>> with all due respect to all that has come after, john mclaughlin did it first and he did the best. ♪ ♪ mark: the pioneering political talk show host john mclaughlin has passed away. we will talk about him later in the show. a monmouth university survey has hillary clinton leading donald trump in florida among likely voters. a washington post poll of virginia voters that has really

turned heads shows hillary with a 14 point lead in virginia. an eight point lead for clinton among likely voters. the more you dig into this survey the worse things look for donald trump. compared to how romney did against president obama. among white voters, romney won by 24%. trump only leads by eight points. with veterans and military families, he is down by eight points in this poll. donny: clinton also leads him by 13 points among independents. even among republicans, there are warning signs for trump. he's leading clinton by 71 percentage points among republicans, less than romney.

in an interview in wisconsin, trump was defiant about the state of his campaign. donald trump: i have the biggest crowds. nobody has ever seen these kinds of crowds. when i left wisconsin the last time it was over for donald trump. donald trump was not going to win. then i went to new york and went to various places, i won a landslide. donny: what the implications for his campaign? mark: this is one of the worst polls he's had because virginia is an important state. to be down with independence and not to be consolidating the republicans the way romney did

and he can say everything is great my crowds are big. or he can say is encountered out before and i'll fight back. it is dangerous to assume an underdog posture and admit things aren't going well this early but i think this poll shows and the other surveys show he has no path in the electoral college. to fight his way back into this race. donny: the military number is important. the khan controversy is a defining moment. white educated voters romney took by 10 and trump is losing them by 16. the numbers are stunning. we didn't get into the geography. all the suburbs outside washington are overwhelmingly for hillary. you look at who takes the suburbs and that is usually who wins the election.

he's losing the women, he's losing those summers. mark: romney lost virginia even though he was winning among independents. how do you come back against hillary if she is going to run up the score and the urban vote and dominate the suburbs? if donald trump dominates the suburbs and cities, there's not enough rural white vote to come back with. donny: starting to see the difference between a professional campaign and a nonprofessional campaign. hillary has ground game out there and trump is giving speeches. mark: if virginia is this far

apart and we have super pacs going off the air in virginia, what about north carolina? what about georgia? tim miller talked about missouri. i talked to a strategist who said that missouri is in play. amidst all this talk about donald trump's demise, hillary clinton has a restarted her postelection planning. she announced a team that is going to be repairing for a white house tradition if she wins in november. it is going to be led by the former secretary of the interior ken salazar. it will include tom donelan and the former michigan governor jennifer granholm and long time clinton associates like maggie williams and near attendant. donny: i think this is a terrible mistake.

it's one thing to act like a winner. it's another thing to declare victory. there is a difference between presumptive this and arrogance. it's too early in the campaign to be saying how it's going to and. this did not feel right to me. mark: here's the upside of it. she's put together an impressive team of people. a lot of people will recognize a diverse group of experienced people. that says to people that hillary clinton has the experience people on her side. the other thing is she is trying to put trump away before labor day.

inevitability. you can do polls on who you think is going to win. because of the drumbeat of bad polls for trump she can do that. donny: who's donald trump's head of transition? chris christie. when was the last time we saw him? mark: his team is one politician who is now a wall or mia and she has a group of diverse people. she is running on experience. donny: if i'll get her husband are on david geffen's boat in croatia. the two most important people in this campaign around the country. donald trump has been putting down ballot republican candidates in awkward positions. we haven't talked so much about down ballot democrats who are trying to gain popularity. maggie hassan of new hampshire.

she was asked about hillary clinton's vulnerabilities. quest you think she is honest and trustworthy? maggie: i support her because her record demonstrates that she is qualified to hold the job. she has a critical plan for making college more affordable. >> but do you think she's trustworthy? maggie: she has a commitment always to something beyond herself. donny: her campaign clarified that she does see hillary is honest. with the other democrats have similar responses? did they think hillary clinton is honest and trustworthy? a spokesman for an kirkpatrick in arizona says yes she looks forward to the nation electing its first female president.

meanwhile john mccain is supporting donald trump but won't say if he'll trust the nominee with our nuclear weapons. ted strickland said yes. katie mcginty said yes. will every democrat have to stand up and asked this question? mark: this is a vital test for the donald trump campaign. can they put democrats on the defensive? we asked a lot of democrats to come on the show to talk about the e-mail controversy and they say let's move past it. they must produce tension between hillary clinton and the democratic nominee or they will

be on the losing battle in the earned media. donny: they had a very interesting pivot. people think she's untruthful. mark: i don't think she's going to improve her negatives but donald trump isn't either. the winner is going to have some numbers that you look at and say they couldn't possibly get elected. we come back, what would it take for a donald trump come back? we will look at that after this break. ♪

♪ mark: the conventional wisdom in some quarters is that this race is over. but the pendulum could be swinging back a bit. some people are saying it's too soon to totally write off donald trump. what is the path for donald trump to come back? donny: he has to put some heart in them. why is he down in louisiana? we never see him interact with his people. that would be a big step. to see his arms around people. yesterday he mentioned extreme vetting four times. it is an interesting twist on the way. there's no way to execute it. i wouldn't waste any more time on the economy.

even hardliner who is going to protect you. this is the scary part. if we had a horrible terrorist attack near the election, which scares me because if you're a jihadist you want him to be president so they do you cause one, if it's close enough people react purely with the right brains and the very thing that is temperament almost goes on its head. that scares the be jesus out of me. mark: i disagree about the economy. that has to be part of his message. how often you see donald trump laugh in public? how often do you see him show empathy or show emotion?

he has to have people think in a new way about him. the republicans i've spoken to say he needs to show himself as a full human being. last, show emotion, show empathy. people have to think this guy would be a good president because he has the character. we've seen donald trump show a full range of emotion. donny: other than on the golf course, have we ever seen him with his jacket off? i know it's not his style but you have to go out to people. go out and hug some people. mark: if there were crisis but anything that would be a test of leadership that would show how he would behave, hillary clinton has gotten away with being very cautious with his/her natural

inclination anyway. very few press conferences or interviews. if in an unscripted moment he could show himself as a full human being that has to be part of a comeback. donny: this is a once-in-a-lifetime chance for the jihadi's to put a guy like that in office. assuming that comeback doesn't happen, if trump loses, will he still be applicable force? mark: i don't think so. i don't think he will be interested in being involved. i think that like most presidential losers securely somebody of his age, he is done. he will pop up occasionally that he will build golf courses and his tall buildings. donny: i don't think he wants to

be remembered as a loser. i'm not saying this is rational. he has maybe as much as 50 million people who buy his words if i kill somebody on fifth avenue they would follow me. if he wants a place at the table for the rest of his life, he's not going away. mark: he will not go away but he will be a pop cultural figure and the new york figure. he will not be a political figure. donny: the first crisis that happens after the president speaks who will the media contact? this is now the voice for a group of americans that is

committed to him. mark: i'm tempted to bet on this. there are media reports that roger ailes is advising the donald trump campaign. is that a good idea? we'll talk about that next. ♪

donny: we are joined by two political heavyweights. rick davis and harold ford. thanks for coming in. let me start with you rick.

rick: i support republican candidates and i have through white entire career. starting with ronald reagan. i will be voting republican but i don't necessarily vote for everybody on the ticket. i will pick and choose from the top of the ticket down to the bottom. donny: it is been reported that roger ailes is working with donald trump on debate preparation. the campaign has denied it. i would love to hear your thoughts. harold ford: he probably could use any of my seeking yet. the question is will he take the advice. he has some questions around his personal conduct. donny: he is being decimated by women he just had to retire because of sexual harassment suits. as smart as this guy is, i don't know if i want the package. rick: if roger ailes is going to advise donald trump he better say something. the worst thing you can do is

drip drip trip the story. you either take the hint and say look the guy is on my team and i stand by am. he is a smart guy who built one of the most important networks of our time or he's not advising me. it's one of the other. there's no in between. harold: isn't this indicative of the trump campaign? rick: usually a new group advisors comes in and replaces the ones who just got thrown out. i think he can get advice from anyone he wants. this is an important high-stakes race and yet who is he going to listen to? does he listen to anybody? he listens to his own conscience, what there is of it. he makes decisions on the fly. whatever hits in that moment. he was that way all during the republic in primaries and he will be in this case. when he hits that stage, he's

making up as he goes along. mark: paul manafort is the campaign chairman. he has come under scrutiny for work he's done in ukraine. rick: i have not done any work in the ukraine but i have done work in eastern europe. mark: what you think of the general question of the scrutiny of the financial dealings of advisors? rick: in 2008 there was even more scrutiny. i cannot appoint anybody to our campaign would ever been a lobbyist because at that time the media scrutiny on lobbyists with such that they would find some client that you had that was fodder for media debate. we had a number of advisors who

wound up having to leave the campaign because of the history of clients that they had. charlie black and i were even the subject of tv commercials in northern virginia about our history is lobbyists. it is much dicier for anybody who is spent any time in washington that it is today. mark: does anything there seem suspicious? rick: i've learned a lot. he says that this was all pretty straightforward. presidential politics has this incredible ability to turn on those klieg lights and see right through your skeleton. this is the top of the sport. he's got a distraction. he's got a figure out a way to blow through that distraction or deal with it a try to knock it down. it will be interesting to see what role they take because the more you try to manage the press on this the more distracted from the real goal which is getting donald trump elected. mark: do these issues matter to

voters? and should they? harold: only because were talking about russia and eastern europe and eastern europe will have some currency. if people can connect the dots after mr. matt forte said none of this is true. people in the rust belts are going to look at these candidates and their policies and their temperament and say who is most suited to be president. donny: we saw a democrat running for office asked about hillary's truthfulness three times and she wouldn't answer. you think she's truthful? harold: yes. i have the greatest confidence that she will work with republicans and democrats alike who can believe in her and believe her word. donny: we have somebody there who thinks she was not telling the truth.

harold: she said she made a mistake. she admitted to it. is her entire career going to be judged by this? i doubt it. the fbi director also made a recommendation that no action should be taken. i can live without a mouse for she can as well. based on polling, voters seem to think that she has the better temperament the donald trump does. mark: do you think that the trump campaign could get more to have reporters ask tough questions? rick: it's more comment on donald trump to ask the tough questions. quit spending all your time talking about extraneous issues and put the heat on hillary clinton. when you go up and start picking on republicans and you are sharing time with litigating euro internal party issues, you

are wasting time. you want to spend 100% of your time with contrasting with your opponent. john mccain is on the ballot he's got a good campaign going in arizona. he is a tireless campaigner. he is going to do well. donny: stick around and we will continue this conversation after this break. ♪

♪ mark: we're back with the davis that rick davis and harold ford junior.

joining us now is casey hunt in studio. harold, we talked about this earlier. we talked about this earlier. if secretary clinton says this is over, what would you tell her? harold: no. there are 80 something days ago and anything can happen. if you look the state-by-state polling and with the demographics in the key counties that she has to win or yesterday well in, she should feel good about where she is. a lot of this has to do with people's resentment and rejection of donald trump. one worry i have is you want two strong candidates. you want to beat the other candidate, but when the other is running a campaign that lacks

purpose and vision and substance it almost pull down the other campaign. one of the challenges is to maintain a level -- it's like in sports. you get ahead 3-0, you can ask oklahoma city when you lose focus. we have to redouble the efforts every single week, if not every single day. i'm still contending that the winner, if it is donald trump on september 26, it changes the dynamic as romney did four years ago. mrs. clinton has to remain but only focused but a laser-like focused day after day. >> you obviously know senator john mccain very well having worked with him for a long time. you were talking about your vote down ballot. he is in such a difficult place at this point. i'm wondering from a personal perspective, what is he going through? have you spoken with him? ? what is the mindset?

rick: he has run five times for the u.s. senate, twice as president and a congressman in that state. he has been on a lot of ballots. he is the best-known politician bar none, bar hillary clinton, bar donald trump in arizona. if anything is valid is completely inflexible. who love him love him the matter what anybody says. those people who dislike him dislike him the matter what. you can get -- the cake is baked in arizona. all campaigns matter. i would be the last guy that says a campaign does not matter. he has to run for reelection in doing a great job. he has built a great campaign team. he has a lot of support from outside groups. the chamber of commerce, super pacs. he took over the state party with 1900 precinct people. he has done everything you do to say this is a model campaign of an incumbent in a bad incumbent year and what they need to do. he has not watched the parade go by. when you look at the numbers,

the last public polling he was double digits ahead of his opponent. he was significantly ahead of his general election opponent, which he will run ahead of donald trump and hillary clinton in arizona. when you say he has the campaign, every campaign is a campaign of matter what. he is well-prepared for victories in the primary and general. mark: trump give a foreign-policy speech about his readiness as commander-in-chief. i want a yes or no answer. just as a gut. do you think of donald trump was here right now and he -- and we asked him who the prime minister of great britain is, with you know? casey: i would give him the benefit of the doubt. harold: probably not. mark: those of the kinds of things that voters cannot care less about. they will vote for him with our without his ability to name the

yugoslavian racquetball champion. trump is down eight points. mark: the clock is ticking and we get later in the game. his lead is growing against him. what is it like that you have been there. what is it like better candidate everyday get polling data multiple times a day and be behind? rick: the best example was bob dole's campaign in 1996. literally from the day of the convention, the high point, you got within five points of bill clinton to the rest of the campaign were that was her high watermark. every single day your polling came back and said you are losing ground, not gaining ground. guys like bob dole, they are creatures of the political system. they have seen these polls before.

they have won and lost elections. he had a maturity that said i go out every day, hammer away, and ultimately came to the conclusion he could do more positive for the down ballot races and committed all the resources, in his campaign the rnc, that senate committee, the house committee to do that instead of pursuing to the bitter end is need to be

president. mark: what is it like when you're behind all the time? harold: it is not good. one of the differences with the dole campaign, republicans did elevate paul ryan. it would be a different kind of race. you talked about it earlier. how do you think about rejuvenating and changing the course of your campaign? both had positive things and perhaps he will listen. i doubt he will listen. you have to look at the data and say this is not where we want to go. run as an outsider. it doesn't take much thinking to rick: i would find very little to disagree with. mark: casey will stick around for more. if you're watching us and washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio at 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

♪ mark: that casey hunt. let me start with you. at what point do the folks down ballot start to cut ties with mr. trump? is a moment where they go we have to say this thing down ballot? >> i have not sure we will see people cut ties. we have certainly seen a change after the convention. i had pollsters telling me before the convention they were not seeing trump's affects that affect down ballot. after the convention this has changed. i don't hear pollsters saying trump is not going to affect down ballot races. as he has tanked so have republican candidates he is down 10 points and pennsylvania and pat toomey has been behind for

the last five holes -- polls. he can run nine points ahead of trump and he is still losing that race right now. casey: i'm curious of the challenge in a place like pennsylvania with trump trying to separate these noncollege, white, male voters for the most part who live in western pennsylvania with a republican to live in the philadelphia suburbs. people who voted for mitt romney. do you see a way for a person like pat toomey death threat that needle? -- to thread that needle? eliana: we have seen recently he is campaigning in the philadelphia suburbs. this was someone champion by the club for growth as a conservative purist who won an incredible race in 2010, now these in the philadelphia

suburbs with a moderate democrats. his views on trade, he is a pro-free trader. he has not endorsed trump and says he will not make a decision until he is in the voting booth. he is doing is incredibly difficult to step -- two step. it will be difficult for him not to like he is acting like a politician, but he is trying. i think it's obvious the voters he is keeping trump as far away as he can. it is a tremendously difficult needle to thread. donny: you are out on the trail. there was a theory early on that says on some level trump does not want to win. it is percolating more and more with his behavior. anything hit a nerve with you there? there are a lot of things adding up that says maybe it's not as crazy as it is. casey: he doesn't want to lose. i understand, but they are opposite, right? erik: --

donny: no, he doesn't want to lose. he is in a tough bind. one interesting thread to follow and i think is something you are seeing is that robby mook set a fundraising e-mail today that said we don't just need to be him, when you don't love him out of the water. we need to make sure there isn't something to the argument that the election was rigged. we are talking about pennsylvania. a fight about election observers in that state. i think that is something that is starting to bubble to the surface. trump has acknowledged the possibility he could lose in a way that is much more direct. i am not sure that means he will be saying ok, i didn't want to win. i have trouble believing that. mark: he seems lucky congress is in recess. if members of congress and staff are buzzing around talking every day, they would get themselves

into a lather over the state of the presidential race and the impact it could have. how much communication is there now between sitting senators and staffers about what is going on over the recess? eliana: every sitting lawmaker virtually is keeping as far away as possible from the trump campaign as it's in a state of freefall. you can be sure all they are on recess they are asked about this in her home districts. i'm not sure it's any better. surely they are not in the news as much but uninsured is any better for these members themselves. every member of the republican party is an intermittently

difficult position. mark: you go to the question of if they are taking it for granted. i don't get the sense hillary clinton plans on taking much of a vacation. kasie: she is basically spending the next couple of weeks in california. all the vacation spots raising money. that goes back to that e-mail, we are behind on this. as you have talked about quite a bit on the show, one of their greatest fears along has been complacency. complacency in donors and voters. there might be some moderate republicans who want to go vote down ballot and not noting the presidential race. they want those people. mark: yes, no questions. does hillary clinton seem tired? kasie: the last time i was out

with her, no. mark: trump? kasie: more than usual. eliana: hillary clinton does not seem tired. i think she has a fair bit of energy. trump to me, he doesn't seem tired. he has a frenetic way about him. to me he seems more resigned to a loss than he ever has before. and perhaps ever more than he has in his entire life. mark: i think we sometimes forget some of the normal rules of politics apply to him. every candidate i've ever covered has made the most mistakes when they are tired. i think trump is tired. donny: and he seems down to me. kasie: that is true clinton. he made a mistake with fox in her most intense campaign in a while. that was exhausting. we were on this long bus to work. -- tour. she is been hitting one event, one target everyday. donny: we are watching unscripted speech is and you just feel it. it is very interesting. mark: when we come back we will hear more of kasie's tale from the trailss. you will not believe what you hear from her coming up next. ♪

♪ mark: back now with kasie can't.

she -- hunt. she wrote -- stick around with us to talk about it. tell us about the overall the thesis about hillary clinton in men. kasie: the reality is it trump is going to win this election, if he has any shot, he will be because there are more noncollege white voters who show up. that is what the clinton campaign has been nervous about and why they've been laying defense in a place like pennsylvania that has been fools

gold for republicans. if they vote republican in larger numbers than expected, who knows? you can have a surprise. the discussion they could turn both ohio and pennsylvania followed by wisconsin and michigan, which is what they need, is tricky. if you look at what she has been doing the last couple of weeks, yes, they are focused on that. her events are almost universally aimed at this particular group of people. mark: trump does a rally in an arena. take us through some of the recent postconvention photo ops. kasie: they have a lovely photo display. starting in pennsylvania, this is a wire cutting factory. everything was covered in dirt at this factory. props to everyone that set that up. the point is it's a place that is storied. you see the name of the place and you understand what is going on there. the depth of the issues with the fundamental changes in the economy. guys like the ones in those photos used to be able to support a family in that town with one job. that is harder now. she is saying we care about you, we are advocating for you. the next one, denver, colorado. she went there. knotty ties. they make ties in america. they are trying to hit donald trump there on the fact he is outsourcing and making his ties in china.

got a similar thing going on in las vegas. this is where she is touring the mojave electric company with ahead of the national chapter of the contractors. a union group. the things that titans photos together is think about the states. denver colorado, las vegas, nevada. diverse places where we think the electorate is gone because there are so many hispanics. she is sending that same message to working as whites. mark: wire cutting, thai manufacturing and electrical. kasie: take a guess what the next one is. this is the st. petersburg, florida. the three daughters brewery. it is family-owned. bottoms up. donny: what is amazing is trump

doesn't have any of these. the more you think about it, the only optics of trump is standing in front of the rallies. this is 101, meat and potatoes optics stuff. you don't see him with people, with human beings. you see him up on stage, period. mark: of all the things they are mystified about the trump campaign, this i put at the top of the list. is against you not drive message normally. he is doing one today in wisconsin, but he is doing rallies they don't place in the context of interacting with regular people. she is meticulously done that since the convention. kasie: this also puts her in small group places. they don't have to build big crowds, not putting themselves into a position where people are comparing apples to apples. she is stronger in these settings. trump -- they try to little bit of this in iowa and new hampshire. it was in a setting. donny: he doesn't want to do it.

even at the convention he flew back. he wants to be in his apartment. bill clinton lived for these moments. hillary does it because she has to. trump do it. kasie: she has gotten an incredible amount of experience. when everyone was chasing the scooby van in iowa. they have built up her comfort level in this. this is something that plays well. i was picking up local newspapers. after events like this they will land on the front page. trump's rallies will but it's a different kind of election. mark: give people a sense of the scale of her traveling party compared to mitt romney. kasie: it is remarkably different. this is where you are seeing the trump effect magnified and the difference in how they have a traveling press corps and the access the trump is allowed -- access the press is allowed. the standards for trump are different.

he isn't flying the press around in his plane. you don't have the kind of day in day out access. i would save a labor day when it really hit the was doing events, you are flying around in a relatively large commercial jet that is full in the back with press, including tv crews getting on and off the plane. that is not happening now. there was a small group that travels with her every day. mark: a rotating group. thank you very much. up next, we pay all mods to a political tv giant right after this.

mark: issue 12. the mclaughlin group announced

that john mclaughlin has passed away. he was 89. on our scale of 0-10, 10 being absolute metaphysical certitude, what are the chances he would entertain us every sunday morning? let's roll the tape. >> here is the host, john mclaughlin. >> issue 1. on a doomsday scale of zero to 10, 10 meeting absolute metaphysical doom, total wipeout, nothing remaining. which in the pennsylvania avenue will drive the public policy agenda for the next two years? capitol hill or the white house? the answer is capitol hill. what happens next, fred barnes? also on the big losers, the tired, the poor, the huddled masses. the homeless, the wretched refuse. on a political probability scale of zero to 10, 10 meeting

metaphysical absolute certitude -- >> the klansman is a good candidate. >> what you know, jack? that began in? bye bye. ♪ mark: the father of almost every political show on television, including this one. donny: probably the first show i ever did. just a nice guy. i was feeling a credit we intimidated. mark: the invented cable news talk shows and an incredible force. coming up on bloomberg west, mark fields. until tomorrow, donny and i will be here. ♪ avtk"0

♪ rishaad: it is wednesday. it is august the 17th. this is "trending business". i am rishaad salamat. ♪ right.: live in tokyo, beijing, and shanghai this hour. bojyen weakening, a former official said they are going to need to change tact. linkissing