mark: with all due respect to the nation's fact checkers, make sure you get this one exactly right. mr. trump: i don't throw babies out, believe me, i love babies. mark: on our event schedule the backstroke and the e-mail server -- first, the gold medal event, donald trump and mike pence are taking the torch to green bay wisconsin for an evening rally. but you won't see any badger state gold medalists there -- they all plan to skip the event because they have prior

engagements. the national party chairman, reince priebus, is not planning to attend. he does intend to accompany trump to a series of finance events over the weekend. he is not avoiding his nominee. if you are a republican who has been in panic mode, there is mildly good news today. trump appears to be trying to make a correction. listen to what he had to say in des moines, iowa, at a rally this afternoon when he got back on track criticizing barack obama and hillary clinton. mr. trump: i wrote up some points, and it concerns her and it concerns president obama who is doing a terrible job, terrible job. you look at what is going on in our country and you see what is happening, but i thought i would discuss this because we know

hillary, i know hillary, and it is interesting. did it this morning. unstable, hillary clinton. lacks the judgment, temperament and moral character to lead this country. i was the first one, i believe, to use the word unfit in referring to her. now they use it on me. i always thought i was extremely fit. in fact, all of my life i have been told you have the greatest temperament because you go through pressure. you have to be able to handle pressure. she cannot handle pressure. mark: there is a man trying to stay on track today. also brought an uncharacteristic admission, an error by the candidate. sharp press releases criticizing hillary clinton. during tonight's rally, trump is expected to for real endorse paul ryan. jennifer jacobs is with us tonight.

second, want to ask you, what is all of this a sign of, and what could it lead to for the trump campaign? jennifer: donald trump knows how to read a poll. he knows that paul ryan is going to win. trump has no hand in it, that reflects poorly on donald trump. if he does endorse paul ryan, the sound of him swallow his pride will be like the sound of guzzling at a college beer bong party. mark: not sure what that sounds like but does his endorsement of ryan make it seem like it never happened at all? is there any residue of this that will hurt the trump campaign? jennifer: it is embarrassing that paul ryan is not going to be there. that send a signal he does not want to be seen next to the nominee. there still is that sting there, but i no republicans will appreciate the fact that trump does it -- it freshens up that feelings republican had two weeks ago when everyone came out

of cleveland with locked arms. mark: they left cleveland as united as republican party with donald trump as a nominee could be. the ted cruz thing helped trump in a way, for sure. i think that not that long ago, like in a day and a half, people rethinking thinking the party was about to come crashing down. tonight's event, despite the absence of all those people if he endorses, they are somewhat back on track and they have survived this week without mass defections of any sort. they have lost a handful of people, some elected and some not. i think that clearly a lot went on today with the trump debate, to get them to go out and read that statement and as you suggested, nothing is going to be bracing for him as a series of polls showing he's behind. jennifer: remember, these two candidates, mike pence and

donald trump, squandered the two sides of the party. when you have got trump talking about paul ryan, i'm not sure if i can support him, when he mentioned paul ryan's name at one of his rallies in florida, there were boos. the audience ate that up. you have got one candidate, trump, the kennedy of the people. and mike pence the candidate of the gop elite. trump can speak to the people and pence comes and soothes the nerves. trump can say something about the kahn family and that -- rebounds as some of the people and then pence comes in. mark: this is this issue, that trump does not like to be criticized. if he held out his endorsement from ryan, maybe that would send the message, do not criticize him. now he runs the risk of people saying -- of them being critical of him again and that is a dynamic he does not like.

as we said, today donald trump did something we do not associate with him. he admitted he made an error. we're talking about that fabled, aka alleged video tape, showing that secretly delivered $400 million to iran. the delivery is often the allegations of cash for hostages has been a talking point for republicans all week. a good opportunity for trump to criticize hillary clinton and barack obama over foreign policy. instead, let's get you caught up. >> donald trump. here's what happened. >> the wall street journal went up with a stunning start. >> they report $400 million in cash was sent to iran. >> republicans join in. fox is on it. >> your got the hostages landed in geneva. mr. trump: they have the perfect tape. it was the perfect angle, nice and steady. >> what tape? the washington post is set, do you mean this tape? there is no tape.

late thursday, remember that tape? the tape his campaign does not exist was provided by iran to and there is him. surrogates are questioned. >> why does donald trump keep bringing this video up? >> i mean, that b roll did look like a secret cash drop. >> that is what i thought i was seeing. >> friday morning, trump tweets ok, it was the hostage plane. excavation point. it's all over tv. >> is it all cleared up? >> no. mark: unusual for trump to tweet a correction. he did not fall on his sword but he did acknowledge his error.

where does that -- what does that say about where he stands with his campaign and where does we think this leaves us? jennifer: he's willing to listen to all those in flash and republicans who say take control of the wheel and avoid the cliff. one of the interesting things that happened at one of his rallies in florida, he showed his cards about why he is running for president. he talked about how much he loves it. it makes them feel 20 years younger, and he talks about how he loves hearing that chorus from the crowd of them calling his name. then he caught himself and said, but the reason i'm running is to make america great. that give us some insight into his thinking. there have been some donors who have been reaching out to the senior staff, it wasn't easy to get ahold of some of them this

week, they were underground, but donors have been sending text messages and saying very gently, look, this messiah complex thing he has got going on is not helping us. he can't look like he is infallible. mark: there is no benefit in talking about this nonexistent video. i will say people -- the current narrative, based on the polls, based on his poor performance and attacking the kahns, people are underestimated the degree to which this guy is competitive and does not like to be embarrassed. this is an embarrassing week for him. the tweet was a way to move that narrative away and the reality is the press is open to the narrative now of trump fixing things. today was baby steps, and he has got a world of hurt with the polls and other issues, but baby steps to show he can do things to turn the page. jennifer: one quick note. he did not say he was mistaken. he did not say, i'm wrong. he carefully said, which plane he was talking about, but it was a very interesting way of avoiding -- mark: baby steps. coming up, we have got binders full of men after these words

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mark: ooh-gah. today, the monthly jobs report showed an increase of 255,000 jobs. the unemployment rate stayed even at 4.9%. on the official halperin -- barometer, 4 out of 5 possible boppos. trump campaign is painting in a different way. stephen miller points out the recent 1.2 gdp statistics and says the country is "in the middle of the single worst recovery since the great depression."

given the last two months of jobs data -- and the exclamation point of today's report, can hillary clinton go from emphasizing as she has been there's more work to do, to more of a happy days are here again message? jennifer: she can more easily refute trump if he says the obama economy is bad. although with e trump campaign they are so good at avoiding bad news and spinning things -- they have got this eternal sunshine thing going on. stephen miller was arguing they could talk about the gdp report. they can also go back and talk about the under unemployment rate, those people who are only working part-time. they should be working full-time and talk about that. that ticked up a teensy weensy little bit. it definitely makes it harder for him to insult the obama economy. mark: growth rates are not

great, and people's long-term anxiety is still high. the long track record is still high. this does give her a big talking point. there is nothing bigger than the jobs number. and the notion of wages ticking up a bit. i do think, for all the superficiality of this race, i still think if either of these candidates can convince people they have got ideas for making the economy better, they will have a huge leg up in the race. so, i do not think it is enough for donald trump to be negative about the economy. i do not think it is enough for hillary clinton to become more bullish. they have to have more ideas. jennifer: who on the trump side is talking about jobs? donald trump has made this race about his -- his personality. mark: the one thing i will say as we close this thing is this is a huge thing for the clinton campaign. they want some optimistic things. they would like her to be more optimistic and about the

president's record makes it easier. on the economy today, the trump campaign announced an economic advisory council consisting of 13 people. you can't spell advisory without a y as in y chromosome which can be found in every single member of trump's council. yes, ahead of his planned economic speech on monday, trump unveiled a diverse roster of all men, include tom barack, and u.s.-china trade relations expert peter navarro, and the chief economist of the heritage foundation stephen moore. on bloomberg today, moore said a broader list does include some women. we were unable to locate that list. kind of incredible in this day and age to put out a list of advisors of all men, but what does the ideological makeup and background of this team say about trump's economic orientation? jennifer: it is an interesting

group of people. all of them are very successful in business or in their field. not all of them are yes men. some of them have been critical of donald trump. for example, who is it, stephen moore has been critical of trump for calling for high tariffs for china. you have got dan daniko he used to be trump's trade advisor who has praised nafta. he does not think that free trade is a bad thing but he stresses manufacturing, keeping manufacturing in the united states. a lot of these guys are friends of trump, donors. like tom barack -- they did real estate deals together in the 1980's. they were one of the early supporters of the trump super pac. he has an interesting philosophical outlook. in an interview, he talked about how hillary clinton is a very

competent person. and he also said, listen, i am liberal on social issues. i am a lame republican. you have got an interesting mix of ideological philosophies from these guys. mark: the most striking thing is only one guy with an academic background. it is basically people in finance and services who are trump types. they are strong world, business people with little or no government experience who want to make america great again and who believe the private sector needs to be unshackled. i think it is the gender, lack of diversity notwithstanding, it is a good signal to the public of the kind of people trump would bring to the government, people who do not know how government works that he will try to change things like trump. move over strong bad. it is time for hillary clinton's emails. secretary clinton gave a talk today at the national association of black journalists and hispanic journalists in washington, d.c., where the two groups convened. she took a few questions from some of the journalists, include

kristen welker pgs about clinton's comment to chris wallace suggesting the fbi director james comey had vouched for her truthiness regarding her e-mail practices. that comment earned her some bad reviews, including "the washington post" giving her its maximum number of pinocchios. today, clinton was given a chance to clarify and clean up what she said over the weekend when kristen welker asked the follow up. she took the opportunity. mrs. clinton: i may have short-circuited, and for that, i will try to clarify because i think chris wallace and i were probably talking past each other because of course, he could only talk to what i had told the fbi, and i appreciated that. now, i have eight knowledge repeatedly that using two e-mail accounts was a mistake. and i take responsibility for

that. but i do think having him say that my answers to the fbi were truthful and then i should quickly add what i said was consistent with what i had said publicly. and that's really sort of in my view trying to tie both ends together. mark: that did not do much to clarify. she continues to be purposely not addressing some of the tougher things comey said. she is clinging to the is called the tory stuff that comey stuff --clinging to the esculpatory stuff. failed to address the question of what she said in public. the question is, why is she leaving yourself open to dragging this out more? jennifer: that was certainly some words. but as the democrats can argue, listen, maybe she has set a couple of things that were not exactly accurate, but they can

argue, this week that trump has completely stepped on that opportunity to come at her. after anything she says failed -- pales in comparison to the week that trump has had, where he has said joking, not joking he thought that baby was annoying. and talking about anyone who sexually harassed should switch careers are not endorsing paul ryan in saying john mccain has not been good to the veterans. american should pull their money out of 401k's. mark: she is counting on the press getting tired of plowing the same ground, that the public will lose interest, and they continue to believe it saying i'm sorry, i made a mistake i should not have done it is enough. i still think she is not addressed -- what she thinks she did wrong. and that relates to the question of comey's criticism. it is not clear to me if people are going to keep asking her about it, but today's answer, we'll see if "post" trots out

pinocchio again. today's answer was more of the same. particular because he did not address her public statements, which is our biggest concern for the public than what she might have told the fbi behind closed doors. coming up, donald trump's big wisconsin rally and what it means for your weekend plans. traffic and weather together right after this. ♪

mark: calling in the brave brain strategist. joining us now, and rogers, republican, worked in the office of political affairs for ronald reagan. and from los angeles, bill cara quirk with senator 10 kennedy, -- ted kennedy and chuck schumer

many more. thank you for joining us. bill, if hillary clinton called you tonight and says i know i've had a great week. trump has had a horrible week. what should i be worried about? what would you tell her? >> the big thing they're going to have to worry about is the trump's chances of getting a rebound are pretty low between now and labor day. they have to be ready for the debates. 270 electoral college votes, 270 minutes of debate. so, they just have to be ready for that because that is going to be trump's only chance to get back in this game. mark: ed, you are voting for trump, right? >> no. mark: who are you voting for? >> i'm a non-trump supporter. i'm a good republican. i am not going to vote for hillary. trump has not met me halfway yet. mark: so you might vote for trump. >> well, the possibilities are

becoming less likely and the scenarios are more remote, but i'm not never trump. something could happen. mark: give me one example. if he called you and said i saw you on "with all due respect," i want your vote. >> you need to be sane and mute for a while. let us all rest and reflect. jennifer: what about you, what would you tell him? >> i agree with ed. there is a talk show host, doug mcintyre, has a great phrase for trump -- he has political tourette's. he's just got to shut up. these things that he throws out there every other day, they cause enormous distraction and trouble. if he does not figure out how to stop that, he is going to really get clobbered. >> in that regard, if he were just quiet and the economy became the issue, and the, something happened in the

national security realm and hillary's inability, she's boxed herself in, she cannot ring the alarm about the economy, and she has bought into all things obama, she cannot ring the alarm, trump could be standing there where people say things could not get any worse. let's give this guy a chance. if he could just be quiet, that could happen. i'm not sure it is desirable but it could happen. >> i am not sure it is possible. that's the problem, it's probably not possible. >> doesn't look that way. jennifer: do you guys believe the polls? if the election were tomorrow, who do you think would win? >> hillary. >> hillary, definitely. >> the story of 2016 -- sorry. >> this is one case where the national polls are probably more useful in terms of information than some of the state polls.

i think the trend nationally is pretty clear. you begin to see a filter down when you start having polls with hillary ahead in georgia and arizona. this is a national race and it's hers right now. >> the story of 2016 so far -- i hope it will be in mark halperin's next book -- the polls have been right. i went around for a year in 2015 saying everybody ignore the polls. trump can't win. mark: guys, we are going to talk about down ballot races with bill carrick and ed rogers right after this. ♪

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mark: jennifer jacobs and i back here with ed rogers and bill carrick. it seems clear there are going to be some more republicans who, based on their sense of what is right and the politics, want to distance themselves from donald trump. we've seen a couple do that already. if you are a client money for house or senate who said i want more distance from trump. what's the best way to do that and message that? ed: everybody is sort of struggling with what the right decoupling formula is from trump. it depends on the state where you are running. it is different in arizona than it is in pennsylvania, ohio, etc. everybody is dealing with that , but nobody wants to have a rupture with the core of the trump supporter because they are the core republican, the first 35% of any republican's vote are trump supporters. so there is no easy formula. there is no easy way to do it,

but i think this week you did get into an era where it is every man for himself in a good way for republicans. there is no longer any pressure to be for trump. there is pressure to figure out how to accommodate the reality of trump, but everybody is looking like for that decoupling formula. mark: bill, if you are ted strickland and ohio are making a -- in new hampshire, what is the best way to tie your republican opponent to trump? bill: well, i think you are going to have to do it on the big picture issues, the economy and national security. that's obvious. i think, as a democrat, you could get carried away with this idea of linking trump to your opponent. i think in some cases, that is going to do all the damage it is going to do organically. pushing that as an issue in the campaign, using it in your paid communications, that kind

of thing, that might not be the smartest move to make. jennifer: bill, the idea that donald trump is a drag on some people, in the swing states, which state is that affect happening the most pronounced? bill: the battleground states are going to have, the ones where there is a contested senate race and a very contested campaign at the presidential level, so ohio and pennsylvania i think that is really a big , deal in both those places because the campaign is going to be so present. probably in new hampshire as well. i think in illinois, just because it is such a strong blue state, it will be a real drag on mark kirk. jennifer: do you agree with that, ed? ed: yeah. mark kirk has got a headwind. ron johnson in wisconsin has a headwind, probably less severe than illinois, but the bull's-eye here for trump and for the republican senate is

going to mostly be pennsylvania and ohio. and that's going to be the toughest place to negotiate the presence of trump versus a must-win senate race. mark: ed there seems to be no , doubt -- go ahead, bill. bill: i was just going to say the one thing about, pennsylvania and ohio are now going to be all hands on board for trump, because virginia and north carolina are so bad. i mean, he's just losing in places that are going to make the pressure more intense on pennsylvania and ohio. mark: ed, it seems like donald trump is doing a very good job of uniting the democratic party. why is hillary clinton not providing that same service to the republicans right now, or so it seems to me? ed: well, she has not broken through in a while. she is a good uniter for republicans but trump seems to , be stepping on any news that would remind us of the very things we like the least about

hillary and remind the broader electorate as a matter of fact. if this race is about trump, he loses. if this races about hillary, she loses. and, can trump let the bad economy takeover? can he let hillary be front and center? can he just be neutral for a while and see what happens? so far, he cannot -- bill: the one thing about -- mark: go ahead, bill. bill: the one thing about hillary was voter start moving towards her. we see the head-to-head is moving faster than the edge of youth below that. voters will reconcile their support for her as a vote with their feelings about her. they just will. there will not continue to be this contention between saying you are going to vote for her and having negative feelings about her. they will reconcile and it will become positive feelings and a vote for her. ed: i saw one of the network

polls today were she has a healthy lead and the head-to-head, yet by four or five points people trust him to deal more effectively with economy than they do her. i think bill is right, those two things will reconcile, but certainly not trump people notice that. if they have any sense at all, they will try to exploit it. mark: summer vacation, the olympics, is it possible for trump to make up ground in august, or does he have to wait until after labor day to have any meaningful closing of the gap? bill: i think it is very hard to do. i really do. she's got an advantage in paid media. she will have more ads in the battleground states. so you at that into it. if somebody can figure out the scheduling process in the trump campaign, we may have the secret to the problem because they continue to go to odd places, which do not help them, either. i think it is very tough for them to make up any ground between now and labor day.

mark: ed, if there is one state where trump can makeup ground beside ohio, what would it be? ed: maybe new hampshire. mark: yeah, symbolically important. ed: virginia, north carolina. if he had some sort of strong heartbeat there, i think that would be a good sign. mark: ok. bill carrick and ed rogers. thank you for coming in. enjoy your weekend. coming up, a look at what the clinton campaign seems to be working to capitalize on trump's bad week. we talk to two of our colleagues. if you're watching in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio radio on bloomberg 99.1 f.m. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: welcome back.

joining us now "washington post" political correspondent -- and nbc correspondent katie terr who covers the trump campaign. as the clinton campaign had a happy week, what's on their to-do list for the month of august? >> beyond going on vacation, which we expect hillary clinton to do the latter part of the month, really to try to stay out of the way of donald trump as much as possible if what he's going to do is do damage to himself. they really hope that the last week or so is a trajectory they can hold onto where republicans are peeling off from trump and either endorsing her or saying they cannot support him, either of those things the clinton campaign will take. and just sort of continuing to get her jobs message out and not

trying to make any big moves of her own. that will be what they do for the rest of the month. mark: do we know she is going to the hamptons? is that where vacation is going to be. >> martha's vineyard is the most likely location. there were some fundraisers there. mark: katie, within the campaign today, the communications director did a radio interview where he said we had a pretty good week in some ways. is there panic and concern that they need to have a dramatic change in the way the campaign is going or grind it out with battleground state rallies and trump being more disciplined? >> i am not hearing panic within the campaign. donald trump has gone from controversy to controversy. this is not an unusual position for the campaign to bn. they have become a bill be used to it. they are trying to spin this has been a bad week for hillary clinton. jason miller said the same thing to me repeatedly. the reality is donald trump is

down in a lot of battleground state calls, you guys know this, significantly down in places like pennsylvania. 15 points in new hampshire. that is a big number. he is going in wisconsin tonight and he has got problems in wisconsin. the campaign may not want to say anything is wrong behind the scenes but you're seeing there , is a course correction in donald trump's own actions. this morning, tweeting he was actually looking at video of the american detainees leaving the plane in switzerland. then today, trying to explain the baby. and now, from our reporting endorsing paul ryan tonight, , expected to. it's donald trump. you have to be careful with how you cage it, because he can always change his mind. there does seem to be an intent attempt towards a course correction and an acknowledgement that things are not going well. jennifer: do you have any thoughts on the gary johnson effect? when you talk to voters, especially independents, are you hearing anything about gary johnson, and do you think he will have any effect on the race at all?

>> you do hear his name a little bit. i don't expect him to have a very large effect. also i hear the green party , candidate's name a bit as a protest vote, jill stein as a protest vote against hillary. again, not likely to have a very large effect. mark: who within the trump campaign right now, you said there are camps, are there camps? is there division about how to proceed? >> there is less the two camp at mr. than there was when corey lewandowski was there. corey lewandowski does still try to pull some strings behind the scenes. the rivalry between him and manafort is ongoing. there is a bit of revenge politics going on there. manafort has been trying to purge the campaign of everybody who was loyal to lewandowski. from the conversations that i

least, a sense that this is us versus them within the campaign. it is the idea that it is us versus everybody else. jennifer: are there any corey loyalists still there? >> there are a couple of strongholds there. but for the most part, it does seem like the coup -- jennifer: manafort won. then again donald trump talks to , corey lewandowski all the time. >> that is part of the issue. there is an undercutting going on between manafort and corey's desire to maintain the ear of donald trump. mark: and a lot of comments this week about donald trump one , piece of good news was the fund-raising. did that get the attention of the folks in brooklyn? >> yeah. they are concerned a little less so than they were six weeks or so ago. but they are concerned about the rally around the candidate aspect that they see happening on the republican side, where

there are republican donors and in the view of the clinton people, republican donors who are sort of holding their nose but giving money anyway. and the clinton people are somewhat concerned that that means that what they had hoped for in there being an ongoing fundraising gap will not materialize. she had a very good month in july. and they are trumpeting that pretty hard. that it should be noted she is in some ways having more success in fundraising than barack obama did, and that is not nothing. i said this yesterday and i'm sure donald trump of think i am being politically correct, how could they put up a list of economic advisers of all men? how could that possibly happen? >> i do not think they realize d what they were doing. you have this campaign -- how

they are not going out and trying to play defense before they get attacked for these sorts of things. it is hard to believe there is not one economic mind out there that is a female. mark: it is a big country. >> it is a big country. donald trump's friends, donors and other big business leaders. it is not necessarily an economic team so much as it is people who donald trump believes know what they're talking about. mark: trump's press secretary told us right before the show that they will roll out more names and presumably it will include women. it's symbolic but it just, it is hard to believe in a time when you're trying to appeal to a broader group of voters that you can just -- >> look at who is close to donald trump. there are not a lot of females. mark: put ivanka on it. she is a businesswoman. >> ivanka is one of his closest advisers who is a female. for the most part, the rest of the top people and donald trump circle are men. it is a very male centric world. jennifer: let me ask you, the bus tour this week. i've heard it was pretty grueling. how did she like it? did you think that she had a really good time? was it successful?

>> i was on the bus tour at the very back of the motorcade and people kept asking us, what is it like? are you on the same bus with her? are you playing cards with her? let me explain, when the motorcade goes around a curve at just the right angle from the back of the motorcade i can see , her bus way up there. she did seem to have a good time at the events. there wasn't a lot of of classic bus tour sorts of stuff that went along with it. they were not stopping for ice cream and stopping alongside the road to shake hands or anything. in fact, there was really none of that. only on the last day did she even stop at a restaurant anywhere. and that is where she had a small q&a session with reporters. overall, the clinton campaign believes it was a success in getting out her economic message, the idea that she has a

jobs program, a plan to add jobs and promote college education for those who want it. in areas of the country that are in their view particularly susceptible to trump's economic message, which is blue-collar, white america in pennsylvania and ohio. that is where the bus tour was centered. that said, she went to places in those states that had sort of a counterprogramming message. she went to advanced manufacturing facilities and talked about revitalizing american manufacturing. mark: it was a great made for tv bus trip. thank you very much. appreciate it. we will be right back with some numbers straight out of wisconsin right after this. ♪

♪ mark: in the spirit of the olympics, jennifer jacob has passed the hosting baton to katie tur who is joining us along with ken goldstein, professor of politics at the university of san francisco and bloomberg designating polling and advertising guru and an expert on wisconsin where he is based. ken, trump's there with pence. that is the state democrats have consistently won. how realistic is it for trump to put wisconsin into play? >> not very realistic at all. i think wisconsin is sometimes that football with lucy and charlie brown. i see no evidence that wisconsin is going to be competitive. we do not see any advertising dollars there. it is going to be interesting to see what kind of crowd they draw tonight because pence, after the convention went to waukesha county, there is no more important town in the country for republicans in terms of generating votes.

and pence only got 500 people. so, i don't see wisconsin, my former home state being in play , this year. >> wisconsin went to ted cruz during the primaries. is there any reason to believe that donald trump could turn around, and what does he need to do, get talk radio on his side , get behind forcefully paul ryan today, saying he does support him? can he turn it around? >> the point you made about talk radio is an important one. in the milwaukee media market which is 40% of the state, conservative talk radio is huge. and different than conservative talk radio in the much of the country. conservative talk radio in milwaukee, in wisconsin was anti-trump during the primaries and has remained anti-trump. so, the number of votes that a republic would have generate out of the wow counties, that border the city of milwaukee, a republican cannot get that

unless talk radio is on their side. i see no evidence they are going to come on his side in a big megaphone way. mark: we talked about the disparity in advertising between clinton and trump. clinton is going to buy national time during the olympics. no indicion trump is. why buy national at this when it point is not a national election? why not focus on battleground states? >> it is interesting, and something we may see more of down the line. clinton has $32 million bought over the next three weeks. half of that is national, $8 million on national cable news network's. and $8 million on nbc on the olympics. i think it is a case where it might just have been easier, where it was hard to get inventory, hard to buy battleground state by battleground state if you wanted the olympics, so it was easier and cheaper for them to just buy national, even if there was a

little wastage. it makes it a little bit more attractive for the national media to talk about it as a national buy. >> in the past you have said that we should not be paying attention to the polls. is now the time to start paying attention to the polls? does it matter now in august? >> yes, start paying attention to the polls now. we do see some variance from poll to poll, but there is a general picture emerging of a clinton bounce, and not so much a bounce but whatever the opposite of bounce is for trump this race is clearly in the 7%, 8%, 9% range. that is a meaningful number at this time. and again, i should stop making predictions this year. but i can't imagine that changing very much before the debates in september. mark: without improvement, worst case for trump. joel benenson told me he thought donald trump floor is we see him 40. below 40. is it possible that in this polarized country that the republican nominee, again, worst

case, no trump comeback for him, that he can do worse than 40%? >> well, what's interesting in the polls is all the polls basically agree on their horserace number, but when you look at the internals they have , some disagreements. one of the ways the polls differ is how loyal republicans are. and in some of those polls you see trump starting to dip below 80, closer to 75 among his from republicans. republicans are going to vote for republicans but if you start , to get republican loyalty dipping below 80 and hillary clinton able to be competitive with independents, you could get into that 40 or under range. mark: ken goldstein. thank you very much. back after this. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: we talked about trump's chances in wisconsin. what are trump's chances in iowa? >> well, yeah, it is definitely a swing state. it's difficult to see where it is going to roll. they went for ted cruz in the caucuses. trump did not do any good for himself today by saying this crowd in des moines, i am not a big fan of the iowa caucuses. i am not sure how well that went over. mark: we shall see. bloombergpolitics.com, john mccormick's great piece is up there about clinton's spending binge on the olympics. thanks for watching. sayonara. ♪

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