we are live in bloomberg world headquarters in new york over the next hour. what we're watching. stocks are pulling ahead with small gains after a three-day weekend. energy and telecom leading the way. vonnie: steelmaking is back in place today. in nanoen buys a stake star. we will break down the m&a landscape. david: apple is shaking things up a bit. will it pay off in the crucial fourth-quarter? going to the markets desk were julie hyman has the latest. not terribly eventful in terms of the movement in the overall stock market. seen atthe pace we have

the end of summer and now going into the fall potentially here. one third of about a percent. the 44th street session unless -- of less than 1% move. take a look at the bloomberg. this is the chart we are looking at. the dotted line is the six-month average. average.ill below that a narrow range in the s&p on a daily basis. as has always been the case of -- as has been the case, we've seen big individual moves. these are big targets of the biggest deals we're talking about today. the bid was $127 and $.50. on santa trading below 27.

more than $20 below the offer price to hear. obviously skepticism on the part of investors if this is going to get done. spectra energy selling itself to enbridge creating a big pipeline company. an all stock deal, 28 million dollars. that price rising up about 17%. the pricing over the epipen concern continues. a new company making comments , saying itpricing would curb price increases on its drugs in the response to the outcry about that the price pricing -- of the pen pricing. it has periodically come under fire for its drug pricing practices as well.

vonnie: thank you. we are definitely into september. mark crumpton has more from the newsroom. campaign hasmp released an open letter from retired generals and military officials endorsing his presidential campaign. the letter is a long-overdue course correction and the national security posture and retired military figures. thousands of republican national security leaders release the letter last month warning trump would risk the national security of the nation and well-being. hillary clinton is calling on release tax to returns. secretary clinton spoke to reporters on a flight from new york to florida. clearly his tax return tells a story that the american people deserve and need to know. his continuing claim that he cannot release his tax return

because he is under audit has disproved repeatedly. >> clinton is holding a rally in tampa to discuss national security at this hour. the hurricane has knocked out power in some places. disproved repeatedly. this made landfall with more than 90 miles per hour wind. have assumed lucas was hit with rain and heavy wind. secretary general let make his first visit to turkey. he will visit the turkish capital thursday and friday. he will meet with the president and other high-level officials. that coup attempt killed 270 people and strained relationships between turkey and many of the nato allies. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. fire hasecresse increased its bid for monsanto. that will be 100 -- $127.50 per share. has increased its bid for monsanto. has increased its bid for monsanto. .he share price has dropped it is more attractive even. i think it has been pretty clear from early on in this one they will not negotiating anything less than upfront with three. they are trying to get to the table and get a proper deal done. this is the second bump they have done. it does not seen enough.

so it is interesting for what they were hoping to achieve at this point. >> any talk over -- any talk about a takeover bid? >> there is some. i think the other thing here is it would be a difficult one to sell. there is a lot of regulatory stuff that can, p are. monsanto would start to throw that up, and it would be a mess. vonnie: has the regulatory outlook changed at all iago's seems so much consolidation it may be difficult to get the deal through anyway. >> i think that remains the case. you have big deals in this space. you have smaller things going on.

argument, there is an this would be more competitive than others because you are putting pesticides and seeds together. there will be issues and things we need to invest in. to resist thents takeover, there are things they can bring up to make it difficult. david: there are some other deals. this is the most a canadian company would pay for a foreign company. quite yes. this also comes at a time when we see other deals and other failed deals in this space. i think there is consolidation going on here. we will continue to see it. it can be one of the biggest operators in the space when you put them together. enormous combined enterprise of

$127 billion. icahn: we have carl tensioning a couple of different deals. he happens to be a large shareholder in at the start. take your pick. >> deals tuesday. it would not be complete without icon being involved. beingthout icahn involved. this was near bankruptcy out long ago. it had operational miss the. the shares have reacted .ccordingly of 60%. huge. significant operational problems with the emissions scandal. i think this is an important move to try to rewrite the course in the u.s. the first time they are trying to make the path of trucks and the u.s. -- in the

u.s.? >> yes. are there going to be job cuts? we spoke to the ceo this morning. >> you can never ruled out out. when people talk about synergies, they are normally .alking about job cuts there is the possibility down the road. david: ed hammond there with bloomberg news. vonnie: coming up, a state election in germany over the weekend raising questions about angela merkel's political and big. can she continue to push her refugee policy? david:. there is the possibility down the road. david: apple will likely present the newest iphone, a new apple watch and improvement to the operating system. can the announcement spark real excitement? here is how the averages look.

the dow and s&p up .10%. the nasdaq up .3%. this is bloomberg. ♪ dow and s&p up .10%. the nasdaq up .3%. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: this is bloomberg "markets." i am david gura. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn. a look at the biggest business doors in the news right now. and antitrust probe into the epipen price hike. says ahneiderman preliminary investigation shows the company may have inserted anti-competitive terms into sales contracts with schools. this is the latest fallout following outrage by the public after raise the price from $50 nine years ago to $600.

the ofa price to layout the pen price. the chief executive officer said they will raise prices only once a year and increases will be limited to the single-digit percentage range and should limit overall price increases to what he says is slightly above the current rate of inflation. karel icons investment company is buying in federal-mogul holdings for $9.25 per share. ahns.rl ic it is more than the closing share price of $4.98. that is the day before the enterprise of seven dollars per share. it was increased to eight dollars per share in june. that is your boom -- bloomberg business update.

time for angela merkel standard life her refugee policy even after an embarrassing defeat sunday. the christian democratic union one only 19%. immigration is sure to top that agenda. here is the czech prime minister. migration, mr. cibulkova has already mentioned we differed in our attitude of the redistribution of the migrants within the eu, but we at similar issues on many views am including the treaty between the eu and treaty. the fight against illegal migration, also on the missions of nato in order to help fight the causes of migration. idea of ascussed the joint project in the countries that except the high number of migrants, jordan and lebanon. vonnie: we're joined by kt good

t goutenberg. say all oftry to your name. it is very long. what is the end game for angela where does it end to go >> probably a new chancellorship. it may sound ought after the blow she has suffered this last sunday evening when she sat in china and watched her own party going down the drain. the new populist party and movement in germany gaining more ground. however, this was a state that --resents than the northeastern part of germany. only 25,000 refugees in that state. it is not appear reflection of how the whole german country will kick in for the election. having said that, she will have the most difficult way to

reelection, but there is no one contends -- contesting her. what does it say to you about her personality or as a president how she is stuck to if i would use a noun or verb, i would say she has been more stubborn than a little child. however, she always led germany in a way that she stuck to her convictions. i think she has somehow misinterpreted the way germans would react to that. currently the population is not only confused, many are fearful for what will happen. at the moment for many she is more of a stepmother. the german economy is

beginning to stumble just a little bit. 10 year yields are in negative territory. thisrmany able to handle amount of refugees and unending flow of refugees? will it and eventually add to this and how do they convince the population of that is the case? >> we're talking about a generational task. we have more than one million refugees. emerging from africa and the border with turkey. it is actually trying to keep the situation as stable as possible, to keep the border closed, to keep the turkey and eu deal alive. you also need to have leverage in europe. her impact on european politics have suffered as well.

many of the european countries say we are not listening any longer and have left us alone. we have already other things looming on the horizon. the french election and other things. this all leads to a certain mix seeeactions that you could in the next year that may be difficult for her. she will stick to her strategy. she will not change course dramatically, and she will hope there was no one in her own party or anyone challenging her successfully, and i do not see anyone right now. >> her hands were full before the brexit a couple of months ago. how do you grade how she is handled that so far and what that might mean for the influence on germany going ahead? >> it was extremely important to have this alliance

within the european union. some of the states were reluctant with france and others . that is gone now. with mainlya chance struggling internally in their own country, it makes it hard to push the european question further. that means we will not see the necessary reforms and the european union, and might make it easier for the u.k. to put pressure on europe if the chancellor is somehow weaker right now. we will see another your pass by . >> how do you see the alliance ?etween germany and france? does it seem strange? >> i am very hesitant to talk about an alliance. we have elections coming up.

both countries will use whatever they can to first of all address the main concerns in their own countries, and that is thinking about strengthening forces for a forward-looking european union. you towhat is next for go are you done with government, or something you think you may >> i am quite happy over here. i am running my investment firm. vonnie: you keep saying you do not see anyone on the horizon, could you be that person at some point? >> probably not. for joining us. apple expected to unveil an upgraded iphone tomorrow. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: this isvonnie: bloomberg "markets." i am vonnie quinn. -- davidam david when gura. apple breaking the habit and aneasing the newest model on even year. by apple fans will have to wait another year to be wowed. >> it has been an awful year for apple, at least by the company's high standards. i have an uninspiring message waiting,and customers wait until next year. apple's revenue has declined for the past two quarters, and probably will continue to fall for the next six months. forlast time sales dropped

12 months straight was 2001. mark zuckerberg was still in high school. stock has dropped from an all-time high in 2015. the product wizards are keeping busy, but next year will not be record-breaking. these will be more like tweaked 6s.sions of the iphone s also coming are fresh models of some mac computers and second-generation apple watch. none of these products will be surprises, but they should help sales grow again, at least modestly after this holiday season. the big hope is writing on 2017. expectations are building apple pull out a dramatically different iphone found a year from now with a new type of thatr -- super thin screen could spark a big wave of sales. it has been five years since tim cook took over as ceo.

the company has become even more financially successful. it does not have a new breakout category under his watch. wait until next year. it is not a great rallying cry, but the best apple can do. will be covering the event tomorrow. emily chang will issue an hour-long special. sure to tune into that. a top ranked forecaster on the economy, jason schenker talked about the critical factors driving markets including the u.s. elections. check. now for a data letting us start with the u.s. measures. the dow shaving off gains just up .2%. the s&p up three points. the nasdaq is up a third of 1% right now. other a look at indicators, including the dollar index, down by 1.1%. below 95 after it the

nonmanufacturing i is some data came out. it dropped significantly from last month. we all have the labor markets condition showing a deterioration, one that was not looked for. seeing a weaker yen -- weaker dollar story, stronger yen story because of the data this morning. this has the euro trading above $1.12. look at the japan 30-year yield. watching bloomberg "markets." ♪

david: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. this is bloomberg "markets." i am david gura. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn.

taking a look at some of today's biggest movers. prospects for u.s. rate increases this month receipt. the previous precious metal is up 27% this year as uncertainties surrounding the feds and the brexit vote is man for a haven. futures rising the most in two months. rise.tion costs will the international oil benchmark dropped after there was a vote to corporate to stabilize market sales. this after having gained yesterday. been onel prices have of the critical factors weighing on the global economy. of thebject the author book discusses. let's start with oil. let's start with energy. there was and has been

this improving. handicap that for us. >> i think it will depend on oft the prices at the time the meeting. this is very different than it has been in the past. the announcement on august 8 was a very formal press release announcing there would be on the sidelines a very informal meeting. i think there is the potential if prices were to move lower that they could do something. it has been effective at buttressing the price when you would normally see it dropped a cousin of the seasonal end up driving season. forhat is your forecast what will happen in the next six months? duke prices go lower because of price and demand? echo >> ies go lower do not expect opec action later , but there is an

increased potential, especially after the very positive corporate it tone between saudi arabia and the other members. i think the end of next year we are looking at sharply higher prices. we could see average price increases more in the mid-50's next year. a lot of upside because you have a underinvestment in the state. let me ask you about how the labor market looks right now. we got the august take years friday. disappointing. coupled look at that with the manufacturing data, what is your sense of where things are and where they are headed gekko >> i am very concerned about the idea some numbers. ie idea some manufacturing --

sm manufacturing below 50 showing a contraction. these things are not good, and we have already been expecting numbers too slow. so very concerned about that. for 11ial production consecutive months. the previous record of the past 97 months is four months. we are at 11. the industrial site is already hurting. we are worried about what will happen with auto sales here. you are saying we are going to be in a recession by land of the year so the next four quarters will be negative growth. >> i believe we will have negative growth. there is monthly start dates rather than quarterly.

i think in the fourth quarter you will see things turn. well that have anything to do with the impacting election? >> this is very interesting. numbers on of the recession starts and election timing. a lot of people talk about it, but i have not seen a quantitative number. we have had a long cycle. what i found is the past 14 recession since 1928, which includes the great depression or 14 started 13 in the 11 months before the presidential election or 13 months thereafter. that is what i call the election window. what we found is 11 of the 14 started after the election with a median start of eight months. that means by the middle of next ber we've would very likely in it anyway.

the data goes back to 1854. there has never been a case where a recession did not happen .n a third consecutive time never three consecutive presidential terms without a recession. it started in george w. bush's second term. it is a different time now like a new normal. if we look, 13 of the past 14 recessions. if you look at what is going on with oil and gas, shared national credit review as of july 20 nine, they are reviewing the national credits twice a year.

the only done it once he year since 1977. there is some going on. vonnie: if donald trump wins, does janet yellen stay? >> she could. i am not sure what we would see their syria and i think the outcome of the election will be very influenced i what happens in the economy. david: thank you. author of the new book " electing recession." taylor riggs with more from the newsroom. >> president obama promising to work with the u.n. to tighten sanctions against north korea after another missile launch by the rogue nation. signaling it would redouble its efforts to choke off north korea's access to currency and technology during his historic is it to laos. president obama: we will work diligently together with the thatrecent u.n. sanctions are already placing north korea

under the intense sanctions regime ever. we are working together to make sure we closing loopholes and making them more effective. >> mr. obama pledging $90 million to clean up bombs and other bombs during the war. the republican chairman of the house committee investigating hillary clinton's e-mail practices while she was secretary of state wants more information. representative is trying to find and others clinton working with her played a role in the deletion of thousands of e-mails by a colorado technology firm. by thes obtained associated press. donald trump is telling abc news releasereceive -- will full records if hillary clinton does. he said i would love to give full reports. crews battle of fire that broke out at the u.s. department of agriculture building earlier today. reporting firefighters battled the flames as they rose above

the complex. they received anonymous threats. one of the closed offices was in maryland. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts. raikes.lor this is bloomberg. vonnie: as new poll show the clinton and trump race is tightening, we will break down one key issue that sets the presidential candidates apart, taxes. grover norquist joins us next. this is bloomberg ♪. ♪ vonnie: you are watching

bloomberg "markets." i am vonnie quinn. david: a slew of polls show edgery clinton has the over donald trump. others show the race is effectively tied. a new poll puts donald trump two points ahead of hillary clinton. joining us is the national political reporter in washington, d.c. what are we seeing in battlegrounds dates and places like off kyle in pennsylvania? -- places like ohio and pennsylvania? >> we are seeing the race tighten and other places. the hillary clinton lead has been cut in half since the convention. the race blue wide open and she

flew ahead by six or seven points. now she is ahead by about three points. the new poll has donald trump leading. it is the first poll since the republican convention wide opene flew ahead by six or seven points. now she is ahead by about three points. the new poll has donald trump leading he has led in. on the battleground level he still faces a very uphill climb. hillary clinton has a ledge in the state. she has what can be called the blue wall, those who have voted democrat for the past six elections or soap. so if you are hillary clinton supporter, not time to panic just yet. watching hillary clinton speak in tampa, florida. at the same time donald trump speaking about vets. he also said vladimir putin looks at hillary clinton and he "laughs." eventll before the wednesday night, basically a town hall on defense and military. this that it anymore trumps -- points and donald trump's card clear that itt

will. the big game will be national security and the military. he has spent the past couple of weeks talking about immigration with varying degrees of success. the national security debate contains a risk and reward. he can point to controversies in hillary clinton's tenure of state. they hillary clinton campaign has a pretty good response, to. they argue donald trump does not have the experience or temperament or fitness level to president of the united states and commander-in-chief. this shows up in polls over and over again. voters doubt donald trump is fit to be commander-in-chief. that is a debate i think we will hear a lot more about this week. agreedhas donald trump to do all of the debates on the schedule, and what are the candidate doing at this point to prepare cap go >> over the

weekend he told reporters traveling with him that he will do the three debates. trump had not committed to doing them. he suggested he wanted to negotiate more favorable terms for him. it is not quite known yet what he is doing to prepare. it is not clear he is doing mock debate sessions of this point. this happens the hind the scenes that we are only beginning to learn about. thank you for that. staying on politics as the presidential candidates narrowed their fork is, one issue has been tax policy. guest has been tracking hillary clinton's and donald trump's proposal. .rover norquist joining us a nonpartisan taxpayer advocacy group. grover, donald trump has not not toyour pledge

increase taxes. you still support his tax plan. why? >> the tax plan it self is quite good. it is a pro-jobs approach. he takes the tax rate from 35, the highest in the world, down to 15. hillary clinton does nothing on rates. he gets rid of the amt, important to a lot of business men and women. he gets rid of the death tax, if your business is one that is threatened by an owner's death taxes. it is a very good significant tax cuts. hillary clinton has made it clear she wants more than $1 trillion in tax increases. she reduces no one's tax rate ever. any of the things she says she may give people are in targeted tax credit for special interest rather than the economy as a

whole. we cannot compete with europe and the rest of the world. hillary clinton does not move from there. trump takes it down to 15. when you take a look at how they want to treat self-employed people, it is even more dramatic of a change. if you are in overdrive, hillary clinton once to make your current drive illegal. iver,f you are an uber dr hillary clinton wants to make your job is legal. good taxu call that a plan. i look on the website and it seems thin at best. how difficult is it to assess the merits when it seems like you and i do not have that much atopmation on it yet? >> corporate rate 35 to 15. on businessng investment. that is pretty powerful. he is not trying to raise taxes.

hillary clinton is trying to raise $1 trillion, which means she cannot be making anybody better off. those are only the ones she put the title to. six different kinds of tax rates more confusing in the united states. all to raise taxes. she will not tell you how much. she has given us $1 trillion number. i think trump has been very specific on the outlines of the proposals. vonnie: right. how do you then decide if it is doable? are you convinced we will get enough inflow and job creation to warrant that, or how would trump then pay for the other plans such as immigration reform and so forth? >> if you take the rate down to expensing go to full

rather than long depreciation. something the democrats supported in 1981 under reagan. that has not had the partisan challenges of rate reduction. i think if you look at not just trump proposals but his changes toe his proposal much closer paul ryan and the house and senate republican proposals. the house and senate republicans write ups are so close that you could sit down in an afternoon and hammer out a final deal. they are not going in different directions. the numbers are not if he is elected, the tax will will pass with republican house or senate passing. she wants to continue to do what obama did on tax increases. he is been looking for 1.4 trillion for the past six years. saying no. cap

she is asking for the same amount of money, and the answer will be the same, no. he says under the new donald trump plan, we would see a trillion then to the deficit because it would cut rates for businesses. so much of donald trump's platform is on infrastructure spending. he is talked about half $1 trillion of spending on infrastructure. what bonnie said, how difficult is it to assess the quality of the tax plan when you do not know how he will pay for ?uch an ambitious program >> he has outlined the tax plan. spending only happens when you decide you have the resources area there are a number of ways to increase infrastructure. you get rid of the davis-bacon act. this makes roads cost more, of all put into effect to keep african-american workers from -- african-american

workers from the south moving to the north and competing with uaw workers. when you widen the road, you have to do another study. those sorts of things that make building a highway more x and said then they need to are all government mistakes, all part of democratic party agenda. neither -- never change any of those. there is a lot you can do if you're not committed to organize labor from the past. david: the last question, the likelihood we will see tax reform from either of the individuals. you have been calling for reforms for a long time now. treasury is upset with the fact that congress has not done anything about in version. -- if past is president, there is not reason to be optimistic about things. let's all the reason. trump who says tax matters.

he is a reagan republican. if you add trump, you passed tax reform immediately. the challenge is the administration does not understand economics to the point they do not get the reason american companies get inserted or bought, we have a 35% rate in the european average is 25. until you fix that and bring our rate down to 15 or 20, you will keep having inversions. people because the government's tax policy pushes american tax companies overseas by getting purchased. the same companies worth more headquartered in another country . we did that. our government did that. david: good to speak to you. governor course joining us from washington, d.c. -- grover norquist. ♪

david: this is bloomberg "markets." i'm david gura. time now for the bloomberg business flash. force ubs to- may move up jobs. armani told the japanese newspapers almost a third of the 5000 employees in london could be affected. the u.k. hoping to retain passporting privileges that allow banks to sell services freely across the eu. vonnie: china national chemical purchasing a company familiar with the matter. they agreed to buy $443 billion earlier this eel and it deal that would transform the largest supplier of pesticides and agricultural chemicals. david: a short list and may pick

a winner by the end of the month. cbc competing against carlyle group. the asset could fetch more than three alien dollars. that is your business flash upda te. vonnie: going to julie hyman. julie: we are looking at the banks today. is the kicker on this sector etf. down 1.5% today. we have seen quite a tumble. this is one of the reasons are not gaining more overall because of the decline and banks. it has to do with what is going on with bond deals today. the isnsharply after services report. this has been accelerating down six basis points. the services read for the month of august or nonmanufacturing theices report showed fullest expansion and six years. if you are ahis

bloomberg subscriber. then you have the u.s. gdp number in white. they do trend -- 10 to track closely together. this in addition to other economic data has in cause for pause. we have been watching the interest rate probability calculator. , wethe september meeting have seen it go down sharply. it reversed after we heard from janet yellen and her comments earlier in august and keeps for the probability of a hike in september. david: thank you. julie hyman at the markets desk. the government now considering cutting costs and saudi arabia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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david: it 3 p.m. in new york, 12:00 p.m. and san francisco. i'm david gura. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. welcome to "bloomberg markets."

we are live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york for the next hour, plus covering stories in san francisco, washington, ec, and saudi arabia. the fomc meeting is just a few weeks away. most in better -- most investors are not betting on any action, but are most investors writing off the fed? thinking -- seeing thousands of jobs on the chopping block to cut down on spending. vonnie: donald trump has not gained much traction with women or minorities, but he has held the support of older white men. we will break down the difference between those demographics. we are one hour from the close of trading. let's head to the markets desk where julie hyman is looking at what might happen in the last hour.