tv Asia Edge Bloomberg July 31, 2016 11:00pm-12:01am EDT
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hour the yen falls the most in two months. economy ishina's losing momentum. don't underestimate the of a hike rate this year. preparing to sell assets rating ts credit above junk. warnings of brexit and weak gloomy nt mean a outlook for commodities. forum.morton diggers >> i'm keeping my eye on the markets. just on that point, dollar.y a weak that's what we're seeing. commodity prices, let's see lasts.g this managing to shake off a quiet and rusty start. midpoint over today's session, as you can see, equities are mostly pointing with the exception of the chinese mainland. reversing all of its losses, high by 1%.
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opens up for the afternoon time.minutes there.arta, up 2% i think that mark is pacing the region. happening.ly team, but sing the survey actually beat estimates. let's bring in our china correspondent. he has the story out of us.jing for us,t do the numbers tell the official numbers? >> there is a divergent, but the survey came in at 49.9 for july. a forecast of 50. that's the first sub 50 reading we've had since february. of course, it casts doubt on the durability of the economic stabilization that we've seen in china over the few months.
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it suggests that the debt fuel growth rebound may be losing steam. we dig into the numbers, there are some interesting details that stand out like down.rders were output was down. employment edged up, and we have seen the employment slightly lower in the last few months. trend has been to cap or cut wages. there is also interesting ivergence as well between large enterprises, so often state owned enterprises that firmly in an expanse-airy phase. expanding tobe shift the gravity away from the s.o.e. sector hasturing in the last few months benefitted from the strength and e property market state-led investment. in above those forecasts, and that was largely down to the sector, but of
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ourse, but better than expected. it's down to what the policy action is and what they are to see from policymakers here in china. get any expect to numbers?hese >> if you're looking for analysts, they say the tipping s now at a point and the trend is downward for growth. they also say the government worried about bubbles, so monetary conditions are more ikely to be on the tight side. if we look at what bloomberg saying,elligence are they say they have limited pace, and their effectiveness will be constrained. bloomberg intelligence xpects the existing stimulus will be maintained and they say we should also xpect more support from state sponsored investment also from the weaker.
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country's most akeover hungry groups is scaling back its buying spree. assets from up club med to circus soleil over the past few years and getting d on leaner. eidi sat down with china's largest conglomerate last week. knowing to be the most now we see but this kind of reversal? >> in a year it's turning to be a bounty year. they are actually going against the tide. $15 billion worth of deals announced since 2011.r we're really seeing them unwine. $6 y are saying up to billion of asset disposals
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are up for grabs. details as to what or when, they have said e'll be getting more details but when i spoke to he c.e.o., he said all of about that is investment great rating. the otches below threshold. the s&ps, getting that rate will help their insurance business in particular. conglomerate that largely bases its model on hathaway, to invest in new businesses and itsainly improvement in credit rating would go a long way there. i spoke to the c.e.o. and he essentially this is a company that's going from being a buyer of assets over years to ew becoming a seller. >> on consolidated balance about $30 to
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40 billion in assets that sold.e if the market conditions are good, we can sell. to sell.ling >> the c.e.o. is very frank about the company's high debt, increased almost 70% last year. if you look to debt to equity ratio they have more to equity, compare that to berkshire which emulates closely their debt is at 33%. a lot of work to do. the question is what will be block.chopping what assets will they get rid of? o details but you can deduct from their investment, they call it wealth, health and happiness. pharmaceuticals and falls are, what outside? only of the old economy assets. are actually the traditional pillars in growth when they first started up the company. first listed in profitables most business but that's changed
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along the rebalancing of the chinese economy. >> traditionally they are being quite aggressive when it comes to developing markets, the europe.k and did the brexit referendum change your positioning? >> they are one of the up anies that's picked trophy assets and developed markets. circus soleil med.lub they see further opportunities because a lot of people will ben couraged can't out, those who handle the volatility will get out and that will open base for more investment opportunities. they are being very careful to manage that very well. he has a word of warning for any company that thinks not brexit xposure to may also mean not having any that downside volatility.
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>> i think volatility will and become more unpredictable. the best solution to risk is be completely globalized. >> it's worth noting they ave been looking more towards 'em s as well.m. they will be agreeing to buy the pharmaceutical company n india as part of the healthcare segment that they have been focusing on as well. asian targeting this population in china, the vacuum that's being left by healthcare d system and also part of the pharmaceutical trend in china to bring the and the assets into the chinese economy as well. end goal, , the they want to become a billion dollar market value company.
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>> playstation division, investors are now focusing n user growth ahead of the october launch of sony's vr headsets. havepore central banks been investigating a gsa' unit involvement with bond malaysia's vest fund. the monetary authority statement promising any ive action against institution or individual nvolved in anti-money laundering. the maf named four banks accused of serious lapses in money laundering control and in ed $177 million assets linked. chinese investors are agreed to $4.4 billion deal to buy n online games unit from caesar's entertainment.
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it makes casino-style games for aps, like facebook, virtual currency instead of real money and it will be taken over by a by shanghai giant network technology which ncludes a private equity fund founded by jack ma. coming up later on this bets. lays your getting set to release gaming revenue numbers and receive further signs of a rebound? we'll hear from one of the regulators, we'll ask our next guest while he sees uk negatives in the decision to leave the e.u. we'll hear from the deputy anaging director john lipsky just ahead. this is bloomberg.
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>> they have discussed ways to boost the global economy. dave has been tracking all of this for us. latest?he dave: do we throw money at the problem? hat's what eve been seeing from central banks. it's loose fiscal policy, people have been talking about. to some of these lines out, out of bali. the president, several things. dollar strength, he's ommenting here on the strength of the u.s. dollar. he says it's created some challenges for exporters. would you imagine he's talking about u.s. exporters. as far as the global view is oncerned, he says the fed now has to consider two things. they don't want a repeat of may happened in 2013, 22, to be exact there. forme chairman ben bernanke came out. happenn't want it to again. second, if they have to consider what's happening outside the u.s., and on he's basically
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saying, while they are very achievingsays, to both employment and inflation objectives in the u.s., what's happening exactly s not ideal. demand has been far -- has slowly.owing very the recovery from the global crisis has been rather disappointing. seeing that e play out right now when you look at what's happening across currency in the especially emerging markets. there is a lot of money out of the dollar back into the -- a look, ean, have have a look at the peso. what the markets are seeing, given the gdp report that we saw on friday, we're going to be looking at lower rates for longer. dollar index, there is your massive drop. steady een kept because of the drop in the japanese yen. ave a look at 10 year yields 1. .5% on the u.s. 10 year. on that note here, from he said, don't
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underestimate the probability that the fed can rates.y raise we're looking at three more meetings. have a look at the function, wirp, we have a graphic. markets are basically -- to happen ing this year. these are based on fund futures. little different when you look at uber swabs. you see the dip, at the very that's a dip following the disappointing gpd numbers. with of it had to do inventories. basically below 15% for the if lihood of the fed -- it does manage get the rate hike out the door come september. meetings. you look at how it's flattening and look at the currencies. does have a point. don't underestimate that it may happen. thank you so much. given the latest line there, markets, at the from the recovered
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shock of brexit, inside the e.u. they continue to threaten. joining us from the diggers forum, john limitssky, the ing director at imf. great to have you here on the program. go back to those breaking we saw coming out of dudley. he was talking about to not underestimate whether the fed can actually raise rates this year. oryou see a similar view view? share a similar >> well, of course, nbalanced despite the weak second quarter view? >>data. -- do you have some water here. >> yeah. >> okay. here we go. despite the weak second quarter figures, 4.9%.oyment is at
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growth is expected to be 2%, between 2% and 3%, and the inflation rate towards their 2% target. so under normal circumstances, it would be would be hat they tightening as long as the economy continues to grow. yeah.'s -- >> the dollar has been creeping up, and over the year, yeah, go ahead. >> i just wanted to say -- to s give you a chance catch up and catch your breath. --mr. dudley >> we're going to head to a break and talk more later. we'll give you a chance to a little bred bit. stay with us, we'll come back to you soon. corporate earnings set for another quarter of declines. we'll look at those factors could be hurting growth. stay with us. this is bloomberg.
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>> we can hear our conversation now with the imf.er director at the joining us. glad that you're able to again. once talking about your speech here at the forum, you painted more of a moderate growth outlook for the global economy, and you're seeing again. lot ng that there are a of downsize risks. are we getting a sense that recognizing the restk when it comes to this reject of globalization, his sentiment here that could potentially harm the economic -- the economy and big to a lot of consequences? >> well, of course. let's take global trade. probably know, for most of the post second world war ii era, trade has persistently much gdp.er than since the crisis, it's grown
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slowly and in the date 2012, trade continues to grow more slowly than overall output. trade has turned into a drag a boost. and with the problems looking forward, with -- by brexit and the need for the uk to renegotiate trade deals the u.s. from in the both political candidates to immediate passage of the tpp, transpacific partnership, the likely tip agreement between the u.s. and europe, it's hard right now to be about trade turning around. one of that's been the benchmarks of the growth in the most recent decades. mean, you talked about the u.s. election a little bit. is there a little bit of market underpricing as the risk that we could see with a potential victory from the
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candidate donald trump? e see him talking about withdrawing from the wtl. the u.s. will not defend unless they pay, alling nafta one of the worst trade deals ever. >> well, let's just say, of statements only add to uncertainty, at there are which lots of reasons for uncertainty. the e come, i think, important point. the most notable weakness in the global economy, and in advanced economies, has not been the weakness in consumer demand weakness in business investment and here certainly one of the uncertainty s about policy and about regimelike the trade going forward, can't be boosting economy and boosting investment that s the major source of weakness in global growth.
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> more so now, putting a step of emphasis on fiscal and structural policies, the how likely are we going to see some type of inclusive economic expansion or fresh action? we've seen the likes of uk taking these steps, germany in particular. particular. >> well, first, it's clear that monetary decisive won't way or the one other in the coming quarters. you can see the fed is very oncerned about creating another kind of, as you pointed out earlier, may 22 environment, but no one thinks or believes that monetary action is going to big impact in the outlook. secondly, fiscal policy, no one planning substantial fiscal stimulus at this time. in the or example, g-20 finance minister's
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and a just a week focus on the struck structural performance. in the near term the most mportant thing that the authorities can do is to create greater confidence in erms of the coherent, consistency and stability policy in the coming an effort to encourage an environment for business investment, for in general that should be very positive given low interest rates, prices and ergy commodity prices, et cetera. f course, the decline in commodity price has inhibited investment, but more broadly especially for thisdvanced economies, should be a positive environment for investment, and one of the reasons is, it's not -- is uncertainty about the outlook for policies generally. hence, the importance of the g-20 leader summit coming up 3, 4, and 5, in
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china. if they can demonstrate some coherence, maybe it will be helpful. look ahead to that. thank you so much. insights, your and talking about the global economy as well as the u.s. election and the outlook for prices.y joining us from the forum, lipsky, former of the directing imf. global corporate earnings, on prices dragging profits as we've just been talking about with john lipsky. here in asia it seems like the earnings season is also hit.ng a >> absolutely. if you look at the statistics, asia is doing europe and the u.s. so far. we've got a full-screen that shows so far 294 conditions, on the asia pacific index reported earnings. earnings down 19%, compared
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a 14% plunge in europe. 2/3 of the companies in the have also ex reported earnings down 3.3%. interestingly, if you strip results of the energy companies, earnings actually 1.1%, not just the oil price but brexit and the tip global economy. >> we've seen facebook, beat the money in analysts' eyes. >> sonny really beating the streak. was actually down but it doubled its operating income in the june quarter. and the japanese maker, it estimates nalyst for the third quarter. there are a few bright spots. beth of these companies have outperforming some of their other peers. >> thank you so much with that wrap-up. we'll look forward to the afternoon's business in tokyo coming up. latest on the the reopen after the break. as we do see here a big
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>> top stories this hour, asia shares are climbing and one-year high. u.s. interest rate increases yielding assets. mixed.e shares are some ground has been regained after july saw its biggest monthly decline of the year. data on chinese manufacturing in july has left analysts scratching their heads. the pmi fell to 49.9, jumped tog survey its highest since february of last year. both gauges at least suggest ittle significant eterioration in china's
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important manufacturing sector. higher in hong kong after it up toed plans to sell $6 billion in asset trying to raise its credit rating above junk. a reversal after $15 billion in overseas purchases this decade. c.e.o. told bloomberg the company had ample capability to reach an rating.nt-grade global news, 24 hours a day, owered by more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. for the latest, let's go to dave. dave? dave: absolutely. despite the weather that we're seeing, of course, you little bit behind me, of course, a little foggy there, typhoon coming. a very good day. shaped up. have a look at this, with of the ption shanghai composite, we're seeing gains across the region. shake off a fairly rusty start, even japan, which is getting for the afternoon
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session. >> 1.2% at one point. of 1%.ow up .4 new zealand flat. ne of the better performers, new zealand. merging markets, have a look t jack carta and philippines. a lot of money continuing to flow into the merging markets. not just equities. a look at these currency. continuing to drop against emfx. -- these that's are fairly sharp moves. should be the biggest drop in three or four weeks. at a korea one, 13-month high. it doesn't help that it comes on a day when south exports for july came monthly straight decline the other big story, of course, dollar-yen. the day out at 102. we've clawed back up to
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102.53. driving it across equities. tokyo. finally arriving to bond deals. 10-year, panese negative 14. u.s. 10 years at just under 1.5%. a s shaped up to be fairly interesting trading sessio session. be revealed ll on tuesday worth $273 billion. such package since markets crashed in 1990. t follows last week's minimal addition to monetary easing by the boj. or more we're joined from toky by bonds and ethics reporter. investors want to hear? the court has put the ball in their court. what they really want to is what is underneath the hood in this stimulus? $28 dline number,
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trillion yen. that's on the higher side of expected.le had but we don't know over what time period that's going to don't out and we also know how much of it is actually going to be new spending. issuance they will have to do. what local investors are calling pure water in the package. so the questions are big ones, and until we find out don't know ors which way to go really. >> yeah. still some big questions out too.e, as you mentioned, ball is now in their court. have left s to the door open for more ction as well especially for september. >> right. that's right. september specifically, he's of current view policy. now, it's not clear what triggered that it's not what it entails. but certainly several analysts are talking about it basically allows new o create a whole
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policy mix if it's deemed that the current mix is not working. speculation e that there might be helicopter money as soon as really dideally, put pressure on him to act but what he's done really, minimal, he did the minimum really that markets would kind of let him get away with if i could put it that way. and just basically said, et's see what the fiscal stimulus looks like and then let's see how our current stimulus is working. reassess in september. the expectations were so really the bar to actually do something was -- it's e that difficult to confront. t's a bit clever here in leaving the door open. >> yeah. indeed. thank you so much. we look tokyo, as ahead to that fiscal stimulus package. the details of that. are flying high with prices holding near 1350. growing also
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interest these days in lithium because of electric and renewable batteries. next, one of the biggest new ore deposits in the world. ken joins us live from the and dealers forum. great to have you. hen you talk about western australia where you are ight now, give us a case, why you think the supply of lithium could be the region's next mining boom. >> it's incredible what's happening. change.menal to electrify the transport industry and take more renewables.f the battery technology is really ey to that significant change, and, of course, we hink the project will be a really important part of the overall solution. >> there is also debate of the e trajectory
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lithium carbonate prices because some are sxwroekting may shift to a surplus as these new people -- are most on the ing excitement right now? >> yeah. act erstand that faith but you also need to appreciate just how rapidly change ism supply in china. i would suggest that's probably being underestimated by the western world. it's certainly our experience that there is huge demand growing there rising because of government's push to renewables, and clearly, lithium will be key that change. that's why we think we're going to be an important part of the supply solution. it's a significant change and pricing very, very strong as a result. pricing.bout can you give us your outlook for prices. do you expect they are going to continue to rise, when you bring
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production into the market? >> yeah. reallyid, pricing is strong. a lot of people have expressed some reservation prices and how they are quoted. it is the case today that big buyers in big volume are paying more than 20,000 for carbon, in the battery markets. can stay there when you consider what's happening to the demand equation and perhaps more importantly, domestic prices in china are up probably over time going to be prices.by sea borne could that pricing be in the order of 12 to $14,000. but that's still an incredibly healthy price and projects like ours. >> you've lived through downside of a commodity boom before previously. i mean, what is the risk, this glut es to
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of lithium projects and development? what is that going to have, an effect? could it slug the market --h a flood the market with the fear that we saw? >> there are two dynamics. here is the speed with which projects unfold and we're unfortunately at the front of the cue. works hard on our project, we've got the project a long way down the pipeline. the other thing is the speed with which the alternate projects unfold. example, the brian project and how quickly they expand. i don't think that will be the case. it lineup fold quickly and that should continue to pricing in the medium term. that's part one. art two, also having fundamentally a really low cost base. pilbara, being close to the port, high grade, all things
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that contribute to a really low cost base and as a result we would suggest that be one of the best projects globally and that's why we refer to it as lithium 's leading development project. >> when it comes to iron metals know the pretty well from your days. with the commodity obviously. pilbara hink that talk -- is there any -- ibility of holding possible deal? we're very interested many having a look. anything that adds to our portfolio, something that perhaps a good blending criteria or even some higher grade where it's of course, hen we would look at it but it's not anarea of intense focus. got a lot of our own high quality product. we're not -- money is certainly not burning a hole in our pocket. when it's all said and done,
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analogy with respect to, bad one such a because we're going to be a project that's for the ages. t's going to be one of the lowest cost operations. we're a survivor in the lithium game and take dvantage of significant margins that we see going forward. >> we'll leave it there. thank you so much. ken, joining us from pilbara diggers and the dealers forum. money.pter our next guest believes they may be running out of other options. next. this is bloomberg.
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vigil equity holding for the first time which shadow the benchmark index. negative rates are sweeping japanese banks the latest lenders to post results and profits sell 16% first time last quarter. however, that still beats estimates. apanese banks have started charging them a 10th of 1% or a portion of their cash parked at the substitution. will release results later today. worse than expected first earnings. net income fell 64% from the same period a year earlier. panasonic says it plans to sell nearly $4 billion in bonds. it's hired seven banks including goldman, to look into the sale of five, 10-year notes. oining me now, heidi and juliette. plus our guest. let's continue on with the japanese theme, i guess.
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real helicopter money could be coming to japan this year? sure whether this year but it's inevitable. it has to happen. n other words, you have to break the nexus between borrowing and spending. you've got to spend without borrowing. so helicopter money is going to be there. there are many different definitions of helicopter money. what was discussed prior to 29s was not helicopter money. using why people were words like steppingstone towards. but ultimately, helicopter to come and not just -- >> if helicopter money does seeing you're upside. down 16%. >> correct. so in other words, if abbott do anything, if nothing happens, yen yen ciates, if appreciates, no cash flow, no investment, no wages, no nation inflation. to break the nexus. you, in other words, you lose in the relationship
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the japanesend equity market. but a much better way is aggressive y fiscal income support and monetary policies combined. makes you think it work? inflation reminds it's hard to break. saying today helicopter money is not the panacea you're looking for. panacea.not a i'm not trying to treat the patient. the patient is dead. e's not dead, the fourth stage of cancer. i'm trying to provide chemotherapy for patients to live out their lives in a reasonable degree of comfort but i'm certainly not problem.the >> to follow up on heidi's oint, there have been 26 stimulus packages. doesn't exactly give a ringing endorsement of the strategy. re we going to be having this conversation again in 26 years or is the patient finally going to die? going to what's happen, up until now we have had stimulus without combining with monetary
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policy. to merge them so you've got income stimulus. giving money to people, institute minimum income guarantees fully boj.d by permanent. not temporary, permanent. i'm not suggesting for a not d that that will potential lead to hyper ininflation. it could. it could lead to price bubbles and deflation. it could. but what are the alternatives? euro or china offer it. >> the alternative might be reform and perhaps immigration reform. hard.t's too >> one of the things that's clearly happening, we're demobilizing. the history books will rewritten, we'll be known as the high point of deregulation and liberalization. will be written in the next 50 years, will be
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2008 to 2058, essentially de globalization. period. immigration is not the answer. borders are likely to be closed and trade is likely more restricted, not less restricted, as we go forward. we've had 294 companies report so far. 19%.ings down >> yes. i mean whether we include commodities or exclude commodities, whether you or europe, u.s. whether you look at japan, look at japan, umbers numbers coming off, there is no earnings -- what we've seen is extension of multiples expecting earnings to come through. analysts have to be better. as an asset doesn't exist which is the opposite of fixed income or foreign policy. they don't care where the market goes so long as it moves. people expect 10% to 12% growth rates around the world. occurring, of it
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without public sector, multiplying money much more aggressively than the public sector have done so far is almost zero. so the problem is we're -- something the going to happen around the corner. t will not, unless public sector becomes aggressive. private sector is highly to multiply aggregate demand. she -- what you said about the ntiglobalization sentiment that we're seeing. we spoke to the c.e.o. embraceent, he said globalization. it's the answer. more globalization. >> it is. get.'re not going to >> that's right. the reason we've got to get it because people don't want so, go back and say, we're in a period of massive structural changes. labor force melting in front our eyes into something no one really can recognize anymore.
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living in a world of significant overleverage nd overcapacity deflationary pressures so as a result, people are asking for help. people y ask for it will get it. >> don't underestimate a fed rate hike? > that's why i should step back from all of that and say, die really want to try anticipate how -- i should just give away this game and say, at the end of day, federal reserve can't tighten. that's really not in the they do even if they will create massive dislocation, would that impact good companies? impact companies that i want to invest in? will lly speaking, it not. my approach for the last largely rs was, ignore the noise. >> all right. much.ank you so live here in the studios. up next, it's time to spin wheel. gaming figures this afternoon. will they be the cards for
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>> you're watching "asia." fortunes are changing. analysts still see declines in casino revenue in july, but investors are hoping the pace of the drop will continue to ease. twohas been hurting for years now due to a slowdown in the economy. is macau jose -- it's good to have you here hong kong. as we count down to these gaming figures, can you tell macau has think
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turned a corner or are we oing the see another false start? >> we think, according to the numbers coming out, it's stabilizing. this is because for the past few years, the macau people out crying for more stabilizing economy, not developing at such a fast pace. making some kind of social problems. hat's why the central government is taking into consideration that the macau you e, overall, as know, it's a very small place. 650,000 people live there. we're still ahead of las in terms ee times of revenues and macau continues to be the best comfortable, the closest to mainland china so a creates and generates lot of potential, that makes the people that come over to macau to gamble feel much more comfortable. >> where are you seeing recovery?s of we do see vip, you know, the
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weak.is still pretty pickup. bit of a >> it depends in terms of what kind of view you're looking at. if you look at the perspective of the local people, of course, they feel comfortable ecause it's not so many people coming over. >> we want to diversify in and of mass market that's why the family gatherings, people that bring over their children, really enjoy a few days not become so dependable on the high vip rooms. what is the future of the they will his continue to be as long as the people are interested. new an see the developments in macau, the new ones that will be of august the end and september, they are all requesting vip rooms. that's why we think there is kind of a stabilizing, and
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sectors will continue to normal in a very way, that we hope that it will almost respect the macau in terms of social issues, especially housing and healthcare. midst of this, what level of gaming revenue do you expect to be at least now? i mean what are you expecting, a little bit more upbeat in your eyes, what level you actually focus on? we're ong as profiting, we're still three times ahead of las vegas and at worst number one in terms of revenues gaming. so, we in macau continue to be safe. >> what about the overnment, do they need government, do they need to do more to help with this recovery? are they doing enough? depends on what
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perspective central government wants according macau.wishes of the >> sure. we just talked about the tory last week about the japanese billionaire, really trying to challenge macau trying to woo the gamblers to come to his $4 illion casino resort in manila. we continue to see this trend. threat?see it as a >> i don't see it as a macau is the e positioned. it e going to -- once settles down in a few years, in the next few years, we'll see the increase in terms of the people that comes over in the delta region. this will make mau much more profitable in terms of gaming. >> jose -- in macau joining here.
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hopefully the ferry back turbulent. as for us you have today from dubai? >> we have a jam packed show your way. we'll be taking a closer coming out of saudi arabia because it looks like liquidity continues to be under pressure. e also have some oil consumption figure that show us a picture that shows the saudi economy struggling those lower oil prices. e'll get you the full picture with the chief executive officer with renaissance capital. he'll give us some context but also ry joining us is the founder of the ogistics giant -- man himself, we'll talk through what he has been up stock ly because the has been on a tear. and also, outlook of what he plans to do going forward. >> thank you. go, let's talk
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