>> with all due respect to joe boss, isift for his only the second best birthday gift ever in american history. ♪ boss, is only the second happy birthday ♪ ♪ >> tonight on a special all-new episode, trump dodging, 2.0. againnational survey once

shows hillary clinton leading donald trump by double digits. this one is from mcclatchy and marist but chose clinton leading from by 15 points. 48%-33%. miss on the heels of the fox news survey that should clinton with a six point swing since june. clinton in a fox poll no longer trails trump on key issues like who is considered more honest and trustworthy. it is happening not just nationally. there are four new key polls out today. including ones that trump has mentioned last week in the key to his victory vision. >> we have a lot of states in play. will do great in michigan. we will do great in pennsylvania. in new hampshire, i am leading by a lot. i'm going to win in florida. >> how is he actually doing in those states? suffolk has clinton up by six

points in florida. wmur has her up 17 in new hampshire. a poll by franklin and marshall says her lead is 11 points in pennsylvania. in michigan, clinton is beating trumped by 10 points. win states not a must for trump, but if true it could be real problems for trump in the rust belt and other states with large suburban populations. only 65% of strong republicans are supporting their party's nominee. it is most prominent in the suburbs around detroit. libertarian candidate gary pollingis pulling -- 16% of all republican votes, more than double what he gets statewide. it comes almost entirely from trumped affection driven by white, republican men. mark, we always like to say that snapshots, but

also that these are really bad for donald trump. how bad are the? y? >> polls are just a snapshot. >> i just said that. >> but this is a snapshot of a severed arm. they have to put the arm back on. the only good news for trump is that it is a wake-up call for him to change his ways. he talks about the polls all the time. he cannot be in denial. he condones one or two as being off -- he can denounce one or two polls as being off, but this is a body of data derivative of a successful democratic convention. he has august to fix it. bumpu will always get a coming out of your convention. but the other bad news is to crater in a historic way at the same time your opponent is rising.

the problem here is that these numbers can lock in for a long time. he might not be up to move them in an appreciable way until the first debate. that is a month away? these are bad. the national number is big and it shows that trump's floor is lower than we thought, but the state polls and these attributes where clinton had a lead on trump -- i would be freaking out if i were in the truck campaign. mark: they have money now. do you want to spend money on august advertising to fix your poll numbers in august? john: when everyone is watching the olympics? mark: probably not. this is scary for republicans. it is given the never trumpers a big "i told you so" moment. you cannot assume he will get polling numbers that are good anytime soon. john: it is freaking everybody out when they are already freaked out. mark: the last toy for hours

have brought new report -- 24 hours have brought new reports of discord for donald trump because of two republican congressman who have distanced themselves from the standardbearer. adam kinzinger said after the events last week he cannot support him. republican mike coffman is running a tv ad vowing he will stand up to trump if trump is president. trump after team is fighting back. they were out in force today. paul manafort was on cbs. he tried for the second day in a row to move his campaign, or the perception of the campaign back on track. >> we are comfortable about where we are organizationally. we are not covetable with the narrative but the media seems to be taking which is building a storyline that the democrats are controlling the race. a drop in poll numbers were expected, but in two weeks that will even out if we are out on our message. he will support paul ryan.

he does support paul ryan. he says he will work with paul ryan. there is no issue about that. he did not take a position in the primary. he has not taken a position in many berries. the new -- many primaries. the issue is them working together to elect a new republican congress and republican president. ryan, in a radio interview. despite trump's refusal to endorse him, stood by the nominee. ryan: the- rep. only endorse i want is that of my constituents. of my own employers here in the first congressional district. when i did support donald, i said at that time and since, if i see a situation where our

conservative principles are being distorted i'm going to stand up for those conservative principles. mike pence sided with trump suggesting the ryan thing was based on his friendship. john, another new cycle has come and gone. where do things stand between trump and the republican party? >> i will say some thing that may be controversial. you could say that today was not a terrible day. these polling numbers that we just discussed will hit like a ton of ricks for republicans. like i said at the end of my last discussion we are already freaking out. signs ate maybe seeing the bottom is falling out. don't think anyone will listen to paul manafort and say this will turn around.

if you start to see actual data that trump is bottoming out and could be in the low 30's, that is a bad day for trump. >> a lot of republicans i have spoken to today look at the fox news mantra and say the polls are crooked. look at the crowd size and how bad hillary clinton is. there are donors who are now quietly not helping trump, working at getting some of them on this program. politicians who are strategizing with their staff to say how do we get untangled from trumped. work to pence is doing patch things up. trump will show more discipline. as you said, nothing matters with the party as much as the polls. the polls are poison. john: if i did your thing i would go to a camera and site, please do not talk about rigged

polls or crooked polls. remember 2012. you said all that stuff then, and you were wrong and disastrously wrong. while republicans are advertising, democrats are making every effort to tie donald trump to republicans. to weigh them down with his unpopularity. they are rolling out new 32nd tv ads targeting republican candidates in pennsylvania, wisconsin, missouri, north carolina, nevada, in florida. some of those republicans are certain to distance themselves in the coming weeks. there is one incumbent who got off to an early start. kirk said he would support trump if you became the nominee and by june he had reversed his stance. his campaign has run tv ads to say that he has bucked his party to say donald trump is not fit to be commander in chief. looking at the kirk example and

everything else we know at this moment, what you think that the for aand rewards are republican who would like to steer clear from trumped? mark: a big distance between senators and house members. most republicans are in gerrymandered districts. it's much harder for a house member to do. the senators can do it. mark kirk was considered the most in dangerous republican incumbent senator. he is now a life and competitive because he has distanced himself from trump. we talked about the new hampshire poll. trump down double digits. so is kelly i ought -- so is kelly ayotte. she cannot survive. she cannot survive trump losing by six. john: just unpacked the thing you said at the beginning. these house candidates are tied to trump. the national move moves those -- mood moves those house races around. senate races make their own weather to a greater degree. i think a lot of the states we just mentioned, republicans have

no choice. the risks are small. the rewards are high. mark: unless he comes running back. if he is down by seven or more? john: it will be necessary. it will not be risk-reward calculus. they will have to. what a come back, disciplined donald trump would look like. hard to imagine. that and more after our sponsors. ♪

mark: we are still talking about donald trump. much of the unrest within the republican party stems from the expectation by donors and

leaders, that as he entered the election he would mature and become a more predictable and disciplined candidate. that has proved to be wishful thinking, though it appears that the republican nominee sees the problem that others see. here is what he said yesterday in an interview with cbs 12 in daytona beach, florida. whoany people in the gop support your candidacy are advising you to focus on hillary clinton. they say you are being baited into battles that distract you from the message. mr. trump: i think that is probably right. more focus on hillary clinton. she is a disaster so we will focus more on her. mark: with the what? what?e trump finally doing what he is being advised to do. what would a more disciplined trump look like? john: in the realm of fantasy, you would have a candidate who talk about the economy and

policy. mark: in the real world, let's say there is improvement. how would he conduct himself? john: the hypothetical seems like, we have heard this so many times that he will become more disciplined and stay on message. mark: you don't think that being done 15 points will focus his mind? john: you would think. you would think that it would. it would look like him making his economic arguments, making foreign policy arguments, and at least mitigating some of the stuff. mark: they will never stop him from riffing at these rallies. he is doing the speech monday on the economy. the just have to make and go to the index card and read some soundbites on hillary clinton and the economy and hope that gets covered. john: he finds it impossible -- the thing about the khan controversy is, he is incapable of not heading back at anybody who hits at him. he punches down and sideways. he could give speeches with

cards, but the world will still spin, and people will attack him. i have never seen any evidence that he can resist the urge to attack anybody who attacks him however appropriate or inappropriate. mark: you think that will keep happening? john: of course it will keep happening. let's talk about donald trump's wife, melania. it started last week and when "the new york post" published nude photographs that she took as an model in 1995 when she said she was living in the u.s. on a foreign visa. she was born in slovenia and moved to the u.s. in the mid-1990's. there have been questions about what type of visa she had and whether or not she was permitted to work in america. "political," "the new york magazine," and others have written stories about this and how it compares to what trump has been preaching about immigration. spouses are typically not fair game. certainly the candidate's

nominees insist they are not fair game. should this be an exception? mark: she tweeted a statement earlier today saying she has been in full compliance with the immigration laws of this country, period. at all times. without answering some of the factual questions. this is a tough call. she did put herself forward at the convention, but all spouses do that. i have not seen scrutiny of this kind of jill biden. bill clinton is an exception. ann romney. you haven't seen this level of -- immigration is a tough issue. i think it needs to be done in a carefully and a thoughtful way. the trunk campaign, the way on -- the trump campaign, the understand why they are annoyed, need to answer the question. these are matters of law. -- it is alinton

legitimate area of inquiry. donald trump has attacked in a personal way over many months. i don't like the idea that spouses should be fair game. i think this is legitimate for the reasons that you said, but the reality is that it would be insane for the trump campaign to complain that melania trump is being subjected to scrutiny on the policy matter when donald trump attacks bill clinton on personal matters. mark: it would be great if she said -- if they just put out the facts and the rest use the judicious judgment normally used in questioning spouses. john: i agree with that. as public and strike to sort out the family drama, hillary clinton was out west in nevada with their jobs plan at an electric company in las vegas. yesterday and today, clinton has made an argument about trump's clothing line not being made in america.

hillary is doing all kinds of stuff. we have this crazy period. how well do you think the campaign has been capitalizing on trump's very bad stretch? mark: their living by the dictum, what is mine is mine, and what is yours we will negotiate over. they are going hard after working-class men in particular. mathematically, if hillary clinton can get a higher percentage of white, working-class men, the election is over. she has been really smart. in this battleground states where there are a lot of white, working-class men making a strong economic argument. john: they have also been smart. as trump has gotten himself in so much trouble with the khans, nothing he has been restrained, he has been criticized all over the place, but they have followed by the wisdom of, when someone is digging a ditch deeper and deeper, let them keep digging. let them go about their business. they have done that well.

this is a good argument for them. it goes not only to the voters but also to an argument that he claims to be one of his strong gust -- strongest. mark: all of the things that need to be done post-august, debate preparation, buying the trumpputting -- operation can say they are a different campaign and do not need to do all of that stuff. they are way behind in many areas. the clinton campaign is miles ahead. john: all true. next, the great kelly o'donnell of "nbc news." .irst, a quick break ♪

mark: joining us now, nbc news

correspondent kelly o'donnell from the nbc news washington bureau. so much trump stuff to talk about. you know mike pence well from covering him on capitol hill. talk about your take on how the relationship is functioning. >> it seems that donald trump is giving mike pence a little bit of breathing room to represent his own brand which is traditional republican conduit to the establishment. that fill the picture over the last 24 hours with respect to independently, mike pence endorsing paul ryan. but today not on camera, hence talk about wanting to be read -- supportive of republicans around the country but declined to endorse john mccain or kelly ayotte. there is some history with john mccain. he met with him personally in phoenix this week. one of john mccain's former strategists, who was a big

advocate for john kasich, try to shame mike pence saying it was mccain who came out to campaign for him in 2000. he tried to close that loop and say that he should have been able to stand up for mccain. it might have been a -- it might benefit mccain not to have trump or pence endorsing him. his general election fight for going back to the senate. mike pence is cutting a very hard to navigate line here where he gets to be himself, gets to support trump but also gets to sound like a more traditional republican edge is good for donald trump. john: what is freaking people out on capitol hill more? the things that donald trump says or his plummeting poll numbers? >> poll numbers are an early warning sign of where this could be going. it is an alarm bell that is at

this point perhaps going to make some of these republicans rally around trump privately. we saw a little evidence of a fromdisciplined message --mp consistently going he also veered into the trump tributaries as he likes to do, but more consistently hitting hillary clinton. the poll numbers are this warning shot. what trump says, many lawmakers are able to give a little bit of distance. they need coattails. they need an electorate that would like to show up and vote. from the republican point of view, this is a dire warning about the way that things can go. they can all fight their own campaigns but they need a way to get through to trump to be more disciplined a lot more focused, more typically professional candidate which is so against his brand.

mark: we like to trot out haley barbour expressions when we can. nothing is ever as good as it -- in politics, nothing is ever as good or bad as it seems. also, in politics, good gets bad and bad gets worse. do people see this as dire or likely to continue a bad run? >> for the conversations on him having, dyer is the word. there is -- dire is the word. dismay, anger, there is there is frustration as to why can't they get him on track more? his own player who likes to do his own thing and pushes back on any political advice. this notion that the great minds of the party will influence him is the thing he would bristle against. you have to convince him that it is in his own interest to stay focused on things where he might be able to see progress in this

campaign. there is some evidence that the focus on hillary clinton's message is getting through. republicans are really uncomfortable. they don't think that it shows the sign of getting on track. hillary clinton has shown more strength coming out of her convention than they expected. mark: nbc's kelly o'donnell. thank you very much. when we come back we will be #vinning. webber,n weber, -- vin the congressman from minnesota. right after this. john: vinning! ♪

john: our next guest joins us by phone from minnesota. we are joined by republican

former congressman vin weber. , you haven weber never been a big fan of donald trump. "unfanhood"t your has taken a turn as of late. rep. weber: that is a good word and an understated word. the republican party has made an epic mistake. it will not alienate every emerging and enlarging demographic in the country. and maybe a big drag on people down ticket, which i have not believed until now. but importantly, we have nominated somebody who is contrary to the spirit of ried tocanism that i tir build all my life. i was a foot soldier and ronald reagan's army and the chairman

and jack kemp's campaign. this is not the republicans that we want. mark: another you are loath to give advice to others, but what would you say to republicans on the ballot about what they should say about donald trump different from what they are currently setting? rep. weber: very tough. i don't hesitate to say it is easier for me. i am not running for anything. paul ryan has huge responsibilities. mitch mcconnell has huge responsibilities. candidates for office have to cope with the base of their party. they are unhappy with the fact -- mark: stipulating that it is tougher for them, what would you like them to do? rep. weber: i would like them to say that their agenda is not trump's agenda, that their leader is not trump's leadership. is not my concern. john: do you think that donald

trump is mentally and emotionally stable to be president of the united states? rep. weber: i don't know that. i will leave it to others. john: there are those who are concerned about that very issue. i'm curious if that is one of your concerns. rep. weber: i have followed that discussion. i don't need to have that question answered for my satisfaction. what he says about issues, and what he says about different groups of people is quite enough for me. he could be perfectly mentally stable and balanced, but i am still not for him. john: he is temperamentally suited to having control of the nuclear launch codes? rep. weber: i saw joe scarborough this morning, or yesterday, saying that he was discussing the use of nuclear weapons. that is scary to me. here to argue anything about his mental stability. i don't know about that. that, heay, related to

is purely unqualified. he's the least qualified person to be president that we have ever nominated. if you're a serious person you have to wonder about putting somebody in office regardless of their temperament who has not one day of experience in any branch of government. mark: would you rather trump win or lose? rep. weber: i would rather that he lose. i say that with great pain in my heart. i am a republican. my father was a republican. my grandfather was a president of the minnesota republicans and a will keep delicate -- wilke delegate. but the election of donald trump would not be bad or every country in the world but it would be disastrous for the republican party. john: last question. will you vote for hillary clinton? rep. weber: i don't know yet. i'm not going to vote for donald

trump. i listened to mitt romney the summer talk about why he would vote for a third party or independent candidate. i am waiting that. -- i am weighing that. i listen to the trump people consistently telling us this is a binary decision. if they convinced me of that, i will vote for hillary. be joined by now our friend tom rath. with us here is dancing or -- is dancin den senor. guess you haved been never trump all along. the question is what he will not go to which is what republicans are asking. is donald trump mentally and emotionally fit? >> temperamentally no. i think it is dangerous in the country. if you go back about 10 months

-- or even longer to his announcement that mexicans are rapists and then his attack on john mccain, there is a straight line between that and the events of this weekend. i'm struck by the republicans who are so shocked about his attacks on the con family. -- on the khan family. as though that is the inflection point. how is it any different? what we have seen is the consistency of his behavior. the idea that that will change as president of the united states -- there's no evidence. he has the changed his tune once. john: one more question. mentally, emotionally, temperamentally unfit to be president of the united states? >> not surprising that i agree with dan. one of the great job to the president is to be the comforter , the person who brings people together.

we had a great example with ronald reagan when something hit home here, when the challenger exploded, ronald reagan spoke to everybody. he had a capacity to bring them together. i don't think donald trump has that capacity. john: we will ask you about the above -- about the practical implications and the politics of all of that when we come back. you can listen to us on the radio on bloomberg radio. we will be right back. ♪

mark: we are back with our two big-brained republican strategists.

tom, all politics are local. nowhere more true than new hampshire. incumbent republican senator kelly i got. dull -- kelly ayotte. donald trump refused to endorse her and then a new poll comes out showing her 10 point behind and it all where kelly -- where trump is even further behind. i wish they had taken the pole after he refused to endorse or, because i think her numbers would be higher. it is a genuine concern. not to be totally lighthearted. his casting her a site really helps her. independence is prized in our senators. that is a pretty important republican independent seat. kelly ayotte fits that mold exactly. the numbers out today are frightening and scary, but don't

forget that there are three extra weeks in this so the bounce that goes up will settle some. new hampshire voters are very savvy and they can split tickets and they know where the candidates are that they are looking for. i believe that impact will go down and frankly as trump's numbers go down nationally, and he becomes less of a threat to win the presidency, the argument to electing kelly ayotte will help donald trump goes totally out the window. mark: that is a silver lining argument. what practical effect on republicans has there been, that you know, on republicans? dan: there is panic. i am hearing from more members from the house who say, maybe i should unendorse. i don't know if they will. think more things have to happen. whole number is have to really crash. by labor day, we could have

really bad poll numbers. -- the rnc is under resource, so there infrastructure in the state is under resource. the trunk campaign doesn't have real money. the polls are -- the trump campaign doesn't have real money. the polls are bad. seeing people speaking were aggressively? i'm not sure people will pull back their endorsements. >> paul ryan with the judge curiel things that you are a racist but i will still endorse you. he got dissed by trump this week. what would it take to get paul ryan to finally say that enough is enough? i am done with donald trump. dan: i don't know the answer to that question. he said today that his endorsement is not a blank check and he has been consistent. one could argue that this is not an unconditional endorsement.

he said that today. -- ihe is dealing with believe that trump is a danger to the country. i believe that statement needs to be made loud and clear. when that is made, it is difficult to stamp out the endorsement. what paul ryan and other republican leaders are dealing with is, regardless of who is president, it is really important that the house republicans have the majority. do you want mitch mcconnell and paul ryan in the room for either presidency? yes.nswer is probably they believe that real divisiveness will make that harder. i do not share that analysis. they will be just fine. i don't like it will have real applications for the house and senate republicans but that is what they are wrestling with. new hampshire was a great

state for trump in the nomination fight and a horrible state for clinton. what has caused this huge turnaround in your state? >> i think it is donald trump. he got 33%. that was a good number, but it is not 60%. there was a purity of time when presidency a trump was inconceivable, then it became possible. now that it is real, it is one people cannot put their arms around and except. secretary -- and accept. secretary clinton was able to pull the party together. but in the two of them, this is not an election at the moment sparking a great deal of and uzi is him. -- of enthusiasm. i think everybody else would rather have another choice. >> it is hard to think outside the borders of the granite state, but what the you think would be the tipping point when we would see mass defection from

donald trump? >> i think you're pretty close to it now. we have some time to play out between here and labor day. i do not think the word endorsement means a bloody thing. it is a question of whether they will run their own races, or if it will be a unified effort. fade intois will irrelevance. as we get closer to the real day, the candidates will run their own campaigns. i'm sure that there will be the noise of the presidential race. on the ground, it's not going to mean nearly as much as it does. mark: if trump started to do what he said he will do and talk about hillary and the economy, would it come people down? dan: yes, but it is really late. think of these moments where he can perform well and the polling looks better. we are already in august. i think it is really late.

most of the senate republican campaigns that are competitive are pretty well resourced. mcconnell and his super pac have raised a lot of money. the individual campaigns have raised money. these senate candidates are in good shape. even if trump collapses, which i think that he will, a lot of the senate republicans will hang on. ryan and the house republicans can hang onto the majority. expectationsd where many of us thought things would be at the top of the ticket. mark: the percentage that trump has of winning? dan: 30%. mark: tom rath? >> i am around 20%. dan: if you're are getting on a plane and the pilots at 20% chance of crashing, what would you say? get me off this plane. mark: we are closing on that.

next, we check in with one of the world's greatest political reporters. when we come back. ♪

pres. obama: all of us, at some point in our lives played sports, or in a school yard or a sandbox. theyimes as folks lose, start complaining that they got cheated. i never heard some he complain about being cheated before the game was over. or before the score was even tallied. outuggestion would be go there and try to win the

election. if mr. trump is up 10 to 15 points on election day and loses, then maybe he can raise some questions. that does not seem to be the case at the moment. obamathat was president at the pentagon press conference he held this afternoon answering questions about donald trump's recent digestion set the election may be rigged against him already. we are calling on our friends today to put this in context. mr. hollywood himself. "new york times" l.a. bureau chief. adam. you have covered a lot of elections. talk about this thing that trump is doing, trying to inoculate himself in advance. how does that stand out to you and your history of politics in terms of its unusualness? >> every time i see a word about

trump these days i see the word extraordinary. and trying to avoid that. -- i am trying to avoid that. i have become a little reluctant about trying to see the strategy. maybe there is one, maybe there is not. i have never seen a presidential candidate in advance try to spin his loss. you could argue that it is not good for democracy, but you do not want to signal to your supporters that you think that you might lose. on every level it is extraordinary. mark: in the overall context of , they'll have their turn in the barrel when they are being scrutinized and everything looks bad. that it is the other candidates turn. do you, they'll have their turn in the see an end for trump's time in the barrel? >> i will tell you why. it is so cyclical.

whatever you think of hillary clinton, she does seem to have an ability to let stuff rain down on her. i assume that something else will happen at some point. i've wondered if i were in a campaign, you would want to chart out week by week to make sure that your turn in the barrel is not the final week of the campaign. as you know, the media likes this come back story. it seems to me that it will be inevitable -- maybe not inevitable, because trump makes nothing inevitable, but probably inevitably that trump has found his rhythm and makes a pivot. i could see that happening. john: paul manafort and others were suggesting the following states would be in play. connecticut, oregon, maybe even california. do you think when they were saying those things that they were trying to bait the clinton campaign into putting resources in or where they deluded enough

to think those blue states were within donald trump's reach? >> i think it is more b then a. the idea that california would ever be in play is ridiculous. maybe there were doing it to appease the candidate himself. maybe they were fooling themselves. i do not think the clinton campaign, certainly in california and connecticut is gullible enough. -- ireacher i'm not seeing am pretty sure i am not. seeing clinton come back to california except to raise money. i do not think they are baitable on this. the california campaign struck me the most. the last time that a republican ran here was 1988. there is no reason to think it would change. the state has become more democratic. crazy,zy but, -- call me but trump's rhetoric on

immigration probably doesn't work in a state where hispanics are the majority. mark: the potential for trump to be hurting down ballot candidates. we are seeing that in some of the polling now. how much would trump be hurt if more republicans on the ballot abandoned him? unendorsed him or make clear they were not running as supporters of trump? >> i think that it would hurt trump more. you would see people -- republicans feeling empowered to walk away. republicans are partyline, lifelong republicans who have been reluctant. it enables them to walk away. i think that would be damaging. mark: what about the argument that he is the anti-establishment candidate? standing up to parties he would burnish his image with independents and republicans who do not like where the election is going? >> speaking off the top of my head, i don't think that's enough of the electorate.

i don't think trump has tried to expand beyond his base. what tom rath said earlier about new hampshire, he won new hampshire but he won 30% in a race with 16 people. i don't think trump has understood that this is a new electorate. that would not be enough to win election. trump's poll do numbers have to get for republicans en masse to say this is a lost cause i have defend for ourselves -- and we have to fend for ourselves? >> what you see today is him falling behind in key states. colorado would give me concern. if i see him pulling behind in arizona -- it is the state stuff we can be concerned about. if you saw a series of swing

states where he is trying to be insurmountable -- we are nowhere near that. we are not at labor day yet. mark: i have to cut you off, but i could listen to you all day. we will be right back. ♪

mark: a new wall street journal nbc news marist poll is out. another big lead for her. coming up on bloomberg west, square ceo. signing off until tomorrow. sayonara. ♪

♪ rishaad: it is friday, august the fifth. i am rishaad salamat. this is "trending business". ♪ we will take you to beijing, tokyo, and singapore. asian markets flat at the moment. brent crude holding above $44 a barrel. virgin australia on the way