we are live at bloomberg world headquarters in new york. plus covering stories out of sacramento, washington and saudi arabia. equities find their footing after the first presidential debate. u.s. stocks extending gains after new data shows a surge in consumer confidence. both donald trump and hillary clinton are giving their own spin on their debate performances. we will speak with a professor who has accurately predicted every presidential race since 1984. see if last night's event changes hezbollah. and energy minister says his country and saudi arabia have made no new proposals. this follows the rejection of the plan to freeze output at current levels. close in two hours.

julie hyman joins us with the latest. julie: we see stocks hovering around the highs of the session. it is in the wake of the debate performance last night which many analysts are calling hillary clinton winner. so a little bit of a relief rally since trump is seen as more of an uncertain outcome in this election. the election pricing in hillary clinton as the victor and we see a rally in consumer facing stocks. let's get to some of these consumer stocks. we are watching retailers -- amazon rising to a record. up 2%. target and best buy are a couple of the retail winners. as part of that report, the jobsyors asked about plentiful. our jobs easy to get?

it's about the perceptions of the people being surveyed. take a look at the bloomberg tracking jobs hard to get and jobs easy to get. .ou see a nine-year high u.s. consumers are feeling good about the job market. on the flip side, even though retail generally is up, if you look get grocery stores, we are not seeing the same kind of strength there. bloomberg news colleague riding interesting story, talking about food deflation. we have a measure of food at home, and index that tracks that overou can see the decline the past year. this has been falling for nine straight months, the longest streak of losses going back to 1960. people are paying less at grocery stores and that's not good news for grocery stores even if it is good news for consumers. finally, a quick look at a couple of those foods that we

buy at grocery stores. live cattle and live hogs are notable. cattle falling limit down and hog prices at the lowest going all the way back to october of 2006. part of it has to do with competition, part of it has to do with things like falling energy prices, but the result is you are paying less at the grocery store. interesting stuff -- food inflation. let's check on the bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton in our newsroom. back onllary clinton is the campaign trail, speaking live in raleigh, north carolina. earlier, secretary clinton met briefly with reporters in route and discussed the first presidential debate and commented on donald trump's claim that he was given a terrible microphone during the event. >> what about his stamina? ms. clinton: anyone who

complains about the microphone is not having a good night. mark: house speaker paul ryan was asked to weigh in on last night's presidential debate. ryan: i saw hillary clinton give a polished and well-written defense of the status quo which seven out of 10 americans don't like. i saw donald trump give a spirited voice to those of us who don't like the status quo and i see emerging in front of us the potential for what a unified republican government can get you. mark: speaker ryan added mr. code -- could go toe to tebow with secretary clinton. in cedar rapids, an elaborate system of temporary flood walls successfully protecting thousands of homes and .usinesses from what waters a hastily erected 10 mile system of barriers is largely holding back the cedar river, which is cresting at its second highest level in history. to shimon peres says his condition has

deteriorated. the 93-year-old was hospitalized suffering ao after stroke that lead to bleeding in his brain. he has been sedated and on a respirator during most of his hospitalization. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 100 20 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. now to the presidential debate scorecard. bloomberg crunched the numbers and when it comes to substance, hillary clinton may have got the better of donald trump while 36% more than clinton. when she did speak, she stayed on message, using policy oriented keywords like jobs and military, all of those more frequently than her opponent. joining us for more analysis is ahead of washington policy at renaissance macro research. he most recently served in the

obama administration as secretary for administrative affairs. did last night move the needle for undecided voters? of givehere was a lot and take an undecided voters will have at least two more opportunities to vet out these candidates. usually, the first debate is the one that matters, if it is going to matter in debates, so we will see if debates turn out to be a factor, but i tend to doubt it. theer: let's talk about how market viewed this. until now, it seemed like it was not a lot of clarity on how investors were perceiving both candidates, but there was a tick up in the futures market for the s&p 500. is it a coincidence or was there a reaction to the debate? guest: markets usually involve several factors, so there might be some coincidence. but uncertainty probably came in. we might see markets react but

for the last 12 hours, investors were more suited than not, including the possibility that mr. trump might be president. vonnie: a surprise would be the decision coming down to the single-digit states. a big push in the next six weeks in some of those states. is that what the candidates should do to swing the election? guest: it seems like they should down their likelihood in states like lorna, ohio and pennsylvania to let states that would offer a pretty good haul in the electoral college and then pay attention to states that have become swing states like colorado and new mexico. nevada will be hotly contested for several reasons. oliver: so if last night did not sway any on the fence voters, what is going to? it seems like in our bubble in new york, when you go on social media, there's a very -- there's

a narrative that clinton came out on top last night. there needng more do to be sustained perceptions to get the voters in one direction or another? the reviews that came over last night, but it's just another data point in popular opinion. the we have to find out is correlation between popular sentiment and actual voting outcomes. we will know more about that on november 9 than today, but it is consistent with what we have seen in the polls. the polls have bounced around pretty good bit. it's not indicative of who is knowlly registered, even they might thought. that they are and it is not indicative of who is going to show up and vote. in terms of strategy, did you hear anything from donald trump that differed substantially from typical republican stances? do you feel like the ideology is lacking on both sides in this campaign? guest: neither of them went to

the debate last night and probably will not come to the debates looking to score points on issues. for mr. trump, he'd not fear far off message. he did not explode. that shows a maturation in the candidate and probably an improvement in his overall campaign operation. oliver: you mentioned national security and household economics would shape voters priorities -- for thisctions election. mean that the hot button issues did not take the forefront of the conversation? i don't think issues have been a compelling factor. i think the compelling factor, unfortunately, is going to be turnout. how many people go to the polls and actually vote. fewer poll respondents seem motivated by nuances.

it's true that economic anxiety and foreign affairs rank in the top of all polls, but that is not uncommon in presidential contests. i'm not sure the issues are going to tell us much. i think it is more who is motivated to get out and vote. vonnie: we were speaking of the fed before we came on air and donald trump things janet yellen should not be leading the fed. josh earnest just came out and his assertion that janet yellen is political is preposterous. you think there has been a politicalization of the federal reserve? anyt: i don't think there's doubt that it's a byproduct of divided government and the extruder a policy stance of the u.s. central bank and central banks run the world. we are going on to our ninth year of what they continue to call the ordinary policy. at some point, it's no longer extraordinary. beeng said that, there has a push from the republican hard right to rein in the fed.

i don't believe legislation will be passed but i certainly believe if trump is elected, there will be members of the board who will ask themselves whether or not they would choose to serve as he will likely ask whether they would like to go. intor: what can we read those allegations and what would it mean in a practical sense as far as waiting for higher interest rates? it feel like they have to enact some kind of policy or make some kind of move before the conversation keeps going? made: i think chair yellen a convincing case that they are not motivated by politics one way or another. to the extent the fed comes up in these debates, it is to appeal to base crowds. i don't mean that pejoratively. vonnie: thank you for joining us. ander: coming up, housing the economy. we will hear from robert shiller as the latest home index shows

home prices climbed again in july. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. oliver: i'm oliver run it. -- latest s&p home index home index numbers broke this morning. the cocreator of the index, nobel laureate and professor of robert schiller joined bloomberg earlier today and was asked if there are any surprises in this latest report. robert: not really. it has been in a holding pattern for two years now. the financial crisis caused big drops in home prices and around 2012, they started going up

fast, over 10% a year. now, it's very boring. it's correct for inflation, nothing to get excited about. they are still below their peak back in 2006. does that indicate we still have a way to run? its peakenver is above but denver really never had a boom in the years leading up to 2007. if you correct for inflation, we are way below the peak, but we are getting up at more normal levels and that should boost construction activity. you have to sell them for enough money to make a profit. we are getting there but that markets are still not high. heard something we he's bighis morning, in single-family rental units

and is saying at this point, people do not have great confidence in the value of their house and as a result, they are more likely to rent. robert: the homeownership rate has gone down. i think people are less overenthusiastic about housing. we have data on home price increases. july,ey came out in people are expecting for one , so that is not exciting. maybe you do want to rent. renting is easier and if you are not expecting to make a profit on your own, maybe. heard donald trump attacking the fed for being political. the senses we should have higher rates because we have higher asset prices in the economy. you get higher rates come a

trump presidency, a new set of presidency -- what is that saying for the economy? robert: the immediate question is what it will do to the stock market and housing market. if you raise rates, it makes it harder to borrow and creates competition as investment. at the correlation between housing prices and stock prices has not been reliable at all. rates, it'se because they see signs of strength and offset each other. hand, this has been a time of pathologically low rates and there might be something you need to this kind of experience if you break these low rates and get out of the new normal. that might produce a correction in the stock or housing market.

david: you referred to as the housing price did to the economy overall in 2008. how critical is this rise in housing prices to keeping what growth we have in this economy? robert: if home prices continue to rise and don't surpass their high levels of 2006, that will encourage construction activity and as a source of strength. oliver: that was robert shiller earlier today on bloomberg . vonnie: nike stock has been on a roll for the past few years the 23rd -- 2016 is a different story with shares thinking of a broader market. does it spells trouble for the sporting goods giant? this is bloomberg. ♪

oliver: this is bloomberg markets. i'm oliver and it. like is facing competition from all sides. competitors inl a handful of leisure brands, with nike set to report after the closing bell, let's dig into the sporting goods giant. the first six months of the year were not tied to nike stock as largestell 11% for its first half decline in years. that has not deterred wall street phosphate in the company. not a single one has a whole rating on the stock. in northr is a decline american futures orders with tracks nike goods retailers order several months in advance of delivery. last month marked the worst futures border in north america since 2010. theh america is clearly

laggards for the company while china remains the biggest driver. this may be why nike reiterated its sales forecast for this fiscal year. 706 million last fiscal year. has beencipation rate falling in golf, one of the hardest parts for nike to keep the business going and you also have tiger woods as the stars stayed a little bit. focus also going to be a with the hanjin shipping crisis. investors will be watching that trying to figure out how to global supply chain is affecting nike. into accountoming and it is a stock that has done well when you look at the past couple of years of earnings. this time it is going to be important as these competition factors heat up.

for more on nike, let's retailn our bloomberg reporter. this whole story about nike being under pressure, is it a doessales rate for energy and under armour success story? for years, he does has done much as far as growth or innovation. kind of a lackluster performance. there has been a shift away from technical performance choose to old-school styles and casual wear, which is more of an idea is strength. then you have under armour taking away business on a basketball side of things. adidas has been

competing with them for a long time. have armour and lululemon been on a gentry that has been -- has been pretty visible. nike has been even with this added competition have been able to outperform. north america has always been the last line of defense. investors can always look at north america and say they are growing double digits even with this competition. they are so strong and have so much marketing power. what is happening this year is those competitors as a group whittled away nike where. there was no growth last quarter. what it says about north america will be big for key investors. vonnie: they are very different

companies, market cap wise. the deed is is only two thirds the size of nike and under armour is not even two thirds the size of adidas and they have both taken difficult steps, getting rid of their golf where. is there a potential at nike to slim down some of the things and make some hard decisions? guest: for sure. golf, has gotten out of but the big thing nike is investing in it is the nike brand. the brand has been struggling potentially they get rid of converse at some point. speculating here. why investors are bullish even with some of the struggles, it's

so dominant in the market. that's down from 95. they are still a dominant player and it would not take much for them to regain market share potentially. vonnie: thank you for joining us. oliver: still ahead, the commodities close, the prospect by opecordinated freeze producers wendell. this is bloomberg. -- freeze by opec producers dwindled. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, bloomberg market.

commodity markets are closing in new york. let's look at some of the big movers. cattle futures sliding again today, heading to their sixth drop in seven sessions. august played 15% more cattle than last year. lowesthitting their since 2006. metals, gold declining and rose. withmproving economic data gold futures hanging in there. .ti crude falling once again finishing at 4465. informal opec talks begin in algeria. have a look at the bloomberg.

shows oil producers in the u.s. are attracted to benefit if they can agree. u.s. oil rigs picking up recently. that's putting the u.s. a stronger addition to boost production globally. let's get some more on the meeting and out years. here are some of the opec ministers in their own words. >> demand is looking for a good. , two years ago it was expanding at an annualized of 3 million barrels a day. currently, it is falling at about a million barrels a day, no matter what opec does. most people when they look at the market can understand by the time you get to 2018 and 29

team, we will need lots of opec oil. it's a matter of how quickly we get there. would getpeed or cut us there and the market is rebalancing faster than we think. that iran is the king maker. after saudi arabia being the only when it can really play for production, whatever iran decides, saudi will follow? i think that is right. were optimistic to some extent. the main players involved saudi arabia, russia and iran producing more oil. iran, the sticking point is its share of production ,nd if they stick to that 12.7%

that means quite a bit more. on that front, it looks unlikely . opec has not done anything to constrain production since 2008, so anything here would be new and it's difficult to negotiate the practicalities of negotiating a freeze. there is no quota system in place and most of these oil ministers have never had to negotiate restraints for. if opec gets out of this meeting, that would be a step forward. vonnie: that was the head of commodities resource for r.j.. out the headlines on bloomberg's first word news with mark crumpton in the newsroom. mark: the first presidential debate was the most watched in u.s. history according to

nielsen. the preliminary numbers, 80 point 9 million viewers across 12 channels, the total audience is expected to be higher because nielsen did not count pbs, c-span, idiot -- internet viewers and viewers at parties and restaurants. the carter and reagan debate scored 81 million viewers. donald trump described the first presidential debate as an interesting evening. trump spoke at an event near miami's will of anonymity where the audience was largely cuban-american. trump said "i think we did very ." that's despite many surveys suggesting hillary clinton came out on top. authorities say a disgruntled lawyer had to weapons and more than 2500 rounds of live ammunition when he randomly shot at drivers in a houston, texas

neighborhood. he wounded nine people before he was shot and killed by police. the unidentified man was reportedly wearing military with nazi emblems. in syria, rebel held areas have been hit by dozens of airstrikes in the last few days. some residents are calling the attacks the worst yet in the five year civil war. russia and syria are being blamed. both come -- both countries accuse the u.s. and its allies for the breakdown in the cease-fire. news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. vonnie: back to you. back to politics. donald trump is campaigning in miami while hillary clinton wrapped up remarks in north carolina. on the plane to rally, clinton had this to say to reporters.

clinton: he talks down america every chance he gets. he calls a names, he calls this a third world country, he talks in such dire and dark terms. that is not who america is. we are the best problems in the world and our diversity is our strength. vonnie: joining us from washington is our bloomberg politics reporter. talk to us about how both candidates have treated the aftermath of the debate. are they both done well and they capitalizing on any of the stronger points from last night? andt: donald trump came out initially gave some excuses for why he might have missed some cues during the debate. he said his microphone may have been a bit faulty and suggested lester holt had been giving him unfair questions, which is something he had said yesterday. debate, lester holt

had not done. he's going to florida and rallying in little havana. that is a key state for him. he is moving forward on that. is talking about how she feels she did in the debate and that is positive. she looked very energetic and had a little quip as she walked if you areshe said complaining, you are losing and if you are complaining at the microphone, you are losing. she feels she won that and is certainly capitalizing on it. oliver: when you watch the debate, it seems like trump came out with a lot of energy and went on the offensive and nine clinton rode it out and it seems by the end of the debate, the consensus is she came out on top. can she do that every time or is she going to have to get ready

for a trump this going to go back and watched tape and realize how to do this? very legitimate question. donald trump has said over and over again through good debates and bad ones that he does not like to over prepare and his campaign manager came out and toically said she wants him go harder after hillary clinton and bill clinton's personal life. she did not say we're going to hit the books or do a mock debate or bring in an advisor to play hillary clinton. may bee hillary clinton facing a different trump in debates going forward, that's unlikely to be because he suddenly changes strategy. aese changes can happen little bit and it would be a departure from the debate. thank you for joining us from washington, d.c.. let's bring in american

university history professor, alan lichtman. his keys to the white house has correctly predict the outcome of every u.s. election since the in 1984.ndslide he sees donald trump pulling out a narrow win based on his metrics. this is very interesting. an awesome track record. but he said in the past year or so that this is one of the harder elections to call. at last night changed any of that? guest: it actually has. this is far and away the most difficult election i have looked at and i have been predicting and since 1984, when i was nine. electionat makes this so tough. my prediction system is based on electionevery american going back to 1860 guided by the theory that elections are judgments on the performance of the parties owning the white house.

today, the democrats and i have 13 true false questions. if six of them go against the party in power, democrats, they are predicted losers. exactlyw, they are down six. for the first time in over 30 years, i have hedged my prediction because we have another historical force colliding with it and that's the absolutely precedent shattering nature of the trump candidacy. trump could have overcome some his penchant not to be telling the truth, his birther kind of racist kind of controversy, his demeaning of women, his lack of knowledge, his refusal to release his taxes. instead of resolving any of those issues, he inflamed every one of them in the debate, the's strengthening historical likelihood that he's going to go against patterns that have been held since 1860

and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. he certainly did nothing to move history along and these two contending historical forces explain something that has puzzled all the pundits, why the election to this point has been so close. new kind ofe a candidate or will he eventually of the old style republican policies we have heard throughout the washington years? he guest: proposing anything different ideologically? good question. design new candidate because of his ideology. is ideology is pretty standard, provided you can figure out what his policy is. i defy you to tell me what his policy is. other things are really critical. we have never in modern history seen a candidate with no record

of public service, a record of enriching himself at the expense of others through the trump foundation and trump institute. we've never seen a candidate he seems to make things up as he goes along and whose campaign has established a -- established an orwellian standard of truth. it was ok for him to say lester holt was a democrat when he was speaking out of ignorance. you can say anything you want when you don't know anything. oliver: you've got the keys and you've got the blue, but there remains a lot of subject to be. into talking charisma, the policy change, those words have some subjectivity baked in. so when you see someone that is so extreme, how concerned are it might be a missed first call because there's a lot of subjectivity have to take into account with trump. great question and

that's why for the first time in 30 years i have put a qualifier on my friction. i'm more concerned with getting historical patterns right. when you buy my book, you will there's a lot of subjectivity than you might assume just looking at the question themselves. since've answered them 1860. i was hit with this critique by professional forecasters that in the early 20th century, they came to realize the human word requires some judgment and a latest, hottest thing in forecasting was a combination of cut and dry and i twice keynoted the international forecasting summit after being in the cold for 20 years. vonnie: let me ask you to

forecast what will decide this election. will it be a swing state? guest: i don't think so. except for the disputed election 2000, decided in florida, well outside the error margin, for the last 30 years or so, the popular votes and electoral college votes have fallen in line. tide, as were's a have seen in the last two obama elections. i don't want to dump too much on the pundits, they spend way too much time on the swing states. it is the tide that matters. we've done all the postdebate coverage possible. thank you very much. vonnie: coming up, we look at and unlikely winner from clinton hospira form is. this is bloomberg.

vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm vonnie quinn. oliver: and i'm oliver ran it. theie: time for a look at biggest business stories in the news right now. wells fargo is considering clawback after creating millions of fake account for customers. wall street journal cites an unidentified person. likely to take back some pay from the ceo. they plan to announce the sea -- before the hearing on thursday. a privacy watchdog in germany

has ordered facebook to stop processing data from its chat service. the commissioner for data protection says facebook will delete any data it already has. it says whatsapp with about 35 million users in germany. no comments yet from facebook. at is your bloomberg business flash. whereturn to the markets julie hyman has today's sectors by report. tech is one of the best performing groups today. better than 1%. are helpingmovers empower higher today including first solar. that looks to be tied to the debate performance of hillary clinton. be continuing some of president obama's clean energy initiatives. western digital is rising. and found strong demand

strong execution and pricing. are the best percentage performers but we generally get a lift in technology, not just today but recently. take a look, even though tech is off the high of the past year or so, has been the biggest winner since july post the u.k. vote to exit the eu. the s&p 500 is in blue. put another way, the weighting of technology dominates the s&p 500 like no time since the.com bubble. waiting in the s&p has gone down drop in yields a followed by industrials in pink and consumer discretionary and purple. tech has done well and is more heavily weighted. coming up, the sacrament

of kings are moving to a new home. hear from their owner and take a sneak peek inside the new stadium. this is bloomberg. ♪

oliver: vonnie: this is bloomberg markets. i'm already. i'm vonnie quinn. the sacrament of kings are moving to a new home, but this is in any ordinary stadium. has more than 650 miles of fiber-optic cable and is entirely powered by solar panels on the roof. the push was high-tech stadium formermpioned by the software of pimco and current owner of the kings. cory johnson caught up with him as the final touches were being completed. sacramentbrought the of kings, a gave a personal

guarantee to the nba that i would have a new arena by 2017. of allto the hard work of these people, we will be done one year ahead of. you will see us move in. >> what does the world need to have a good arena? it seems like you are doing bigger things than fast food. the design hasn't changed, so we flipped the notion of an arena on its head. incident you having to check into the arena, the arena checks into you. your phone is the whole arena. andhe time you wake up decide you're going to go to a game, it will tell you how to get there and part. it will point you to the spot and eventually, for our players,

you don't even have to take your phone out. the arena recognizes you as you come in and direct you to your seat and your phone becomes a remote control. hot, youink it is to can adjust it and it will cool you down. cory: there's also rights issues and showing replays on your app. the league has their own association. that and to navigate we were the first to use virtual reality. started building this arena, i had it locked up in virtual reality. we allowed our fans to take their seats and see what the view is going to be like. we have many angles were you can look at replays and we are the where you can play games and make that's, not using money, but getting experience as

rewards and you are able to bet. cory: the city of sacramento is smaller than a lot of other cities but the economics of teams in small towns, small towns like portland and sacramento seem to suggest it is a different business but a very good one. >> it is. let's not forget california has the largest -- the seventh largest economy in the world. are in an area surrounded by farm country. we don't see ourselves as being small. less.pulation is >> how is the business different? >> we don't cater to large operations. adjust the to pricing and size of the suites

based on the kind of market we have over here. over, wehink the team have almost doubled our revenues and business has been doing for the sacramento kings. owner ofhat was the the sacramento kings speaking with cory johnson. you can see more of that story in today's top tech headlines on "bloomberg west." oliver: later tonight, bloomberg television will air a special edition of bloomberg surveillance. join in today at 6 p.m. eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪

it is 3 p.m. in new

york, 12:00 p.m. in san francisco oliver: and 8 p.m. in london. oliver:welcome to bloomberg markets. live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, we will be covering stories in washington, russia, and mexico city. the close of trading, stocks are gaining along with bonds, yields falling for the fifth time in five days, but is a bubble brewing? president is taking a cautious tone, think demand in the u.s. is slowing down. highlights from his exclusive interview coming later this hour. the reviews are in -- global financial markets in the polls point to a win by hillary clinton and last night's debate, but can one date clinch the election? than one hour from the close of trading, julie hyman is here with the latest on the markets. julie: one debate