tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg September 24, 2016 8:00am-9:01am EDT
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thatming up, the stories shaped the region business around the world. central banks in tokyo and washington are in the spotlight and on the spot. >> i don't think it's a pledge from janet yellen anymore. > paper with r enjoying this environment but is the sustainable over the long term? >> no. speak franklyate about their opportunities. all report says it's terrible. we are cautiously optimistic. >> i believe the potential is 10
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times what it is now. -- underfargo under fire and samsung under pleasure and the transpacific partnership under a microscope. >> tpp is not the answer. onglobal trade will go whether we participate or not and it's up to the united states to lead. >> it's all straight ahead on bloomberg best. hello and welcome, this is " bloomberg best." angie: the week began with a jolt as the u.s. government and launch officials investigated weekend bombings in new york and new jersey. an arrest on monday answered some questions and raised others. a man identified as a suspect
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in planting bombs in manhattan and new jersey was captured today following a shootout with police. the attack is terror back on the front burner for the presidential campaign. live shots of donald trump in fort myers, florida. the bombings seem to play into his rhetoric on closing down borders and take -- and kicking muslims out of the country. do we presume he will use this for the next two or three days and can drop honorees -- other issues like economic policy? >> i think so, i think this will be the single most important thing they will talk about for the next few days. who canes about crackdown the most and dropped the most bombs and who can offer the most aggressive and fierce response then donald trump will have a leg up but if it's about can have the most measured response and who has the
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experience and background to not overreach, then hillary clinton has a leg up. on wells fargo, the ceo just finished taking questioned the senate banking committee moments ago. was struggling to outrage in congress after the banks employees openly authorized accounts for its customers that the customers in many cases did not know about or did not want. what was it like a mat room? all the hearings i have attended, that was the most merciless be down of a hearing i can imagine. stumpf no quarter and turned him into a piñata. he rejected the accusation that this was a scam and that it was widespread and systemic. he said it only affected 1% of
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the wells fargo hundred 68,000 employees. not really go very far with the senators of cap coming back to the fact that it was 5000 300 employees have been fired and 2 million accounts. a was across the country with concentration in california and arizona and new jersey. senator tester from montana said -- you have done something that has not happened in 10 years in uniting this committee and not in a good way." >> what is your biggest take away? >> there are some on questions. when did this start? in 2011?art is it widespread with other big banks? i hope it is not but it's very in ticket of of many things that have gone on with some of the biggest banks in the country. people just don't trust them. pog hashe focus of the
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shifted. the governor said the base target which they previously faced may now fluctuate in the short term. talk us for the details that have been announced by the people in the room behind you. >> as far as the expansion of the two, we're talking main levers -- negative rates and expansion of the asset purchase program -- they kept policyhings and kept the rate at -10 basis points but the key take away from what they did was the refocusing. their main focus now is on the yield curve. they don't want the yield curve to flatten. the boj set a flat yield curve is better -- is not good for the economy. they said they have given up on the idea of hitting a
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timeframe of 2% inflation and that lost credibility so they are waving the white flag. they are talking that taking enough measures to make sure they overshoot 2% assuming that was once an estimate. that is going to undermine credibility around the boj. a day of mixed signals and disappointment but they had not test they have not taken steps. it's more of a pat on the back for themselves. erik schatzker is standing by. erik: no change in interest rates, no change, but a strong suggestion that there will be a quarter-point hike before the end of the year. you can see it in the dots. 14 of 17 fed officials expect to
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end the year with the benchmark rate of at least 50 points for the first time since december of 2014. almost twoing about years. 3 dissented from the majority. they voted to raise interest rates to half a point at the meeting. matt: did you think we got what we expected? for a long time, we have been interpreting all kinds of fed speak in some have moved in one direction and some in another but at the end of the day, one that matters. matt: they each had given a weeks in the past few indicating that's what would happen. previously, we have had speeches where they have not dissented and now this makes a huge difference and it sets us up for expectations in the
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future because part of the committee has said i have been low but now i feel it's time to go and i think it's an important development that we should pay attention to. hedge fund manager leon cooperman is being accused of insider trading by u.s. regulators. the sec is charging that he used his status as one of the largest shareholders to get access to confidential information. sayinggrees with the sec he is not engaged in any unlawful conduct. alleged that mr. cooperman and omega had inside information from company executives inside a company called atlas pipeline parlors -- partners. the charges relate to trades around 2010, and in the summer, and they say the hedge fund that
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information ahead of time that apple is going to sell an asset in july. when that sale happened, the stock jumped about 30 matt: sometimes you just end up with a fine. he said he can settle for less than the gift to charity every year and he says this is about his reputation which is sterling in the industry historically. he is going to fight it all the way. manufacturing pmi is better than expected and services pmi is worse than expected and it's also a fall. we had a forecast of 52.8 and manufacturing was better than expected. we may see some strength in germany. we had some contrasting data over the last couple of weeks. when you look at services
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and manufacturing, we are at a 20 month low. does that tell us we need more stimulus from the ecb? the service sector in germany barely eat at any growth. >> if you are the ecb and started your qe program, march 2015, you have helped it would have a big effect that it has not. the number we had today was skewed lower by germany. the outlook for the germany manufacturing sector is better but taken in the round, you are looking at a number of 52.6 which is the lowest number since ofwas announced in january 215. whethertalked about monetary policy can deliver. dated today that suggests that the eurozone is not reacting the way it once
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last month. annualized, 62 and 4% shanghai house prices on the way up which is more than a bubble. >> it's staggering and you -- and if you look across the board , the statistics board looks at that, 74 saw price rises and that compares 251 in july. if you break it down, some of the other best performers, you have seen policymakers put in place policies to help try to cool the property figures. they are making it harder to more of a d-up posit. -- a deposit. and fourth tier cities has a surplus of apartments and policymakers thereunder pleasure to offload those. prices remained flat if not falling so this conundrum continues and we have heard from the pboc who said they will take
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the bubblingkle property market. allergan is making a purchase. over 670% and the premium is striking at 500%. if all the goals are met, it could be much as 1500% premium. this is a big market. gastrointestinal enterprise but this would build it out to a large opportunity. hepatitis c is cost only in the news. diseaseatty liver that's not caused by alcohol but more on the genetics side. opportunity and a huge cause of liver liver transplants. allegan a setting themselves up and the deal is structured
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right. /3aying1/3 now and 23 later. reports ofheard smartphones in china but don't blame the batteries? >> the batteries used in the samsung note seven on sale in china is a different company than those we use in the worldwide recall. those batteries which we know have overheated were made by an affiliate of samsung but in china, they used a different company. investigationy finds that it does not have anything to do with the battery. crucial win for samsung in the chinese market. they are trying to push ahead
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and make sure they maintain market share over apple. as a precaution, they will recall close to 2000 samsung note 7 in china for presale. shipping shares are surging after its largest shareholder signed off on an emergency loan of $54 million. is this a band-aid solution or have they found the cure to shipping? >> they haven't, this will be a temporary relief for hanjin because they have incurred so much cost from these vessels that have not been returned. fromll help them briefly compiling more debt than they need. it will only be temporary.
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the fundamental issue will be what the court decides and what sort of revival plan the management comes up with. we will only know when they submit that. mirsky is splitting into two. it will split shipping and energy into two separate companies. due toas been suffering low freight rates in a 60% drop in crude oil over the last couple of years. how much of does this unlock? 10%.t's say francine: do you look more at macro environments to suggest the health of the company going forward with this -- or is this an individual company story? butt is a macro story individually tour the energy side. it's about the container market. we are seeing a significant improvement through a wave of consolidation.
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there is a lot of scrapping going on with no new orders. they should have quite a significant lift earnings. oil was declining 1% and the saudi's offered to cut oil output if iran freezes in their output. this is a five day chart of what has happened to oil. is it about the opec meeting or the fed or the dollar or risk on rally? think the oil prices this week benefited from the fed. the department of energy showed that crude oil was softer a second consecutive week but oil caught a break. is next big thing coming up a producer meeting and out jurors and there will be a second one in vienna in november.
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angie: welcome back to bloomberg best. round theleaders world gathered at the united nations general assembly this week and several heads of state took time to speak with us. brazil and turkey are both dealing with political controversy and economic challenges. here are the highlights -- how long is it going to take to close the budget
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deficit? how many years? it has to be years before brazil has a primary surplus. that's true. a took office and inherited deficit. we have established measures to reduce the deficit to 130 billion brazilian reality. we will still have to live with a small deficit. all of that is the result of fiscal policy aimed at lowering inflation. chat and that we will reach the center of inflation target which is 4.5% next year. we also want to create jobs. i confirm what you just stated. it could be two or three years before we totally eliminate the deficit.
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i must say that not too long ago, i got telling research if he has sett the spending suing four years ago, when would've had no deficit now. onk: the support you relied for the impeachment is fragile. the brazilian people themselves are not in love with the idea of austerity. momentumu maintain the with the bold reforms are have announced over the past four months during her term as interim president, the very same reforms domestic business people and foreign investors are counting on to revive the economy? how do you maintain that momentum? >> we are totally changing the business climate in the country. record, there has been a resumption of confidence and trust. we were able to reestablish hope and now we are reestablishing
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trigger an will inflow of more investments. there is some degree of resistance to innovation at times. it depends on the way we communicate in the way we can properly explain the reforms. the brazilian population beginning to understand that reforms are key andessential recovery resume hope and trust in the country. >> earlier today, the central bank cut interest rates. are you happier with the current level of interest rates? bank cutshe central as a steady and careful and balanced. it's not right to make some moves up or down that could
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that couldlence create a tremor in the economy. it will be beneficial to continue this steadily. right now, the new administration of the central bank since they took office, they have carried out cuts and taking into consideration the interest rate policies of the government. i think this is an up and signal especially investors. bankse is that the other will take this signal that the central bank is given that they also heated and opened the way for investors. investment in the country if you raise the interest rate. in a country where there is no
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investments, we cannot talk about development. we can only talk about development in a country where there is investment. we have been pushing this issue but we still have not seen the speed and stability in investments we wish to see. low, investors get credit immediately and start to invest. high,nterest rates are they cannot invest. right now, despite this, our investors are making investments. asay let's look at america an example, europe, japan and accordingly, let's bring interest rates as low as possible. up, we will look at global politics and finance through a different lens of pro and con opinions on the transpacific partnership. plus, co suzy upside of china
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are the central banks working? the fed and the boj are working so will they be effective? >> they are trying hard and there is a limit to what monetary policy can do and they accept that. unfortunately, fiscal policy and other policies have not been there so they have been the only game in town. what we are now seeing particularly in japan is not enough. they will have to do something else. angie: tpp is that a solution? , tpp is not really a trade
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agreement. made a big deal of it being the largest trade agreement with 40% of the global trade but it is not the answer. it is a corporate agreement written by corporations to and thehat big pharma , makes sure is to go to ask regulations to protect the and even the soundness of the economy. agreement to do what they could not do through the election process. angie: that was joseph stiglitz giving me his view of the transpacific trade agreement. michael the week,
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bloomberg and u.s. secretary of commerce and discourage explain the strong support of the tpp. michael bloomberg is the founder majority owner of bloomberg lp, the owner of bloomberg news. we villain eyes global trade. is its technology that's hurting our economy and the only way to work out of that because you cannot stop the is to expand out of that. that's right tpp is important and the commerce department's garden and that's why the exim bank is important which create jobs for americans. david: you wrote powerfully about that recently about tpp and how can that is. why is that so critical? >> if we don't do tpp, these nation countries will sign trade deals with china and we will be left out of that market.
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it is half the people in the world. you cannot not do business in china and if we have our hands tied from lack of contact or treaties, it does not bode well for america. it's easy to stand up there and playing club for everything but the truth is be have it stayed within a world where we cannot stop this and if we are going to be jobs for americans over here, we have to sell our products over there. goode going to have bargains for a customer so we have to be able to try -- trade and buy things overseas. it's a two-way street but the fly in the ointment is technology which will give the spoils to those of the better educations so we have to work in our education system and the more business be due, it can make up for the technological disruption in the job market. >> there are two reasons we have tpp, one is economics, our ability to sell goods around the world is critical.
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market access and the second is strategic it's important that america leads. we have to set the rules of global trade. globe will go on whether we just paid or not.it's up to the united states to lead and we have done a major deal with 11 countries. these are the fastest growing economies in the world. we have to take advantage of this. is it dead? can it be passed? >> i think it's absolutely possible to get done. has been a leader on this and has been working with congress. all of us have been working with various members in the senate and the house about the importance. we have been helping to demonstrated within their districts about the jobs that depend on this. it's not dead. angie: we also spoke with a number of ceos this week on
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bloomberg television rishaad shared a range of perspectives on doing business in the global financial climate. let's start with siemens. there is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. it is affected by the geopolitical tightness in the world. 2017 will be yet another complicated year. you concern -- you continue to be concerned about politics. what exactly do you see? guidancee laid out our for 2016 last year, people asked me what is the single biggest concern about achieving your guidance. is a competition or technology but it's neither. about the geopolitical environment.
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it gives a lot of uncertainty to our customers about investing. if people invest in new manufacturing and don't invest in renewable energies orton health care technology, these are our bookings. i wished i was wrong at that time. now,look back from then to geopolitical uproar has been rising. added to that brexit, how does it impact your business in the uk and your decisions for the future? deal with what the uk people have voted for. we must not jump overboard now and say it is terrible. it is not that we need to know what the milestones are going forward. i don't need a yes or no about
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the brexit. i don't me to do exactly what it is but only need to know is how long will it take to people make certain decisions about something. despite volatility and uncertainty, you think this could turn around with the brexit being an advantage to european markets? it's clear that brexit has fundamentally changed the big picture and political risk and volatility for the moment is on the side of the uk. the risk/reward ratio for europe is improving. we are observing a moment of reallocation of assets which is interesting. it's making continental europe and the eurozone more relevant. 71%re the brexit decision,
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of the gdp of the european union was produced within the eurozone. after brexit, it was 86%. the eurozone is becoming extremely relevant. too many people thought brexit would not happen. we learned that life will go on as before. there is a pool of savings in europe. anybody who wants to touch that should weigh carefully be at options and not weigh the uncertain outcomes of the negotiations. the way the chinese are
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looking at the economy, they don't talk about gdp. they talk about energy consumption like railway capacity and exports. metrics,look at their they are all moving slowly but surely in the right territory. back, the drop that they experienced two or three years ago seems it will reach a floor and therefore we are becoming more cautiously optimistic. will we see your view of china show up in things like copper and iron or in the medium to short-term? >> we need to step back and remember that winter is coming in china. winter, construction reduces.
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the fundamentals of china are moving in the right direction but in the short-term, we would expect a slight slowdown and prices will remain volatile. medium and long term, we can see the price recovery. will beve that copper the first thing to come out of the twilight zone. in the short-term, [indiscernible] cory: will be the first thing to come out of the twilight zone. i suppose india is up? big a contribution as india was this past quarter come i personally believe the potential for us is 10 times but it is now. the market is so enormous. is there something about where oracle is, focused on the cloud and that adoption could happen now? that's exactly it because with cloud technology, you can
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deliver much more quickly and at a much lower price. both of those things are very in india because you can scale fastened they are on a short timeframe. havehief minister wants to things up and going throughout his state in years, not 15 years light plans usually are. for us, we can get everything going in the next year and be delivering to the citizens right away. with cloud technology, it allows you to benefit from massive economies of scale. you can handle the industry from very small farmers in remote villages all the way to some of the largest industrial companies in the world which are based in india. we can cover all of it and scale to full size with the cloud. ♪
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angie: you are watching bloomberg best. reserve andderal the bank of japan may policy decision this week, there is more fodder for debate over the role of central banks. let's review some of the discussion on bloomberg television starting with larry think. -- larry think. erik: we are eight years into the bull market and the fed just held 25 basis points for the fifth consecutive meeting. up in bonds are rallying and the dollar is weaker. what is with this happy picture? >> we are just continuing the same environment in which savers are being harmed, pension funds
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are having serious issues related to their liabilities and the gap between the assets and liabilities which are increasing so the problems are getting more significant. insurance companies are having a difficult time and they have to andack to the insured asking them to pay more so we're seeing a real impact of low interest rates on savers. we are benefiting debtors. my view is this is of the big reasons why we have such anger tothe world, anger related brexit, anger in our physical process because my perspective, as you said, the equity markets are up and i'm sure the real estate market is doing better with lower rates. people with capital are really enjoying this environment. people who are just saving every to help build a mastech for
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retirement or a nest egg enough to buy a house or a nest a for their children's future, they are being harmed. we are seeing a real division. surely the fed sees what you see and understand that you understand. >> i don't think they really understand this. these are believe incredibly smart, articulate bankers who are trying to race tonight the economy. theuld also say they are only bold characters in the economic scheme because we have seen an absence from politicians to reengage in extraordinary fiscal measures to get this going again. it seems like the more the central banks cut the rates are repelled their rates low, there is a bond rally and the price of bonds go up. is this sustainable long-term? >> no. david: that's a simple answer.
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when do we see it turn? i like to think of this type of bond market in terms of price-earnings ratio. stock market indicator, we would be running for cover. i think this tells you there is a speculative element involved in this market which cannot persist. we're at unprecedented historic that we i like to argue are working against human time preference and it cannot go on indefinitely. in my judgment, it's just a matter of time before long-term rates go up. short-term rates are in the control of central banks but the critical interest rate is usually 3-5 years or five years.
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i like to watch the 5-year note as the general view of the marketplace. that is something which cannot stay down at these levels indefinitely. i think it's just a matter of time before it moves. the fact that the boj tweaked at the edges, does that tell us we are witnessing the end of qe infinity? has brought more bonds and assets as a percentage of their economy. japan is almost a giant hedge fund so they have realized that has some limits and having negative interest rates is a burden for some parts of the economy. thanks don't mind if they don't a profit. you are trying to ease and
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create a wealth affected them banks don't land and you have credit contraction and it's self-defeating. they have creating a yield target and they will buy less but other central banks are a bit confused like the fed and continue to ease and therefore we have a contrast banks withe central their limits and doubts like the notand the fed which did hike yesterday and they were trying to be hawkish but in the end, they were not. mark: you say the window is closing. >> the window is closing on the u.s. economy. we don't see the momentum. you don't have many hikes to do before the economy starts slowing. they say the economy will slow this year. maybe the economy is not as strong as some might assume. have lowered their
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forecast in last year you had election risk and that creates volatility. investments would be delayed because of that. people talk about how the japanese economic situation may be the future for central banks. boj each artist new territory and monetary tools that the fed should consider down the road? that exactly the lessons that governor brainard indicated in her speech was that the lessons from japan are lessons that are relevant for the fed today. the u.s. could get in a situation where it has a 2% is struggling to push inflation up and it's struggling to gain credibility with markets and wage and price
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setters and inflation continues year.l sh year after a clear target of 2% and they are fully committed to achieving that. achieving that target could easily mean they follow a policy where there is some modest overshooting. i don't think they should be scared of that. she was framing out the nuances of what they were doing and i was stunned that she said one of the risks is we could cause a recession. can the fed cause a recession? >> of course they can and they have. in some cases inflation was high. is, what policies because that recession and bats but they are quarreling with. some would suggest the new fed is 15% and some say
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higher. doubt in a highly leveraged financial economy that a 25 basis points or 75 basis point increase might just tip-in economy over into recession. you take it is a pleasure and janet yellen that they will raise rates in december? i don't think anything is a pledge from janet yellen anymore. it's confusing. there is hawks and the spirit there all caps a few chickens. -- there are hawks and it does and of course, a few chickens. the stock markets are high-end stable so perhaps we could see one.
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you can sort through all different sorts of events and activities on this chart from shipping lines to nuclear plants to pipelines. thatked out colonial operates the pipeline that burst in alabama. angie: there are about 30,000 functions on the bloomberg and we enjoy showing you our favorites. maybe they will become your favorites, too. peers another function -- qui
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c-go where you can get important context. here's a take it -- a take it >> this think blanket of smoke is known as the haze. , there aredry season massive forest fires to clear land for agriculture. indonesialops including singapore and malaysia. deforestation creates the same amount of greenhouse gases each year as cars, airplanes and other modes of transportation combined. the fires have made indonesia one of the worst global warming offenders. from paper and palm oil plantations that use illegal/important techniques to the times cheaper than any other method of clearing land. of theia produces half
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palm oil up each year which is why the user product is made up of mayonnaise. the good news is globally, the deforestation has slowed by 1/3. a lot of the improvement can be seen. in 2011, indonesia overtook brazil is the number one country forest loss. environmental groups say indonesian is to follow the lead of other countries that have slowed deforestation by strengthening the moratorium on permits. indonesia says it needs financial help. they say will take time and it could take up to a decade to stop the burning the causes the haze. angie: that was one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com along with the latest analysis and business news. that is offer bloomberg best,
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announcer: "big problems, big thinkers" is brought to you by cisco. there has never been a better time to change the world. ♪ terre: we asked some of the best minds in the world from business, government, the arts, and academia, what are the most urgent problems facing humanity, and how do we solve them? the result is "big problems, big thinkers." ♪ >> what is the number one major problem facing mankind? >> i think it is the lack of education. >> politics has been getting dumber and dumber. >> there is a balance of green spirit. >> if we don't have a more sustainable way
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