welcome to "bloomberg markets." ♪ vonnie: we are live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour. david: san francisco, washington, blue zheng. -- beijing. thank america ceo brian moynihan tells us about the challenges of running a bank in uncertain times. vonnie: then, oil rising for the second straight day. is the bear market for crude already over? we speak with mike wittner who says it still has time to unfold. david: and profitability forecasts disappoint analysts. at the same time, nike makes the decision to sell its golf division. will adidas sell its own golf division?

julie hyman have the latest at the desk. julie: we are seeing a treading the major averages. the dow is slightly lower. the s&p and nasdaq or slightly higher. this is really a repeat of the same playbook we have seen more or less in the last month since the beginning of earnings season this isas stocks move sideways. this even after we got the news today that the bank of england was cutting rates by 25 basis points and injecting more stimulus into the u.k. economy through quantitative easing. you did see more reaction in the bond market to that news. if you look at the 10-year, you see a declining yield. 1.51%. only down for basis points. if you look at the pound itself, there you definitely saw more movement, a very germanic move lower, and -- a very dramatic move lower. getting back to u.s. stocks, there is strong on the individual stock level.

we got a lot of earnings. cf industries down after the fertilizer maker came out with earnings that miss estimates. pricing difficulties going into next year. analysts say there is not a lot of visibility for 2017, and there may be continued difficulty in pricing in the solar panel markets. metlife plunging because of its veritable annuities business, a provider of services to power plant builders, etc., cutting its forecast because of power plant project issues. all of these showing some big declines. david: one particular investor having an especially good day. julie: yes, on the flip side. is foursquare. and twitter is catching an updraft as well. -- square's6

revenue is up. jack dorsey has about a 23% stake in this company. remember, he owns nearly 24 million shares of twitter as well. so obviously a good day here for dorsey as the values of his investments go up. vonnie: julie, thank you p are will check back in a little bit. first word news this afternoon, mark crumpton has more. mark: democratic vice presidential nominee tim kaine says we would have strong partners in washington if clinton wins the white house. he spoke at the national urban league save our city's conference in baltimore. sen. cain: hold us accountable for the problem -- : hold us accountable for the problems. we have a lot of problems that need solving. and this campaign has laid bare the deep divisions that still remain in this country -- racism, sexism, islamophobia, and so much else.

campaignald trump's declined an invitation to speak. mrs. clinton has a 16-point advantage over mr. trump in new hampshire according to a survey of likely voters. clinton leads trump 47% to 32%. johnson has 8%. green party candidate jill stein has 3%. but voters remain divided over whether clinton is fit to be president. 48% say she is, 46% say she is not feared 53% say trump is not fit to be president or 31% say he is. and several in a, the man accused of killing nine black parishioners at a charleston church has allegedly been assaulted by another inmate. dylann roof was in the shower when he was allegedly beaten by another inmate at the charleston county jail. roof was not seriously injured. syracuse says the court has issued a formal warrant for the

arrest of us-based muslim cleric behind the failed coup attempt i've renegade officers in turkey last month. exilees in self-imposed in pennsylvania. he has an eye any involvement in the coup attempt. -- he has denied any involvement in the two attempt. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. vonnie: mark, thanks. and the lingering uncertainty. it is not easy to be a bank ceo these days. is ceo of bank of america. earlier in an expose of interview on "bloomberg ." brian: in the u.s., it was tough because of the economy, because regulators.

what we do not have multiple jurisdictions and multiple regulators. that makes it so much harder. the second issue is you do not have the capital markets in europe. in the u.s., we could get those off the capital markets. we could restructure the balance sheets aired at the time when we bought merrill lynch, almost thre trillion dollars -- a most $3 trillion. that is harder to do in europe. multiple jurisdictions, multiple banks, real economy. here, it is capital markets and things, and that made it difficult. they're getting to it at a pace that is more slow, and people can be critical, but you have got to understand. what did we learn about the state of the banking system from the stress tests that just came out? it showed that companies had the capital for a reasonable recession to get through.

it also showed on a relative basis the u.s. stress scenario is much more severe. the capital comes out about the same, so to speak. but we are a more mature place in this recovery in some ways in terms of banking structure, but they will get there. david: where do you think u.s. banks stand with respect to washington and with respect to the public at large? brian: if you go back and look at various things at bank of random score is higher than it has ever been cured our customers are doing well with us. that is good news. there is a dialogue about the structure of the system that will go on and will probably go on forever. it has gone on for a long time. people think about last eagle -- people think about glass-steagall and all this debate. we have more capital, more liquidity. we are healthier. we have gone through the stress test and show that we can survive a terrible recession without any prior warning, without any change, and be more

stable for on top of that, the activity is not any different. the system is in very good shape. the other question -- have you set the barriers and boundaries in the right way that we can drive the real economy? we have got to make sure we set the balance right. david: if things are going well, why are you so unpopular? as a group, as banks are you mentioned glass-steagall. both platforms mentioned one thing, that we should bring back glass-steagall. what accounts for that? brian: part of it as we are just big. part of it is people are worried. can the banks face the same distress? when people think about glass-steagall, people have different views about what it means. some it is size, some it is activity, some it is risky trading. you have all the different things. but if you think about regulatory things that the company has done, from capital, multiple. liquidity, multiple.

we made money trading every day last quarter. our -- we have $40 million abroad. think about that. so the risk is way down, but the revenue is up. the revenues that when awake theyeverybody points to -- are revenues that should not have been done under god for good. and are gone for good. it is a much safer system. now the questioning goes -- is it too big? are the sixth or seventh largest market cap in the world. our companies are big because our economies are bigger. it is just that simple. we do not have 13% market share in consumer banking. we have trillion dollar deposits. that is because our economy is

big. supporting big companies, a big economy, that is why we are here. david: brian moynihan, speaking exclusively with "bloomberg " alix steel and david westin earlier today. showing hillary clinton is leading donald trump in key swing states. can she hold onto the lead? this is bloomberg. ♪

david: mrs. "bloomberg markets." i am david gura. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. time for bloomberg's business flash. lending club is said to be in talks with western asset asagement to bridges as much $1.5 million of loans overtime -- to purchase as much as $1.5 billion of loans overtime. western will purchase a certain amount each month. a deal could be announced in the coming week. david: bayer is taking steps that may lead to a $55 billion takeover offer for monsanto. bayer had signed confidentiality agreements to examine monsanto's accounts. last month, monsanto rejected a sweetened offer to create the world's largest producer of seed

and pesticides. vonnie: insurance regulators have considerable concerns about anthem's acquisition of cigna. it will hold a hearing before deciding whether to approve the deal. the financial services says the plan would reduce competition. the u.s. department has already sued to block the deal on antitrust grounds. that is your bloomberg business flash updates. we will turn to politics now with hillary clinton now holding onto her post-convention bounce. a new national poll by fox news to clinton leading trump 49% 39%. ,oining us now is mark halperin cohost of "with all due respect." local polls at this point, state polls might matter more. a pollumpton mentioned

out of new hampshire, showing 32% your dayto pretty favorable margin. mark: these are a snapshot of where we are, but in this case, it is like a snapshot of trump's severed arm. most have clinton at a lead, not surprising. states like michigan, florida, new hampshire, states that donald trump has normally talked about competing in, but the states that he must compete in and win if he is going to get most electoral votes. very grim news on the candidate's poor performance. polls are terrifying for republican. , a look at new hampshire very strong senate incumbent kelly ayotte is down 10 points. clearly in part because of the donald trump polling.

is this the worst polling for the campaign so far? it is. vonnie: why does it seem like republicans are defecting? are, but most are not. you have got a few defections. you have got a congressman who is retiring. you look at a playbook for winning a general election. you are a republican in office running for election or for an open seat, and you tell your voters -- i am against donald conservative the base will be angry at you. there is no playbook for winning a general election when 70% of your voters are angry at you. why it is -- while it is tempting to speak out against trump, their chances are better for reelection to stick with him. david: you have got meg whitman who ran. thender the degree to which

clinton campaign is trying to recruit republicans to come to their side? mark: as donald trump would say, they are doing it big league. they are doing it quietly behind the scenes. they are trying to decipher what pace to roll them out, whether to let it happen organically. but hillary clinton herself is on the phone with, met republicans -- with prominent republicans trying to pick some off, and trying to find some who will normalize the notion of being a republican for clinton. they want to find symbolically important people. so republicans who are not prominent can say well, i guess it is ok for a republican to vote or hillary clinton. you will see more of it. pass the first debate, you will see a lot more. vonnie: how much does clinton have to worry about her unfavorable views? mark: she would like them to be better. she is unfavorable with voters not trusting her, and yet a 10 point lead. it is clear that looking at these two unpopular candidates,

the winning candidate will have there is no way that candidate with such a high unfavorable will be elected president, but with these two candidates, she would like her numbers to be better, but it what be nice if people trust or more, but it will not be necessary for her to be trump. mark halperin, see why. we will have live coverage of president obama's news conference of the campaign against the islamic state at 10:15 p.m. wall street time. vonnie: time warner taking on netflix and amazon. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets."

i am vonnie quinn. david: i am david gura. earnings season is still in full swing. julie hyman has a look at a couple who reported today. 20th century fox and viacom both reported today. viacom has been bouncing around a lot today. it was into the green, now back into the right at the moment. viacom's numbers were mixed, as that bouncing around would indicate your it on the one hand, the company seeing profit, it did come in higher than estimates. but operating income fell 29%. it saw lower ratings for tv channels, higher cost to acquire new shows, and it also saw a bomb in the form of "teenage mutant ninja turtles." then there is 21st century fox. in the case of viacom, it is a the ceod fight between and sumner redstone's family. then there is 21st century fox,

the fox news division after the departure of roger ailes. call today saying fox news will stay the course and try to maintain the same tenor in terms of its coverage. at the same time, profit was up, and it did beat analysts' estimates. ebitda fell. tda, "independence day: resurgence" was the failure here. looking at box office for each of these companies, 20th century fox is in white, paramount, which is viacom's them division division, who had no film releases. these numbers seem relatively low versus analysts' expectations, especially when you have a couple of big bombs at the box office. it is not great news. vonnie: that is for sure. julie, thank you.

another big headline this week -- time warner is taking a 20% stake in hulu, they move giving hulu to access to all oof time warner's networks. it is all part of jeff bewkes' master plan. bloombergn with weeks's" gerry smith. will helpf said this them compete with netflix, and also the traditional cable companies like comcast. aremore competitors there two netflix, the better. netflix has become so popular that it poses threats to the traditional television business. avid: i am interested in change with him about proliferation of content, how many shows are available today, his fascination, his dedication, figuring out how to wade through the shows.

hulu ahe says he likes lot because it has a user interface that makes it easy to find shows. we are going through a golden age of television right now where there are more than 400 scripted series on the air, and it is really hard when you were on tv to figure out well, how do i find all of these shows? jeff bewkes is very interested in hulu and other tech companies business,e television sort of like what netflix pioneered. vonnie: to a certain extent, content is a problem for time warner. its stake in hulu, how can it become part of the strategy making side of hello? gerry: it only has -- of hulu? gerry: it only has a 10% stake in the board, so it does not have any governance of hulu. pickis jeff bewkes'

strategy, where they are trying to navigate the old television where they make most of their money, and the future of the television, which is the core cutters, people who do not subscribe to cable. time warner has been particularly aggressive in sort futureting the of television. hbo you can subscribe to without paying for cable. jeff bewkes is trying to sort of between thesener two worlds, and it has been interesting to watch. david: on that journey between those two worlds, sports still looms pretty large. time warner has had a lot of success biting sports rights -- buying sports rights. what about the value of those investments for a company like time warner? gerry: time warner has spentgerry: billions of dollars on sports rights. they had the ncaa march madness on the turner cable channels. they also have nba basketball, major league baseball.

they have spent billions of dollars on acquiring this. he thinks that sports rights are going to continue to get more expensive, yeah, which carries on to the cable provider and gets passed on to you and me in the form of higher cable bills. if you look at the television industry right now, having live sports is a huge deal because it is one of the last things that people are still watching live. most of the television people are watching is on-demand, but if you have live sports, you can get the higher ad dollars, and that helps you in this landscape. right, gerry smith, thank you. his exclusive interview with jeff bewkes is in the latest "bloomberg businessweek." this is bloomberg. ♪ e

david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york but this is "bloomberg markets."

vonnie: commodity markets closing in new york. to thetures climbed up bank of england unleashed a stimulus package that includes the central banks first rate cut in seven years. -- clues on the bed futures fellve -- back into the red astrid is focused on the potential for record stockpiles before the winter. struggling at $41.92 a barrel. david: can we really call it a crude come back? pricesh for oil continues lower.

you are bullish, but cautious. what is your sense here of prices? alan greenspan saying he spotted in the low $40 range. >> we may have bottomed out. it's a little too early to be definitive. we could go as low as the high 30's. we did touch that range a couple days back. there's good reasons to be cautious and good reason to think this is not going to last forever. refinery margins are pretty weak. global demand growth is decelerating and we have upcoming seasonal weakness for both crude demand and product .emand to me, this is a taste of the classic bottom downturn in markets, but it's come a little early at some refineries ease up

weak margins. vonnie: how much is oil factor related and not gold moving and the dollar moving? michael: there's a lot of nonfundamental factors that are always at work in the oil markets and they come and go. in recent weeks, most of the oil price movement has been driven bestndamentals paired fundamentals. -- driven by fundamentals. central banks, currency can have an impact. most of the moves have been because of concern over fundamentals. going forward, the big thing to remember -- client asked me come are going back to $35 again? the big difference is back then, we had huge global oversupply.

right now, globally, we are roughly balanced. there may be a bit more downside, but it is limited. your sense ofget global politics, geopolitics and what that meant for rent prices ports.a opening some as you survey the globe, what are the riskiest spots, the hotspots you are most concerned about? michael: libya and nigeria are top of the list. you always worry about the entire northeast, that middle east come in -- the entire middle east, north africa region. those have reliably been the source of geopolitical issues. libya, some people right now are worried about another bearish pressure on the market coming from libya, returning oil and

nigeria also coming back. they reached an agreement on libya, but even the libyan state oil company is saying we are coupleto get a hundred k bd back by the end of the year. even they are being very cautious. in nigeria, the recent agreement with some of the militant groups has excluded the main group that has been doing the damage in the last few months. there, i'm also not sure if there's really any substance behind it. will get a huge tidal wave of crude coming back from those two countries. relatively balanced supply and demand wise. what would be the catalyst to drive the price higher, then? michael: the catalyst would be as we go through the next couple

of months, if we stay here in the low 40's or maybe 40-40 five -- - s range, we want , we will see heating demand boosted this winter. global demand growth seems to be doing ok. it is still fairly solid. as long as demand is reasonably healthy and u.s. supply continues to erode, we are on track for this balanced market and then the market will be looking ahead to next year where we will see big stock draws eventually. david: your read on what they are expecting? reported u.s.

supply and demand with a two-month leg. for may.ve final data the numbers are a bit worrying, to be honest. down may demand by 1.1 million barrels a day. the previous month, they revised april down by .8, which is also a big number. it's about what we were expecting, so, which side of the coin do you look at? if you are bullish before and say now it's going gang busters, now, you say not so much. it's roughly what we expected. depends on which side you look at it from. vonnie: natural gas is what you up to keep an eye on.

other hydrocarbons bottomed out in early march and we seems to this seemed to have -- we seem to have bottomed out. what is next for natural gas? michael: big picture, natural gas going forward into the winter, there is a bit of upside. there is some similarities to market, ine, the oil the sense that on the supply side, it is starting to trend a bit lower. meanwhile, demand is ok. on the natural gas side, the demand is much more seasonal. what we will be looking at is where do we and the injection nd the injection season and then it comes down to winter. david: i want to ask about the

role the election is playing. harold hamm worries about regulation, hopes the next president will do more to reduce regulation on drilling. how big a risk is that as you forecast out? michael: whoever wins the election, it is not going to have a very big impact on the production side. it is the markets. what we've seen the last couple of years, both on the oil side and the gas side, you see the entire industry responding to a low price environment. they have dramatically cut their budgets, drilling is going down and production is responding. that is really what is going to be balancing the market and driving the price is going forward.

whoever wins the election come i don't think that is a big factor. david: steele has long been in the spotlight as an american industry losing an unfair fight to china. aluminum has been forgotten. that's where we found century aluminum company one of two sellers -- >> this is the century aluminum smelter in kentucky. third-largest plant, accounting for 14% of production. r largest plant. it once employed 750 people. >> it was hustle and bustle. >> now, thanks to this year's aluminum price averaging the factory is003, the

struggling to stay afloat. >> it's like a ghost town almost. , one of only two companies running smelters in the u.s., cut capacity by 60%. it also focused production on high purity metal. survival is not certain. this plant does not work anymore any year. >> prices are down 40% from a 2011 peak. there,demand is not there's too much supply. >> china accounts for 55% of total alumina production. the nation will boost production by 4.4%, perpetuating a global glut of 1.2 3 million tons. >> the supply is being propped up by subsidies. something has to give.

that subsidized production has to stop. >> power is the biggest cost saving -- subsidies for power are giving china an unfair advantage. >> it takes an enormous amount of power. china has been subsidizing its aluminum sector. the theare pushing for bdo to address the matter -- wto to address the matter. >> if we wait another year, there may be nothing to talk about. this plant may be with no activity at all. >> companies like airbus and boeing along with u.s. defense department relying on century's high purity aluminum will have to rely on foreign products. >> we cannot compete with somebody that doesn't follow the

same set of rules. joe reportingas from century aluminum's plant in kentucky. leisureate for some stocks. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." julie hyman has been looking at a few movers. julie: a few leisure stocks. not feeling so leisurely today in terms of their stock performance. mgm resorts coming out with its

numbers come up 53%. vegas,pany saw gains in but lackluster gains in terms of revenue, making up for the slowness in macau. the company once again delayed the opening of its mgm resorts resort in macau. trip advisor, a stock down sharply by 8%. the company's been making the ship more into mobile and what it calls instant booking. they are not getting referral revenue from other websites. it's been a bit more rocky or delayed than analysts had been anticipating.

see world continuing -- sea world continuing an ongoing decline. the company's second-quarter attendance down 500,000 people. a lot of that had to do with the florida location and a shift in holiday timing and 2016 that affected nearly all of the companies park locations. the second-quarter attendance, 5.9 8 million. the company also cutting its --l-year adjusted forecast shares down 13% today. david: look at some movers this afternoon. now, let's check on the headlines. ryan reaffirming his support for donald trump. his first interview since trump declined to back him, ryan said his endorsement is not "a blank check."

hesaid the only endorsement cares about is from the voters in his congressional district. ryan faces a primary challenge on tuesday. egypt's military says the leader of islamic state's affiliate has been killed in the sinai peninsula. he was killed by counterterrorism forces backed by warplanes. several of his aides along with 45 members of the group were also killed. police in london say the woman killed in a knife attack today was american. five other people were wounded. a 19-year-old norwegian man of somali origin was arrested. the ad there is no evidence he was radicalized. auto safety investigators in the u.s. and canada may have a new airbag problem to deal with. they're looking into whether the death of a canadian driver was caused by a faulty airbag

inflator made intimacy. -- made in tennessee. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. david: coming up on "bloomberg markets," winners and losers in the sporting goods business. and 90sees a sales jump gets -- nike gets out of the golf equipment business. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: this is "bloomberg markets." vonnie: incorporate news today, do this -- in corporate news today, adidas making a comeback in the u.s. thank you decision to pull out of the golf equipment business is raising some questions -- to pull out of the golf equipment business is raising some questions. there's not much left to cover with golf these days. adidas is looking to sell its

golf division. they've been chopping that for a year plus now. easier for nike when it's just their own. they are getting out of equipment, not the footwear and apparel. very they say they are dedicated to. in the golf world, this is a big shock. vonnie: is the market size diminishing? eben: this is a sport that struggles when there is a recession and never really came back to the same numbers from the public we saw a decade ago. has a demographic problem, the number of golfers playing are getting older, the growth of endurance sports and fitness sports has cut into the gulf -- .olf margins

this is the worst-performing major segment across nike's entire business. this is a tough time to be in the gulf world -- golf world. this might be the time to get out. you cannot talk nike golf without addressing tiger woods. he took the company to absolute stardom. he has not been the same tiger woods recently, obviously. there is a chance he doesn't play again. his career arc has gone in the way that nike golf's career has gone as well. david: i could name many basketball stars with clothing lines. why aren't there more people like tiger woods who manage those deals?

eben: golf was tiger woods' spor t. there are other great golfers in nike's stable. they could become free agents now, which would be lucrative for them. they tweeted they were willing to audition tiger and michelle wie. david: looking at callaway callawayd to nike does positioned to gain. : this certainly frees up some room for callaway. investors in callaway certainly have the same concerns that nike has come up about the strength of the overall business. the pats got cleared a bit now for callaway. vonnie: but why stick with

footwear and apparel? eben: it fits more with their overall business as a whole. the idea that you will have engineers out there developing clubs, developing bags, developing balls is a whole different step away from the core nike product than it is to have engineers that are focusing on a golf shoe versus running shoe. vonnie: there became too much hardware. you always have to be buying new stuff. you couldn't just have a set of clubs and hold onto them for five or six years. -- tooregated segregated? >> that's any industry. i bought a laptop last year and is already out of date. sameolf world to the

approach and for a long time was profiting off the fact that your irons were out of date the year after you bought them. maybe that has come back to bite the companies because there's not as much money out there, not as many consumers looking for it . vonnie: check it out. a great story about callaway. -- the ceo of the honolulu-based bank joins us live from the nasdaq. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: i am david gura. vonnie: and i am vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets."

: we're covering stories from san francisco, chicago, and rio de janeiro. first hawaiian shares climbing in their trading debut, raising almost $500 million. bnp paribas spun it off to his capital. we will be joined from the nasdaq. vonnie: the duke energy cfo is here following the company's better than estimated second-quarter earnings. will the company achieve its full-year forecast and complete an acquisition? is billionaire steve: already planning his return to the investment world? vonnie: one hour from the close of trading. let's head to the markets