john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. " to thel due respect apple geniuses that jumped the gun on their product announcement on twitter, all we have to say is-- >> aye aye aye. mark: aye aye, captain trump. we are pumped for the matt lauer hour power, the abc news commander-in-chief for them, where hillary clinton and donald trump will answer questions on military affairs and veterans issues.

oh, is this events timely. new polling from nbc suggests that trump might have an advantage with some national security voters. trump went to philadelphia to speak at the union league, where he talked about national security and made new proposals, including that he would ask military for a plan to defeat isis within 30 days of taking office. he would end sequestration cuts, built of the country's defenses by modernizing the military, adding more equipment, and modernizing the missile-defense system. aid typically he would be the best commander-in-chief, and of course, cold outlines on his rival. words that3 crucial should be at the center always of our foreign policy: peace through strength.

unlike my opponent, my foreign policy will emphasize diplomacy, mass destruction. -- not instruction. sometimes it seems like there wasn't a country in the middle east that hillary clinton did not want to invade, intervene in, or topple. she is trigger-happy and very unstable. mark: john, on these new trump proposals, is it good policy and good politics? most of the proposals, apart from asking for a isis plan, are pretty standard fare. in that sense they are fine. asking generals coming up with a plan to defeat isis is comical based on the criticisms he has based against barack obama and hillary clinton. and deciding that he knows more

about isis vanity generals. mark: he has contradicted himself, saying that he was always against the iraq war. -- he given this speech had he given the speech for the entire campaign, it would be very potent politically. it critiques the obama administration with some politically powered positions he has had all along. saying that the burden sharing needs to be bigger, america needs to be more about america rather than leaving the alliance. whoever wrote this with him or for him understands where the electorate is. i don't know if it is too late. the democrats have been so relentless in battering him. mark: i think it's a strong center-right critique and policy proposals. i am not sure that he is going

to break through and has the credibility to sustain. john: was an answer that blended policy and politics. i agree with that. the isis thing is so glaring. i am not sure that was his way to answer her criticism and he has a secret plan to end isis. mark: the headlines that you see in the major papers, "donald trump vows to traditions, and military"aps to boost -- these are all headlines they will love. i don't think you disagree that he could have given the speech starting in mid-may. mark: should have. john: and could have! mark: perfectly good policy, but late. john: at the veterans for an foreign policy --veterans

security and foreign policy are donaldillary clinton and trump have been in the disagreement zone. we talked to his campaign staffer kellyanne conway. kellyanne: two thirds of the country want to go in a different direction, and hillary clinton represents the old direction. trump has talked about american exceptionalism, making sure that we don't just go into war willy-nilly. a large part of how president obama did the democratic primary in 2008. john: among the differences between donald trump and hillary clinton, what stand out as real, significant, and salient to voters? mark: this socialist -- this -solationist-insurrectionist -

interventionist -- they have moved from each other in some strange ways. i think rahm emanuel and haley barbour would agree this notion of america cannot carry the burden alone. that includes having spending from allies. harshering gitmo, interrogation -- i am much or if that is the mood of the country. john: i agree. those are real differences. he is proposing doing things that are illegal under current law. mark: president bush got reelected with those tons of policies. --those kinds of policies. arguably they were legal when they were doing them. trump still needs to consolidate the center-right before he can coach the center. -- poach the center. differences help them at a minimum consolidate the republican base. john: here's the difference that

matters a lot, which is that she knows more about the world than he does. a lot more about the world. and you can disagree with her on policy in a million ways, but she can talk about any country on earth with some degree of depth and what it means in the united states. and that speaks to his business to be commander-in-chief. that is the key argument she is making. mark: he is starring lucky he won the coin flip because she goes second, so she can't go in and critique everything that he sid. resultsing, interesting from the military and veteran demographic. amongst those voters in this 35%. trump beat clinton trump won handily 25 points over clinton 53-28. these registered military voters were asked whom they trust more with nuclear weapons. that you were effectively tied. -- the two were effectively

tied. there argued about and states like north carolina, virginia in the top 10 states for the most active duty with reserve members of the military. this whole caught everyone's attention when nbc put it out. does it suggest a meaningful edge for trump with the election? john: no. it is borne out by one piece of research. you can see how john mccain performed in 2008. look at where mitt romney was. were were early polls. -- late polls. mccain cases, romney and outperformed where trump is now. so he is doing worse than previous republicans, and they lost. he has toobs, convince others that he will be a better jobs president than

clinton. this is an area where he is underperforming with republicans. the fact that he is beating her in these areas given their using the three abacus, this might be good enough. this is a different kind of coalition. he is going to find the extra vote. if she performs the way obama has performed with the coalition, and the way that romney and mccain performs -- she's going to lose. in the end this will not be the decisive factor. can she performed with the obama coalition? tankan he bring a bunch of -- and can he further bunch of new voters that he could before? next we go south of florida, joined by libertarian candidate gary johnson. back in a minute. ♪

john: in the words of the immortal tim russert, florida, florida. we can count on the sunshine state for juicy stories and skulduggery. donald trumps contribution to florida general pan body after campaign was found to make improper donations. was probably followed by a $300,000 per person fundraiser hosted by trump at his resort in florida. when we sat down with kel lyanne conway, we pressed or whether there was a link about the money and a decision not to prosecute. kellyanne: using the state

department as a concierge for foreign donors-- mark: people should treat this just as a coincidence? e: there were never discussions. but yes. john: i do not think they will discuss this matter anytime soon. where does this story go? mark: i think reporters are still going to dig without cooperation from either side. the democrats will look to build on this. they have pointed that at a minimum, it looks bad. is boasting that he gave money to politicians in order to influence their decisions. john: he basically said income was settings that giving money to politicians amounted to legal bribery, and he was a smart and savvy to do it. i agree with you.

this sequence of events is quite damning. it doesn't prove anything, but boy it stinks. mark: florida has an open records law and i think there will be more digging. both sides complain daily about our coverage. you and i both agree we have to go hard after both sides. this goes to questions about judgment and character and integrity as many issues about hillary clinton. we need to cover her policy initiatives, but this is an example of a multifaceted series of events in which trump did things that look bad entity pattern that he has of, as he has said, of trying to influence candidates. john: and that he lied about it. oh, i've never met pam bondi was his first answer, which he had to walk back yesterday. when he's lying about it, she has said things that invite a

lot of skepticism. when you have two people that seem to be lining, and the fact pattern is what it is, he has to look at it in a really hard way. is good if it makes us also look back at trump university. when the clinton campaign was driving that this summer, i continue to think on the basis of what we know about the story, there is even more to look about. mark: researchers are all over the clinton foundation. a quick history lesson. the year, 1940. nbc's live broadcast on television, and the dallas morning news endorsed franklin d. roosevelt for president. . was the last democrat on the morning news supported for the highest office in the land until now. the new not very enthusiastic endorsement says, we reject the politics of personal destruction. hillary clinton has made mistakes and a bad judgment, brought her errors are planning a different universe than her opponent's.does it matter that

the dallas morning news , for the first time in decades, is endorsing a democrat for president? john: i think newspaper editorials matter not all, zero to most people that look at newspapers. but i will say it reflects something. is meaningful that it tells you there continues to be a lot of disquiet among those that reliably voted for republicans forever. mark: the clinton campaign is sitting on more republican entities that will endorse her. there is more that will come that they don't even know about. the press is in some cases a soccer for these stories. -- a sucker for these stories. there will be many more, and they will get their new share of cycle wins on stuff like this. le.another little need john: we cannot resist it when a man bites a dog.

we've got dan ball and item regarding, gary johnson and bill wells, very interesting guys. all coming up after this. ♪

mark: this is the building of the year. we are joined by 2 political heavyweights. our chief correspondent for the washington post from the headquarters in washington dc. it's awesome to have you guys on together. let's start with dan. tell us what you think trump beats clinton. >> closer than it was.

trump has made up some ground. she has not had a couple good weeks. there has been some natural closing. this is a time when that begins to happen. we will see after the first debate. she has an advantage in the electoral college. cliche, but she has many more have then she -- many more paths than he does. mark: critiqued the manna from bethesda. >> dan balz is always right. i think hillary clinton has a lot of institutional advantage. you are right about the electoral college advantage. clearly this can be tightening at this point. especially against a candidate like clinton, given the importance of change in the race like this. i don't think she would even be where she worked if she were not running against trump. all that said, he was a hotly

contested candidate. i don't think the debates will change things. she has a lot of ways to win. i think she is on her way to do and that. john: adam, staying with you when there's talk about national security and foreign policy, veterans issues -- both campaigns seem to think they are playing a winning hand. neither one seems to be on defense. analyst at. often when you have to convince that think they are winning on the same issue. adam: were both present the idea that they are winning. clinton has a strong argument. we talked about the finger on the button, or the equivalent of --t in this digital age argument against trump. the idea that you do not want someone that has not had experience in foreign policy to be president in what could be a difficult time. trump does raise issues about clinton's record. will think, with two

candidates they clearly don't like and don't trust, which one will they be more comfortable about having in power to make critical life-and-death decisions? i think clinton might have a stronger hand to play. she has a strong record of blowing good hands. mark: there was panic in the republicans that the party would have to abandon their nominee. trump has had a good run. is that talk dead in republican circles? dan: i don't think it will ever go away. that is because there's so much question in republican circles, especially among those that worried about campaigns down ballot. he continues to be a volatile person and volatile candidate. he has been well scripted. he has stayed on message. but he always has the capacity to go off.

down thisat means stretch, the republicans are going to be nervously watching how much they want to embrace him, how much they want to keep distance, or which campaigns might want to go in a different direction and take the argument that we need a check against hillary clinton that she will be the president. right now some of that has tamped down. i think republicans are hoping against hope that the stern that they have seen in donald trump will continue. -- that this turn will continue. new 50 state: suggests that texas and mississippi is a tossup, including texas and arizona. does not comport with your thosertip feel about yo states? dan: no, i think we were surprised by those. mississippi is hard to explain.

i don't think there is any likelihood that donald trump loses mississippi. texas has been a change in state. democrats have talked about their hope of turning texas blue, as they put it. i think it's premature. it's not all that unusual in elections in texas that democrats begin to feel more hopeful. clearly something is stirring. we know that the bushes are not for donald trump. we know ted cruz is not for donald trump. the dallas morning news is not for donald trump, the first time they have endorsed a democrat since world war ii. there's something going on in texas. but in the end, texas ends up in trump's:. -- trump's column. mark: stripping out all the other variables, who seems to be performing better? adam: during this week, trump has been performing better. but again and again we see these

scenarios where she is scripted and -- he is disciplined for a day or two, and then everything blows apart. teleprompterd the from here on out that he would be, a better candidate -- i find that unlikely. everybody on the showbeen covering clinton since the 17th century that she is in some ways like obama. she likes to get her back up against the wall. just when everyone is writing her off, she gets good again. i think we will have at least one or two more of these events and she will be stronger again. john: guys, mitt romney has tweeted for the first time since july. it says "i hope the voters get to see gary johnson and bill wells on the debate stages this fall." we have both those folks on the show right after you. just tell me, do you think that

gary johnson is going to end up in the first debate, either by making the threshold of 50%, -- of 15%, or through some other means? dan: i am still doubtful, unless he's over that 15% threshold, that the commission will relent and put him on stage. i don't rule it out because this is such an unhappy electorate is looking for other options that the commission might feel they have to provide those in at least one of the debates. we will have to wait and see. he has declined more in the polls to make that come about. john: adam, what do you think? adam: i hate to say this, but i agree with dan again. where was he in the 50 state poll? dan: we did not have an actual national number. mark: he was about 15 in a number of states. dan: about 15 in 15 states.

mark: dan balz of the washington of thed adam nagourney l.a. times. no substitute for experience. coming out, a campaign manager walks into a hotel bar. you will be shocked at what happens next. we will tell you after this. ♪

>> this morning, mark and i, at 9:30 or 10:00 a.m., were sitting at a nearby otelco are but who

kellyannek in but conway. we asked her to take a seat and conducted an interview. we started by asking if voters really care about national security and who has the upper hand on that front. >> it has catapulted to the top of the voter concern list. increasingwith the which are isis, president referred to as the jv , instead of the savage murderers that they are, many americans are really worried about terrorism and the impact of violence here and abroad. san bernardino and orlando, certainly and brussels, paris. people are very worried about security. i noticed in a new nbc whole that donald trump has gained an

advantage with veterans in military households. my what a -- why would someone non-military -- people are increasingly understanding what it meant that she was secretary of state. it's an inappropriate use of state department time. people at the state department work for us, the taxpayers. there are a lot of trouble spots around the world that could use the united states state department help. how about giving rights to women and girls in countries where the you don't really give rights to women and girls the same way you do here. poor judgment, libya, syria, if

two thirds of the country want to go in a different direction and hillary clinton represents the old direction, then maybe look at mr. trump instead. it is a scourge on our nation if we don't take care of our veterans. he's talked about american exceptionalism. he's talked about making sure we don't go into war willy-nilly. hillary clinton voted for the iraq war. mark: this is an president for overountry, to turn things to someone who never held elective office and has no military background. is that something you are concerned about? how do you get over the public's rational concern that he is not

the typical background to be commander in chief? >> president obama had limited elected experience and no military experience when he was elected. when you think those who have been in charge have failed, and obviously then senator obama's ability to say -- it is the nagging issue for voters in 2008. how did he become president of the united states against senator john mccain? , younk it senator obama talk about experience, experience has gotten us to this ,lace in iraq and afghanistan then we should really think about the value of experience. i think that is very much donald trumps message.

mark: do you know the facts around his decision to make a contribution to sam bondy's political organization? my understanding is they never discussed trump university matters at all. it's very customary for him to contribute to republican candidates across the country. he's been very generous with his oftributions, including some the candidates who don't support him now in his presidency. you're just asking people to accept the timing as a coincidence? >> they say they never discussed it. there is no connection between that and hillary clinton using the state department with

contributions from foreign donors. it's just a coincidence and that's what people should treat it as? and donald trump say they never discussed that, so i would say yes. -- sam bondy and donald trump. i really hope everybody covers it with the same kind of vigor, toneling billions of dollars hillary clinton's foundation. there is a new york times story that says there's a whole history of donald trump violating campaign-finance regulations. -- he has proudly said he

made campaign contributions because he wanted to get something. she was considering whether to -- it was legal contributions from the charitable foundation. >> $25,000. it seems to a lot of people to look like straightforward -- the .ontribution was made >> i think the whole reason this is in the news is because donald trump is winning in the polls now. thanks to kellyanne

conway for taking part in that on-the-fly interview. we will be back with libertarian candidate gary johnson. as always, you can listen to us on the radio, and we will be right back.

>> one is a mountain climber, the other dabbles in fiction writing. they are running a third-party bid to take over the white house. our next guest is gary johnson, libertarian candidate for president and his vice presidential running mate, thank you both for joining us. policiesrt with some and talk about the u.s.-china

relationship. what is working and what is not working that you would try to change as president? need to join arms with china to deal with north korea, so diplomatically, that is something we have to push for. free trade, absolutely believe in free trade. includee dpp does not china, but i do not view china as the adversary -- i don't view them as an adversary. do you see them as a military threat at all? >> i think it is a very interesting time. i was thrilled that he, not being a cult of personality guy, one out over his opponent. i thought at the end of the day he would want to steer the country in a more western

orientation for economics purposes, and i still think that, but along the way, he has decided the commonest party's number one, it has to be protected at all costs. so we have the huge and type corruption probe, and being responsive to what the people about smog in beijing. those are two things he is pushing very hard. errors a lot to work with in terms of helping him look good, and i think we can engage productively on that basis. >> i think were seeing the tip of the iceberg in government controlled economy and it's just going to get a whole lot worse. perception that putin is trying to meddle in our affairs. give me a sense of what your posture would be towards russia. would like to engage putin in a

game of chess. havenk bill would love to that same opportunity. that said, we need to join hands with russia diplomatically to deal with syria. that is the solution when it comes to syria. do we really want to go to war over the baltic state? i don't believe so. the ussr broke up. of the ussr.rt if you want to call that a civil war, i wouldn't call it a civil war, but certainly a division of alliance, and do we really want to inject ourselves in that? going forward, i will like to strengthen relations with russia. i would love to not have a policy of division or antagonism. john: did you sense russia --ing to meddle in >> i would say it trends that way little bit.

i would approach it with somewhat less pleasure than the relationship with china. putin wants to do is not in our interest. his annexation of crimea, while the whole world kind of acquiesced, that was an aggressive move. or,t's a little bit testy perhaps, but russia has been a great country for a long time, and nothing would give me greater pleasure than being able to find common ground there. i agree with governor johnson, i think syria is exhibit a. hopeless. name, current or former supreme court justice that would be the model for the kind of justice you would? nominate? name names for anything. i certainly talk about qualifications, but i think it's just a mistake to name names.

as governor of new mexico, i was surprised at how many people came to apply for every single ,ob in state government agreeing with you, governor johnson, philosophically on what you have to say. the notion that the supreme court nominee would view the cost to ship standpoint of original intent. today we talked and we are going to get a briefing on what those words really mean and how we might better describe them. >> it means a lot, original intent means to keep in mind that this is a federal government of enumerated powers. limited, specified powers. under the 10th amendment, powers not expressly conferred on the federal government. mark: what is the current supreme court decision on the books that you disagree with? >> i would dial back citizens

united a little bit. i'm not sure gary agrees with me. >> kelo, that's the one about taking for public purposes and giving to a private party. now it is a feral. it didn't work out. >> you are asked about other black markets, sports gambling, prostitution. you didn't exactly answer the question. are you in favor of legalizing those kind of markets? >> i think those are really state issues, bottom line. i'm not looking from a federal standpoint to address those. i do recognize or believe that the federal government did step ,n and prevent online poker whatever decision or whatever i might do to reverse that, i would reverse that. john: should prostitution be

legal? is that something in principle you favor as a libertarian? the've never engaged services of a prostitute and have no intention of doing so, but if you were to do so, where would you do that? you would do it in the only state where it is legal. you would in -- you would do it in nevada where you know you would not contract a sexually transmitted disease. aboutwe're going to talk the challenges they face, right after this. ♪

mark: we're back with the

libertarian ticket for president. the big question you're facing right now, 15% threshold to get in that first presidential debate. do you think that threshold is too high? think the threshold is too high, but the issue is we are not included in any top line poll. that does not occur. 100% of poles is dollar trump and clinton, maybe we are the third name down and about half of those polls. line,were on the top tomorrow we would be at 20%, minimum. i have said this humorously before, and i mean it. if mickey mouse were the third trump andded with clinton, mickey would be at 30 because he is at a known quantity. if you accept the notion that 15% is the standard you're ising to reach, advertising

-- in sparsely populated states, why spend money advertising in states like that rather than going big and national? were at 15, 19, 23, 25 in those states. the republican cochair has said 15%ay be running well above in swing states. gary is running over 15%. in 40 states he was at 13% yesterday in the washington post poll. he leads among active military and young millennials. .e is second among independents so it is not like we are way down there. i do think the 15% is arbitrary. it was recommended to the debate commission that they lower it to 10%. the overwhelming fact is that 75-80% of the electorate, not just an interest group, wants us

in the debates. and the presidential commission is a tax-exempt nonprofit whose sole purpose is to help educate the citizenry on the presidential election. how can they say we should not even be in the debates, if they are answering the wrong question? they are answering who'd we think we like for president of the united states. -- the party pays who pays their bills through their major contributors? numbers arer poll high but they reach a decision they are not high enough, are you prepared to try to take some action to reverse their decision? >> i think there will be consequences for that. we are not in the iraq-iran veterans association for him this evening. mark: did you take action to try

to change that? heat forook a lot of it and i think there will be a lot of heat that will go along with not putting us in the debates. any legal recourse if you are denied access to the debates? commission on debates, that would go out of existence. ink: that would not get you the debates. >> not in september, not in time for the first debate. i think public opinion is going to be more important than any lawsuit. i'm going to make a lot of noise every day between now and november 8. this whole constellation of issues, are you beyond the powers of your? charter? are your being faithful to your supposed mission of educating the voters of the united states? or are you part of the

washington brainwashing scheme? are two more debate schedule currently. if you don't make it to the first debate, do you keep pressing on to get into the other debates? >> absolutely. the way things are ratcheting right now, if they announce the debate in seven or eight days, that could reverse itself. concretean be in because this is a moving target. i will just tell you, we have a lot of momentum going here. if you were to choose anything happening in your candidacy, it would be momentum. momentum does not reverse itself. john: who is playing donald trump in your debate prep? who is playing hillary clinton then? [laughter]

--we have all heard do you feel like the media is giving you enough access to the airwaves? , have youust saying seen the abraham lincoln political video which is now the most watched political video of all time? it came out 10 days ago, and there have been 18 million views. >> we promise to give you more. we will be right back. ♪

are impressive. their chances of getting in the debate are not as weak as i thought before. john: i think they are impressive. if they had a higher national profile, they would have a huge impact on this race. i hope the commission seriously consider spending whatever arbitrary rules it has to get them on that day is. all our coverage on donald trump's big national security speech. coming up, emily chang has the latest on apple's big product event today. thanks for watching. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪ . .

mark: i'm mark crumpton. you are watching "number west." donald clinton lead trump in the northeastern u.s. though her advantage in some states lies within the margin of

error. a survey shows that rhode island , traditionally a strong democratic state features a close race. races in newcates jersey and new hampshire are close. clinton is ahead in etiquette, vermont, massachusetts and maine. a north dakota judge issued an stein, accused of spray painting construction equipment during a protest against the dakota access pipeline. theetary of state kerry and russian foreign minister will meet in geneva on thursday to does this a possible syria deal. russia is a key ally of the sure all assad while u.s. supports rebels fighting to overthrow the syrian president. the international olympic he is promising all cooperation with brazilian authorities a ticket scout ring invest nation that targeted one of its top executives.