♪ >> on the show tonight hillary clinton's running mate search reaching new highs. she is expected to announce her pick next time in the next tony four hours. it could leak out at any -- next 24 hours. it could leak out and any moment. horrific tragedy overseas. multiple gun man have carried out a coordinated attack at a shopping mall in munich, germany. been killed,ave

others wounded. there have been no claims of from isis ory other terror groups. this horrible event comes a day after donald trump delivered a attrained and sobered speech the republican convention in cleveland last night. he pitchedd -- himself to voters as the world and nations only hope. this morning at a rally, trump instantly reverted back to his familiar trademark free styling ways. mike pence standing there behind him. he thanked his supporters and staff and also had some tough for his former nomination rival, john kasich and texas senator ted cruz. neither of which has endorsed

trump. i don't want his endorsement. what difference does it make? i have such great endorsements. stay home, relax, enjoy yourself. i don't want his endorsement. if he gives it i will not accept it. i will not accept it. i mett know his father, him once. i think he is a lovely guy. fact did was point out the that on the cover of the national enquirer there is a picture of him and crazy lee harvey oswald having breakfast. like orr how much you dislike, no matter what your feelings, whether you are the , whether youhio , or anynator from texas of the other people that i beat so easily and so badly.

you have no choice, you've got to go for trump. mark: joining me today is michael bender. what do you make of it? michael: whatever hope the republicans had, and i think it was only a little bit of hope, it came crashing back down to earth today. trump can't win this election with 30%, 40% of the vote like he was doing in the primaries. reach out to undecided voters and to independent voters. i'm not sure where he scored last night with them. those victories were lost today. this was supposed be a thank you rally and it turned into another one of these free styling comedy

routines. it reminded me of the call he did with his surrogates. surrogates, was supposed to thank them for their help, and turned into every worst nightmare of the campaign, where he was encouraged to go after the indiana judge on the trump university comment. greatest hits from the primary season. a few days ago trump tweeted cruz's speech was no big deal. obviously it's not. i'm not sure where the campaign goes from here. mark: this is what the kids call he can trump. room cracking up, he did thank his supporters. we saw more chemistry with mike just a few days ago.

if people are looking for last night's convention speech to be a template for a new sub speech, forget it. while he did talk about hillary clinton he certainly used a fair amount of time talking about other stuff, which republicans say won't help. and are looking at it saying the recent he raced all these questions was to put center, nott and let his convention fadeaway to try to take some of the oxygen away from hillary clinton's running mate. which we expected either today or tomorrow. michael: how long will that last and will he have another ace in his pocket mod for when that happens? stuff upmp can make and make news up anytime he wants. donald trump's speech clocked in at 75 minutes, but a fair amount

of that was applause. good has gotten pretty reviews for a lot of corners of his speech. his supporters saw it as a breakthrough moment. trump can look the part of a serious and restrained commander-in-chief. lambasted him for inducing fear and rhetoric. among those critics today was president obama, who had this to say about the tone of trump's convention this week. that --t: this idea president obama: this idea that america is somehow on the verge of collapse, this vision of violence and chaos everywhere doesn't really jive with the experience of most people. did trump do what he needed to do in his speech last night to help himself after

three rocky days at the convention in cleveland? michael: i don't think he did. the speech read different. we got a little bit difference in substance from trump. was a same full trump.d angry he was sweating by the end of that thing. substantively there were some changes. he talked about building the wall, promising to build the wall. there was no mention of mexico. expense --k at the look back at the acceptance speech. i think the tone of it, the length of it, i think it missed the mark.

mark: i am much more bullish on that speech, i thought he showed people he could be restrained. he framed the election as one more about change. the status quo is not good enough and he is the only person that can change it. i thought he showed a certain degree of confidence in how he approached the performance of the speech and how he laid out wanting to work with the american people. pretty good and it certainly ended the convention on a high note. made a couple of outreaches to minority groups. -- lgbtqned the lgt be community. i think these were a day late and a dollar short. gays from terrorists

isn't a bold step for any politician. mark: taking a break now. when we come back a look ahead at the democratic convention, which starts monday in philadelphia. talk about that and more right after this.

mark: talked all week about the role donald trump's family has played, as well as the high praise and intense scrutiny they have gotten for their speeches

over the course of the week. let's ask a different question. the sides and -- speakers, who are the winners this past weekend? >> both inside and outside the convention, if you are a member outside police- walked around. it was a little bit jarring if you turned a corner and saw 15 of them walking by in dark uniforms. there were people from the street almost on top of them, thanking them, giving them high fives. inside, whether on stage or in the crowd, the blue lives matter is going to be one of the memorable lines from this week. for all the talk about jobs, the only thing close to detail i

heard is if you are a police to yard they want border. the other memorable line, lock her up. they want to lock up hillary clinton. my losers, ted cruz. i thought it was a major miscalculation to decide to go on stage and not endorse trump. this vote your conscience line is not going to, you are not going to get that passed this crowd. i think people will remember that for years from now. mark: my winner is cleveland and my losers are the protesters. cleveland did great, not just law enforcement, but the whole city ran well. it is owes going to be crowded streets and street closings.

there are no rest -- there are new restaurants. cities go to host their conventions and be a four-day advertisement for the city. cleveland did great. everybody had a great time at cleveland wouldn't necessarily be people's first choice. so much buildup about how they were not only going to disrupt the convention but breakthrough with a message, a message about trump. while there were some protests didn'tand outside, they do anything to breakthrough in a way that dominated the messaging and offered any sort of rivalry. good week for cleveland, bad week for the protesters. as a cleveland native, i would agree with your winners on that one.

i may be biased, that doesn't mean i'm wrong. and herllary clinton campaign didn't take the day off. last night alone her team sent out a barrage of counter messaging, filled with 17 press releases criticizing and fact checking trumps a dress -- trump's address. they sent surrogates to cleveland, including the chair of the democratic party and top research -- opposition research director of the clinton campaign. howdy you think what happened in cleveland is going to impact the democratic convention in philadelphia next week regarding how both parties conduct themselves? democrats seem giddy, they can barely contain their excitement over having their convention next week in philadelphia right on the heels of the republican convention.

they are eager to display their party unity behind hillary clinton. certainly solid compared to what is happening in the republican party. anything that is halfway organized, halfway according to lookcript, that it will much better when compared to the republican convention. wonder about that is whether or not a scripted convention from democrats will seem too boring to viewers at home. mark: the press always looking -- if they can't run a convention how can they run a country? the trump although kids got a lot of attention, people are going to see the , both genuines celebrities as well as political stars. are going to say,

cleveland did not quite have the wattage that philadelphia had. i find these efforts of bracketing to be largely futile. there is so much of it and -- and both campaigns make a lot of mistakes. they don't differentiate between something that is a genuine tact that deserves to breakthrough and nitpick and criticize everything. reporters can't tell the difference. up next, the state of hillary clinton's running mate deliberations, and what it means for traffic and weather. and your weekend right after this.

>> joining us now is ed rogers, a washington post columnist whose latest dispatch is called, "the convention was lousy, the trump family show was interesting. -- was interesting to go -- interesting." if this was tim kaine today, tomorrow, sunday, what is the biggest risk for picking him as a running mate for hillary clinton? guest: i would be looking for someone who understands what needs to get done, has a great deal of experience. there are those who have great experience and can do that job really well. ine ticketclinton-kan would be strong going into november.

i feel like he is in a really good spot here. someone who has served in virginia so well. as senator he has been an incredible champion for women and families. have watched him expand and grow as a u.s. senator. there are others on that list as i think we are all proud to have such a great pool of candidates for the vice presidential nominee. michael: is there any risk to pick tim kaine? is -- kaine is a pretty fair pick. he is a sensible, reassuring, fair-minded person. mark: is tim kaine qualify to be president?

ed: sure he is. penc fit to be president? -- mike pence fit be president? stephanie: he has walked away from women in particular. mark: i know you have had issues, but is he qualified to be president? ed: of course he is. stephanie: you really want a president who will look out for women in this country, and he doesn't meet that. to a thank youce of supporters in cleveland, i thought the body language was even better. given that their personalities aren't the same, they seem to me to be off a very good start in terms of setting a tableau of partnership. how do you see that?

ed: that is the big question, what is the chemistry going to be? it takes an artful salt to be able to stand there and pull it off without ever looking shocked, alarmed, board. if pence is pulling it off, good for him. he is good for trump, he knows the positions, he knows the issues by heart. he is an excellent carrier of the republican flame. so far so good. mark: they did one event last weekend together, i didn't think the body language was particularly good. do you think that there is going

to be some alchemy when he is on the ticket that makes it seem more exciting? i think senator kaine, he knows what he is doing. he is a great leader. a longbeen in this for time as a mayor, a governor, and now a senator. he understands what he needs to do. hillary has to be really careful who she chooses. for her this is all about finding someone she can work with, that she can really move forward an agenda about an economy that works for everyone. is looking at her choices. she definitely arrives in the top because of his experience. michael: can you tell me more about what the strategy, what a wouldine pick strategy

do. what does it boiled down to what clinton must do for the next four months of the actual race? stephanie: that is exactly the difference, hillary clinton is not looking for someone who can help in the next four months. she is looking for someone who will serve as vice president of the united states for the next four through eight years. ed: it is partially about getting someone who can help hurt -- help her hide. he is about staying still, reliable, dependable, surefooted. campaign is about experience and confidence and knowing how to get things done and actually being able to accomplish that. .nd the choice is really clear you can have a clinton-kaine team, or even if it were buffet

warren, these teams are about the future. , that is aence team long shot of trying to unify parties where we did not see any unification of this party. changed election, she is not a changed candidate. changed off the cliff candidate. hillary's problem is she is more of the same. stephanie: i appreciate that -- trump is going to take us off the cliff. because that is what we have seen -- this isn't just about trump, this is about a republican party that has really spent the last couple decades using the rhetoric of racism and sexism to rise -- and sexism to

drive up their base. [indiscernible] chose donald trump to be the nominee. the most divisive candidate. mark: let me ask you one quick last question before we go to break. do you have any preference between those two if it comes down to those two? stephanie: we have gotten our choice and hillary clinton is the presidential nominee, the first woman in our history. willst whoever she chooses make a great ticket. michael: we will continue this conversation when we come back. ♪

mark: we're back with two of the

eople we have ever had on the program. stephanie, what was the highlight in a good way, a good way for the republicans, of the convention in cleveland? stephanie: well, i think so many folks have pointed to donald trump's children and how well they did, particularly his daughter last night. the republicanad platform before she spoke last night but she was impressive, and i think everybody agrees that that was really the highlight of the week. mark: do you accept the premise by republicans, if his kids are so grow eat, it speaks well of him? stephanie: it is an interesting point. their other parents involved.

i think what is so hard to imagine it is to see his daughter up there and then to hear the rhetoric that comes out mouth, particular as it relates to women. and that is a terrible disconnect and one that is not working for women voters in this country when you still have seven out of 10 who have a dislike for donald trump. mark: takeaway that pence spee ch, the trump family speeches, what did you consider the highlight this week? the rudy giuliani speech spoke well to the party that needed to be rally. i think chris christie's speech was ok, better than most. i'm a nuclear fan, his logic very compelling. -- i'm a newt gingrich fan. who else do i have to leave off the list? monday night got buried.

the sheriff from milwaukee really gave a great presentation. that you will hear more of out of other republican circuits. those are some good points. i think the headlines were different coming out and it seemed like every day there was something different, the chaos on the floor, the plagiarism in the second day, ted cruz fiasco. some mixed reviews of trump's speech. your latest column come u.s., is trump likely to win. y-- you ask. definitely maybe. how does donald trump win the election? ed: well, it's a relative race. hillary clinton, i think was the only reason this race is close. if the democrats would have nominated a non-criminal freshfaced, they would probably have a double-digit lead right now. if the republicans had nominated a well-adjusted, articulate

poised soul, they would probably have a comfortable lead over hillary. so, that is the dynamic we have got. i think a lot of what is propelling trump are the hillary negatives. afternvention, one miscue another, the plagiarism thing -- they should be a case study and political campaign management on how to take a problem between one and 10 that is a one and how do you make it a five over two days? things like that. one thing after another where -- message. message discipline. stephanie: campaigns reflect the candidate on the top. and that continues to be a really big challenge for the trump organization. is the candidate on the top. i hear you picked up some cleveland. this outrageous position republicans have been spending decades on trying to convince everybody about hillary's

background. after 25 years of the propaganda against her, surprise, there are some questions about this, but we believe going in with the unified party that we are going to see a conversation -- about voters and about americans need. michael: both of these candidates are lucky to be running against one another. stephanie, some of the high marks that trump got is because the bar is so low for him. are you concerned about the opposite for clinton? does she have to reach a high bar with her convention next week? stephanie: i wish i could say no. but the bar is always extraordinarily high for hillary clinton. and that has just been the case all along the way. i am confident she is ready to take on that challenge. when she has had those moments she has definitely risen to the occasion.

and i have no doubts that she is prepared and ready to go and ready to take on the fight. michael: anything you're looking forward to next week? arehanie: emily's list, we going to be celebrating a little bit. for 31 years we have been trying to get more democratic women elected. 19 women centers, -- 19 women senators. our first presidential candidate and it is not only that we are excited that it is hillary clinton but there really is a moment, it being the first woman in 250 years take the party for. yeah, i'd say there is a lot of excitement. mark: president clinton has been low late. donald trump last night highlighted some of bill clinton's actions such as nafta. do republicans fear the return of bill clinton in philadelphia? sort of suburban republicans do. i think a lot of the base cannot

gust theygh the disc have for him and see what it able performer he is. he has lost a step or two, heaven we all? -- haven't we all? nimbleness and interview setting, he has to be the top five in america to this day. i don't underestimate bill clinton. never have. chelsea clinton is speaking at our marquis spot on thursday. bill clinton not speaking at all. it seems like they are setting chelsea up to have as high profile of public turns as she has ever had. what is your expectation for the? chelsea is absolutely ready. in this case it is hard to figure this out but president bill clinton in this week is the husband of the candidate. is a little bit of a different role, but we have such amazing speakers, so many incredible people. is absolutely ready.

of course we have got president obama, vice president biden. we have senator warren and sen. sanders: it off monday. so, this is going to be quite a week for the democrats. mark: thank you both. we appreciate the friday chat. coming up next, more on hillary k and what itpic means for her convention week. if you are watching us and washington, d.c., you can listen to this program on the radio. theloomberg 99.1 f.m. in nation's capital. ♪

mark: with us here in washington, bloomberg politics senior white house correspondent and phil rocker of national

political correspondent for "the washington post." margaret, next week in philadelphia, the democratic convention. margaret: that's next week? michael: what are you looking forward to? togaret: i think it is going be very different from the republican convention. that was a lot of -- everything obama has done wrong. this is going to be may be a bar a hope and change tactic as much a she can pull that off, optimistic, unity, we will see all of the democratic all-stars in a way that we really did not see in the republican convention. the obamas will be there, biden, the risingon and stars that represent the democratic slices of the base. what's bernie sanders going to do? how are the professors going to react vis-à-vis the running mate? those are the questions. but i think in terms of, like, is the floor going to be full

every night? it will have a different flavor than the republican convention. michael: you just are also back from a week in cleveland. is that the contrast you will be looking for next week, or what's at the top of your list for anticipation in philadelphia? phil: i am looking for a change in tone. throughout the week in cleveland, speaker after speaker decried what they see as a country that is falling apart. there was a really heavy focus on immigration, on crime, terrorism, on a lot of sort of imagese downbeat, dark for the country that was punctuated by donald trump's speech last night. i think the democrats are going to try to present a more optimistic vision for the future, but also a more positive countrythe state of the today. i'm sure president obama will rebut some of the critique from talk about how the

economy actually is better now than it was in 2009. some of those for differences. one of those differences. one other thing is there was such a focus on the trump family. i think next week in philadelphia we will see many more of the leaders of the democratic party, just as usual roster of senators, governors, of elder statesman. michael: go ahead. margaret: it is and is a because i think we already saw president obama a little bit today try with the mexican president to begin rebutting the trump argument against, in terms of the u.s.-mexico relationship. a lot of foreign policy ground to cover next week. at thisllary clinton hour speaking in florida. some speculation that she may announce her running mate, although we do not expect the running mate to appear. so, what is up with an "the washington post" newsroom that you can do vols where you think the stance? know anything you

don't know. we are waiting for the news that could come any minute. eyes have been on tim kaine, the former mayor of richmond, he meets all the qualifications that hillary clinton has been working for -- looking for. my colleagues have been reporting that he is one of the two top finalist for hillary clinton. the other one to keep an eye on former iowack, governor. he would be a similar choice, a governing choice. he has a hit relationship with hillary clinton. there could be a surprise, but that seems unlikely. a lot of democratic sources are telling my colleagues it is down to kaine and vilsack. mark: within the democratic party at high levels people are very familiar with evan by and his failure to be on the ticket after being repeatedly considered by different top of the ticket presidential nominees. overm kaine is passed again after being the runner-up

for barack obama. is that going to do damage to him within the democratic party, his standing? margaret: if the clinton campaign really let tim kaine hangout for all these last few days, with all of this else up expectations and it is not him, they really would have done him a disservice. nok, he is going to be fine matter what. he has got a sterling reputation. that is what got him in this position twice now. he is 58. he has a long career ahead of him. whatever he wants to do, but it does sound not just for democrats i talked to but from republicans as well that many longtime political folks just feel that he is the safest, strongest choice for clinton in terms of his ability for some crossover appeal as well as to appeal to most sections of the democratic party. although the trade -- he may ha ve some work to do as it progresses. mark: we talked early in the show about how the democrats had a big presence in cleveland. the republicans will have one in philadelphia.

the national party chair, opposition researchers. and certainly a meta presence, a virtual presence through a lot of press releases. matter of analysis, does that stuff affect the stories we get done by reporters covering the other party's conventions? phil: around the edges. i do not think it has a big impact. i think when you're in cleveland for the republican convention you want to hear what the republicans have to say. you're not there to -- they are there to support the message of their party. there was a lot of news. next week we are going to be focused entirely on the democrats. they can cause some mischief and trouble, the other party, but there is no way that the republican national committee official in philadelphia is going to become the big story. michael: one more for you. kaine has been talked about as a safe pick. he will get out there on the campaign trail. give a sense of what we can expect from tim kaine as a

candidate, as a vice presidential candidate, what he would like -- when he actually his the campaign trail. margaret: i would expect the two of them to go out very soon together. running mate and we expect to see a joint appearance as soon as tomorrow. but we also would expect, after this convention, traditionally, she and her running mate to hit the ground together. we saw a preview with kaine of what he would be like in his appearance in the last week or so. deferential, pleasant, all golly shucks guy next door. even if he is talking about policy specific stuff, his role would be kind of to soften her, to make her comfortable and in a leadership role, and yet, between his gender, his religious background and his outrtise, to kind of flesh some of the areas where she could benefit from some help -- menss, you know, with

especially, but with also -- she seems to become to bowl in his presence. to the extent that they would appear together, that makes a big difference. michael: up next, the trump convention bump. some polling predictions when we come right back. ♪

itk: when i left cleveland, is clear a lot of republicans are still feeling that gold old convention high after the grand finale of donald trump's nomination party last night. here to explore a variety of things, including how long that euphoria might last and how it could affect all lovers of the

coming days, is our bloomberg politics analyst ken goldstein who joins us from washington. we have got three cycles in a row, including this one, with back-to-back conventions, which means republicans get can be squashed by hillary clinton and her running mate and their convention. what is the prospects of republicans getting not just an artificial bounce, but something that could endure into august and then the fall? ken: as you said, there's been a change, that convention bounces are real and they do absolutely matter, but i remember the first campaign i covered was 1988. and george h.w. bush went from 7 up after the convention. a number you remember, covering clinton in 1992, he went up 14 percentage points. after his new york convention. we are not going to see numbers

like that. what we saw in the last couple of election was more numbers in the one or two range. even if it is only a 1, 2 or three range -- people say don't pay attention to the polls -- but the polls we are going to see, maybe not here in this weekend because there is not enough time between the republican convention and the start of the democratic convention, but the polls we see democratic convention are going to structure this race going for. mark: there is a major disparity between the amount of money spent between clinton and trump and the amount of tv campaign ads run. trump insist that disparity is not going to hurt him? is he right? ken: i do not get to talk about ads because trump is not spen ding money on ads. and hillary has spent 60 million. if i was the trump campaign, i would say, look i have been outspent. i literally had nothing from the

air -- on the air. a couple million from the nra. there does not seem to be much of an impact. you are going to see impact of thewhen one side is up and other side is completely down to it we have seen times when it matters. if you remember, it was a different time, conventions were at the end of the summer in 2012, bvut mitt romney inexplicably went down during e republicanthat ca convention. a lot going on. it is clear that is when some major numbers moved in the 2012 race ann romney never got it back after that. mark: kind of crazy with a poll mad media world that a big event occurs like last night and people like us speculate wildly, was a speech good or not, and there is very little data to back it up. cnn did an instant poll of

people who watch the speech and asked the question, for instance, a bunch of questions, reaction to trump's speech, very positive, 57%. they asked people, will the thech move the u.s. in right direction. after the speech, 73% said yes. campaign has been touting this poll all day. based on the methodology, and comparable questions in the past, is this poll good news for the trump campaign? ken: it is no news for the trump campaign. if you are taking a sample of people who watch the speech. what sort of people watch the speech? it was not undecided voters. it was people who are fans, and fans of trump or fans of the republican party. and so, if you did not get that number, i might even be a little bit disappointed if i was trump that number was not even higher given the population that was likely sample there.

are alwaysls dangerous because you are not exactly sure her you are talking to and you do not do a lot of instantbacks. but an poll like a debate, i would put an instant poll after convention speech which draws a particular person. mark: the risk that trump does not come out of this convention with a bounce, a risk that he flat lines here? ken: listen, bounces rely on having one side completely positive that conventions. if your discussion for much of the show, there is debate about whether it is all good news for him. tend to bes also more pronounced. people are learning something new. listen, we have two candidates, trump and hillary clinton, who are pretty well known, which could mitigate the bounce and aren't particular well loved. so, you need someone there is potential for love and not well-known.

mark: ken goldstein. sisi and as always. thank you. we will be right back -- sustained as always. ♪

mark: tonight on bloomberg politics, i found some hot, tasty fresh news. donald trump has plans to form super pacs to end the political careers of ted cruz and john kasich. all the latest on hillary clinton's search for a running mate. up next, "bloomberg west" the c eo of pandora. until monday, when we see you from philadelphia, we say sayonara. ♪

e mark: you are watching "bloomberg west" police are warning people to stay indoors as they

hunt for the gun man who opened fire at a munich shopping mall. 8 people were killed, several wounded in a rampage authorities described as suspected terrorism. dy near the scene is being examined to see if it is one of three gunmen who carried out the attack. lande says that france will loan artillery to iraq. he's moving an aircraft carrier to the region. speaking to paris, president hollande pledge to act "firmly against terrorists." the highest court in france has ruled that christine lagarde will have to stand trial in the case stemming from her time as france's finance minister. she is accused of negligence that pave the way for massive corruption of government payout to a tycoon. virginia senator tim kaine is emerging as the leading contender to join the democratic ticket as hillary clinton's running mate according to two democrats who