anna: asian stocks hold near a one-week high as the boj and fmo cedi begin -- fo mosey begin their deliberations. migration in mind. syria and its fallout are set to top the agenda as world leaders gather for the united nations general assembly. a very warm welcome to countdown. bright and early here in london.

it has just gone 6:00 a.m. let us talk about the big central-bank agenda. bothoj and the fed starting their deliberations today. we will get the results of those biblical -- of those deliberations tomorrow. itremind us if we needed that the yen has shrugged off the boj's stimulus efforts. the yen dollar rates in the white showing the yen strengthening since the january perio. the bank of japan now moving the negative rate in january. and we had the brexit vote. showing how the japanese currency is over the whole period, gained in value. as toists are still split whether the boj will do more or not. let us look at how we are trading. the central bank the liberations

in focus. msc i asia is up. back in play. topix is up. there is a discrepancy at about speculation that the boj versusurchase more topix nikkei stocks. the dollar index is fairly flat as we head towards the fed decision. the work of function showing 20% probability for september and 56% for december. the december number has edged up. 43.0. that is the price of a barrel of crude. speculation that the glut will continue. nigeria is talking positively about the talks they are having

with militants and their ability to restart production. rishaad: -- ros: authorities have caught the man they believe is responsible for the new year bombing attacks. rahami, a naturalized citizen from afghanistan. officials say they do not believe that he operated as part of a terrorist cell and are not actively seeking any other suspects. the aussie dollar rose following the release of minutes from the rbis september meeting. costseft borrowing unchanged saying the low rate is helping the economy. the newtes also show governor paying tribute to his predecessor saying glenn stevens made exceptional judgments during a challenging timeframe. two of the federal reserve's 23 are trading partners betting against their peers and the bond markets by forecasting

officials will raise rates on wednesday. it is the first time that more than one dealer has gone against the consensus during the week of a policy meeting. -- afters say traders the fed has remained on hold for longer than expected. the eu should offer the uk's some flexibility over migration to avoid a heartbreak -- over thek -- hardbreak other economy. necessary think it is to cut off the british financial services industry. i think it would be very difficult and bad indeed if europe committed to this point. if they said restrictions on to theon means no access market, i don't think we should start negotiations in that way. says thatargo ceo

they fail to customers and the public by reacting to slowly to employees creating accounts. has tumbleds stock as a result of the scandal losing its title as the world's most valuable bank to j.p. morgan. the obama administration is preparing to release a policy framework. the highly anticipated plan is set to include new ways for carmakers to share information on emerging technology and to call on states to pass their own legislation. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top go. this is bloomberg. let us find out what is happening in the asian equity trading. haidi lun has more on the details.

idi: it is hard to ignore the elephant in the room. everyone is waiting on the bank of japan. understandably, you see some risk aversion ahead of that but having said that, we are up as a region by 0.1%. there have been a few swings. the nikkei, the japanese market coming back online after yesterday's public holiday. sitting lower by 0.2%. goldman's coming out with a note this morning saying -- expect dramatic swings when it comes to the japanese market because not only do they have the boj decision to contend with but it is also a truncated trading week. is not a lot of time for traders to build momentum. elsewhere in the region, there was a action out of australia and the technical difficulties

there. the afx is pretty flat for the day. we are looking at hong kong seeing some losses, it down by about zero point fun -- 0.1%. shanghai is also lower. taking a look at what we are seeing in terms of the currency, the yen has been stronger today. not too much overreaction. holding at about 101 for most of the session. is a membere have of the boj board. she said she does not rank that it is a good idea for the boj to purchase more etf's. be hadieves there will chances for the boj to cut rates deeper. more about the

boj and what we expend from them in the next 48 hours. here is in tokyo have risen as the monetary policy meeting for the boj kicks off today. the optimism, as some analysts believe the central bank will continue its easing program. others see this decision by the argument showing that it has reached the limit of its power. we are joined by jeremy stretch. good morning. let us start with the boj. we have so much going on this week. let us start in japan. we kicked off the show with this chart. the rise of the yen in the face of negative interest rates. and everything else the bank of japan has thrown at the japanese market. >> that has been a real problem for japan.

the yen has been strengthening. look backresting to at that chart and go back to january when the boj did take rates down into negative territory. -.1.ng rates to there was a realization that it did not impact that many accounts. all of a sudden, the impact of to belicy was starting undermined. subsequently, we have seen a risk climate going on in the last few months. and then the brakes it. and that has caused risk aversion and risk averse investors go to home and investors -- home markets or they move away from kerry trades. -- carry trades. anna: what is your money on for tomorrow when we hear from the boj? what you think they will do? surveys suggest the market has

not got one view. >> we do have a range of views. the best way to get a better reaction or a larger reaction is to not have the whole range of probabilities priced in. in that context, the boj could argue that their program has provided scope for analysts to have a range of assumptions or the potential to get bigger bang for their buck in terms of whatever they do. in terms of the context of the leaks, to me it looks more likely that the bank will be considering once again coming back to conventional policy. interest rates -- but taking them more into negative rates. double a classic negative. we could argue that the bank of japan is around 40 basis point. i think that is probably around

-.5. they may use half of that. a 20 point cut in the rate. about -.3.own to leave the bond buying programs generally unchanged. try to be a little more flexible to get some upward slope in the yield curve. i think that is the way that it looks more likely. will there be enough? i think that will be the problem. anna: there has been some analysis that currency traders say fed policy determines the end direction rather than boj policy. they have been looking at what happens to a u.s. interest rates. they say that has more of a bearing on what happens to that yen. >> that is a bigger problem for

the trading of dollar-yen. we have the close proximity of the federal reserve decision within 24 hours. that will make it very difficult. time, wesix months could have more discussion about where the policy is going. and there will be a distortion because you will find it difficult to look at the boj in isolation. clearly the fed direction is going to be hugely influential for dollar-yen. hasbank of japan probably as much stake in what is going on externally in terms -- externally in addition to their internal policy. maybe they could push their meeting back 24 hours. anna: one of the strategists here at bloomberg is referring to this as the malodorous sandwich of meetings. thank you, jeremy. he will stay with us on the

program. here are some highlights for the day ahead. the head of policy announcements tomorrow from the boj and the fed. we get rate decisions from hungary and nigeria as well. we also hear more from syngenta and monsanto. they are set to testify today. and we get u.s. housing starts for the month of august. the new brazilian president is due to speak at the un's general assembly when it gets underway in new york later. erik schatzker caught up with him ahead of the meeting. you can see that interview at 10:00 a.m. this morning you take time. still too,, get by with a little help from your friends. decision couldte be a bonus for mario draghi's qe program. and then a metal meltdown.

we have a chart on gold. and the president gives his foinion -- the iso president gives his opinion on brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. you're watching countdown. the time in hong kong is 1:16 p.m. in the afternoon. the hang seng is down. the asia-pacific is pretty flat. let us go get a business flash. rosalind: some of the world largest headphones are considering expanding in asia as they seek new areas of growth. they have incorporated units in singapore this year. investors may increase holdings in the region.

deutsche bank is working to secure aliens of dollars in corporate loans to offload risk. a person said the bank is structuring the transaction as a loan obligation meaning the firm would keep servicing loans all transferring risk it to investors. to company is under pressure balance its sheets. ford has attacked donald trump after he criticized the company for switching small car production to mexico. donald trump called ford a disgrace. created said it has nearly 30,000 jobs in the u.s. in the last five years and noted was movedbusiness from mexico to ohio. takata shares have plunged. it comes as the company seeks a potential suitors

to submit proposals by the end of the week. almost 70 million tech data have needed tota be replaced. spokesperson declined to comment. the un's general assembly kicks off today in new york. with a strong emphasis on ending the global refugee crisis. global leaders signed a declaration yesterday aimed at tackling the effort. addressed the delegates on the urgency of the situation. not agree in today's declaration to make a strong effort to replace dangerous migration routes with legal ones, if we do not address the root causes of migration, if we do not accelerate the settlement

of refugees to countries around them, we that can host will fail. worse, wee matters will give space to nationalistic, xenophobic forces to show their face. anna: joining us now for more bloomberg news is our managing editor andrew. agreeing onew york a new york declaration on refugees. how much of a difference cannot make? difference cana that make? washe declaration yesterday there he limited in scope and ambition. a lot of the targets they set years away. i do not want to minimize it at a start. it is a good thing. but if you are lebanon and you

have more refugees than any other can't -- any other country per capita or if you are jordan -- this is very little comfort. we are six years into the syrian civil war with death toll of half a million. the fact that we are still talking about it and setting targets years away is not great. there is another meeting today on refugees that president obama is hosting. it is a summit of world leaders. actionsee more concrete there. obama wants more funding, more opportunities. we expect 40 some countries to make pledges. you can only speak at this meeting if you are putting your money or your actions where your mouth are. we may see some more concrete measures on the refugee front. anna: we will watch that with interest. more are some new -- newcomers. including from brazil and from the u k, theresa may.

what do they seek to get out of this meeting? >> this is a tradition going back to the 1940's. he has only been in office for one month. the former president was impeached. to me, the new brazilian president coming represents the new face of latin america. we have new presidents are previousrom the systems in the last 10-15 years. the brazilian president is seeking to reassure investors that brazil is a place for you to invest. that is a similar message we are hearing from the other companies. theresa may is coming with a different request. the refugee crisis which is testing the european project leading to the brexit vote and a lot of fringe parties coming to the core of european politics.

she will come and ask people to get a control on the issue of mass migration both at its source and how migrants are accepted and to ensure safe passage for them. anna: thank you, andrew. joining us from dubai. let us move on to the fed's decision tomorrow. it could offer a helping hand to the ecb. while the u.s. central bank is expected to keep rates on hold, any sign that there will be a move this year could yield leads andds -- global will help mario draghi. hawkishness would ease constraints. let us talk about the fed and what they are likely to do. still with us.is jeremy, we have the work function suggesting a 20% probability of a hike tomorrow which is not very high.

markets would be surprised if there was a hike. but to leaders are saying that the fed will hike. probability, that it does seem remarkably low in terms of the context of the potential risk of parameters. only a few weeks ago, we were looking at the comments from fisher and yellen around the time of the jackson hole meeting werehose percentages significantly higher. since then, we have seen mixed data and that white -- that is why the probability has drifted off. of a rate is fearful hike coming around. we went into the september meeting a year ago expecting that the fed would deliver a rate hike and they did not. on and, we are 12 months now we think there is generally that the probability has

been lifted somewhat. and we could argue that the fed has some leeway to hike rates. but the market would be very surprised. anna: that cpi number certainly seems to point more towards december. >> that is the way the market has positioned. it seems like a rerun of 2015. the fed should have had the case to move in september 2015 and did not. and came back in december and did hike. we expected to play out that way this year. talking about the boj meeting and the fed happening in the same week. whatuld be nice to know central bankers talk about amongst themselves. how much do you think mario draghi would like the fed to hike. that would have implications if

bond yields go higher. if that lifted bond yields in europe, that might put more bonds and his pile as eligible to purchase. will that be a priority for him? >> maybe not a priority but he would have a measured interest. it is a classic case of an intention -- unintended consequences. it would be hugely significant. if the fed were to significantly if wecurve to steepen, get u.s. tends up to 180 or 190 in the next few weeks, that would drag bond it yields higher in europe and that would help out the scarcity issue which is a concern for the ecb. without changing structural elements within their own bond buying program, they will run into bond buying constraints sooner rather than later. that does make that debate about bond buying ecb's

program can continue as it stands. anna: stay with us, jeremy stretch. reality nigeria's crude with an economy battered by low oil prices, we get a rate decision from nigeria. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. this is clamp -- this is countdown on bloomberg television. a new edition of daybreak is now available on your bloomberg. at some of a look the top stories. the cover story around deutsche bank. under pressure to bolster its balance sheet before resolving a u.s. probe. it is working to secure loans. we will watch deutsche bank with interest today. it was deutsche bank and reporting related to it and the questions it is facing in the u.s. that weighed on the

financial sector on friday. we will watch that story as it unfolds. the next story in the daybreak this morning is the news that two of the federal reserve 23 preferred bond trading partners, arelays and bnp paribas betting against their peers by forecasting that officials will raise rates on wednesday. this is the first time that more than one dealer has gone against the consensus during a week of a policy meeting since last september. will those two standing away from the crowd, will they be seen to be correct. going offhey are just the signals of the fed and that this is what jackson hole was all about. finally, daybreak focuses in on china. the pbo see strengthening the yuan reference right the most in two weeks. it is on a tight bleach -- tight leash after the g20 meeting that

took place earlier. what things are shifting. asian stocks are holding near a one-week high. let us look at the markets. nejra: i am focusing on japanese stocks looking at asian stocks because they are resuming trading after a public holiday. white,ek, the topix, in it recorded its longest losing streak since april 2014 the decline on friday. today, we are seeing the topix rising more than twice the nikkei. this is on speculation that the bank of japan may switch to favoring the broader benchmark in its purchases of ats. holdingadly, the msci the one-week high. there is a lot of focus on dollar-yen before the meetings this week. the dollar-yen unchanged today

but the yen is set for three straight quarters of game. the longest rally since 2011. a lot of additives -- a lot of strategists are saying that the biggest threat would be signs of hawkishness from the fed. there has been a greater tendency to move. what i have here is one month risk reversal. that theshowing in red premium to sell dollars and purchase yen have been increasing. a bit of a bullish yen skew in the risk reversals. i want to show you what is happening in the oil markets. brent are downnd a little today. in nigeria, a cease-fire with militants has allowed some production to start again. and you also have the u.s.

stockpile data expected out to show an increase. anna: gold is fairly flat this morning after last week's losses. our market middle east anchor joins us now with a chart of the hour. you may have thought with all of the torn -- with all of the would have seen an increased appetite for gold. ryan: that -- youssef: that is what you would have thought. the gold rally is currently trading at $1016 an ounce. the reality is that hedge funds have cut their positions on gold futures and options. they haveand pace been doing that at has been the half fastest -- has been the fastest since may. what you are looking at here, the yellow line is a gold price. you can see how the gains have

been wiped out. the blue line is your bloomberg economic surprise index. is that evenws us with disappointing u.s. economic data, it is not making much dent in the gold price also. median bloomberg focus in the third quarter for gold. atyou put money into gold the beginning of the year, you would be up about 24%. still, arguably not a bad return compared to other assets. anna: thank you very much. joining us from dubai. in a week dominated by the fed and the boj, we will also hear from other policymakers around the world. the central bank of nigeria gives its decision today. it has already raised rates twice this year. for more, let us bring in our reporter from johannesburg. great to have you on the program. what can we expect from the nigerian central bank today?

>> it seems that nigerian policymakers will have to balance between record high inflation and an economy that is expected to contract this year for the first time in 25 years. economist surveyed by bloomberg, eight forecast that the benchmark rate will be kept unchanged at 14% this afternoon. one predicted a cut and said policy will be titans. came outce minister strongly speaking against the rate hike that took place at the last meeting in july. he said that rates it needed to be cut but the central bank has to foster growth and attract foreign capital and prop up the currency. that we mayating see a contraction in that economy for the first time in a quarter of a century. despite that, despite the difficulties the country is faced with with the weakness in

the oil price, that is not deterring people from investing in africa especially tech investors. >> the investors from silicon valley are still seeing an opportunity. africa the projects in were mainly from industries like telecom and technology. mark zuckerberg made it his first visit to nigeria and kenya and he stated that he was very impressed with the entrepreneurial spirit in nigeria. we know that technology has also seen success in south africa and is expanding to other parts of africa including nigeria and donna. it does seem like tech companies companies are seeing opportunities in africa. anna: going into technology and not oil banking on the increasing middle class and

consumer in africa. much for joining us from johannesburg. rio tinto is becoming more optimistic about china. there has been a pickup in the construction market. the ceo spoke to jonathan ferro about china's importance to the global mining industry. >> china is very important for the mining industry. it is ralph 50% of the global -- it is around 50% of the global income. we do spend a lot of time in china. i was there two weeks ago for the g20 meeting. it is safe to say that the partners andd us suppliers. much moreoming cautiously optimistic in relation to china. few examples.u a it is very important for us especially with iron ore and copper -- the construction market in china.

housingat the rate of in tier one through tier for cities. the inventory is dropping in tier one and t are two cities. two cities.and tier if i look at these metrics and the way the chinese are looking at the economy, it is not about gdp. they talk about consumer consumption. that is what the officials in china talk about. about exports. if you look at those key metrics, they are all moving slowly but surely in the right territory. that, the drops we have experienced in terms of activity in china seems to plateau.

we are becoming more cautiously optimistic. >> some might say you are sitting on the fence. >> know, we are moving in the right direction. you asked me a question a couple of months ago where we were slightly concerned. if you remember that i said in the current market environment, which was very uncertain, we had to be very cautious and conservative in the way we run our business. what i am saying now is that we are going to make the best of it. anna: sticking with the commodity story. minutes from the latest rba meeting shows the australia's central bank is seeing an unexpected boost in a 30% jump in commodity. the bank decided chinese high-cost producers producing their output of bulk commodities. trendsties some of these

together with jeremy stretch. let us talk a bit about the chinese growth story. comesnto is where this back to. we have a chart as investors are turning more optimistic. they are cautiously optimistic and things are moving in the right direction. >> we are cautiously optimistic as well. i do think there are obvious abouts -- you can talk the underperforming loans and the issues related to credit but ultimately, we are of the view that we will continue to see growth of 6% or better in the next year or so. and that is broadly in line with what the chinese authorities are attempting to achieve. in that context, that would that some of these metrics

the commodity producers are talking about and it will provide a cautiously supportive tone for commodity dynamics. pessimistic onot china. anyone that watches this though the chineseare of politics. i was drawn to some comments from an official from the minister -- ministry of commerce saying china cannot be blindly optimistic on trade. that was an honest assessment. >> one should not be blindly optimistic. there are huge challenges globally. rising populism, rising question marks about local trade trends and if there was a change in leadership in the u.s. with a potential republican in the white house who may change global trade trends. we have the brexit arguments in terms of european trade close as well.

there is a huge confluence of factors which may destabilize global trading systems. but we have to be mindful of those risks but we are not over playing them at this juncture. anna: markets have been much more volatile in september than they were in the summer. and looking at the chart on the gold prices. not even the how disappointing u.s. economic data and the volatility we have seen in other asset classes have sparked more interest in gold. does that make sense to you? why are people not more excited about gold when they are nervous? >> we have seen a strong rally in the price. it has been increasingly more difficult to move beyond that. i think we are seeing a scenario that if we are thinking there is

still a reasonable probability of interest rates going up if not tomorrow then certainly before the end of the year, then that zero rate story which has been negative -- which has been beneficial to the gold price is no longer accurate. but, just in case the federal reserve does push upgrades. anna: as to have suggested they might do. what about your base case around the oil story? rent is at 45.78. at 45.78.s markets remembering that there is a glut. and nigeria and libya may be producing more again. >> i think we will continue to see supply coming back onto the market. and that will be a constraint in terms of any moves. we are in an arranged trading scenario. i think that is the best case

perspective for the oil-producing sectors. certainly from my own experience with meeting some of the oil producers in canada and the western provinces, they were much more fearful about the falling price backdrop in late 2015 and the beginning of this year than they are now. they have become accustomed to and oil price that is more stable. they have not liked the scenario but they have learned to live with it and i expect they will continue to do so on the presumption that in the medium run, that supply overhang will start to diminish if we are correct that global growth in global trade continues to grow at a reasonable clip. anna: maybe that is the reason for the cautious optimism. >> you have some pessimism and then a flat line. anna: thank you, jeremy stretch. he will stay with us a little bit longer on the program. theng up, the president of

gives us his opinion on brexit. at 7:00, get by with a little help from your friends. how yellen's decision could be a bonus for mario draghi. and self driving cars. the obama administration is set to lay out policy on self driving vehicles. we will bring you all of the details. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. the empire state building based in green light for climate week in new york. 1:40 a.m. in new york. down by zerore point 2% at the start of the trading day. a big week for the boj and the fed. rosalind: some of the world

largest hedge funds are expanding in asia. they haveto filings, incorporated units in singapore this year while asian hedge funds have not been immune to problems that have plagued the industry, some investors may increase holdings in the region betting they can beat rivals in the market. ford has attacked donald trump after he criticized the company for shifting to small car production of mexico. donald trump called ford last week and disgrace saying it was cutting american jobs. exclaim rebutted by the carmaker. ford said it has actually created 30,000 jobs in the last live years and has moved its truck business from mexico to ohio. takata shares have plunged. it comes as the company seeks a buyer asking potential suitors to submit proposals by the end

of the week. almost 70 million airbags were due to be replaced over the next few years following a recall over defective parts that have led to as many as 15 deaths worldwide. a spokesperson declined to comment. should offer the u k flexibility on migration to with europe's economy that could be damaging for both sides according to the president of the ifo. he spoke to caroline hyde here at bloomberg. >> i don't think it is necessary to cut off the british financial services industry. i think it would be very difficult and bad indeed if europe committed to this point and said that restrictions on to theon means no access market. i don't think we should start negotiations in that way. anna: let us get the thoughts

from jeremy stretch. what are you seeing in the tea leaves? we feel like we get bits of information on where the u k government thinks it is going. but then, theresa may puts up a run and says we will not you through the details of our thinking. >> the government does not want to lay out what it's negotiating strategy will be but it seems to be the case that the hard brexit scenario is growing in terms of traction within the confines of the u k government. keen on much more absolute control of immigration irrespective of the single market access. and that seems shortsighted and that would be bad news and detrimental to the growth trajectory in the u k. theresa may is in new york now

trying to reassure business and the new york -- in the u.s. that the u k is open for business. may say that we did not vote to turn our backs on the rest of the world. poundit be further negative if there was a hard brexit? they could be more complicated. there could be no blanket access to the single market but a lot of access for financial services or other cheery picked industries. >> some people would love an a la carte menu and opportunities for the u k. anna: a menu du jour. >> if we were to get a scenario which would be a la carte which would allow the uk's to have some of the better bits of the european menu, that would be less detrimental to you k activity. but if you start to lay out a

scenario where global growth in the u k is going to be compromised by potentially lower levels of inward investment because of a lack of thing the market access, then it is difficult to see anything but the pound being the barometer of that in terms of impacting a lower trajectory. anna: what are your projections on the pound? what do you focus on? where would you see this the most clearly expressed? a eurocentric perspective, there is a confluence of factors with the ecb, the lackluster growth trajectory, the rise of populism in europe. it is more likely to be seen via stirling in the u.s. looking at this chart you can see quite clearly where brexit was without seeing the calendar

on the bottom. although this is a closing basis. extreme.look even more has to be that stirling will be an underperformer. we have the probability of another rate easing to come from the u cable for the end of the year, most likely in november. interest-rate will move even further against the u k. there are a lot of questions about the timing of article 50. there are growth trajectory substantially slower. i think there will be a recession. and a slower trajectory in 2017. it is all backed up to a stirling story which is in the mid one 20's versus 130 plus. versus 130 plus. to bek the banks are keen proactive and they will come

back with a revised set of forecast in november. if they continue to suggest that there will be headwinds and if we take the central bank at face value, if we think about mark carney, it is seemingly less the presumption that the bank would feel it necessary to move rates down to .1. anna: the ecb is meeting. >> there are these crosscurrents. we are reliant on the u k consumer being the element that will maintain that the u k does not have a recession scenario. we have to balance between consumer spending and excesses edness. i anna: it is not often that the fmoc gets upstaged. but the bank of japan seems to

be at the top of the list. what does governor corona have up his sleeve? what will happen to the currency? this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: asian stocks holding at a one-week high as the boj and flimsy again their deliberations ahead of crucial rates decisions. fed betshe against the market. and migration in mind. syria and its fallout are set to copy agenda as world leaders gather for the general assembly. welcome to the program. this is "countdown." just gone 7:00 in london, and

the reason i am looking down is because there is breaking news coming through from glaxo. ceo, andk naming a new wormsley. she's being named as the ceo designate, the headline that we have coming through on that one. we're+++

operates in the retail space, home improvement in particular. the first half adjusted pretax adjusted, 418 million. the focus was always going to be on the profitability of the company. it's facing a renewed environment because of bombings with fat -- bunnings coming in. first half retail profits of 464 million, ahead of the estimate of 459 million. the interim dividend came in at 3.25 pence. the adjusted basis came in at 13.6 pence. a lot to digest in the kingfisher story. 6.7%.ike sales are up by this is a company that can act as a bit of a bear in the new retail space, and on format openings and this rivalry with other businesses in the tralizedetails -- cen sourcing initiatives and focus. the kingfisher statement talking about the brexit, to say the eu referendum has created uncertainty, and also saying that they remain cautious on france in the short-term.

some analysts are concerned that the recovery of the french market might has been delayed into the second half of 2017. that was certainly the view of jeffries going into these numbers. that's an update from kingfisher. we have also been looking for producer price numbers coming out of germany. the german produced price num bers coming in line with estimates. let's see where the european equity market will open up this morning. we're a little bit weaker at the start of trade, and that ties in with what we were seeing in the u.s.. futures were suggesting a slight weakness, but nothing substantial. down on the euro stoxx 50. the msci asia-pacific showed a move to the upside. you can see that we were up by .1% toward the close in the asian session. a mixed picture coming out of japan, reflecting speculation around the boj.

nikkei down by .2%, topics up by .4%. perhaps we could see the boj moving toward nikkei down by to, which could benefit their market. the dollar index as we head toward the boj and fed, 95.89. nymex at 43, the oil price is weaker, a reminder that we have this glut, and we have positive comments about negotiations with militants coming through the minister in nigeria. that's something the market is thinking about this morning. let's get to the news. the bloomberg first word. tom mackenzie has that for us. tom: thank you. chose the manve responsible for the new york bomb attack. he's a naturalized u.s. citizen and afghanistan native, arrested

after a shootout with police. he is facing five counts of attempted murder of a law enforcement officer. officials say they do not believe he operated as part of a terrorist cell and are not actively seeking any other suspects. the also dollar rose following the release of minutes from the rba's september meeting. the central bank left bar when costs unchanged, saying the rate is helping the economy absorb followed business investment. the that is also show the new governor paid tribute to his glennessor, saying stevens made exceptional judgment during a challenging period. 23 of the federal reserve's preferred bond trading partners, barclays and pmp ba pnb par ribas, are saying that the fed officials will raise rates. it's the first time they have gone against consensus on the week of a policy meeting. economists at both banks say traders have too steeply

discounted possibilities. the eu should offer the uk's some flexibility on migration to avoid a heartbreak with europe's economy that could be damaging for both sides, so says clemens west, the president of the economic institute. he spoke to bloomberg. >> i don't think it is necessary to cut off the british financial services industry. i think it would be very difficult and bad if europe point, if theyhis said restrictions on migration means no access to the internal market. i think we should start negotiations in that way. -- shouldn't start negotiations in that way. will says fargo's ceo that the banks failed customers and the wider public by reacting too slowly that staff created accounts without authorization.

he will say he's deeply sorry, and will show how the bank will tackle misconduct. wells fargo's stock has tumbled as a result of the scandal, l. obama administration is preparing to release a policy framework to handle the arrival of self driving cars. the highly anticipated plan is said to include new ways for carmakers to share information on emerging technology, and to call on states to pass their own legislation. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top go. i'm tom mackenzie. this is bloomberg. anna: many thanks. let's check in on the markets in asia. haidi lun has details. diverging pictures depending on whether you look at the nikkei or the topix. all things japanese are looming large today. haidi: that's right. it is hard to get away from the central theme, and we do have

day one of the boj. we had some pretty good games when it comes, to the tokyo market playing catch-up. with did have some good gains in neighboring korea and on the chinese markets yesterday, but we have given all that up. the dk 225 closing lower, so losing their nerve as investors try to put bets on whether the boj will be continuing in the buying. it has been heavily criticized. or whether they will do some other combination of using or will do nothing at all. number of that policy-setting committee until recently came out just about an hour ago, saying it is not a good idea for the boj to buy more. she thinks the cost of going into negative rates is less than more asset purchases. this is how she thinks they will go, there is a high chance that is what we will get.

as we wait, this is how we ended up in sydney. we had a full trading session after the halt yesterday on account of those trading technical difficulties we saw. elsewhere around the region, hong kong off by .5%, shanghai extending losses in the next hour, lower by about .2%. some weakness coming through from emerging agent. it's really difficult for investors to show commitment, given all of these question marks. the other thing that is driving this is oil prices. we had that jump yesterday, buying into equities, and now we are seeing the reversal. this ioil stocks leading declinn it comes to the asian session. anna: thank you. haidi lun with the update for hong kong. the bank of japan's two-day policy meeting his kicks off on the agenda, the result of the central bank's monetary policy copperheads of review. well stateside the fed's to date

meeting is due to begin later today, futures are pointing to a hold of this month, that investors will be looking for any signs it is prepared to make a move later this year julie. us now, antonin great to see you. your explore how you and colleagues at citigroup are preparing for these vague events that could create a great deal of volatility and opportunity. i've pulled up a chart on the yen. you will see the white is the yen and the appreciation we have seen, despite everything that the boj has thrown at markets since the start of the year. as they sit down to review policy, what do you think they should conclude about what they have done so far and do next? through the comprehensive review they are concerned that daily rates, -- are worse. i.e., it's what needed to balance. that said, we don't think they

will cut further negatives tomorrow, so there is room for disappointment. if you look at the last two months, it has all been about what thosdoes juncker mean for equities. freights start going back up, and what interesting phenomenon a bucket that had been underweighed for pretty much 10 years now. it's not that they are going long, it's just that they are normalizing the short. it's too risky in case rates go high. anna: we will return to the other investment strategies you are employing. just to explore further, you said that they won't cut rates, or that is the expectation. all of your colleagues at citigroup -- will they do anything? >> quite likely to do nothing.

maintaining whatever they happen during, talking about further negative rates. we are calling for a further rate cut by year-end, but not this meeting. the impact on the yen and the nervousness in the market you highlighted is high. the options are pricing the 2% move, which is decent. 5% move.ese etf is a so we are pricing some move from an option for sure, and the combination of boj and fed will tell us what it looks like. anna: real volatility being priced into the dollar. the white really ticking upwards in and around this boj meeting. but it's not just the boj. we have the fed meeting of course as well, a real short as boarl smorgasbord.

what is your expectation with barclays and bnp sticking their heads in saying that the fed will hike? >> we think there will be a hike, most likely, just not this time around. there has been some recent softening in the u.s. data at the manufacturing level and services level. that combined with some of the uncertainties we are seeing, we expect them to hike, but further down the line. anna: they must be very mindful of the political events in november and how that could change, or might not change, the outlook. it's a big unknown.they don't know what markets will look like in december. if they wanted to do a hike, isn't it now or maybe later? >> there will be a game theory of saying that to do it before the election, if you assume they will do one and wait for longer,

then yes, it could make sense. that said, we have been here many times before. i see expectations of the next hike to go up. 40% as of are at few weeks ago. we don't think it's going to happen this time around. anna: thank you very much. antonin jullier, from citigroup. we will get more of his equity strategy, the bread and butter of what he can talk to us about, a little bit later. up next, assembly required. global leaders at the u.n. look to tackle the worst crisis since the second world war. we look ahead to a busy day in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back. a live shot of london, looking gloomy this morning. 7:17 in london.

the u.n. general assembly kicks off today in new york, with a strong emphasis on ending the global refugee crisis. yesterday, global leaders signed a declaration aimed at tackling the issue. alexis tsipras addressed delegates on the urgency of the supplementation. >> if we do not agree in today's declaration to make strong efforts to replace migration very roots with legal ones, if we do not address the root causes of migration, if we do not accelerate the settlement of refugees to countries around the weld that ca host themn, will fail. and what is worse, we'll give space to nationalistic, xenophobic forces to show their

face. anna: joining us for more, our government managing editor joining us from to buy. good to see you. leaders yesterday agreeing on the new york declaration on refugees. how much does this move the dial on the refugee story, something we have been following for many years? >> good morning. we have the following it closely, and as you know, this issue of migration and refugees projectng the european and has fed into the u.s. election. it's really roiling politics around the world. unfortunately the declaration we got yesterday is going to be too little and too late for many countries like lebanon, which has more refugees per capita than any country in the world. the target, the agreement is to come up with a global pact by 2018. we are six years at the civil war, half a million dead, and we

are still talking about how to come up with a solution. for some it will be enough. it is a start, and more importantly, obama will be bringing together world leaders to see if he can get concrete pledges from them. anna: the only people welcome at that meeting were president obama and those regard to put their money where their mouth is. there were a few newcomers this time around, most notably from brazil and the uk what will the leaders of those countries be seeking to get from these meetings? brazil, peru, argentina, they will be presenting a new face of latin america. lula's gone, they all have very populist policies. now we come back with perhaps more pragmatic policies, and they will be speaking to reassure investors and get some money. may will represent -- we had tsiprays, s, may will be the sa.

we need to get these issues of refugees under control. it is feeding human smugglers, roiling politics, i in partt led to the brexit vote, and she will be calling for action on the issue of refugees, as well obama. we should hopefully see some concrete pleasures for funding more refugees. anna: a busy agenda for the u.n. thank you, andrew. joining us from dubai. let's talk investment strategy. our guest from citigroup is still with us here in the studio. antonin, we have theresa may going over to new york, talking about brexit. she says brexit means brexit, and we are still waiting to find out what that means. meanwhile, you have been following a basket of stocks in relation to the brexit vote, and you have some interesting thoughts. >> just trying to comment on the

ftse has the footsi bounced. the yen bounced as well because currencies were the big risk off when money had to be reinvested. what has been touch and go is this feeling that -- we selected a basket of stocks which we thought would be especially exposed. is seeing new lows as of yesterday. the real names which will be impacted by what may happened with the trade agreements and so on is performing as you would expect. anna: so companies that have a big global presence and the basin the uk, with the financial services sector? services,ade versus importers and exporters, a lot

of currency. a wealth effect as well. but the price action for us, it can show that brexit is creating uncertainty, and you can look at it through the prices. anna: if you want to have a look at that index, you can plug it in now. now, elsewhere, we are talking about bond proxies and how that has been one of the big strategies lost interest rates have been so low. it looks a little bit like bonds. where do you see that going? on deals are drifting up a little bit. >> medium to long-term, we think it is still the right strategy. the lack of growth and lack of escape velocity tells us that bond refugee-like stocks will continue to perform well.

one change has been that the reason outperforming stocks, and the inflows, and the valuations, have made the space crowded. long bond refugee with some type of rate hedged we think makes sense. because you can buy options which are conditioned. -- shorter-term, we think trades which give exposure to value art d vested. it is under way. one example of europe would be to go along banks, short industrials. growth, youing the are trying to go for the segment of the market which is the cheapest. anna: i like that. i can pull up a chart of technology stocks. analysts are saying the s&p 500 technology stocks over in the

u.s. show broad-based strength. we saw apple doing nicely, helping the u.s. outperform europe on some measures last week. technology somewhere you are excited to be at the moment? >> the characteristics of technology as a sector are interesting. it thosen get growth, generate free cash flow. it's not super far away from the bond proxies we mentioned. it's about cash generation and being able to access it. we tend to see buyers as we saw yet again. anna: we were also telling me in the break about interesting hedging you are seeing from your clients, hedging in terms of central bank risk and election risk. what are you seeing? exit, weme way we have have the u.s. election, that has been disconnecting recently.

the market is pricing in hillary leading with a margin, versus the odds we saw in the last few days. otherwise from a hedging point of view, it's about downsized equities. whether it's because of the bond rotation and what we talked about in the central banks or because of a trump victory, trump is seen as a candidate which, is elected, you would see a higher tenure u.s. these hedges are coming between hedging the positioning as well as the election outcome. anna: so investors the trump means higher interest rate. thank you very much for joining us. antonin jullier. we will hear from glaxo this morning. gsk saying they promoted a new ceo of the uk's largest drugmaker to succeed andrew witty. this major global

pharmaceutical company, one of the few with a woman at the helm. "on the move" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: welcome to "on the move." 7:30 in london. we are counting it down to the european open. i'm guy johnson, alongside caroline hyde in berlin. here is what we are watching. the fed and the boj begin their meetings.we will talk about risk at two of the fence primary dealers. deutsche bank getting creative. the lender is said to secureitize loans. what else can he do? and the case for commodities in the world ic