>> welcome to our special bloomberg's politics coverage of tonight's first residential debate. i'm john heilemann. now,st 30 minutes from donald j. trump and hillary rodham clinton will step on the debate stage for a 90 minute, uninterrupted, tension filled, bathroom break free showdown nbc news's on lester holt. on from arrived early today.

there he is, getting out of a black suv. this evening we are live on bloomberg television. this marks an unprecedented historic blockbuster collaboration with the one and only twitter. are streamingwe right now at this moment. the nfl can do it, we can do it, too. tonight on your mobile devices, the full 90, xbox, minute presidential debate followed by a post game show with a whole bloomberg politics debate. my colleague mark halperin is already there. tonight i'm going to ask a question we ask a lot on our show with all due respect, what does hillary clinton have to do this evening to get the big w?

mark: the tension is so high you could cut it with a doll for. this is the highest pressure night of the entire campaign, the first presidential debate. hillary clinton needs to do three things. she needs to show people her warm and friendly side, she needs to pick her spot to hold all, -- donald trump accountable and she need to try to explain to the american people what she would do to make their lives better if she were president. john: hillary clinton comes into the debate the favorite by far. has extensive experience doing one-on-one debate. she did a bunch of them with president obama and with bernie sanders. beene to say if i had

running her in debate prep, the other thing i would've said if she needs to attack, not in an emotional way, but she needs to put donald trump on the defensive and tried to reveal him for what she believes him to be, which is manifestly unqualified to be president of the united states. try to get him to lose his cool and show people why she believes he is in fact unsuited for the highest office in the land. mark: this is where you and i disagree. i think she should talk about this a, and if she makes knife fight with donald trump, she risks playing on terrain that favors donald trump. i think she needs to elevate herself, picking her spots to take shots at him. john: i agree that she should not get down in the mud and start a knife fight, but i think

she believes she has great advantages when it comes to her knowledge of the world and her knowledge of policy. i think she thinks trawled -- is unstablep and if she puts him on the line enough that she could make him explode, and that would be a big win for hillary clinton. let's turn the question around and ask the same thing about donald trump. what does he have to do to win tonight? presidential, the way he did at that press conference in mexico, the way he did in a town hall meeting with his family at cnn. if he is calm and cool and reserved and gracious, i think he will at least tie the debate, if he just does that one thing. agree with you, that is an important factor. because of the fact that so many americans, so many voters believe he is not knowledgeable enough about the world, in

addition to the temperament question, he needs to show some substantial action and he cannot make lenders. he cannot lose his cool. he's got to keep it together and show us more than just that he can be calm and cool, he needs to show that he is intellectually up to the task of being commander-in-chief. unusual for a vice presidential nominee to come to the presidential debate. normally they skip it. donald trump might come into the room himself, it will be interesting to see if he does it tonight. he needs to go where hillary clinton cannot match him and say i will fundamentally change washington. i will go to washington and

change things. i believe that's one of his strongest messages, and hillary clinton cannot argue that she would change washington as much, it is implausible on the face of it. >> he embodies change in the way hillary clinton embodies the status quo. he has to explain what kind of change she is talking about and reassure people that it would not be destabilizing. the conventional wisdom is that a strong debate performance can help a candidate a lot less than a bad debate performance can potentially hurt that candidate. if you had to choose one issue, which is the one you would say is likely to give hillary clinton the most trouble tonight? there you see hillary clinton arriving at the debate site, both of them prepared now

to get on the stage and less than half an hour. you ask me about donald trump, not clinton. about clinton. mark: i think the biggest issue troublethat she has had answering our questions related to the clinton foundation and her e-mail. she has never doubt with those in a way that put the thing to rest. if it does come up tonight, it will be a real test for her. if she answers the way she has thinknswering recently, i it will be a very bad moment for her and it could be a seminal moment of the event. she has been talking about the e-mail controversy and the foundation for many months now. i do not think she has ever really gotten to the point where she has been able to give a clear, convincing, even sympathetic answer on it and to really put it to rest.

i agree with you, i think it is a place where she is most defensive and awkward and legalistic. there's some question about whether donald trump would benefit by bringing it up or if he should wait and let lester holt bring it up. that is the place where she is the least sure on her feet and could cause her problems, especially in terms of worsening people thinking she is not trustworthy. i'm going to ask you the same question about donald trump, what could be his kryptonite, the single issue that could give him the biggest trouble? mark: our friend from cnn is reporting that hillary clinton plans to fact check donald trump tonight. i think this does go to his potential biggest problem tonight.

if hillary clinton challenges him in a way on an issue where he is not been fully forthcoming , where his position is out of the mainstream, and he doesn't handle it well, i think that could be a very bad moment. that almost never happened in the nomination, rarely did anyone draw blood against him. she has the potential skill to do that. there is obviously a lot of ammunition that hillary clinton has in that area. donald trump has been withordinarily cavalier the truth on a regular basis, up to telling lie after lie. the new york times had a good story about how many lies he told just last week in the paper. the plessis's most likely to lose his composure is over his business record. it's the thing he has the most challenged,en he is he might be most likely to lose

his cool in a way that would benefit and rebound in hillary clinton's favor. mark: i said before it was rare to have mike pence be here. did notclinton spouse attend a single debate. it's being reported now that bill clinton will be in the hall tonight watching his wife debate , sitting with their daughter, chelsea. that is another big figure in the room this evening along with the two candidates. this is our complete pregame and postgame coverage of the debate, the first presidential debate. if you're not already watching us on twitter, follow us at bpolitics. will be back after this very quick break. ♪

>> welcome back to the first preview of the general election debate. murphy, and i'm here with the whole bloomberg's politics team at hofstra university, where the debate is less than 20 minutes away. i'm joined by two of our most intrepid bloomberg journalists. hard at work on the donald trump the every single day. kevin, what in the last few moments is donald trump focused on? how confident is he feeling tonight? >> i spoke with two sources who have been helping him, briefing

him on the debate. they have told me they are not nervous. they are playing it cool. usually they are trying to lower expectations that they are playing it cool as a cucumber. kellyanne conway said she is the babe ruth of presidential debates. they are satisfied. >> lots of talk from the clinton campaign staff that she is ready to fight and she will go on the offensive. what do you think she's thinking in her final moments? >> hillary clinton has been the last few days off the campaign trail, vigorously preparing with her top aides including her campaign chairman, john podesta, and a longtime aide known to be

a combative and pugnacious person, has been playing donald trump in a practice debate sessions. her goal i think will be to not -- not donald trump off his game. we will bet expecting from her. the first time he is on a stage with a woman on equal footing. we have yet to see how he will handle that. it was easy for him to pick his targets before. it's a very different scenario tonight. most importantly, some the things he has said, is he prepared to actually talk policy tonight? >> that is the big. can donald trump avoid a viral

moment that will reverberate across twitter? moments to avoid that that would really harm him enormously. he has been more measured and mild-mannered in the last couple of weeks that i have observed him on the campaign trail. can he stick with that? we don't know. >> all the talk about a subdued, more somber presidential donald trump, are we really going to see that? >> i ask a donald trump source, and they said we are not touching it. think is theu bigger risk on her side? obstaclengle biggest

is honesty and trustworthiness. it has been dogging her throughout the campaign. as many as 60% of americans do not believe she is honest and trustworthy. answersto get straight and avoid a tendency to get nervous and tell half-truths in a way that the voters who see it don't think she is being forthcoming and has something to hide. if she can do that, it will be a big moment for her tonight if she can give a compelling answer to those questions. with donald trump, his temperament will be the biggest issue. many don't believe he has the temperament to sit in that office and make the big decisions. he has to show that he understands the issues and not have a big cap where he is exposed not knowing something. let's talk with mark halperin. who does he have with him now?

ben ginsburg joins us. you've been going to presidential debates since when? >> really since 2000. mark: how does this debate seem different to you since 2000? a substanceo prove bar that neither george w. bush or mitt romney had to surmount. it is doable in a debate like this. it's different because of his personality, it's different because his opponent is the second least liked presidential campaign in history. mark: one of the things you've been involved in is negotiation with the commission, did either side seem to get any advantage for the first debate? >> significantly, there is no

written agreement at this time, for the first time that i can remember. the commission started doing the debates in 1980. mark: why is that significant or interesting? no candidate has committed to all three debates in writing, which they usually do. can you call out a member of the audience? can you ask your opponent a question? and a variety of things of that nature are not written in stone, so there are no rules for this debate. --k: is it possible >> historically the memorandum is between the two campaigns and the commission is never a party. mark: is it a format with question and time dancers for open discussion, does that favor either donald trump or hillary clinton?

>> you think with that much time to answer, the candidate with the more substantial base will do better. you would think that with hillary clinton, but it presents a rare opportunity for donald trump, if he has been studying possum.laying let's go back out to the bloomberg set with megan. the debate countdown continues. coming up, more like pregame coverage here on bloomberg politics. we are live on bloomberg tv and streaming on twitter. when we come right back, we will go back to talking with the guys about what is happening and how people are preparing, when we come right back. ♪

john: welcome back to our pregame show. were also on bloomberg television and on twitter tonight. reporters from around the country and around the world are covering the debate. john, the rumor persists that donald trump will do what he did after the nomination debate when the stakes were a lot lower, come into this room along with senior staff and talk to the media. we've been covering politics since the late 1880's -- 1980's and 1990's. candidates rarely come into the spin room. on some weird level when i heard it today i thought he would

never do that. it gives him the ability if he has a good debate to come in here and do a victory lap and if he has a bad debate, to try to identify the spectacle. john: i agree, within 10 minutes i thought it was inevitable. were talking to his former campaign manager earlier and he said if donald trump can come in, hillary clinton can come in. so much of what the debate is about is controlling the media, controlling the expectations. his ability to come in here gives him something clinton doesn't have. john: hillary clinton's campaign , not just what she's does onstage but through modern technology, twitter, social media, through all the channels

and here comes the trump family. never before has a former president watched his spouse debate in a general election. john: we know the clintons and other.mps know each it's not the first time they have shaken hands, but we did just see that. ivanka trump and chelsea clinton are friendly. they started out thinking let's not make this personal, but both of them have gotten a little personal defending their parents and dealing with the challenges. there is lester holt. the third person on the stage. there's a lot of focus, a

lot of scrutiny will be on lester holt. will face a withering degree of scrutiny unlike anything he's ever seen. mark: there's nothing more high-stakes than this. lester could not be a calm her greatce, but he is under stress. if there's a statement made and he knows it to be false, whether it has an obligation to speak of, i don't think he does. that's the traditional view of things. if you talk to someone like jim lehrer, who has done more presidential debates as a moderator than anyone else. yourself, it about give both sides an opportunity to fact check each other. mark: joining us is a man who tweets a fair amount, and you

love politics. tell us what is different than the conventions in iowa and new hampshire. >> i think the lack of partisanship here. i'm wondering if donald trump is going to articulate. there has been various reporting on the debate prep. what is your sense of where his head is at and what he has done in the final hours to get ready? >> he had a lot of family coming in. four cousins come by? debate.ck he is not nervous. he likes the fight, he likes the spotlight. john: we have an ongoing

discussion about the weight of the world being on hillary clinton's shoulders. donald trump doesn't have the weight of the world on his shoulders. butants to be president, it's always been, if i lose, i will go back to being a rich guy. >> he doesn't need to win, he .ust needs to seem plausible they just needed excuse to vote for him, give them an excuse. mark: explain why the electoral college assumptions have changed over the last couple of weeks about whether he has a plausible and realistic. , it's aemocrats of ohio state that has gone for democrats in the past. if pennsylvania ever started turning in donald trump started

browsing the center part of the state, who knows. iowa,you think ohio, and you take the prospect of winning north carolina and florida, which are tossup states right now. >> how much does clinton's organization in florida give her? you could save you and these he has him for donald trump may give him a point or two. john: donald trump's people realize if they don't win north carolina and florida, there is no other states to get him there. tossups, which still means hillary clinton is the favorite. have a believe there is a huge group of voters that have been disengaged for a

long time and maybe they will come after donald trump, but i agree with you. it's not going to make north carolina competitive. we have the lead for the paper. i just kind of go around and try to collect quotes and figure out tomorrow's story. john: good for us because you have time to come and talk about it. the debate will start in just a couple minutes. the families are in the hall. bill clinton watching his wife today in person for the first time in this presidential campaign circle. bob suggested both sides have played down whether their candidates are nervous. there is no doubt the stakes are huge. being seecast