get to julie hyman at the markets desk with the university of michigan data. those numbers on retail sales came in better than estimated. here it is coming in worse than estimated. deskis a preliminary preliminary reading for july. at 89.5.sentiment 89.5 is what we've got. that is a little bit worse than estimated and the expectation, how are people feeling about the future. in contrast with some of the numbers we got earlier today on things like consumer level inflation and retail sales, this number coming in worse than estimated.

theaps reflecting some of sentiment out of the u.k. vote. the timing of this survey could prove to be important. stocks are holding onto gains just barely. any gain would be a record close for the dow. let's talk about citigroup and wells fargo. citigroup coming out ahead of estimates. wells fargo just matching estimates. we have also been watching travel stocks this morning in the wake of that attack. a lot of concern about the a fact that will have on global travel. being hit by an analyst downgrade.

and coming to a settlement with the federal trade commission after a probe into the company. shares are surging 18%. also giving karo icon the ability to raise his stake to nearly 35%. abilitycarl icahn the to raise his stake to nearly 35%. terror attack where 80 people have been killed and another further 20 critically injured. red is the predominant lor. all these currencies dropping against the dollar. commodities led by gold, lower today. noting the impact of past terror attacks has proven short-lived.

we had bombings on a majority commuter train here in 2004 and 2005. do not forget that. this is the travel and leisure index. yes it is the worst performing industry group. nds year to date it is 60% lower, 8% drop. company declining. the big corporate story we are focusing on, shares slumping as much as 14%. thisatchmaker reporting collapsed nonprofit, showing how has been inector markets like france and switzerland.

sterling on track for its best week since 2009 against the dollar. france toead over to cover our other big story of the day. a truck drove into a crowd celebrating bastille day. care lien is live in paris. can you give us what the latest responses from the government? >> the latest is the concern about the amount injured that could make this death toll rise further. president honan was speaking about an hour ago. he was very emotional speaking about the amounts of young

children you had among the victims and the injured. event. a family 30,000 people on the waterfront. a lot of families were impacted. also a preview to the police for two- after he drove kilometers more into the crowd last night. the interesting thing we heard from president honan in the past -- president aland -- president hollande, he did not disclose any accomplishes. -- any accomplices. just right now being a question we should learn more about the

investigation from france law or longed in about one hour from now. >> reporting from paris. he is a french member of parliament, he end his family were close to the scene. where were you when the attack took place and have you been to the scene of this tragic incident? >> i was off the crossroads. i was fortunate in that sense. just going away in a different direction.

people were wondering what was happening. they were still wondering in the city. there was a strong feeling, a deep feeling of uncertainty. pamela supposed to be a national day with the fireworks. >> now we have three days of mourning in france. france appears to be unique among the western countries that are being targeted. what specific policies do you think she needed to these >> we areattacks? engaged with the serious question of the islamic state. we have been confronted with different terrorist attacks in different zones. we know the labor of the threat in most ofest one

the western countries. the different types of attacks entering to use -- we have to prevent other attacks. maybe more inflammation -- more information -- we have a terrorist organization in the -- >> in adequate policing, and failure to integrated north african immigrants.

cited as causes for the three major terror attacks we have months.the past few what has been done to counter those? >> we have to be really careful because most of the terror attacks were made by -- it is a very hard question for ways.king in different we had a terror attack on the competition. you have individuals acting like you have with whole -- with president holland. actually it's hard because you need to maintain freedom and

, otherwise we would be in a state of -- that is exactly what we want to do. test you point out the distinction between homegrown terrorists and those that come over from abroad. do you believe there is enough of a recognition among the elite when they say there are politicians who say immigration is a problem. >> many people died from many nationalities. we have to be careful when we make those kinds of statements. to just be able to -- we think

the solution was there. and in the middle east. as far as we are doing with the we won't over there -- be able to leave in a safer situation. >> a french member of parliament. let's check in with bloomberg first world news. more in new york. >> donald trump is planning unveiling his running mate. until the weekend after those deadly attacks in france. the violence comes after your presumptive presidential nominee had chosen mike pence as his running mate.

there has been pushed back from the campaign. a new poll shows a single digit lead over donald trump in four key states. that is according to the new survey. the former secretary of state leads trump by six points among registered voters in north carolina. nine in virginia. talks between russian president and u.s. secretary of state john kerry failed to bring the two countries to a deal in syria. that is according to a kremlin that directs antiterrorism coordination. ascharacterized the meeting productive. and a report by china's cabinet. an investigation into the lance

like that killed 73 people back in december. it destroyed 33 buildings and directed economic losses. sailor has been sentenced to -- s,is incident and other including the alleged rape and murder of a woman, has inflamed anti-us-based sentiment. about 50,000 u.s. troops in japan. global news more than 24 hours per day. more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg mark -- bloomberg. we will discuss the market with a global strategist in j.p. morgan asset management, $1.7 trillion. this is bloomberg.

scarlet: you're watching bloomberg markets. 20 years.en here for this the first time we have been on set together. since we are in europe, european today.did drift lower and other deadly attack did killed eight people in the coastal town of nice. joining us is the global strategist at j.p. morgan asset management, which oversees $1.7 trillion. if you look at the reaction in the markets, there doesn't seem to be much outside some

companies falling. you believe the impact will be short-lived and by then we will be at fundamentals? >> the human cost of this tragedy are incalculably large. there is no way we can quantify that. when you look at history and the effective terrorist attacks on markets, we have come to the don't tendthat these to change these market outcomes. tos doesn't usually tend change our strategic and long-term changing about investments. the reaction may have been more muted as time goes on. some suggesting the markets are getting used to it.

i would be cautious in using that interpretation because there have some complex interactions. some very idiosyncratic factors and non--- and nonlinearities. using that as a means of forecasting the reaction of future events like this. >> in part to one of the reason why the markets tend to come back quickly. especially in recent years due to the nature of global central banks. >> i think that is part of it. large financial shots and economic challenges to the global economy. the brexit in june was not an isolated event. back in august and january, and i again in june.

it is not a coincidence. and tectonic shifts in the structure of the global economy. are riding your bicycle on uneven terrain, you are prone to tipping over. the good news is the global economy tipped over. that it will be resilient to this one as well. is thatthat resiliency central banks have been moving more aggressively in response to those shocks. it has become part of the adjustment process. call it is something we the drift economy. shifting,l policy doesn't that encourage one-sided positioning where everybody is going out on the risk spectrum in search of yield? specifictes

distortions, doesn't it? >> the most pronounced manifestation of that affect is in fixed income markets, where bond yields are really low. this question is what our bond markets telling us? the monetary policy reaction. i can even go one step further there is something that is amplifying the moves in global bond yields, which is negative rates. i'm very sympathetic to this line of reasoning. chunks into the global fixed income market, it pushes people from those negative yielding markets and the positive yielding markets. there is something behavioral about it. something repugnant about negative rates that pushes investors into positive yielding

markets. that has amplified the volatility in those positive yielding markets. >> we can add the word repugnant to the labels and the bond market. it is a technical term, repugnant. it is a good word to pronounce. global strategist at j.p. morgan asset management. threeekly dive into the trillion dollar etf market.

mark: i am mark barton. scarlet: today is friday, so time for our weekly dive into

the etf markets. street the biggest wall banks are taking it with homegrown etf's. >> thank you, eric is with me in new york. we have the banks earnings reports said etf's are also a hot topic. what is the involvement at the etf world? >> if you look at wall street banks with the etf product unsecured debt obligations, people use them to avoid taxes in the etf structure. they have gone full on into etf offerings. this is to their attempt to ride the retail waves. a lot of projection shows the etf assets are going to double and triple over the next five

through 10 years, to the point where it could be 10 trillion globally. they are all coming out with etf product lines. offerings,their etf some of their efforts are paying off. at 37 billion that is less than 2%. >> even if they are not the issuer, the owner, the market makers. by the market making they make the piece of that. market making will give more revenue than offering etf's. market making the 2 billion and trade is 20 billion per year.

right now the market making is profitable. the etf issuing side will be more profitable than the market making side. it going to be hard for the banks to get a bigger piece of the market? >> the market is an error talker see. --is an error talk receive aristocracy. >> thank you so much. we will have much more coverage of bloomberg markets.

mark: you're watching bloomberg markets on bloomberg television.

we're literally one hour away from the close in euro -- and europe. we're down for the second day. up for the week, biggest weekly gain. today has been overshadowed by those tragic events on thursday evening. it is a reminder that the impact of past terrorist incidents have typically proven short-lived. >> there is a notable reaction. yethave the pound weakening test weakening today. the yen continues to weaken as well. waiting for word from shinzo all day on his promised stimulus. do we just keep watching the yen weekend until then? about what is happening

in the bond market? one of those strange dislocations where you see bond is falling and stocks falling. you have the tail end of the and the tory nomination election and in the changing of the guard at the top. and you thought it was going to be a quiet week. >> i thought nothing will happen. i will be quiet. amalek's check in with first word news today. lond -- france hollandnd -- francois

commended doctors and nurses, working through the night to save victims, as well as the officers who took out the attacker. >> they have been visited past few months after the attacks in november and paris. >> killing 84 and maiming dozens. about 50 people are between life and death. more on the attack shortly. and in scotland to deliver an important message. pledged to govern all interests in an attempt to mute calls for independence.

put out,es to including a scottish population that overwhelmingly favored staying in the eu. and people lined the streets to pay tribute and final respects to joke talks. -- to joe coxe. and china's economy stabilized in the second quarter after a policy makers stepped up fiscal policy support. industrial output and retail sales beat estimates while investments load. even as it raises questions about the sustainability of the expansion. news 24 hours per day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more

than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. gregory to paris where is standing by. we don't know his affiliation and no group has claimed responsibility has there. >> he is not a french citizen. there seems to be use -- there seems to be no links so far. that should lay out a lot more detail. the tv reporter spoke to his neighbors, apparently he is not religious at all. divorce.ng through a apparently a bit of a party

animal. it is still being treated as a terrorist attack by the authorities. france has been hit again and again by islamic terror. we should have more details on exactly who this fellow is when there is a press conference at 5:00. >> what measures do we expect? assertive,e more dutch more assertive measures to protect french citizen see? >> the country is already under a state of emergency. can put anyk you more policemen or soldiers in on the street. all the police units are at a breaking point. we had the riots during the strikes.

then we had the euro football championships. i'm not really sure we can do more. there seems to be some common sense things that don't really seem to be doing with the state of emergency. how did this truck it into a pedestrian area? after that he did manage to get into a pedestrian area and that is where the police got him and shot him. there are going to be a lot of questions coming up like that in the next few days. >> in practical terms, what does the state of emergency mean? >> you don't really notice it for the most part. the government can ban any large assemblies. all the demonstrations took place during the strikes. there are all sorts of

administration things they can do, they can put people under house arrest. people of being radicalized, they say you have to go home. were someearly mistakes and some people were able to get their house arrests overturned. clearly should not have been put under house arrest were. there were people who are put under house arrest who didn't like this guy, showing any signs of being a radical muslim at all. >> painting a very conflicted picture there in france. thank you for joining us from paris. let's take a look at this morning's earning reports. shares were in line with estimates.

joining us from our new york headquarters. generalize, how would you compare results to jpmorgan, which came out with better-than-expected profits, sales, and trading results? >> this is a rare quarter you are seeing. a good part was owning fixed income trading operations. a retailgo, largely commercial bank. i would caution the brags it happening at the second end of the quarter, a lot of down trading going on in the future. did we get any insight as to what impact brags it -- impact brexitags it -- the brag

may have? >> they said trading is fine. when we ask city the same question they say they can't answer that, there are too many variables. we do get the sense that they are trying to project this idea you should be optimistic, however they are trying to change their minds and say things are actually worse because of all the volatility and because of the lack of activity post brags it. brexit. brag >> was there any commentary from city or wells fargo? >> they are optimistic. asked us jpmorgan repeatedly if we are at an inflection point.

more than 100 million foreign loans than they did a year earlier. the party seems like it is going on for now. >> the trend has been countering stagnant revenue. where are we when it comes to expenses versus revenue? we saw fixed income revenues from jpmorgan and citigroup. how much more can these banks squeeze expenses to counter stagnant revenue? >> that has been the theme unfortunately. wells fargo, one reason they are trading down is because expenses has increased. they areven argue cutting into bone.

>> given that we have these , shouldn't that bode well for morgan stanley. when looking at their share prices today -- >> we have to look at what businesses have done well. particularly in currencies, i don't know that morgan stanley is known for those things. i think you are taking its name by name. >> for more on the earnings report, make sure to tune in later today for bloomberg's interview with the wells fargo cfo.

lauren buffett keeping his promise to give away his fortune. we will tell you where he just donated nearly $3 billion. this is bloomberg.

>> i am mark barton. >> and i am scarlet fu. this is your bloomberg business report. >> we will tell you why. scott bank warren buffett living up to his word to give away most of his fortune. he donated $3 billion to charity. mark: and the question that

valuations, potentially risky assets to property in china and london. the question is whether any of these values reflect this pricing. we will explore that question in today's quick take. england's chief economist says he will probably push officials to lower interest rates to boast an economy reeling in the aftermath. how he said a speech that evening, if he will be required to protect an economy caused by a downturn in the economy that could linger for years. policymakers need to find new tools. >> monetary policy is not the answer. they need much more effective fiscal policy and fiscal leaders have to understand that.

we got to have an effective fiscal policy. >> it is all cutting sales guidance as much as 60%. the maker of omega watches as they are increasing the society to maintain employees despite the slump. >> he plans to gradually give away his fortune. the stock was roughly worth $2.9 billion. thebiggest share went to bill and melinda gates foundation. it is time for our click take, where we provide context and backgrounds on issues of interest. sometimes people pay too much for things money.

telling them in real-time isn't easy. situation, there is little question of valuation ranging from u.s. junk bonds to property in china and luncheon -- and london. the question is whether any of these values reflect this pricing. this led to a search for higher yields. policymakers trying to keep a lid on the trend, they are simultaneously helping to fuel. even traditionally low risk assets have arguably entered territory. here is a background in historical case of -- one the bubble first, the scramble for profits can turn into a scramble for survival.

to avoid and make returns elsewhere. here is the argument, some regulators have warned that the in by has been brought etf's. that interestter rates aren't about to rocket higher anytime soon, meaning insurers and investors can breathe easy for now. a series of tests over the last year from china's augustvaluation and in -- and an august knocked down in stocks. -- can read more about on the terminal.

that is a europe global business report. scarlet: still ahead, the terror attack in france touches the u.s. presidential race.

mark: live from london. i'm mark barton. scott bank and i'm scarlet fu. has: the 10 year yield moved -- it has fallen as low as ..2% there are still $10 trillion of sovereign debt worldwide in that neighborhood. german yields are climbing today. as well as yields across the board. -- stocks are falling and bonds are falling. thing we areher

keeping watch on is what is going on in the presidential race. we understand donald trump has just tweeted out his vice presidential pick. we want to bring in our washington bureau chief. it is what we anticipated, michael pence. : a truly chaotic last 24 hours as rumor and circulation of who was going to be decided. they will hold a news conference tomorrow. he reschedules today's announcement because of the terrorist attack. mark: can you talk us through the 24 hours? why has there been such a delay? >> trump is a material guy -- a

mercurial guy. some were set on pence, some thought christie was liable. viable.tie was back in new york this mike pence story had taken on a life of its own and the news cycle got away from him. it is an indication as he moves forward. to showing to have people he can deal with the situations in a presidential way. yes it had a lot of drama, yes it had a lot of tension, but it also had a lot of chaos. scarlet: i want to read the tweed trump sent out. "i am pleased to announce i have chosen governor mike pence as my vice presidential running mate."

can you give us some background on mike pence? we know in the past he had considered running for president. beyond that what does he bring to the table for donald trump? >> this was a safe choice. is a candidate who has shown his true conservative credentials time and time again. he was involved in accusations about an anti-algae tb -- btnti-lgt dbq -- bill. someone who is going to keep the kind of rhetoric and coach donald trump to be more presidential and be focused on winning those conservative voters.

this is actually the two people who can leave the country. not what we see in nice but economic inequality and immigration, that is going to be the contract that going to be the complementarity pair of pants that gives him that security with the conservative base as well. >> can he get trump to step back from his more contentious comments? >> what we can do to stop immigration -- it is going to be interesting to see how they meld themselves together and present a unified front. i'm not sure anyone can make trump not trump. response to his

.allas and trying to step away i think mike pence will help them with that. christie,osen chris you are looking at someone who is really going to go after whether mike pence will be up to that challenge and whether he keeps it accepted in exposing her weaknesses. you wonder what extent he beats hillary clinton in terms of announcing the vice presidential pick? mark: that is megan murphy live in cleveland, this is bloomberg.

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mark: is 11 -- scarlet: it's 11:00 in hong kong, i'm scarlet fu. mark: i mark barton. at the trading day in europe, you're watching the european close on "bloomberg markets." ♪

scarlet: we are live in london for the next hour, bringing in full coverage out of france on the latest details after the terror attack in nice killed more than 80 people. eight months after the attacks in paris, terror struck france again last night. television and amateur images showed a truck allowing into a late-night crowd in nice on best deal day. the french president met with victims, adding france isn't done with terrorism. and the new uk prime minister theresa may says britain is on high alert. thehe threat level in united kingdom is already at severe. that means that a terrorist attack is highly likely. senior officials today will be reviewing what more we can do to