>> who will succeed vladimir putin? we asked the russian president that question in an exclusive interview. g-20mic leaders warned the that the rising tide of protectionism is threatening the global economy. room for further easing? conducts a comprehensive review of its policies and their effectiveness. this is "bloomberg surveillance" along with manus cranny.

tom keene and francine are off today, it being labor day. manus: let's get straight to the bloomberg first word. >> the head of japan's central bank says new ideas are not off the table. declined to rule a new initiatives today. the bank of japan is reviewing its policies to see if they are effective. and japans of china are leading today as tensions rise in the east china sea. they will talk on the sidelines of the g-20 summit. byan has protested patrols chinese warships near japanese administered islands. north korea has testfired more missiles. they fired three ballistic missiles off the east coast of north korea. south korea's president criticized the north for what she called provocation.

putinn president vladimir has continued -- agreed to continue talks over a cease-fire in syria. secretary of state john kerry said the russians walked back on a part of the agreement that was agreed to earlier. for the first time, chancellor in aa merkel's party lost state election. her popularity has plummeted since her decision to allow large numbers of refugees into the party. the speculation is that steve -- she will still run for a fourth term next year. this is bloomberg. much.thank you very let's get some breaking news. some data from the eurozone. coming retail sales through. 1.1% increase month on month.

the retail sales year on year, 2.9%. the estimate was for 1.8%. this follows weakness in the competent pmi numbers. an hour or so ago, we got that, but it was still expansion. manus: you know what is amazing with all of the data coming through? we will talk about the u.k. data in a moment. brexit, what brexit? that is the caveat. put the pound up there because we had our data as well. record jump in the u.k. purchasing managers came in from a seven-year low. you have cable in the middle of your screen. the dollar is down. the composition is down. composite is down.

dollar is just that little bit softer. everything is on the table. is he going to you turn on negative rates? the market has raised. net long position onions are the are the mostn since 2008. you have swedish krona -- i'm getting my currencies mixed up. [laughter] manus: the ecb this week, carney in front of parliament. the swedish krona is strengthening against the dollar. anna: it is going to be a busy old week. markets in asia were a bit acrid looking. they were focused on what the fed would do with the latest jobs data. it was the disappointing data from the u.s.

we had a stock rally running out of steam a little bit, as we go into europe. the u.k. stockmarket underperforming quite considerably today. the bank stocks have been quite a wait on that index -- weight on that index. we will bring off that number and we have gold in there. manus: we bring you all sorts of measures of volatility. one that we've got is bond market volatility. have a look at this. this is bund market volatility. up she goes, down she goes. the smallest bandwidth of volatility in the bund market since 1991. i won't ask you or our guest where they were in 1991. two thirds of the german bond market is beyond the reach of

the european central bank. will mario draghi do something? anna: 1991. manus: i was trading pork bellies in 1991. anna: that's exactly what i was thinking about. joining us for the hour is james foley -- jane foley. great to have you here. let's talk a little bit about what we have seen coming out of the g, what caught your attention. ande has been a lot of news bilateral talks taking place on every front. jane: one thing that really stuck out with me was the mention of the gini coefficient. there was a mention that this has extended beyond the warning up to seven. this is really, really timely. , you take theeen

u.s. election, the lead up to you go toion -- if europe, we see far right, far left, we see unhappiness over the weekend in germany, too -- as the spanish prime minister pointed out this weekend, there is a rise of unhappiness that is perhaps based on income and wealth inequality. we have seen that come through in politics. the g-20 are recognizing this position, where wealth inequality is seen as populism and a movement away from establishment politicians, which is affecting a large part of the world and this is a really big topic in the world. manus: if we look at g-20 and the side conversations, she's in and abe.ijin ping

is this the moment when the penny dropped that there is a stagnant acceptance? jane: for many economists and politicians, that is the message for the last five years. we have been talking about secular stagnation for quite a long time. manus: a lot of them did fight back against that. jane: well, maybe. but you look at this year and a big discussion as to whether or not the government should be using fiscal policy to stimulate growth. it is the recognition that policy is being used. supporters are moving away from establishment politicians and it makes it much more difficult to do structural reform, which could potentially help to soothe some of these issues that we have. anna: we want to get your

thoughts on many subjects. we will put that on hold for the moment. we are going to talk about where interest rates should be in the united states, get your insights on that. we are going to talk about brexit, much more to come. jane foley sticks with us on the program. manus: ample room for further easing. those are the words of governor kuroda. he is keeping his options open, everything on the table. we are going to talk japan, growth, and the boj. ♪

cranny.'m manus alongside me is an edwards. francine are

having a well-earned break. >> according to people with knowledge of the matter, the final vacancy on ceo jeff bailey's management team would be filled for the investment bank chief position. billion -- mario draghi is trying to -- alt is trying to is tryinge -- altice to overhaul. samsung may spend up to $1 billion to replace all of the galaxy note 7 phones that were found to have been able to caught fire and exploded. that is the bloomberg business flash. anna: several bilateral meetings happening today on the final day of the g-20, including a meeting

between prime minister shinzo abe and president jane xi jinpi. manus: what are we expecting today. >> just let me start with some breaking news out of the sidelines of the g-20 summit. we are just hearing that saudi arabia's energy minister will be making a significant related to the energy sector in about 20 minutes, from his hotel. we don't have the details of what that will become a we are just hearing from a source that the announcement will be significant. this comes as saudi arabia and russia agreed to work together to ensure oil market stability. that after the deputy crown prince of saudi arabia met with the russian president, vladimir --in, in hong joe on sunday on sunday. gzhou on sunday.

we are watching for what comes out of that talk on sunday. another key focus is, as you mentioned, the meeting between president shinzo abe and -- from minister shinzo abe and president xi jinping. that is happening this evening. we are looking at that closely. given that this is the last day of the summit, we are going to be hearing from president xi shortly with a wrapup statement. anna? manus? shery, think you very much. governor kuroda says new ideas are not off the table. he made the comments about the boj's current review of the policies. governor kuroda: a lot of people say that trade brings about unemployment, particularly in

the developed economies and more mature economies. that is just plain wrong. trade accounts for a very small percentage. manus: that obviously was not mr. kuroda, but the essence of what he said was that he rejected the idea that there would be a reduction in the scale of monetary policy. however, the market was somewhat disappointed. affectsey is with us, strategist at rabble bank -- fx strategist at rabobank. in my underestimating the japanese? , the market went negative for his interest rates -- negative with interest rates. the market has been very skeptical about whether japan could go anymore. there was quite a big backlash politically against those reports. consumers were saving more in order to get to the pension at

the end of the line. there were reports of a big glut in the sale of safes, at the time, with people moving into cash. with respect to quantitative easing, a third of all that spending -- the market was saying, people aren't going to be wanting to sell it with all of this supply. anna: what do you think is next to the boj? we heard earlier the boj may not be expected to go further negative down that rate road. they are focusing more on assets, buying other stuff. jane: i would agree with that. i think the political backlash against negative rates is there. i don't think you can go further with the negative rates for now, at least. interesting, though, with the etf's, it is something like a top-five owner of 82 of the shares.

even that, people are beginning to say, hold on, at some point, enough is enough. for now, i think they will extend the bond buying program in some form. manus: let's talk about the yuan. we have the actual trading volumes and the daily reference rate. every time we see a rally, every time we see a rally in the yuan, the market does not believe the ability -- i'm being subjective that thes it fair market does not believe the ability of the boj to suppress the drop in the yuan? jane: i think that's exactly right. if you consider the chinese economy -- bad loans in china are now at record levels -- we have had stimulus this year and through previous years through debt creation. the market as skeptical as to whether or not that can be extended -- sustained.

the market is looking at what else is there that can stimulate it and keep it going? currency becomes the alternative. anna: you think they would want to see controlled depreciation from here of their currency? controlled being the operative word. jane: this is the real tricky situation. another way to argue it from their point of view is that they've got low inflation. , they go back a few years had very low inflation. we saw a significant depreciation of the euro. we saw the yen depreciate, as well. the renminbi was being dragged out at the same time because of the u.s. dollar. the chinese are now saying, enough is enough, we've got to allow our currency to sit. anna: thank you very much.

jane foley stays with us on the program. coming up in the next hour of "bloomberg surveillance." manus: we have admin shane from shing from bnp paribas. this is bloomberg. ♪

welcome back, everybody. i'm anna edwards with manus cranny in for francine lockwooaa

and tom keene. let's get to u.k. politics. may has had 50 days at number 10 during which she has done a deft job of obscuring her vulnerabilti."es ities."erabil the suggests that she is in a honeymoon period. we have jane fully from rabble bank -- rabobank. this is the political story. taking our time to work out what brexit means. in the meantime, the data in the u.k. is really bouncing back. jane: it really is. we did see some of the weakness

right after the referendum. that was an overreaction. that immediate data was an overreaction. whatever way, even if it is an overreaction, it is a relief that we have not seen this aggressive weakening of data in the last six or so weeks. we have seen improvement in manufacturing, construction all looking better. one thing that i would be very concerned about is the indications on the and -- on investment. while retail sales have been good, the construction industry, etc., etc., there has been survey data on investments. that is a good indicator of medium-term growth. manus: one of those soliloquies of investment is the japanese warning at the g-20, who -- we've invested heavily in your country, make sure you get a good deal.

intimating about the brexit. , i'man fx perspective still tempted to ask you, do you sell these rallies in euro sterling? do you sell these rallies? the is saying that a similar recession will be avoided in the to the i'm referring services number, a record jump. anna: that is shown in the chart next to you, isn't it? the pound bouncing. jane: whether or not you sell the pound really depends on your timeframe. if you were a medium-term investor, you should be really cautious, indeed. we know that there are going to be difficult times. we know that article 50 has not been put in place. we know that there were a big question marks about immigration. we know that if the door is closed to immigration, that

could have a negative knock on for some businesses. anna: jane, think. jane foley stays with us. manus: let's check in on the price of oil as we had to break. we are waiting for the imminent announcement from the saudi oil minister. we are getting a big boost from that expectation of that significant announcement. rating at 49.30. we ratcheted almost $.10. what will the saudi's say? we know the russians and the saudi's are in strong conversation. anna: they already talked about working together for oil market stability. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i'm a man is criminal. in edwards is with me. we're talking about having a deal.

>> reduce prime minister theresa may comic key promises made. imigration proposals made boris johnson, now secretary. told allow people to move the u.k. if they have sufficient skills. in spain, more pressure on caretaker prime minister. rivals hardening their opposition. it could be forced into a third election in september. turkey said islamic state has lost all territory along the border with syria. so-calledom the caliphate from the outside world. syrian rebel allies launched an against them last month. a vote on the future of chinese roles. a seat in the city legislator for the first time.

record number of votes. hong kong's biggest election since the pro-democracy protest two years ago. after the g-20 summit, president obama will meet with south asian leaders. trying to assure the may trade agreement can get through congress. the white house still can make a strong case for the economic rebalance of the region. than me 600 journalists and analysts in more than 200 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: russia energy problem lost 80% of the value over the decade. vladimir putin said he is happy to leave the longtime ceo at the helm. he spoke with bloomberg editor john mikel wait in a -- john mikel wait in an interview. >> if i look at a company like

this, in dollar terms, it is is worth lessom than 1/5 of what it was 10 years ago into it has fallen from the top. you have had the same manager running it for 15 years. him anotheren five-year contract. what i am saying is you are not as tough on the business people running the oil side as you might be on the other people. do you think -- why have you put up with this? you are a famously efficient man. pres. putin: this is an obsidian -- obvious fact. the russian economy. russian energy. does is part of the russian energy system.

one of the gazprom functions is to secure safe passage for autumn and winter maximums to supply companies. gazprom valuation -- this absolutely does not worry us. we know what gazprom is worth and will be worth in the coming years, despite for example the development of sarin gas -- shale gas in the united states and other regions of the world. pipeline gas will always be cheaper in gazprom is increasing its exports. look at gazprom's reports, especially for the past few months.

sales are rising. i am certain this will be case in the teacher. why? because in the near future, development of alternative energy, when you look at the environmental demand, there is tosource other than natural us. as well, perhaps there is nuclear energy but there are efficiencies here and there are opponents of nuclear energy. country, the russian federation. carries all the functions it has been assigned. that the management has been a sign. of course there are issues and problems, we see them. but i know the gazprom manager is resolving these issues and the interests on the world market. , fully, that well

is another question. many say it needed to be more flexible. changed theld have price depending on the current state of the economy. it is not even like trading oil. it is a separate business. this means that producing structures must assure they can sell at that price. >> russian president vladimir putin. saudi arabia and russia have agreed to work together. the two biggest crude producer stopped short of offering a proposal. saudi arabia could be coming shortly from the g-20. froming in now a reporter bloomberg in moscow that has

been working very hard on in interview with president put in. good to have you on the program. his opinion has lots of good things to say about gazprom. >> that is right. what we heard from the synod there was sort of a very russian interpretation of what capitalism into companies are about. when we asked him very directly how can you tolerate this? how can you tolerate a manager with an of the company over 80% drop in the sharp this but to slip that is not the point. the appointive gazprom is to oversee if you like russia's natural resources and in this civic case it is gas reserves. be very loyal and they have been together for a long time. you have two things combining haired together and certainly

there is no sense from president putin that mr. miller's job is in any jeopardy whatsoever even though there might be other changes going on in his inner circle. >> he seems to be safe. thatdent put in doing interview, we know what gazprom is, what it is worth and he does not really care what the market thinks anyway. >> that is exactly right. yes. or president clinton, shareholder value is not necessarily -- for president putin, shareholder all is not necessarily something he cares about. it was suggested in the course of the interview they are looking to sell more of that next year but again this is -- the purpose of these companies is to really sort of bolster or support president clinton's concept of what makes -- concept ofutin's

what makes russia a great company. >> thank you, john. the mark ciba stone upon -- in that discussion in terms of the kind of man you could do a deal with hand etc.. still, it was the society that pulled the rip cord. >> that is right. yes. was not if you serve in his praises. we will have to wait and see what comes out of that press onference of the g-20 later today. it is interesting looking at mr. relationship with world leaders and looking at the g-20 sort of family photograph earlier today. he is the longest-serving, most experienced of all the g-20 leaders and when we look at his foreign-policy in regards to it, he is in need powerful position

as he has been for a long time. >> john, we getting breaking headlines. ministersn energy signed an agreement in china. of course, we're waiting to see the details on that. suggesting they and the russians, the two beasts as it were of the energy market, no impact on the market could be had unless there was some kind of agreement between the two. saudi hitting its maximum production. $49.10, so tantalizingly back towards $50. is this a new, progressive president putin reaching to the east and middle east? about that.k him whether russia is becoming more or has become more of an asian

country under his administration, certainly under the last two years with a pivot to asia and the ukraine sanctions. he sort of says, russia has nation and a european country. if you look at russia's relationship china, it is a pretty one-sided relationship there. a couple of years ago, supposedly russia did not get that much of a deal from the chinese when it came to the to china.f russia gas when you look at the chinese relationship, there is a certain amount of vulnerability but when it comes to the middle east, russia has clearly established itself in syria again as a significant player in the region. in the oil market, there was a lot of talk about the need for stability and production but when we asked about iran, he suggested he does see room for

iran to keep increasing production as well. what he was sort of relaxed about the idea that iran might not necessarily kind of right away, he is sort of having it both ways to a certain extent. >> thank you very much. our executive editor of international government joining us there from moscow. they are keeping us waiting on the details. they've agreed to something but are not telling us. saudi-russia discussed. maine is: this is the first hint in terms of what it is. one of the greatest veins is the cost of getting that stuff out of the ground. it is technology, the first headline. anna: do not miss our special program with vladimir putin this afternoon 5:00 p.m. london town, 12:00 p.m. if you are in new york. manus:: if you are --

we're going to talk politics. angela merkel. the first defeat in the state by the populist afd party as the country's first e-mail chancellor. she had her day? anna: we spent to the governor director in berlin. this is bloomberg. ♪

alternative from journal -- anna: it highlights the strength of the backlash against the open

border refugee policy. manus: let's go to berlin. the director of the school of evidence. great to have you with us. is this the beginning of the real challenge to the open door policy of angela merkel? backtrack intoo 2017 on her immigration policy? >> i do not think so. let's put it in perspective. we call it is one of these smallest in germany, 2% of german population. 1% of gdp. unemployment is relatively high-end yesterday 150,000 votes, that is always counted or the far right day of the party. so it is part of the broader story about merkel but it is not a game changer or anything of that kind. changer, togame take the other side of it, to suggest perhaps this is for home state.

this is a marshy is campaign. voters and seem to be expressing opinion about a key policy and her popularity is falling so even if this is not critical to what happens at a broader national level, what does this tell us about the popularity of her party and her policy? >> look, you're right in the sense it is part of a broader story. it started with one million refugees flowing into germany. all of the stopped in 2016 and since then angela merkel has recovered. marge, there, and were election and more important states. angela merkel's party did not do well. yes, there is criticism but you should never forget there is no real air she could appoint if she were to step down. if you look at the polls, merkel's popularity might've gone down but she is still unchallenged in germany. one and two people still want her to re-run again in 2017. and it is still not a big thing

where we could talk about a decline in popularity. so i would be relatively relaxed and saying this is regional, germany has challenges but she is going to run a 2017 and i am quite certain she is going to win. manus: hold that thought, you said she is going to win. we have breaking news. from the saudi-russian meeting. ae saudi oil minister making statement. russia and saudi arabia have taken a big step toward bringing the oil market into balance. there is a reference. of course, i will follow the oil minister. a reference to technology. it says they must cooperate with russia. this is the price of oil at the moment in the united states. we are ratcheting higher as the morning trade goes through. anna: let's come back to on this separate subject. the oil market.

what do you assume angela merkel is going to do at that incentive. stands for another term, you have said there is no other alternative for her party. are you expecting clarity on this bike december? tactical move. whether she will announce her candidacy in december, january, or february. i suspect she will make it clear by the year she will run. will come statement as something to follow. something to follow. some things have to be monitored. the deal with the refugees from turkey needs to be monitored, the deal with president ever one is difficult. --president of the one erdogan is difficult, but that could change. itself, merkel has to deal with brexit, merkel has to deal with the way we might face another discussion with greece.

this will keep her busy. people look at leadership in crisis, it will stand out. that is: a the research which is important these days. anna: thank you. joining us from the school of governors. director in berlin. going throughbeen some headlines going out on the subject of oil. ordinateudi agreed to joint action to steady markets. russia-saudi cooperation will have a critical impact. -- wci upt we see wc by three points. >> up all the way across. anna: we're looking for game changers, people thought they would come in algeria. more have been waiting for balance. various deals. one thing we know for sure, a whole history of the markets.

often deals do not come about. often deals do not have the water potentially promise. i think the markets are very encouraged by this. >> in the short-term. manus: jane foley thank you very much. anna: let's stay with going on in the markets over the world. oil is the big story, up 3.5% wci as we said. on wci. where we are more in a moment. this is bloomberg. is there

♪ manus: i am manus cranny with the anna edwards. , and francine are off today. anna: we have news coming out with the russians and saudis. lacking in detail. lines coming through. russia and saudi to form a working group to monitor the oil market. that coming to us from interfax. russia and saudi have discussed different options. including a possible

output-freeze. saudi and russia took a big step to put the oil market in balance. this is a keyword, putting -- bringing it into balance. russia is ready to join. russia is ready to join the decision on a freeze. that is one of the essential lines. let's bring in ryan chilcote, he on all thingst russian. it looks like the market is verbally moving toward a state setting for a freeze. ryan: they said they have agreed to coordinate joint actions. they said there are a number of concrete instruments they can use to coordinate their action. they said they'd discussed the possibility of a production freeze. what they did not do when they started speaking at this briefing at the g20 as they have not agreed to a production freeze, even the two of them abouter, they represent

20-22 percent of the oil market. a little bit short of a detail the marketless, obviously rose more than 8% between 8:00 and 10:00. still in the $48 range and it has hung on to some of those gains. anna: up to 3.4% of bci. taking this seriously. if they are going to form this working group and get together in october, obviously an lg area everybody is getting together on the 20 something september so if you're trading oil, would you have to be asking yourself is what are they going to do in algeria if they are meeting again in out over question mark does that mean the idea of an output freeze in algeria is out the cards? i am not sure if that is the idea but it could be interesting. where does it leave iran? that is what scuffle things before. the saudis might be on the same page.

has note oil minister spoken today but the international head of the iranian oil company, the national iranian oil company has said they are prepared to go from a point remained barrels a day to 4 billion barrels a day. vladimir putin said they recognize the iranian should have an opportunity to increase their production since they were locked out of the market with sanctions for so long. that is such an increase in output perhaps they cannot stomach that. manus: thank you, ryan. the very latest breakdown. anna: coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪

manus: who will succeed vladimir putin? we asked the russian president that very question. g-20, rising protectionism is threatening growth in the global economy. and merkel's party suffers its first state defeat by the populist kfd party as the country's first female chancellor had heard dave. a very good morning. is bloomberg surveillance, i am manus cranny. anna edwards. francine and tom have the day off. the senate. >> russia and saudi arabia has signed an agreement to help stabilize the oil market. details have not been announced but the deal comes three days after vladimir putin says he would like opec and russia agreed to freeze oil supplies. discussing ways to cut.

head of japan's essential banks as new ideas are not up the table when it comes to boosting inflation. kuroda isjapan reviewing policies to see if they are effective. kuroda says the review will not result in any monetary change. in the east china sees. talking on the sidelines of the g-20 summit. china taking more aggressive measures in the region. increasing the patrols of japanesearships near administered islands. it's not obama and russian president vladimir putin have agreed to continue talks over a cease-fire. ready to reach a deal in syria with russian counterpart. the state department says the russian walked back on parts of a syrian agreement. talked earlier.

political humiliation for chancellor angela merkel. for the first time, her democratic union lasted the anti-immigration germany party and the election. merkel's popularity has plummeted since her decision of allowing large numbers of refugees in germany. global news 24 rows a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: time to get a data check. the prison of currency. sterling is on a ripper. we are seeing sterling, the longest winning streak since june. town. the dollar into why? the purchasing manager index today had the biggest single jump on record. of 7.4, in july. an imminent recession market will be afforded the dollar down 2/10 of 1%.

the jobs report, possibility of a hike. goldman sachs says the market is underestimating a september rate hike. table rally like that, anna edwards? a bank meeting this week. highly unlikely the markets as big as they have something which every central bank are in the world would run after. inflation rate of 1.4 percent. in a: well if it is inflation people want, you might want to see what is happening to the oil price right now. the oil prices in there, third one down. up by 3.2% on the price of a barrel. fascinating commentary coming out of the meeting between the saudi's and the russians. the saudi saying they are optimistic that algiers will bring agreement. which is interesting because that takes place in september. saudi's, their

energy group is set to meet in october and they are going to meet again during november at the opec meeting said the timing on when any of this agreement is going to get a real agreement, which they have not gotten yet but it is being talked about by the saudi's and russians, if we are going to get agreement it could be interesting. manus: the saudi minister saying opec.ey to success of i ran trying to get back to the pre-sanction levels. global derivative equity strategy. thank you for joining us. timely arrival. door $50.n the an agreement to freeze, will it change the dimension for the oil market? >> if we look longer-term at the oil market, we know supplies going to fall. todaye supply right now, but we know it is going to disappear given the lack of wells the if new oil we've seen in the u.s. and the rest of the world, if you look

at the oil recount it has collapsed. the investment has gone away. we know it is coming. what this agreement could do is accelerate that process by keeping more oil in the ground and less out there pump. saying iran should reach pre-sanction levels. the than of a lens, the munificence. for the iranians. in their conversations with the saudi's. manus: we all know the saudi's and iranians are not the best of friends. [laughter] >>'s has been the key tension up until now so clearly if the russians can mediate a want to be a relative winner which is exactly what is need at a time when opec controlled less oil around the world. got: a great chart you have here which has to do with hedge funds getting short on energy stocks specifically. this goes back to 2011 from

credit sweet and shows hedge bonds are not optimistic about returns it can get from energy, energy companies. how do you marry that with an expectation of a higher oil price? >> that is interesting because what i look at the market action i see something different, particularly in the u.s. for one example, the managed oil and gas i plan, resisted extremely well. they have not moved down. one reason, they give a good yield. people are hungry for you. that tells me that could be a good place to be. on the other hand, you will get some sort of -- to the rising oil prices. the second thing, oil credit. that has a significant portion and u.s.. prices move higher, again, this is an area that is done well and can continue to do well and see credit spreads. >> you see the ratchet we are

getting in with oil rises. one jump in 10 minutes. what you have is a market that had actually almost cut their net long positions by the most in almost one year, almost to years. need to go back and find the individual piece of paper but this is a market that is slightly ill-prepared for this kind of rhetoric. manushink that is right, because if you look at the oil chart up until today was selling off. it had been starting to sell off, led by copper. remember, holding futures can be expensive. it cost money every month. so you say, ok. derivative,o be a you should be trying to push this kind of product. >> it is interesting to look at oil volatility now. anna: we keep referring to this is lackingt but it in detail. basically telling us they have

been talking about a freeze and the market is not taking this seriously. we will see how long this optimism around the possibility of a freeze lasts in market because he second part of the conversation in which he might or might not have tomorrow is well, will there be any kind of convincing or long-lasting deal if we see one. >> that is the point. we're for this from russia and opec before and it came to nothing so people will want to see actual concrete results, actual freezing of actual supply across the board. you need over $50 a barrel to be maintained to see confidence that the move out can be maintained. manus: he seems to think this $50 is a near-term cap. >> oil and gas has been the lead. some of the individual names. where are we in that respect? open.corridor 50 bed, i will be generous. $60. what does it do for the

investment perspective and oil equities. >> again, i'm not sure really changes the dynamic. i mean the real risk is we will move up to quickly. we worry about having an oil glut down the line. i think slow and steady is the best outcome. manus: i will leave you one more word from the saudi arabians. they're going to ask to join the agreement. russia and saudi arabia intimating they are ready to go for three. they are going to ask everybody else to join in the last hurrah for oil. in a: we will translate that for our north american viewers. manus cranny. six in the morning if you're watching in new york. happy labor day to you. we have oil and therefore you. up by more than 3% on the oil price right now.

in the midst of all of the surrounding saudi arabia, a stronger post to the jobs number outside the u.s. stocks in europe up 2/10 of a percent. right now, the london market underperforming. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ anna: welcome back, this is surveillance with manus any. >> close to naming a j.p. morgan investment executive to run its mortgage bank. that would fill the final vacancy on ceo jeff bailey's management team. he telephone and --

.he list already the price, two-putted $7 billion. not beto -- it will cheap to replace those potentially defective smartphones. the corian phone company may spend up to a billion dollars to replace all of the phones that went on sale last month. about three dozen of the phones caught fire into exploded. that is the bloomberg business lash. anna: thank you. g-20 summit wrapping up. leaders and top policymakers have warned about the global economic outlet and the growing protectionist mood around the world. shery ahn is covering the g-20 summit and joins us now. the to see you again. oil is making the most recent headlines after the g-20. covering this coming from the saudi sent

russians. give us the details. we are quite surprised to developments when we just learned in saudi arabia the energy mnister would be briefing the press about a significant announcement and it comes after the russian president vladimir putin met the deputy crown and sans sunday and they -- now we are just hearing they agree to stabilize the oil market. cooperation among all producers is needed to shore up the market according to the saudi energy minister. telling reporters after meeting his russian counterpart the g-20 summit. the latest headlines we are saying we need to avoid a potential supply shortage in a few years. saudi arabia also asked opec and others to join the agreement with russia. but we are hearing the saudi

arabia oil minister also saying that there is no need now to freeze oil output. that has been a key issue after in 2014.s peaked saudi arabia minister saying -- iran's views are key for success of opec and of course they have talked about iran not actually being needed to cut those oil supplies given that western sanctions have just been lifted. from: i will pick it up here. these sentiment has been very much potential slowdown. the lack of trade that has gone on. we also saw abe and sheesh and paying having a sidebar conversation. do we know what those conversations where?

>> the center theme of the g-20 summit has been a low growth, inclusiveness and just the fact that protectionism has been rising around the world on the imf proceeding. saying we could see the lowest growth year since the global financial crisis and yes, you mentioned president summit with abe which was not expected today , just expecting a handshake at the most but we are hearing they are holding talks this evening. prime minister abe is expected to have a presser in about one hour or two. so those talks will be very closely watched given that we saw these high tensions over territorial disputes in the east china sea, high tensions also between china and its other neighbor south korea, president she holding talks this morning. given the u.s. missile shield

to deploy over her country, those were some very tense talks. u.s. president obama not really getting that warm welcome that for- would usually happen g-20 leaders. to the plane from the lower level of the jet. we saw some competitions between u.s. delegations, staff members as well as chinese security so despite the fact the g-20 summit has been moving forward and we are hearing that from a draft communique that the g-20 leaders are talking about boosting fiscal policies as well as monetary ones on the sidelines. we have seen a lot of tensions brewing up. joining us there

from the g-20. breaking coming through from barclays. president ofnamed corporate and international unit will stop they hired him from announcing it from e-mail. this fills a vacancy that has existed for a little while at the top of barclays. the topthe hole in management team. we reported this early on according to people managing the talks and now it has been confirmed by the company. barclays making that announcement. he global equity bisson at j.p. morgan in london. talking about the g-20. berkeley story. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ manus: i am manus cranny, alongside me as anna edwards. it is time for the morning must-read. . letter 15 pages. a message from the japanese. in response to the u.k. leaving the eu or preparing to leave the eu. in light of the fact that a number of japanese businesses have invested actively in the u.k. which is seen as a gateway. request that the u.k. will consider this act

seriously and respond in a responsible manner. this was the japanese government task force, asking to maintain good relationships. there is a wonderful statistic in this 15 pages. operating innesses europe and europe as a whole created 440,000 jobs and a considerable jobs -- a amount of those are here in the united kingdom. in terms of investment, half of the tiffany's direct investment for the eu came to the u.k.. anna: it is about cooperation and finding a way forward and relationships. the governor's and, what happens in this investment. if these conditions are not met. about, they are talking they have a tough list of criteria they want the government to meet. maintenance of trade, no burdens. well, we are not sure if that will be maintainable or

deliverable. do you see the kind of phony war going on around brexit as that? do we know enough to work out whether the pound should be higher or lower? >> not really. brexit is going to take more than two years 2 p.m. out. softg clear reviews on exit or hard brexit. clearly the japanese making an investment and would love the softness of brexit. just as we would financial services. that is what they are pleading for here. wrinkly, we have no view today. in front of the parliament committee on wednesday. --s is the roar of the brexit, the biggest on record. need tosh does carney

be? he is going to be chastised as fast, gone too hard, too too far, too aggressive. >> it is far too early to come to that conclusion, manus. we do not really know what the impact of exit is going to be. then will we know whether he went too far too fast. >> i would maintain a visit. he is like he had. he wants to be the head. t-rex they are looking to years ahead in theory, right? in two years we still do not know what brexit we're going to get. i have to prepare for the worst case. that is my job. meanwhile, businesses are busy preparing for whatever they think might happen in a brexit scenario. which of those businesses do you buy? >> i still buy the 5250 because

there is been a lot of seller. you think about the domestic economy, think about how it is building. and about retail. these are areas that of bounceback quickly in terms of activity we can see. the share prices have only bounce back little bit of the ways i think there's more to the in the 250, not so much global index. manus: thank you very bear that in mind. coming up, we asked the russian president that very question in an exclusive interview from our editor-in-chief john mikel's jon and the man who runs russia. succession, oil, future. coming up. ♪

manus: i can manus cranny. see youriting to

president -- the united states. we are waiting to hear from president obama. his comments at the g-20. we will bring that to you live as soon as he steps up to the podium. we might have to wait and united kingdom for a trade agreement. anna: let's get to the first word news. the u.k. needs to speed up the brexit process. once they have decided, we need to move forward. , especially process for the external dimensions. immigration and trade. therefore we cannot waste two maintain them to inside without them wanting to be inside. we cannot afford this paradox. he also said the u.k. should

expect fund limits on the exports to the eu when they leave. theresa may is expressing doubts made by the brexit campaign. proposalsmissing offered by boris johnson. state --ys the islamic cut off the islamic state from the outside world. launchedn rebel allies an attack last month against islamic state fighters. truck drivers are blocking a major highway. they arers say frustrated that immigrants are trying to hop into their trucks to cross the border. victory for those fighting to save the giant panda. it is now been taken off the

endangered list. it is now listed as vulnerable. meanwhile, the world's largest living primate, the guerrilla, has been listed as critically endangered. global news, 24 hours a day. powered by our more than 2600 journalists and analysts, in more than 120 countries. anna: thank you. an eclectic mix of stories. inc. you. with russia's presidential is a looming,18 we sat down with an exclusive interview with vladimir putin. we asked whether he would serve again. >> have you decided if you will run in the presidential election of 2018? we are now on the brink of parliament election. we need to see the results. in twoill be another

years so it is hard to speak about this. with the rapidly changing modern world, the need to work to make -- we need to improve the quality of people's lives. increase the economy. depending on the solutions to these tasks then we can see how organizing a presidential campaign and who shall take part. i have not yet made the decision for myself. >> do you think russia is getting easier to run or harder? putin: compared to when? >> in your time.

putin: i think it is more complicated because despite all the criticism of our western participatingre in democratic -- we will leave its mark. there is a practical dimension. the leadinghat solutions -- people know what has happened. so we need a proactive election campaign. they are all in part of the media and the newspapers.

meanwhile, they don't say how to make things better. they have shallow views that are totally unrealistic. it will look great on the television. but they don't say they are ready to take responsibility. are you envious of the chinese who don't have to go through the elections? putin: there is a different political system. i don't think you would like to -- we5 billion people give the chinese the right and the ability to decide how to govern their country. russia is a different country.

we have different processes and levels of development. it is a different quality. it is about the quality of the political system. it is growing and it is becoming more open. happy and imakes me would like the system to become stronger so we have a balance that will allow us to have progress. let's get a little bit more with the man who was in the room in that interview. john, great to have you with us. what more have we learned? phase personal ratings are unrivaled at 80%. he doesn't have to worry too much about facing the electorate , or does he? probably not in the

immediate future. his approval ratings are skyhigh. but it was interesting listening to him. it isn't often he talks about the future. he did open late -- there was a brief segment when he said he was drawn on the issue of what a successor or what qualities of a successor to him would need. no one is really expecting the vladimir putin ring to end but you are seeing a recognition that there is a need to regenerate his inner circle. and he opened up a little bit about that as well. anna: stay with us a little bit. edmund shing has in with us, patiently waiting. expectations and investments around russia, is this a good time? edmund: it is very much tied to

the history of the oil price. russia has just come out of a big recession and it is probably on the way back up there he slowly and that is why they want to push the price is higher so they don't need to pump as much oil. if that were to be the case then it would have a bigger impact on the economy, particularly in terms of funding things like domestic pensions. john, back to you. the covered everything from russians in terms of wanting to intervene in the oil market. stability in oil is inextricably to political stability and economic reprieve in russia, isn't it? john: yes, that's right. we heard that we are facing the elections in the next few

weeks so it will be interesting to see what happens there. while vladimir putin's approval ratings are high, the russia party approval ratings dipped below 50% for the first time. so it is not like there is a population in russia which has had to go through so much hardship, they are not forgiving the political classes. while a lot of people don't expect a massive surprise, anything significantly below 50% for russia will be disappointing. it will be interesting to see what happens with the prime minister, as well. so while the outcome of the election is not in doubt, there will be a lot going on with the members when they come out. thank you so much for joining us. john fraher, joining us. edmund shing, stay with us.

bringing you headlines from russia and saudi arabia. with vladimiron putin, you can catch that this afternoon at 5:00 p.m. london time. political pressure for angela merkel as her party faces defeat at the state level. discussed whether she will defy the populist and stay on the political course ahead. how significant was this weekend's results? this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. this is "bloomberg surveillance." we have manus cranny in with us. the chinese president is speaking at the g-20 right now

giving a closing statement. we will monitor that, of course. he says that global economic recovery is weak, those are the headlines coming from the closing address. let's get the bloomberg business flash. spencer will cut jobs at the headquarters in london. a nine percent drop in the most recent quarter. -- struggling international unit and the british stores. automakers in china want to keep the limit for at least five years. that will ensure that chinese carmakers are ready for full-fledged competition. right now they only have a 50% stake. and macau will be able to have

few tables senate hoped for. they will have 150 tables. they were pushing to build projects to attract tourists. thank you. angela merkel is facing political humiliation when her to theost anti-immigration alternative for germany. this is in a state election. it raises questions over her political standing ahead of next years political election. saying that despite the setbacks, she does remain the best choice. annad shing is still with and myself. our guest earlier said, stop making such a fuss. you are all getting far too

excited. concur? absolutely. maybe it has been a little bit boring with her in power? a nicely, this is not start to the crucial election year. going to create a lot of noise. it is a challenge for her. in terms of domestic and internal party management. but at the end of the day, it is way too early that she is on her way out. anna: we don't know her intentions as to regards the seeking a full-time. we might hear more by the end of this year? they want her to stay? carsten: absolutely. if the political fringes gain if these fringes gain

power you need someone like angela merkel who is able to forge coalitions. day, the two the parties will want her to continue. , nicolas sarkozy running for president -- a lurch to the right. europe as a whole, the ecb is -- europeand center is in a state of chaos and what does that mean for the ecb? edmund: the ecb knows that there is unlikely to be a lot of fiscal policy in the short but they have to keep the figures turned on. they have to flood the market ash cheap money for as long they can because the economy is slowing. they willlear that not do what they need to do to get the economy rolling. look at germany. it has the best economic

conditions domestically for 20 or 30 years. and yet we are talking about angela merkel not winning the election? anna: and we had a brexit vote with low unemployment in the u.k. -- you talk about the weaknesses and they are well documented and inflation is low. that is the key concern but we had the euro zone pmi earlier and it was the less than the estimate. strength some signs of in the eurozone. we have a great chart showing how well spain is doing. so should this concern about the politics in europe really be so dominant? if you are an investor in europe, do you worry so much about politics? if you are a bond investor you don't care. extremely low yields, that has

not been derailed in any sense. so it defends test it depends who you are. manus: there are a few headlines --ing through from the 220 he questioned the validity of old policy. saying old fiscal policies don't work. these 20 nations must choose to andore structural reform high and manufacturing to improve global financial management. it is ecb week. this is volatility. it hasn't been this tight since 1991. is burden on monetary policy hitting such an extreme level. you think this kind of repressed volatility continues? edmund: no. i think there will be a break. what we see is the risk to the markets generally -- in

september and october you get a spike caused by something and i think markets will wake up and volatility will rear its head in the next couple of months. anna: talking a little bit about the german story here. we have been trying to tie that in with the brexit conversation because we are to figure out when it will be and what it will look like. "brexitmay keeps saying means brexit.' how does this work in with the timing of the decision-making in europe? in france andtes germany. what looks most sensible? lensen: there are smaller as well. a lot of potential for a populous vote. conversation remains between theresa may and her own party.

the european story is one side and it matters but the biggest risk for the british domestic party -- the problem is figuring out what it means we talk about brexit. how much of an economic price are we willing to pay. we have not had a serious conversation about that. anna: carsten nickel, thank you very much. and thank you to edmund shing, who is sticking with us. just a couple of quick words , some of the comments are coming through. they've decided to give a bigger role to emerging markets and say that nations seek coordination to combat pack evasion. you can also see that to the right of the screen.

we are expecting president obama to be speaking. takes the podium we will bring that to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: i am manus cranny. forex report. a the dollar-yen, nobody seems to believe mr. kuroda. the dollar dive. the dollar is dying across the board because the market lacks the conviction from the dollar reserve. the yen is strengthening and the dollar is declining. the euro against the dollar, we saw nice data coming from europe , spain and france. advancing to the highest level with the best winning streak -- and the dollar mexican peso is strengthening. downdds of a fed hike went

and back up to 32% probability. so it is all due to your perspective on that. that ties in nicely with edmund shing, still with us. a quick word on the fed. we pulled up this on the bloomberg. you can input the gdp and inflation data. where should we be now? current fed rates are only half of that. the fed is behind the curve -- what do you think? edmund: i think that is probably correct. a rate in september is more likely than not. we think that could strengthen the dollar. again, you look at that unbelief of at the payroll, it is one number and it can be revised. these numbers are revised

consistently. there is a really good chance that we will look back. anna: -- manus: the one thing to note, the last time they hiked, manufacturing for the entire edmund shing, thank you so much. thank you, edmund shing. "bloomberg markets" is up next. tomorrow, tom keene and francine lacqua will be back. that starts at 5:00 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is 7:00 a.m. in new york.

7:00 p.m. in hong kong. i am mark johnson. >> and i am neighbor change. new yorke you from into london in the next hour. here is what we're watching. >> oil is surging. a productionver freeze. >> evidence now of a potential rebound. and not done yet. the bank of japan says there is ample room for more on a terry policy. let's get a look at how trading is underway. i always find this ironic that labor day involves taking a day off. i just. european markets are interesting right now.