york, 1:00 a.m. in istanbul. this is a bloomberg special report. i am matt miller. mark: i am mark crumpton. the presidential palace in ankara. the prime minister said a group within the military was engaged in an uprising. this comes from an interview with turkish television. military vehicles are bridges and roads. ambulances were seen in front of turkish military headquarters. there are reports of turkish state run television channels being shut down and then by military factions going back on air.

mark: president erdogan says he is still in charge, still the president and army chief. he adds he does not believe the people backing the coup will succeed. he says they will pay a heavy price for this. repercussions, as you have mentioned. we are seeing movements in global markets, but turkey is a member of nato, a u.s. ally. u.s. has a major military base in turkey. matt: it is a huge force to be reckoned with, for sure. president erdogan has been blaming the army for this collapse. he also said he is issuing arrest warrants. to our correspondent in istanbul. what goingyou about

on. are you able to tell who is in control of the television and radio stations? >> it's unclear who is in control. ago, half an hour president erdogan was on face time with cnn. we got to see him. said we will put them in their place as soon as possible. charge of the nation. but of course, the army is saying it's in control.

mark: i was wondering if at some time in the prior two days or prior two weeks if we were getting a sense that something like this was likely to happen. was there increased tension between the government and the military. >> over the past six days he has been uncharacteristically quiet. even today, in speaking about it, where it seemed like there ,as a calm before the storm there was a lot taking place. mark: thank you. standby, we will get back to you. the formerhlan is deputy director of the central intelligence agency and he joins

us on the phone from virginia. thank you for joining us. what is nows on becoming a situation where the military and the elected officials in turkey are apparently attempting to wrest control from one another. always a confusing situation when you have a coup. the reports are always very confusing. think, is on here, i that pressure has been building for years. they have now burst into full view in some way. are you hearing me correctly? previous guests have noted, military intervention is a long tradition in turkey. this has happened four times in the last century.

very different circumstance today than the last time there was a military intervention. erdogan and his party have been in powers and 2002, about 14 years. turkeychanged dramatically. it is now more accepting of decades of fidelity to a secularness. he has gone through great tension with the military, from which he had mostly emerged. 2011, 2012,around he was accusing the military of plotting and had something like half of his senior officer corps in jail. they were released by the core in 2015. the case, review of and since then, there has been

of aof a report on -- kind truce between the senior military and erdogan. i have seen reports between -- that the army chief of staff is in detention somewhere. that might suggest -- again, very confusing situation, might suggest that the two is being mounted by more junior -- the mounted by more junior people. the military's concerns here, their beefs would be multiple. hast, historically, this been a very secular country. it is no longer that secularity. that is largely erdogan's doing. the military has always considered it their duty to protect the secular nature of the country. second, there is the scuffle .ith the kurds now in the context of the syrian

war, and that raises questions in the military's mind about general order in the country. have the terrorist attacks that occurred in ankara , which again, create a sense of disorder. the military has always been dedicated to maintaining order in a secular nation, and that is what i think is motivating those who are behind this could, whatever their numbers. i will close with this, and then if you have any other thoughts you want to raise, in the past, when there has been a military coup, the country has been very passive in the face of it because of a general understanding that the military has been the guardian of the country. erdogan, on the other hand, has been controversial, but nonetheless popular leader. a coup against his government

could turn nasty or than in the past. this could get really nasty before it's over. matt: excellent insight. we really appreciate your time. that is the former deputy director of the cia joining us on the phone. go now to richard haas, president of the council on foreign relations. he joins us on the telephone is this unfolds. -- on the telephone now. as this unfolds, i wonder what your thoughts are and how strong this faction of the military is. do you believe they will be able to pull off a coup? is not totally surprising given how polarized turkish society has become, how strained relations have been and continue to be between the military and mr. erdogan and others. in terms of the strength of this faction, their agenda, and a million other questions, nobody,

at least on the outside that i have seen, has the answers to that. when you say polarized, i think about what i just saw in london, 52-48. what we have in the u.s., 40% for clinton, 40% for trump. polarizationind of in turkey, almost a dead even split? >> it's hard to say. process itself has been so skewed in the military does not stand against erdogan or anyone else. what you have is an indication of a society with multiple fault lines, whether it is between andous kurdish activists the government or secularists and people who are anything but secularists, traditional left a lot of personal animosity against mr. erdogan. what you are seeing is simply a society that is increasingly

characterized by its division, but i don't think it lines itself up as a neat, one side versus another side that you see in situations like the united states. are the national security implications of this for the united states? >> in norman's. turkey is one of the most critical countries by virtue of its geography, central to the turkey has a tremendous impact on what happens with isis, what happens in syria. it has also been the principal conveyor belt for recruits in one direction joining isis and in the other direction, for refugees heading north into europe. they are a member of nato. it's one of these countries that probably doesn't get the attention it deserves, but when europeanoking at

issues and eurasian issues, has always been pivotal. mark: my colleague matt miller mentioned earlier in our coverage that there are conflicting reports about exactly what's going on. we are in the early stages of this, so that's not unexpected, but what we have been hearing is that some of those who decided to take action against the government are blaming the government for not doing enough to fight terrorism. is that the valid argument they will use for having taken this action? thehere are issues with rule of law. there are charges against erdogan and his family about corruption. real question will be does that justify the fact that they

are acting in a extra democratic way? ther. erdogan prevails, question will be what his retribution looks like. will this be grounds for justification to do further cracks down, further dismantling turkish democracy. if those behind the coup win, what is their agenda? and we could perhaps have a prolonged standoff which could lead to quite a lot of domestic violence. this could play out in lots of ways. just on setes was with us and he was reminded of whenugust push in russia yeltsin and some hardliners tried to overthrow gorbachev. that too lasted two or three days. it turned out to be unsuccessful. it shows you that a coup does not always immediately yield results.

not surprise you, i am guessing, to see this last throughout the weekend, even throughout the next week. see.ople need to wait and on thewants to and up wrong side of this. people may wait to see which way it is tilting and then rally around a bandwagon on the side that looks like it's going to prevail. one thing we haven't talked about that i think is interesting is what outsiders does,at the united states various european governments and so forth. so far, we have seen a lot of weight and see postures. i think outsiders want to get a sense of how this is playing out . mark: richard, is there a possibility or even a danger that an action like this may embolden other countries in the region or militaries to do the same?

>> i doubt it. these tend not to be copycats. what happens is you have the political dynamics within each country pretty much determine what will happen. people don't look at what they see on tv and say let's do the same thing here. mark: the obama administration is having a national security meeting and this is at the top of the agenda. what is the main concern at this point? question, again, is to what extent do they indicate to -- what their leanings are today hold extent back? so far, they seem to be adopting strategy rather than either siding with the government or with those against the government. matt: thank you. we appreciate your time.

richard haas, president of the council of foreign relations joining us to talk about this developing story in turkey. it looks like a military coup has been attempted. it haslooking to see if been successful. mark: our special coverage continues on this friday evening here in new york. bloomberg." ♪

welcome to this special report on bloomberg. a developing situation in turkey. the military has attempted a coup. the government, including president erdogan, says the coup

will not be successful. it's interesting now as we watch the third hour of this unfold that the military has then able to block off streets and bridges in istanbul and ankara. they want to install a curfew at 6:00 a.m. local time, 11:00 p.m. new york time, just about five hours, but they have not been able to get everyone back to their homes because the streets are blocked due to all of these blockades. it's fascinating that they attempted this crew without erdoganking president into custody. he was on vacation, reportedly, but now that they have him out, he is trying to incite the public to go to squares, go to streets, go to the airports and resist the coup. mark: tell us your thoughts on these events. give us a little bit of historical context about this this is not the first

time this has happened in recent memory. >> i was watching our sister media channel and there was a story i would like to convey. it happened like five minutes ago but i just saw it now. the military was at the airport where the terror attacks happened a couple of weeks ago, a public airport. leaving the is airport. turkey toldt of turkish citizens to go against the protesters, against the military, and that's what they did. . have pictures downloading i don't know if you can see it. they are leaving the airport. the military is. the one that was rebellious. mark: so, they are being

confronted by protesters. that themagine military does not want to fire on their fellow citizens. >> that's right. also, our prime minister told us that these are the guns and ammunition that was paid for by taxpayers, it's turkish citizens mother -- money. i was on the air at 4:30 p.m. eastern standard u.s. time and i saying thatporters on the bridge there was 15-20 seconds of heavy gunfire. the prime minister was very angry. he said he is not going to tolerate this. he said he's going to use force against force. and you are right, this did not just happen today. it happened in the 1980's. it has happened four times. the heaviest penalties will be given.

i was also curious about where our president was. -- he has economic advisers. him and said are you ok , where is our president? but he didis ok not give logistics. mark: we just receiving word from the associated press -- live on tv, if we could bring it off air signal. the reports are apparently true that turkish state television has been taken off the air. >> we have heard reports that state television has been off the air for a number of hours preceding this. it looks like it has now gone to black again. of gunfirereports and even helicopter fire aimed at this building. we will keep you up-to-date on that. right now, i want to bring in

david phillips, the director of peace building at columbia university. let me ask you about the danger of violence against turkish citizens. as mel just told us, if you do see citizens come out trying to stop this coup from succeeding, to do,gan has urged them that could result in serious bloodshed. >> it's a possibility. but there are a good number of turkish citizens who will be glad to see president erdogan go. matt: i want money. we keep hearing reports of how are there.olitics are we talking about a country divided? are we talking about a country in which little more than half support the president and the other have to is not? >> at most half support the president. there were elections on june 7

the ruling party received just 40% of the vote. they started a war with a -- with the kurds in order to rally the nationalist base. he refused to enter into a -- they refuse to enter into a coalition government and then they held another election. are three elements that happen when there is a two. you start to arrest opponents. you take over the media. you close transportation and infrastructure. that's what happened. the tv is shut down. the airspace is closed. the bridges are being blocked. the chairman of the joint steve -- joint chiefs of staff has been arrested. this wasn't done in a haphazard

fashion. mark: what is the relationship between turkish -- the turkish cheek -- turkish chief of staff and the military? >> the government is an islamist government. the military is traditionally the champion of secularism. what has happened in turkey, ,hrough a series of events erdogan has been rotating out secular elites from the military security establishment and installing his islamic cohorts. there was supposed to be, in august, a new rotation of generals getting the pink slip. this might have been an attempt to preempt that from happening. there has traditionally been a high degree of tension between

military leaders and political leaders. a number of attempts have been shut down. has tried to shut down the military so they would not be in a position to do that. military felt like they were pushed to the end of their rope, which is why this was happening today. mark: thank you for your time. att: i went to issue correction very quickly. we told you the tv was off air. were justl all we watching was there live feed. it's a different channel that .as currently gone off we were showing you the gone to black logo of another channel. not sure which one it was. about a minute left, but i have to ask you quickly, what are your updates? what are you hearing?

>> the general just texted. he says this is not ts k, which stands for the national army. being small group commanded by a us-based turkish preacher. he currently lives in exile in the u.s. matt: he's saying the rebels are being directed by a us-based turkish preacher. well, we have to take those reports with a grain of salt because they do come from a government loyal general. we will be back. ♪

\ welcome back. there is a fluent situation in turkey where the military is trying to seize control. reports of shots being fired. we are also hearing reports of helicopters and military planes flying overhead. the president of turkey is urging his people to take to the streets and confront the military, but not in a valid -- not in a violent way -- in a peaceful way. troy: we can to -- reporter: we continue to cover the story. it looks like the turkish army is attempting a coup. is saying theyy will not be successful. -- the turkish government is saying they will not be successful. a big crowd out a ring around the square. seen footage of roads being blocked off, bridges being blocked off, and we have seen pictures of police being detained by armed forces. mark: our colleague has been

joining us over the past couple of hours. she is with bloomberg news, joining us on the phone from istanbul. isabel, what is the latest? she ran home when news .f this coup came out otherwise, now people do seem to be taking to the streets in response to the call from president erdogan for people to come out. there are clashes, i believe, by people who have heeded this call and others who are trying to keep the peace in some way, but it is a very complicated situation developing. is about, you are in istanbul , and we have heard reports of military jets being scrambled over istanbul.

are you hearing anything about the rest of sharkey? -- the rest of turkey? 1/5 of theup about population. is it happening only in istanbul and ocarina, or is it happening all over the country? so far, it seems to be ,round the capital and istanbul the commercial capital. it does seem to be focused in those two places. kara arees in oan saying they have bombs, explosions on the streets. it seems that the violence you are seeing is more concentrated corrupt ---- on ankara, but in istanbul they shut the bridges to traffic.

we are feeling it, but not as ankura. as on koran -- mark: this is what president or one urged them to do, -- erdogan urged them to do, take to the streets. does he believe that enough people will take to the streets and engage in a peaceful protest in trying to convince the military that what they are doing is wrong? reporter: i think that is certainly his hope and attention. -- intention. from hear chants coming istanbul's central square, where three years ago there were antigovernment protests, if you remember. a protest about construction projects in istanbul's central park. people took over the square there for days.

whether this is going to be a flash in the pan or restored by morning, or otherwise, remains to be seen. are you getting reports that martial law has been declared in turkey until further notice? we arer: that is what hearing. there are a lot of contradictory messages at the moment. the traction with an army that is staging this coup attempt seems to have seized the state broadcaster and they are declaring martial law. officials from the government are saying that is not the case. whatever this coup attempt is, we will fight it, we will be successful in fighting it. messages contradictory at the moment, and it is hard to get clarity. >> i wonder if contradictory messages from president berger one seat -- president erdogan seemed tongue-in-cheek. he is a strong ruler.

peacefulcalling for a end to this coup, you have to wonder how honesty is being. from the experts we have had in the last hour, it seems this is a leader willing to wage war in order to stay in power. hadrter: certainly, he has a tenacious grip on power in turkey in the last few years. , then mayor of istanbul subsequently his prime minister for many years. popularly elected president in 2014. he was turkey's first popularly elected president. having won that vote, he can say he has the support of the people. but there is obviously a huge him,on that does not like does not like what he is doing, does not like his party. previously, these people were represented by the army.

lot of time to curtail the army's influence in turkey. beene think he has successful, but it seems there are still factions of the army that have the power to do this. you very much joining us, george friedman. is a geopolitical strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of geopolitical futures, an online publication that forecasts global events. usnk you so much for joining on bloomberg television. speaking of forecasting global events, did you see this coming? there were many rumors that this was coming, and this was the 18th rumor, and this has happened since i saw it coming. or there any signals leading up to this? i have had a couple of guests ask this. some have said yes, some have

said no. what were you hearing and seeing? guest: we are seeing shifts in foreign policy, an opening to israel the military wanted to see, an opening to russia that i don't think the military was completely happy to see. alsonk in retrospect, we all the signals coming. i personally did not. i thought he would remain in place. i did not think the army was secure enough that they could organize a coup without erdogan finding out about it. that is the big supplies -- the big surprise. organizing this coup took a lot of people, a lot of organizing of armor and planes. and if erdogan's security service -- and erdogan security service, which was supposed to keep him informed, did not. obviously this is not something that they thought of last night. this may have been something in the planning stages for weeks, maybe even months. guest: one of the things erdogan has said continually is that the army wants to throw them out.

but i would say that something like this has been discussed for months very quietly, and they did everything they could that erdogan would not see it. so i was unlikely to see it. thinkst important sign i in the weakness of the dog was that he had lost enough of a grip in his organization that -- that he had lost enough of a grip of his organization that he could not prove it. planners whotary attempted this coup, they did not capture, they have not attained present -- president erdogan himself? he seems to be using face time and tv cameras as a platform to get the populace to defend him. there are a lot of rumors of where he is. there is one rumor that is pretty strong, that he is in the south. there is another that he is at , anotherrt at ankara

that he is in istanbul, and another that he is at his home. he is trying to be in many places at once so he could not be found. i noticed that a national television station broadcast the of the coup, so they had control of that. they clearly don't have control over everything, but they moved into a position where most of the networks were broadcasting their stuff. mark: mr. friedman, we have about 30 seconds left. you talked about the planning stages. talk to me about the timing of this. why today? y right now? guest: one of the things you want to do is to this sort of at night, and you want to do it with the weekend facing you, and you would not want to do it or waitou are ready

very long. the reasons right now i don't think have to do with anything external, it has to do with this is the moment they were wanting to do it at, and waiting longer they might be tipped off. freeman is a strategist on international affairs, founder and chairman of geopolitical futures. thank you for joining us. let's bring viewers and listeners here on bloomberg radio as we are being simulcast up-to-date as far as exactly what has happened. around the ring of the closing bell of the new york stock exchange, we started to see reports coming across. the first i saw were from reuters, reporting gunfire and .elicopters flying over ankara then, we started to hear reports that the bridge over the bosphorus was closed in istanbul , and roads were being closed. and then, we had a prime minister coming out and saying there was an uprising in the army, but they had quelled that,

and that this was not a coup. subsequently, we heard a statement from the army's saying that they had overthrown the government and were in control of the country. mark: they were saying that they were in control of the country, but the president said he is still in control of the country, still the head of the armed forces, and he was asking the people of turkey to take to the streets in protest, and peaceful protest, confronting some of the military who were taking over. we were getting reports from our correspondent that there were airport,eople at the and they were confronting in a peaceful ways some of the military who were at the airport. there were earlier reports that president erdogan had actually fled to the airport, but we have not had that confirmed, but he had been speaking on television on c-span international saying that he is still in charge. on cnnas speaking

international via facetime. ntv, they are broadcasting a speech from the prime minister, speaking there about the attempt of gangs to overthrow the government. it looks like those gangs have been successful in commandeering a whole lot of sheet metal. they've got tanks in the street, and they are scrambling jets over istanbul and ankara. there have to be -- they have to be large gangs indeed. president erdogan is not putting a stop to that himself, instead calling on the people to do that for him. a precarious situation, to say the least. mark: we will continue our special coverage of the events in turkey. a coup, not calling it but some of the government say that is exactly what is being attempted. turkey's military at -- energy

industry says there has been no disruption of crude flow. stay with us. ♪

special report on an attempted coup in turkey. the military has shut down streets and bridges in istanbul over state taken broadcasters, and claimed to control the country. however, president erdogan on through speaking broadcasters saying that turkey is run by the nations will, a direct quote, and calling on citizens to help quash this military coup.

i am matt miller, joined by bloomberg surveillance anchor tom keene. >> the keyword you just said was attempted. it shows you, when you look back at the many coups of turkey and other nations, some succeed in some don't. that's the key right now, we don't know if this has succeeded. >> a moment ago, we were in russiaf the august when hardliners in the communist party tried to overflow gopro jobs government -- gorbachev's government. that failed. turkey most recently had a coup in 1997 and back in the 1980's as well. some of them go by without disturbing the markets too much. toat my vintage, you go back 1980, a major coup among the many attempted and sort of an e

coup, a fewternet years ago. mr. erdogan took 50% of the vote the last time around. that was not the case 30 or 40 years ago. >> indeed, a lot of that vote was taken because, someone with theneered war kurds in order to gain popular support. previously, he had run into problems and had to call in a new vote. the interesting -- it will be interesting to see what this new military is able to do, because if the people do come out and stop a coup, if they do stop in front of tanks and demand they don'the street, you expect the military would fire on civilians. however, it could lead, worst scenario, to a civil war. >> publish executions in the 1980 coup or 50.

without question, every source says it was thousands of people, through all sorts of difficult died, killed, were jailed, whatever. the great advantage we have of accumulating every source that we have is some of the backdrop. for example, the two bridges across the bosphorus strapping europe to asia, both north of istanbul, are key locations if you are going to get a coup. you have to somehow contain those bridges and get the confidence of the infrastructure of istanbul as you begin to a turkey radically different from what we have seen. >> speaking of the difference, i think it is interesting that this military faction is trying to make clear that it will keep markets calm. they assured markets that they

would allow international deals to continue, that they would try to repair relations with the rest of the world. is probably athis response to some of the violence of the terrorist attacks we have been reporting in istanbul and elsewhere. the populist feeling that we see acting out across the globe may have acted out in turkey a little earlier, and this could be later in the cycle as far as the political situation is concerned. >> i watched your conversation earlier, and that's where we get the perspective. to your point on what we are talking about, it goes back, moving from istanbul in the northwest corner of turkey, over , the europe end of turkey, and you go further out to northern iraq and the kurdish question. to turkey.omes back let's bring in thomas anderson right now.

your reaction of this attempted coup? guest: a long time coming, for sure. no doubt about it. the military has been dissatisfied with the significant mishandling of national security, and i am sure political issues as well, but certainly from the national security point of view, the accommodation by the turkish government, by the erdogan regime of very hard-line extremist fighters from around the world, allowing them to come into the country come across the , revert tobattle turkey for medical treatment. what it has led to certainly must have had these military officers that up. but it is more than military was clearly emasculated early on. they certainly saw a diminution of their role. this was a good time to conduct

this. >> we were talking moments ago of the idea of 1980 and this being a radically different turkey at this point. is the military unified, or are there shades of military? can you tell it this time? >guest: i don't know that. i don't know the turkish general staff for the military as a whole well enough, but i can assume that there clearly are going to be individuals of the senior levels that are elevated by erdogan and favored by him, and received better treatment as a result. they would be unlikely to support a coup like this. and then you are going to have different political and religious points of view and dispositions among soldiers that rising to the surface here and could generate some battles within the military. those are all possibilities. , through allstate

the literature, is there a certain redline of the military, the kurdish question? do you agree with that, or is between military and secularism and the islam we have seen in recent years? your: i did not fully hear question, but what i will comment on, the kurdish question clearly plays a role in domestic and foreign policy. they are intertwined because of the kurdish forces on both sides of the turkey border. on several sites, including with iraq. but the handling of that has .lso not been successful i think the military probably is reacting to that as well. i think it feeds into the formula but led us to where we are tonight. >> tom, we continue these your references, whisperers of the

preacher who lives in pennsylvania. i have heard from a number of turkish people that it is possible he is connected to the military faction attempting this coup. what do you know about this , notently mild islamist hard-line islamist -- i had thought this was more of a secretary and coup. guest: i can't really answer that. i focus more on the counterterrorism side of the turkey issue. i know there has been tremendous friction between him and erdogan, and i have met with some of his people here as well as with erdogan spokes in -- erdogan's folks in ankara, but i can't give good analysis on that. >> speaking of counterterrorism, we were reporting on a tragic mass shooting in an istanbul airport. how much do you think those kinds of concerns lead the military to go ahead and pull the trigger on something like

this, or lead a faction of the military to do that? they may feel that erdogan's beefed-up problems with the current lead to back counterterrorism. guest: there is no doubt that the turkey airport attack was a a largeruation on narrative, or larger complaint on the part of the military. example, as well as the many other attacks we have seen in the last year in turkey. i think this gave us a strong motivation to the military to express dissatisfaction through the coup and before that, through some of the comments that i think we have seen in turkey. i do think it is relevant, but again, this is a long time coming. this is a build up of grievances , and the attacks certainly stoked the fires among the

military, and i am sure they said, look, we are losing the country and we need to do something about it. i feel that the attacks play a significant role. nowp is reporting right that turkish soldiers have fired upon civilians on a bridge. obviously, this is the biggest concern, that the military tries to stage a coup, erdogan calls for the people to resist that, and violence breaks out between the people. what do you think the likelihood is of a civil war starting? know about at civil war, but you are going to have a large number of people who will protest the actions of the military. very populareen and has won many elections. he has the support of a lot of folks in the countryside, but even in the city. i would not be surprised if we see significant clashes between armed, innocence -- armed innocents and the military who support the coup.

this will be a bloody knife, i am sure, and we will see serious reverberations from it. hear, but tragic to we are watching it unfold. thomas anderson, thank you for joining us -- thomas sanderson, thank you for joining us. we hope he is wrong, that we don't have a bloody night unfold. >> with the time change, moving withinturday, in turkey, the mass of a country, a coup -- people, but 15 million within istanbul. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ it is 7:00 p.m. in new york city, 2:00 a.m. in istanbul. this is a bloomberg special report. we are covering an attempted coup right now in turkey. we have reports of gunfire, helicopters, and jets flying and istanbul. we know the military has blocked streets and bridges across the bosphorus, but also has not been able to capture president erdogan one, who continues to remain at large. tom: our