>> its 3:00 a.m., and your children are safe and asleep. who do you want tweeting?

>> baby, baby, please, i want to make him stay up all night. welcome to the latest edition of the pre-dawn don. donald trump has spent to the day trying to swap out stories of trumps dysfunction and fat-shaming. what is he doing in the middle of the night thinking about the state of his campaign? as is his want, he turned to twitter. he informed us of his insomnia when he tweeted -- trump than either fell asleep or got distracted somehow -- god knows how, because the next thing we know, it was 5:14 a.m. and he started a new round of attack.

five minutes later, another tweet. he spelled judgment wrong but that is not quite the point. but wait, there's more. it gets better. or worse. at 5:30 a.m. came this tweet. >> today machado responded trump'sgram, calling attacks on women frightening. trump this afternoon at a stop in coral spring, florida address clinton addressed the

tweeting spree. mean, honestly, who gets up at 3:00 a.m. to engage in a twitter attack against a former miss universe? i mean really, why does he do things like that? i mean, his latest twitter meltdown is unhinged, even for him. it proves yet again that he is temperamentally unfit to be president and commander in chief. >> trump followed up with a final defensive tweet. donald j. trump, wtf? john: i like the defensive tweet that says for the few people who think this is a mistake on my part. we are asked constantly to

psychoanalyze trump. sometimes it is easy. sometimes it is hard. this is one of those days when you think to yourself, i just can't imagine, i can't fathom what is going on inside that man's head to cause him to do what he did last night or early this morning. it is -- there's no possible, plausible explicable reason. thursday interested advances. there is no way it gets him closer to the white -- there is no interest it advances. there is no way it gets him house.to the white in fact, the embers on the story were starting to cool. he just poured gasoline on the fire by doing this thing. >> i am a member of the late-night lucky trump tweet. out of nowhere comes this tweet, you loser, a typical donald trump tweet. 10:00 on sunday night, this is what this guy is doing and we saw the tweets here. here's the thing we have to start to do because we could go

on and on about how reprehensible this is. we need to overlay of this as this is january 22. what is going to happen if he is starting in the morning with a morning briefing, but he is not capable of reading because he cannot focus and putin says, you are the man, where do we go from here? we have to say this is no longer funny. this man is potentially a president. it is reprehensible and vulgar and shows not only temperamental issues but stupidity. stupidity to have to use that -- we have to use that word. john: it is worth saying. it is also worth noting that this is the first time we have had a presidential nominee invoking a sex tape. there is no sex tape. it is made up. if you are sitting in the trump campaign, he had a bad debate and he made it worse by attacking machado.

you need donald trump to perform better, and year candidate, rather than saying to you, i get it, i lost, how do i get better? donald trump believes he won the believes that somehow doing these things are appropriate, it is furthering his cause. if you were working for him you would think you are doomed. donny: he is setup up to fail. you know he will come at her with all the guns blazing and that will backfire, that is why he did not do it the first time. john: reader teleprompter. donny: ok. -- john: read your teleprompter. donny: ok. he has been telling voters to follow the money. some stories suggest that there is jiggery-pokery going on in the donald trump world.

the foundation has not acquired -- is not permitted to solicit money. and he secretly conducted deals with cuba, which he disputed with the local granite state station nh1. >> i never did business in cuba. this guy who has a bad reputation as a reporter, you see what his record is, he wrote something about me in cuba. i never did anything in cuba. i never did a deal in cuba. judgeo today, a d.c. depositiontes from a decided hiss who racist comments about mexicans caused them to back out of his hotel. john: he keeps getting in the

only way of his -- getting in his own way. there has been so much focus and the clinton foundation and hillary clinton's e-mail, most of it totally appropriate but it is so out of proportion to what we see in the trump foundation, trump university, infinitely more. maybe not infinitely more, but there are just as many if not more instances of obvious corruption and illegality going on on trump's part and we are finally in the place where some good reporters, the reporter that trump trashed at newsweek are trying to focus on trump and those things are making it harder for donald trump to make his argument. donny: trump has two underpinnings of deficiencies. sleaze and hatred. the hatred sticks, the sleaze, we have seen trump university. we have seen the story where he took money out, charitable money and put it in his pocket by paying for legal fees and the hillary thing is a different thing.

the line is nowhere in the same place but somehow, people let that go. he is a businessman, that is what he does. evenly zero taxes, he is smart. the stuff that sticks -- and this is why i think this is good for trump. the disabled reporter, the cons, kahns, the much auto story, this vulgar, disgusting, reprehensible behavior toward the little guy. john: the thing where all trump is taking on private citizens, those are the things that cause him the most political problems they will say, when he says things like that is just business and it is great i did not pay taxes. it does make him seem more like a plutocrat and will not help out with his white, working-class base. what the polling tells us about , the debate and its effect on the presidential race. ♪

donny: this weekend, we have seen a flurry of polls that have shaped perceptions about the race. a cnn poll named hillary clinton as the clear winner of the first presidential debate by more than 30 percentage points, and there are polls out that suggest clinton might be seeing rewards from that debate victory. in new hampshire, clinton is up i seven points among likely voters.

the margin is four points smaller than it was this past month but higher than other polls we have seen in recent weeks. in detroit news, clinton leads by seven points. we are seeing some conflicting polls. where do we see this race right now? john: if you think about these polls, they have been taken since the debate has happened. michigan and new hampshire are states where she is strong and she will likely win. nevada is the state where she has been behind. in florida, it has been that ken -- and neck. -- it has been the end neck. neck and neck. she has seen an uptick. polls have her moved up two or three points strictly because of this debate. she now has the psychological advantage, the confidence from having won the debate and seeing all this empirical evidence moving in the right direction

and see how donald trump's reaction, behaving like a lunatic. donny: the pulse have moved to pointss have moved two and do not take into account the last three days. it was a moment on stage and next day, the real brouhaha has happened and it is not in these polls. we will continue to see this lead widen. when trump is going to feel like he is losing i feel that she thinks you can unwind these things in a matter of a few weeks and there will be more of this nasty step two, that will make it worse. hillary clinton has been vetted for 30 years by republicans. this is the beginning of the end for trump. john you came into that first : debate with a lot of pressure on hillary clinton. the polls were tightening in donald trump's favor. democrats were freaking out, a lot of pressure on hillary clinton because many think if he becomes president it would be the apocalypse. trump unraveled tuesday, wednesday, thursday and this friday morning. he has unraveled, and you are

right. the damage he is doing to ,imself with key constituencies especially college-educated white women who lean republican normally, are looking at this and going, i do not want any part of this. hillary clinton trying to summon her inner jfk. she unveiled a plan to inspire public service the country. it included proposals to expand americorps as well as scholarships for people who go into public service careers. clinton also said she wanted to grow the peace corps and create part-time national service reserve modeled after the armed forces reserve. this clinton: -- ms. clinton: i talk a lot about how america is an exceptional nation. we are not exceptional just because of the size of our military or the size of our economy. we are exceptional because of the generosity and ingenuity of our people.

39 days left. this is the choice. do we lift each other up or tear each other down? john: clinton also called americorps one of her husband's proudest achievements, which echoed a key element of bill clinton's democratic movement in 1992. mr. clinton: you must pay it , from your paycheck, or better yet, by going home and serving your community. think of it. millions of energetic young men and women serving their country by policing the streets, or teaching the children, or caring for the sake, -- the sick or working with the elderly and people with disabilities, helping young people to stay off drugs and out of gangs, giving

us all a sense of new hope and limitless possibilities. that is what this new covenant is all about. john: that was bill clinton and his nomination speech in 1992. you've yearis, hillary clinton clinton playing the national service card. -- you hear hillary clinton playing the national service card. you think this kind of proposal is harking back to her husband's themes, offering something, and that making a call to service will have resonance? see twoe're going to tracks. what is ironic that millennials have not turned on to her -- oldsmobile great campaign. it's not your father's oldsmobile. reality, she is more progressive than her husband or any other democratic platform. the fact that millennials based on free tuition and based on the

global warming issue alone are not rushing out, it is stunning and it is a pure perception thing. this is not your father's candidate. millennials are all about giving back and community. this is a step in the right direction. john: the millennial thing is a challenge for her. we talk about it a lot on the show. things like this, explaining what she wants to do as president, tying it to some themes and aspirations and putting her policies together as a narrative is all good but the biggest problem she has without -- with that group of voters is going to be, this is talking about government in a way that feels like it is old hat, it still feels like status quo. it is not have the revolutionary fervor that bernie sanders had and it will be hard for those voters, to attract those voters who are interested in that kind of message. with this kind of program. a and iefore we go,

say, millennials, three words, -- can i say, millennials, three words, free college tuition. what else do you need to know? seriously, millennials, i you -- are you kidding me? john: we will talk to a donald trump surrogate when we come back. ♪

john: joining us now is a donald trump supporter. and the former lieutenant governor of new york state. great to see you. we were talking about alicia marchado. as a trump supporter and a woman -- >> i have been a woman all my life. john: in what universe do you think it is helpful for donald trump to do what he did this

morning and decide to attack? guest: i understand why his feelings are hurt by this kind of controversy. it seems like an ambush to me. we know donald trump has a campaign manager, a married woman, and for kids, he has offered enormous opportunities to women who work for him and this looks like a dirty trick, a dirty campaign trick. john: he called her miss piggy. >> there is no evidence of that. john: he fat shame to her. he attacked her for being overweight. guest: there is no evidence he called her miss piggy. john: he attacked her again today. try to answer my question. what is the political purpose it serves to attack her again? >> i think he is trying to set the record straight about what happened then which is far less relevant than what is happening now. let me just say in one sentence

what happened then as far as i can see which is that she was a beauty contestant, something mrs. clinton sticks her nose up at, not politically correct anymore, but back then it was. she signed a contract she would weigh a certain amount, as a jockey has to weigh a certain amount or male model who has to fit into a suit of a certain size -- >> john, you know that. >> you look good. very good, in fact. when she no longer fit that description some people want to fire her and he said no, let her work out. let her try to regain the job qualifications. that is as far as i know and i have no intentions of attacking her because like all women, i have battled the bold. -- bulge. my children have had many battles with weight. i have two granddaughters, i am

a household of lots of women and we all get it. donny: the last thing you said was an outright lie. >> all i have heard is what i have been told. she said things from 20 years ago. donny: i want to go to to the last thing i said. that she said. -- you said. i have seen you around and you are a mom. he used the words -- this is a man who is running for president of the united states, this is a latina woman, another person, and he called her disgusting. >> i never heard that. donny: he tweeted that. he referred to her as disgusting. >> now you are attacking me. donny: she said i felt terrible because he fat shamed me.

have you ever used, i have never called a another human being disgusting. that is not a word i use. >> let's put this in a context. we all define context differently. all the viewers, all the voters have a right to know what is going on and we were talking just before the show about where this accusation fits in the debate, that we are reprocessing and reassessing. i was disappointed in the debate. not just because of the issue of ms. machado being raised because i do not like to see women use -- used that way. the purpose of the debate is to inform voters, to shed light on things. that debate did not do that at all, there were no follow-up questions. i will give you an example. ms. clinton goes around the country and at the debate said she is going to make corporations pay their fair share. so why didn't the moderator say well, what is a fair share, let me finish. why didn't the moderator say, what is the fair share of corporations in the u.s., the -- they already pay the highest rates in the world. you are proposing hiking corporate tax rates and the federal reserve has warned us if they are raised it will cause "a substantial decline in wages and

growth." so please explain that. john: the candidates were able to engage each other. donald trump could have raised that point if he wanted to. i want to come back to the thing that happened most recently. you're comfortable with the idea of having a person in the white house who is up at 3:00 a.m. tweeting things about their political opponents. under any circumstances alleging that there is a sex tape involved that does not exist, that no one has been able to find. news organizations have spent a week looking for and not found. you think temperamentally speaking you are comfortable with that? >> i am. john: you think that is ok behavior on the part of a president? >> don't bully me.

john: i am not bullying you. >> i know the answer you would like me to give. i thing donald trump has a lot to offer this nation. ms. clinton is trying to change the debate from a debate over the economy, she does not want to own that because people are earning less than they did in 2007, she does not want to talk about foreign policy because isis is threatening so many parts of the world and she left the state department in a shambles. what are we left with? she wants to redefine -- john: we have a hard break right now. appreciate that point, not really on the point of whether donald trump has the temperament to be president. but thank you for coming. more about donald trump's weekend after this. ♪

♪ donny: welcome back. we are joined by a democratic strategist liz smith who worked as martin o'malley's campaign

strategist. and tim miller, former communications director for jeb bush's campaign. who is your favorite world leader? >> merkel. , i am a woman and he gets extra points for how good-looking he is. let's wind back the clock four days ago after the merchado moment. what was the way to handle it at that point? make it about nothing? he is eating his frostie-o's and they tell him what is going on. make this clear, i

am never walking into that man's bedroom. if i were in the war room or in the boardroom, what would i have told him to do? i would have said, i made some comments i regret 20 years ago. they do not reflect who i am as a person what i am fighting for , in this campaign. theuld have told him to do exact opposite of what he did. the thing about it is his initial comments were very bad, very offensive but his response , has been even worse. and it plays into his biggest weakness, the view that voters have that he is temperamentally unfit to be commander-in-chief. john: there is a time when you were part of the never trump movement, and until this debate, there was a definite consolidation happening. a lot of people who were uncomfortable with trump said we are not comfortable with him but , we do not want hillary

clinton. he was starting to get close to 90% of republican votes. what do you see happening on the basis of the debate and the follow-up to republican levels of support for donald trump? >> i hope we have seen the last of people getting on board who were not on board before with senator cruz. out of the regular rank-and-file republicans i thought that after , the debate he had not lost any of them. he had not had a good night and it wasn't so bad that he lost some of them. his behavior since the debate if we were looking at the college-educated suburban women, this is the group that we have the most success with in the ader trump at campaign -- campaign during the primaries, i bet you would peel off some of them because of his grotesque behavior over the past two days. >> we have also seen motivation like you have seen searches for how to register to vote surge in latino heavy areas. that has been a positive side effect for democrats as well. john: the thing about the

clintons always is having watched them for a long time everything is a cycle with them. when things are going great it , goes great for a while and , then something happens that turns things around, they go off course. what would you be worried about because it is your job to worry about hillary clinton. >> i would be worried that you let the sideshow get in the way of presenting a more affirmative, positive, aspirational message. for instance today, she announced a very bold national service plan and you barely read about it because everyone is talking about donald trump's tweets. what we have seen is she needs to motivate millennials, to motivate latino voters, black voters, and to do that you can , just run as not donald trump. she needs to offer some big, bold ideas. the thing i would worry about is they get back into the cycle of attacking donald trump. get: and that they complacent. >> and complacency too. i think they go hand-in-hand. donny: during every campaign there is a moment in time when

you feel the train leaving the tracks. to me this week has felt that way, that the toothpaste is at -- out of the tube and it is difficult for trump to put it back. do you agree with that thesis? >> i do. honestly i thought the train had left the track after the convention. i was on the show was back then and i said that. , it was not that had a 0% chance to win but it was very bleak. he needed to run a very good campaign until then. he had to consolidate the republican base, juice turnout and keep hillary's turnout down. i think that as liz said, the only big question is do millennials, african-americans, hispanics turnout in the way the they turned out for obama. if they do there is no , mathematical path for trump to be the nominee. that is the big challenge for the clinton campaign and trump , this week has receded a lot of

ground that he gained between the conventions and the first debate. john: apart from being defiantly against your party's nominee, you are otherwise a good republican, staunch conservative. >> true. john: tell me what your assessment is of republican prospects to hold onto the senate. >> it will be interesting to see what polls look like. what we were seeing is during following the ebb con controversy. some senators and their numbers were hemorrhaging support and it was going to be a big problem. as trump certitude narrow i thought that launch as of last week, at the election in last week the republicans keep the , senate. it is a tossup. the battlegrounds are nevada, new hampshire, north carolina, missouri and we , need to take three of those. i think that it is probably a toss up, maybe a slightly to the democrats but i have a lot of

, faith in the good campaigns that are being run by senate republicans. >> it is challenging and this is why. one way that i think trump has hurt democrats down ballot is we have seen on the outside money, all the outside groups being poured into senate races. in ohio alone ted strickland has , had twice as much money spent negativeim in advertising than hillary clinton has nationally. we are seeing the koch brothers go state to state trying to destroy democratic candidates systematically. >> the evil koch brothers? i do not think the evil koch brothers will be a problem. >> we are seeing it in indiana . they think they dispatched strickland in ohio, i do not think that they did and they are , going to indiana to do that. it will be challenging, i'm optimistic. john: liz smith, tim miller, you

are both great. >> let's do this again when me and liz can argue. up, lather reince, , repeat. the interview is next. if you are washin watching us in washington dc, you can listen to us on bloomberg radio 91.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: in the final days of this presidential race two words , could decide the next leader of the free world and those are ground game. i went to vist the national republican committee's

headquarters in our nation's capital to see how they are building their infrastructure in a major battleground state. ♪ john: we are here on capitol hill in front of the republican national committee, always important in presidential election years, but it is important issue because the trump campaign is not financially close to being on par with hillary clinton's campaign. they have had to outsource all of that to the republican national committee. whether that will work or not, who knows. this is like the wall of history. now we have the wall of priebus. , priebus, a lot of priebus. one of the unusual things about this cycle is the trump campaign does not really have a ground game. it has basically outsourced it to you and to your field operations. >> we have been doing this operation in a serious way after we lost in 2012 and realized you

could not have a national party that showed up three months before an election, so we have been on the ground now for three years. from our standpoint, we think that the hillary clinton campaign is playing catch-up to us. this is our narrative that we own and so we take it personally , when people start commenting about you have 24 offices here but why don't you have 32? , we have the biggest ground operation we have ever put together. just on full-time paid staff we are at 1100 paid on the ground but when you add in something , that we call the republican leadership initiative which is a , six-week trained program where we have 6000 people that are working full-time, sometimes they work harder than the paid staff. sorry, guys. john: you're going to start in a mutiny here. everybody is about to quit. >> our team is incredible. we have over 6000 people doing that. we put a huge emphasis on knocking on doors.

the one thing we learned in 2012 is we were centered around phone and the phones are not great. we are much better face-to-face. we're breaking records and we really feel good about where we are at. john: what makes you think that you are superior in your ground game to the clinton game? >> they do not have a bleed through. one thing obama did that we try to replicate is everyone argues about one good example, everyone wants to argue about offices. had 380, and we had 320. the offices are not where the action is. hanging out in an office in making phone calls, they were meeting at starbucks with their neighborhood group, finding people that live there and work there. they wrote their standard and that is what we have been trying to replicate. we think we're bigger. we know we're bigger on the ground. we have been doing it for longer than they have. john: just talk about how much

meshedys are with the trump campaign and how well the court nation is working. >> as we sit here our directors are at trump tower. it is one operation at this point. they are working hand in glove. it is true, we do carry the load when it comes to the ground operation but it is fortunate , that we took this initiative to grow at a time when we had a candidate that was a little bit thin but it is working out. , good morning, guys, saddle up. all right, 47 days left. let's go around with division leaders. >> in florida, we trained 3000 people. >> i was indiana, it brings our total trainings to 470.

>> over 4000 volunteer prospects. >> trainings with hispanics are against. >> >> 210 veteran volunteers. >> we have a table set up to do voter registration. >> 6042 doors. field team is doing well. very proud of them. >> historically and traditionally, there ground operations are in-house. mr. trump campaign manager light and has relied on the rallies. i tell you what they do have, they have an army of volunteers. one of the biggest army of volunteers i have ever seen if not the biggest. our challenge has been to corral all the excitement in the volunteers that flock to all these rallies and train them and then activate them in the field. like right now this is what we have been working towards is the turnout. john: thanks to reince priebus and our friends at the republican national committee.

we talk about how much the ground games really matter this year after a word from our sponsors. ♪

♪ >> the polls happen that night, the night of the debate. showed mr.lls also donald trump winning. >> those are fan polls. >> those are a snapshot of what people are thinking. >> you know those are bogus. i will take the polls that show mr. trump winning big time. >> you can't be a 10 if you are flat chested. there is no equivalent for man. >> everybody has her own opinion on what a 10 is.

has gotten very little credit for how gracious he was at the beginning and end of the debate. he said i was prepared to say some rough stuff but your family is here. it is not nice that you are running hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads against me and that is not nice. >> come on. they are running for president. of course she is going to hit with negative ads. >> the ads that she is running about him use his words. donny: those are some trump surrogates tangling with reporters on tv. we got to see some greatest hits, we have been talking about that all show. i want to shift to what we tease out of the last segment on the ground game. i'm sorry, excuse me. let me shift to you. >> i'm ready. donny: i remembered hearing

david plouffe saying they knew where every vote was. is it fair to say the republicans are at a tremendous deficit despite what reince priebus was saying? >> absolutely. credit goes to the rnc that had to fill in a huge vacuum where they are doing the work that the trump campaign should be doing. they have come in and if they are doing a lot of work but take florida where they are operating at about a fifth the capacity of the clinton campaign. they have about 80 people down there. the clinton campaign has 500. but look at, trump is one point behind in the latest polls of florida. i think it leads to the question, how much does ground game actually matter? because trump is running. he is not really getting crushed. the conclusion that one can draw is that the ground game it is about harvesting supporters that already exist. it is not about finding new supporters who are out there. and trump has a lot of

supporters but the conclusion is , he is not really building, creating new supporters in the campaign. that is what the rest of the campaign is about. i think that it be in that the day that that will be trumps problem. to ask you the question i asked tim miller earlier. the polls were tightening and republicans were consolidating around trump. given his made performance and his performance since the debate what are you hearing and seeing , from republicans about donald trump? >> i spent the day with my colleague talking to a lot of republican strategist, operatives and lawmakers and there is a great deal of concern, mounting anxiety that trump is letting it go. that it wasn't just a rocky debate performance but it is the monday, week now where he has been attacking this latina beauty queen and his erratic behavior including the tweets

, overnight, and the sense that he is not been focused and disciplined and cannot concentrate on the most effective message for him, that he is a change agent and that hillary clinton has bad judgment. we are not hearing about that, so there is a real desire for him to change urgently. they are already voting in iowa. in other states, they will start early voting soon, so that time is precious. john: back after the democratic convention when trump went after the khan family and then it subsided for the last month has the polls tightened as i said. what do you level do you feel what is the level of republican , freak out on this friday evening? >> i think it is about 60% of the khan level. this miss universe contestant is not exactly the unimpeachable

citizen that the khans were. i think it really does show that trump is exhibiting the political instinct, he is the only candidate who could turn a losing 90 minute debate performance into a four-day long national event. that is what is really concerning here. i don't think it is his attacks on the miss universe contestant who is not a model citizen but , it is the horrible political instincts that he has been displaying, and i think it is unlikely that he will have better instincts on display in the next two debate performances which is the concern. ,donny: clearly the two best moments for trump and the two big talking points are hillary, you will be doing this for 30 years and trade. is that the consensus within the republican folks that you're talking to? >> it is. that there are the things that he could be doing.

there is a sense that there were a lot of missed opportunities in that first debate. he never really went after her on the clinton foundation. the comments about her e-mail -- donny: excuse me. would it be tough right now given the latest events in terms of cuba and his foundation things, isn't that a weak punch to be focusing on her foundation? >> certainly. a lot of republicans want to see him doing everything he can to make that case against hillary clinton not getting distracted by these old grudges, these personal issues, counterpunching every time he gets hit by something coming in from the side. they want to see their nominee focused and executing every day and he is failing to do that , right now. john: you mentioned the fact that this behavior, it makes you wonder about whether trump will be able to pull it together. everyone in his world thinks he must do better in the second debate and that will require , work and focus and discipline. just seeing this behavior, the

3:00 a.m. tweets, what conclusions would one draw about what that means for what the next two weeks will hold? >> i think the real concern is that he could be the best prepared candidate or the best prepared person in the world but he walks on that debate stage and he is baited, all the preparation goes out the window. he was moderately prepared and he did get out a couple of answers and he arguably won the , first 20 minutes. he cannot resist taking the bait. he is incredible he thin-skinned and he follows every rabbit down hole, and that is a real concern, his lack of self discipline. >> will be watching a week from sunday. thank you, you're both great and we will be right back. ♪

john: if this weekend i am up late and i see a tweet from you at 3:10 a.m., what should i conclude about your state of mind? donny: you should go nowhere near a nuclear weapon. john: that is good to hear. i like to know that you are honest about your state of mind. bloomberg.com to learn about why congress is regretting the saudi bill override. we will have coverage of the vice presidential debate. you can watch it on bloomberg tv and twitter. donny have a great , weekend and sayonara. ♪

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