tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg July 29, 2016 12:00pm-2:01pm EDT
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♪ >> from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am scarlet fu. .> i am amanda lang we are covering stories from new york, send it cisco. -- and san francisco. the american economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the second order. the european banking authority releasing the results of stress tests for european banks. how italian lenders are faring. >> we will hear from the ceos of 2 italian banks. on how some of the european banks are recovering from brexit-induced volatility. we are halfway through the u.s. trading day. let's go to julie hyman. she is tracking the moves. there are a lot of different
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catalysts and information to shift through. --julie: youthink would think that those would be bearish. they have made an intraday high. earlier, they did touch and intraday record. 2175.79.t if they close at this level it .ould be a closing record we did to get underwhelming stimulus from the bank of japan. we got gdp for last quarter, one .2 percent expansion. stocks were lower, but are now holding relatively well. .he dow is down by two points looking at the s&p 100 you have the fifth straight monthly gain come up by 5%. that is if you look at the one-month activity. even though today we are not seeing change, and we have traded sideways, still, records are happening.
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>> focusing on oil, what is the tally? julie: oil has not done well. it has been the worst month going back to last july. a 17% decline. going to june 8, the high for the year come you have a 19.5% pullback. oil is close to reentering a bear market. they have bounced intraday sessions. the dollar has gone lower, but it is bouncing around. looking at the one-month performance on exxon mobil, chevron, you can see the declines. exxon mobil is pulling back in the wake of the company reporting earnings that missed estimates and margins -- .efining margins -- falling 30% chevron reported its third-straight quarterly loss. international oil companies have largely pulled back, though not universally. bp a little higher, total and shell a little lower.
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there are winners. there are energy winners. chesapeake energy, southwestern, and williams company and not only have an oil business, but natural gas. natural gas has risen on the month. a lot of it's rise came yesterday with a gain in natural gas prices. interesting the diversion in oil and natural gas. canou wonder how long that last, natural gas can go its own way without crude oil supporting it. mark crumpton has more from our newsroom. mark: hillary clinton and tim kaine hit the road. that was after mrs. clinton formally accepted the democratic presidential nomination. she and her running mate began a bus trip through pennsylvania and ohio. donald trump is on the road. he will be in colorado springs, colorado after a stop in iowa.
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mike pence is in indianapolis. leadffic stop in san diego to a gunbattle that killed an anti-gang police officer and seriously wounded another. a suspect was taken into custody while authority search for others involved. in michigan six employees these criminal charges in connection with the flint water crisis. it includes misconduct in office, willful neglect of duty, and conspiracy. in april 2 regulators at a city employee were charged with official misconduct, evidence tampering, and other offenses. the united nations' envoy for syria is urging russia to leave the creation of humanitarian corridors around aleppo to the un and his partners. they say that its forces would open humanitarian corridors
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outside of aleppo and offer a way out for fighters to surrender. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. scarlet: we turn to european banks. second quarter profits declined 14%. you had wealth management and investment banking posting declines. madeeo of giorgio armani wealth management the priority. he spoke to manus cranny about the challenges, particularly those from brexit. about the near future and on all fronts, macroeconomics, risk aversion.nd we can measure it in terms of cash holdings. the cash holdings of our clients outside the u.s. is 28%.
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in the u.s., declared cash holdings up to 22% -- the highest level we have seen for a while. it is a challenging environment. what is holding declines back? we had brexit, geo politics, and negative rates in the second quarter. what is really holding them back? >> you just said it in your question. the issues are holding back investors. at this stage our job is to stay close and try to find the right risk in terms for those clients. many of them want to be extremely conservative. we not pursuing a strategy of pushing clients into risks they don't want to take. bank, you have fx, a rate business -- how does that perform versus equities? it has clearly had a very
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tough year on year comparison. last year, we had a fantastic first half, and the second half particularly in china. this year is more challenging their. we were pleased with our performance of the u.s. on equities. on the other side, a counter effect, we got solid results in the quarter. before the brexit and after the brexit vote. >> will fx be the driver in the back half. the real mover in markets is fx. will that be the cornerstone? >>. on its own. its own.- not on i'm pleased with the level of capital deployment and profitability that we have achieved. from the client's side, do you think that there is a possibility for clients with
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brexit? property values are under pressure and sterling has been crushed -- is there an opportunity? >> there are always opportunities, but we need more clarity about what form the brexit vote will take. and how people will be able to evaluate where there are opportunities. there are challenges. not only for the u.k., but the entire european system. >> the key thing as the head of is that the only risk you focus on? >> it is by far -- it is not a risk in terms of having to find other options and how to operate . we have a high degree of flexibility. we have a strong local presence in europe. in frankfurt, luxenberg, any of the northern cities in europe. we would be able to play with resources should that be
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necessary. the outcome could be that the u.k. will rethink its access to europe. the ubs ceo. was profits were lower for barclays. from a year ago missing estimates. fixed income trading revenue outperformed european rivals. the bank is predicting less pain for the unit last year. the ceo echoed his counterpoint, pointing to the brexit as a big risk going forward. vote,lowing the brexit one of the first euro-bond issues for railroad company from germany. we did the first big ipo coming out of europe for a privatization in italy. i think that the barclay president in europe is important for barclay and also free europe. i would add that in the brexit we as recently as
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last month had to completely reengineer the legal constitution of our business in the united states. we had to create and you bank holding company to execute our business in the u.s. we are in the process of reengineering our banking presence in the united kingdom to meet the rules. we have to create a new bank called barclays u.k. adjusting the legal construct to execute business strategies is something that we are getting practiced at. brexit will be another issue that will require us to adjust how we do business in europe, but i am confident that because of the value that we bring to europe that we will find a way, together with the british government, so that barclays can remain an important presence in europe. >> dealing with a lot of changes at the moment. let's talk about the lower for longer interest rates environment. but headache is that giving you?
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we heard from lloyds bank yesterday, the impact on branch closures. will you have to close branches? >> let's see what happens. i do think, and i would interpret comments made by governor carney, i think that central banks around the world are beginning to question the trade-off of zero to negative interest rates in terms of ,enerating economic growth versus the danger it poses for the financial system. 50 basis points for bank rates. we have a long way to go. let's see how the bank of england reacts to what is coming and the economic numbers down the road. we have a great net interest margin at 350 basis points. we will be fine if there is an say 25 basisack, points. negative interest rates are a challenge to the financial system. in the u.k. in particular, we
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bounce. a new intraday high. we have been pretty close to that. watching the nasdaq, flirting with nice levels. abigail doolittle is at the nasdaq. abigail: similar to the other equity indexes, the nasdaq of 1%. steam, up 4/10 physically at the market site, the biggest winner is talent, a tech company. a data and cloud integration service that went public. the seventh tech ipo this year in a challenging ipo year. 53%e are 62 ipo's, down year. the majority, 46, have gone up in the nasdaq. this is a good one up nearly 43% . opening, it was up more than 50% . a a lot of excitement around talend.
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amazon on pace to close at all time high. it is all about the cloud. they reported a nice second quarter. -- more than00% 800% -- on a year-to-year basis beating estimates by 59%. that strength came from the cloud helping amazon put up a fifth consecutive quarter of profitability. the nasdaq up modestly. whynn resorts down 5.9%. one of the big drags on the nasdaq after they posted somewhat soft second order las vegas revenue. down 1.1% year-over-year. whynn resortshat has allocated 100 tables to the new whynn resorts palace. that was below estimates. it shows how serious beijing about the tabletop reallocation. more than 20% downsides for the
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share of whynn resorts. one of the top for the nasdaq. it has been a blockbuster week for tech earnings. twitter, amazon, and alphabet reporting numbers. it was not all good news. leading fourphabet gainers. to break it down is the editor at large, cory johnson. , a prettye on tech good quarter. cory: we saw some of the big tech companies, facebook, apple, amazon, google, good results. scarlet: twitter, not so good. we count that as a big company? retail,logy, winners in they have companies of similar size. only are no 2 competitors, smaller. in technology the winner is 10 times larger.
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you have been looking at them in detail, let's start with alphabet one of the closest watched stocks. folks want to have this in their portfolio. what do you think? cory: reporter was strong with interesting accelerating growth. not just that they are growing fast, but it is getting better every quarter. they tried to downplay any expectations for the next quarter during a conference call. what we see is a trend of not only growth, but you can see it getting better in september, december, following only a little in march, better in june. that kind of growth for one of the biggest companies in the world is amazing. scarlet: we talked about how it is a search engine, but it has businesses that are contributing. like cloud. big thatdon't know how business is, but it is not the
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which isicrosoft's, not near the size of amazon web services. that not gained a lot of traction, but everyone is looking for that to happen. amazon web services, a huge standout in terms of profit. way the business works is they keep prices low, accelerate delivery, get people to buy more stuff, and filemaker profits back into the business to use the cash flow to grow up distribution. what is interesting with amazon web services is that it is profitable. even though they cut prices over and over. 9.5% of the overall business -- their margins were so good that he 5% on the quarter -- 25% on the quarter. company is overall what we saw as a percentage of the overall profits, 56%.
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scarlet: that also gives ceo jeff bezos a long leash to do other things likes spend money on original programming. at netflix they're focused on how much they commit to that. amazon doesn't worry about it. he has done great work on prime. there are spending $2.5 billion in original content, half the size of netflix. that it is just a little part of their business. i don't think expectations are high going into the quarter. cory: that makes it hard to disappoint. twitter is having problems around technology. they do not have the tools to have video ads. advertisers are not paying for them because they cannot tell advertisers how successful they are. scarlet: they have no pricing power and cannot scale up. cory: other than that, things are great.
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♪ scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i am scarlet fu. amanda: our salaries are something we don't like to talk about other than close friends and family. it can be awkward, but pay secrecy allows for wage discrimination -- especially against women and minorities. rebecca, people do not like to talk about calories because there is a social stigma. it is something we don't do. pc behaviors
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coming to an end, perhaps. do you see movement on that? >> i asked my coworkers if they would share their salary. half for open. that is surprising to me. it is uncomfortable to talk about. i think it speaks to a larger movement. to begin pay transparency -- two and pay transparency -- to begin pay transparency and and pacing received. >> we're seeing a mentality of openness around compensation. thatorporations they fear it would drive compensation higher. like if i knew what scarlet was a raise, anddemand vice versa. is it by being open that we get parity? >> it is more about fairness than trying to squeeze the most out of your employer. if you find out the person literally sitting next to you is
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making more and you do the same job, hopefully you would do something about it. >> what companies are leading the way? >> startups and smaller companies. we have seen bigger companies talk about it, but the biggest most high-profile example is a company called buffer. they have complete transparency. you can go online right now and look up the salary of any employee. for many the gaps people, and more true for women and possibly minorities than men, is our understanding of our own value. we find it difficult to ask or raise or ask for the bigger number. what can we do to improve that? >> is hard to negotiate when you don't know what everyone else is making. that is why there is such a big push the hind transparency. it is only one tiny aspect of that.
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i think that knowing the field, knowing what other people are doing, and coming into your boss's office with a list of the right things helps. >> what is the appropriate response when someone asks you for your seller if they want to work at the bloomberg? , though it is it uncomfortable, we should try to overcome that. >> thank you. listen to game plan on wednesday itunes.com/gameplan. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it is finally clearing up just in time for friday afternoon. this is "bloomberg markets." let's look at the bloomberg headlines. marquez more from the newsroom. mark: hillary clinton and donald trump are in a virtual tie in misery. this is clinton leads by one point, 41-40 in the mason-dixon polling and research service. that means the state, which president obama lost in 2008 and 2011 could be in play. vote,ohnson has 9% of the while jill stein has 1%. sandy hook elementary school was torn down after a gunman's rampage in 2012. a new $50 million school has been built on the same property and is scheduled to open next month. local officials hope that allowing everyone to look at the school this week will give students what they call a quite respectful and appropriate opening. in other news, the governor of florida says zika infections by
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clicking for mosquitoes in the miami area. he said no mosquitoes have tested positive for zika. more than 1600 infection seven reported in the u.s., but the first -- four in florida would be the first to be linked to travel. pope francis was at auschwitz today. he was the third consecutive pontiff to make the pilgrimage to the place where adolf hitler's forces killed more than one million people, most of them jews. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. by mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. scarlet: thank you so much. investors are second-guessing the wisdom of alternative investors after the subpar performance after the financial crisis. a new study finds not all strategies are created equal.
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plenty offer absolute returns and diversification. joining me to discuss the findings is david hunt, ceo of the global investment arm of that -- before gets of the findings, what qualifies as an alternative investment? you can say there is a huge change in how you define it, from the early days in 2000 to the post crisis period. david: originally alternatives really were anything that was alternative to equities. anything that was not correlated was considered that. it has evolved. we looked at a broad range of private equity, hedge funds. we looked at the various types of real estate as part of that. in terms of what investors can put into a portfolio. amanda: there has been a bit of a pal over this because of performance and investors
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talking down alternatives, saying go for the etf that maximizes the index. which ones can do well for investors? david: there has been a lot of discussion about the role of alternatives. one of the reasons we wanted to do this was we felt the question itself was actually not being asked correctly. a lot of the discussion has been around narrowly what is in the performance or fees of different strategies? that is not the problem investors are trying to solve. what they really need to focus on is what is the role that alternatives are playing in their overall portfolio construction. and over a long period of time. we went back to 2000. we are looking at two cycles. we are looking at not just performance, although that is performance, risk, and the diversification. one of the things we found his alternatives do offer real value or some of the strategies do in
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terms of providing both pure alpha and in terms of diversification. that holistic picture has not been taken in a lot of the discussion going on so far. scarlet: you told me we were only halfway through a global deleveraging. lower for longer is the new norm. and strategies are best suited for this article economic cycle? is a: lower for longer core part of this whole look at alternatives. one of the things driving demand for alternatives is the sense that if we are lower for locker -- longer and have more muted growth, expectation for equities is also lower, then what other things can there be that would help to boost returns? they are very related. what we found is over a long period of time certain strategies really did add value. both return and diversification. we found in the private equity area that large buyout did.
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bothund in real estate, core and opportunistic did. and we found they added value. on the flipside we found wings like funds to funds, hedge products, the other hedge fund strategies that work event driven are very correlated with the equity markets. . it did not provide a value amanda: he talked about the various asset allocations in classes. we have got a sample allocation that is basically one third, one third, one third. you would tailor this very specifically for the requirements of each investor presumably. david: we would say there is a real concern about trying to do this on averages. what other things the study shows is that there is a wide variety of outcomes that happened even within these asset classes.
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we have known that for a long time and private equity. the top 25% was much better than the average. it turns out as more people have gotten into these strategies that is also true for hedge funds and true for venture and other asset classes. choosing the right managers is a critical part of getting this right. scarlet: we can't ignore the cost structure. it is so unwieldy. have fees adapted to the new environment? david: i would say not fully. we would expect that fees would become more aligned with those strategies that are really delivering alpha and diversification. we will see quite a bit of pressure on fees for those where you can get those factors and leverage beta in a much cheaper format elsewhere. amanda: high fees are a reason why people like warren buffett say watch out. you have written that may be in your last conversation with scarlet, you are concerned with your. case for returns people are
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getting into riskier assets in the understand. how big of a problem is that? emerging markets are suddenly all the rage again. emerging market debt. our people aware when they get this kind of returns it comes with higher risk? david: i wish i had a happier tale for you but i do feel broadly investors have not yet internalized the real reality of lower for longer. the reality is expectations for returns need to come down. plans,l have a lot of both in the u.s. and abroad that are expecting returns that are 7% or 8% over a cycle. quite honestly we think the number is 5%, 6% on a reasonable basis. see reasonable expectations for what they have and be able to achieve that without undue risk. overshooting is what leads
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to people shooting for higher returns, but we will shoot for returns they can be achieved within risk tolerances. scarlet: there is a gap in terms of what people of expecting and reasonably get? david: that is correct. scarlet: there is a slow realization that perhaps negative interest rates are not effective in driving stimulus. the extra monetary policy has perhaps run out of effectiveness. du you think the bank of japan included the same thing with his decision yesterday in only adding to its etf purchases? david: i think their logic is more complicated than that particular piece of it. we believe negative rates in many parts of the world have ceased to be particularly effective. that is really true in economies where you have an aging population. you can imagine for those economies the lower rates are more worrying to people because
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they don't feel they will have enough savings. and whether or not people have mortgages have less to pay month-to-month is less important. we are starting to see savings rates move up around the world. that is actually more likely to happen with these negative rights. therefore the stimulus that is hoped for may not really happened. to address your question about has got to be firs -- structural reform. the bank of japan and others, somehow we have got to get more structural reform. amanda: you have been bullish on japan in the past. david: we do believe long-term in japan, but we do think there needs to be fundamental ere for thereform thr economy to in a growth trajectory. scarlet: you mentioned equities
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are fully priced. there was a lot of bond naked equities as a look for some kind of yield. with the s&p 500 making intraday just this afternoon, do investors recognize stress evaluations in equities? are they comparing apples and oranges? david: one of the reasons you continue to see so much money in the equity market is not because people love the inherent fundamentals of equity, but onause the dividend yield stocks looks pretty attractive relative to what you can do in bonds. one of the effects of this very accommodative policy has been to drive more money and more stock markets higher. we would say that is not necessarily the fundamentals. it is simply the lack of other fixed income alternatives. scarlet: david hunt, thank you so much for joining us. great to see you. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are exploring portable benefits for workers in nontraditional jobs.
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♪ you are watching bloomberg. amanda: this is your global business report. the bank of japan is limiting the expansion of its stimulus program. a interest rates and bond purchases unchanged. it did expand etf purchases. scarlet: the biggest deal in the beer industry may happen after all. improved $104 billion takeover offer.
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amanda: in today's quick take we look at how the newly expanded panama canal to give a big boost the u.s. exports of liquefied natural gas. ♪ would begin with the bank of japan's most anticipated policy announcement and years. it left investors underwhelmed. they kept their bond buying target and policy rates unchanged. economist form japan is nearing a dangerous -- danger zone. >> if you lose below 96 than the pain really kicks in. the real reason they are not acting on yen directly is because of the g-7 commitment and the hope that the u.s. will pass tpp. that's why abe restricted exchange-rate intervention. scarlet: prime minister shinzo abe outlined his plan earlier this week. the government has been pressuring the boj to do something. amanda: second quarter profit plunges barclays. berkeley'sion loss.
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ceo attempt to turn around the bank that was dealt a blow by the u.k. vote to leave the european union. bloomberg asked about the effects of brexit. >> adjusting our legal construct in order to execute our business strategy, something we are getting pretty practiced at. brexit will be another issue double require us to adjust how we do our business in europe. i am confident because of the value we bring to europe that we will find a way together with the british government so that barclays can remain an important presence across europe. scarlet: the irs says facebook may oh is $5 billion in taxes. it has to do with their decision to transfer to global operations to ireland six years ago. facebook says its balance sheet could suffer. they plan to challenge the irs in court. amanda: the biggest deal involving beer makers is making -- moving closer to completion.
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they have recommended a takeover option of $103 billion. abs sweetened the offer after complaints from the biggest shareholders. it's time for the bloomberg quick pic will be provide contact. and background on issues of interest the first liquefied natural gas ship has to the pen and a -- passed through the panama canal. did means less time in less money spent getting american gas across the pacific. natural gas has a lot going for it. it is cheap, burns cleaner, it is plentiful. the new route is just a new reason why it might be the reason of the future. >> there are five major energy sources in the world right now. petroleum, natural gas, coal, revealed the energy and nuclear power. thanks to the u.s. shale in fracking boom and the fact is now cheap and plentiful and clean, natural gas may be the fuel of the future.
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big oil companies are using technology that turns into liquefied natural gas, or lng, a commodity that can be shipped all over the world. reshaping the politics of the global energy. here is the situation. the trickiest problem with natural gas is right there in the name. is a gas. most gas travels to pipelines. them etc. be difficult if the u.s. wants to sell it to say korea, but a few things make shipping natural gas possible. process of super cooling natural gas to -250 degrees fahrenheit, converting it to a liquid and reducing its volume by about 600 times. it's like going from a beach ball to a ping-pong ball. this exit awful to transport gas natural pipeline but on really big ships, that leads us to a fleet of $250 million tankers. some the size of almost four american football fields. they can carry lng all over the world.
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the only problem is the ships are too big to fit in the panama canal. until now. canal billion panama project was finished in june 2016, allowing for faster shipping dickey markets like asia. what does this mean for global energy? a growing number of countries are trading in lng, with 34 nations importing it by the end of 2014 compared to just 15 and 2005. the demand depends on how fast countries can turn away from coal, the largest source of power generation in the world. one elegy selling point is that it is cleaner, producing about half as much carbon dioxide as coal. oil cavities are pushing into the lng world to embrace the greener future. show's fit -- shell's acquisition of the bg group made it the largest lng trader/ not everyone is on board. coal is still cheaper,
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renewables pollute less, and company -- countries like japan focus on nuclear power after starting to get its reactors back up and running after shutdowns prompted by the the synonymy. -- the synonymy. it can raise gas prices for american consumers. scarlet: you can read more about natural gas at niquick on the bloomberg. had to bloomberg.com for more stories. ♪
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with the markets basically levitating at these record highs, you have a gdp print they came in weaker than anticipated. amanda: i wonder what the markets are doing based on that bad data today if we didn't have some big companies like alphabet and google propping up the broader indices. the gdp data was very soft. and changed the expectation for when the fed will move. we watched wwrp. the expectations changed quite dramatically from yesterday to today. scarlet: come inside for a chart that highlights what is going on with udp. the light wind is the commerce department. the last was 1.2% for the second quarter. this does get revised two more times. that compares with the consensus estimate among economist for 2.5%. the trend coming into this report was data better than anticipated. you have the atlanta fed chief forecast being trimmed as well. that is more of a live time rate of what the economy is growing
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at. amanda: did you feel there is a disconnect between the s&p hitting new highs and the economy that remains kind of lackluster, come inside the terminal and have a look at the forward valuation. this is the s&p valuation that goes back to 2000. not since 2002, or this goes up to 2002. we are getting high levels for at least the last 10 years. of not quite.com era levels valuation. this is a full value market. scarlet: this goes to what david hunt was just telling us. bond investors coming in and their hunt for yields, looking for this dividends and bond proxies like utilities and increasingly consumer staples to generate some of the returns they can't get in a negative interest rate world. amanda: that yield sometimes being delivered. we are seeing bond issues turning to stock buyback. that feeds into the valuation of this market.
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scarlet: we will switch gears. amanda: companies like google have been a boon for consumers for certain, quote one thing missing from the burgeoning gig economy is how they can pay into five civil -- for workers. congress is working to change that. great to have you with us, chris. what is it that congress is hoping to do here? workersraditionally would rely on their employers for benefits like health insurance and retirement plans. the problem is if you move from one job to another, you are starting over with a new plan and new administrators. the idea is with the portable plan is to allow the worker to take the same benefits they are already getting from one job to the next. the important aspect of it for sharing economy post is that it would allow multiple employers to pay into the same plan. if you're driving in uber and picking up work on task rabbit,
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both employers to kick into the same benefits plan. scarlet: is as a democrat issue, a republican issue? how much support does it have any divided congress? enough we'resingly seeing support on both sides of the aisle. at least we're seeing people on both sides taking a very strong interest in this issue and starting to think that how this might actually get done. amanda: what to the companies themselves think about this? this will no doubt drive costs up. chris: the companies are actually liking it. ,he issue here is that uber they typically treat their workers as independent contractors. they are skittish about giving benefits and training and other things to these workers because they don't want to be tagged as traditional employers for liability purposes. what they like about the portable benefits system and what they are pushing for is some kind of regulatory fix that
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would allow them to attract workers by offering some benefits without necessarily taking on that old traditional employer liability. scarlet: this is a discussion point right now. any sense of when this might have concrete progress? chris: we will see some tinkering at the city and state level first. dol has put out a grant program for instrumentation. and the next congress i think you'll see people talk about legislation. amanda: thanks chris. still ahead, activist investors turning up the volume. should it be music to shareholder ears? he will talk to the author of "dear chairman" next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: from bloomberg world headquarters, good afternoon. scarlet: we are covering stories from toronto and new york to moscow. afterllar tumbling today showing tepid u.s. economic growth. amanda: oil rebounds in the weaker dollar after the oversupply of oil and refined products. scarlet: in developing nations stocks are down as the bank of japan announces additional stimulus that did not meet analyst estimates. we are halfway into the trading day. we had to the markets desk where rami has the latest. rami: markets really have been in a volatile session today. we had session highs and now we are someplace in between. this is where the market stands right now. the dow was off by 1/10 of 1%.
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s&p 500 is on the flipside in the green. the nasdaq is similar with the s&p 500. this all follows the lackluster u.s. gdp reading forecast for the second quarter coming at 1.2% versus an estimate of 2.5%. despite that some interesting stuff. come to my terminal. i want to shave the seasonality functions. ink at what's happening terms of the s&p on a monthly basis. rising fory been the past five months in a row. we are on track for another rise in july. basically five or six months in a row in terms of positive gains for the s&p despite what is coming in in terms of gdp. let's flip over to the imap function. this is the look at the sector health of the s&p's 10 sectors. similar to the next trading on the major markets we are seeing mixed trading in terms of telecom. at&t, verizon doing the best.
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materials is down by about 6/10 of 1%. earnings that did miss estimates. let's bring that up and see how they are doing right now. it's definitely seeing its biggest fall in the past month. second-quarter earnings as well. they missed estimates. came in at 1.7 billion versus 2.2 billion. it is down by about 5%. revenue also missed. coming in less than $110 million. it is seeing a turnaround in the third quarter but definitely has investors hanging onto the third quarter. scarlet: we have the equities picture. what about commodities? rami: we are seeing the ups and downs nearing the market. let's look first at wti crude. we were on track for a bear market, but that has definitely
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turned around right now. it is up above $41 a barrel. of 310 to 1% right now. and that has been rising as the dollar has been falling. the spot index is down by 1.1%. hitting near session lows after the u.s. gdp data. now it is negative. let's look at gold futures with this next trading. up by about 1%. $1354. scarlet: let's check in with the first word news. mark crumpton has more. mark: san diego police around the house located about half a mile from the side of the gun battle that left one officer dead and another seriously wounded. the police officer usable for the urgent man to leave the house. the least that needed several devices. the standoff began several hours after a traffic stop by and
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taking officers that led to a shootout. a federal appeals court found a north carolina voter id law was enacted "with discriminatory intent and must be blocked." laws013 rewrite of voting in north carolina required photo identification to cast in person ballots. the opinion reverses a lower court's ruling that had upheld the law. -- charity save the children says a hospital supports in northern syria hasn't bothered casualties reported. the syrian observatory for human rights also reported that airstrikes hit a hospital and a center for first responders in a global village. in 2014 and opened has an on-call pediatrician and six incubators for premature babies. in the wake of this month's failed coup, turkey escalated its government crackdown. 50,000 passports of them revoked. turkish authorities have already fired or suspended thousands of soldiers, bureaucrats and
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academics. ♪ global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda, back to you. amanda: yahoo! is hurtling into the sunset with a good strong push for shareholder group star board value. miller may see me clinking glasses. it's no secret that activist investors appetite to gotten bigger in recent years, but is it a good thing for other investors and for corporate america? let's ask jeff graham, the author of "dear chairman." he is also a hedge fund manager and teaches value investing at columbia. thank you very much. as we try to answer the question our activist investors good or bad, in what circumstances are the good guys and bad guys? if theyey are good
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drive long-term shareholder value in the bad guys if they destroyed it. isnda: one of the problems understanding how long-term their long-term is. often they come in and they want quick returns on the investment. you see them selling as soon as the stock pops. that the long history of activism. is there a way to judge for the quality is of the activism? jeff: there is really not. among the key takeaways is that these activist investors, they are economic actors how to make a buck. in the right situation, even if they promote shareholder value, they will do the right thing for themselves. the broader point i think is a good ultimately -- public governance is hard. when you have activists they put his accountability into the system.
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the system needs it. scarlet: i think about yahoo! with marissa mayer, ultimately could not right the sinking ship . there is a public battle she had with starwood value. they succeeded in pushing management to move sooner rather than later with the sale. you wonder if there were lessons that could of been learned from reading jeff's book. amanda: we will see how much of the favor she was in for the sale of the company. it seems like a departure of the strategy he was pursuing. jeff: that is a classic hard situation. if you're on the board of the it's like a melting ice cube or declining company. isn't the right thing for shareholders to sell the company now or to try to turn it around? scarlet: we have seen activism in canada. boards are overly clubby. doesn't make you a target?
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of share price decline might make you one if they think they can do something better. either issues that are red flags activists? eff: the main thing them into a target is if your stock price is down. if your chart looks like this, your target. in its this, as clubby as you are, you will probably get a pass. scarlet: what are the best practices to deal with activist investors? veryre suddenly getting opinionated letters from activist investors, what is the least painful and most opportune way of managing this new relationship that you did not ask for? jeff: the best practice is to communicate well. it is also to its is a figure areas of weakness and to be communicating before things go badly. beforehad a conversation the share price falls, like it the weak spots are things you
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have talked about, than it helps your cause. scarlet: immediate engagement is required. you can't just wish it goes away. jeff: it's in the interest of the ceo to make sure the shareholders understand the intricacies of your business and the areas of weakness. if they misunderstand that, if you underperform, it will be harder to win them. amanda: corporations were less focused on next quarter's profits and a much broader array of stakeholders, including communities and their employees. don't propagate this push towards what is happening is quarter on the bottom line. is that a good thing for america at large? : that's called a stakeholder view. the community and your labor force, it's the job of the board
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to be sure they are treated properly. beganhareholder ownership to concentrate in the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's they give more power to the shareholders. there is a particular incident in my book where ross perot does after gm. that was a real turning point that empowered the shareholders to the point that we are now. is it a good or bad thing? it's a real fundamental lesson about capitalism. scarlet: what do you think? jeff: if you're concerned about labor -- it's clear in communities that the market is decided it does not matter. you have big corporations that move all the time. they will move from a drop of a dime if they can drive profits. goal is for if your labor to be treated better as a citizen, i think the best way to
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make it happen is through policy and not just by propagating bad corporate governance. this is also the same system that pays ceo's that make bad decisions. to labor inhier the 1960's and 1970's but for other reasons. scarlet: herbalife is reinstating a stock buyback according to our reporting based on people familiar with the matter. this is so they could squeeze short seller bill ackman. at the battle between different activist investors, right? is that a good thing for the company to have acted as investors pitted against each other? jeff: if we live in a world where companies can have multiple activists, it allows the passive shareholders to decide and use their judgment. ultimately it is a good thing to have multiple views. amanda: wider activist investors
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not concerned about ceo pay? we talked to bob nardelli. where is that? jeff: it's about the growth of activism. i neglected issue because it's incredible he thorny. the truth is a good ceo can drive a lot of value and you want to reward those people well. i think the answer is ultimately ok to pay ceos well, but when they need to go, fishing go fast. -- they should go fast. this whole era of golden parachutes endboards being so generous that they pay them on the way out is a little bit egregious. scarlet: jeff graham, author of "dear chairman." amanda: surprisingly high marks for russian president lot of your put in on how he is handling the economy. we will explain why next. we w -- this is bloomberg. ♪
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amanda: we have breaking news. information is saying private equity is mulling investment in hp enterprises for a buyout specifically. this is according to information private equity is said to mull a buyout of a fee enterprises. big move on the stock. if you want to take a look at the longer-term on hp. this is what the stock chart looks like. for a long time to get to the movement in the last year or so. quite a nice move to the outside, delivering not bad value. we will see if this comes to pass. scarlet: we are getting a burst of trading with stock up 4.4%
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earlier. erasing earlier losses and a straight shot up with a leg higher. the intraday move in hpe. amanda:. market value is 33 -- $33.5 billion. scarlet: this is the sexier part of the company. hewlett-packard enterprises. not the left over. the good company versus the back of any. we will continue to monitor this movement for you. amanda: time for some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. herbalife is considering bringing back stock purchases after this month settlement with u.s. regulators. that is a move that could be used to squeeze shortselling nemesis bill ackman. there has not been any buyback since 2014. exxon mobil posting it smallest profit since 1999. they said output was heard by wildfires that ravaged the
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oilsands region of western canada and aging wells. wells lost an average of $5.6 million a day during the quarter. last week ask on agreed to pay $3.6 billion to papua new guinea for a focus gas explorer enter oil. pushing jeffn bezos higher. is now third place. that is ahead of warren buffett after gaining some $2.2 billion of the last two days. owns 82 million shares of the behemoth online retailer and is seen as increased wealth -- welding crease where than $6 billion in 2015. sony, which in years past has scaled back on businesses, pushed a surprise profit. it more than doubled operating income from the sale of playstation's and software. amanda: we went to reiterate we
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are watching hbe, hewlett-packard enterprises. a report coming across the screens that suggest that pe is mulling a buyout. the stock is fighting on an intraday basis. i think we have got it still at session highs. scarlet: is taking another leg of since he probably the headline. now of 6.8%. $21 70 since per-share. -- $21.70 per share. amanda: the volume is getting raise on audiobooks. how they have become the fastest-growing business in publishing. don katz will be here to tells about that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the publishing business according to the association of american publishers. revenue has nearly doubled since 2012, dictating half $1 billion in 2016. one of the companies that is capitalizing is it is audible. >> $2.8 billion market. welcome everybody on bloomberg tv. thanks so much. this is bloomberg advantage. we are lucky to have don katz with us, if executive of audible with us. welcome to bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. talk to us about this market. is the fastest-growing part of the publishing market. don: there are lots of trends. is becoming a lifestyle. audible invented this idea of technology driving this category forward. the growth numbers coming out our a little bit of both the agencies that try to put these metrics together getting their act together. it's only as good as the people that report in publishing
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numbers. audible has been growing at massive rates forever. we were on nasdaq. all you have to do is extrapolate the data from those days. cory: the growth rates continue? don: at a massive rate of scale. the question is how to keep growing so fast? it's an interesting science at the moment. there is the founder's mentality that the two guys put out. there is not that much -- not that many examples. amazon is one an audible is another. this is a case of basically repositioning a new category around the spoken word. basically it's using technology, upping the artistry of the actual performances, making it available at the right price. and in creating all this infrastructure around it. in audible's case, the best customer is the internet are known. actors to create
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these nuanced performances of these brilliant scripts, which of the best books. it has just become a way that people use time. that's one of the key values. there is massive amounts of time for you can't use your eyes to read or look at the screen. you can multitask while driving. hundreds of millions of hours of time we still have not even touched that people spend time that they consider low value in traffic. you edit to the exercising, the biggest trend is listening at home with entire families. cory: i will be listening to a book of my run and come back in and youy amazon echo guys have this figured out where it will go to the place i was in the book on my phone, on my echo it asserts playing there. don: bookmarks in the cloud. you walk into the kitchen, pick up your book. there was a whisper thing for voice that is cool technology. that we keep inventing.
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you can read your tablet, put it down in the living room, jump in your car and the audible version up the book you have been reading silently in the car. he get home, think of the tablet. is right there. cory: [indiscernible] don: no. is accelerated. it's a cold will tipping point. i think that the customers are telling each other about it. entire families are adopting it. carol: my daughter told us the book, even though we
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have tablets, unity feature this year. you can cut a piece of something there listening to and share it with their friends and family. that doesn't kill to younger audience. -- that does appeal to younger audience. don: it allows you to send the entire book to just anybody you want. you, do you want to review it? don: the audible digital media experience, you on it forever. you can replay it and not actually given away to people who may want it. is just another paradigm that creates more awareness and growth. that someoneaudio is selected for you, it's probably some to you want. are they sending the book clips, how does it help gain
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markets. let's begin with first word news. mark crumpton has the news. mark: hillary clinton and tim kaine are on the road today, hours after mrs. clinton formally accepted the democratic nomination for president. they have begun a bus trip through two battleground states, pennsylvania and ohio. donald trump is there as well. he will be in colorado springs after a stop in iowa last night. a traffic stop in san diego led led to anattle that antitank police seriously wounded another. the suspect was taken into custody while authorities search for others who may have been involved. loretta lynch think the group of police officers in baton rouge, louisiana for their work during what she called challenging times. three officers in the city were killed in an ambush this where -- this month. she told responders we feel with
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you and we support you. lynch and president obama spoke at a vigil on thursday. the united nations is suspending aid in northern nigeria because of the terror group boko haram. they wounded to aid workers in a subway attack. more than 5000 people are living in catastrophic conditions where need is most -- assistance is most needed. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. this is mark crumpton. scarlet: exchange rate funds that track emerging-market debt have returned 12% this year while expanding $4.6 billion, a record pace on both fronts as investors chase yields and the threat of rising interest rates is diminishing. we have the bloomberg gadfly.
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let's start with the debt in blue. -- inflow. worse than expected, the idea of a rate increase in the united states. that means the search continues. >> when the cap is away, the mice will play. em debt as well as high-yield bond etf are where they go. we have seen it. every time there is a little concerned there will be a rate hike, they scatter like crazy. right now there is no concern, so they are getting 5% to 6% yield, some cases 4.5%. you can feel for them. they are looking for yield, go to high-yield, emerging-market debt. what i found interesting is how big they are all of a sudden, $60 billion. that is less than 2% of assets, but it is sizable compared to other niche areas. this is a growing area, and
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also if you look at returns, they are incredible. emerging-market debt is up 4% in the past eight years. currencythan em on the side. that is incredible. amanda: if the rate of change in terms of how quickly it is run that catches people off guard. >> we are talking $4 billion this year. hygeminds me again of that maybe four years ago. they did billions of day. gaining on this, very close. they amanda: are going in. the problem is emerging-market debt. investors areough being drawn into investment classes that are not giving them returns but at a cost. the cat'sou say while
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away the mice will play. i will say it is out of the fine pan and into the fire. -- frying pan and into the fire. you are seeing some concern when it comes to the amount of money going into brazil, which has higher than 10% budget deficit. it is the worst recession in decades, does not have a clear-cut plan how to eliminate budgetary issues. they have a 20% rally in brazil's debt this year, despite the backdrop. you have got to wonder at what point will this rush of cash first of all create perverse incentives for countries to borrow more to plug their deficits and become less creditworthy as a result, and if the money comes and quickly, it can go out quickly. >> we are talked about this for seven years. it is the biggest story in finance, what the fed has done, pushing people into places they would not otherwise go. it is dangerous.
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emv is not high-yield, but it is 50%. the duration is high, seven years. if you have interest rate risk, credit risk and political headline risk, it is full of risk. you are talking full percent returns and 5% yields. that is something people are going out to get but have their finger on the trigger right to sell out at the earliest issue for the underlying bonds. competition, russia's debt, argentina, each of those making less than 1.6%. figures to your point of how most of it is high-yield. >> and highly political. political risk is alive and well in emerging markets. people are factoring that in. >> they have to be. lisa's point about brazil, i will say this is the concept of the etf. you are supposed to diversify
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some of that. even though it is oem, brazil is only a portion of that risk. brazil debt alone is better than this as a whole. >> there are issues on the political side, when you have got election cycles, getting contentious. when you have turkey right now. you have to wonder, at what point will something cause investors to withdraw their cash in a sudden way? it is something to look at. >> it tends to be hot money. we see that in the asian crisis. the very size prevents a little instead of the faxes are growing to be big pools of capital. >> you are talking about size like etf? that is the easiest segment. when you look at the mutual fund , they have been dramatic. etf is one segment of these faster flows. the flows are coming from all sides, institutional and retail.
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you hear a lot of recommendations of the white papers of many big asset managers. now is the time to go to yen because rates will not rise. they could be right. at what pointnder will this set up an incentive for these countries to borrow, to plug holes without something of a fundamental problem. that could be a trap later on. eric: you want to err on the side of caution. , but tore down 10% only billion dollars flowed out in a few months. clearly the money is hot, and these things are, people are watching them for the slightest thing. they will get out quickly. we will see. scarlet: we had a chart earlier about emb, which tracks emerging-market debt with emerging-market equity. there it is. eem trialing a little down. going toeing this
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equity markets just as much given the latest leg in the economic cycle. eric: emerging markets are having a good year all year round. keep in mind that chart, a lot of returns are from the strength of the dollar. em has the accuracy risk in it. there has been a lot of flow into local currency, emerging market debt as well. those are going into eem. and now the dollar, they are tied this year. all three, usd and equity, are tied at 12% this year. you think about people going into em, largely because the fed has been away. amanda: these currencies have played a big role in the performances of the markets. you think investors are saturday about the role currencies to play going forward? savvy about the role?
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lisa: they did not have as much of the currency risk embedded in it. people are aware of it. the issue is going forward, if there is a sudden surge or drop in one of these currencies, even the people are prepared, does not mean they will respond. scarlet: thank you very much. amanda: coming up on "bloomberg is the mystery stock of the day. this is a true sunbeam, bouncing to 18 year high. alert shareholders are having a ball. they lit up with 22% gains. ♪
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♪ this is "bloomberg markets." amanda: it is time to go to the markets desk. ramy inocencio has the reveal. it is a true sunbeam with a junior high, sales doubled after adding extra caffeine. alert shareholders are having a at 23% this lights up gain. i have no idea. i think it is a products company. ramy: there are six hints at least. amanda: but no rhyming. is notunbeam, bounce, it a maker of coffee, but it is a maker of coffee makers. kimberly-clark? ramy: let's reveal the name.
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24%, doinge it is up very well if you are in the long , and today is on pace for a high close since 1998. it is up by about 6%. the news coming out that ceo michael pulses they are on their way to delivering 15 million as much as $80 million in terms of cost savings. they will hit the high end of that range. halflooking at the second of august and september, we will see back-to-school season start up in the holiday season. there was one reference thereto lighting up, and that is a reference to yankee candle, because they also owned that company. , theirers are sharpie sharpie pens as well as being alert. amanda: i was trying to piece it all together. there were a couple we got like sunbeam. ramy: so let's take a look and
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see where the revenue breakdown is. biggest piecehe of the pie. the purple is home solutions. third, and then commercial products like sharpie pens 13% or 14%. that is the mystery stock three lots of hints. thank you for writing that amazing prose. amanda: no rhyme. scarlet: extra challenge. time for the bloomberg business flash, some of the biggest stories in the news right now. the biggest deal ever involving beer makers moving closer to him -- completion. approved aas takeover deal for $300 million. it is good to go, being welcomed beva be in the -- ab inv xerox is reporting stronger margins for the outsourcing division.
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they plan to split into two companies by years and. the stock has fallen 5.5% in the past 12 months. canada's gross to mystic product contracted at the fastest pace in more than seven years in may as wildfires curbed oil production in alberta. the economy strength -- shrink 0.6%. the agency says the drop was due to nonconventional oil production drop. that is the bloomberg business flash. amanda: sticking with canada's economy, let's bring in danielle from toronto. canadian stocks pairing a monthly gain for july. is the drop related to that gdp number? what is: gdp and also happening with oil prices. you know how closely these stay together and canada. you have got the situation where we have the wildfires in fort mcmurray in may that had a big
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impact on oil prices, pushed oil prices up obviously but her to the industry because we had so much supply disruption, and so much oil was taken off-line. that was in the gdp, and now you have this situation where gdp is weighing on the gsx. they have come up in the recent our, but weaker oil prices as well playing on the tsx today. scarlet: we have seen oil kind of roll over its recovery from january lows. what is driving that move? was in response to the dollar? reporter: absolutely. the recent was in response to the dollar, but if you look at the longer trend for oil prices since june, they had been down. we are talking about their market territory. going ona few things for a while. there was a little euphoria in the market on expectations that
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the excess supply would be absorbed. we had one off shots. there had been this disruption because of wildfires in canada that i mentioned. and the issue with nigeria, the militants disrupting supply. so you think it would support oil prices. for a while it looked like it would be. but it has not absorbed the glut of supply on the market to the extent that everyone expected. so if you look at a chart that shows that supply glut you can see how dramatic it is. asy are not getting used up effectively. we have about 3 million barrels, a record stockpile among industrialized nations. a glutof that, there is of gasoline. crude prices were so low earlier in the year, refineries started pumping out more gasoline as well. you are being hit on both fronts. brent smith was great on the terminal, but prices are under pressure. amanda: thank you so much.
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♪ amanda: this is "bloomberg markets." have erased prices earlier losses, but the big picture is they have been slipping for the last few months, threatening russia's climb out of recession. vladimir putin is trained to live to the economy. the ruble has moved exports. we have a reporter from morgan stanley. ago, had you told me the russian economy would be in trouble with oil prices collapsing, i would've expected putin to take a more populist
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stunt, he would try to impose more capital control, increase spending, keep people happy. instead he has been sort of going the more classical economic way, focused their he much on fiscal restraint, telling people we need to be prepared for a long time of belt-tightening. the central bank this morning also did not cut interest rates. cuttingnot even like the interest rates get close, he understands his back is to the wall, and he has to play defense . he is doing it relatively well compared to expectations. david: it strikes me from your piece is that russian people can endure pain. is capita japan and russia 14,000 to $8,000. it is an amazing cuts. >> what he has got upsetting that is the entire nationalistic
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fervor. that is keeping him with his popularity rate high. that is the message around the world. leaders that can back this train anti-incumbency, pigeon is doing that. -- present is doing that -- putin is doing that. front, sometic credit for playing good defense -- >> one good thing about turkey, what is it doing? erdogan appeared stronger, but turkey has come out weaker. it is good for the president because it defines his power, but for turkey, it makes it more volatile. they are more dependent on foreign capital, and that is not going to be very pleased with what is happening in turkey.
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a reporterat was from morgan stanley speaking on bloomberg. amanda: investment managers are being run out of town after 25% of stock pickers beat and marks this year. mathematical in their investing or be left behind. we have stuck reporter danny berger and joe weisenthal. so danny in terms of what is happening, it has clearly been a strategy that has worked. is there a bias toward it? start it was a really bad to the year for active management. the worst hit since 2003. looking at what is going on, valuations are high, stock correlations are high. it is a tough environment to be a stock picker. you want to know what is making my returns? stocks.t individual
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people point to factors like style, momentum, low volatility. people are saying, it sounds like that is what is moving my return, and that is not what i am used to. people are having to reevaluate and say, actually this year, it was whether or not i picked the right factors that determines my outcome. the is there anyone making case that active management will come back one day? there seems to be so many factors lining up against it. the ease with which people can viewto etf, the general that has taken over everyone should be indexing. anyone saying they will be back? dani: a few strategists that was volatility comes up again, we will see the dispersion return. but at the end of the day, there are so many people who are looking at quantitative factors that it almost is the responsible to not know what factors you are owning. you say when
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volatility returns, we had that at the beginning of the year. there is a difference between good and bad. what kind of volatility due stock pickers want? dani: it comes down to dispersion. they want stocks to go off to find value stocks that are not value trapped. everything has been bid up so much that a lot of companies see that as a value, they are looking really expensive right now. amanda: not too long ago, people that believe in active management of the active managers. not long ago, a mentally he was heavy into cash. he said -- a man said he was heavy into cash. people look at the markets and say there is no safe place. dani: they are. some people are saying we need to figure out this squad thing. what factories the returns are going to come from. squads have athe
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lot of lower exposure to the market right now. they are not invincible. joe: some people might argue you can't really time factors anyway. even if you know to say, momentum is working or quality is working right now, these are not strategies you can jump in and out of. scarlet: great conversation. danny berger, confined her on bloomberg.com -- you can find her on bloomberg.com. speaking of, the spanking stress tests. -- banking stress tests. ♪
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david: we are live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york covering stories out of san francisco, london, and tokyo. the s&p hit a record earlier today but backed off its highs. gdp disappoints. we are looking at markets reacting and the economy. economists some top go off on the latest boj stimulus with a bare minimum. if the central bank is running out of options? acceptinglary clinton her nomination. what she and donald trump are honing in on. but the debates begin. in two minutes. let's go to ramy inocencio. ramy: right now looking at where the markets are, we are heading back to session highs. i have to say volume really has not been all that.
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