markets." scarlet: from bloomberg world headquarters, good afternoon, i'm scarlet fu. >> and oliver reddick. here is what we are watching. the republican presidential nominee will make an economic policy speech in detroit where he will outline proposals to allow families to deduct child care spending from their income taxes. all part of a broader effort to slash taxes. we take you to detroit when his remarks begin. you can also tune in on the bloomberg and on bloomberg.com. scarlet: u.s. stocks fluctuating after a rally pushing the s&p and the nasdaq to record highs. can stocks hold onto their gains as companies wrap of earnings season? oliver: oil prices hit a nearly

two-week high on hopes of an output increase from exporters. scarlet: we are halfway through the trading day. let's head over to the markets desk where julie hyman has been tracking the moves. record highs once again for the s&p. that all sounds very exciting but it has been by inches., stocks have been moving very little day by day with the exception of friday. if you look at the three major averages, after hitting a record high earlier, we now see a little bit of a pullback. if you look at the s&p 500 over the past month, the action we have seen, you see this inching up. it is the 21st straight session we have not seen a movement of 1% in the s&p 500 by the close.

even friday's game did not meet that. however, we did have eight straight record closes for the s&p 500 as well. inhas been a strange pattern the s&p. drag oneeing a bit of a stocks. oil on the upside, bristol-myers squibb falling again today after plunging friday on a negative results of a study on a drug to treat lung cancer. that has a lot of analyst commentary. pfizer and allergan, even though their profit beat estimates, sales missed estimates. oliver: we have the olympics in full swing after this weekend. what is happening in brazilian markets? julie: they have been doing well this year. i was talking to michael regan about etf's. here is the brazilian benchmark.

the five-day action trading at its highest since last may. all year we have seen a gain in brazilian stocks on the political turmoil we have seen their. now there is an acting temer, butmichel there are questions now has to participation in some of the things that got doma rosato out of office. if you look at some of the stocks go to most, petrobras. the oil producer is rising more than 3.5% along with oil. other commodities coming out of brazil are also active, although this time to the downside. orange juice and coffee are that is notday, but putting much of a dent in the stock rally. scarlet: thank you. oliver: let's get a check on the

first word news. delta airlines struggling to restart its worldwide operations after the computer crash made things a mess. the crash halted flights for hours. cancellations and delays will continue throughout the day. delta blames a power failure in atlanta. the airport there says no other airlines were affected. this satisfied republicans now have an alternative to donald trump. conservative evan mcmullen is running for president. he is a cia veteran and former policy director of the house of representatives. in southwestern pakistan, a bomb exploded at a government run hospital, killing 67 people. another 100 were wounded.

the taliban faction has claimed responsibility. team has beensian banned from competing in the upcoming paralympic games. it is punishment for the countries state-sponsored doping operation. condemned theon moscow's involvement while stopping short of blaming vladimir putin. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. thank you. in any moment, we will be going to donald trump, who is making an economic policy speech in detroit. the speech will focus on providing regulatory relief for small businesses, according to senior campaign aides. we will take you there live one his remarks begin. you can also tune in on the bloomberg and on bloomberg.com/

live. scarlet: with two consecutive robust job reports, can the federal confident at their next meeting in september? we spoke to richard clarida about janet yellen and the messages she is giving the market. the chair has really had a couple of messages. in may, she was signaling a high of june 15. the communication has been garbled. i think that august speech at jackson hole is important, if she chooses to seize that opportunity with a big fed meeting in september. the bank ofhave japan and england had at the other direction, as a practical matter, is that not constrained? >> point. new york fed president dudley alluded to that. divergence strengthen the dollar, hurts u.s. exports,

essentially hurts the inflation out for -- outlook. there is a limit to diversions, and there was a surprise easing from the bank of england. >> what would be the number one morning sun for you for equities? >> in the u.s. and the u.k., we have a goldilocks scenario. not too hot, not too cold in the case of the bank of england. what could make the stories our would be a surprise from china. a year ago that happened. i am not predicting it, but if you are saying what would be a worry, that would do it. the other thing would be a replay of the taper tantrum. a more hinted at aggressive policy, we had a selloff in bonds, a hit to equities. that would be a surprise move out of the chinese, and another taper tantrum could change the dynamic. right now i it is positive for growth. i want to keep coming back to

the dollar. another issue for u.s. corporations that could affect equities is the dollar strengthening. that could really constrain it. >> we have had four consecutive quarters of negative earnings. that has been rationalized by strong dollar, weak oil. the consensus is now that is over and we are getting some modest earnings. with the strong dollar, especially if it strengthens -- flight to quality would be negative for equities. dollar index is not back to where it was last year, which is when people would start to reprice the big cats. my question is on the goldilocks. is good news, but the cynic in me says good news is good news to a certain extent. maybe people believe that it is good but the fed will do what they will do. >> that is exactly the story. when i did your show last year,

there was a question of one and done. and theare in august one and done crowd has certainly had a better call. you are right. it is goldilocks because they see the fed on the sidelines even with proper data. that the question, it seems like the rally is based not on growth on central bank liquidity. would you agree with that? >> absolutely. very specific on this. they are focused on financial conditions, lower negative rates in many parts of the world. investors are essentially going into equities because they are relatively good alternatives. >> ultimately, the valley of the stock has to be tied up with the expected earnings stream. you wonder at what point does that come back and bite you if you don't have those earnings? you had on said uncorrelated assets because you do not have that growth. andou have a shakeout

everything is taken down, you have to hedge your bets. on equities,factor the discount factor. the fed keeps rates low, the discounted cash flows can go up, even with average earnings, but you are right, the dollar is the key part of this. bill gross is saying to buy gold and assets. a lot of people have been saying this. what do you make of that argument right now, that i do not like stocks and bonds given where they are trading. real assets are what i like? relaxedts are way too about a modest overshoot of inflation. we have had low inflation and markets are pricing in the fed will never hit its 2% inflation target. to me, that is a bad bet. over the next 10 years, inflation will be around 2%. i think the fed has an intent --

incentive to overshoot. they have been coined but they have been running a policy to overshoot. we could be talking about higher inflation next year, and i think that is the case for real assets. inflation index bonds are relatively cheap now because markets are too relaxed. scarlet: that was richard clarida speaking earlier today. let's get you another live shot as we await donald trump -- actually, we do not have that long shot, but we are awaiting the republican nominee. he will be giving their real on his plans for the u.s. economy. to the detroitu economic club when it begins. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: this is the detroit economic club where vice presidential nominee mike pence is speaking right now. donald trump will be outlining his economic policy fairly shortly in an effort to draw a stark contrast to his opponent hillary clinton and her domestic policies. we will take you there when donald trump begins. tune intou want to mike pence on the bloomberg, you can check it out at live go and on our london events channel on bloomberg.com. it is time for the bloomberg business flash. the british government still plans to make a decision next month on whether to go ahead with a $24 billion nuclear plant . the deal was held at last month because of concerns over the

price that was promised for electricity. the facility would be the first nuclear power plant built in the u.k. in more than two decades. oliver: u.s. regulators have find deutsche bank $12 million for improper use of it squawked boxes. the regulatory authority says theoliver: u.s. regulators have bank broadcasted confidential information to its internal speaker network. deutsche bank agreed to implement a monitoring system. toward: they are leaning promoting a woman toward its advertising agency. this comes after the resignation of kevin roberts, who had sparked an uproar. he made some controversial comments on gender diversity. that is the bloomberg business flash update. oliver: in any moment, donald trump will outline his economic policy in a speech from the detroit economic club in an effort to draw a stark contrast

with the domestic policies of hillary clinton. we will take you there live with his remarks begin. you can watch the speech on our live events channel on bloomberg.com. this is bloomberg. ♪ course, donald trump will be giving more details on his economic policy plan. he is speaking in detroit. hillary clinton will give her economic speech in michigan on thursday as well. chosesting that he detroit, because he plans to use it as an example of how the obama administration and hillary, who would continue the obama legacy, has highlighted

some of the failed economic policies there. trump in general polls better when it comes to the economy, but she has been narrowing the lead. oliver: it is kind of a go big or go home location. detroit has been pretty troubled bankruptcies,e problems that have been at the core of the middle of america. we will see how they receive their plans. scarlet: let's tune into donald trump. is where our story begins. detroit was once the economic envy of the world. the people of detroit helped to power americans to its position of global dominance in the 20th century.

[crowd boos] [applause] >> thank you very much. when we were governed by the america first policy, detroit was absolutely booming. engineers, builders, laborers, shippers, and countless others went to work each day, provided for their families, and the lived out, totally, the american dream. but for many, living in the city , that dream has long ago vanished. when we abandon the policy of america first, we started rebuilding other countries instead of our own. the skyscrapers went up in beijing and many other cities around the world while the factories and neighborhoods detroit. right here in

our roads and bridges fell into disrepair, yet we found the money to resettle millions of refugees at taxpayer expense. today, detroit has per capita about of under $15,000, half of the national average. 40% of the city's residents live in poverty. over 2.5 times the national average. the unemployment rate is more than twice the national average. half of all detroit residents do not work. detroit tops the list of the most dangerous cities in terms of violent crime.

[crowd boos] [applause] >> thank you. detroit tops the list of most dangerous cities in terms of violent crime. these are silent victims whose stories are never told by hillary clinton, but victims whose suffering is no less real or permanent. isshort, the city of detroit the living, breathing example of my opponent's failed economic agenda. [applause] every policy that has failed this city and so many others is a policy supported by hillary clinton. she supports the high taxes and

radical regulation that forced jobs out of your community, and the crime, policies have made you far less safe, and immigration policies that have strained the local budgets, and the trade deals like that stuff nafta, signed by her husband, mexico andur jobs to other countries, and she supports the education policies that denies your students choice , freedom, and opportunity. [applause] pasts the candidate of the . ours is the campaign of the future. this is a city controlled by democratic politicians at every level. unless we change policies, we

100%.ot change results, [applause] today, i will outline my economic vision. in the coming weeks, we will be offering more detail on all of these policies, and the ones that we have already rolled out -- [crowd boos] [applause] >> thank you, everybody. this is what happens when you go from 35 people too close to 2000 people, i guess. in the coming weeks, we will be offering more detail on all of these policies, and the ones

that we have already rolled out can be viewed on my campaign website. our opposition, on the other hand, as long ago run out of ideas. all hillary clinton has to offer is more of the same, more taxes, more regulations, more bureaucrats, more restrictions on american energy, and on american production. more of that. if you were a foreign power looking to weaken america, you could not do better than hillary clinton's economic agenda. [applause] nothing would make our foreign adversaries happier than for our country to tax and regulate our companies and our jobs, right out of existence. the one common feature of every hillary clinton idea is that it

punishes you for working and doing business in the united states. [applause] has tilt theshe playing field toward other countries, at our expense, and that is why she tries to distract us with tired political rhetoric that seeks to label us, divide us, and pull us apart. my campaign is about reaching out to everyone as americans and returning to a government that puts the american people first. [applause]

>> thank you. here is what an american first economic plan looks like. first, let's talk tax reform. taxes are one of the biggest differences in this race. hillary clinton, who has spent her career voting for tax increases, plans another massive job killing $1.3 trillion tax increase. big increase. one of the biggest ever. her plan would tax many small businesses by almost 50%. recently, at a campaign event, hillary clinton -- you know this, you have heard this one. hillary clinton short-circuited ,gain, to use a now famous term when she accidentally told the truth and said she wanted to raise taxes on the middle class.

[applause] i am proposing an across-the-board income tax , especially for middle income americans. this will lead to millions of new and really good paying jobs. the rich will pay their fair share, but no one will pay so much that it destroys jobs, or undermines our ability as a nation to compete. [applause] as part of this reform, we will eliminate the carried interest deduction. boo] [crowd boos] thank you. as part of this reform, we will eliminate the carried interest

reduction -- reduction -- deduction, and other move. having good for wall street investors, and people like me, but unfair to american workers. tax simplification will be a major feature of the plan. [applause] our current tax code is so burdensome and so complex that yearste 9 billion hours a in tax code compliance. my plan would reduce the number 7003 andts from dramatically streamline the process. even to three and dramatically streamline the process. we will work with house republicans on the plan using the same bracket they have

proposed, 12%, 25%, and 33%. for many american workers, their tax rate will be zero. we will develop -- [crowd boos] [applause] >> we will develop our own services and policies, agreeing in some areas but not in all or others. we will be focused on the same shared goals and guidance, the same shared principles. jobs, growth, and opportunity. [applause] these reforms will offer the biggest tax revolution since the reagan tax reform, which

unleashed years of continued economic growth and job creation. again. make america grow [applause] in the days ahead, we will provide more details on this you, and how it will help and most importantly, your family. it will present a night and a contrast to the job killing, tax raising, poverty inducing obama-clinton agenda. [applause] so important, the state of new through already lived

hillary clinton's failed leadership. "the washington post" today published an article on her broken promises. forpledged 200,000 jobs upstate new york when she was a senator. but what happened? ,the washington post" writes and i quote, "upstate job growth stagnated overall during her tenure with manufacturing jobs plunging record-setting levels .- plunging nearly 25% the former first lady was totally unable to pass big ticket legislation. they wereised jobs -- all promised, i remember so well hillary, she will

bring back your jobs. others migrated to other states. she turned her first presidential run -- which also was a disaster. [applause] mr. trump: thank you. data shows that upstate actually them.obs, a lot of in other words, she was all talk, no action. upstate new york is a disaster. upstate newpened to york?

signed,hich her husband is a very big reason. compare that to my record. save newd trump helped york city. quote, andirect other words, not from me. thank you. well planned out. this is a direct quote that basically donald trump waded

-- the mugginge ground that was central park, so dangerous, and wall street, seemingly on its last legs, as companies moved out. then, by almost sheer force of expressed their faith in the future, and was instrumental in kickstarting the regeneration of neighborhoods and landmarks, almost given up on, or dead. true. they said it. i do not say it. true. this is what i want to do. remember, new york city was a

disaster. we made it great. this is what i want to do. this is what i want to do for our country. i want to jumpstart america. it can be done. it will not be that hard. [applause] at what theook obama and clinton policies have done nationally. their policies produced 1.27% growth, the weakest so-called recovery since the great depression. and, a doubling of the national debt during the obama years. there are now 94.3 million americans outside of the labor

force. it was 80.5 million when president obama took office. an increase of 40 million people. obama-clinton agenda has created a silent nation of jobless americans. homeownership is at its lowest rate in 51 years. [booing] >> [indiscernible] [applause] mr. trump: thank you very much. i will say, the bernie sanders

people had far more energy and spirit. nearly 12 million people have to food stamps. these people are growing, and sinceg so rapidly president obama took office. another nearly 7 million people, great americans, are right now living in poverty. poverty. lowest labor force participation rate in four decades. 58% of the african-american youth are either outside the labor force or not employed. one in five american households do not have a single member in the labor force. not a single member of the

household. real unemployment. figure is one of the biggest hoaxes and american modern politics. [applause] trump: meanwhile, american thanholds are earning more $4000. $4000 less today than they were 16 years ago. the average worker today pays 31.5% of their wages to income and payroll taxes. on top of that, state and local taxes consume another 10%. the united states also has the highest business tax rate among

the major industrialized nations of the world at 35%. 40%. almost [cheering]com it is almost 40% when you add in taxes at the state level, and in many cases much higher than that. in other words, we punish companies from making products in america, but let them ship products into the united states tax-free if they move overseas. this, ladies and gentelman, is backwards. all of our policies should he geared towards keeping jobs and

wealth inside the united states. under my plan, no american company will pay more than 15% of their business income in taxes. reducingwords, we are thankxes from 35% to 15% you. small businesses will benefit .he most from this plan hillary clinton's plan will require small businesses to pay morech as three times

taxes than what i am proposing. put herb regulations will them totally out of business and you will not be able to start. you cannot ever start a small business under the tremendous regulatory burden that you have in our country today. i will end it. cut regulations massively. massively. the lower business tax will also and job killing corporate inversions and cause trillions of wealth to come pouring into the country. way, also into cities like here in detroit. [applause]

mr. trump: to help unleash this new job creation, we will allow businesses to expense new business investment. no one will gain more from these though and them middle income americans. reduce will also help job care by helping parents reduce the amount of job care spending from taxes. backe also going to bring trillions of dollars from american businesses that are now part overseas. they cannot bring money back into our country. will bring the cash home, applying only a 10% tax.

this money will be reinvested in states like michigan. states like michigan which are having serious problems. finally, no family will have to pay the death tax. american workers have paid taxes all their lives and they should not be taxed when they are dead. it is just plain wrong. we will repeal it. next comes regulatory perform. have oneaxes, i will overriding goal when it comes to regulation. i want jobs and i want wealth to stay in america.

motor vehicle manufacturing is one of the most heavily regulated industries in the country and the world. the u.s. economy today is twain 5% smaller than it would have been without the surge of regulations since 1980. it is estimated that current overregulation is costing our economy as much as $2 trillion per year. that is money taken straight out of cities like detroit. so many are suffering. the federal register is now over 80,000 pages long. as the wall street journal noted, president obama has issued close to 400 new

regulation since taking office, each with the cost to the u.s. economy with $100 million, or more. loan, the obama administration unilaterally 2000d more than regulations. the anchorto remove dragging us down. that is what it is doing. dragging us down. office, i will issue a temporary moratorium on new agency regulations. [applause] mate, mikemy running pence, and by the way, a great

order when a similar in indiana. hard this will give the american companies the certainty they need to reinvest in our community. start hiring new jobs. what it is all about. i will also immediately counsel -- cancel all illegal overreaching executive orders. [applause] next, i will ask each and every federal agency to prepare list of the regulations

they imposed on americans which improvenecessary do not security and kill jobs. those regulations will be a limited quickly. we are in a competition with the world. i want america to win. we don't win anymore, but when i am president, we will start .inning again one of the most important reforms of all is trade reform. , weernie sanders has said

have seen bad judgment overseas in iraq, syria, libya, iran. we have seen the terrible obama clinton judgment. right here for everyone to see. hillary clinton has stripped the city and country of its jobs and wealth. she supported bill clinton's into the the entrance world trade organization. she supported a job killing trade deal, a really bad one, south korea. she supports the transpacific

partnership. that would be a disaster for detroit and everybody else. [applause] let's talk about south korea for a minute. it illustrates the broken to u.s. workers. president obama and the so-called experts who have been dealong about every predicted that the deal with south korea would increase our exports to south korea by more than $10 billion resulting in some 70,000 jobs. brokenllary clinton's promises to new york, these pledges all turned out to be false. instead of creating 70,000 jobs, it has killed nearly 100,000

economicrding to the policy institute. orts have not increased at all. archery deficit has more than doubled with that country. the next the trail will be the transpacific partnership. hillary clinton's closest friend confirmed what i have been saying. this is from the beginning. if sent to the oval office, hillary clinton will enact the tpp. a voteors will make sure for hillary clinton is a vote for tpp. it is also a vote for nafta. the annual trade to visit -- trade deficit has risen from

close to zero. think of that. most to zero in 1993 to $60 billion today. couldtal trade deficit hit nearly a bit -- billion dollars last year. is a strike at the heart of as agan and our nation whole. according to the bureau of labor statistics, before nafta went into effect, there were over 285,000 autoworkers in michigan. today, that number is only 160,000. foroit is still waiting hillary clinton's apology. she has been a disaster, obama has been a disaster. i expect a trite look at that apology right around the same time hillary clinton turns over

the 33,000 e-mails she deleted. [applause] mr. trump: hillary clinton's transpacific partnership will be an even bigger disaster for the auto industry. even bigger and even worse than nafta. inside, ford motor company has announced its opposition to the deal. according to the economic policy institute, the trade deficit with the proposed tpp member oneanies has cost over million manufacturing jobs. by far the biggest losses occurred in motor vehicles and 740,000ich lost nearly manufacturing jobs. what are we doing to go michigan

ranks first in job losses as a forces. trade how many more jobs will be lost if tpp is actually approved? it will be catastrophic. that is why i have announced we will withdraw from the deal before that can ever happen. [applause] hillary clinton will tpp. withdraw from she has bought, controlled, -- she was bought, controlled, and paid for 100% by her special interests. because my only interest is

the american people, i have laid out a detailed seven point plan available on my website. it includes strong protections against currency manipulation. a big problem. country thatst any cheats by unfairly subsidizing goods. it includes a total renegotiation of nafta. . total renegotiation if we don't get a better deal, we will walk away. china is responsible for nearly half of our trade deficit.

they break the rules in every way imaginable, including militarily. in illegal export, theft of, and rampant intellectual property. it is rampant. they also have no real environmental or labor protections further undercutting american workers. just enforcing intellectual laws alone could save millions and millions of american jobs. [applause] trump: according to the u.s. international trade agreement, improved protection of america's electoral property in china would produce more than 2 million more jobs right here

right now in the united states. that to the saved jobs from cracking down on product dumping, and we will bring trillions of dollars in new wealth and wages back to our country, the united states of america. thank you. [applause] mr. trump: so simple. has big benefits. benefits and i am in favor, totally in favor of trade. i want trade that creates more jobs and higher wages for american workers. isolation is not an option.

isolation is not an option. only great and well-crafted , instead of being .aken advantage and ouroing to benefit workers will benefit, or we will not make those deals. also critical will be energy reform. administrationon has blocked and destroyed millions of jobs through their anti-energy regulations.

while, raising the price of electricity for families and businesses. epa result of recent obama actions, coal-fired plants across michigan have either shut down entirely or undergone extensive conversions, making them noncompetitive in many cases. ost war on coal has c michigan over 50,000 jobs. hillary clinton says her plan will put a lot of coal companies and miners out of business. we will put our coal miners and are still workers back to work. where they want to be. [applause] mr. trump: clinton not only embraces obama's job killing energy restrictions, but, once to expand them, including going after oil and

natural gas production. according to the heritage foundation, by 2030 -- think of that, 2030 -- the obama clinton energy restrictions will eliminate another half a million manufacturing jobs, reduce economic output by $2.5 trillion, and reduce income spike $7,000 per person. a trump administration will end this war on the american worker. and, unleash an energy revolution that will bring vast new wealth to our country. forrding to the institute energy resource, lifting restrictions on all forms of energy will to the following: , add over 500,000 new jobs annually, and increase

annual wages by more than $30 billion over the next seven years. [applause] mr. trump: additionally, it will increase federal, state, and local tax revenue by almost $6 trillion over four decades. increased total economic activity by more than $20 trillion over the next 40 years. the reforms i have outlined today are only the beginning. , trade,perform attacks energy, and regulatory policies, we will open a new chapter in american prosperity, which is so desperately needed. we need a new chapter. [applause] we can use this new wealth to rebuild our military, which is desperately needed, and

ifr infrastructure as part -- a structure. as part of this new future, we will also increase choice and reduce costs in childcare, offering much-needed relief to american families. their suffering. we will get them this much-needed relief. [applause] i will unveil my plan on this in the coming weeks and i have been working on it with my daughter, who is here. she feel so strongly about this. and an incredible team of experts. education reforms

will help parents send their kids to a school of their choice. it will be so good for detroit. police andgive our law enforcement the funds and support they need to restore law and order to this country. thank you. without security there can be no prosperity.

without security there can be no prosperity. we must have law and order. we must have law and order. our police in this country are unrecognized for the incredible job they do. in the coming days we will be rolling out plans on all of these items. one of my first acts will be to repeal and replace disastrous obama care, saving another 2 million american jobs.

we will also read bill our share to pay their fair for the protection we provide to saving them countless of billions of dollars to invest in our own country. we also have a plan on our website for complete reform of the veterans administration. this is something so desperately needed to make sure our vets are fully supported and get the care they deserve, which they have not been getting, not even close.

detroit, the motor city will come roaring back. we will offer a new future, not the same old failed policies of the past. our party has chosen to make new history by selecting a nominee from the outside. outside the very very already proven rate system. the other party has reached a nomineeto choose from yesterday, who offers only the rhetoric of yesterday and the policies of yesterday. take a look at what happened to new york state manufacturing and her promises before this happened.

there will be no change under hillary clinton. only four more years of weakness under president obama. to look boldly into the future. we will build a generation of roads, bridges, seaports, and airports. that is what our country deserves. american cars will travel the roads. american planes will connect our cities and american ships will patrol the seas. americans deal will send new skyscrapers sarin all over the country.

we will put new american metal into the spine of this nation. it will be american hands that rebuild this country. it will be american workers hired to do the job, american workers. americanism, not globalism will be our new credo. our country will reach amazing new heights, maybe heights never obtained before.

all we have to do is stop relying on the tired voices of the past. system byed rate relying on the people. we are reliant on people who read this system in the past. we can't solve that problem. so we cannot solve our problems if we are going to rely on these politicians. only by changing to new leadership and solutions will we get new and great results. we need to stop believing in and start believing in our great country.

before everything great that has happened, the doubters have said it couldn't be done. they actually said it when i ran for political office. it has never happened. prove the ready to doubters wrong. they want you to think small. i am asking you to think big. ready for great things for our country once again. we are ready to show the world that america is back, bigger and better and stronger than ever before. god bless you, thank you.

thank you very much. >> there was donald trump, wrapping up his economic policy speech at the detroit economic club. about tax reform and an across-the-board tax cut. he would simplify the tax code and cut down the tax brackets. he also talked about reforming canceling all order reaching order and trade reform. specifically committed to a policy in which there is no transpacific partnership. in addition he says he will repeal obama care, the affordable care act and engage in energy reforms. putting coal miners

and steelworkers back to work. he made a passing reference to boosting infrastructure investment. many of the proposal say he will be unveiling details of his plan in the coming weeks. we want to bring in jennifer jacobs as well as joe weisenthal for more on trumps economic policy speech. we have heard several of these proposals in the past. >> we reported here he would announce all those proposals. what was interesting was he was trying to show that he has a history that compares directly with hillary clinton. he says when she was the u.s. senator from upstate new york she left the area in a disastrous state. he has compared himself to new york city" a news articles in which it was reported that he helped improve new york.

that he took used to landmarks and regenerated them. he's trying to say he has a history that directly compares with hillary clinton. he was saying he represents the future and he will jumpstart the country. >> drop has policies that are unconventional for republicans. obviously his opposition to freeze -- to free trade. his advisers are some classic conservative thought leaders. can he bridge the cap between his more populist economic viewpoint and their more traditional laissez-faire supply-side ideology? host: he was trying to do that. he was signaling

he wants to work with house republicans. a week ago he was saying he was not sure if he could endorse house speaker and paul ryan that house speaker paul ryan. we may not always agree but we are going to be working for jobs and opportunity and growth. some of my proposals aligned with theirs. his tax cut proposals are very similar to what house republicans and paul ryan are calling for. for the income taxed to be reduced to three tax brackets. he's going even deeper than the house republicans. sorry, 15%. >> we are try to figure out whether or not walk -- whether or not markets or wall street, how they feel about trump.

to pull away from both sides, i want to pull up a soundbite where he is talking about one of these topics that he was talking about before that he did again today. donald: we will eliminate the carried interest deduction and other special interest loopholes that have been so good for wall street investors and people like me, but unfair to american workers. tax simplification will be a major feature. >> this is one of those things where he is targeting a specific community. what does it take away from the speech, whether or not wall street likes this guy? he wants tomaybe talk about repealing dodd-frank,

there are these things that are going to put -- on some of these wall street guys. are probably people out there who would be upset by the loss of interest. jennifer talked about he has taken a view on the tax code that has aligned with republican viewpoints, who is definitely liked by wall street. so perhaps that is a way for trump to thread the needle. acting a formand of tax reform. including getting the money overseas back. the attack probably wouldn't go fairly well. different different kind of

donald trump today. he was interrupted in the first 10 times of the 20 minutes of his speech and he didn't respond to the heckerling. he paused and let it continue. as people heckled him they were then removed from the audience. this was a different donald trump then we have seen in the last few weeks that cause poll numbers to go down. oftentimes he taunts them and eggs on his audience to yell at them. much an olive branch to those republicans who criticized him. are hurting the party with this smash mouth attitude. stuck to that speech he helped others right. >> when trump talks about his economic policies, he references how it makes people safer. also bleeds in very nicely with his foreign-policy.

does he view himself as an economic problem solver? >> he kind of touched upon both. without security no prosperity. he talked about americanism should be our new credo. he had something for everybody in this speech. he touched upon agricultural interests. he talked about the childcare expense be in tax-deductible. something his daughter feels strongly about. he talked about business tax cuts that are very much targeted he'sd-level executives trying to hit on lower income and blue-collar voters.

he was trying to spread himself out and say he is the candidate for everyone. >> jennifer jacobs. from washington. thank you so much along with joe weisenthal. we will have more coverage of donald trump's economic policy speech. will also be an economic policy speech, so there will be plenty to compare and contrast there. s&p off by 2.5 points. this is bloomberg.

: let's head to the trading desk. >> if you look at stocks right now, similar to what we saw more than an hour ago. that is a little bit of a downturn in the overall averages. just a 10th of a percent of a pullback. we do have some individual stocks to talk about on the deal front today. , $2.4ss firm holding billion is the price on this. it is a high per share price. the price is $64 per share in cash. annual -- someme

analysts that valuation may raise some eyebrows. other mattress retailers and makers are advancing in today's show -- -- today's session. two of the best-known ski resort areas. about $1.05 billion here. you can see whistler is rallying more than that. and then intra-west resorts is getting caught in that updraft to some extent. we are watching fitness technologies today. there doesn't seem to be a specific catalyst going on, maybe an olympic up swing. and we have been watching oil rally today.

there are signatures to on a ballot in colorado that would limit fracking to some extent. the outcome of that is being awaited. >> a lot of green on the screen. a lot of single stock movers. stock market is expensive but compared to bonds equities are actually cheap and have room to soar. that theory is tough to justify for several reasons. this is looking at the idea of the fed model. bond yields are low, stock yields are high right now. looking at the earnings yield on the s&p, which is earnings overprice. look at the spread on the bottom. we are pretty elevated relative

to this longer-term average. thisally in order to even equalt for them to become , that means stocks can go higher. the shorter-term average, we are pretty much on par with where things have been since about 2006, 2007. so you don't have a lot of historical backdrop because there is no perceivable correlation between the two. we have to get in and figure out if this is something that is going to drive stocks higher. >> you can have bond yields rising as well and earning yields can collapse. a three ways the gap closes and one of those ways is the only good first docs. yields, we of bond know when it comes to treasuries, those juicy yields

are what make them attractive to foreign investors but it could be an illusion. what happens when foreign investors hedge against the 10 year yield. can see a big difference between the 10 year yield pickup after currency hedging. hedge and 10 year yield wielded more than half a percentage point more than a .asket when you on hedge it the 10 year yield is four percentage points higher. >> that is so important because it doesn't make any sense. >> we will see. still ahead. today's deals report between jeff mccracken and a top banker. this is bloomberg.

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camcorders i'm oliver renick. scallop and and i am scarlet fu. -- scarlet bank and i am scarlet fu. : in a speech to the detroit hisomic club trump says proposals includes cutting business taxes, reducing regulations and increasing energy production. donald: i am imposing an across-the-board tax reduction, especially for middle income americans. ofs will lead to millions new and good paying jobs. the rich will pay their fair share but no one will pay so orh that it destroys jobs undermines our ability as a nation to compete. >> hillary clinton will deliver an address on the economy on thursday. a 51%ary clinton has chance of winning, compared to donald trump's 48%.

that is according to an election forecast which sites 12 surveys. georgia has not voted for a democratic nominee since -- 10 foreign nationals have been detained over specific ties to a cleric. he has denied any involvement and lives in self-imposed exile in pennsylvania. pay increased more than 10%. compensation, $7.2 million. last month british prime minister theresa may condemned what she calls the irrational -- betweennd growing workers and executives. than 2600 more journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. scarlet, back to you.

blair efron is the largest individual contributor to the presidential campaign. advising on transactions including procter and gaba 70's billion dollar purchase of gillette. executive editor of global m&a asked how he thinks the presidential race is going for hillary clinton. >> so far so good. how much support we are getting this cycle versus previous cycles. we came out with an endorsement program. your own mike bloomberg. meg whitman to most recently. general motors. and fundamentally if you ask the reasons it is the same three or

four among the whole set. she is seen as studied and .xperienced to long-term growth, reinvesting focusing atry, little let's -- little less on fourth quarter return. come outthat she has with a detailed plan on the economy. everything from early childhood of through college. and obviously in terms of jobs. and you don't get that from trump. >> does trump concern the ceos because he is not able to stay on message? there will be an interview that diverts him from this path. >> a ceo wants certainty, once stability, and wants ace --

wants a decision-making process that they operate against, that they understand what the parameters are. that obviously has been a big issue. a consistency, not a long-term planning process, and a ceo looks for a precedent and that level of steadiness in a leader is really what leads the ceo to make the investments for longer-term in our company. >> how do elections impact m&a? back through the years, how has impacted m&a? >> it is a big difference when an incumbent is running versus when each party is running it for a nonincumbent candidate.

andand -- and mendes lows for different reasons. it is not because anyone wants to see who wins. i think there is a perspective hillary will be the next president. it is more what will the leadership do at that point. what kind of policies will be put in place? we obviously in the u.k. with brexit. fundamentally you are going to advise a client that you wait for a little bit of certainty before you make such strategic decisions. now we are in august getting it to labor day. expect that to have impact on and a day. i think you are already telling clients that if it doesn't need to happen tomorrow for some sort of particular dynamic, sit back and see what goes from there.

>> is that what played out in previous years? that slowdown and concern? >> it was a very difficult to thousand eight economically. much more stability and much more certainty. you can hear this in the discussion when you are in a board room. , the perspective is how do i beyond ast 2017 and opposed to how i think about october and beyond. sortu haven't been in some of discussion, chances are pretty good you would hold off on that. hillary's term as almost a third term of obama's term? i know that a republican would say.

>> the first two terms of obama, good. stock market at a record high. growth,y we need more but relative to any country anywhere, the most stable investment economy out there. i think the job is to build on what president obama has done and more. her plan calls for 4% growth and 10 million jobs. so it is building on the success of what it has done, recognizing we need to do a lot more. $2 trillion surplus, not so bad. >> how do the ceos you deal with and the boards you talk to, how

do they feel about the economy? what is the general viewpoint fair? >> the view on the u.s. is we are a good market. fundamentally since the downturn, growth simply hasn't to really get% wage growth and jobs where you want to be, to get investment where you want it to be. what strikes me is how the management teams have gone through. it's of sluggishness and uncertainty. fundamentally the reason we are in a that. the key to me is how do you get a ceo to be as focused or invest and not just on

the productivity questions. i think most ceos are looking strongly to an environment helping to foster an environment where they can make those kinds of decisions. >> that was blair efron on how many ceos made a potential deal for the presidential race. may want to hit the pause button. this is bloomberg.

>> this is school -- this is bloomberg markets. >> every monday we zoom in on the m&a business with insight on the big players behind the deals.

blair efron is known as one of the biggest dealmakers on wall street. jeff mccracken asked efron about the ceos perspective when pursuing deals. with athe day starts micro question. do something to either stabilize my portfolio or enhance my portfolio? >> growth does factor in importantly. when you can't grow your business is as much as you want to, it is a way to bolster growth, certainly for synergy. the ceo wants to know here she can take the business and do something more with it to grow that enterprise.

the most important time for the success of a transaction is the first 18 months following a close. to make an assumption on overall , yound then the wrong start off in a very difficult decision. is difficult. beyond the window of when you might have a sense of when that would be. and then what will that look like under various macro scenarios once you own it? and what will you do once you -- what we do to correct? it seems and a day has slowed down from 2015, which was a record year.

view 2016 at 2017? fine, down 20% from last year, which was a record. we are running at half the level . m&a is active enough. i think this is more of a market that has longevity to it area last year was an anomaly. you don't have a year where you have 50 transactions. as you start to have a better sense of what the political

environment looks like you will see peaceful activity. >> the $10 billion deals come is that because people are concerned about the antitrust environment, the regulatory environment. a lot of deals have been pushed back, whether we are talking pfizer deals. is it just companies have to digest all the deals they have done? >> all of the above and more. that you are going to recommend a huge transaction, and not have enough certainty as to when or how it will close, definitely that will have an impact. percentage of deals that are getting done are no different than they have ever been. the affluent number looked

pretty large. if you took 18 months to close a transaction versus a planning process that calls for nine. that is a big period of exposure to live through a period of uncertainty and still be able to maintain the base business. i would also say valuations are high, the idea that you're going for an asset means you better buy a business that has really good synergy. and for most companies we will potentially have difficulty with shareholders. you need to be very careful about that.

finally i would say the financing markets. they have been so good for so long. them that was blair efron with bloomberg managing editor of the mende jeff mccracken. a quick checkou on stocks as julie mentioned. momentum.e downward a pretty fractional move when it comes to equities. the s&p and the nasdaq closing at record highs. >> a little bit of a pull away as we said in last week. trading at these levels. let's go to abigail to abigail too little live from the nasdaq. >> as you are just discussing we have the nasdaq down, slightly retreating from last friday's record closing high. also retreating from the intraday record high. we will have to see in the days and weeks ahead whether or not

that can be taken out. a big reason for the small decline in the nasdaq, we have biotech index. the last several weeks, up 20's percent. speak with a bloomberg intelligence analyst who does not think biotech is out of the woods yet. fact in thed in future see pressures returning around drug pricing. however our team did speak to the head of technical announcement. he said this is a new all market for biotech periods. we are looking at a least a bit of a pause for biotech. netflix down 2%. it is not entirely clear what is behind this. be leftaction could over. time warner is taking an 8% stake into hulu. the surface will offer a

competing service. down more 15% on the year. concerns of declining growth in subscribers. look at the nasdaq, it is not down by a whole lot. what is keeping it from falling further? >> we have one nice biotech winner. beating earnings by 23%. they reaffirmed the full-year view. we are looking at apple at 6/10 of 1%. as a top identified underweight among institutional so you could make the case that institutional investors have become more interested in the apple, there is more room. a better than expected report. also as investors look forward to the relief of the new -- the

release of the new iphone seven, upgrades coming out this fall. from theing live nasdaq. it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at biggest business stories in the news right now. or call may have been hit by a massive cyber breach. that is according to -- with says hackers also cracked a set -- cracked a customer support portal. oracle confirms it deleted malicious code in its microsystem. it is asking all customers to reset their passwords. >> goldman sachs and credit suites are teaming up with a european bank for a 9.9% stake of the turkish company. that is according to the company's cfo who says the trio of investors paid $160 million to acquire the stake and they will also be involved in an ipo that is reportedly in the pipeline.

that is your bloomberg business flash update. the company went from a small dairy farm in colorado to more than $100 million in annual sales. this is bloomberg.

>> i am all of her redneck. renick -- i amr oliver renick. startups can make a significant splash in the market. one of the fastest-growing brands is headquartered in colorado, but as the ceo explains its journey from small to big, it began down under. >> i was home visiting my family in australia and i tasted what

was essentially the most delicious beer i have had in my life. i figured out a way to license the recipe. we focused really on the backyard colorado market. and then in 2012 we had a target come to us. four months later targets came back to us. we love how your performing with our guests. we didn't have a business plan, we didn't have a real strategy. we feel like we should say yes to every opportunity.

we didn't have the right resources from a marketing standpoint. it really was too far. fortunately they were able to pull back. this business was getting bigger and bigger. to help us grow. and take it to the event level. building out the plan for a future. we just finished a $20 million expansion.

we just a really focused on what they did really well. oliver: that was in today small to big. scarlet: oil trading back up to $40 per barrel. they predict that the bear market will be short-lived. is the cartel right? chairman of petri partners. this is bloomberg.

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vonnie: it's a little :00 in markn -- 11:00, i'm vonnie -- vonnie quinn. shery: and i'm shery ahn.

welcome to "bloomberg markets." vonnie: we are it bloomberg world headquarters in new york. over the next hour, covering stories out of san francisco, dallas, and washington, d.c. donald trump is taking the stage in detroit to outline economic policy. from former chair laura tyson in just a moment. shery: stocks are slightly lower this afternoon, i continue hovering near all-time highs. meantime, crude climbing as opec's president for next to the current bear market will be short-lived. vonnie: in a bloomberg scoop, apple is unveiling a new apple