tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg July 29, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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we are live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york. over the next hour, stories out of dallas, london, and beijing. the s&p 500 hit an all-time high. markets are poised before the close. what is driving them higher? the best earning season since 2008 read amazon on pace to close at an all-time high. chief: cities global economist and what he has to say about the state of the u.s. economy. david: let's head to the markets desk, where ramy inocencio is standing by. amy: pushing the markets up little bit higher. it has been pretty volatile and still trading in a fairly narrow
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band of volumes also down across the 20 day moving average. this is where we are. they have not changed much throughout the course of the last 3, 4, 5 hours. the dow on the negative side of the flat line. see u.s. gdpd numbers for second quarter, in less than expected, 1.2% versus 2.5%. we are seeing that reflected in the s&p over the last trading session. camethat u.s. gdp number out, you can see the s&p dipped around the 9:30, 10:00 a.m. mark. a little past noon, we saw this hit an intraday record. now we are just about four points off of that. we can see volatility, earnings taking hold.
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let's take a look at what has been happening in terms of two of the biggest lists on the s&p, those are in the tech sector. alphabet and google up by 4%. it crushed estimates for the second quarter in terms of profit and revenue. ad revenue went gangbusters, $19.1 billion in the second quarter. the most ever since it started reporting. amazon.com of 7 /10 of 1%. revenue from its cloud service growing by about 58% to $2.9 billion. there are positives and also negatives. let's look at the negatives. .ummer -- cbs down 3% here revenue coming from showtime, licensing from star trek deals. that movie just came out. go see it, i'm a fan.
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expedia down by 2.7%. by the recent terror attacks we have been reporting. travel to france -- france down year on year and wynn resorts down by nearly 7%. a are opening a $4 billion casino to get half of their sales as well as profits from macau, but they are not getting as many gambling tables as they expected for that resort. vonnie: outside of individual stocks, the gdp data made a difference this morning. >> let's take a look at what is been happening. the dollar basically down near session lows, 1.4%, 1.3%. after that u.s. gdp data did come in. it had been positive for the month but because of what we are seeing today, it's down for the month. yield -- it'ss.
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u.s. gdpn because of data. traders pushing into treasuries right now, a little pessimistic as we head into the close. 1.46%, and that is its lowest so.d july 11 or david: let's get a check of the headlines. "the wall street journal san diego -- --k: san diego police have one police officer dead and another seriously wounded. a police officer earlier used a bullhorn to urge a man to leave the house and police detonated several loud devices. the standoff began hours after a traffic stop by anti-gang officers the lead to a shootout. in michigan six more state employees are facing criminal charges in connection with flints water crisis. charges include misconduct in office, willful neglect of duty and various conspiracy counts. in april, 2 state regulators and
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a city employee were charged with official misconduct, evidence tampering, and other offenses. four have been suspended without pay. the united nations is suspending aid to northern nigeria. the reason, a threat from the terror group boko haram, who recently attacked a convoy, wounding 2 eight workers. more than 500,000 people in the area are living under what the u.n. calls catastrophic conditions. the olympic committees 10 member refugee team has arrived in rio de janeiro. they will parade under the neutral olympic flag in the opening and closing ceremonies. it's the first time the ioc organized -- for athletes living under refugee status. genetic estate ordered testing for a handful of people claiming to be the late musicians heirs. the judge tossed out claims made by nearly 30 others.
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people was ordered for 4 who claim to be siblings or half siblings plus a possible niece and grand-niece. prince died in april of a drug overdose with no known children or will. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david, please tell ramy it's all about jason bourne and not star trek. let's get back to the u.s. equity markets. the s&p 500 added for a fifth inaight monthly gain, up 5% july. disappointing gdp data weighing on the market today. can we expect more gains in august? joining us this a chief investment officer at state street global advisors. let's start with those gdp numbers. we had the executive editor of bloomberg's economics coverage a few minutes ago talking about
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how grave that number is. how do you interpret that? >> i have been describing this environment for a while as growth purgatory. i think we remain in growth purgatory if historical rates of growth -- if that's your nirvana, we can't seem to get there. flipside is that permanently quiddity provided by central banks such as the federal reserve is preventing us from getting to a recession. what we are left with is growth underory, where stock and whelming growth, accommodative monetary policy, low rates, low inflation. like our viewers, in the chart library, 2386 is the number. we saw the vanguard was underperforming the s&p in the it is suddenly
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outperforming, it's now tracking the s&p. what happens next for dividend growth stock? >> certainly valuations for yield rate right now, for anything that has a yield above , which is getting harder and harder to find, folks are paying a premium for. dividend growing stocks are a bit ahead of themselves from that perspective. what we are seeing is that in this environment, our expectations going forward that more of your total return is likely to come from income. capital appreciation will be hard to come by in growth purgatory. as a result, we think having dividend growers in a diversified or if is very important. for example, utilities and staples and those as we know because their yields have been so high, folks are willing to pay almost any price for them. my view is a broader, more
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ofersified portfolio dividend growing stocks that includes things like industrials or financials. better the economy does than it were anticipating, those will grow along with them. you still get the income from the dividend. something like you mentioned ,anguard, we offer the sdy which is the aristocrats methodology. david: little dueling bloombergs here. the price to forward earnings ratio, hitting a level we haven't seen since back in 2000, near one standard deviation. we are looking at how much people are paying for what they expect to get next year. what do you get from that number? rallying ont is three great hopes and they are all interrelated great one is the hope the monetary policy will finally work and boost consumption and business fixed investment. the secondote in
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one, this will show up in better economic growth figures like the gdp. we are getting mixed signals from both of those things. lastly that those higher rates of economic growth will lead to higher corporate profits. what is happening right now is investors are paying up on the hopes that those things will come to fruition and they are willing to pay a higher multiple. i'm not so sure those hopes will be realized great francis bacon once said hope is a good breakfast what a lousy supper. as the year goes on, investors could be disappointed. vonnie: where are we in the cycle? do we see some sort of correction? we are in a bear market again for oil. >> it's interesting, as we see that oil has rebounded in the market seems to be a little bit relieved that oil is coming off a bit of a low. as you mention, down for the month. the s&p 500, at least from my perspective, we'll get you the
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dividends, around 2% or so, plus whatever earnings per share growth is able to generate, --compared touple its long-term averages, returns will be lower but certainly positive, at least from my perspective. my guess is that likely been in , we arenext few years still in this directionless, listless market. we've had a nice run here. it wouldn't surprise me if we see it straight back a bit in august and/or september. david: how worried are you about global risk right now? are you worried about risks overseas? i think geopolitical risk has been front and center from a news perspective read him not as worried about brexit, which is one of those classic rumsfeld examples.
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this was a known unknown, for example. we knew what the result might be and what the implications might be from it. this doesn't scare me. the u.k. economy i don't think is able to have a contagion for the global economy. what i'm more worried about is china. devalue,een the yuan the credit expansion continues to grow. that is an economy that has a real impact on the global economy. used to be page one, back in august and january, and now it's on page 10. in the coming months if the trend continues, you can see something like china back on page 10. the baconnks for quotation. chief investment strategist at state street global advisors joining us from boston. vonnie: coming up, how the cloud
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david: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm david gura. vonnie: i'm vonnie quinn. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. hershey trust, the $12 billion charity that controls the hershey chocolate company, is reforming its management practices. trust, which has faced allegations of lavish spending by board members, agreed to the term limits. members calls for three of the trusts board to resign by
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the end of the year. will notnator redstone be able to avoid a lawsuit challenging his removal of directors from the board of viacom. the judge ruled the case can go scheduledth the trial for october. redstone seeking to assert control over his $40 billion empire by rearranging fight comes management and removing two trustees from the family trust that will control the company. vonnie: private equity firms apollo andkr, carlyle group are considering a buyout of hewlett-packard enterprise. the deal could be worth more than $40 billion. that is your bloomberg business flash update. david: technology shares are having their best earning season since 2008, since reporting period began july 11. the group has jumped more than
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5%. tech is getting a lot of help from alphabet and amazon. joining us is bloombergs cory johnson from san francisco in new york. curious about the degree to which this is about cloud computing. company that did so well this week are facebook, alphabet, and amazon. all those companies have a couple interesting things in common, one of which is their physical structure. all have giant, largely white box created server firms that run their businesses. they are very big as this is but they run the business with many employees. they sort of operate a cloud of their own and content networks of their own. it's interesting to look at the
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chart we put up earlier about these records. the earnings back then were about a company that sold stuff. technology companies made stuff and sold it to every company under the sun. more and more technology is incorporated and more and more business. selling lots of computers, and fiscal. every company had to have their own database infrastructure and their own database. now you see this stuff turning to amazon and the cloud and you see the consumption of internet technology. a certain extent, they are not even in competition with each other. a second.mazon for what is the next income chain for amazon? the eventual goal is to be the retailer for everything. cory: it is going about a 56% annual clip right now.
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the profitability, they almost can't make it unprofitable. they are adding more and more services onto the platform. there's a lot of stuff custom written to amazon's code. microsoft saying they have great success with her work. so much business is on amazon. more business comes to amazon. david: another chart on bloomberg, you are looking at the turnaround on earnings. from december 30 1, 2015 to june 30, new technology is a laggard there. since then, from the beginning of this earning season, the 11th of july through the 28th, up about 6%. facebook. you about
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another amazing quarter when you look at advertising revenues. facebook has found a way to monetize mobile particularly well. cory: the conversion rate -- more people use facebook more often play your daily active users compared to monthly active users, is to be about 40%. it is 66%. most users for the last year have been on mobile and mobile only. you have the majority of facebook users outside of this country, on their mobile device, on facebook every day. it's amazing. see advertisers figure out how to market to them, the ads might not be as valuable as google's, because a searcher is showing direct intent. as facebook starts to higher around artificial intelligence and a lot of data mining, uses the customers they get in aggregate ways.
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facebook withon an app. it's powerful data collection and offering if they can get the numbers that can truly divine user intent. that's the advantage google has over facebook. cory, thank you very much. that is corey johnson joining us. vonnie: the biggest steelmaker has its best quarter in years. it has weathered a price war with china. options insight is next. ♪
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bull's-eye option and he joins me from the cboe in chicago. we are seeing mixed markets, trading volume just low. theers staying on sidelines, got a push and pull between earnings and the fed. you think this is a new normal we will be seeing for the rest of the summer? we have some are sideways sessions. we did make new highs. a week and a half ago. it's been so long. we have been trading sideways between that peak and 2116. things have stalled waiting for the next catalyst, and you can see now there's a lot of earnings this week that kind of drove the fundamentals. we will see where we go from here. david: we are talking about steel right now. i want to talk about the s&p industrials sector, year to date it is up something like 9%. versussed estimates 1.2% 2.5%, you think that calls for
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concern? the gdp is backward looking. markets look forward. the big input right now is the dollar. recently we were at the highest level in u.s. dollars that we have been since march. see at happens you can lot of these commodities, stocks rebound one more time. they had stalled out with recent dollar strength but that could give oil a boost and that's what's holding the market down, we have the oil market at the $42 level, halfway point of this action we've seen in 2016. that can stabilize and give the whole market a bump in macro terms. on -- you are focusing in year today i believe it's up 100%. that's pretty amazing for folks in the long. what do you want to do with it? >> the same kind of place, mental momentum plays. u.s. steel is up 240% so far
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this year. it was the six dollars stock and it has rallied at 47. if you look at mt, trading between four dollars and six dollars for most of the last six months. six,his breakout above a give this some momentum, looking to get to the near-term targets eight dollars, and a halfway mark of the selloff is $10. we still have a lot of upside left. david: thank you very much. david and vonnie, back to you. david: still ahead, "what'd you miss?" is coming up. we will hear from citigroup's global chief economist why we are not on the brink of a collapse. this is bloomberg. ♪
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fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. trump's running mate says the ticket might lift its ban of certain media outlets. indiana governor mike pence says the campaign will evaluate its there will bet available to the media whether they are "fair or unfair." an attorney for u.s. senator bob menendez of new jersey says he will ask the third u.s. circuit court of appeals to review a ruling allowing the corruption case against menendez to move forward. earlier today a federal appeals court refused to dismiss corruption charges against the democrat. menendez has pleaded not guilty to bribery and fraud charges. the charity save the children a hospital it supports in northern syria has been bombed with two people reportedly killed.
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the syrian observatory for human rights is reporting that airstrikes hit the hospital as well as the center for first responders in a rural village. andhospital opened in 2014 has an on-call pediatrician and six incubators for premature babies. turkey is escalating its crackdown following the attempted coup earlier this month. president erdogan's government has canceled 50,000 passports. thousands of soldiers, bureaucrats, and academics. hillary clinton's acceptance speech last night for the democratic presidential nomination drew 27.8 million tv viewers to the six million dollars, fewer than the 30 million who tuned in last week to see donald trump accept the republican nomination. cnn let the networks with 7.5 million viewers. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i and mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. amanda: markets close in 30 minutes. we will check in with abigail too little. abigail: on the last day of july we are at lackluster trading. the next is up .1%, fluctuating between small gains and losses. but on the month it has been a great month for the nasdaq, 6.5% for the best month since march. at least 2 important things did happen during the month of july. nasdaq reclaimed the psychologically important level of 5000 good second and probably more important, the nasdaq turned positive on the year. when we go into the bloomberg, we are left with the odd tension that the nasdaq is still below the record high. the record% below high can even as the s&p 500 have carved out new record highs this month.
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a little bit odd to have the growth of nasdaq lacking. as for the strength this month, it is all about technology. apple, microsoft, alphabet, and facebook. first byst point a slim margin over microsoft was apple. up -- actually come i'm not sure of the exact percentage of apple but he was a huge reversal considering that the stock entered the month of 1% after the june quarter report on tuesday. better-than-expected earnings, sales, iphone units. they guided september quarter better. the interesting thing here is that even though we had the better-than-expected quarterly report, the figures represent year-over-year declines, and when we go into bloomberg here, we have an interesting chart that showed apple revenues, the percentage change over the years, inst 20, 25 the stock price, we have seen how dramatic the decline in
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revenue has been the past two quarters. when you look at past declines, we see lots of volatility. we have the stock climbing higher, perhaps in anticipation of a potential return to growth in 2017. we will have to see. amanda: talking about tech names that are big winners on the month, anyone stand out? .bigail: facebook, for sure of about 10% on the month. they did beat all metrics across the board. what does stand out is that facebook, while trading and having put in a record high of the report, is somewhat off the highs, suggesting that the bar is climbing higher and higher for facebook to keep performing at these really tremendous levels in the future. it will be up to ceo mark zuckerberg and his team to keep delivering. amanda: abigail doolittle from the nasdaq, thank you. joe: all right, as the share global gdp, chinese exports are
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as big as they have ever been. gdp,share of chinese own the share of exports is on the decline. what does this say about the country's efforts to rebalance its economy away from exports and manufacturing? ser, with us is brad set council on foreign relations senior fellow good what can we glean about what china is doing domestically? brad: if you measure chinese export growth, it has slowed relative to the world economy, and chinese exports have fallen somewhat as a share of china's economy. focusing only on the experts moreports side misses than halve the story because chinese imports are falling significantly and all kinds are falling relative to china's own gdp. manufacturing imports, commodity
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imports. the growth in good import volume -- just looking at goods come over the past four years, imports have grown in real terms at about half the pace of the chinese economy. a little bit unusual. amanda: what does that say about china's ability to achieve the kind of balance it is seeking? can china achieve a soft landing? brad: in some ways it is helping china achieve a soft landing because much of the drag from the slowdown in china's investment is being absorbed by the rest of the world. what i think it does highlight is the rebalance away from investment towards consumption on its own could be a little bit of a bigger global drag than people thought. when china imports, it tends to import more investment goods. when china consumes, it tends to consume --
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team wroteu on your an interesting article showing that the imports are coming from places like sunil and the bahamas, things typically china doesn't import from. joe: we see these searches of countries and people are like, are those real imports, or are those disguised as imports? what you see as the outflow situation? is it just migrating to data that looks different? brad: there is a lot of data that looks different. those numbers are huge as a percentage change. they are not that big economically. the big outflow economically are the tourism data, not been trade with american samoa. even if you make this kind of adjustments, the pace of outflows has slowed compared to january and february. what we's go back to
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talked about before with the changing nature of chinese imports. what is that say for emerging markets? we have seen this renewal of emerging markets for 2016, optimism for emerging markets. part of the cases that chinese data has stabilized. but if it is different kind of consumption, is that a risk that is hanging out there for these countries? brad: i think that is a risk because the stabilization we observed mirrors the civilization with chinese import data. it is hard to discuss trends and changes. while the import data broadly speaking has been weak over several years, it was a pretty early this year -- pick up earlier this year that has helped emerging economies. you saw the pickup and commodity prices. at the impact of china's credit stimulus fades, there could be additional headwinds. amanda: the devaluation of the currency there is putting quasi deflationary pressure.
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how lucky expect the deflationary pressure from china -- how long do you expect the deflationary pressure from china to be part of the global picture? brad: quite a long time. on its own, a rebalancing away from investment towards consumption tends to lower chinese demand for the rest of the world's goods. until china can really convincingly demonstrate that it has a strong domestic growth engine, and the strong domestic growth engine can lead to our return to currency appreciation, you will see deflationary pressure. import prices from china are coming down. d all of this is the story of capital outflows from which we have been following since the start of 2015. how has it changed over the period? institutions, what people? who is doing it now? brad: there is sort of an ongoing move of domestic chinese, wealthy chinese,
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abroad. that has been fairly constant, in my view. it is a study outflow on a significant, study outflow. one that, broadly speaking, is supported by the large trade surplus. when you have the concern that d when itit to a perio was a sudden shift in expectations and a significant move in corporate chinese foreign, hedging for currency debt, prepayment of foreign-currency debt, positioning further revenues. joe: brad, we are coming up on the one-year anniversary of the august evaluation the cause ripple effects in the global markets. there was the view that there was a weird policy error, it was a hasty move. what have we learned about chinese policy since then? has anything gotten better or more predictable? brad: i think what we learned is that china actually believe its
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currency had appreciated too much last summer. it wanted a weaker currency. nwo what we suggest now what we see is that china has achieved a meaningful -- now what we see is that china has achieved a meaningful depreciation, the question going forward, whether or not the balance between the depreciation that has occurred and the stimulus that has happened is going to be appropriate for china's economy. amanda: thank you for being here, brad. council on foreign relations senior fellow. scarlet: coming up, citigroup global chief economist says never believe the numbers. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. time for the bloomberg business flash, the biggest business story in the news right now. the biggest deal ever between beer makers is closer to completion. approvede's board has the takeover, a deal that is being welcomed by ab inbev. exxon mobil posting the smallest profit since 1999. the world's biggest oil explorer says wildfires have ravaged the sense of western canada. lost $5.6and gas million a day during the quarter. as $3.6uld pay as much billion. sinclair broadcast group has settled the case with the fcc
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and will pay a fine. the matters involved include content broadcasts and technical issues related to local marketing. the sbc will issued license renewals. therapist all is -- ever" is 30 additional stores including locations in san francisco, myrtle beach south carolina, and nashville. the rich ellerson will ask the judge overseeing bankruptcy -- the retailer will ask the judge overseeing bankruptcy to cancel leases. that is your business flash update. amanda: the was economy rose less than forecast -- the u.s. economy rose less than forecast during the quarter. the underlying domestically generated growth in the u.s. is weakening of it, mainly because
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of electoral uncertainty. but it is not collapsing. we should expect growth somewhere below 2%. the u.s. is not going to be dragging the world into a growth recession. that happens elsewhere in europe and possibly in china. >> it is not in the sense of a trend. if you go back to the fourth quarter of 2015 -- willem: i think it is slowing down to somewhere below 2%. we still are probably on that. it may come down a bit but it is not anything to really at this growth national income data and see -- >> more data is trickling out from the eco-data we got. inventories subtracted about 1.16 percentage point from the second quarter gdp. this has been a big issue. it fell $8 billion in the second
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quarter, the biggest fall since the third quarter of 2011. if the demand picks up, right? willem: this is clearly not a plan, inventory dt relation. -- de-a few militia. to the extent that it is currently measured, big question mark, it is a surprise and we will most likely see a correction. you always hope when you have a big drop in quarterly gdp that inventories count for the last part of it because then you are most likely -- unless you are really in a downward spiral, which the u.s. is not. i know i am somewhat gloomy but not ready to jump out of any windows. >> looking forward, in your experience as an economist over several decades, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty. we said that near-term visibility is zero, there ain't none right now.
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how difficult is it for a business to operate in this environment? willem: extremely difficult. there was a presidential -- going on, and if one candidate gets elected, there is certainty of global trade war. do you invest in this environment? no, you hold off. i spoke this to be reflected in data---- expect this to be reflected in capex data. alix: when you look at longer-term growth maybe not being as strong in the last three quarters as they thought? willem: again, never believe the gdp data. this is key. to the extent that it contains information, it is even more cautious and less likely to raise rates this year and beyond. clearly there is a warning to
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the fed that the economy is probably not as strong as they thought or hoped it might be. the implications for policy are obvious -- do less and do it well. >> when you put your dashboard together, what are the critical numbers? pmi data, filtered payroll data. they are more interesting and productive -- predictive. confidence data, household and business. for the rest, you talk a lot to your cabbie. [laughter] and will take you from citi put you on the fomc. is the biggest challenge the best way of communicating doing nothing without making that a negative thing? willem: i think the fed should
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stop paying attention to much to the short-term response of markets or whatever they do. the fed more than any central-bank unfortunately appears to be a captive of the financial markets. they used to respond, i think excessively, to what financial markets did. put, alan bernanke put. now they don't act in fear of the markets. the market will do what it does. when you want to do is think about your target, think about -- do a model of how the economy works, including the financial markets, and then do when you think is the proper action and let the market for themselves out. joe: that was citigroup global chief economist with the "bloomberg go" team this morning. scarlet: coming up, quite a rough quarter. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: we have some breaking news here -- the italian treasury, basically the government, and the european commission worked together to identify a range of options on state aid in the financial sector. however, there is no need for an intervention. there is no public backstop needed for monte paschi. needed for the troubled bank. we are expecting the results of the italian stress tests and how they fare will be a great concern. i have a chart that says the credit market is not overly stressed in anticipation of the result. this chart shows a spread with the financial indexes. it is a way to measure investor sentiment and it is currently now what 112 basis points.
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versus 142 after the brexit vote. to bevel of anxiety seems lower participating for now. we will see what happens after the stress test results come out. interesting. joe: i'm a talk about this story that has been going on the last few weeks, and that is the decline of oil. there is data coming out showing why oil has not been doing well, and one of the data points we are watching is great counts -- rig counts in the u.s. picking up again. that line, five straight weeks of increases. nicelynteresting how that conforms with the decline in oil, which is the -- which is the blue line. declining since late may, early june, fairly significantly. we talk about inventories, gas inventories, rig counts, and new convergence of bad news for oil
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prices. amanda: backing off that level. we are seeing the price of oil quarter, andrice, inside my terminal, exxon mobil reporting its weakest profits since 1999. this is the seasonably week quarter for income. generally lower than the first quarter, to be fair. the blue line as revenue and the white line internet income. the majors have had to get across in line to the weaker price of oil. they know it is your, they know it is going to stay, roughly. we are seeing a decline in profit. that is on the margin basis very bad news. oil and natural gas but they also have refineries. joe: remarkable round-trip there. amanda: refineries are rough. scarlet: with oil prices lower again, where is the recovery? amanda: you have to throw in the
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alberta wildfires, which hurt exxon mobil as well. perfect storm quarter for exxon in this one. scarlet: we will keep an eye on all these energy company's along with the upcoming result of the european bank stress tests, out of the top of the next hour. that does it for "bloomberg markets." "what'd you miss" and the market closes up next. s&p 500 with a new intraday high. right now you have got the dow industrials up marginally by .1%. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: most u.s. stocks closing higher this afternoon with the s&p 500 reaching an all-time high. joe: the question is! "what'd you miss?" scarlet: we break out the market action by asset class. joe: plus, european bank stress tests results in moments. amanda: and u.s. gdp disappoints . we have the three charts you can't miss from today's economic report. scarlet: we begin with our market minute. the s&p 500 making another intraday high. the dow jones industrial average couldn't quite get there, falling just marginally, off-white .1%, or 26 points. in terms of the monthly superlatives, fifth straight month of gains for u.s. stocks. this comes after data for the second quarter sd
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