>> we are moments away from the closing bell. u.s. stocks, shrugging off and the mexican peso meeting the emerging market. [closing bell] scarlett: did dowd joe -- the dow gains, extending its quarterly advance. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" >> we break down all the market moves by asset class. >> nike may be losing its cool, retailers are picking more in demand styles. nike earnings, just minutes away. >> we speak to a former executive at the italian treasury about what's next. we begin with our

market mention. consumer confidence comes in at a nine-year high. much better boost in consumer confidence than people had anticipated. we got past the hump of the presidential debate, which had caused uncertainty. >> that's right. if you take a look at the s&p 500 you can see that it closed up today, led mostly by retailers and technology companies. part of that is the relief rally, part of that is the consumer confidence numbers that you mentioned. we were also talking about banks earlier. rebounding a bit from yesterday. closing up yesterday from where it was yesterday. eating into a bit of the relief rally. we get tooe optimistic, let's take a look at some energy stocks. skew, a look at the that's a one-year high indicating that investors are nervous about energy stocks. getting back to that old

uncertainty. on the government bond front, not much going on there. even in this risk on day, theything kind of on two-year. remember we were like positive yields in germany? that quickly disappeared. we're back to the lowest level in over a month that could keep him into negative territory. it just goes to show that we were so quick to say -- is this the end of the bond market? that story reversed fast. scarlet: so much for the new regime. joe: exactly. the mets -- mexican peso rebounding from a record low, getting relief after the recent tightening up roles between hillary clinton and donald trump pushing it down.

investors judging that trump's odds of winning the election are lower, thus strengthening the peso. to a seven-year low. this was the dollar gaining in value. emergingehind other market currencies and attracting funds. one reason why is that the president's various initiatives surrounding his war with global trading partners, the peso being the worst aging currency in the third quarter. it really shows the extent of the damage. one thing not helping emerging markets, oil prices sliding down pretty hard today. of course there was that meeting happening in algiers. it didn't look like there would be any sort of deal now or imminently.

iran seems to like to be able to produce a lot. on different sides of different perspective, making any kind of plan to reduce output unlikely. look at cold today, not doing very well. down about 1%. scarlet: everything is moving in sync today. scarlet: diving into the bloomberg, you can see the function at the bottom of your screen. looking at japanese banks, the nation's biggest banks, capital needs heaven dragging all need stocks lower around the world. strategyst shift in was specifically a way to support earnings.

people speculated that this be good news for the banks. what you will see is a policy shift hasn't done so much lately. this is the yellow area. andy mitsubishi have to get back -- the banks and mitsubishi have to give back some of the shift. risingeepening curves, rates, all of that seems to be erasing itself. tracy: it has flattened instead of going even. u.s. presidential election is clearly taking a toll on consumer confidence. actually, not really. it's just the opposite, confounding everyone. strong confidence lou up the narrative today. this chart here is the labor differential indicator, taking the gap between people who see jobs is plentiful and those as levelo get, the highest

since the crisis. people see the labor market getting better. all the stories of all the anxiety being caused by the election, totally blown up ivy data. is thete line unemployment rate. flipping this over, it really shows how closely it has chip -- track the job differential in the survey. has kind of stalled out for most of the year. given that the blue line continues to improve, maybe there's more improvement ahead. scarlet: what do you think trump would say? joe: rigged. [laughter] i am looking at the finished 10 year government bond yield. it actually turned negative today. the biggest number of the negative yield club, joining germany and the netherlands. speaking of, we also have the european stability mechanism,

, sellingrescue fund nine-year bonds at a negative yield today. really amazing. we need to let that sink in. people investing in the rescue fund. about thet tells you desperation for yield. joe: that really came back fast. that chase for yield. [laughter] joe: let's get some more insight from our stockmarket importer, all of her my neck. oliver, thank you for coming on. what did you see today? i think i-- oliver: saw a lot of confirmation bias. it seems that clinton bested trump in the long run over the course of a few hours or so. here's the thing, we had been watching this futures, every single debate in both parties

for the past four or five months or whatever. until now there has been little to no indication, as we point out, looking at the correlation between clinton and trump and what's happening in stocks. so, we get this movie yesterday. then the move overnight. the chart here has the clinton trump spread in blue. the gist is that it's really hard, even if you squint. oliver: the first indication that may be markets prefer clinton to some degree. half of 1%, but from the end of the day you read from this what you wanted to. here's the evidence.

, basicallyample size no kind of movement. tracy: what about away from them wider market? what about sector specific things? anything like that? today was mostly green across the board. those are some of the factors. health care is one of the ones they were on yesterday. one group, i think, for totally , but i don'tsons want to downplay that. historically there's more volatility around elections. it makes sense that the market would favorite. it hasshorter run here, been more about the concerns of deutsche bank.

stillin the red, negative. everything else is long behind us at this point. there are definitely some sectors that are poised for more political volatility. i just don't think we have quite seen it yet. in october. could reading through the research, are people saying that there are still gains ahead? so much better than the other sectors because of the fat, juicy yields? oliver: i'm glad you asked. it was a small move, but a somewhat substantial move in the futures. if you look at the likelihood for rate hike, we went from 66% on friday to roughly 49%, 50% today. part of that is the fed fund expectation coming down when the market sells off. that's the perception. either way, there you go.

lower now, post debate. from 49 to 46. friday it was closer to like 56. this is interesting. are you basically looking at a market pricing in less of a chance of a rate hike? in response, that would mean that it's still on to go get the dividend yield that we thought was starting to shift. now those yield stocks are not losing anymore. it shapes up pretty well. what are the chances that heading into the presidential election that those debates themselves start influencing markets more than central banks? what will they be paying the most attention to? there's no expectation for the fed to move before december. it comes before that and i think it totally will. being put right in the spotlight before one debate, we've got a few more and a lot of time.

we have seen it time and time again. people writing off trump and then you saw the poison arrow again. the idea is bringing certainty, which is accurate. there certainly could be more volatility if he gets back to split on the polls or even closer to that. there are other sectors here poised for volatility as well. victory,linton takes a it's in december, that's when it is. there will be a time when that he comes the focus. oliver, i appreciate you joining us. scarlet: stock down more than 12% this year. if nike finishes the year lower it would be the first annual loss since 2008. we will break down the release. this is bloomberg. ♪

i'm mark crumpton. donald trump is on the campaign trail in florida and described the first presidential debate as an "interesting evening." he spoke in little havana. the audience was largely cuban-american. he said "i think we did very well," suggesting that he was the winner in all posted debate polls, despite the surveys suggesting that hillary clinton came out on top. mrs. clinton is also back on the campaign trail with supporters from raleigh, north carolina. excitedy clinton: i'm about what we can do. i will leave it to the fact checkers to go to almost all of

donald trump's claims. there was a lot of work for those fact checkers last night. each of the estates of the 49 patrons killed in orlando at the nightclub massacre will receive $350,000 from donations. have had family members or partners fighting over claims. the officials say that no money will be distributed until the disputes are resolved. heavy rain, 100 mile per hour winds.00 -- the storm destroyed scaffolding that was on top and three people were injured in a parked car that was crushed.

i'm mark. this is bloomberg. breaking news. nike reporting results for the quarter that ended, the fiscal first quarter of 2017. higher than what was anticipated. which was $.56. plus an increase from the same time of last year. when it comes to revenue, that beat estimates, up more than 7.5 -- 7.5%. were looking at $8.14 billion. the futures order is where there is some room for concern. there is a key metric here indicating the amount of shoes that they order several months in advance of delivery. analysts were looking for an increase of 8%. when you go through the different regions, the laggard once again seems to be north america, where futures order

growth was only 1% compared to the estimate of 5%. even china, the top performer, rose less than expected. make sure that people see that it is down, reacting probably to exactly what you're talking about. a miss on the estimates for the futures orders. in terms of which region might have popped estimates, it looks like japan might have been better than anticipated. analysts were looking for something in the neighborhood of 9%. what it comes down to is nike facing a lot of competition. , all ofmour, lululemon these other companies trying to release their products. people not going to nike as a default anymore. the north american market, default so week, chinese growth

and emerging-market growth looking solid. if there is a rising term from under armour and so many others, you might expect it. tracy: maybe they need to make her stores more experiential? so that people go there and play basketball. joe: that's a good idea. we should pitch that to them. tracy: we should pitch that. [laughter] tracy: last night's presidential debate mainly cover prosperity, but tony james said that one missing, retirement savings. recently publishing a book called "rescuing retirement," erik schatzker ask james why this is such an important issue now in the heat of election season. here's part of an exclusive interview. tony: if we wait, it is like so many slow rolling crisis is. -- crises.

much more expensive, much more crisis socially. a lot of old people in 20, 30, 40 years, fewer working people, basel people will be in poverty. erik: the orange line here, this is what they can expect based on what they anticipate for returns over time and the way that that program works. we are talking about replacing it with a 401(k) savings program. that's right, these people rolled it over to guarantee new accounts. the principal amount was guaranteed by the government. they are invested to earn 67% per year. it.'s all part of the other part is that most americans even when they have , so one ofot save

the things they do is read -- repurpose the tax reduction that affluent people get. they use that as a credit to subsidize the contributions from people of low, median income. erik: do you find people on capitol hill receptive to what you are saying? answer is yes.e so, our plan, we've vetted it number of economists, democratic and republican. most of the council of economic have given a thumbs up. talking to various congressmen and senators of both parties and they've been giving a good reception on the substance of it. issuenow that it is a key to a lot of voters.

concerneduarters are about it, the politicians will listen eventually. the plan, for the democrats, they love the idea of helping all of these people who are otherwise at real risk of poverty. for the republicans they like the idea of not part of the government. the government can't get at them. personally invested, personal newonsibility, with no taxes. so, there is something in there. it is a kind of trick to find a way to satisfy both camps. but i think we've done it. the key to his starting now doing it gradually over time. huge taxes, huge deficits for a lot of poverty. there is no good answer if you wait. joe: that was our exclusive

interview with the blackstone president. scarlet: coming up tonight, we will be sitting down with julian robertson. this is a special on bloomberg television. you won't want to miss that. their of nike, extending losses. futures orders missed estimates. analysts were looking for a gain of 8%. those futures orders rising just 1%. "bloomberg." ♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. "what'd you miss?"

dollar -- have a deep deep dive on saudi stocks? tracy: i do. every single stock in the index was down today. that's basically on pessimism around the opec production freeze. we also had news out of saudi arabia saying that they were cutting civil servant pay as well as bonuses for government officials. that is all from the fallout from lower oil prices. how often do you see that? scarlet: zero gainers. tracy: the worst-performing stock today. of -- not speaking of anything, i'm looking at the percentage of people here in the survey that reported they intended to buy a washing machine. hitting its highest level since the crisis. they intend to buy a washing

machine in the next six months. this is a big deal for a couple of reasons. house, durablea goods, that's a sign of people having money. it's a kind of big money allocation. i wonder if it has to do with more millennials having kids. once you have kids, you can go to the laundromat as easily, it becomes difficult. you need to be able to do your laundry at home. this is a clear sign of cyclical and secular trends. no evidence to support that. i have a feeling that this is a big deal. scarlet: i wonder what this would look like if you overlay housing starts and first-time purchases. joe: i will play around with that in bring it back. scarlet: joe's. that everything is correlated. coming up, what is next for italy's economy? we speak with the former chief economist of the italian treasury.

this is bloomberg. ♪

i'mer: i'm mark -- mark: mark crumpton. the recent attacks in new york and minnesota underscore that homegrown violence is a -- as much a threat to the u.s. as those they come from terrorists. j johnson told congress that airstrikes and special operations against islamic states have killed many of the terrorist leaders, but groups still remain a threat. also on capitol hill, senate democrats blocked a bill that would keep the government from shutting down at midnight on friday. the vote was 55 to 45. 60 votes were needed for the

bill to advance. it includes money to help fight zika. wouldn't let it go through because funding to fix the water crisis in flint, michigan was not included. more california residents have been ordered from their homes as a growing wildfire threatened the remote communities in the santa cruz mountains. the blaze in the area 30 miles south of san jose destroyed one home and charred 1.5 square miles of brush and timber. u.s. is providing another $364 million in humanitarian aid to syria. they have given $6 million in assistance to the arab country since the war started in 2011. refugeen have fled as -- refugees to nearby companies -- countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is

"bloomberg -- this is bloomberg. ♪ consumer confidence climbing to a nine-year high in an unexpectedly optimistic view of the u.s. coming by consumers. eight out of 11 groups finished higher, led by tech and consumer discretionary. the losers were the dividend placers for utilities and real estate investment trusts. of course, as we saw today, the rally took off yesterday after the debate. after the perception that hillary clinton was winning the debate, let's talk real quickly about nike. shares sliding after hours, beating on earnings as futures orders earnings in the future were not as good as expected, particularly in north america. which is ominous given the status of the brand in the wake

of the competition from under armour. you can see the stock sliding pretty solidly. this was basically its first down year in eight years. scarlet: it was such a big stock market darling for so many years. joe: absolutely. "what'd you miss?" for italy. time they are set for a referendum on constitutional changes in italy. will the vote to seal that political -- with more on the low to seal that fate, let's bring in former economist and visiting professor lorenzo codogno . --lorenzo codogno. so, why is this referendum so crucial? why is it such a big deal that he said he would step down if italy doesn't vote in the affirmative on december 4? think hewell, i invested a lot of political capital in this reform. it took 2.5 years to go through

parliament. to approve the final proposal, to prepare the proposal for referendum, i think that if he loses, the referendum will be a to problem for his projects reform the country. you have a very toxic combination of political issues. then you have the banking major infusionhe coming to the market next year. you have growth not really taking off as moderate. to say the best. so, the combination is dangerous. if he resigned, what with the impact be on the italian economy? lorenzo: i'm more concerned about the other factors. race remains relatively low for two reasons. first of all, retaining the risk from the immediate election is

risk in a, probably a change of government or the five-star movement in power. prolonged political uncertainty in a crisis is very unlikely as well. in my data scenario, either you have a victory by him in the reform proposal, the best scenario in my view, as it would allow the government to go ahead and do other things, or you have a defeat. in that case it was the midi -- immediate resignation with four scenarios. the first one is that he gets another mandate from the republic, basically changing nothing. the second is that the president would go tolic another member of the same party. the change would be little again.

until there is no longer a majority in the senate. it is a particularly weak spot. we would go for programmed coalition. consensus is losing and is not ready for election. the fourth scenario, basically early elections. compare andarlet: contrast this with the upcoming brexit -- with the brexit vote. lorenzo: i think there are some serum -- some similarities, but also many differences. the similarities are that whenever you ask people yes or no, there is a very strong temptation to go for profits. even members of parliament that were in favor of the reform are now opposing and saying no to because they are

effectively the ones to kick them out. it basically says that the lawmaking activity is responsible in some way. that the referendum has become a very toxic, toxic political game which might -- again, it has nothing to do with the substance. speaking of protest votes, the five-star movement is rising in the polls. i don't think many people know what they are all about. they may have heard those comedians that smashed computers on stage, but how would you describe that movement to people who are not familiar with italian politics? that's a very good

question. i don't know. they are keen to avoid the center-right. it is a protest movement. i think it would be a big problem if they get into power. once they get into power, they simply don't know what to do. that's a big risk. joe: yesterday we spoke with megan green about the vote. let's take a quick listen to what she said. >> the italian referendum is at the forefront of most people's minds. this could be an event a ton of volatility. italy hasn't grown in a long time, i think it could be us ark for a lot of volatility. joe: do you see this as an event that people outside of italy should pay close attention to? absolutely. but again, i tend to believe

that the political risk is relatively small. i think that the previous commentator was certainly right. have the banking issues and economic growth that is in very strong and then you have the referendum. wrong, indeedoes it could be a problem. i tend to believe that for now the situation should not be particularly worrying. there were the past two notable attempts, 1997 and 1993, which failed miserably. what was the lasting referendum from those votes? it's difficult to change the constitution, particularly if you want to change it in a significant way. this one has technical problems but also has to represent the major improvement compared to the current situation with two respects.

first, it makes the lawmaking more efficient, becoming a kind of house for local government. more municipalities and regions. the lower house will become the lawmaking house. this would actually streamline the lawmaking process, making it more efficient and shorter. secondly, i think that if this reform goes through it would prove significant in the relationship between the central government and local government. there might be some problems with the technical reform itself. but there might be ways of fixing it at the later stage. now it's very important to move in the direction of a yes vote. because that is important for italy to move ahead with the reform process. very quickly, what does this mean for eu unity? we have seen the brexit happen,

will this have a similar impact? it is part of the growth process in europe. we have a lot of political events coming true. we had the french elections, the andan elections, the dutch spanish elections. something might actually go wrong. a movement that is anti-europe coming to power in , then youse spaces get into a problem. i think the market referendum in italy has a potential issue because we know the five-star movement is somewhat eurosceptic. there are other parts that are increasingly eurosceptic. i would say that for now, at least, that situation should not change dramatically. ,oe: all right, lorenzo codogno fascinating stuff. thank you very much. lorenzo: thank you. scarlet: coming up, some say the

donald trump to debate -- took the bait last night. this is bloomberg. ♪

tracy: "what'd you miss?" the debate the entire world was watching and waiting for. 89 million viewers tuned in. foughtsidential hopefuls over trade, taxes, e-mails, race, and jobs. : we need newnton jobs, good jobs, with rising incomes. i want us to invest in you. trump: our jobs are fleeing the country. they are going to mexico, other

countries. look at what china is doing to our country. they are devaluing their currency because they are using our country as a piggy bank. secretary clinton: i have met a lot of the people that you stiffed, donald. that you refused to pay when you finished the work -- when they finished the work that you asked them to do. mr. trump: i take advantage of the laws of the nation. i'm running a company. my obligation is to do well for my company. secretary clinton: we also need to have a tax system that rewards work and not just financial transactions. donald has plan that put forth would be trickle-down economics all over again. in fact, it would be the most extreme version. the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country that we have ever had. i call it trumped up trickle-down. tracy: joining us for more from , the whole to lou

world was watching this debate. what were you watching when it came to engaging in the reaction from presidential candidates? towell, we have a few days wait to see how this bears out in the polls, but the initial reaction, it's very clear, hillary clinton hit the points she wanted to hit. limited.ump was kept she tried to get under his skin and i believe that she was able to do that. it is the reaction we will be looking for in the next couple of days, just to see how donald trump rebounds from this, how he reacts. does he go back on the offensive and continue to attack hillary clinton? we have already seen him stumbling a bit today, questioning things about the former miss universe pageant.

he said that she had gained a massive amount of weight, reverting to some of the it -- referring to some of the attacks that hillary clinton made against him yesterday. it will be interesting to see how they rebound from last night. joe: the conventional wisdom is that he had a pretty good start for the first half hour but by the end he was talking about rosie o'donnell and it was like -- the old trump is back. can he go back and look at the tape of that first 30 minutes and sort of improve on that and say -- ok, i found a tone that worked? can he sustain that? he took the opportunity to try to prosecute her for her long history in the political i and in washington, questioning the results. that's a line that has worked for him. painting himself as a political outsider. that's a line that we can probably expect to hear from him in the future because it was

very useful and helpful to him in the early parts of the debate. he did keep the more presidential or moderate tone. he wasn't quite as upset as he was later on in the debate and was more on message. i think that's the debate he wants to drive home. he was the political outsider that was going to take on washington and change the status quo. he got away from that message and started talking about a lot of different things that were not a part of his campaign's original message. hillary clinton was able to stick to her message. that is why you see a lot of polls showing her as the victor in this one. scarlet: so, he's an unconventional candidate in an unconventional campaign. he showed up in the spin room afterwards, which is a first for a candidate. will he even show up at the other debates? why do we presume that that is an issue? doesn't he want to bounce back? we have seen people like

rudy giuliani saying that he shouldn't get to the next couple of debates unless he gives assurances that the moderator will be more fair. he was asked if he would be at the next debates, the answer was sure. we have a verbal commitment that he will be there. for himit will look bad to not show up after that first showing. it will look like he is dodging away from hillary clinton. i think that we can expect him to paint himself as the courageous and brash brawler, to not shy away from this debate, to show up and do his best to take on hillary clinton in the next debate in the next couple of weeks here. joe: all right, toluse olorunipa , thank you very much. plenty: donald trump had to say last night. are his charges dated? outdated? valid? next, on bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. the hot topic and debate for donald trump last night was china. is he underestimating the new challenges the new president will be facing? more, betty liu. there have been a lot of changes when it comes to china since president obama took office. betty: talking about currency manipulation is so 2008, guys. in a way it is, right? there's no doubt that china and trade with china and jobs being lost their is still a hot topic for american voters. he saw that crop up back in 2008

and in 2012. the thing is, the challenges and china have grown with the aunt of, right? the chinese economy was something like one third of what the u.s. did. it's like two thirds. it's growing and growing. investment money coming out of china. that wasn't a huge phenomenon back in 2008. i don't know if it's a challenge or something that any u.s. would have to be aware of. a third thing to watch out for, more of these chinese companies are going global. not just going to asia, this was clark back of dick

reduction's, alibaba coming to the u.s.. more and more companies are looking to buy companies in the u.s.. it is something that they will have to think about in the next few years. it's much beyond talking about trading currency. how would someone communicate the new set of whenenges created in china it seems that the american populace is stuck with an outdated notion of the country? betty: it's far more complicated. also dealing with a china that i would not say is more aggressive, but on the military front is concerning for the region. the south china sea, the disputes there and how they have

foughtlly, forcefully against the other nations and the ownership of those islands. that's likely to be complicated right from the start, whoever takes office. to answer your question, it's going to be complicated, but it's going to take a lot of diplomatic skills. forget about donald trump, even hillary clinton has found this to be tricky. she has not been welcomed in asia. speaking of outdated perception, china has also lost a lot of manufacturing jobs. that's correct, that's an outdated notion, the chinese have very cheap labor and there is a ton of stuff being transferred there. now all of those jobs are going to bangladesh or vietnam. going to other areas in asia, where the cheap labor is. there are many places in china where the labor isn't so cheap

anymore. that's also an issue that's very outdated. all right. thanks, betty. at 7 p.m.tch betty new york time, 7:00 a.m. hong kong time, for "bloomberg daybreak asia." scarlet: coming up, what you need to know for tomorrow's trading day. a quick note, james cordon will be speaking with us tomorrow at the most influential conference. don't miss that conversation. ♪

scarlet: u.s. stocks rose, consumer confidence jumped. don't this this, durable goods are out before the markets. joe: mario draghi will be talking to the german parliament about monetary policy. tracy: we also have a fed speech

coming up beginning at 10:10 tomorrow morning from janet yellen. scarlet: that does it for "what'd you miss?," thanks for watching.

john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to those who wonder if donald trump is tech savvy. mr. trump: we came up with the internet. cyber warfare. sitting on a bed that weighs 400 pounds. ♪ i have a son, he's so good with these computers. ♪ cyber warfare ♪ mark: we are all