tv Countdown Bloomberg October 3, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT
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manus: little to bake -- the door tdeutsche bank drama continues. asian stocks rise after a report that deutsche bank is lining up a less costly settlement with u.s. regulators than investors feared. pulling the brexit trigger. the pound falls as theresa may says she will invoke article 50 by the end of march next year. >> it was legitimate. it was the biggest vote for change this country has ever known. brexit means brexit and we are going to make a success of it.
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manus: you are very welcome to "countdown." i'm manus cranny in london. wards atd i'm anna ed the conservative party conference in birmingham. march 20th, 2017, that is the date we heard yesterday from prime minister theresa may. that is when she said she will trigger article 50. it seems britain is set on cour se to leave the eu. we heard a lot about timing yesterday and about process. more on that later in the program. but we heard very little detail, and we will not get very much it seems about the relationship between the eu and the u.k.
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we heard little about immigration and trade at the conference yesterday. in fact, theresa may rejected there is a dichotomy between those demands. we will reveal more about what we heard here. philip hammond will be here, distancing himself a little bit from the policies of his predecessor. we might hear about house building as well. but today, we need to hear about bank andt on deutsche what the speculation has done to the asian trading session. manus: there is no doubt about it. when we look at the pound in a moment, just how hard a brexit would theresa may be prepared to bargain with? let's have a look at the deutsche bank story. you have the demolition from september 9. just over seven days ago, we were going to see a $40 million charge from the department of justice.
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that turns the entire global sentiment around. that cost could be $5.4 billion. deutsche bank u.s. trading flatlined in terms of global equities. john cryan is personally negotiating with the department of justice. never smaller and rarely, more menacing. that is the european banks in terms of the correlation coefficient in terms of what they do and what the global equity market sentiment is. we also have a cracking story from aberdeen. deutsche bank should splash bonuses of staff, according to autonomous research. if they did that, they could contribute just under 300 billion euros of capital. directors, should they take an equitable amount of pain? as for the political conviction behind deutsche bank, what they are lining up on the global industry side.
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the vice chancellor from germany is saying, i don't know whether to laugh or be angry that deutsche bank declares speculation is the business model for them. they now declare they are the victims of speculation. there is no doubt about it. he department of justice has new litigation. now, there is a global relief for a rally on my. let's get to the risk radar. we have seen the pound move. we have had a better than expected pmi. msciou can see the emerging markets rally by over 0.5%, building on the best quarter since 2012. the yen was a little bit more risk on. the pound is lower, anna. we are within a smidge, 1%, of that 1985 low. this is the first time the market is raising its short game
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on the pound since the end of august. oil dips by .6%. we have added seven new ranks. the biggest may we have seen for a number of months in terms of his supply coming online. crude oil, down .7%. that is your risk and those are your markets. rosalind chin has the first word. reporter: the pound fell after the british prime minister said she will pull the trigger on brexit by the end of march. theresa may will invoke article 50, starting a roughly two year process of taking the nation out of the european union. the confederation of the british industry has called for urgent guidelines on how they will trade with the biggest partners. meanwhile, the chancellor, philip hammond, will use his first major speech to reiterate
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britain has dropped its goal to obtain a fiscal surplus by the end of the decade. to underline the deficit remains "unsustainable." he will discuss the need for a new plan to manage the nation's finances in a pragmatic way. policymakers will take little convert from the survey released this morning. the large manufacturer sentiment belowcame in just expectations. however, spending across all large companies is expected to rise 6.3%. although, that is also slightly below forecasts. china's officially factory gauge remains at its highest level in almost two years. manufacturing pmi came in at 50.4. the story between columbia and rebels has been narrowly
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rejected at the ballot box. voters were asked simply if they bagged the deal. 99.9% of polling stations reported and people have 52%.ted the deal by 5 donald trump will not release any new tax information, according to people familiar with the matter. this comes after the "new york that he paidimed no federal income tax for almost two decades. trump says he will not release his records until the irs complete an audit. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries around the world. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . this is bloomberg. will we see thsoose records?
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let's stay with hong kong. manus, we heard a little bit about what the pound is doing and what asian equities are doing. here is shery ahn with the de tails. reporter: using concerns about good -- easing concerns about deutsche bank are definitely helping in asia, but especially when it comes to the nikkei. the yen has been weakening for a fifth consecutive section. the nikkei is up .5%. i have to mention a lot of markets in asia are closed today. .8%.alia, up the hang seng index, trading today up 1.3%. areong kong, the stocks searching after gaining revenue in september. take a look at these currency is right now because we have some movers.
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indonesia, now strengthening, days ofpping two losses. we have inflation data from september, rising 3.07% on year. the rupiah seeing gaining strength. take a look at the kiwi dollar because it is a different story. this is because of expectations of a rate cut from the bank of new zealand. u.s.ng right now at 72.62 cents. manus: thank you very much, shery ahn. let's talk about deutsche bank now, poised to reach an agreement. they will pave the way, cutting 1000 jobs. the stock rally the most in almost six months at the end of trade on friday, after media reports suggested the german lender is nearing a settlement with the u.s. department of
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justice that is significantly smaller than what was expected. caroline hyde is tracking this story. my question to you is, is friday's optimism justified? seven days ago, the world went into turmoil because the german government suggested it would not backstop deutsche bank. here we are, and a tweak turned the market. caroline: exactly because the turmoil was also engulfing deutsche bank because of the size of the potential fine coming from the department of justice, $14 billion. the association came out saying, maybe just $5.4 billion. that helped push the stock higher. but this is a company that cannot catch a break right now. already engulfed in fines previously because of bad behavior about the the selling of mortgage. behaviord, now bad
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and rolling the oldest lender in italy, monte paschi. bank's managers are charged with colluding and manipulating the market. once again, another headache for john cryan. his aim this week is to shore up the market in terms of proving he can be profitable. he could be striking a deal as soon as this week regarding letting go 1000 employees here in germany. this has to do with the 9000 he was talking about back in 2015. but executives are traveling to washington this week. this could be because of the imf meeting on friday, but maybe, he might be popping into the department of justice over and washington. i am sure that is a clever use of their time. anna: caroline, we will track
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his movements carefully. how are german businesses responding? caroline: we have seen a real rallying of the troops. the sundayan press, paper said the german industry is backing deutsche bank. they need a national champion. a bank that need accompanies them around the world. we have heard from daimler, the big players are coming out and saying, "we need deutsche bank." refore, maybe this is a time for the german government not to be so quick to say they will not support it. this could be a time for the rest of the market to stop speculating against. the leader of this smaller coalition party that works with head of the social
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as part of the coalition has been saying, i don't know whether to laugh or cry. he is anchored about the speculation going on, the fact that deutsche bank is blaming speculation. when actually, it is the biggest investment bank in europe and it drives on speculation. he said he is often worried about deutsche bank. >> it has been not a very nice day for the german banking stock, but i think that is a very short-term view. i am convinced we will move forward after next week. caroline: is there counterparty risk on commerzbank? .> i am not prepared to comment but i am relaxed. manus: reporting there by caroline hyde and she will join us throughout the day from berlin. joining me in the studio and at the party conference, the head of currency strategy at world first here in the u.k.
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when you look at the deutsche bank story, and the risk it has induced onto the markets last week, what rabbit hole did we just go down must week? >> we went down a hole nobody has been paying too much attention to for the past couple of years. we saw a little bit of it back in february with the slight andle around the koco's, then it got quiet and the market got myopic about risk. we were worried about china and brexit. everything else has festered in the background. i say simple. hitting the bank, the possibility it will be revised lower. just that little nudge of risk is enough to send us drastically lower. so, sentiment, particularly here, is very poor. isa: jeremy, so sentiment poor in the sector. does this speak to the euro at
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all? >> we have not seen much reaction in the euro currency at the moment. against sterling, it is the looking very healthy. the brexit risk on the pound. we have seen a little bit of a switchover in the euro-dollar and how it is being funded for carriage rates elsewhere. earlier, the euro was funded, and now the dollar is being used. so, the euro is still maintaining a very good backbone at the moment. it will likely continue until that meeting of the ecb this year. manus: we will get to the consequences of that carry trade a little bit later. let's talk about t the impact to the ecb. chart.v we have a pie 1/3 of the sovereign debt is ineligible, $2.2 trillion worth
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of bonds yielding more than the deposit rate in terms of negatives. i am getting lost my positive and negatives. aggregatee global going more negative, now nearly $12 trillion rising at 6%. this is a real consequence for the market. >> it is. and how do they turn it around with the central banks continuing to buy a huge amount montht on a month by quarterly basis into the early part of next year with deposit rates still so low and global aggregate demand not picking up. manus: will this force draghi into having to do something more aggressive? >> it depends on what you call aggressive. i don't think we will see another cut in the deposit rate. i think we could see some form of, moving around the edges.
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manus: jeremy, stay with us for the rest of the hour. jimmy cook stays with us -- jeremy cook stays with us on "countdown." later today, chancellor philip hammond may give the indication spending plans will be revealed at the conservative party conference. tomorrow, we get the vice presidential candidates in their own face-to-face debate. theon wednesday, we have fed's evans and lacker. th last monetary policy meeting and we get to round off the week with the jobs report, non pharm payrolls. later today, the cleveland fed president will join our central bank watch for an exclusive interview at 8:15 u.k. time.
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coming up, pushing the button. theresa may says article 50 will butriggered next march, revealed little about her negotiation plans. we are live to the conservative party conference. plus, we have the latest on the japanese manufacturing index. and a torrid week for european lenders. where do they go now? we have a conversation with the ing cfo. this is bloomberg. ♪
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today, it is philip hammond. absolutely, every bit the brexiteer. march of 2017, that is when they will trigger, at the latest, article 50. they spent a lot of time justifying why they needed to trigger article 50 at all. that seems to be necessary in front of the party. "brexit means brexit and we are going to make a success of it." here is what she said about timing. theresa may: let me be absolutely clear. there will be no necessary delays in invoking article 50. we will invoke it when we are ready and we will be ready soon. we will invoke article 50 no later than the end of march next year. anna: so, sounding every bit the brexiteer. she went to tell us about the late repeal bill. promised to protect
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workers' rights, but we did not hear all that much, manus. manus: there is a line she used, "i know some people ask for trade-off, but apparently we are thinking about it in the wrong way." what is that tells about the grand bargaining chip that is the access to the single market? anna: there are a couple things we are thinking about the wrong way, apparently. she says there is no dichotomy between access to the single market and immigration. davis told us the same. many are demanding more detail. we are all thinking about it the wrong way, in terms of hard and soft brexit. this is what she told us about why hard and soft are not the it. she sees theresa may: there is no such thing as a choice between hard brexit and soft brexit. the line of argument that soft brexit allows for continued eu
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membership and hard brexit is a god just decision t reject rate, that is a false dichotomy. like it or not, the country voted to leave the eu. so, we're going to leave the eu. anna: philip hammond is distancing himself from the policies of his predecessor. we might hear a little bit more about housing, but little detail on trading relationships with your. manus: anna, jeremy cook will give us the fx perspective. this is wcrs. the new zealand dollar is lower. the pound is down. the pound had its worst run of quarterly losses in years. are we structurally entering a new bear market on a hard brexit? >> i think the reason why we can
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see the pound down at the moment is, i don't think anybody in the market truly believes the triggering of article 50 of march of next year, starting that two year stopwatch. we are not ready for that. the negotiations of a seven-year trade deal cannot be done in two. the ratification of that certainly would not take place in those two years. so, there is additional uncertainty there. i think there are structural issues with the pound at the moment. beenrexit vote has largely in the consumer space, predisposed toward credit. but has to run out soon, cutting interest rates again. there is political risk in the u.s. and in europe. this points to me, to the headwind of sterling. anna: jeremy, does the market assume then, that we will take two years to negotiate our way out of the eu, but any trade
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negotiation takes much longer than that? if that is the case, where does that leave the pound in the medium term? >> i think you are right. looking at the average trade the country has negotiated with much larger trading blocs. it is going to take a lot longer than two years. in belgium, any trade deal would have to be ratified by the national government, as well as the local governments. that is something that will hold off on certainty and investor decisions into the u.k. our call for the end of the year is 122 inthat is something thatd off on cable. i am getting as high as 90 in euro-sterling. it is definitely a current thing that goes down the escalator and up the stairs. i think is going up the stairs with a broken leg. manus: there is one to print.
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and will infest in the digital transformation project, saying affecte initiatives will 7000 and this goes on the news that we had over the weekend with 10,000 jobs to go and 7000 jobs impact did. -- impacted. byre is a buffer of capital the and they reiterated news is they the will pay a progressive dividend thathere was a suggestion impacteding news is
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we will have more to come from the cfo later in the show. the seconds in quarter will come. get whatantime, let's is on the terminal and this is what we are looking at. we go over to you and it is all about you. >> i doubt that. economy and the goals and how he is distancing himself from fiscal targets the predecessor had.
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we may get more detail on funds available and there will be funds available for housing. headline oflead deutsche bank in an italian court. the employee and former executive -- in 2008 and it will pour on deutsche bank. the bank was run with the deals thereo create revenue and is another litigious issue than deutsche bank.
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you. relief in sense of some ofty markets and the asian markets. the risk is that deutsche bank and it is going to be one the negotiators on this. risk.is a little bit more let's talk about the increase in the drilling numbers and let's bloomberght to the middle east market. let's look at how that is looking.
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>> in terms of what could derail this in theere is united states and we are taking and you havecharge 184 since july and it is the highest level with the question of how many more rates are there say it is not big or fast enough and that the opec side of the equation has come out and said they want to and there is a
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capitale a buffer of and this is significant after deutsche bank is set to add to the job losses here. we will havego and the cfo here shortly with many questions. >> yes. andg conversation to be had we have the survey numbers here held and itex showed that manufacturers were more downbeat. let's get more analysis from our economy editor.
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what were the big takeaways for you? policy were lower than makers expected and they are in positive territory. this take away is about how low they were and this is when the bank of japan started the stimulus and things with ab enomics looked promising. it is a thumbs down from industry. with theo we look at manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sector. this is a challenge. over the weekend, the imf
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encouraged japan to get a grip and take a look at income policy. >> if we look at the difference between the manufacturers, a first thing we notice is that manufacturers are pessimistic and did not benefit early and we did see large manufacturers getting a little more optimistic and it is starting to hurt the big manufacturers and it has a andto do with exports sectors do look for positive. a big thing that helped was the yen, but that has changed. >> thank you. still with me is jeremy. thank you so much.
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who have i had a message from? is the for the viewers personification of manufacturers and there is a wonderful line was nokia harrop and there the earlier errors from the negative rates. ?hat is your take obviously, there are issues. i think that the japanese story and the inability for them to come through and give fiscal support has made it difficult expectationswith
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on the basis of the bank of japan being unable to create this with the policy fatigue in the markets and i think that we are in a bit of a holding pattern. >> we will get new forecasts and withre looking at a drop speculation in the media as to whether they will have to cut the forecast now. what does this outlook look like to you? inflation extending and we have that going. in the grand scheme, they continue and, unless we start to costspickup of energy
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towards the imported energy, we are not going to see something positive and the fiscal side of convince business to pick up the wages and it will help. know, the outlook is poor. >> there are things going on in japan exitednd stage left from the market and you thought it would be a boon for japan. central banks are loading up on yen and in the third quarter.
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pull as topush and whether or not you want exposure in japan. >> a lot of people are talking about moving out of china and places with relationships with .hina and the chinese economy but, japan has been hit harder. the interesting thing is that at emerging markets look mexico and malaysia. thank you so much for joining us. cut jobsthey plan to in the netherlands and belgium. deutsche bank says they are ready to advance their plans with jobs and credit analysts.
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and theul in doing that somethingo do that is they were recalcitrant in doing. so, it seemed clear that mario draghi didn't think that central banks were to blame and that he thought that other things where the problem. you think the timing has to do with the ecb. do with monetary policy and they reckoned diced there is aons and
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influenced decision on the banks . , the factok at this of the matter is that the markets panicked and i put it to you that the markets simply do not believe in the resolution mechanisms created by european regulators. to do something therer to the fdic and could be more time. we have a contributing to the banks arebanks and
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cuthas announced plans to and the cuts will come in the netherlands in the next five euros and 1.1 billion this may remain committed with the progressive dividends. patrick, thank you for joining us this morning. this the worst case scenario with jobs being let go? >> it is good to be on your show. , we are investing and continuing to invest with the digital strategy and it does mean less jobs.
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the important point is the commercial momentum and growing ratios,ack of capital but time waits for no man. meanss mean lower and it we can navigate through the environment and deliver the growth. is that this all of the restructuring? france?ut's aim and what about those other areas. can we expect more from you? >> we have challenging growth withts and they are light
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branches and we talk about growth taking over profit and these are areas we are investing in. more traditional banking need to move to a more digital platform investing in the netherlands to bring franchises to the level. >> last week, there was a warning about rates. doing more andks profits tripling? thehis your response to rate environment? >> exactly. yearve seen this for one
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and we do not see this changing .nd we are going to react we know that low rates mean deposit margins and we will invest in the digital strategy and grow the earnings in a low rate environment. >> we are 100 today's into brexit and there's a comment arently made that clients reluctant. how reluctant are they? >> there is some difficult there is a big
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step to come and we could see .hat uncertainty >> what did you learn with deutsche bank? the market does not believe the mechanisms. know, eight years ago, there was a difficult environment and we look at our strategy and we changed what we were doing and refocused on and we are growing and i can only really talk for ing.
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>> deutsche bank drama continues and there are face -- fresh charges in italy. deutsche bank is lining up a last costly -- a less costly settlement. slash positions and belgium and the netherlands will be hit the hardest. trigger by brexit the end of next year. >> the referendum results was clear and it was the a just vote
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for change the country has ever known and we are going to make a success of it. >> welcome to countdown. i am manus cranny. >> i am anna edwards. we know about the timing and the process of brexit and we did not hear in a lot of details about this and it looks like we will not the involved in the process and we will not get a running commentary. that is what we heard today and we are going to focus in on the income -- economy and talk a
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little bit about this. the impact from banks across the asian markets is speculation thend this story and response of this sector to low interest rates and a new strategy. is line just used is that it add and there will be people netherlands and that you will need to get on with your strategy. this is one of the lines given to me by patrick and there will be a stronger opening with frankfurt being closed today and
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the german quote for deutsche bank will not trade today. you have a global relief rally be a story that this could $14 billion and the purchasing manager index came and and there with negative capital, in terms of yield and is a challenge with a wonderful banks arehe european never smaller or more menacing. let's look at the risk radar and take you look -- take a look at exportsmarkets are with
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wrapped up in the pmi story and against all the currency's and we are back with the market hasnd rained -- raised the short game. added 8% overe three sessions. to 422 with 425, i should say, as the biggest monthly gain. you take a look at this and we have a dig shift with the amount of bonds out there and the negative yield with the
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bloomberg and barclays global index. there is a rise of 6% in thatmber and you can ring they'll with a little bit of breaking news on janus capital. >> it seems like a merger will happen in this asset management sphere. they recommended a merger of equals and they will have the billionnagement of $320 and they announced the mergers this morning with the amount of cost to the business or the synergy they want to generate thisher and they say that
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will have to be gotten used to and they described it as a merger of equals. seen one.never really i have been part of one. i have never experienced one. to close this by the this is yourr and breaking news stop let's go to rosalind chin. she has the first words and. on brexit the trigger march and starting outo-year process of taking
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this from the european union. hammond will use his speech to reiterate the need for a fiscal surplus by the end of the decade. set a need for a new plan to manage national finances. to get jobs to reduce costs, saying that the annual will be in a digital transformation. takeese policymakers will little comfort from a survey theysed this morning and
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expect this to rise in the fiscal year, although below forecast. officials have manufacturing pmi coming in for a second month in august. releaserump will not new tax information, up learning to people familiar with the matter. the republican candidate claimed a loss in 1995 and it allowed for twoay no income tax decades. dayal news 24 hours a powered by journalists in more than 150 countries.
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>> thank you very much. let's get up to date with the markets. be aware of the deutsche bank story continuing to move things. >> yes. many markets right now. trading is up and we had disappointing business sentiment and the japanese yen had five consecutive days of weakness with the hang seng index trading pastd revenue surged
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estimates. we are hearing that chinese overrities are probing and illegal property sales with training in hong kong. checking this situation right now, offshore is not doing much and i just wanted to talk about this because they think it is the way to go for the next few and they are saying pvs see will not loosen the grip because of the volatility means the image is hurt. >> thank you.
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reachhe bank is poised to an agreement that will pave a jobs.r suggestedia reports german lender is nearing a smallernt and it is than the initial request. good to see you, caroline. justified?imism >> perhaps ahead of the game. we do not know if they will be the figurethings and therestantially less and
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germany? >> there was a rally of support and we heard a name coming up out daimler and this came to say they supported this and that they needed a champion, a national champion. the chairman of the business says that they need the chairman bank and that this is the sort of support coming for deutsche bank. ceo forto the commerzbank. >> it has not been a nice day for the german banking stocks, but i think it is a short-term view after the next week. prepared to comment,
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but i am relaxed. >> video says there is the full dayt and that it is a unity here. is later inhow this the day. >> indeed. great job there. is the global strategist. thank you for coming in. you look at the world and the world panic because of the news article that the german government would not backstop banks. you?is the risk saying to
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utter lack of belief that they have the capacity to do what they say they are going to do. >> you have to look at the bankstion and it is around the world that are more rigid and more robust. what is the issue? deutsche bank has the liquidity thethe capital and there is outstanding department of can be and the bank recapitalized with a question of what terms the germans would want to recapitalize the bank and it is a different issue from a bankruptcy.
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, it is not correctly interpreted and there is another element to this with the credit and banks arent supposed to buy with the credit risks they have and a broader level the van they would do with the process they have, creating a distortion effect. it did not exist in 2008 and it now does. is athey are giving you better place with the underlying. >> good morning. we have heard that some are jumping to the defense of national champions in the
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banking sector. is this a sector you feel comfortable with? questionan interesting , whether it is regulations or .nterest rates we think the banking sector is one that you will want to avoid over the time horizon and there will always be tactical opportunities. this is a potential tactical opportunity with the negative headwindsstructural have been articulated with the business model. the negative rates people have heard
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of securities with the yields are a consequence of central bank policy and it does not really matter whether they take the yields or if it is the central bank. qe andketplace is doing they will have to buy fewer bonds with many positive consequences, because the down sheet does not increase. the alternative is a market sign ofng bonds and a and we with the system should touch on this a moment, this economic concept of neutral
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>> welcome back to count down. i am and that edwards. process andwo-year we now know the economy will take center stage and we will hear from philip hammond, who will be addressing delegates. what can hammond say today to help you have more confidence in the u.k. story? what will it look like after this negotiation? >> the way we are looking at a slow-motion crash.
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