john: i'm john heilemann. mark: and i'm mark halperin. "with all due respect" to those who wonder if donald trump is savy, that has been answered. ♪ cyber warfare ♪ i have a son, he's so good with these computers. ♪ cyber warfare ♪ all dueee to "best of

due respect." with a look at how the candidates did in their first debate monday night. less than 24 hours after donald trump and hillary clinton faced off on the debate stage, and many in the media declared clinton the winner from last night. the democratic nominee took a victory lap in raleigh, north carolina. mrs. clinton: did anybody see that debate last night? [cheering] mrs. clinton: oh, yes. one down, two to go. and when i confronted him with the reasons why he would not release his tax returns, i got to the point where i said, "maybe he's paying zero." he says, "maybe that makes him

smart." [boos] mrs. clinton: if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make the rest of us? mark: donald trump also claiming victory. that was the main thrust of his talking points when he came into the spin room last night. donald trump and his team are trying to mitigate the fallout from the criticism of his debate , or as some people call it, "making excuses." mr. trump: he didn't ask her about the e-mails at all -- about her scandals. he didn't ask her about the benghazi deal. he didn't ask her about a lot of things she should have been asked about. there is no question about it. if you watch the last four on birther.e hit me

he hit me on a housing deal that i settled a while ago. they were leaving all of her little goodies out. those questions were not answerable in a positive light. i had a microphone with -- i do problem with my microphone. i wonder if it was set up that way on purpose. my microphone in the room -- they couldn't hear me. it was going on and off. which isn't exactly great. i wonder if it was set up that way. it was much lower than hers. i don't want to believe in conspiracy theories of course. but it was much lower than hers and it was crackling. john: oh no, donald trump would never want to believe in a conspiracy theory. this is what hillary clinton had to say about all of that. >> what about his stamina? mrs. clinton: anybody who complains about the microphone is not having a good night. john: another trick donald trump likes to use when he feels he is not being treated fairly by the media. he likes to talk about the

polls. mr. trump: we have won almost every single poll. almost all of them. except for cnn. no one watches cnn though. we won the rest. cbs, slate, time magazine -- all of them. we won all of them. john: oh, he did win all of them. especially that cbs poll, which does not exist. cbs did not do a postdebate poll. the rest were online surveys. the most credible of the bunch was that cnn-orc survey, which found that 62% of voters said that clinton had a better night. so mark, not a good day for donald trump. not a good night last night. do you believe at this point it would do him good politically to admit that he lost? mark: i'm stipulating between what is and what ought to be. i felt, this morning, he ought to say, "it was my first day debating. i don't like how the questions

went. i will do better next time." his supporters says -- his supporters say he won. rush limbaugh said that he won. as brazen and as counterfactual as it was, i think he should tough it through. pretend it did not happen and hope it does not affect the polls. john: i don't like giving donald trump advice on what to do. what not to do. we will talk about it more. he plainly lost the debate. there are examples in the past with bush in 2004 and obama in 2012 with a campaign did not , "we lost." say but they have come out and said you know it was not a good night. that helps with better credibility with the media. credibility with the mainstream media is not how donald trump advances himself politically. barack obama had to confront mass panic about his supporters

and it meant that he lost it would do better the next time. democrats were freaking out. trump fans are not freaking out. they saw a different debate. they think you one. won. mark: there is no soundbite moment. there are a lot of moments that i think will haunt him in further democratic ads, but there was no major "oops." as much as there is built up to the debate, i just don't think he has to turn the page to say "i lost, let's move on." he can just muscle through trump-style and hope the polls don't suggest that he lost. john: i think they might though. mark: what can hillary clinton do to capitalize on this performance from the debate? john: she has been doing it.

she has been doing it all day today. you are right there was not a big moment where trump said a glaring thing. which he is doing though is highlighting moments to try and keep the nerd of going. on the question of his taxes, where i thought her performance was brilliant, asking hypotheticals, asking questions, and having him not denying the suggestions. that opened the door to that issue. we saw him take debate on many issues and make factual misstatements over the course of the night. she and her team are amplifying those mistakes through the media. they can keep this thing alive for several more days on that basis. mark: at least on social and targeted media. my second favorite haley barbour expression, "politics gets better, bad gets worse." she was talking about optimistic and joking with them.

she is enjoying the wind. she is not gloating about it or going over the top about it, but she is serving the success she had last night. it has put her in a good mood. while republicans are not panicking, democrats are super happy. john: here's the thing you can tell about the candidates -- we will talk about the campaigns and a second and how they tried to frame things, but when a candidate feels they have one and have been adjudged to have one, they have this look of confidence. -- if he had one about the debate, he would not be talking about the moderator with a microphone. it is a window into his psyche. he's admitting that he lost the the debate by making excuses. she is on a bit of a roll. she is confidence. mark: he is confidence, because he always feels confident. however, she is definitely feeling a lot right now. john: we got a bit dizzy from

all of the spinning in the hofstra university spin room last night. since then, both candidate campaigns have sent surrogates and running mates to flood the airwaves with talking points. let's take a sample of what team trump has been saying last night. >> donald trump took command of the stage. i think the american people saw his leadership quality. >> i was glad he was polite and a gentleman to her. particularly at the end with the biggest punch of all. >> i felt his restraint at the end was absolutely remarkable. she was just sort of program hillary. >> she obviously was over prepared. she wanted to make sure we heard every single scripted moment. john: that was the trump song. now, we will listen to the tune of the clinton chorus, singing very joyfully today. >> i thought hillary clinton was prepared. donald trump was incoherent.

>> i think he came onto the stage grossly unprepared. it kind of unraveled during the course of the debate. i think he disqualified himself on every level. >> hillary answered questions, and donald avoided them. hillary clinton told the truth, and donald trump told some whoppers. >> she came ready to talk about the future, not ready to just insult. >> i don't think donald trump can be president. he does not have the temperament. john: this all matters in some sense. people make fun of spin-meisters, but these matter a lot. in terms of how the campaigns how areling things, they handling these cases? mark: technical proficiency and size matters. the clinton campaign is learning from the obama template about how to aggressively get surrogates on all forms of media. given that the trump team is so much smaller and less experienced and playing a weaker

hand, i don't think they did a bad job of creating the impression "the red team says this, the blue team says this." the hillary clinton people did better, that the donald trump people did do well. john: they have done a good job preventing panic among supporters. you can tell talking about candidates, we covered a lot of debates. right in that spin room, the clinton campaign was out before the debate was over. they were not only arguing that she won, but you can tell that she believed it. the trump campaign came out much much later. although they definitely tried, bottom line, you could tell they knew that they had been beaten. they just had that look and the rise. mark: the clinton people were barely trying to spin. there was no it -- there was no attempt. there are happy to let the candidates speak for themselves.

the clinton people are at fighting readiness. it will be interesting to see not only of trump goes better, but if this operation improve. there are lots of people involved that have never done this before. certainly not at this level. john: certainly records of how -- certainly, a lot of the hillary clinton people have a lot that have done this before. they've spoke to reporters and spun things. mark: think they've had more social media communications then trump has employees. what donald trump has said about a former miss universe is out of this world. coming up next, our story on how hillary clinton is using the controversy.

♪ >> donald trump and his campaign are still dealing with the fallout of the fat shaming over miss universe winner alicia machado. she has been sharing her story over a variety of sources.

>> what were the names he called you? piggy.housekeeping, miss >> all to your face? >> yes. he was really aggressive. he was very rude. he was a bad person with me. that is the story i need to share. accept more insults for my latin community. no more. i need to share my story. i think i can open a few eyes. minds.aybe change a few person is thethis right person to be president.

about how thetalk media has been covering the story in just a moment. my question for you at this hour is whether the story is accelerating or simmering down? i think the donald trump campaign can be forgiven for thinking this will go away. some of these have lingered but not quite as dominant stories. the reason why i think they may be wrong and that this will linger as a news story in a hot way -- we are in a different phase in the campaign. this did not happen at a rally or an interview. this happened during a debate in a high-profile way. she is someone -- whatever flaws she might have, what donald trump said about her is going to resonate with a lot of people. i think it is still moving. john: i said yesterday on the someone in to insult a way that has such a residence with so many people.

-- resonance with so many people. -- abstract policy or political issues. these elected things in the culture that people talk about over the dinner table every day. that is a very dangerous terrain to insult many millions of people in that way. i think you're right. i think she has come across quite sympathetically in her interviews. hurtame across like she is . i do not know if the donald trump campaign is ever going to apologize to her. i think it would be smart for them to shut this down by apologizing. john: to paraphrase donald

trump, i do not care what she went out and -- i do not care if she went out and shot someone, when he said to her was rude and offensive. dropress is not going to this. the clinton campaign is not going to drop this. i am not saying it is going to dominate or cost him the election, but it is wrong to think that something like this is just another person that donald trump insulted and no one cares. mark: a lot of people think donald trump is a bully. you can say a lot of things about your political opponents and don't really cares, but when you start bullying private citizens, you are in a different terrain. john: no nominees do this. donald trump and his campaign are not competent that is a primary criticism of them. the way this is being seen is incompetent.

mark: coming up, we will traverse the electoral map. after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ >> we are back with a man that says hillary clinton has a 100% chance of winning. that means there are no scenarios we could lay out for a donald trump victory greatly. we would get david in here to look at those scenarios. us why they are not just implausible but impossible. let's look at the first one. this is the baseline for any donald trump win. ohio and northre carolina. all the scenarios include the big three and iowa.

let's look at the first scenario that could get him to 270. that would be adding in pennsylvania. three and the big pennsylvania, you could can see that he would win the big three and i left? -- iowa? >> no. the two states he is doing best in our iowa and ohio, but i still believe -- >> is a impossible that he could win florida? >> advocate is very unlikely. -- i think it is very unlikely. >> not impossible. could he win north carolina? >> yes. >> ok, he can. tell us why pennsylvania is impossible for donald trump. >> it is the easter bunny.

it does not exist. he is going to walk out of southeastern pennsylvania, the three suburban counties, and she is going to have north of 500,000 votes. here's what i think. if donald trump were a different candidate that had some appeal to suburban voters, i still think it would be hard for republicans. his problem is his northern virginia problem. he just cannot get there. could he get within two or three? possibly. >> us take a look at scenario number two. this is the new hampshire pass. -- path. you have the big three plus iowa . nevada, newded hampshire -- >> i think she is going to win new hampshire quite comfortably. i think that southern teir is

quite comfortable. i think with nevada, the polls will be close. because of the latino vote their -- if i were to rank them, i think it is certain that she will win new hampshire. the white comfortably in 2012. what is -- the democrats won nevada comfortably in 2012. why is she behind in the polling there right now? >> donald trump may be at a ceiling. he is closer to a ceiling than she is. party vote is going to collapse, and she should get more of that. in these polls, the latino vote isd gold is -- huge. quite --

>> let's take a look at three scenarios. one is in colorado. no chance there? >> no. well, you are saying that this includes florida? >> well it is the big three and iowa. what about wisconsin? >> the democratic strength in the upper midwest -- donald trump -- barack obama had unique strength there both times. i just do not see it happening for donald trump. he is from illinois -- we do not have to spend much time or money out there. wisconsin was a little closer. in colorado, the polling is very close. >> gary johnson is getting a big chunk of that though. why are you so sure? >> if you look at modeling out

100% of the electorate and the aggregate of most public polls, that is going to be one of his estate. toin, i think she is going beat him with the latino vote in colorado. if you add in suburban swing voters, which i think she will gain in a dominant way. >> as you said before, the map has narrowed. the donald trump campaign has this proposition, "we will go all in." he did do a week long a bus tour in pennsylvania or wherever they --ose combinations -- let us assume that i would -- iowa is safe. >> your campaign is a little less optimistic about this.

let's it we get the last three weeks, and he has those pretty well to join. he could campaign in four states. he could campaign in florida and north carolina in any other two that could get him over the top. at that point, you are running for governor in four states at the same time. he can pour money and an republican allies. and republican allies. nowhe end, you are saying that if you look at the national map he cannot get to 270. isn't it possible that a guy that is willing to drop a lot of money to go into four states in three weeks? no,ote, because the -- because the product matters here. he is a flawed product. he is not going to get elected president. >> so he is not going to win all four of those states? allo, she is going to win four.

david, think you for coming in. if you are watching this program, there is a hot -- there is a 100% chance you could listen to it on the radio. we will be right back. ♪

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♪ >> welcome back. is a writer for the new york times. that is jim gutenberg. good to see you. tell me what you think of this 24 hours of coverage. yesterday, we had a big coverage on who won or lost. now, we have a different storyline. tell us how the debate fallout story is going from eight media point. >> it is coming down in a bunch of different directions. you have a status comment about

a beauty queen. we have a question of whether or not he will buckle down for his next debate. there were gender questions. this debate did not disappoint. was also the big ratings boost. the debate got more coverage than i've ever seen in politics. >> what besides the beauty queen storyline came out of the debate that really dominated the debate? >> i think the debate prep this year becomes more than just a process story. clinton in her seemingly prepared remarks -- she said she was not preparing for the debate come up but she was preparing for the presidency. >> i like that you said seemingly. >> it did clearly land the way the campaign is embracing it. if you do not prepare for the debate how are you going to -- if you are not preparing for the

presidency, how are you going to win the debate? i think that is how the donald trump campaign will prepare for the next one. i think they mean it. >> in the context of alicia machado, there are some stores that have shown up in brazilian tabloids that have been negative about her past. we have mentioned them glancing lieff the beginning of the show. have you seen thus far, any mainstream non-right outlets that have picked those up. do you anticipate that they will if they have not already? >> i've not seen them pick it up and run with it in the same way. the donald trump campaign once a story about this again the next morning. he's going toif focus on the things that people that he did well on in the debate.

>> the press loves a winner. i've not seen many negative stories about the clinton since the debate. a lot of negative stories about donald trump. is that bad practice on the part of the media? should we not say that she won the debate so no more investigative stories? >> i don't think so. what everyone has to do is take a deep breath. before this debate, the hype was that this would change the dynamic of the race. no one is really feeling that right now today. maybe give it a few days, and then we will see. everyone just needs to calm down a little bit. >> again, should part of our job he that because she won -- just because she won the debate come at that does not mean that all the stories about donald trump have to be tilted in a negative direction? >> it does not. i do not think it will. it feels that way now but the debate was -- how many days

hasn't been? onwell, the debate was monday. it was kind of feeling like, if you win the debate then you get a get out of jail free card for the next couple of hours. >> hopefully, it will swing back towards the center. >> true or false, donald trump is in unusually media savvy candidate? >> the most media savvy that i've seen in my lifetime. >> so true. we know he did not prepare much for the debate. seemingly so many fundamental tb elements. so my things and he seemed to get so well before with almost a tv producers. can you explain that? >> i wonder if he was maybe, shockingly a little bit nervous? maybe he is a little human and

that. i also think there has been so little consequence to him getting basic things wrong. couldid he just that he amble through it and be ok. part of what has made him compelling this year is this hot mess quality. >> liberals are going to kill you on social media for saying, "donald trump is human." >> i did say maybe. >> well, they do so much for joining us. >> i cut there would be more questions. >> no, that is it. you are great. thank you for joining us. we are going to be live with three guest on the set after this. ♪

♪ >> we have a super lineup in the studio right now. joining us now is dancing your penn.nd mark we want to start with it clip from last night. >> he was really rude with me. he was trying to destroy my self-esteem. now, i am a voice in the latin community. mark: as a man, how do you feel about that? >> it is a personal thing that

she is choosing to do. really, it is none of my business. i'm not going to weigh in on it too much. there are some things in her background that are a bit questionable, but i believe those to be out there. mark: what he said to her is not in dispute. a lot of it is on videotape. >> she chose to participate in the pageant. they had these interactions -- i do not think it matters. prickly, i don't think it matters to the american people. they don't care about any direction from 20 years ago. they care about the economy, national security. they care about the women he has employed. i think the left is trying to portray him as this monster. however with this one moment, it is just a personal -- >> a few years ago, he attacked her for gaining weight. he accused her of gaining

weight. hehe was not accusing her, was just talking about what was happening 17 years ago. >> he went on and attacked her for gaining weight. he accused her of gaining weight. >> that is not the verbatim. >> we are talking about a tiny issue here. do you really think that people in ohio or florida are going to vote based on this. absently not. john: you do agree that he did talk about her weight. >> i think you learn a lot in these situations about temperament. what is striking to me is that the morning after the debate, this did not go very well for him. his immediate response is to attack a private citizen for her weight. that is a window -- >> if you were a donald trump advisor would you say not talk about this? >> i would say that your

temperament is the number one issue holding you back from being president. just say that you and her had a disagreement and you are moving along. i'm here to talk about taxes today in my tax cut plan. -- i've other than that been through a lot of crisis is, and anything other than that is just ammo for someone else out there. >> it does speak to his temperament and character. >> the media wants to run with the narrative. it is being pushed by the hillary clinton campaign. if you look at donald trump's campaign, he has empowered women. kellyanne conway, she has been a guest of this show. i think this is simply not the truth about mr. trump. let's talk about his proposals and his childcare plan could it is revolutionary for republicans to want to have paid paternity leave. -- paid maternity leave. >> i does want to say that i

miss critical of the media as anybody, but to be fair, it was donald trump on fox and friends that said she had a weight problem. >> the new york times said the same thing. she said the same thing about herself in that new york tribes -- new york times interview. >> give us your overall sense of and polls?n polls -- have you see her chances? -- how do you see her chances? >> i thought she would come out strong, and clearly understanding the issues. i thought she was more aggressive than i expected. i think that a crisis this against donald trump work -- that aggressiveness against donald trump work. him.asically thumped even though in the first half hour, they were candidate to candidate. in the next half hour, she

basically thumped him. chances ofgree that winning are behind percent -- that her chances of winning are 100%? asked i do not think anyone's -- >> i do not think anyone's chances are 100%. >> does donald trump need to prepare more for the next debate? he will be absolute-- >> you will be absolutely ready for the next debate. he will be absolutely ready for the last debate. >> you feel that if donald trump prepares for the next debate in the same with it he repaired for the first debate that he will be golden. >> we are very confident going into the next debate. if you look at the last debate, hillary clinton try to live to the american people about new york crime rates. she tried to lie about several issues. she was very robotic. who won the debate?

-- >> who won the debate? >> i felt donald trump when the debate. where is your party now in terms of comfort with donald trump and his chances? >> i think most republican leaders that i've spoken to believe that hillary clinton have an edge. she will probably win. right now, the wind will not be so decisive that it will do a lot of damage on the ballot. that is anecdotal. that is what i've heard from -- >> 95% of republicans are for donald trump. in pennsylvania, 71% of pennsylvania republicans are behind on a drum. in just one week, 85% are now behind him. that is just a 14 -- that is a 14% swing in just one week. 70% are saying that things are

on the wrong track. if we are talking about the message, it might be powerful. if he does to more debates were basically his temperament gets in the way and he does not appear qualified, this thing is going to snowball in her direction. if you bounces back -- if he , if we are actually talking about any of his points, it would help donald trump. >> we could be talking about trade. , there are at say snowball of stories coming out of the debate. >> i felt the first 20 minutes were effective. he spoke about the birther movement. he attacked this woman about her weight. you think he should've just date off those topics? >> the reason those issues came what thecause that was moderator asked about.

listen to what donald trump said just a few minutes ago out on the trail in iowa. mr. trump: she cannot even make it to her car. >> so, he is back to talking about 9/11. is that a good line? issue's talk about this -- do you think it is a smart move for your boss to be impugning upon henry clinton's health? >> that is a requirement to be resident. you took one line of that speech. there are a lot of lines in that speech. one of those messages is, "follow the money." >> we do not want to suggest that is all he said today. however, we want to talk about the issues and the things that are affecting the american people. you were saying that she could not even make it to her car when she had pneumonia. >> this is why we talk about a

subset of issues. he discussed taxes in his speech. he's making this type of comments that you know are going to make the most attention. he is attacking her health. >> it is an observation. >> do you to talk about issues or her health? prefer to talk about issues. i will talk about whatever you want. signpically, it is a bad when people like you and me come on every sequel television show, and i see it with not just you but a lot of surrogates for the donald trump campaign -- the explanation is that the media is to blame. the media is focusing on things while your campaign just want to focus on the issues. >> what i am saying is -- the next two debates, there is no way that hillary clinton will not answer for her e-mails, libya, the clinton foundation. i talking about the issues, want to know what the corporate

tax record is going to be like. >> the issue of stamina just came up. there are several people that watched the debate and felt that hillary clinton stood upright at the podium and was very strong for 95 minutes. donald trump just seemed to fade during the debate. what is your perception of the two candidates? >> it was completely ridiculous for donald trump to say that when the living contradiction of what he was saying was right there. she had a bad video. she had stuff that happened. however, even today, what is he doing? he obviously thinks it is a great strategy. i do not know what paul would show that -- poll would show that. >> i think she had the best debate performance. i'm not biased in favor of hillary clinton. i just thought she was energetic and reigning with optimism. -- brimming with optimism.

she was almost that are on the attack then talking about her own ideas. i do not think she was that about her owning policies. however, when she prosecuted him, i felt that was great. when she asked him why he would not reveal his tax returns, she listed the four reasons why someone would -- >> that is not what he said. he said that if you follow the as it is written, there are ways that you can minimize the amount. >> in one context she said you are not paying any money. he said that making smart. >> i actually do the same thing with business. let me answer for a moment. she had about five days off beforehand. we flew out early in the morning. stops,pittsburgh, two philadelphia was three stops.

it was a huge saturday. maybe she was a little more rested because she had five days off. we are now focusing on -- >> she did not have time off. she went to school. donald trump did not go to school. donald trump has to go to school if he is going to be president. he did not go to debate school. he just showed up. is he going to go to school to be president? things ine the three donald trump's favored to win the election. >> the three biggest things are that 70% to leave the country is going in the wrong direction. the second thing is that both candidates are untruthful and people do not like either of them. there are a lot of angry voters out there, particularly white, male voters that are enthusiastic about him. those are the top three things for him. >> how dangerous is gary johnson to her winning?

>> i do not think it will be decisive. he is not in the debates, and i think it will fade in the end. i do not think it will be a big factor. >> are you prepared to say on camera that you know donald trump has paid federal income taxes in the past year? >> he has always followed all rules and regulations. >> so are you going to say on camera that he has paid them? >> i'm not his lawyer. >> so far the campaigns have been willing to say -- >> all i know is that he is followed all the rules and regulations. i also know he wants do simple five he tax code. -- simplify the corporate tax code. say, "i tried to minimize my taxes. to me that comes off as being smart. however, i have paid my corporate income taxes."

why can he not say that? >> he has said that repeatedly. bottom line, as a businessman, of course are going to pay what the tax line said. said ishe should have that i have paid every single cent due to the united states government including the number of taxes on my employees and properties. >> we are at a time. we have to go. all of you, thank you for joining us. all of you, please come back. >> stay tuned. we have more of, "best of with all due respect." ♪

>> over the past few weeks, we have noticed that one way you

could decipher how hillary clinton and her team are feeling about how the race is going. arctic is to look at the handsome face of her traveling -- our tip is to look at the handsome face of her traveling press secretary. he is been a constant presence the highter which he speaks with the press. present the hind her when she has spoke with the press. ind her when she has spoken with the press. basically, just look at the expression on his face. see if it is either happiness or nick or sadappy nick. >> yes, just pay attention. that's the trick. it is put on a happy face when the press is watching. i think he's just letting us know what is going on. thank you, neck. thank you for watching this addition of, "test of with all

due respect." you can continue to watch our coverage of the live debates on twitter. be sure to follow our twitter handle to stay up-to-date on all of our campaign coverage. >> if you are washing -- if you are watching this in washington, d.c., you can also catch this on the radio. make sure to check out bloomberg.com for all of our election coverage. we'll see you next time. sayonara. ♪

♪ emily: i'm emily chang in this is "best of bloomberg west," where we bring you all our top interviews from the week in tech. coming up, billionaire entrepreneur elon musk unveiling a bold plan to colonize mars. how he wants to build a city of one million people. why he is concerned about donald trump. that interview coming up. and, disney jumping in the race for the potential bid to buy twitter. what the media giant sees in a struggling social media compy.