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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  July 15, 2016 2:00pm-3:01pm EDT

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we are covering stories from cleveland to new york to london. more details on the driver of the truck who killed more than 80 people last night in nice, france. , donald trumpal picks indiana governor mike pence. hillary clinton taking to is trumpeding pence with a different haircut. we will break down the health of the u.s. economy. head to the markets desk where julie hyman has the latest. julie: markets ending the week on a down note. the dow and s&p are now taking a breath here.
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just onenchanged, point down. a lot of that has to do with two groups, consumer discretionary and financial. take a look at the imap of the groups on the move. a pretty mixed picture if you look at the imap -- materials and telecoms are higher. groups worst-performing dragging on the major averages. suffering frome a downgrade at morgan stanley. the analyst sing it could be years before the company gets -- the analysts saying it could be years before the company gets its sales back. wells fargo coming out with analyst that matched
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estimates but did fall year-over-year and there were some relatively this in the mortgage banking business that and there was some relative weakness in the mortgage banking business. we have not seen a losing streak for amazon like this in quite some time. ironic because this week was they come amazon's -- prime day come amazon's self-created holiday. ,ooking at the japanese yen talk of more stimulus in japan, concern on the part of investors for what that means for the japanese yen. this movement you see is the biggest, going all the way back to 1999, the worst week for the yen since 1999. the pound coming back this week. 2%.pound trading higher by it is now lower for the day.
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look around the other currency landscapes, versus the u.s. thear, the big winner on week versus the dollar followed by the british pound and the south african rand and the yen in the bottom spot, followed by the new zealand dollar. david: let's get a check of the first word news this afternoon. a french prosecutor is providing details of yesterday's attack in nice. of the 84 people killed, 10 were children or teenagers. the number of wounded at 202 with 20 five on life support and 52 in critical condition. the investigation is still at an early stage. police are questioning the ex-wife of the suspect. president obama has signed a proclamation honoring the victims of the attack in nice ond called for flags
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federal properties to be lowered --half staff until july 15 flags will be flown at half staff at u.s. embassies, consular offices and other government facilities abroad. the president will speak about the tragedy in nice at 3:10 washington time. bloomberg television will have live coverage. indiana governor mike pence is donald trump's running mate. the two will appear together at a news conference on saturday. mr. trump was set to make the formal announcement today but niceatest terror attack in delayed it. hillary clinton is criticizing the selection. chairman saysaign mike pence is "an incredibly divisive and unpopular figure."
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he led the fight to defund planned parenthood and restrict abortion rights. the do mechanic national convention has unveiled a partial list of some of its speakers -- democratic national convention. bernie sanders and michelle obama highlight the first night of the convention on july 25. former president bill clinton, president obama and vice mrs. clintonen -- and her daughter, chelsea, will headline the final night of the convention. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: u.s. retail sales posted a healthy increase in june. sales at retailers and restaurants rose .6%. sales were up 2.7% from one year ago. for some perspective on the u.s. consumer, i want to bring in nariman behravesh from
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lexington, massachusetts. let's take apart these numbers a little bit here. what struck me was how much growth we saw in online sales. they have been and growing, the share of sales is growing and will keep growing. it is not old news, but very much a strong and significant trend we have seen for some time now. the most remarkable thing is everybody thought there would be a pullback after two very strong months of retail sales. they thought maybe the consumers would take a breather in june. they did not. periodstrong three-month . consumer spending will come in just a tad under 4.5%. that is incredibly strong, really a powerhouse committee will. consumers doing all the heavy lifting. cars, when you look at
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how worrying is that trend? of thosecars is one situations where the growth rate and the growth in sales have been very strong. again, i have to take a breather, consumers have gone out and bought a lot of cars. we will plateau would it comes to cars, but all the other parts of consumer spending are doing well. the biggest growth areas was building supplies. anything related to housing is doing well because housing is the other part of the economy that is booming right now. anything related to household goods, household building car refurbishing, remodeling, you name it. when you look at what's happening in china, what do you see? nariman: a couple of things to be said. retail sales is more dependent
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on what's going on in the u.s., jobs growth come income growth, u.s. interest rates come oil prices and so on. china's influence comes in two ways. lowa sells to us and chinese prices make chinese goods more affordable. to americans. that can be viewed as a bad thing but also a good thing for consumers. china slowing economy has kept commodity prices down. lot of goods on a lower cost basis. china is helping u.s. consumers in both of those ways. david: we have this brexit vote, the eu referendum, we have the back-to-school season coming up. how do you see that affecting retail sales going forward? nariman: i don't see it having a big impact. we did take a bit of a hit on consumer confidence. those kinds of worries typically
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do not translate into lower spending. there's not a lot of correlation, especially between the consumer confidence numbers and actual spending. consumers worry but still spend. we're looking at very solid growth in back-to-school sales. a bit stronger in terms of growth than last year. i don't think brexit will make much of a difference, either to consumer spending or to back-to-school sales. david: we got tons of economic data today. what is your reaction to what we saw there? nariman: we are in an economy that is close to what some people might have called full employment. you would expect to see inflation picking up. perhaps the surprises we don't have even more inflation. from that perspective, yes, we will see more inflation, but i
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don't think it will explode. this is not the beginning of something bad. david: what is your sense of how fed policymakers will process inflation? nariman: they are clearly worried about brexit, financial volatility. if the jobs numbers in the next two to three months continue to look good come anything between 150-200,000 new jobs a month, by the end of the air, they will hike at least one more time. -- by the end of the month. my sense is they will go in december. inflation is starting to edge up a little bit. --id: industrial production one of your colleagues did note that it was all noise, no signal. nariman: i obviously agree with my colleague.
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that is one of the weak spots of the economy. industrial production is only a small share of the economy. less than 20%. services are the rest. that is one area that is hurting and one area where the external is affecting manufacturing and therefore industrial production. the good news is consumer the not so good news is exports and as a result of that commitment is lecturing. as a result of that -- david: this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." time for the bloomberg business flash. by comes biggest shareholder is selling a stake in paramount pictures. viacom is said to be in talks to sell 49% to a chinese group. samsung electronics and talks inut investing electric car manufacturers. samsung sees the investment in b yd as a way of bolstering its semiconductor business for cars. microsoft will not meet its goal -- the company
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says it remains committed to the goal but it will take longer to achieve it. flashs your business update. we offered her perspective on investing in the eurozone. >> this is a very sensitive time for europe, really a reflection point for europe. they not only need to deal with brexit, but a big issue developing there is the fragility of the banking sector. since the financial crisis, banks have increased their capital buffer. however, in europe, these increases have been much lower than what we've seen in the u.s. are of the european banks
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still undercapitalized and that's why we see the pressures we are seeing recently. that's on top of the issues they need to deal with with spain and portugal having reached their budget deficit limits. at the same time, we are going through a prolonged period of low inflation there. x: we've seen spanish spreads tighten while european stocks continue to get hit a bit. you would think of european stocks were lower, the spreads should be whitening. -- widening. maria: we saw spreads increase, however, as stocks have bounced back from of the spreads have tightened again. the question is whether the market anticipates there will be more accommodation or not. the rally we see in the equity markets is really driven by more
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expectations of accommodation. not only from the ecb, but also from the banks of england and japan. you wrote that based on macro factors. what does that tell you about investing in europe? maria: the fundamentals are still very weak and there's a lot of uncertainty that europe is facing with respect to all this political turmoil. every time we have political turmoil, that is bad for economic activity. i'm not very optimistic about the risky assets in europe. raw capitalism, billing the creditors, recapitalizing the banks -- the politics is at the forefront of the conversation in italy. i have a referendum at the end of the year that i have to win. if i don't, i've got an issue.
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i do make sure the retail investors are going to be ok. can you have a political solution and a real economic one at the same time in europe? maria: you could. new banking regulations that have been put in place and they became effective at the beginning of this year, those regulations account or a bailing provision. the effectively says stakeholders have to absorb ofses after 8% of the assets the banks before any bailout funds get into those banks. it percent of losses, that is a really big amount. that's a present of losses. -- 8% of losses. these banks really need to be bailed out. that is the problem, whether they can go around these new regulations. britain --o great give us a minute on the macro factors going forward for great britain.
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maria: we have uncertainty as to what kind of deal they will be able to strike with the european union. they could range from something like being a member of the european economic area, does not change much in terms of economics of their relationship. to something more severe such as being treated as a third country. there is uncertainty about that. the fact that the pound has fallen so much and the fact that willing to england's step in and provide a lot of accommodation, that should keep things low. david: coming up, we are live from cleveland where they are setting the stage for the republican national convention. donald trump announcing his vice presidential pick today, indiana governor mike pence. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg is official, donald trump has selected indiana governor mike pence to be his running mate. trump made the announcement via twitter. to megan let's go murphy in cleveland. i wonder, first of all, how much we know about mike pence and why donald trump sided with him in the end. in congress for 12 years, his name has been out there, he was expected to be a presidential candidate himself at one point. his name is known in political circles but he is not that well known nationally. most known for spearheading what is accused of being an anti-lg bt religious , which bill in indiana
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drew the disapproval of corporations and many allies in the state until it was later revised. he's not the nationally known figure that chris christie or newt gingrich would have been. david: donald trump intended to have a news conference today. that was postponed because of the tragedy in france yesterday. it did not grossly mislead, let's say -- it did not go seamlessly, let's a. megan: it was a car crash. there was still a lack of decision last night. out you are going to roll your vp in a race as important as this, you want to choreograph until the last minute. you want to have that bio on twitter and facebook, redirect people. introduce mike pence to the nation the way you want him introduced. because of what we've seen in the true chaos, he has not
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enjoyed any of that benefit. have released all this information, negative stuff come instead of having that stage moment, that unity candidacy they wanted to put forward, they really lost momentum on this and shows how donald trump is still struggling to master these really critical moments. the campaign released its logo today. reaction to that has not been overwhelmingly positive. megan: there will always be haters on social media. i think that will be a minor blip. need to get more discipline into this campaign. they cannot have that going forward, they are in the most
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critical week -- they have a very unconventional convention schedule speakers all over the map. they need to build momentum behind his candidacy and behind this message. david: yesterday, we got the list of speakers for the republican national convention. today, we got some sense of what the themes are, what the this who the speakers are going to be. megan: michelle obama and bernie sanders, bill clinton, chelsea clinton, obama, joe biden -- if you are a democrat, that is a black buster -- blockbuster set of themes. she carries and from president obama and from her own husband. compare and contrast that with
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the republican list that still lacks very senior figures. donald trump will try to get people behind his children in particular, incredibly close that he willim want to introduce america to those three people. david: that is megan murphy joining us from cleveland the republican national convention kicks off next week. citigroup and wells fargo reporting this morning. we will take you to their results, next. more "bloomberg markets" coming up. ♪
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david: from bloomberg roll had hers our new york -- from bloomberg world headquarters in
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new york, this is "bloomberg markets." julie: a mixed day for commodities. we've seen more notable moves for the week. it has been a roller coaster for oil on the week. inventory report, the latest things to be exxon mobill -- does not have to collect on those oil shipments. rig datae latest oil today which shows rates in the u.s. climbed for the third straight week. one oil trader calls it -- a lot of bullish and bearish counter currents. want to check on jolt. -- want to check on gold. gold down 2.2% on the week as
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we've seen stocks rise for most of the week. less appetite for hedging against risk. that means gold had its first weekly loss since may. also, natural gas was notable this week. week since march , it's bestp 5.5% week since march. one of the metals that tends to benefit -- we got data out of china on gdp rising more than estimated. david: let's check on the headlines. markup and has more from the newsroom. -- mark crumpton. mark: 84 people were killed it when a truck rammed a crowd celebrating bastille day in nice big.
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>> the whole world knows, however, that we are a strong country able to overcome whatever is thrown at us. and we have had to face a number arehese actions, but we showing a great example for the rest of the world because we have been able to show cohesion. togetherness. david: president francois hollande's did nice today -- nariman- mark: president francois --lande listening to proposals about scotland's future relationship with the european union. she made the comment in edinburgh following talks with scotland's president. light of last month's british vote to leave the eu, another referendum is
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highly likely. scotland's population voted overwhelmingly to remain in the eu. a longshot attempt by rogue delegates to prevent donald trump's presidential nomination has been rejected by a key rnc committee. turning away a proposed amendment which would have allowed delegates to vote their conscience. new england patriots quarterback tom brady will not appeal his nfl four game suspension to the u.s. supreme court. a federal appeals court denied his attempt to get a new hearing on his deflategate suspension. roger goodell was within his powers when he suspended brady for his role in the deflated footballs used in a game.
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global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. david: financials are falling today as investors digested second-quarter results from citigroup and wells fargo. city beat estimates while wells fargo matched. wells fargo is the biggest laggard in the s&p 500 today after the world's most valuable bank posted second-quarter profit that fell nearly 3%. -- let'sd out today find out why. fargo's reported net income fell from $5.72 billion one year ago. the focus his energy loans. the lender has been dealing with loans worsening for the last few
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quarters from lower energy prices. the provision for credit losses tripled from one year ago. that is tied largely to the oil and gas portfolio. number is net interest margin. the profitability measure for lending. though interest rates have weighed on that -- this margin decreased by four basis points. analysts do see mortgage lending as a bright spot for banks. you can see the lead on the rest of the market. another issue is the brexit boat. the bank has 1100 employees throughout europe, the middle east and africa. you can see its exposure to britain which really contributes
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100% what it gets from the eu. because of those reasons, we will be watching wells fargo stock throughout today's session. shares of wells fargo remain lower, down 2.75%. citigroup also down after it squarely profit fell -- its quarterly profit fell. >> it is actually beneficial to have owned an investment bank. jpmorgan yesterday, the majority of their beat was from owning fixed income trading operations. wells fargo largely in traditional retail commercial bank. you don't get that. that is the reason for the pop.
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the end ofening at the second quarter, you don't have a lot of visibility. mark: did we get any insight into what impact brexit might have in coming quarters? that it was a question this front of mine for a lot of people. jpmorgan give a bit more detail. slow.ect summer to be we asked citigroup the same question and they said, i cannot answer that, there's too many variables. they are trying to project this idea that you should be optimistic. however, they are leaving them open -- themselves vonnie: everyone was concerned
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about the fact that we might be at an inflection point in the credit cycle. was there any credi commentary t extent? hugh: yesterday, jpmorgan was asked this repeatedly and they said credit is as good as it has ever been. the extended 100 billion more loans than they did a year earlier. point? reached that it seems like the party is going on for now. the trend has been to counter stagnant revenues, banks have been squeezing expenses. where are we when it comes to expenses versus revenue? i know we saw better fixed income revenues from jpmorgan and citigroup. how much more can these banks squeeze to counter stagnant revenue?
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hugh: you saw jpmorgan and citigroup cutting expenses. one reason wells fargo is trading down right now because their expenses increased. at a certain point, you could argue that he will start cutting into the bone and you to start giving of revenue. scarlet: given that we got these trading results that were better than what analysts had anticipated, shouldn't that vote well for morgan stanley? when i look at their share prices today, the reaction is fairly muted. hugh: you have to look at what kind of businesses have done well. for citigroup and jpmorgan come upon trading -- i don't know that morgan stanley is known for those things. they are bigger in equities.
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and citigroup come equities have done really well. you have to look at what businesses do well and we will see next period. david: getting banks to start lending again has been essential to the economic recovery. can there be too much of a good thing? regulators become concerned --ut growing risk >> with commercial real estate lending, we are signaling a caution light. we really think this is an issue of sound risk management. are rapidly inreasing their growth commercial real estate come over 50% have done so. we are trying to emphasize the down risk management and that is thesed on management and
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ability to stress test portfolios and make your there's credit administration. rise in theapid levels has indicated this. in addition, there is an easing up underwriting standards, including less restrictive loan requirements -- people are loosening up the rules and getting a little carefree in their lending. that is what we are trying to emphasize and what we will follow up in our ongoing supervision of our institutions along with the federal reserve and fdic, making sure people are serving -- observing the basics of sound risk management. david: are you seeing this across the board? or particularly in some segments? >> in a significant segment of
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our institutions. it will vary between institutions, how well they manage those concentrations. we are seeing a geographic concentration of this activity. generally speaking, it is ,ccurring in the gateway cities hot local markets. you seeing any delayed repayment or nonperforming loans or defaults? >> we are trying to be proactive. look back at the financial crisis, those banks that had significant exposure to commercial real estate and manage that issue well were the ones that had the best practices in place. we put out regulatory guidance back in 2006. we reissued a reminder in december of last year.
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if banks act now and supervisors of vigilant, this type potential risk can be managed effectively. david: we talk a lot about the credit cycle here. people start lending more, taking more risks -- do you think this is an early warning sign that we may be getting the end of the credit cycle? >> it is possible that we are later in the lending cycle. that is what we are trying to emphasize. have an effective risk management framework in place. we are to re-emphasize that banks and supervisors need to be paying attention to those basics. coming up later today, the wells fargo cfo on his firm's earnings at 4:00 p.m. eastern time right here on bloomberg television. still ahead, white top videogame players may soon be negotiating
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contracts with pro sports teams. that's why top videogame players. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." among investors considering buying stakes in several indian steelmakers. ion on our winning investments in their steel shares of herbalife moving higher today after reaching a settlement with the federal trade commission that says the maker of nutritional shakes is not a pyramid scheme.
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meanwhile, herbalife says carl icahn is buying 35% of shares outstanding. donating tott berkshire hathaway, giving away roughlyune -- worth $2.9 billion. thebiggest share went to bill and melinda gates foundation. the sports teams on the hunt for new all-stars. maybe not your traditional athletes. they want video gamers. -- this hase now been going on in europe with professional soccer for some time. are we seeing it creep into the u.s.? >> three nfl teams are looking ,t professional madden gamers
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looking to sponsor these guys, to where their jersey, to compete using the teams that where the jerseys as well. it is part content play, turn to capitalize on the growth of you sports that has happened so rapidly and so quickly. e-sports.of it is huge. product, hugena screens to watch the games and the players are on stage. sponsorships are huge, teams are being sold and bought, leagues are popping up. it is a fairly mature sport industry right now. certainly, the big thing for nfl , it is reaching a younger demographic, the big problems so
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many teams have. a lot of what they are consuming is just be a digital, online. leagues do not have a huge presence there yet. david: i think of who is playing madden, folks who know the rules of the football. when we talk about broadening the appeal, how much broader could it get? david: madden is a little different from people -- >> madden is a little different from fifa. there are people who know more then soccer through fifa watching soccer in general. sports amongnsume daily fantasy, regular fantasy, teams, videogames -- the nfl does not care. a jerseye buying
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because he is your favorite madden player or he is from the team you watch on tv, it doesn't matter. the jersey is sold. long as these teams can find different avenues to pull young males in, they will do that. david: a runner-up in the madden competition last year said he is able to make a living, making six figures doing this. >> he is one of the few professional madden players out there. it just which and youtube subscribers, people that subscribe to his videos, teaching online, giving one-on-one tutorials about how to play madden heard -- how to play madden. he has sponsorships of his own and you factor in the prize there are americans getting into madden and doing it full-time. david: read the latest tory in themberg businessweek --
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latest story in "bloomberg businessweek." finally sold? the latest on yahoos sales process, coming up. ♪
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." president obama is making remarks ahead of a recession in the east room of the white house. president obama: obviously, we heartsre with heavier than normal. nice, we witnessed another tragic and appalling attack on the freedom and the peace that we cherish. it today, our hearts are with the people of france and with andthe innocent men, women
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so many children who were hurt or killed in this sickening attack. knowincludes americans we of, a family from texas, a father and young son, just 11 years old, who were there on vacation. their family, like so many others, were devastated. they are grieving. they need all the love and support of our american family as they grapple with an and getable loss through what will be very difficult days. on behalf of all of us, i want to welcome our friend, ambassador -- from france. i had a chance to meet with him right before i came out so that he knew it is not just the u.s.,
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but the entire world that stands in solidarity with the people of france during this difficult time. --poke to president ollanta president francois hollande earlier today. i reminded him that france is america's oldest ally and what of our strongest. we own our freedom to each other. americans and french have stood together for two centuries. we will stand united now. in our grief coming in our praying for the many who are injured, many of whom are still fighting for their lives. we pledge to stand with our french friends as we defend nation against the scourge of the violence. this is a threat to all of us. of even ae capacity single individual to do
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extraordinary harm to our people , to our way of life. in a lot of nations represented here today have been impacted this year -- in recent weeks, we've seen heinous attacks inspired or directed by isil. in iraq, bangladesh, saudi these terrorists are targeting and killing innocent people of all backgrounds and all faiths come including muslims. i know i speak for all of us when i say these individuals and these networks are an affront to all of our humanity. many of the nations represented here today are part of our llobal coalition against isi and i want to take this opportunity to say we will not be deterred. we will not relent, we will keep
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working together to prevent attacks and the been our homeland. isilill keep taking out leaders and keep standing with our partners from effort to dust from africa to afghanistan to destroy this vile organization. in contrast to these terrorists, we will win this fight by building, by never giving up on diplomacy to end the syrian civil war. by working with partners around the world come including muslim .ommunities we will defeat these ideologies by offering a better vision of development and economic progress. so people come especially young people, have more hope and opportunity and are less susceptible to extremism and violence in the first place.
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and we will continue to promote political opportunity and democracy so citizens have a say in their future. and we will win this fight by saying that staying true to our values of pluralism and rule of law and diversity and freedoms, like the freedom of religion. freedom of speech and assembly. the very freedoms the people of nice were celebrating last night on the steel day -- bastille day. we've heard more suggestions that all muslims in america be targeted, tested for their beliefs, some deported or jailed. the very suggestion is repugnant and an affront to everything we stand for as americans. give in to fear or turn on each other or sacrifice our way of life. we cannot let ourselves be
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divided by religion because that is exactly what the terrorists want. we should never do their work for them. states, ourunited freedoms come including freedom stronggion, help keep us and safe and we have to be vigilant to defend our security and our freedoms. all of us, whatever nations we represent here, have to step back and reflect on what we are to eliminate this kind of chronic violence. difficult several u.s. here in the betweende that exists races and ethnicities and religions, it is between people the commonze humanity of all people and are
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willing to build institutions that promote that common humanity and those who do not. that who would suggest somebody is less than the because of their tribe or ethnicity or paid or color -- or faith or color. and those impulses exist in all our countries. impulses, when we do not speak out against them and build strong institutions to protect people from those impulses, they can take over. they can be unleashed. us have responsibilities. not just a few. to say that even as we are relentless against terrorists, it is also worthy

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