tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 5, 2016 3:00pm-4:01pm EDT
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from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, good afternoon. david: we are covering stories from chicago to berlin. s&p 500 marching toward new highs and a better than forecast job reports out this morning. the september fed rate hike may be in the cards. taking for cities been on bmw in tesla, planning its own line of electric cars. but is this the right time to get into the market? david: shares of bristol meyer trading at their lowest in 16 years. vonnie: we are one hour from the close of trading. let's head to the market desk. >> on this payroll friday, we see that jump of 255,000 jobs
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rallying equities today. near session highs. as we have been for most of the .ay full's -- day the dow was up nearly 1% off its record highs for the the dow is points or so but s&p 500 and nasdaq on pace to close at record highs with about 59 minutes left to go in trading. you what has been happening in terms of the sector s&pth of the s&p list -- sectors here.
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symantec the second percent rise there. a deepere a bit of dive into the banks. financials seeing the biggest bump here. the majors are well up across the board. wells fargo the least of those. bank of america. , they are thee .umber 10 position, down 1.4% they are on pace to close at a six year low. the bond market, you would expect to rise in yields. that is what we are seeing. right now, the two-year end 10 year both up right now. we are pushing the 1.58% in terms of yield.
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this will be its biggest gain since late last year. supplies with what has been happening. vonnie: thank you. let's get a check on the headlines. : house speaker paul ryan says lawmakers will not vote this year on the sleeping asia-pacific trade deal backed by president obama. the republican is a longtime proponent of free trade the says the made -- the president made mistakes in negotiating deals with 11 other countries. hillary clinton planning to go big on political ads in the olympics. donald trump hasn't spent anything on tv ads since early may and has no time reserved as of now for the rest of the summer or fall.
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hundreds of analysts, law enforcement, special operations forces are on the ground in rio. larger military units are on standby. united nations diplomats say portugal's former prime minister the secret pull to succeed the attorney general. foreign minister moved from third to second place. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. let's get back to the
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strong u.s. job report. how did these two factor in with each other? what does this mean for gdp? get our next update on productivity next week. look for another lousy number because we have slow economic growth and fast job gains. that means low productivity. we can't separate the two so i disagree on that front. at hoursan do is look worked in the economy, a prophecy for gdp.
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what we see is aggregate hours in the gdp report actually increased about half a percentage point in july and that puts them on a solid trajectory for the quarter as a whole. that tells you that gdp is accelerating going into the back half of the year. the question is is it accelerating enough so the forecasts can remain intact and given the lousy performance in the past, we will have to see stellar growth in the second half of the year. vonnie: you can see aggregate hours worked versus gdp. >> the uptrend tells you things are improving.
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>> most economists will say this'll have to be in inventory rebuild. there will have to be changes. >> i don't know if we get the inventory rebound just yet. willme point, producers have to ramp up production to satisfy demand. >> we need to see the improvement in demand. david: let's talk a bit about the fed. forecasting now a rate rise in december. what is your sense for what this could mean for policymakers? >> it was a real risk the labor market was succumbing to the weakness we have seen in gdp. we cannot sound the all clear
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just yet. that is what policymakers will remain on hold. if we continue to see job gains pushing the unemployment rate , we should see the unemployment rate continued to grind lower and that means more wage inflation, which will mean more consumer inflation and that will keep the fed in play later this year. i think a december increase is a likely possibility. i think it will be a different dynamic next year. consumer spending will be stronger than what we have been accustomed to. that means the fed will have more leeway to tighten at a faster pace. i will show you the
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works function. definitely a different number there monday. >> the moving party or could be next friday. now we see strong job growth. people will start to reevaluate. people are spending and dipping into savings. savings went up and we are seeing the oil dividend. >> there was a dip of savings in q2.
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if we look at the last few years, and 2014, personal income growth was about 6%. in 2015, 4%. as of june, 3%. we see this deceleration. job gains like these accompanied by an increase in average hours worked and average are really earnings tell us may be that income trend is turning higher. if it doesn't, all bets are off. david: put this in the context of the campaign. you will be paying attention to the speech i imagine monday donald trump will give. what will you be listening for? >> it will have to do with what you highlighted about stephen moore's comments about how it doesn't feel like a strong economy because we've had this continuing slack in the labor
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market. we talked about the misery index or how households are feeling about the economy being significant as to how they make up their minds at the polls. ,hen misery is declining unemployment is falling or voterson is falling, tend to reward the incumbent party and that is very much where we are right now. inflation is a lagging indicator so until we have growth steadily above trend, inflation will not turn higher so we continue flatlining on inflation and the unemployment rate grinding lower and they should create a sense that the economy is improving despite the campaign rhetoric. thank you. you can look like -- look that up on your bloomberg. ,oming up on bloomberg market shares of bristol meyer shares plunge.
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david: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at the bigness -- biggest stories in the news. challenging mergers among for the biggest health insurers. that improves the odds for rulings on both tieups by the end of the year and reduces chance they could follow part beforehand. the u.s. district judge is keeping the case for the deal against humana. vonnie: one million shares of
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amazon.com sold this week. that according to a filing with the fec. that takes sales to one point $4 billion in 2016 alone. shares of the online retailer up 30% this year. david: a potential sale could value the treatment at $500 million. valeant declined to comment. that is your business flash update. a company said a drug for lung cancer failed clinical trials. if you take a look, you can see how shares plunged.
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is cynthia.ow tell us about the drug and what exactly happened in the trials. studyan interesting case in how you design your trials. bristol's a case of work drugs necessarily. it's that bristol try to target the biggest population. that group was known to be a better responder to this type of shownnd merck's data has that drug works in the small patient population. if bristol had done the result, it would have a tremendous because it would have made them the leading therapy for first-line lung cancer, a big patient population. it would have represented a big advance for lung cancer.
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it didn't show that. that's not necessarily completely unsurprising. they were trying to do something different but it turns their fortunes around because it's all about who gets there first. the company that gets into a market first is under the mind of the doctors. david: how tightly had bristol launched -- latched its wagon to this? bristol has begun so uniformly focused on in the no oncology and moved out of so many other disease areas. even small hick ups this development plan are going to be bigger problems for them. .hey had a lot more going on bristol has chosen this strategy. i spoke to them today and they are confident with the strategy and will not change it from what i can see but it shows the risk that investors have to weigh up when they look at companies like this. it's not a diverse pharma
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company. vonnie: one analyst you spoke with said it was the biggest clinical surprise of his career. they really are trying to do something good here. they will continue with that strategy and go back to some part of the drawing board and continue on? >> they want to look at combinations. they are the first company to ever have a combination of crews of two different immunotherapies. these drugs have very high price tags. or still has proceeded. there hasn't been a lot of competition in this space. they will continue to look at .ombinations that is the real question. -- how do you get the broad affect? that is what bristol is looking for. it will be a few more years
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before we know. are investors faulting this company for managing expectations wrongly? >> i think investor expectations for this company was unbelievable. they have been trading at a high price and above there are group and that has been going on for a while. i'm not sure what investors put so much talk into immunotherapy because it will be such a competitive field. this idea that bristol may get there first but there will still be so much competition. there's been a little more skepticism introduced recently. we will see them continue to come back down to earth but this has been a story with high expectations. it's particularly
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dramatic today but mark will -- that will be some normalization here. but it'srising digestible. it's not as though this is the end of bristol's ability. there is room for more than one drug. david: thank you. still ahead, wall street's fear gauge. the volatility index and today's option inside. we look same and how -- the prop -- we will examine the prophet of this year's relative calm. ♪
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sebastian, managing partner at options pits in joins me from chicago. taking a look at what is happening today. the jobs data came in. they were stellar. the nasdaq and s&p on track for record highs but it been a very active august. what is your take so far? >> it has been an active august but where how we really gone other then crawled a little higher from where we started the month? volatility is really coming in. the s&p is broken out. it had been stuck around the 20 70's. that was looking like resistance. with this perfect nonfarm number , wages grew but not too fast, it was kind of the perfect number. saw a little uptake in the percentage chance of a rate hike this year but not much.
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that is giving equity markets free reign to rally higher. so i think if you look at the way the s&p is moving, we will make a run at 2200 and from there, who knows? i think we will crack that and head north to the other the month. >> pretty amazing considering how this was going in last year. talk to me about the fix. i was taking a look at it and it's down near session lows. do you think we will hold onto that through the end of the month? >> i think it could go lower. have the standard august settlement around august 17. we might be looking at the lowest cell since pre-2008 crisis. a could the us edelman with 10 handle. i'm surprised we don't have a fix with a 10 handle right now.
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i would be less than shocked to see that next week. get a little bit of buying in the close. there will not be a lot of fireworks next week. the brakes could creep lower and lower and lower. a lot of people don't realize a low fixed tends to breed more low breaks. the vicks could see potentially settle below 11, maybe even 10 this cycle. >> you were looking at the vicks for your trade. walk us through that. with the august future is still trading closer to 13 then 11.5. i like buying the 11.5 puts for about $.15, selling the 10.5 put at three cents. i have this trade on in my hedge fund.
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i expect with the settling lower $.40,his could be worth $.50 by the time we get to the end of next week as i think that august future will be trading below 12 this time friday. >> thank you so much. maybe the vicks falling. interesting stuff there. still ahead, mercedes-benz is charging ahead and ready to take on the m w and tesla with its own line of electric cars. this is bloomberg.
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headlines on bloomberg first world news. mark crumpton has more. more: donald trump making a rare admission he is wrong in claiming he saw video of a u.s. cash payment going to iran. plane ieeted today "the saw today was the hostage plane in switzerland, not the plane carrying 400 million in cash going to iran. trump said wednesday he saw video of the money being delivered. republican presidential nominee trump is expected to endorse house speaker paul ryan tonight. fox news citing two unidentified republicans. a person familiar with the matter tells bloomberg ryan has no knowledge of any endorse a plan. ryan's primary contest is tuesday. the yuan refugee agency says it has received reports islamic
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state may have captured up to 3000 iraqis fleeing violence. 12 of them may have been killed. u.s. officials say they were still trying to verify the information. clearhics committee as president gianni of alleged misconduct related to the use of private flights. an internal even the most dead he took flight from the governments of world cup host russia and cutter. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 26 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: markets close in just under 30 minutes. let's go to the nasdaq were abigail is standing by. >> and maybe a summer friday but it's anything but doll here for the nasdaq index on the merger putting in a record closing high. it will do so if the nasdaq closes above 5219.
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18.8 59. right down to the wire but we know it appears the nasdaq has already put in a weekly record high earlier today of 5227 and appears on track to put in a weekly record close. you wouldn't be surprised to hear the nasdaq is on pace to finish higher in the week by 1%. this will be the sixth weekly higher close in a row. lots of bullish action here for the net that falls that behind this week's strengths, we are looking at docs from all different maps. the top overall winner on the week appears to be biogenic. it is the top performer in the .asdaq 100 really performing on both levels. it's not really related to earnings at all.
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bloomberg intelligence estimating this could add a 150 million revenue bump for biogenic in 2017. earlier this week, the washington journal was reporting biogenic could he a takeover candidate. lots of strength there for biogenic on the week. top pointe of the boost for the nasdaq this week, up 2% on the week. the company did put up a great second quarter earnings, beating estimates abide got 20%. it looks like deutsche bank has updated shares. they had a price target on craft time shares of what hundred three dollars per share, suggesting the stock could rise more than 15% from current levels. >> it's a mostly her to see a ketchup maker on the nasdaq.
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what about the plain vanilla tech stocks? who are the big winners? >> my producer and i were talking before. i was saying i know matt will want to have a tech winner so here are a few for you for we are looking at apple and face book. from a percentage standpoint, shares are higher on the week, up 4%. priceline did put up a solid second-quarter earnings report. they did offer a better than expected third-quarter around booking, saying bookings would grow between 14 to 19%. brian fitzgerald at jefferies has played also. targeteet high price suggesting the stock could see
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upside potential of more than 20%. >> very much appreciated. that's according to people familiar with the plan who declined to be identified. we are going to identify jamie, running the auto coverage for us out of detroit. think you for coming on the show. first of all about mercedes getting into the game in what seems like a late fashion here. gm has the bold. bmw has the eye three. why so long? >> i think a lot of the german automakers were very committed to do so. they have been championing for 100 years. even five or 10 years ago when tesla was first getting going,
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still didn't look economical. the company still loses money and it's expensive to do these big batteries that make the car .rives as we would expect since then, because has calmed down and the cost of doing diesel has gotten higher since volkswagen scandal. it's gotten a lot tougher to sell diesel cars in this market and other places around the world. other companies besides tesla are doing electric cars. how have they done? are people interested in those other ones or are they hang i'm going to buy an electric car, why not get a tesla? this action inof california, which requires a certain amount of electric vehicles to be sold to me there zero emission standards.
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electric cars.ns tesla has had great success and a better chance of making money because their prices are high because they are a luxury car maker. that is where mercedes or bmw might have a writing chance and they can command a high price. it's so much harder for chevy or all that make up for cost of development and the cost of the batteries. joe: we should point out most every brand has an all electric model. ford has the plug-in. nissan has the plug-in but those were original combustion cars fitted with batteries. something like the chevy volt will be built from the ground up and that cost at least $1 billion to design a new car from start to finish.
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>> especially with the new power trainers. you're probably talking one billion to get anything going. but that is once again where the established players are where we may be being a turning point in electric. these big companies that are well established and already have aliens of dollars and make billions of dollars can funnel that into the new technology to ready pollution and be for whatever future the regulators will allow. matt: since mercedes has been the holdout here, what is the strategy and getting into this market? is it going to make its own version of the electric vehicle? or is it going to try to reinvent this category? >> we will see. products are still being developed and are on their way to coming out but what we do
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know is they are coming at it with a full lineup full's that they are talking are ready about two cars, two suvs, a work truck , that is like tessa's five-year plan. they are going from zero to 100. they are coming at it hard. they have got the resources and are putting them to work. joe: thank you very much. scarlet: coming up, we hear from the ceo of angie's list about today's that are than estimated jobs report. 255,000 jobs added in july. this is bloomberg.
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scarlet: time for the bloomberg business flash. the u.s. is asking a federal reconsider itso decision to toss out a one point 3 billion dollar judgment against bank of america's countrywide unit. officials think the panel looked over a wealth of evidence. ac milan is the latest european club to be taken over by chinese owners. the deal values the club at around $820 million. suicide squad is getting roughed up by critics by getting plenty
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of support from moviegoers. million.took in $20.5 record pokeraugust -- holder was guardians of the galaxy. that is her business flash update. nearly a third of the 250 5000 job gains in july came from professional services, including the coveted tech jobs. joined of angie's list bloomberg earlier today and begin by talking about the jobs data. >> it was a good report. i would have been concerned if it was less than 190,000 new iss with 21 55,000 particularly not a concern when you put it next to the report that came out last friday with
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the slow gdp growth. you go a little bit deeper and it's not enough to stand up and cheer and make me say i will go on a hiring craze and that's because productivity is flat. if you look at the actual disposable income that is implied in these numbers, it is not materially moving up in a way that would get you excited about expansion. it takes away what could be a cause for concern. >> how is is reflecting what is going on in the jobs economy right now? what do you see the coming listed more? is seeing robust demand. you cannot just read into that and say it's a great economy because angie's list does well in down cycles and up cycles. and down cycles, people do smaller jobs and try to make the most out of their current home. they will do repairs,
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renovations. robustifferent in a economy where the nature of the services shift toward -- bigger expansions and renovations, bigger jobs. when i look at the mix of services we are selling, it's moving modestly toward more of a recessionary type of a mix. but it doesn't change the overall volume, it just changes -- >> what do you mean by recessionary type of mix? >> i just mean that it puts homeowners much more into a mindset of really try to make the most out of their existing ,ome, doing painting jobs repair work around the house. it might turn a basement into a next her bedroom.
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david: indiana became subject to a wider focus when donald trump picked mike pence to be his running mate. indianapolis going at a pace of 18%. nationwide, it's 6%. what is it about indiana and the structure of the economy that is encouraging that kind of growth and do you think from your perspective, there is something going on that is -- can be replicated nationwide? >> ndn overall is a great environment for business expansion. -- indiana overall is a great environment for business expansion. you have a close relationship with the university, tax incentives, with the trade schools. it's a cluster that really has a lot of the key elements you need
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to grow, particularly for a technology company. is there any way angie's list data could help that way in the term of the tour ships or the german model where you train with someone for a couple years? >> we're doing a fair bit of .hat we articulated the pacific -- specific skills we are looking to hire. we are hiring in those areas for the we have been hiring in technology and sales and we are hiring in specific skills that we communicate and are able to draw upon from those different institutions. >> there are some startups i see for example trying to get into the space.
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>> we communicated a profitable growth plan to investors in march that laid out a five-year view for how we would turn around and grow the company. executing to the letter the milestones we have committed to. we have been seeing 700,000 new members enjoying angie's list really in just about a month. we have seen great consumer engagements and the challenge will be to drive that in two new revenues. i'm quite optimistic about the prospects for that. >> how are you positioning the company? would you consider selling at some point? you said you had some offers at some point. >> we are a public company so we have to be open to value creation opportunities but we are focused on executing our profitable growth plan and it could not be off to a stronger start.
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buffett said they would be a steal. the yellow horizontal line is the 1.2 price to book ratio. they said they would buy back shares at the prices were valued at 1.2 or below. we got pretty close in january of this year before we rebounded. here,ing that interesting warren buffett announced share buyback programs. they bought that stat -- stocks three times since then. they didn't want to get real but they wanted to exit the large holdings they have held onto for decades. however bounced
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right at the 1.2 line in december. it looks like that level seems to have some residents -- residents. scarlet: they have specifically talked about that 1.2 level. i was told the reason berkshire announced its earnings friday afternoon because the company is so complicated. it has businesses, railways, machine parts, but analysts need some time to really study it. joe: i always thought it was because warren buffett disdain the quarterly earnings incomes. that was my assumption but i guess it was wrong. matt: just a caring move. we will give you the weekend. if you have the weekend to think about your bristol-myers holdings, it will not be a pleasant weekend for you. i have a chart that shows bristol-myers in white and work shares in blue -- merck shares
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in blue. there is no significance to the fact they meet in the middle, it's just interesting. scarlet: earlier today, they had it. matt: no significance. totally arbitrary. onyou were on a k i function the bristol-myers grid, i will go ahead and do it now. you can do it for any equity. it gives you the cliff notes look at any stock. you will see when you scroll reallyumber 28 is important to this company and they had been showing rising sales. 7.7% gain in june. analysts estimated 432% of year 18.n fiscal
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the stock absolutely crushed. analystssting k i say expect 28% compounded annual growth rate for their eps over the next three years even though you look over the past five years, it's been -1%. optimistic analysts. jobs reportthe today and it was really good all around. no one could find any weak aspect of it. usually there's something people .2 but in th case, solid. point to but in this case, solid. the fastest growth since april. we also saw the 2.6 percent year-over-year increase. all kinds of good numbers. it all just keeps sort of trending up. as the labor market gets tighter, wages are rising.
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straight month, economist are completely off when it comes to their estimates for where the job number is. if theye no idea so don't have any idea, does the fed have a better idea? matt: it's a long-term trend you look at. they could be off by 200,000 in either direction. riccadonna this morning said we have 122 million workers in the private sector. take a screenshot of this, viewers. 122 million workers adding 0.1 hours a week is like adding 1392 years of work each week. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> u.s. stocks closing higher and nasdaq and itching and record highs. what'd youestion is miss? -- let: joe: a blowout jobs report for july. an economist to claims low skilled labor force will lead a recovery. we dig into their economy and what to expect from their central bank. scarlet: we begin with our market minute. a blockbuster july jobs report means the nasdaq and dow closed at record highs. financial and technology leading the way.
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