that the european leaders will probably pursue in terms of trying to make it sufficiently uncomfortable for the u.k. to make other nations think i need to think twice about this because we are inside the eurozone project and it will be even more difficult to on twine that relationship.

in that context it is not that surprising. for europe as a whole it is this ongoing issue of the we to does weaker data backdrop, the impact of the slowing economy, of the week banking system which is inherently a concern, particularly in relation to those liquidity injections and the recapitalization we seen other jurisdictions weatherby the u.s. or the u.k.. they are ongoing headwinds politically and economically. that's a just of the euro does and will cheapen up over the course of ensuing days and weeks. what would make the recapitalization of italian banks a systemic issue for italianuestion mark banks need $166 billion. 150 billion euros. ireland bailed out their banks that was 37% of their gdp. what makes the italian banks story systemic?

>> a systemic story is the degree of contagion between banks. that will be the systemic risk if we were to see a crisis. we have the issue -- that's the added complication as regards the european backdrop in this particular context. it's the contagion risk in the state aid rules. and the difficulty that he had ahead of his own constitutional referendum in october. that will come round remarkably quickly. there is inherent instability on? switch will be reflected in terms of the forms of currency. anna: you think it will cheapen against the dollar? >> indeed. >> where does the bank of england sit in all of this? 55% of economists that we asked expect that there will be a cut but others expect them to wait until august.

>> i have to say prior to the carney speech in the aftermath of brexit i would assume that the bank of england would have waited until august and the could've run their full forecast and have the assumptions put in place post brexit but the carney speech cut of changed the game. they have to question how much sanction he got from other members in that context. but he certainly raise the bar in terms of the probability of a rate cut coming as early as this week. you can argue whether 25 basis points in terms of lower rates will make material difference other than a psychological one. i think the bank want to be seen to be proactive and that's been one of the issues over the course of the last two to three weeks. while politicians have been losing their has the one person who has been standing up for the institution that has been standing up has been the bank of england. jeremy thank you for giving us your time this morning.

>> coming up the next half hour of the program we speak exclusively to the avenue -- aberdeen asset manager martin gill joining us here on countdown. this is bloomberg.

soar after acks

strong jobs report eases concerns about the world's largest economy. george osborne heads to new york kicking off a two-week world to shoring up confidence in the u.k.'s post brexit economy. shinzo abe promises broad and bold economic measures. and nintendo has its biggest 1983.since listing in pokemon go at $7 billion of

market value in just a week. you are welcome, good morning. i am manus cranny. >> it's just gone 7:00 here in london. we had a fairly strong session coming through in asia. shaping up to give us a hand over at the european session? >> where win for the periphery. let's see what happens in italy. we have a couple of different views out there. what is at the jobs number on friday almost smacked into the background the u.s. as a week economy. its revised 10 to 11,000 for the previous month. what is going on in the united states of america. there was a strong jobs report so does it put the fed and play question mark the nikkei robs it home.

radar's bring up the risk and show you where we have been a global assets overnight. we have a very strong performs in the japanese market. that's helping the msci asia-pacific up by 2.35%. also the broad and bold promises being made by shinzo abe after that election victory. we've got gold moving lower. in in line with the risk on the scene the smarting. we have the malaysian ringgit up by 1.2% against the u.s. dollar. emerging-market assets doing well today. and the 10 year yield just because you be interested in where that has settled after we had that strong jobs report over in the u.s.. >> let's talk a little bit about bonds. that is part of what the bloomberg machine does. what happens next for the ecb?

will they run out of bonds to buy the german bond market question mark the size of negative bond yields that they can buy in germany is japanese government bonds, -2.7%. tokyo welcomes treasury world of japani fication. anna: gemma stretch did not think there are going down below 1.3%. we will discuss that with our next guest. that is a look at where the various assets are right now. minister'snese prime conservative coalition has secured a convincing upper house election when. apanese shares jumped after repeated his search for action on the stimulus package. has warnedbama

americans to remain respectful or risk undermining their message. speaking in spain he said rallies held over the weekend were dissident but called any violence against officers a reprehensible crime. police killings were followed by the murders of five dallas police officers. has to clearister to in australia's elections. i week after the voting day it remains unclear if he has enough seats to form a majority government. the nation has been politically paralyzed since the ballot failed to produce a clear winner. and officials are still coming through postal votes to determine the final tally. nintendo shares have soared again after the success of the pokemon go smartphone game. and $7pany has added one billion in market value since its launch last week.

the game which lets users track temperature monsters in their vicinity has topped the app charts since its release. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalist and analysts. you can mine -- find more stories in the bloomberg up top . >> let's cap to speed with the markets now. david take it away. dayt's about the time of when japan is closing up shop. but before's focus in on japan. the last six years we have only seen gains of about 4% or more. it's quite rare that we see a session like this. via is picked up with this pop that you see in dollar yen. said a lot of this

consent of his comments from shinzo abe. he wanted a convincing win in the upper house on the weekend. he started talking about a lot of these measures a lot more tangible in fact. the things we've heard from him over the last hour or so about things like reforming the labor market and reforms to the pension system. he is basically prepared he says to order the preparation -- the preparation of stimulus. overall, asia is looking like this. it is a very good day in the equity markets. every single sector group is higher. 90% of stocks in asia are on their way up. india is poised to enter a bull market today. >> david inglis joining us. george osborne heads to wall street today aiming to shore up investor confidence in britain's

economy and financial market. bid togaging guests in a persuade financiers to stick with the u.k. as it prepares to end up its union with the world 's largest trading block. in a statement osborne says my message the world is that britain may be leading the -- leaving the eu but we are not quitting the world. >> uncle a merkel says she from expects at the next uk prime minister will honor the brexit vote and start talks on leaving the eu. president obama has echoed that sentiment. >> we have to assume that the referendum having been passed with a lot of attention a lengthy campaign and relatively hypertensive patient rates is going to stick. joining us now in an exclusive interview it is martin gilbert. i was great to get you into the studio. there is a lot to discuss but let's start with the business. last week saw $18 billion worth

of u.k. funds shutter or gate. you chose a different road. how are redemptions looking? give us a sense of what happens next for your commercial property exposure. on monday last week we saw it redemptions it almost $0.2 million on a fund. without the worst was over after the brexit vote and then the surprises came in the afternoon that one of the funds was gating and that caused the panic selling in the market. you can understand people taking money out of a property fund and investing in at a 20% discount. it was quite a good arbitrage. we took the view that one of our obligations was to provide liquidity to our holders. ourot a valuation done by

-- on a stress valuation, a bit like if you were to try to sell your house in five days, what's at a discount would you have to take on your own property? they came back at 20% to 25%. people want liquidity and we are prepared to give them liquidity but we are giving them time to rethink where they wanted. we had a lot of with trolls people who have put in orders to redeem. i think it may slow down. >> give us some idea on that if you can. you had a lot of with trolls of people who said they wanted to redeem. this flow of redemption requests that you saw last week, didn't peak and now it is slowing question mark >> it peaked tuesday and wednesday and then wednesday it really picked at about 150 million. we had to 5% cash and our fronts we had 700 million pounds of cash. we had prepared well. we thought there was a chance of

brexit. without the property was quite high. we've been selling london property for some time. suspect about two thirds of that 150 will with trauma there locations but we have to give them time to make an informed decision because we have to treat customers fairly which is the overriding concern. ofthere are a couple different things here. one is much reading customers fairly in terms of what the regulators think but secondly, let's get an idea. 2007 and 2008, commercial property down by about 24%. martin, this will cause commercial property assets to be sold. how much will the assets drop by? can it to the 2007 and 2008 levels? 2007 and touch the 2008 levels? >> 2007-2008 was a liquidity

crisis. there was no liquidity in the market. are seeing a huge institutional interest in u.k. property. i don't what to sound too cynical but the retail investor selling near the bottom and the institutional investor from abroad coming in and taking advantage of the week currency and lower prices. anna: we are not seeing international investors, this is the retail investor taking money out? >> we are getting calls from all over the world. would you like to sell us your assets? we are taking a cautious view. 500 million pounds of liquidity in the front. lets you happens if we opened today. our intention is to open today. a coupleuched on different things there. the pound is the worst

performing thing, even worse than the argentinian peso. is that drop going to put a floor -- first of all, is the run on the pound done? and will it put a floor on exiting british assets? >> a think it will. british assets are no cheap to the international investor. as i said this is not two dozen seven or 2008. the world is awash with liquidity looking for yield. there's nothing better than property. >> is this something very specific to the euro property -- does it read across and to other assets or other funds? intois feeding through other investor concerns? >> not yet. one of the worries is mark carney has brought this up, the regulator has cropped this up.

in liquiditymatch here. we have daily liquidity funds invested in assets that don't have daily liquidity or they do as long as you're prepared to take a hefty discount. the other asset classes we were all concerned about bond markets. in thectually happened commercial property markets because it is always where you least expect it. it could go into bonds. i don't think so. >> there is still this desire for io. >> are going to see them change their attitude? hindsighte benefit of we should have reviewed it in 2007 and 2008. i hope we do at this time because i think if the industry takes the lead on this or the regulator takes the lead with the industry we could get a sensible structure here.

then people know, i can only get my money out at the end of the month or whatever it might be. >> we have quite a bit more to get through. that is the ceo of aberdeen management. anna: up next, drifting world economy. going nowhere fast. we discussed global growth up next. ♪

anna:, this is "countdown." what looks to be a fairly gloomy looking london, let's get the bloomberg business flash. >> but it started with standard chartered here because the bank has started its first brokerage business in japan with about 100 employees. 20 them will sell emerging-market products with the potential for fast growth here. insurance, ande

asset managers. master the bank posted their first loss since 1989. india is searching for a partner in europe after the brexit vote. preliminary talks over a possible joint venture. they are also reviewing bids in u.k. assets after the sources said at least four companies pulled out following the referendum. >> the ultimate fighting championship is reportedly set to announce as early as today that the business has been sold. citing people with direct knowledge of the matter, the league is expected to be bought aboutthe talent giant for $4 billion. names linked to the deal include private equity heavyweight kkr

and the investment firm of the billion or. >> thank you. rolling with the punches just like on "countdown.". -- growth has screwed it numerous had words test. it looks as if it's set to do the same again this year. >> the aberdeen asset management ceo mark gilbert is still with us here in the studio. mark let's talk a little bit about emerging-market assets. just as the u.k. in the commercial property industry is giving you headache something you had faith in for some time is starting to deliver a little bit for you. >> we have been waiting 3.5 years for them to come back in fashion and we have been overweight so our performance year to date has been really very good and you are right,

these countries are growing. the companies are well managed. they are growing well and the yields on emerging-market bonds are at least positive. there is a lot to go for emerging markets. is a lovely stat here. the bonds are in a seven-week high compared to equity bonds. last amiga together with attachments sovereign wealth fund redemptions. is it definitely in the past? what kind of flows into the bonds are you seeing? >> let's not get ahead of ourselves here. we're just not sing outflows at the same level as we were. hopefully this will be a big improvement on that. that is the question at the optimism in oil has slowed down the outflows from them.

some of them had structural deficits in their economies that had to fund. we are not sing that level happening now. >> one of the big macro themes that links and with this that you and many others are having to deal with is this low interest rate environment. we have been talking but the drift economy all morning not going anywhere fast but also not thinking. what are your expectations for interest rates? x i am in the lower for longer cap that we have consistently got interest rates run from 2008 to 2009. i think there is a reasonable chance of a cut in the u.k. and i don't see interest rates going up in july, or september in the u.s.. we are in the world of very low reason peoplehe are looking at commercial property emerging-market bonds. those sort of asset classes.

>> let's talk about them. what creates bubbles. >> that's the question. this dis-inflationary environment, i've just government bonds here for you. u.s. treasury yields and the question is this. thethe great debate, does u.s. hike even have a chance this year. do you think that u.s. yields could go sub 1%. ? i don't think that they will. i do think that we will see a hike later this year. an envious in position. if they don't put them up people worry and if they put them up people worry. i think it is the lesser of two evils to do very marginal rate increases. >> one of our colleagues was writing recently talking about, get on with it, put up rates. asia andg that in japan it is obvious, but

elsewhere this is just having a dampening effect rather than encouraging spending. >> there is an argument for that. i am in the more cautious cap. i would keep interest rates low until we know we are seeing some growth coming through in the economies. it's good to see the jobless figures looking so healthy. that is a better indicator than anything else. >> shinzo abe is on the take saying let's make the most of it. world,veled around the you traveled to many parts of the world that others don't get to. what do you think we need if we are in the slow growth drift world, what do we need in addition to 0%? fiscal spending something that resonates with you? 0.25%hink we could hit but i'm in the camp that we

should be spending more on infrastructure, borrowing long-term here with these low rates and spending on infrastructure. i'm not suggesting we go completely mad but it is such a great opportunity to invest in infrastructure. part of the waste of the government's account which is cash flow accounting. you don't differentiate between what you are spending on capital expenditure and the current account deficit. so i am very much of the view that you spend on infrastructure if you traveled around the world and the emerging-market economy, they are spending high-speed rail, roads whenever it might be. >> you must have a few choice words and private or and public for the u.k. political establishment. what do make of the u.k. political scene at the moment and where we stand in this vacuum? >> just when we need leadership

we don't have any. i was watching andy murray street and he said the job of the prime minister was tougher than winning wimbledon he said which is brilliant. management we are not too affected because we are he had our funds in luxembourg. we already had european hubs. for banks and insurance companies with pass porting it is more tricky than for us. >> what is osborne and whoever the new prime minister what do they need to do to make written? everybody voted for brexit, you are promised this independence and sovereignty. what do we need to do question mark do we need 15% tax? do to jumpneed to the rubicon to jump the concern between now and what we when we know what brexit really is. >> just leadership.

the whole world is open for us now. i think there is more chance of doing trade deals with the u.s. than we perhaps had through the eu with to tip or whatever it might be. i think it is a huge opportunity we just have to grasp it. not talk ourselves into a recession. >> do think we're doing that question my >> i don't think so. i think as i say with commercial property and the commercial property funds, at least there is a lot of liquidity around and a lot of buyers at a price. thank you so much for giving us your time and your insight. of aberdeen asset management martin gilbert. >> thank you for spending the hour with us. that is it for "countdown. manus cranny is staying in that seat. guy johnson is life at the air show. .e will be joined

if i did to talk about with regard to the defense industry and how the brexit conversation impacts on the investors and the people who make aircraft to our assembling at that show. see live pictures there. >> finding a relationship can be like finding a needle in a haystack --

manus: welcome to "on the move." we are counting down to the european open. i'm manus cranny alongside caroline hyde in berlin. caroline, good morning. asian stocks soar. european markets higher after a strong jobs report aegis concerns. the japanese prime minister promises broader, boulder economic measures after a decisive