john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to those who wonder if donald trump is tech savvy. mr. trump: we came up with the internet. cyber warfare. sitting on a bed that weighs 400 pounds. ♪ i have a son, he's so good with these computers. ♪ cyber warfare ♪ mark: we are all about zeros and

ones on this episode of "with all due respect." less than 24 hours between donald trump and hillary clinton facing off on the debate stage. and many in the media declared clinton the winner from last night. the democratic nominee took a victory lap in raleigh, north carolina. mrs. clinton: did anybody see that the great last night? -- that debate last night? [cheering] mrs. clinton: oh, yes. one down, two to go. and when i confronted him with the reasons why he would not release his tax returns, i got to the point where i said, maybe he's painting zero --maybe he's paying zero. he says maybe that makes an smart. [boos] if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make the rest of us? mark: donald trump also clinic

victory. that was the main thrust of his talking points when he came into the spin room last night. he and his team are trying to mitigate some of the fallout, for some people call it, making excuses. mr. trump: he didn't ask her about the e-mails at all, about her scandals. he didn't ask her about the benghazi deal. he didn't ask her about a lot of things she should have been asked about. no question. you watch the last four questions, she hit me on birt her, a housing deal that i settled a while ago. they were leaving all of her little goodies out. those questions were not answerable in a positive light. i did not see if my microphone was terrible. i wonder if it was set up that way on purpose. my microphone in the room they

cannot hear me. it was going on and off. which isn't exactly great. i wonder if it was set up that way. it was much lower than hers. i don't want to believe in conspiracy theories of course. and it was crackling. john: oh no, donald trump whenever one to believe in a conspiracy theory. --would never want to believe in a conspiracy theory. this is what hillary clinton had to say about it. >> what about his stamina? mrs. clinton: anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night. john: for another trick donald trump -- another trick donald trump likes to use when he feels he is not being treated fairly, mentioning polls. mr. trump: we have won almost every single call. magazine -- all of them.

we won all of them. john: q1 all of them, especially that cbs poll, which does not exist. they did not do a post debate poll. rest were online surveys. the most credible of the bunch was that cnn-orc survey, which found that 62% of voters said that clinton had a better night. not a good day for donald trump. do you believe at this point it would do him good lyrically to --it that he lost -- admit do him good politically to admit that he lost? mark: he might say that it was my first time debating, i don't like the way the questions went, and i will do better next time. but i do not think so. rush limbaugh said that he won. is brazen and as counterfactual as it was. -- ihink you should tal

think he should tough it through. john: i don't like giving donald trump advice on what to do. we will talk about it more. he plainly lost the debate. there are examples in the past with bush in 2004 and obama in 2012, with the campaign basically did not say "we lost," that he did not have a good night and that we have to do better next time. that helps with better credibility with the media. credibility with the mainstream media is not how donald trump convinces himself politically. --advances himself politically. barack obama had to confront mass panic about his supporters and admit he would do better next time, because democrats were freaking out. trump fans are not freaking out. they saw a different debate. there is any think

soundbite moment from that. there are a lot of moments that will continue to haunt him. but there is no rick perry "oops." as much as there is built up to thinkbate, i just don't he has to turn the page to say "i lost, let's move on." he can just muscle through trump style and hope the polls don't suggest that he lost. john: i think they might though. mark: looking hillary clinton due to capitalize -- what can hillary clinton due to capitalize on this performance from the debate? john: you are right there was not a big moment where trump said a glaring thing. that she is now highlighting those moments in order to keep that narrative going. on the question of his taxes,

where i thought her performance was brilliant, asking hypotheticals, having him not denying the suggestions. that opened the door to that issue. we saw him take debate on many issues and make factual misstatements over the course of the night. she and her team are amplifying those mistakes through the media. mark: at least on social and targeted media. my second favorite haley barbour expression, politics gets better, bad gets worse. she was talking about optimistic and joking with them. and she did that rally -- again she is enjoying the win. not gloating about it, but surfing the success she has last night. it has put her in a good mood. while republicans are not panicking, democrats are super happy. john: we will talk about the

campaigns in the second and how they have framed this. with candidates you can tell when they feel they have won and have judged to have won, they have that look of buoyancy. mp would not be talking about the moderator or the microphone if he had won the debate. it is a window into his psyche. although never explicitly, he's admitting that he lost the debate. mark: confidence matters so much. jesus confident because he's always confident, but she has -- he is confident because he is always confident, but she has a lot more now. john: in the midst of all the spinning in the hofstra university spin room less night, both campaigns have sent surrogates and running mates to flood the airwaves with talking points. let's take a sample of what team trump has been saying last

night. >> donald trump took command of the stage. i think the american people saw his leadership quality. >> i was glad he was polite and a gentleman to her. particularly at the end. >> type of his restraint at the end was absolutely remarkable. >> she was just programmed hillary. >> she was obviously over prepared. that was the trump song. now we will listen to the tune of the clinton chorus, singing very joyfully today. >> i thought hillary clinton was prepared, donald trump was incoherent. >> he came on stage grossly unprepared. he kind of unraveled during the course of the debate. i and he disqualified himself on every level. >> hillary answered questions, and donald avoided them. get really showed her off as prepared to be commander-in-chief. she came ready to talk about

the future, not ready to just insult. >> i don't think donald trump can be president. he does not have the temperament. john: is all matters in some sense. people make fun of spin-me isters, but these matter a lot. how are they handling these cases? mark: technical proficiency and size matters. the clinton campaign is learning from the obama template about how to aggressively get circuits on all forms of media. -- get surrogates on all forms of media. given that the trump team is so much smaller and less experienced and playing a weaker hand, i don't think they did a bad job of creating the impression "the red team says this, the blue team says this." john: they have done a good job preventing panic among supporters.

you can tell talking about candidates, we covered a lot of debates. the clinton campaign was out before the debate was over. they were not only arguing that she won, but you can tell that she believed it. the trump campaign came out much later, and although the tried, in off the record conversations, you can tell that they knew they had been the. they did not have that look in their eyes. mark: the clinton people were barely trying to spin. just hey, what's going on? they were happy to let the candidate speak for herself. the clinton people are fighting readiness. it will be interesting to see not only of trump goes better, but if this operation improve. there are lots of people involved that have never done this before, certainly not at this level. certainly records of how

to talk to reporters, and it matters. mark: think they've had more social media communications then trump has employees. what donald trump has said about a former missing of course is out of this world -- former miss universe is out of this world. ♪

john: one of the sharpest barbs on the debate stage came from hillary clinton. the topic? things donald trump has said about women. in particular she told the story of a 1996 miss universe pageant winner from venezuela, who trump had called "miss housekeeping"

and "miss piggy." trump dug himself in even deeper on fox and friends. mr. trump: i knew that person. she was the worst we ever had. she was the absolute worst. she was impossible. she was the winner. she gained a massive amount of weight. it was a real problem. john: the clinton campaign is trying to make those words a real problem for donald trump. to help a conference hillary clinton get elected. clinton campaign sent out a two minute when video of the beauty queen telling her own story in spanish. mark, this is undeniably ugly. do you think it will have a lasting resonance with voters? mark: i think it will with the media. campaignthe clinton's

sense of timing to bring real people. from campaign brought real people out -- the trump campaign brought real people at to the convention. i think this goes right to the core of the theme of immigrants, from's -- trump's temperament. i don't know how much this will hurt them, but i think this will have some legs. the clinton people will take this on a targeted basis. conway andanne others have acknowledged donald trump has a problem with suburban women. did, by getting on television this morning and fat shaming the swimming -- shaming this woman has destroyed all the work they have tried to do on his behalf. there is no person in this country that will say, you are

the worst because you got fat. mark: you can bet everyone out who has intersected with hillary clinton knows the facts. trump last night was like, where are you getting this information? well, has been in the newspaper. [laughter] the fact that he had no preparation. lashhe reaction was to back out o n her. john: who has done nothing to donald trump! mark: on the basis of the facts, it is just foolish. is fullys woman innocent in this case. it's just absurd. she will be back. mark: he better get a better answer. this is probably one of the times he should apologize. one debate down, three left to go. that will face-off in st. louis october 9. 10 days after the third and

in laspresidential debate i vegas october 19. but the vice presidential debate in farmville virginia a week from today. how was last night's debate going to shape the contours of the two remaining debates and vice presidential debate? john: you remember well after barack obama lost the debate, it amped up the stakes. a a lot of pressure on joe biden and paul ryan, but more on joe biden. that won't be the problem for mike pence. i don't think this will be a snooze. mark: i think there is a bit of pressure on pence. oy-in-chief toe bu a lot of republican constituencies. to me the biggest factor is that

trump needs to win the next debate. that it is a townhall. he has not done enough townhall's let alone this debate. being aggressive in a townhall -- if trump does not prepare to this significantly more extensively, including a 90 minute question with fake questioners, he will be committing malpractice. john: trials on that. -- pause on that. it's one one thing to say you will not do mock debates. we have seen building a set that looks like the site, populating it with people that are not real people to throw questions out of left field. it is just a totally different set of questions. mark: that is how complicated it is. it is a different dimension. saying, iagine trump

know how to talk to real people, i have been doing it my whole life. she will be as will practice for this as she was last night. john: and the stakes are higher for him by a lot. when we come back, republican congress when tom marino to tell us why donald trump had a better night then what we think he did. that is coming up right after this. ♪

mark: local back. w--welcome back. to your joined by -- we are joined by republican congressman tom marino. congressman, thanks for joining us. can you imagine he might have hurt himself with some female voters when his issues with

women were raised? rep. marino: not necessarily. i am sure there are some out there that were turned off by that. donald trump is donald trump. that is why he has the following that he has. it is a populist movement here, men and women, young people from all walks of life. that is why he has won more votes in a primary than anyone else. hillary clinton was the same old hillary clinton. neat,wrap it up nice and but still continue to deny the issues concerning benghazi, denying issues concerning her servers and so on. and how great the country is doing. i found it amazing when she brought on how good and safe the country is.

i can't remember 10-15 years ago, other than 9/11, where we were having the shootings we were having in this country because of renegade islamic extremist terrorism. john: did you have any problems hearing mr. trump last night? john: srep. marino: no i didn't. john: when he complained about having a faulty microphone, maybe having given that on purpose, you had no difficulty discerning the words coming out of his mouth. rep. marino: no. i have excellent hearing. i had the tv on in my office. john: how do you think lester holt did as a moderator? you think he treated mr. trump fairly? rep. marino: absolutely not. he did not take caloric content on on any issues. ontake hillary clinton on any issues. they had a one-liner on her e-mail issues.

then they went back to trump on the tax issues and statements he has made. i am disappointed in holt. i thought he was different than that. but last night he really showed his bias. mark: 20's and donald trump's most -- what do you think donald trump's most likely path is to 26770 votes? rep. marino: pennsylvania. people are sick and tired of being sick and tired of the establishment. why would i endorse and? ask the last rhetorical question. how has it been going with these senators and congressmen? terrorism in the country, unemployment, businesses are leaving. i wanted person that is created tens of thousands of jobs. i don't agree with him all the time, but he says what is on his mind without worrying about being politically correct. john: mark asked you earlier

about female voters. did seems the comment that he made in the past about miss universe, he seemed to go back and talk about her weight again. you understand the importance of suburban women in your state if pennsylvania will be winnable. with you advised mr. trump to talk about this in the way that he does? or do you think that is usually problematic for him if he has to win your state? rep. marino: if he is going to win pennsylvania, i want him to be like he has been doing -- sticking to the issues. telling people in pennsylvania how he's going to improve the quality of their lives and how he is going to create jobs for them. you: just a short answer if would. was donald trump everything you thought he needed to be to win the debates? you think he needs to improve for the next one? rep. marino: i think he needs to be more aggressive. i think he purposely backed off

from that. no, you cannot do that. there is a bias in the fact that clinton is not taken to task on her issues. even if he has to interview excuse me, interrupt the moderator, which he had to do like next. -- do last night. mark: congressman tom marino. we will talk about the debate last night and the electoral college situation right after this. ♪ . .

ms. clinton: i'm excited about where we are in this country. he talks down america every chance he gets.

he calls us names, he calls as a third world country and talks in such dire and dark terms. that's not who america is. we're the best problem solvers in the world. john: our diversity is a strength. john:that was hillary clinton talking to reporters today. we are joined now by a man who helped president obama prepare for a few debates and says hillary clinton has a 100%, i repeat that, 100% chance of winning the white house, a 0% chance of losing the white house. we will now w 100% david plouffe . barack obama lost the first debate in denver and at the time, you the time and subsequently said he lost it but the structure of the race did not change much. there was a lip in the polling the level out. victory, ifdebate a it is a victory, why will it

matter in the outcome of the election? david: number one, we were ahead in that debate. we went on probation. if we lost the second debate, we would have been in deep trouble. the second, i agree with mark. there was no hoops moment, but saying- no opps moment, he was smart enough to not pay taxes and what he said about iraq -- obama, we were bad that night, but it was not much for romney to take out of it. i think those are the two differences between 12 and now. mark: is there a point at which the clinton campaign can say we have determined the american people are not going to find donald trump acceptable? david: it has to continue. the two biggest moments leftthee

the two debates. i think she did a good job today. you've got to control the agenda every day as much as you can. the town hall debate is a much different beast and i don't think it's a natural home game for either one of them. john: you said it was 75% of what mattered. she did well last night and every one agrees. what is the other 25% between now and election day? probably 15% or 20% of the other two debates and the rest is the execution of the campaign. clinton, she made democrats more enthusiastic. first of all, democrats are easily panic and i think she looked strong, she took the fight to him, she talked a lot of progressive issues. and if that's all she did, i would have been pleased. but she did good with moderate swing voters. when campaigns are going poorly, they start to panic and criticize. there have been a host of

criticisms of the campaign. what are the criticisms people are making of the clinton campaign's workings and are they valid in any way? david: i don't think so. i have been through these. you got your valleys and your mountaintops and when you are the valley, it's no fun. saying youw you are that -- that they are not true, but what are people saying about the clinton campaign that it's not doing the right things -- what are those things? david: there are two parts of a campaign -- there's the organizational side and i haven't heard anything about that. the ground operation, are you theoring that in mark day-to-day strategic part of the campaign, obviously they handled the illness and accurately. had they handled that better. generally, they are in a very good place and think they have done super smart about the

states they go to. i think the map narrowed a little bit, so how do you apply resources and time will be important. john: a bloomberg politics poll came out yesterday and with millennials, hillary clinton was at 40%. at 60%.bama was that's a 20% gap. what is she need to do to fix that? can she fix it? david: that's a problem, not just a campaign problem. executing these two debates and figuring out how to get your vote share up and get the turnout is the biggest thing happening. john: but this is millennials in particular. david: things like last night help. they provide more energy to volunteers. there are bunch of 18, 19, 20-year-old who did not vote for barack obama because they were not eligible.

there's also a bunch of millennials that are choosing jobs and they have to peel is off. it is not a crisis, but it is a huge problem. mark: is the clinton campaign thinking that if johnson's vote is high, we need to go after him? david: i could it's having the intelligence on whose and undecided voter and who is soft johnson. historically, those third-party numbers trip down. but a state like colorado, it's going to be healthy. that's the one benefit of it being close, i think about that. john: we are going to map out some of the 2016 battleground states and the map after these words from our sponsor. ♪

mark: we are back with david hillary a man that says clinton has a 100% chance of winning. that means there's no scenario where david -- were donald trump could win. so we thought we would look at these areas republicans are talking about. explain why they are not just him possible but impossible. just implausible, but impossible. democrats concede iowa is probably going to be a trump state. all possible scenarios throw the big three plus iowa. that gets him to 259. with look at the first scenario to get trump to 270, which is

adding in pennsylvania. pennsylvania path, doesn't need to win anything but the big three. you concede trump could win the big three in iowa. david: the two states he's doing best in our iowa and ohio. mark: is it impossible that he wins florida? david: i think it's very unlikely. he's doing better in the public pulling than we ever did and the state has become more demographically friendly, so we went by 2.5 now. mark: can he win north carolina? he can, right question let's put florida aside. tell us why pennsylvania is impossible. david: it is the easter bunny. it doesn't exist.

he's going to walk out of philly and those three suburban counties and she's going to have north of 500,000. there's numerically not enough votes to pick up. has that state become more democratic? david: a trump rate difficult -- rate different candidate, it would be difficult. and like his virginia colorado suburb problem. could you give within two or three, yes, but he cannot get to win it. john: let's look at scenario number two. it begins with the big three plus iowa and then you add and thenew hampshire main second district. that gets you right at 270. -- second district of maine david: i think she's going to win new hampshire quite comfortably.

end of nevada, at the the day, the polls are going to be close, but because of the latino vote their -- latino vote their, i think she's certain to win new hampshire in my view. one of that obama uncomfortably both times. one it by a lot in 2008 uncomfortably in 2012. why is she behind in nevada? david: 100% of the people are going to vote. this is where -- donald trump may be at a ceiling, but he's closer to the feeling that she is. she's going to win more of the undecided viewed and the -- undecided vote any third party vote will collapse little bit. you have the latino and undecided vote. our own polling in nevada was never as rosie as the ultimate election outcome. mark: let's look at three last scenarios.

one involves colorado. no chance there? david: this includes them winning florida. mark: every scenario. what about winning the silver state of wisconsin? david: wisconsin is going to be a clinton state. so as michigan and minnesota. had uniquea strengths they're both times but i just of see it happening. unique strength because of the african-american vote? illinois.was from we do not have to spend much time and money up there. wisconsin was closer because of paul ryan. john: gary johnson is getting a big chunk of that vote. or two polls had a close. if you look at modeling out 100% of the electorate, that maybe

one of johnson is best states, and i don't think he's going to get 12 or 14. voters, whichwing i think she's going to win in a dominating way. you have said that the math has narrowed. take two of these scenarios and go all in. trump could do a week long a store or whatever they choose. david: -- mark: let's assume iowa and ohio are safe. david: i think she's going to the number of. mark: your campaign is little less optimistic. but let's say we get to the last he's got those

very well secured. he could campaign of florida, north carolina and any to that get him over the top. at that point, you are running for governor for four states at the same time. republican allies could come in. david: he does not have much of an organization. mark: i agree, but in the end, you are saying look at the national map and he can get to 270. but what if a guy who's willing to drop a lot of money to say i'm going in for states for three weeks? david: he's a flawed product and as for my confidence comes in. this guy is not going to be elected president. your argument is he's not going to win all four of the state? david: i would much rather be her. if you are watching this

program in washington, d.c., there's a 100 percent chance you can listen to it on 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

is casey huntnow who follows the clinton campaign . trump will be holding a rally in melbourne, florida and tonight. what will the clinton campaign do to capitalize on her strong debate performance? thing thatink the has impressed me most is hillary

clinton's demeanor. she came across as loose and relaxed and as reporters were shouting, she responded, that's not something she typically does. she has not shown and the ease at bantering around in those kind of situations. if she can hang on to that confidence, it will make a difference. mark: and perhaps it will allow her to answer hard questions. that attitude seems to lend inevitableaps to the rough time coming up if she can sustain it. debate did not get into her e-mails terribly much, but where it did, she gave the same as -- the same answer she has even. but the tone was markedly different. if she continues in that way, that's a place they can go. mark: i wonder if you have had a

chance to talk to trump advisors behind the scene and they have notowledged last night is his finest hour -- his finest hour. wanted more of the presidential trump, the trump that went down to mexico and met with the mexican president, not a trump that went on the attack unnecessarily. were expecting hillary clinton to come at him and knock him off his game. they said he was ready for that but clearly he was not. him butorters are with no matter what, they are not going to leave him. they need to find a way to get those moderate republicans, the women to come into his camp and to do that, he has to seem like a less risky choice. hillary clinton keeps calling him basically a scary choice. -- lastwo through the

night, he was erratic -- i think he interrupted her 29 times. he made a bunch of factual errors. this was not their finest hour. they are trying to put a public face on this and use it to their advantage by saying he's a unique candidate. that is what paul ryan said today and calling hillary clinton canned and staged and over practiced and scripted, so they are trying to spin it in their favor, but it is hard to see how that debate performance gets them new supporters. made theid plouffe point that there are various clinton campaign can try to exploit. where does the campaign think they can get mileage out of the mistakes he made given that he

did not have an moment? guest: i think what he had to say about the housing crisis is one, what he had to say but the birther issue to people of color is another. but i think what happened with miss universe is the one thing -- the election being so much about suburban women. deliberately try to get that in at the end. it was clear that it was important for her to do it and the way you have seen them push on that today, they worse price that he went as far as he did defending himself and doubling down and repeating himself. that is something that has staying power. off: she took a lot of time the trail to practice and prepare. do you expect her to have a lot of down days to compare her to

be like trump and out there campaigning with some practice on the side? guest: they do feel like they need her to be out there but it's very important that they with making sure she gets enough rest, frankly. mark: any indication that trump will crack this anymore for the debate that he did last night? tost: the campaign wants him practice more but they admit it's hard to get him to focus on the issues. that's why you see him campaigning because he likes to be on the go. he was shown a videotape of himself from the past debates and primary debates and they showed him where he needed to improve. the answers he gave was perfect, so there was not a lot of room to tell him he could have done something better because he refused to see it. will this be a wake-up call? we did start to see him on the

prompt or more. if this results in a downturn in the polls, i suspect he will take a little more seriously. but if the whole is the same and remains an act and neck, i can't imagine donald trump is going to be a different candidate than he has been for the past 16 months. you have spent a lot of time exploring the psyche of donald trump. do you think his mentions of the microphone and a moderator and excuses, does that not signify acceptancef passive of the notion that he did not perform that well? guest: he may be trying to convince himself he performed well and everyone is out to get am, but he said lester was good moderator and then today he said he lobbed an air questions at him. but this is the same thing he did during the primaries. he would declare himself the

winner and talk about these online polls and at the same time, he's calling out megyn kelly and his opponents saying everyone is being unfair. this is the same thing we have been seeing over and over again. even if he did a wonderful job, he would say there's something wrong because it's part of his narrative. he's running against the establishment and everyone else from the media to the moderator to the microphone to hillary clinton is the establishment. mark: the microphone is the establishment. john: that is a whole new marshall mcluhan like phrase. ♪

mark: there is all of the postdebate coverage you could possibly want on our website, bloomberg politics.com. a special episode of bloomberg surveillance next. what are you looking for? john: hillary clinton goes to new hampshire and will be with bernie sanders to talk about college affordable he. the millennial problem and that is one that toward trying to solve it. i talked to a lot of people who say i don't care who he is for, we will make up our own mind. until tomorrow, sayonara. ♪

tom: this is a special edition primeoomberg surveillance time." we are live from our world headquarters in new york. with me is the traveling michael mckee. good to have you back in new york after the debate last night. as again, to do this kickoff to the summits at bloomberg. mike: we do have the most influential summit coming up and that's going to be an