tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg August 11, 2016 4:00pm-5:01pm EDT
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>> all three u.s. stock indexes at record highs today, for the first time in 16 years. >> the question is, "what'd you miss?" >> we will break down the results from nordstrom in minutes. by onere joined professor who outlines the three ways the european union could unravel. >> u.s. retail sales probably will rise in july. we have the three charts you can't miss and tomorrow morning's release. we begin with our market minutes. u.s. stocks rising and climbing towards record hgihs. -- highs. all one mark the first time three indexes have closed at a record high since 1999. andt is a remarkable
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surprising fact. you would think that would be more common. >> think about what happened in 1999, the dot-com bubble. i tapped up mostly -- i'll was talk about most to see who has the most volume and what the biggest moves are. it was kind of shocking to see macy's with such a huge gain. i been talking about the story all day, that you don't see very for macy's. digit everybody else in the department stores is joining in. at macy's of 17%, jcp up 9, kohl's up 16. everybody else was up there, including nordstrom, which is about to come out with earnings, including ralph lauren. there are very few losers, not any kind of high percentage losers. trend there. simon property, general growth, well tower, these are down. if stores like macy's are going
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to be closing 100 out of 700, you can expect others to follow suit. not good for anyone anywhere near a mall. a selloff in the u.s. government bond market. there is the 30 year yield jumping. we had a 30 year yield auction. that is kind of the story with yield going up pretty high to their desk posted their highs of the day. the charge for the 10 year yield the same. it brings it back to levels we saw earlier in the week. i'm going to go south for our currency check and look at the mexican peso. this is a two day glimpse. the peso strengthened even after the central bank did not raise interest rates like it did last time around. it's now firmer against the dollar for the fifth straight day. pointed outrst word it is teslas 100 day moving average. you also have gains in emerging market current, specifically the
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russian ruble and colombian gains in oilto the prices. that down arrow means the dollar losing value against those currencies. mentioned oil prices, west texas intermediate rose over 4% today to its highest level in 3 weeks. there's been increasing speculation that oil-producing countries could do something to reduce supplies, so some optimism there. matt: sigh of relief here. scarlet: those are today's market minutes. let's take you into bloomberg. you can follow all the charts using the function at the bottom of the screen. the path of least resistance is up and the russian cell in the wake of the brexit vote was fairly brief. today, europe's stocks 100 or 600 index finally got past the unchanged line, and that would be the white line. we have showed her a exactly where it was before the brexit
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vote. it took 34 days for the stoxx 600 to get past the brexit selloff. a group,markets as that's the purple line, took six days and the s&p 500 took 10 days. joe: let's talk politics quickly. i'm talking at the bloomberg consumer confidence polarization index, which they asked republicans and democrats how they feel about the economy. this goes back to 1991. republicans are more confident when it's blue, democrats more confident starting essentially after obama's first year, it started to flip lou and we are now at the highest level of democratic confidence relative to republican confidence. the talk to peter atwater on this show a couple weeks ago and he was talking about this phenomenon. it's getting extreme and it also
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speaks to the sentiment and tone we are hearing from the campaign. let's of people pointing out how the gop convention was fairly negative and the democratic one was optimistic and i think you see it reflected in this chart. matt: i have kind of a deep dive into have we looked at market breadth of bloomberg. one of the functions you can use is weib. tabs, top these movers, new highs and lows, you can click into various tabs and from there i will go into the s&p 500 and click into 200 dma. that somethingee that scarlet pointed out yesterday, 78% of s&p 500 companies are trading above their 200 day moving average, which seems to show a lot of believe in this rally. if i look at another one, high low is a function i like to pull up. it shows the highs and lows in
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any equity indexed. i will put the drop down menu here to the s&p, and take a look at where we see highs and lows there. 33 new highs in the s&p 500 today. 52 week highs, that is. lows.ew we are at 6.5% as far as new 5-we2-week highs. of the stocks on the s&p 500 trading above their 200 day moving average, only 6.5 percent of the stocks on the s&p 500 have hit their new 52-week highs. scarlet: nordstrom's numbers have just crossed. let's start with adjusted earnings per share, $.67 was higher than the anticipated seven cents. you'retop line, if looking at the revenue reported, $3.65 billion a bit shy of what analysts were looking for.
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nordstrom getting it done on the bottom line but not for the top line. sales in terms of comparable sales, that's where the company missed. revenue, that's for the company missed but in terms of comparable sales, total company comps, that was down 1.2%. comparable sales beat, but the actual revenue line missed. joe: stocks surging over 10%. comps, the full price out let down 2%. the estimate was down for 5.8%. nordstromlso, affirming net and comparable sales. it's not downgrading its outlook either, which is a relief to investors given what we saw last quarter with the retailers reporting. joe: seem similar to macy's. so much pessimism had been built up. all you need to do is have less
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bad and reaffirm the status quo. scarlet: nordstrom iraq, comparable sales up 1.1% when estimates had it down 1.3%. unexpected game on the aft -- off-price sales. matt: just pointed out -- what blake nordstrom said, copresident. over the fence several quarters, our team has been actively addressing our inventory, expenses, and capital. they are telling shareholders, we've got too much stuff in the back here and we are getting rid of it, don't worry. inventory building up in gdp and apparently nordstrom's. scarlet: you know where that inventory ends up. nordstrom track. -- rack. joins us.el regan
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what do you have for us? >> this is from a report by doug ramsey. he's a really interesting strategists, looks at a slew of metrics. he says he tracks three dozen valuation metrics on the marketplace. thishe looked at was -- shows a variety of valuation metrics that he looked at, dividend yield, and so on. he sus. basically if the market were to revert to the average valuation, what would that mean. 22%ould be on average a drop if we were to revert to what are the averages of these valuation metrics. a lot of people look at valuations and think eventually they will revert to the average. by then happen either denominators rising, earnings and sales and book values and
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whatever else you are looking at rising, or stocks coming down. in the absence of any growth in sales and book value and every other done on him later would be a 22% drop in the index, which gives you an idea of -- it is a record-setting day in the market. it is coming at some -- matt: this is the chart that looks like the.com one. -- dot-com one. >> it is the s&p industrials index. it's not the same as the industrial sector of the s&p 500. this is basically everything in the index except for financials, utilities, and transportation companies. looking at a price to sales ratio for that group, it's the meat and potatoes of the markets. scarlet: i remember him saying he likes to look at the s&p industrials when looking at this particular valuation because the data goes way back. by removing financials, you
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get rid of a lot of the noise from the financial crisis that made valuations blow out. it is the highest since the dot-com days. the question is, do things have to revert to the mean? when you look at these valuations on an absolute races, it's not the same as looking at them on a relative basis compared to the bond market. what do you look at to determine conviction in a rally, and have you compared conviction now with conviction in 1999? the breadth metrics, and a lot of people look at them. valuations to me are the bread and butter of how to look at what to expect over the next five years or so. high valuations won't necessarily cause a market to crash. there's a lot of debate about what really was the pin that pricked the dot-com bubble.
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high volumes caused the losses to be much steeper. especially when you look at a cyclically adjusted ratio that looks at earnings over a decade or so, a lot of research shows that the higher valuations are -- the less returns you can expect going forward over the next few years. that really allows prices and earnings to catch up with the market. joe: this chart just came out showing all the indices hitting all their highs at the same time. what is the general mood of strategists right now? people like to see that confirmation, they call it. they won a lot of people look at is the transportation index. the theory that you really need transportation stocks to confirm
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building and modernizing our roads, our bridges, our tunnels, our railways, our ports, our airports. we are way overdue for this, my friends. also secretary clinton promised to improve schools and water systems, expand broadband access and invest in clean energy. added one woman and seven men do is advisory committee. -- to his advisory committee. betsy mccoy, former new york lieutenant governor, and brooke rollins, president and ceo of texas public policy foundation. the international olympic committee says of the more 2000 -- more than two thousand from tests conducted so far at the
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rio games, none has come up so far positive for banned substances. the ioc says is planning to conduct more than 5000 doping tests during the games and says any positives will be handled by a special division of the court of arbitration for sport's. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: the great eu unraveling, the processed brexit turmoil he have supported -- boosted support for politicians. our next guest says it's unlikely to last. it could wind up destroying the european union. visitings in london, senior fellow at the european institute, part of the london school of economics and political science. he's also the author of "european spring, why our economies and politics are in a mess and how to set them right." following the brexit vote, the
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response from the eu elite has been to double down and push for further integration. you have witnessed that is a far-fetched and dangerous response. why is that? what i think is likely to happen is that brexit is going to weaken the euro zone economy, which is already pretty fragile, and i will exacerbate political polarization. britain leaving is going to exacerbate the dominance of germany in the eu and that in turn is going to provoke a backlash against germany and the and this research of nationalism you see in the united states but across europe, and a weak and divided eu that is incapable of dealing with all the many crises it faces. i think the risk of further unraveling is very great. matt: is there anything that can
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be done to counter the rising nationalism? itsee it's happening but doesn't look like any of the leaders who are very committed to the eu project have any particular ideas about how to keep the eu project together, or strengthen it in a way that doesn't also exacerbate the countervailing force of the anti--eu movement. is there a different approach they should be taking? philippe: what i advocate is that the eu ought to be doing less and better. in the eurozone there's all this obsession with creating new institutions. i think the real priority should be better economic policy, high living standards for everyone. a loser fiscal constraint, more investment, on wages.s i think lyrically the focus ought to be on what is the biggest concern of europeans at the moment, which is a
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cross-border cooperation on terrorism. instead of trying to force governments to take refugees they don't want, ought to be focusing on a voluntary scheme for willing government. doing less and better is the right way forward. >> what have been the shared economic benefits of the eu so far? i also wonder how we ended up at this stage, if the eu was a good idea economically for all the countries involved. philippe: the biggest benefits of the eu is the single market, increased trade -- >> what has that brought all of the countries that are members? what do they have to show for those great things? philippe: it has made them much richer. nobody's aware of how much are things to the
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eu. they see their living status stagnating. more generally, the people in britain and elsewhere who feel like they have been left behind by globalization and economic change blame the eu and immigrants for it. >> but do the spanish, italians, greek, are they richer but don't know it and have hit a bump in the road? philippe: they've all been members of the eu for many decades. they are richer than they otherwise would be thanks to the eu. at the same time, clearly, in italy's case suffered nearly two decades of stagnation. in spain's case, suffered a massive bust after the preceding boom. the recovery isn't proceeding
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fast enough. even though in both cases a of attitudes, national policies policies, some of the blame is to the euro zone. even when it's not, people are lashing out at all sorts of things which aren't responsible for their misery. in britain, where people were blaming immigrants for their misfortune, and it was probably more to do with trade with china or the financial crisis. philippe legrain, thank you very much. up, hillarying clinton spoke today on the future of the u.s. economy. also, quick check on shares of nordstrom in after-hours trade. the stock is up by more than 11%. ♪
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scarlet: hillary clinton and donald trump this week both gave economic policy speeches. this is a curated one-stop shop that just launched today on the bloomberg for the presidential election. you can check top news, top research with bloomberg intelligence. you can even check social media content. we have polls as well. i will click this and make it bigger. according to real clear politics, hillary clinton is polling with a 47.9% rating, while donald trump is polling at 40%. we have clips from "with all due
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respect" and other election coverage. >> i remember how much we tolowed brexit go meeting that vote. now i think we will be looking at this pretty much nonstop for the next 90 days. lending back in april, club and on deck capital got clobbered and people are wondering is this -- is this too. industry of lending completely doomed? wasinitial response negative. they are both at their highest levels in a few months. people starting to think that maybe this industry is not going away. they are still really low compared to where they have been. looks like investors are starting to get into them more. looking for a site where you can kiva.org allows
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you to do that. i don't want to forget the yuaniveniversary. officially the one-year anniversary of china's devaluation of the yuan that brought down the s&p. what i have here is china's share of global payments. you can see they were climbing up until that devaluation and have now come down with the value of the u.n. they broadened out the basket of currencies to which they compare the you when and as a result have been looking for some as pdr popularity -- spdr popularity, but just have not gotten it. scarlet: a lot of work still to be done for china. that does it in terms of our deep dive. coming up, friday brings us a full release of u.s. economic data. retail sales is coming up, what
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race ine presidential iowa is too close to call, according to the latest poll from suffolk university. 40% of iowa voters support hillary clinton. in a four-way race, trump leads clinton 37-36% with libertarian gary johnson at 6% and green party nominee jill stein at 3%. 70% of voters are undecided. the fbi has high confidence the russian government hacked u.s. democratic party groups according to a person familiar with the findings. the u.s. investigation into the hacks has expanded a stone evidence that other groups were
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targeted in addition to the democratic national committee and the democratic congressional campaign committee. there's been no comment from the fbi. moscow has repeatedly denied involvement. the atlantic basin in the united states will have the most named storms since 2012 with 5 to 8 strengthening into hurricanes. the national oceanic and atmospheric administration says 2 to 4 storms could be major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles per hour. year, five storms have formed in the atlantic. ariana huffington says she is stepping down as editor in chief of the huffington post. she says she will turn her attention to her startup, thrive global, after attracting investors in hiring staff. "the huffington post" was acquired by aol for $350 million in 2011. it's now part of verizon communications. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. scarlet: let's get a recap of today's market action. indexese major stock closed at record highs, the dow adding 118 points, s&p gaining 1/2 of 1% and the nasdaq claiming -- climbing 24 points. i like joe's party chart. all the indices rising. we have been seeing this pattern where we have these days where they go down on the same day stocks go up. >> nordstrom came out with earnings. along with the other department stores, nordstrom had done well today. now it's up 11% in the after-hours. it int: this is putting place to rally big time when trading begins tomorrow.
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nordstrom coming out with a bottom line that beat estimates in comparable sales, topping estimates as well. slew ofrow we get a economic data, including retail sales. also university of michigan survey. to break all that down and preview the releases and tell you what to focus on is bloombergs matt basel are. what are you looking at for tomorrow? >> retail sales report for the month of july, which will be big because -- because consumer spending is the only thing holding gdp up in the second quarter. we will get our first read on how that is carrying through to the third quarter. a lot of people expect the pace to moderate a bit. we got auto sales data earlier this month but we are going to be looking at retail sales excluding autos to see how the rest of it is doing. we are looking for a bit of a slowdown. we will see what happens. scarlet: is a correlation
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between auto and retail sales generally? one, so ily look at don't know. >> there definitely is. when people feel good, they buy cars and a lot of other things. scarlet: why don't we stripped out auto sales from retail sales? >> we already have the auto sales data so we kind of know that was pretty good this month. we want to see if consumers are spending on everything else as well. has been accelerating. it will probably go back down to that orange line in july. we might be losing a bit of momentum and it will be interesting to see if the consumer is still carrying that. if a consumer doesn't expect a lot of inflation, the consumer doesn't feel like he or she has to go out and buy something now because it won't be more expensive tomorrow? fear ofs the number one every economist and central banker. i don't think we see a lot of that in the data, and with
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inflation where it is, it is low but still positive. i don't think that is weighing on consumer spending as much right now. it's definitely keeping overall spending low just because you are spending less dollars because things are less expensive. something else we get tomorrow is the latest university of michigan survey. you're looking at a particular measure within this survey. what do we have here? last month 24% of people said they were in a worse financial situation than they were a year ago, which is the smallest share since 2007. if that goes down again this month, a will be the lowest since 2001. that is an incredible statistic because it means more and more people feel like at least things are not getting worse. that is a prerequisite to things getting better. look at the range, in the mid to late 1990's how much lower it was. 15% to 20%.
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that seems like a whole different era. >> this attracts the employment rate really well. the unemployment rate went a lot lower in the 1990's. >> so things aren't horrible, we are buying a decent amount of stuff, and prices aren't rising out of control. >> is pretty good. the flip side of that is that prices wants to see rise. that is the third major thing we will be looking for tomorrow. we got some data earlier this week for consumer survey the new york fed does. orange line. inflation expectations had been rising over the last several months and then they took this huge plunge after the brexit vote in july. with -- >> to the extent that we are
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buying british stuff. do economists attribute this relentless inability of inflation expectations to go up? inflation hasn't really gone up in the first place. that might be one factor. >> there's a lot of interesting theories and people trying to look at the data and what is the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations. it's hard to see it in the data. is, thehe hypotheses relationship just isn't as strong anymore. that's one reason why the fed is raise interesto rates straight they don't feel worried that inflation will run away to the upside or expectations will run out of control. >> could there be a feedback loop where the fed looks at the surveys and says people don't see inflation, so we are going to hold off, that people hear about the fed holding off and never hiking rates and then they don't see any inflation coming and it ends up being signals responding to signals? >> that's one of the most
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controversial theories out there, it turns everything the fed is doing on its head. it's unlikely the average consumer is paying as close of attention has joe does. >> that's a major counterpoint. they do watch the show. is everybody hoping for material inflation's? is anybody thinking its ok when we don't have material inflation? >> usually you see inflation expectations come mdown, what people are improving. there is an inverse correlation, trying to balance those two deires. -- desires. >> thanks for coming on. scarlet: coming up, the corporate bond boom. ♪
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scarlet: nordstrom shares surging in late u.s. trading after third quarter profits that topped estimates. sales narrowly missed estimates, coming in at $3.65 billion but comparable sales to top estimates. nordstrom's numbers come after a strong day for retail. macy's and kohl's also posting higher or better-than-expected earnings. delta says a small fire at its atlantic command center was partly to blame for the collapse that caused massive cancellations globally. the ceo tells "the atlanta journal" that 300 companies
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servers were not wired to backup power. dell -- delta canceled more than 2000 flights through wednesday after that network failure. start of that creates software and hardware to help utilities manage electric grids completed the latest round of funding. darren tech is not saying how much it raised. it started out with a $13 million investment with the same three investors. that is your bloomberg business flash. joe: "what'd you miss?" the massive boom and corporate bond street u.s. companies have sold $234 billion of all bonds issued this year in only seven weeks. earlier bloomberg television with the cohead of global fixed income portfolio management. he explains why he thinks the income market is looking a little, quote, bubblicious. >> you have a bank in the u.k.
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issuing loss absorbing securities and massive size and tons of demand for it at a time when the u.k. has exited the european union, and the prospects of recession are extremely high there. what is that tell you? currency.e currency markets are telling you there's a great concern there will be a recession in the next year or so in the u.k. massive rally in the gilt market. people want more and more yield. we feel this rush in demand for yield is something that will doesn't work until it work anymore, and like we saw pre-financial crisis, something usually doesn't and very well. >> the question i would ask you to begin and shape and frame this conversation, how would you define the credit bubble? what does that look like? we have written tons of books. credit and fixed income is a little bit different. >> 13% returns in high-yield.
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leverage.look at there's been a significant increase in leverage in corporate debt and as a result of that gives us a significant amount of concern. thirdly, you look at flows. in.mous flows coming it depends when in the economic cycle that is happening. david's happening early, it's very possible that those flows can lead to corporate investment as a result of the ability to borrow low cost, and taking advantage of a long cycle of economies. think about where we are in the economy right now. we are in the late stages of recovery in the u.s. in our view and that gives us concern. corporate margins in general other than today's announcement compress, and to the margins that are still very positive are ones being generated by more leverage. that give us signs concern. i would say the last sign that tells you something is increasing news, increasing
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bloomberg stories, whether it's more leverage, fraud, accounting issues. those are signs there's a lot going on in the corporate side, the companies are pushing harder and harder to generate margins when they are not naturally there. 20%art of that is issuance, of the whole year since brexit. you have the leverage piling on here. when the credit bubble turns, who is holding the losses? who will be at risk? game of musical chairs to a certain degree. who's caught at the end with the investment? in the end, you have institutions like ourselves, we will dynamically manage. people searching for yield, saying i can borrow at 0% rates or rates at my market -- markets and my rate in asia are negative and i will borrow money from the corporate market, those are the
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investors that get stuck. it's not today, it's not tomorrow. if we think about the risks out there in terms of slower growth, this margin compression is a return and we as bond investors, given that we think the fed will raise rates in december, that increase in rates is because we are seeing a bit of wage pressure in the u.s. economy. seeing some challenges in terms of hiring people. that's really good for the consumer and the job market is very healthy but in terms of corporations, that compression of margin is an issue and that is a leading indicator to recession. the risks are higher. when you are investing credit, you want to make sure you get compensated for that risk. >> i want to take you to credit versus sovereign debt. curve, it'sthe jtb been a hot potato.
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the question i would ask on credit, is sovereign debt going to drive credit, and at the moment, is demand going to come off in any way, shape, or form? we have tens auctions yesterday. demand was real strong all over again. will that go away anytime soon, and the sovereign drive credit in that regard? >> in traditional cycles, you typically don't have a situation where sovereign markets drive credit. in general, if you look at credit performance over time, in general when rates rise, they rise for a reason. they typically rise because you have a stronger economy. credit usually performs well in an increasing rate environment. we at goldman sachs think things are different this time, because of the impact that central-bank policy has had on markets. that is likely to end poorly. no one knows how it will end. this is unprecedented
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accommodation. if you look at the bank of it may past, they say, be counterproductive to have negative rates in our economy. in the event that they move to away from monetary policy, negative rates, more and more incentive for people to take those very low cost of financing and by credit related assets, they take that away. rates are likely to rise in the market and we think so much of the demand for risk assets, whether equities, credit, sovereign bonds, is driven by negative yields across the globe. to think that we are getting towards the end of that cycle, and as a result, we think this time the sovereign markets can have a pretty big negative impact on the credit markets in a way they did in 2013 for a short-lived period of time during the tempora 10 term. scarlet: -- temper tantrum. scarlet: this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: i'm scarlet fu "what'd you miss?" alibaba hosting its best day in six months. the straininger entertainment and cloud computing part of the business helped drive revenue up 59%, beating analysts estimates. joining us to discuss is our bloomberg asia co-anchor, betty liu. i feel like everyone forgets when it comes to alibaba that is not really comparable to a u.s. company. it's like amazon and a whole bunch of other companies wrapped up into one. betty: which is exactly what jack ma wants to do. as you were saying in the introduction, it's becoming a much more diversified company. the majority of the revenue
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still comes from e-commerce. the traditional business they started off with. and bought aon sort of the youtube of china. in digital media entertainment. revenue there quadrupled. >> this sounds just like amazon. amazon has cloud computing, amazon has content, videos, music. you cut me off right when i was about to say that. >> sorry. i've been doing that today. betty: cloud computing is becoming a bigger area. though forget that alibaba -- don't forget that alibaba -- jack ma has interest in different things, sports is one part. i believe they have a sports team, they're looking at sports assets. when is jeff bezos going to buy a football team? i don't know.
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jeff as a spaceship company. >> the 10,000 year clock. about when i think amazon, often times it seems when amazon earnings come out, the first thing people look at is the cloud business, this incredible cash cow and this is really the future. does alibaba feel that it doesn't get the credit for its diversification and people still think of it as basically just seeing a company where -- >> do you mean, does jack ma have a bit of a chip on his shoulder? yes. the company feels they are still seen as a china company, right, and they are just a chinese e-commerce company. jack ma has said specifically, they want half their revenue to come outside of china. that's one of their big goals. want to be expanding -- they want to be in the u.s., the middle east, and other parts of
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asia. they've gone on a bit of an acquisition binge as of late. i think in some ways they want to be seen as much more than just alibaba, the chinese e-commerce company. 83% still comes from china commerce, about 9.1% other worldwide but really we are talking about cloud computing there. they want to be able to diversify. remember they are not doing that bad in china. that's where their bread and butter -- >> well put. thanks, betty. catch betty at 7:00 p.m. new york time and 7:00 a.m. asia time for bloomberg daybreak asia. scarlet: coming up, what you need to know to gear up for tomorrow's trading day. ♪
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rise. retail sales expected to increase 10.5 percent. fixed assets expected to increase 8.9%, all from the month of july. >> i have my eye on germany tomorrow. we will see gdp and cpi figures coming out very early in the morning, if you're here on the east coast, about 2:00 a.m. we are looking for gdp to come out at a nonseasonally adjusted 2.8% year-over-year. >> lots of data in the u.s. tomorrow as we preview earlier. highlight will be retail sales, out at 8:30 a.m. the control group expected to rise 0.3% from the month before and of course we get ppi. we will see if there's any inflation pressure building on the wholesale front and we will get university of michigan consumer sentiment. it is expected to rise a bit. scarlet: look into ppi
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>> with the father of the man responsible for the orlando massacre doing at a hillary clinton rally? >> the campaigns are being questioned over a couple of spotted at the rally. >> trump had an expected supporter of his own. >> another controversial guest was spotted at a campaign rally. >> trump's campaign released a statement tuesday saying it disavows his support. ♪
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