scarlet: u.s. stocks closing higher this afternoon, oil rising. joe: but the question is, "what'd you miss?" scarlet: account down to the decision, rates at about 23%. the rate decision in japan in just a few hours. fedex posting results in minutes. it will be front and center. we begin with market minutes, gains on major indexes before the fed decision and boj decision tonight. and bonds both rising ahead of those central-bank announcements. when you look at the different sectors, six out of 11 major groups were higher. this comes on the heels of disappointing housing revenue data which you will get into

later on. down .0 orp ended .01. a call before the storm feeling before tonight's boj and fed decision. matt: individual stock movers today are big stories. check out for example a couple mergers moving stock today, mergers we knew about. dow and change in the s&p. gains for monsanto, for example. if the merger goes through, it will drop the monsanto name because that is just add pr. hotels get approval from chinese regulators to get blocked by marriott. starwood again or, fedex in moments with its earnings, the stock rallies into the release. joe: let's look at government

bonds ahead of these big central bank decisions. sorry, i forgot about wells fargo. getting killed last week, but doing well this week. pretty quiet as the final count ahead of those central-bank decisions. in theexpect more action next few hours with regards to the boj and the fed. i want to look at a chart of the 10 year yield. there is something i want to point out, around 6:00 a.m., yields started to slide. it was fairly dramatic at the time, and there is a poll showing hillary clinton gaining. there is a theory that donald trump will be good for higher yields because more fiscal stimulus. i am not saying there's a connection, but i did think it was interesting that was our high point of the day, and then we slid right at 6:00 on the dot at the same time as nbc poll.

it is something people should pay attention to to see if a pattern emerges area -- emerges. the: the theory is that republican would borrow and spend more than a democrat. joe: exactly. scarlet: we have a central-bank double-header, with the boj decision due later. you also have to pay attention to the pattern. it is below $1.30. one analyst -- some analysts say positionhaps a hawkish for the fed, it could drop to one dollar 28 ends. $1.20. we will be watching that. thetalk a little bit about hillary clinton and donald trump prospects. the paper has played that idea, lowened to a new record

among be expanded majors. some speculation that the central bank may be forced to intervene. though they think it is unlikely to happen before the fed. it has plunged 5.2% this month. they say it is only a matter of time before it reaches 20 four dollars. matt: get out your pesos. quiet, still below $44 a barrel. talk of another opec decision. and opec meeting coming up. another commodity i want to look ableinc, which is having big day, demand for base metals out of china having a big day. one of the gainers on the bloomberg was the price of zinc. scarlet: those are today's bloomberg minutes, let's take a deep dive into the bloomberg.

you can see the functions of the bottom of the screen. talking about the peso, intrigued by this idea how it reacts to the risk of a trump presidency. i showed this chart to matt, he wanted me to show it again. it is a look at the spread between two months employed volatility on the peso -- the includes theriod election, and the one-month does not. if you want to hedge risks, you want protective options. spike.seeing a if we zoom in, this is a tenure chart going back to 2007, early 2007. it has really jump to the highest levels ever. really shows the steepness of this curve. people are moderately concerned about the peso right now. hedging the risk two months out. these time spreads are a nice way of isolating specific event

risks that we know at some specific point in the future -- it provides the clearest evidence yet of how this election is impacting. matt: if you hit reset ago back to the original view, what i love about this chart is that it is relatively flat for so long. that is the financial crisis, the giant dip down. more recently you can see the brought -- brexit though. there are not many blips that are up. looks like people are more concerned about the world coming to an end, not hedging out this individual risk one month away. i have a chart i stole from neil this morning. he points out that single-family , farsales in blue here outpacing single-family housing starts in white. obviously, that cannot continue. this is normalized from the beginning of 2012.

the beginning of 2012 in january they're both at 100. it shows you the road from that point. i think it is interesting that the shortage of labor that is holding people back, there is a concern about uncertainty in the future holding people back, and rates. this ties really well into the fed tomorrow. on the other hand, great news for the economy, isn't it? come permitsly become starts. eventually it has to -- scarlet: it will calibrate. matt: we have to see more building before that happens. scarlet: speaking of homes, i am paying attention to the home -- nation's biggest home lender, wells fargo. it took a beating on capitol hill. there are multiple exchanges. here is one between senator lisbeth warren -- year'se this massive

longest scam came to like him you have said repeatedly quote, i am accountable. have you resigned? >> not yet. >> have you returned one nickel? take that as a no. i am not asking about regional managers or branch managers. i am asking if you have the fired senior management? the people who lead community this,g decision, oversaw in charge of making sure the bank complied with the law? did you fire any of those people? evidently your decision of accountable is to push the blame to your low-level employees who don't have the money for a fancy pr firm to defend themselves. it is gutless leadership. do you know how much the value of your stocks went up when the scam was going on? >> it is on the public filing. >> you are right, because i

looked it up. the share price during this time went up by about $30. which comes out to more than $200 million in gains, all for you personally. you should resign. you should give back the money that you took while this scam was going on. and you should be criminally investigated by both the department of justice and the securities and exchange commission. you squeezed your employees to the breaking point so they would cheat customers and you could drive up the value of your stocks and put hundreds of millions of dollars in your own pocket. and when it all blew up, you kept your job. you kept your multimillion dollar bonuses. and you went on television to blame thousands of $12 and our employees just trying to make quotas that made you rich. for theonally support

person in charge of compliance? you will have no recommendation at all. if you have no opinions on the most massive fraud that is hit this bank since the beginning of time, how can it be that you actually get to continue to collect a paycheck as chairman of the board? in 2008, wall street promised change. but it looks like it is business as usual. a giant bank cheats the little guy, and the executives line their own pockets. you make it clear that wall street won't change until we make a change. thank you. scarlet: calling and exchange may have been generous there, did not say very much there. but when he did answer, as you and i know, he did not have that much more to say than i do not know, i will find out. matt: i will talk to my team,

who was probably responsible for this. joe: it was a brutal delivery that you will ever see. perspective, it shows why people love elizabeth warren so much, why she is grown to have such a huge following because she can deliver something like that in a way other politicians cannot. liberal democrats level elizabeth warren so much, but the interesting thing about this hearing, everybody was brutally aggressive. chuck schumer was the nicest guy of anyone. but richard shelby did not pull any punches, menendez did not pull any punches. both sides of the aisle, everyone was out there and had a punt of research. so every time he would say he was not aware, they would bring up an e-mail that proved the points that they were trying to make. very interesting, i highly recommend people check that out.

coming up, the data debate heating up. what is more important to the economy? whatyment, inflation, and does the yield curve actually say about the economy? the answer next with three charts. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: imr come to an, let's get the first word news. donald trump campaigned in north carolina today. at a rally at high point university he took exception to hillary clinton's assertion that his rhetoric serves as a recruiting tool for islamic state. mr. trump: why, because i am tough it is a recruiting tool? it demonstrates a level of

ignorance about the terror threat that really is disqualifying for person seeking the presidency. when she says my opposition to radical islamic terror provides aid and comfort to the enemy, we know that hillary clinton has once again, demonstrated that she is really unfit for office. mark: speaking on a conference call with the national security advisers, secretary clinton says recent violent attacks show "to defeat the terrorists, we need experienced, steady leadership." mr. trump and secretary clinton are neck and neck in north carolina. a new poll has trump leading clinton by one point, 44 to 43%. mrs. clinton has an overwhelming lead among african-american voters. mr. trump leads among white voters, 65% to 35%. third candidate gary johnson comes in at 6%. the father of the new jersey and

new york bombing suspect told the fbi in 2014 that his son was a terrorist. that is according to reports and multiple media outlets. fbid khan rahami's told the his son was interacting with bad people overseas. he later recanted those claims. capturedn rahami was monday in new jersey, reportedly carrying a journal with writing sympathetic to jihadist causes. authorities on the greek island of lesbos called for the evacuation of refugees. onple rioted and set fires eight camp. more than 4000 refugees were housed there. the european union official said transfers to the mainland would be limited to avoid a secondary movement to the rest of europe. hours a day,4 powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark rented, this is bloomberg. scarlet? we have earnings that

of fedex, adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter of $2.90. that tops analyst estimates, higher than the same time a year ago. revenue coming in better than expected. $14.7 billion, fedex was expected to report $14.6 billion. outlook, they have indicated full fiscal year, this year, adjusted earnings per share to 11.35,rom 10.85, including the integration of at&t, which it purchased. it looks like a miss compared to consensus estimates by analysts. the did not include results. this new forecast does appear to miss the consensus estimates of $11.89. just to let you know, the cost

of integrating at&t and expenses came to about $.17 a share for the quarter. the company also says it is unable to forecast fiscal year 2017 year and market pension adjusting. these companies need to do that, and that has been difficult to get their heads around. but that is the latest update from fedex regarding its market to market pension account adjustments. full fiscal year, capital spending forecast, including at&t of $5.6 billion, as well. so we will -- joe: a little higher, not a ton of reaction. scarlet: we will continue to dig through this and let you know about updates. in the meantime, "what'd you miss?" wall street zeroing in on whether chair yellen can bring clarity. matt, theyeporter have a dual mandate, so let's

start with employment. are we at full employment, what is the data show us? matt: big debate, how close are we to full employment? one big thing to consider going into the fed meeting this week, the labor market sending mixed signals. not dissimilar to what we had going into the july meeting, where we had the bad jobs report for may going into it. there were a lot of questions about what was actually going on. in august, the latest data we had on the labor market, we got bad signals in terms of total hours worked. total hourshows worked, the year-over-year change. you can see in august it was the weakest since 2010. the people at the fed who think maybe we are not so close to full employment, this will give them ammunition. it is like we do not need to necessarily raise rates right away based on the market.

of the most disconcerting things on either side of the slowdown, the fed does not have much dry powder, so to speak. they cannot easily cut further. there are questions about the efficacy of more qe. you have focused on, not only can they not cut the rate, unless it wants to go mate -- negative on the nominal rates, even guidance capabilities are diminishing. i have a chart here showing the number of hikes racing over the next five years, has really collapsed this year. what are we seeing here? matt: the white line shows the number of hikes over the next five years, kind of like the yield curve. you can see we have the flattest yield curve since going back to -- 2007. the blue line shows goldman financial conditions index. when that goes down, financial conditions are getting tighter. when they go up there getting easier.

you can see i have it circle because we have a tightening of financial conditions. long-term interest rates really plummeted as a result of that. now that there is an easing of financial conditions, rates have not gone back up. there is a real question as to, what are we getting out of the lower interest rates? o'er these easier financial conditions? it is something that can lead to a sustained pickup in growth, and that those interest-rate tire again. that is a bigger question, and right now, the signs are that we are not getting that bounce in interest rates. so what does that mean for the fed if they have less room to cut or say, we won't go as fast as previously we were planning on? ae: but we have seen deepening of the curve in the last couple weeks. that picks up as the financial condition line comes down. at the very end when joe zoomed on that, you can see a change there. is that maybe good news? is nice, a bit of a

backup, as you can see. but on that chart it is more of a blitz. if we have seven rate hikes in month forecast, and now we only have three, maybe we have another half a hike into that. needle in to move the terms of available fed stimulus. we have heard more and more people talk about inflation, and the one measure the fed is not looking at closely, a lot of measures do. -- if you like rising inflation. when you look at the whole picture, what do you see? matt: the cpi is telling us that inflation is high and accelerating above the fed's target, but the preferred measure, the blue line at the bottom, that is below their target and trending lower.

which one do they pay attention to? the interesting thing is, inflation expectation, the purple line, that they really care about, that is the moving down with their preferred measure. not been paying much attention to it. matt: it is up at 2.8%, the thef we actually buy, inflation american consumers feel. and this is heavily influenced by housing, and to a lesser extent, health care costs. it doesn't seem to have much impact on inflation expectations. causing the fed to question how real that really is. joe: bloomberg's matt basel are, thank you very much. scarlet: largest growth since 2014, but chart on how they continue to ramp up production. ♪

scarlet: microsoft buying back shares, up to $40 million worth, boosting dividends up to -- again, returning capital to shareholders. it will repurchase up to 40 billion dollars of its own stock, boosting its quarterly dividends. buyback by the december 31, the end of calendar year 2016. presumably, the stock is rising in after hours. joe: it is, about 1.1%. scarlet: microsoft returning some cash to shareholders. i want to look at how oil has been stuck in this mid-$40 range for the last four to six weeks. we have the opec meeting coming

up next week. we know cartel members continue to ramp up production. what is interesting here, they iraq isn boosting -- the blue line here, more than say, iran, or saudi arabia. conventional wisdom. many people have been focusing mainly on iran and saudi arabia. but our bloomberg oil strategist supply,q is adding more when in fact, saudi arabia may seem to be generating the headlines, that is not the case. nevertheless, a lot of oil. a glut of oil, that needs it six months or longer to clear. matt: the rate of change i think, for iran -- scarlet: better than absolute value. the boj decision, this is

bloomberg. ♪

mark: i am mark crumpton, let's get the first were news. president obama made his final speech to the u.n. general assembly today. the president said, the world faces a choice between more cooperation or more division. president obama: i want to suggest to you today that we must go forward and not backward. i believe that as imperfect as they are, the principles of open markets and accountable governments, of democracy and human rights and international law, that we have forged, remain the premise foundation for human progress in this century.

mark: the president also said there is a growing contest between liberalism and authoritarianism. untilust weeks meeting election day, hillary clinton's campaign is launching a tv ad blitz. nearly 90% of all ad spending between today and election day comes from her team. that is according to an nbc news analysis. clinton's team will spend more than $143 million on tv ads. that is compared to nearly $7 million for donald trump's campaign. prime minister tony blair says he is closing some of his business ventures to focus on charity work. forr has been criticized amassing a fortune since stepping down as prime minister in 2007. blair says he continues to do work as a consultant. $200s cost more than million to battle a wildfire burning for nearly two months on california's scenic big sur coast. that makes it the most expensive to fight in u.s. history.

that number does not include the actual damage done to homes and other structures. the blaze is only 67% contained. news 24 hours a day, powered by more than what he hundred journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. joe, back to you. of: let's get a recap today's market action for the second day in a row, a real calm before the storm feel to it. there, see right basically flat on the day. nasdaq up, most of the three major indexes flat on the day. essentially the same thing on the yield front, not much action in government bonds ahead of the bank of japan and fed tomorrow. matt: we also have breaking news just moments ago. microsoft going to buy back shares worth up to $40 billion. this is the announcement, more

important when a company follows through. a lot of times companies announce big buybacks and do not completely finish them. a does have to pay back the dividends it announces, and increasing orderly dividends to $.39 from $.36. scarlet: you can see fedex shares rising as they beat analysts' estimates. -- $2.79nsus was to 79 a share. looking ahead to the four-year forecasts, fedex gave a forecast estimatesd analysts' , after it included the at&t acquisition. bank of japan moment of truth, set to release a decision in a few hours. investors anxiously awaiting the next step in his monetary stimulus program. on the shortlist to

head up the bank of japan, takatoshi ito, a former economic adviser to shinzo abe. he is teaching as a professor at columbia university. show.e back to the there is so much hype about the bank of japan decision, one of the most hyped boj decisions from a media perspective in a long time. lots of focus in particular on the perceived effort of bank of japan to stephen the curve, go into deeper rates. something we have seen over the last several weeks out in japan. what do you expect to see tonight with the decision, and what do you make of this particular approach? takatoshi: most important thing tonight is their comprehensive assessment. this is the review, but how they are doing, and they see themselves, what they have

achieved, and so on. this assessment was prompted by fax that they missed, but target of 2%, which they said in two years, that now is 3.5 years. they have to explain why they missed it, and how they will try to do it. is, how they part view themselves, what they can and cannot. steeper we have seen a curve in japan, germany, and the u.s., as well as is that something they want, did they try to engineer that? takatoshi: what happened in january when they announced the 0.1% negative interest rate, the yield curve shifted down. but the long and went down more than the base, so it flattened. as a result, most of the banks complained because it is a

broken margin. is, no,y tried to do no, no, this flattening is not our intention. they tried to make it steeper. commercial banks complained it would dissipate. joe: i have that chart in my terminal. showing what happened to the nikkei banks index. you can see banks did not like this. the policy has been unpopular with older people in japan, of which there are very many come obviously. yesterday we were talking to a hedge fund manager who said, i do not know what would be good news. he thinks the bank of japan is really in the end game here, or done with, as far as tools. do you disagree? takatoshi: that is what this comprehensive assessment will address. i do not think this is the end of the road. i think there are plenty of instruments they can employ,

deepening the interest rate is one for them. qe, not tocrease the decrease, but to increase. they can broaden the assets they are buying. insuranceey saw the -- instruments. matt: don't they want to increase, and steeped in the curve? takatoshi: you can play with the mid-thirties. scarlet: we have heard about reasons tovestments, because when it comes to monetary policy. how mindful is the bank of japan over external factors? how long would they give waiting for something like brexit, the upcoming election, china, in deciding how to proceed? takatoshi: it is very important, especially the oil price part,

for the price development. also, the exchange rate development due to those events are very important. -- yes, theythink will say part of the reason they could not achieve 2% was external developments. but what's different for the federal reserve in japan, they want to raise interest rates, and are looking for timing. bank of japan is still expanding the qe, so it is not so quick on the brexit, or the presidential election for impact. the bankmentioned that of japan is not the end of the line. but then you mentioned specific things you could do, just deeper into negative rates, potentially

more qe, which you are using on qe would represent a perceived reversal. it feels like the market, these are not working or doing anything. ift would be the reaction suddenly we do not get any further inflation? if bank of japan says we will do more of the same? an increasehere was of listed equities. i think there are ways that they can trade to make market investors feel better. joe: thank you very much, takatoshi ito, columbia professor, and former shinzo abe advisor. cannot wait for tonight until that boj decision. scarlet: it will be intriguing. on the upcoming election, and on president did an unprecedented campaign

blitz for hillary clinton. ♪

scarlet: "what'd you miss?" president obama not about to ride quietly into the sunset. he is diving head first into the 2016 election, launching a campaign blitz for hillary clinton that has not been seen in the modern era. here is the president making the case for clinton and his legacy in a recent speech at the congressional black caucus foundation. president obama: there is no such thing as a vote that does not matter. it all matters. after we have achieved historic turnout in 2008 and 2012, especially in the african-american community, i would consider it a personal insult, an insult to my legacy, if this community does not --

lets down its guard and failed to activate itself in this election. go vote. scarlet: here to talk about the politics bloomberg reporter. my first question to you, is whether the hillary campaign wanted obama involved, until she started to see her lead over donald trump diminish a bit? >> they absolutely did. hillary decided right from the start that she was going to run in part on president obama's legacy. she embraced what he did, and she talked about protecting what he has done and building on it. that was one of the big contrast to try to make to bernie sanders , to go in a different direction. yes, hillary clinton does want president obama to help her on the campaign trail in the final few weeks. his approval rating keeps going up. whereas, hers is much lower.

i think hei think he is one of t assets right now, politically. joe: this is not an unprecedented situation, and what you have someone running -- after twors terms of an incumbent president, that incumbent president wanting to see a successor of the same party. but obviously, trump was a birther, obama's main antagonist for years. so it really seems like this is personal to him on a level that likeot have been personal, say, bill clinton wanting to get al gore reelected. -- elected. reasons hee two main is so passionate about defeating donald trump. one is, he has made clear in speeches, he thinks donald trump is manifestly unqualified to be president. he has said things like, he , he hado be president thought mitt romney or john mccain was qualified.

and they want respect for people regardless of race, or ethnicity. that is important to president obama, as the first black president. he views trump in a very different category of people. wants a democratic successor to protect his legacy. joe: is this a campaign by the president against donald trump, or is he truly campaigning pro-hillary clinton? the memo that suggested the clinton campaign should use his orerness in that race, clinton staffer suggesting republicans jump on obama's drug use, none of these things in dear to hillary clinton to president obama when he was first elected. do they get along now? >> that is certainly true at the

time. the 2008 battle between them got very ugly. there were all sorts of memos and insinuations. but since the election, things have changed are medically. i believe that president obama and hillary clinton are now actually close. i do not think it is simply professional, i think they genuinely have mutual respect and admiration. hillary clinton and her campaign are doing a good job attacking donald trump. negatives, higher than hers in most polls. but they need to make a positive case for her. ,he needs character witnesses for those that do not trust her. that is why she brings out elizabeth warren and bernie sanders, and the first lady, who has skyrocketing approval numbers. much more popular than she is, to be a character witness for her. i think the president will make it positive case for hillary clinton. matt: and former president

george herbert walker bush is going to vote for hillary. >> there was a report about that, it is not confirmed. he became second hand, there is chatter today about george potentiallyer bush telling people privately that he plans to vote for hillary clinton. joe: all right, bloomberg politics, thank you for joining us. scarlet: and, thoughts on brexit and why europe is taking on apple. ♪

scarlet: ireland's richest man,

denis o'brien, says apple is being picked on by europe, back taxes inid $14 billion to ireland. we sat down exclusively and talked about how his company is doing. >> we bought a business in ofanta, in the whole area network design, particularly in the fiber area. that is an interesting business and we see opportunities in the u.s. to expand our industrial services business, which is separate completely. >> what about the ipo you are planning on doing? put that off, by about 18 months. how does that stand now? >> we look upon it opportunistically. we never had to do the ipo, we were very fortunate we never had to go in sell shares in the market. changes, we would probably look to doing and ipo again. but it is not imminent because the market is too unstable.

>> i am wondering about the value of net worth, the wireless spectrum. a lot of spectrums not sure what to do with this. what is the value? >> in our market, it is everything. we can roll out in nearly every market because we have the capacity to do that. we would probably do it on a gradual basis. but having the spectrum in the drawer to use is very important strategically. you said you were not too interested in investing in europe. i have to ask you what you make of the geopolitical developments in europe? brexit, the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment, where does it all and? >> europe is in a dangerous place at the moment, brussels is out of control in terms of federalism agenda.

i think smaller countries are also concerned about giving up a lot of the decision-making to brussels. also, i think the handling, i have a lot of sympathy for immigrants coming to europe, but the handling of the immigrant influx is a fiasco. europe is not an great place. light, weis a shining made a fantastic recovery from the banking crisis that we have had. and despite brexit, i think it really puts attention back on ireland is a great place to invest because it is the only english-speaking country in europe with a highly trained workforce and proper governments and roads. >> i know you were against the basically,g, you say perhaps they are over scrutinizing certain regulations. but they were in 33 countries, a lot of them frontier countries.

is it preferable to an ad hoc arrangement? in countries where there are a lot of regulations, paying huge amount of taxes. and we do not mind doing that because poor countries if you invest there, they should tax you. apple, applef played by the rules, and the revenue commission are separate to any government, there a separate agency, independent. there was no special arrangement, it was apple just going by the rules that were set their. they employ 6000 people in cork. a good long-term investor in orange. but they pick on them because they are one of the biggest and most valuable companies in the world. and they said, we are going to try something here. too not believe it is going succeed. i think she should spend her time elsewhere, in terms of what she is doing in our day-to-day basis.

>> there is a business forum tomorrow. -- where are you looking to break through next? be in interesting country, subject to the opening opportunities both on acquisitions for our business. africa probably is not probably on our radar at all because we see so much opportunity bringing fiber to our customers in the caribbean, we think there is more to invest in each country, rather than going into new territories. so we're excited about that. that was our exclusive interview with denis o'brien. you'll want to tune in tomorrow, 12:30 eastern time, when we talk appletalk about the eu's ruling. but to be honest, it is all

about the fed ruling tomorrow. scarlet: what you need to know for tomorrow's trading. ♪

scarlet: u.s. stocks close higher, in terms of data, not too much of a change. we did open higher and lost some momentum. but with everyone's focus, we are focused on what is happening tomorrow. don't miss this, the boj decision tonight. we will have the outcome of the company has a policy review, no changes to the qe. 1:00 a.m.. matt: i will also be looking at mylan's ceo, forever's -- oversight committee, price -- four --r epipen for epipens. we will have full coverage,

a special report at 1:00 p.m. new york time. you won't want to miss this. scarlet: and janet yellen live at 2:30. thank you for watching. ♪

mark: i am mark halperin. and i'm john heilemann. with all due respect to donald trump, we know what type of candy he is not giving out at halloween. ♪ john: on our show tonight, new details emerging about ahmad khan rahami, the man suspected of setting off homemade explosive in new jersey and new york this weekend, i