tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg July 13, 2016 10:00am-11:01am EDT
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bloomberg television. ♪ mark: it is a huge day for u.k. politics as david cameron ends his tenure as prime minister. theresa may prepares to take over, bringing a new era as sterling heads for its longest rally in two months. vonnie: investors are looking past exit with stocks continuing to recover after the brexit vote. jeffrey sees a rush into bonds as madness. german 10 years in the negative for the first time ever. mark: is donald trump ready to take his vp? you will never guess where bloomberg spotted the gop presumptive nominee meeting with a highly rumored possible running mate. vonnie: it's an exciting day,
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but we are about 30 minutes into the trading day. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie: less exciting if you look at stocks. u.s. politics are quite exciting , but we are seeing little change right now after the dow and s&p close to record gains. any gains today would be another record for the major averages, but we are not there at the moment. the s&p falling back at the moment. the nasdaq gaining a little bit of ground, but we are seeing a mixed to little change market. even after we see this continuing rally in u.s. stocks, we'll talk about how it is an unloved rally. yet another measure of that is fund flows in the u.s. we have g #btv 2036. this is the upward climb that we have seen. here are fund flows. we have actually seen some outflows from the u.s. equity funds and that reflects again the story of mixed sentiment or
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at least confuse sentiment about u.s. stocks. getting back to individual movers here, let's take a look at the airlines coming out with their june traffic numbers. american airlines surged yesterday on a new credit card agreement. shares of slightly today after it set second quarter passenger revenue will be down 6-7%. jetblue in the meantime is up about 3.5%. juneraffic was up 11.6% in even as mets a measure of revenue fell by 4.5%. today astching teva the company saying it is imminent its acquisition of allergan generic unit. the company is coming out with preliminary earnings ahead of estimates. that is helping the stock today. we're watching once again what is going on with rates today. a reversal after that big today gain in yields.
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the selloff in price was the biggest we have seen so far this year. the yield falling for basis points to 1.47%. i will be back at 10:30 a.m. with oil inventories. let's send it over to you. mark: we are holding on to our gains by the smallest margin. the stoxx 600 up by 10 to 1%, the fifth consecutive daily increase. this gauge has risen by 5.7%. it is still 2.7% below the close of june 23. of sterling dollar has four days gains. that is the longest winning streak since may 19 this year. in the last four days, the pound has risen against all 31 of its major peers. it has rebounded from a 31 2798day low of one dollar $1.2798.ollar 2
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it is a four-day rally and it equates to 2.8%. i do love this chart. ssets under david cameron -- david cameron took over as uk prime minister in may 2010. we have charted how the assets have fared since then. u.k. bonds have risen roughly 50%. the light blue line, the ftse 100, roughly 25% higher. my favorite line is sterling against the dollar because up until june 23, sterling was sitting on just a small gain against the dollar from the beginning of david cameron's tenure. you know what happened on june 23. you know what happened june 24. since then, sterling has fallen by double digits, meaning david cameron under his tenure is down by double digits. if you take out june 24 two
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today, sterling is little changed against the dollar. and wonderful chart and good news today for burberry. slightly beating analyst estimates as u.k. shoppers step up purchases. has been a big week of changes at the top of management. the top performers up by 30%. the worst performer is down by 34%. burberry is 13% lower. it was up 8% earlier. let us check in with bloomberg first word news right now. .mma chandra has the latest emma: a federal appeals court has denied tom brady a new hearing on his deflategate decision. nfl commissioner roger goodell was within his power when he suspended the star quarterback for games for his role in deflating footballs in a
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football game. in japan, the cabinet cut its forecast for growth and inflation. japan's outlook for growth in this current fiscal year went to 9/10 of a percent. consumer prices are expected to rise 4/10 of a percent. japan's prime minister has ordered his ministers to come up with a stimulus package. meanwhile, the emperor akihito says he intends to abdicate at some point in the future. that is according to japanese tv network. he has been emperor since his father died in 1989. china is not backing down from its claims over the south china sea. it has come out with a new policy a day after international tribunal said china has no legal basis for its claim to more than 80% of the waters. china asserted sovereignty over much of the south china sea
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region and opposes what it calls other countries the legal claims of occupation. bombings in iraq's capital have killed at least four people, including a suicide bombing in a mainly shiite knee neighborhood. up to 23 other people were wounded. no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, which bore the hallmarks of islamic state. global news powered by journalists and analysts and countries, this is bloomberg. mark: and a couple of hours, david cameron will head to buckingham palace to tender his resignation to the queen. he will then ask theresa may to form government. came and took the opportunity to welcome may. >> first of all, let me say that i congratulate the secretary on
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the comi becoming prime ministe. when it comes to women prime ministers, i am very pleased to say that it will be soon two-nil. mark: for more on what comes next, ryan chilcote joins us now outside downing street. what can we expect for the rest of the day? are alle big moment we waiting for is one theresa may obviously becomes prime minister. that is going to happen at buckingham palace. she will be received by the queen. it will have a quick chat. the queen will invite theresa may to perform government. that is the moment when she officially becomes the second woman prime minister in the country since margaret thatcher. she will then head to 10 downing street where she is going to make a speech just before 6:00
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p.m., at least what everyone is expecting. is a hugely symbolic an important moment in british politics. it is one of the biggest jobs to lead this country out of the european union and negotiate over the next couple of years, maybe several years the country's new relationship with the european union. that is all today. the next big thing we will be waiting for is who is she going to appoint to her cabinet. who is going to be on her team? mark: that is the big one. there are some in a key positions to fill. there is this new brexit star and the chancellor. what do we know? ryan: you just said it there. the brexit czar is perhaps one of the most important posts in the new government. it is a post that has never existed before because we only got brexit on june 23.
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, who ran theresa may's campaign for leadership of the conservative party, is thought to be the front runner. ,e had also campaign for brexit for britain to leave the european union. philip hammond is considered to be the front runner for chancellor. become britain's next fiv finance minister, succeeding george osborne . we will have to see what comes to the rest of the post. some people from david cameron's cabinet may remain. we are told to expect a lot of new faces. david cameron just retreats to the back benches and turns up as usual? ryan: yes. it will be very interesting. he is going to come out of 10 downing street and make a statement. and then he goes to buckingham palace. this is before theresa may,
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where he will officially say goodbye and cease to be the uk's prime minister. he announced his resignation in the aftermath of the referendum on the 23rd. it's going to be very difficult for him. if you think about it, he is stepping down at the age of 49 co. he will have been the youngest prime minister to give up power in 112 years. he served for six years. that citation was that he could serve for another four years. he did not do a lot of the things he wanted to do. mostly he spent the first four or five years focused on the economy and then preparing this country for that referendum that happened june 23. do not forget that it was his idea. he campaigned for britain to remain in the european union. we all know he lost that referendum. as a result, he decided he should lose his job as well and
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the summer. the company just saying in a release that it saw worldwide prime day of sales up 60% year-over-year. channel advisor said that prime day sales were little changed were unchanged from 2015. it may have been measuring that on a comparable basis. in other words, like for like sales as you can measure same-store sales at a brick-and-mortar retailers. that is what may have accounted for the discrepancy. i been reading through the release what percentage of these sales were third-party sellers versus amazon direct sales. it is talking about that big increase. the company says it is the biggest sales day for it ever, in particular for devices. you can see shares reversing earlier losses. they're only up 6/10 of 1%, but still reversing a 50% gain in u.s. sales year-over-year yesterday. vonnie: wherever you look and
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go, the fallout from the brexit vote is under control. tuesday's rally pushed the dow and s&p 500 to new heights. if you look at bloomberg right now, stocks are in line with wall street expectations. our next guest starred as the biggest ball on the street. but the bullishness quickly tempered, lowering his target to 2175, which is still above where we are. tony dwyer joins us now. i have to ask if the stabilization is not just a possible for the bank of england tomorrow. tony: we need applause when you have this kind of a ramp. i want to make it very clear. i'm super bullish. when you dropped to the deaths that you did, it was historically so severe that you absolutely wanted to buy it, but you should not expect such significant upset. i almost should not have changed
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the target, but we took a breath from the bank of england and from the fed at the republican announcement on friday. you are up so much that it could create a little bit of choppiness. vonnie: what will be the catalyst? will be central banks or a better earnings season? tony: but we have been talking about the last month and a half is not what to go wrong but what could go right. everyone is focused on what could go wrong and what is going right is that u.s. economic activity has pivoted and turn higher despite the brexit. services and manufacturing, the payroll numbers beat expectations. you get this groundswell of a little improvement in u.s. economic activity. it is too early to say that brings it is going to shut down total growth. if you look at the leading indicators in china, japan, indonesia, and sub the amount, you're talking about an acceleration in the leading
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indicators. what if you get greater global growth in the street expects? what if u.s. growth is better?? you get this real inflection higher of earnings were some people are focused on peak earnings and peak margins. what if it's not? what if all of a sudden you have a pickup? mark: had we seen the worst of the brexit impacts on global markets? i know would take a brave man to say yes, but what is your feeling? tony: i'm glad he phrased it that way. tv is filled with guys like me try to pretend they are experts in things they are not. i am not a brexit expert. the input that i'm getting and from what the market is telling you is that a created a shock day. that's a very important thing because the downside you had on that shot day created a response rebound. that is just as important as downside. i think the market forecasted what could go wrong with it and it's now kind of neutralized.
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going back to my current feeling , you get a little bit of choppy action as you find out what the new prime minister happens going over the next month. mark: this is an unloved market and how many times we have said that, i've lost count of. i'm talking about the u.s. bull market. this chart that julie showed earlier highlights that. it shows u.s. equity fund flows versus the blue line, which is the s&p 500. we have seen outflow since the third quarter. why is it so unloved and what does this chart tell us? tony: a lot of money is going from active passive management unfortunately. that can be skewing it, but it has been. here's an interesting step that most people don't know and i got from my staff. basically since the february love, we have had more money into etf's. those are betting against upside
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and then he had money going into levered long etf's. it has happened over the last six years. not only is it not a love market, it is apathy. what i get universally is this apathetic view. fund managers are in it will quandary. if you did not get on board when the market was weak, it is tough to chase it up from the february lows. over time, i think that is exactly what you should do. we are looking at another 10%-50% upside. vonnie: monzon yields are at record lows. -- bonds and yields are record lows. how long does that continue? tony: i think it is over. i was looking this morning on the 10 day rate of change. only in three other times at history have you dropped over 10 days like we recently have. since 2008, you're going to get a response rally.
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we are not in the financial crisis were yields are going to come down so hard. the search for yield globally has impacted treasuries. rather than look at what rates are going to do, what is the impact on stocks? it is incredibly stimulative to have the long end of the curve come down like it has without moving up on the short end. it is a very important thing. i'm sure the fed has changed. mark: thanks for coming in, tony dwyer. still ahead, bond investor jeffrey gundlach warns that the starvation for yield is creating "mass psychosis." is the market listening? we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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mark: live in london, i mark barton. this is bloomberg television. vonnie: after the russian to bonds last week, it will be a hard time to make money, all according to jeffrey gone lot. he says there is something of a mass psychosis going on related to the so-called starvation for yield. call me old-fashioned, but i don't like investments where you do not make any money. it seems like the market is not really ready to listen. mark: check out the latest auction in germany. this is the 10 year bond auction that took place earlier. for the first time, germany sold 10 year yields with a negative yield for the first time. tommy about the u.s. treasury yield low. vonnie: you can see it's all over the place really. this is the two year at 66 basis points. if we look at the 10 year and my terminal, just type in u.s. gigi
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10 year index and you can see that is also at 147 basis points here. the two cents spread has 80 basis points. a real flattening there, so he has a point. mark: it is quite incredible. this is showing the extent that investors are going to find yields. germany selling 10 year bonds with a negative yield for the first time ever. the nation is selling the 0% bond due in august 2026 at an average yield of -.05% after yields of existing bonds in the secondary market dropped to an all-time low of .205 last year. the negative yield essentially means that investors by securities and hold them until maturity. they will receive less than they pay. this is the other chart i want to show you. i know you're going to show me an equivalent chart in just a second.
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this is the dividend yield year andhe german 10 the s&p 500. t. gap is 400 basis points it is the widest since bloomberg started tracking data since 2002. you have got a similar chart, haven't you? vonnie: the s&p dividend yield trouncing and we have seen money flocking into utilities. all the same, we had a money manager saying that if you look at the swiss 10 year, the u.s. tenured is looking pretty attractive. still ahead, we will look at the potential donald trump vp picks. ♪ get ready for the rio olympic games
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by switching to xfinity x1. show me gymnastics. x1 lets you search by sport, watch nbc's highlights and catch every live event on your tv with nbc sports live extra. i'm getting ready. are you? x1 will change the way you experience nbcuniversal's coverage of the rio olympic games. call or go online today to switch to x1. vonnie: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york and london, i am vonnie quinn. mark: you are watching bloomberg television. vonnie: we are waiting on
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breaking news for oil inventory. fluctuation in oil prices? julie: oil is down right now. -- the average estimate is for a drawdown. we have a gap here. it will be interesting to see where it shakes out. the drawdown is larger than estimated. 2.5 million barrels. gasoline inventories showing a build, an interesting time. 1.2 million barrels. rising by 4.0 6 million barrels. so interesting, the drawdown in crude inventory but an unexpected bills in ethylene and distillate inventories. which would not necessarily be a positive sign. you see the fluctuation behind me. reduce tend to see a fluctuation in the half hour following.
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if you want to take a look at the bloomberg we can give you the updated trades. the gyrations in the wake of the report but oil prices are taking a further leg lower. down by 2% in the wake of the report. we will keep going through the details and bring you the update on this in half an hour when i check back in with you. right now, this does not look like a bullish report for oil prices, despite the laker -- despite the larger than estimated drawdown in crude. it is a little bit curious when everyone is driving for their summer vacations to see building gasoline. g.i. 45.64.ie time to check in on the bloomberg first word news. --our newsroom in new york in london actually in fact. >> on the first anniversary of the nuclear agreement with iran,
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the congress wants to derail the deal. the house is scheduled to vote on three proposals that would invoke various sanctions on iran. shows donald trump gaining momentum in swing states. the poll, donald trump beat hillary clinton in florida. less than a month ago, she had an eight point lead. front inump has action pennsylvania and they remain tied in ohio. that 44% ofsays americans pay no federal income tax. according to analysts at the tax policy center, that is either because of low income or refundable tax credits. married couples do not need to file a return if their gross income is less than a $21,000 a year. congress has not been able to
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agree on funding to tackle the zika virus. that is likely to delay government research into a vaccine. democrats have blocked republicans $2.1 billion zika bill. that is because it would also deny new money for planned parenthood. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world. vonnie: duke republican national convention starts money -- starts monday. donald trump was seen arriving today at the indiana home of governor mike pence. there is speculation he could be the top contender for the vice president. newt gingrich and chris christie are on the short list. for now, we go to michael bender. what do we know about the conversation? michael: well, but we know is that they are doing the getting
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to know you face the between mike pence and donald trump. the has been a lot of speculation that mike pence might be the front-runner but when it comes to the three top choices for donald trump between mike pence, newt gingrich and chris christie, hence and trump have almost no relationship compared to the other two. so they have been doing lots of "get to know you." -- donaldng they trump has brought along his children, who are becoming increasingly important. vonnie: mike pence does have experience. socially conservative. doesn't donald trump have a lot of those constituencies already? what would he add? michael: for one, it would help to unite the base behind donald trump. that is one thing that could definitely help donald trump. he has been the presumptive
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nominee for two months. and the party is as divided as it has been. donald trump has improved on the trail to become more disciplined, giving speeches using a teleprompter. staying on message better. but it is still a fractured party behind him. mike pence could reassure a lot of people. he is a longtime politician. he is very skilled in handling the media and staying on message. donald trump wants to keep the spotlight on him, if he wants this campaign to be only about him, mike pence will help them do that. as opposed to chris christie or newt gingrich who have precarious personalities that demand headlines. poll, theave this swing state poll, which shows that hillary clinton's lead in florida -- and she did have a healthy lead a month ago, has vanished. does this tell us that the bad press surrounding the private e-mail server saga is taking its
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toll on her? yes, it tells us how fluid the race is. i will say that the pool has been a little bit of an outlier in some of the battleground states. they have consistently shown the race closer in some of these states than other polls have. chokerid, this poll did eight points ahead in florida a few weeks ago. and now, within the margin of error. also in the margin of error for ohio and pennsylvania. this is not good news for clinton anyway you slice it. i think it goes back to the news conference that the fbi director james comey had. it really called into question the trust issue for hillary clinton. which is really her big deal in the election. mark: something else that has been called into question is the
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ruth bader ginsburg. he is calling on her to resign from the u.s. supreme court after she said he was a faker. i suppose she thrust herself into the presidential debate maybe a little bit further than many feel comfortable? remarkables, it is to have a back-and-forth and forth between a presumptive nominee and one of the supreme court justices. but it goes to show ruth bader ginsburg's comfort level. she has been doing this for a long time. she has a job for life. be something to watch, for sure, moving forward. and i suppose that she feels that donald trump inserted himself so she can maybe insert herself into the executive branch. tell us a little bit about --lary clinton might make a will she take away the limelight of donald trump's the people it? michael: she is in illinois
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today. and she is going to be trying to coalesce bernie sanders supporters. we saw that start yesterday. and it will be her game for the rest of the week. and also, some of the names of picks areresidential coming out. and that will help her take away little bit of the news from donald trump. getmore she can do to bernie sanders support behind it will be for her heading into the convention. you a lot. that was michael bender joining us from cleveland. 10:38 in new york. colleges are sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars in endowment money. why isn't it used to lower the tuition burden on students? we are 52 minutes away from the
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end of the wednesday session in london. all eyes on 10 downing street and buckingham palace. david cameron is due to make his final journey to see the queen before theresa may takes the reins as prime minister. the dow jones is marginally up at record levels. the s&p is unchanged. the nasdaq is up. have a look at european gains. stocks are up. the longest winning stretch since june 23. 5.7.toxx 600 is up by have a look at the currency markets. something special has happened to sterling. it has risen, not something it has done since may 19. risen against all of its major peers in the last four days. stirling is now marginally lower against the dollar. the euro is up against the dollar. the pound is a little bit down
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it is offering a bounty. vonnie: colleges are sitting on billions of dollars of endowment money. why isn't it being used to give students a tuition break? theresa in london where may's most-watched act will be naming a brexit start. exiting the european union will require finesse. i'll financial markets have rebounded sharply since the recession, strategists say the country is still facing economic headwind. thee have cut numbers in u.k. and europe because we think the major impact of this vote will create a huge amount of uncertainty by investment in the u.k. and may affect consumer spending. mark: it may be the beginning of superjumbo.he the company will cut production of the plane as demand has
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fallen far short of projection. by 2018, airbus will make only one. the company once predicted a 380es would buy 1200 eight but only 193 have been delivered. law allows hungary and authorities to suspend ride hailing the lapse if they operate without the necessary permits. has changed after complaints from taxi companies and drivers. fiat chrysler has an offer for good guy hackers to find issues withgs and the software. they will pay you up to $1500. they are working with the crowd sourced hacking company. companies area seeking closer ties with facebook.
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but murdoch seems skeptical. murdoch's wall street journal only offers up the technology stories. they have held talks with facebook about expanding the relationship. they paper wants to avoid giving away too much content. time for the bloomberg quick take where we provide context and background on issues of interest. big college endowments are an american phenomenon. critics are asking whether endowments are doing enough to help students at a time of soaring educational debt? is just helping the richest schools get richer? harvard isn't the only school with lots of money. 812 u.s.ments of the universities that responded to a server he amounted to more than $500 million. $500 billion.
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here is the background. long played an essential role in the rise of some colleges. eastmant from george helped make the university of rochester one of the richest universities. donations come in flurries over the recent years. grown bys have adopting aggressive investment techniques. today, some schools with big endowments and smaller student bodies -- princeton, amherst -- they derive half their operating budgets from endowments. a congressional research service report estimated that cutting the endowment by a 35% rate would have produced $25 billion. and the cost of tax reductions
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claimed by colleges amounted to $6.3 billion a year. those benefits go to beat schools. one advocacy group estimated was $6 billion a year needed to fund president barack obama's plan to make community college free could be raised by a sliding scale tax between .5%-2.5% with a college endowment. that is your global business report. for more stories, visit bloomberg.com. still ahead, exploring the high seas in style. we will show you the latest in cruise luxury. ♪
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bloomberg. seven seas is launching the newest cruise ship today in monaco. is being touted as the most luxurious ship ever built. ceo ofel rio is the norwegian cruise lines and he joins us now from aboard the cruise line in monte carlo. there isn't an ounce of envy between me and mark. we are very happy for you that you are in want to go in the sunshine. about launching a luxury liner at a time when the political situation and economic situation is uncertain in europe? good morning. wish you were here with us in the heart of the french riviera in monte carlo, it is a beautiful day. i am aboard the world's most luxurious cruise ship, i couldn't ask for more. great time tos a
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launch a new luxury vessel. especially this one. the demand for this has been through the roof since the day we opened up for business 18 months ago. the wayold out all through the end of 2016 and a good part of 2017. and the kind of customer that we on the ship in particular, they are very resilient. especially to economic ups and downs. resilient to the kinds of geopolitical events that we have seen here. tono, this is a great time launch the vessel and i'm very glad we did. vonnie: where are your customers primarily coming from at the moment? is there a part of the world where they're coming from where the euro is cheap for them or they haven't had the hit on oil? for example? regent sevenow, it isffers three brands,
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a north american centric company. about 80% of our business comes from north america. source mid-high single digits from the u.k. with the rest of the world contributing the balance. so heavily towards the u.s. and the u.s., the economy is doing well and as long as the u.s. economy does well, we do well. even in tougher times, the industry has shown its resiliency. so you know, this is the type of industry where you built the ship and they will come. this vessel is no exception. mark: the line that got me was "the most luxurious ship you ever built." a, prove it. b, was there a benchmark before you? how does one go about the process of becoming the most luxurious ship ever built?
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the first thing you do is take no shortcuts. talk to your customers. we did focus groups. we want to know what they wanted on a cruise. if you walk throughout the vessel, and you can see that luxury and timeless elegance abounds everywhere. whether it is in the amount of space that is dedicated. it is a 56,000 ton ship. they are not cabins, suites. they all have big balconies. you can really lounge and enjoy. for gourmet restaurants. the sweet that you mentioned comes with everything you can think of, it including a guide at every single port to allow you to enjoy that destination to its fullest. it comes with a 24 hour a day butler. p&l designed by
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dakota jackson. number one bed. i had the pleasure of sleeping on that bed for the last five or six days. it is difficult to sleep through the night but i have been sleeping through the night every single day and i love it. mark: you have sold me. frank, $10,000 for that sweet. talk to me about brexit. inyou are spending that pounds, it has just gone up. will there be any brexit impact on you? or not? you know, we haven't seen it. he had been monitoring the bookings across the three brands since the day devote was tallied and you saw what happened to the stock market. the evaluations immediately after but we are at an all-time high in the s&p and the dow. so i don't think the consumers
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had time to react. so far, no negative implications. our business in the u.k. and eu are as good today as they were prior to the vote. own stock is down about 24% today. so it isn't at an all-time low planything, but how do you on satisfying investors a little more? is there a strategy? i'm not sure i heard the entire question, i think you ask how we keep investors satisfied? vonnie: yes, how do you move the needle on the stock? frank: well, you keep performing. ofhave a track record growing earnings per share in the double digits, year after year. 2016 won't be any different. we are looking forward to 2017.
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we are ahead of where we were this time last year. as long as we keep performing, sooner or later, the discretionary consumer stocks will be back in favor. we have seen a 12% uptick from a week ago.ut mark: thanks a lot. good luck to you. rio there, the chief executive officer of the norwegian cruise line. all eyes on 10 downing street awaiting david cameron to head to buckingham palace. ♪
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trading day. you are watching the european close on bloomberg markets. ok, we take you from new york to london to japan in the next hour. here is what we are watching. day in the u.k.. david cameron makes his final minister. as prime he is heading to buckingham palace any minute now to give his resignation to the queen. theresa may is waiting in the wings to take the realm as prime minister and lead her country to exit. at who she isk likely to pick in the leadership positions. upk: and stocks are moving as investors see volatility falling off.
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