>> welcome to monday morning. welcome to "on the move." i am guy johnson. caroline hyde is hard at work in berlin, joining the team. what are we watching? the focus is in german. bank faces fresh charges in italy. can john cryan do a deal with the doj in washington this week?

job cuts at ing. the dutch lender plans to slash jobs, 13% of its workforce. our low rates to blame? pulling the brexit trigger. the pouncing's as theresa may says she will invoke article 50 by the end of march next year. caroline: the pound trades lower on that news. u.k. futures are in the green. caution affecting european traders. germany is closed. everyone else is enjoying their holiday. overall, the dax will be shot. -- shut. still some nervousness, some risk aversion out there, as we build up whether a deal will be struck by deutsche bank this week. guy: lots of pmi data out of europe this morning. -- 820 ofayed 20 attention.

the british pound firmly in focus, dropping on the back of news we will get a trigger on article 50 before next month. we will hear from philip hammond -- hammond later on, chancellor of the exchequer. the bond market will probably respond to what happens with the data throughout the morning. here is the bloomberg first word news with rosalind chin. rosalind: the pound fell after the british prime ministers said she will pull the trigger on brexit by the end of march. theresa may will invoke article 50 of the lisbon treaty, starting a two-year process of taking the nation out of the european union. confederation of british industry has called for urgent guidelines on how u.k. business will trade with its biggest partner. u.k. chancellor philip hammond will use his first major speech to reiterate that britain has dropped its goal to achieve a fiscal surplus by the end of the

decade. he is due to underline that the deficit remains "unsustainable." he would use the speech to suggest a new plan to manage the nation's finances in a pragmatic way. jobslans to cut about 5800 over five years. the dutch lender expects to save about 900 million euros annually through the initiative. speaking to bloomberg, chief financial officer patrick flanagan said the investment in tech will impact jobs. invest in digital transformation, and continue to invest another $800 million in our digital strategy, it does unfortunately mean less jobs. the important point is, we have strong commercial momentum. we are growing profitability. roe ongrowing hourly -- the back of adjusting capital

ratios. rosalind: japanese investors will take little comfort from the survey released this morning. the index came in at six, unchanged from the previous time. spending at all large companies is expected to rise six point 3% this fiscal year, although that is also slightly below are cast. global news by more than 2600 journalists in more than 120 companies. this is bloomberg. caroline: all the talk of germany -- deutsche bank is potent -- poised to reach an agreement that will pave the way for eliminating about 1000 jobs, according to people with knowledge in the matter. an italian court charged deutsche bank with allegedly colluding with the bnp f to falsify accounts in 2008. germany's vice chancellor has criticized deutsche bank for building its business on speculation, and says he is concerned about job losses at the nation's biggest lender.

luca, and asset management us on set. joins good morning, gentlemen. first of all, what are the possibilities of john cryan doing a deal this week? he is in washington. he is therefore the bretton woods meeting. nevertheless, i am sure he is going to walk across the road to the doj. reporter: you would think the talks would continue. one of the issues he has is not totally in his hand. doj has not always been known to be the quickest, especially when you get down into the details of a settlement. but he has a lot of impetus to wrap something up4 4, 6 -- wrap something up sooner rather than later, or at least get a number agreed to, even if they have to iron out the details later. caroline: how much of a hit is it, this italian scandal?

it is only allegations that they were involved in potentially helping falsify some of the accounts, a passkey. but yet again it's bad behavior. the pointt underlines that the doj is not the only litigation concern for deutsche bank. they have this $6 billion worth of litigation reserves, but if that is all wiped out by this doj settlement, whatever the number comes to, then you have to build that back up for some of these other issues, including the ethics scandal, including issues in russia. there are a number of things on john cryan's plate. he has said he would like to knock as many out this year as possible, but that is going to mean setting aside more in legal reserves. guy: luca, is this a reason to derisk yourto portfolio? luca:the combination of deutschk

risk, and the fed are enough the portfoliorisk in the short term. caroline: is this a good time to step out of banks entirely? and is it a genuine concern about deutsche, or how systemic is it? luca: there is short-term outside potential for the banks. everyone seems to be short. we are not particularly bearish in the short term. we are bearish in the long-term. we see very weak profitability. the risk in terms of growth is very weak. in the short term, we do not think there is a big downside for the banks. understandrying to the symmetry of this. we saw a 17 point swing in deutsche bank, from low to high.

you are getting pulled around. the market is getting pulled around by this stuff. how easy is it to take a position? is there much upside? is the market priced in too much? , yout those kinds of moves could see significant upside. the obvious reaction is to take less risk. it is difficult, especially on the banks. for now, we think it is better to be a little more cautious. over the long-term, it could move higher, but i think in the short-term, that makes a lot of sense. michael, give us a sense of the job situation. it is 1% of the overall employee ing.of at commerzbank, perhaps an air of trying to cut costs for

deutsche. michael: i think they are trying to show they are executing on their plan, and doing so in a quick manner to bring costs out. john cryan has laid out this job cutting plan last year. and there was some concern that it might take some time to get the labor situation in germany where they could start cutting the jobs. it seems like they could make progress. they had an original agreement earlier in the summer, the latest news with another thousand jobs. they are going to be able to take out some of their headcount. is toxt piece of it simplify the technology side of their business so they can bring some costs out of there as well. guy: low rates. michael, thank you very much. michael moore joining us from the bloomberg finance team. luca is going to stay with us. work our way toward the chancellor of exchequer's speech in birmingham later today, the pound is having a tough morning.

let's show you the numbers. we are back down to levels we saw in august, as you can see. a significant dip. nearly a 128 handle on the cable rate. a little pain this morning for those holding sterling assets. caroline: one of the worst performers. but the ftse looks like it could be called higher. coming up, pushing the button. you talked about it. theresa may says article 50 will be triggered next march, but reveals little about negotiation plans. we are live at a conservative party conference. the total value of negative yields in bonds reach nearly $12 trillion in fixed-income. and still to come, metals shine. base metals are back in the bull market. we get an analyst view on how long the run can last. ♪

caroline: just over 15 minutes until the market open, but no market opening in germany. it is unity day. pimco is worrying about asian debt after dollars sales fell to a record. want to lock in lower financing costs as the average yield premium falls near the lowest since 2007. pimco says asia plus credit is running faster than economic growth and it does not fix effect leverage -- does not

expect leverage to grow. ceo says consolidation is good for the industry. we spoke to him in hong kong. >> in general, we have always said that if there was an interest and a right partner coming around, we are open to acquisition. but i cannot speculate on specific cases. sebastian: club med is planning to build resorts in china. the company will target multigenerational families who live close to major cities and want to escape. ofthere is a limited number secondary homes. at the same time, the cities are even bigger, with pollution. and toneed to go outside escape to activities in nature is even greater than we have elsewhere. is all.n: that

guy: the pound has fallen. the british prime ministers saying she is going to begin the brexit text -- brexit process by the end of march. theresa may will invoke article 50 of the lisbon treaty to take the nation out of the european union. chancellor philip hammond addressing delegates and colleagues. the conservative party conference is in germany -- in birmingham. walk us through the news about the timing and what we are going to get in terms of the structure of the crisis that is going to take us toward the brexit. anna: we heard a lot about the timing yesterday. in morning. a lot about timing. march 17 is the latest date at which the u.k. will trigger article 50 of the lisbon treaty. that sets us up to leave the eu by march 2019 at the latest. we heard a lot about article 50 yesterday and about the fact that it will actually be triggered, which maybe gives you

a sense of some of the conversations that maybe were happening behind-the-scenes amidst the far right of the party in the run-up to the conference. -- brexitns breakfast and we are going to make a success of it. we heard that from theresa may. this is what she told us on timing. may: there will be no delays in invoking article 50. we will invoke it when we are ready, and we will be ready soon. we will invoke article 50 no later than the end of march next year. anna: really sounding every bit the brexiteer for delegates and media gathered in the room. she went on to tell everybody andt the great repeal bill, laws to make sure there is no gap when the u.k. community is removed from the eu books. she promised to preserve workers rights. we have a lot we need to know

about the end goal. we just have timing and process so far. caroline: and indeed, what would be created? give me a sense of -- everybody is using the terms hard and soft brexit. any idea of where we are going in terms of access to the single market? in the mediaators and the way we like to talk about these subjects run hard and soft -- she talked about there being a false dichotomy between the issue of immigration and access to the single market. she said all businesses and the business lobby wanting clarity on what those two things are going to look like. she said that is a false dichotomy. brexit, shet perhaps imagines a medium path in between. this is how she would like us to characterize the debate. there is noer may: such thing as a choice between soft brexit and hard brexit. the line of argument in which

soft exit amounts to some form of continued eu membership and hard brexit is a conscious decision to reject trade with europe recently a false dichotomy. whether people like it or not, the people voted to leave the eu. that means we are going to leave the eu. today, attention turned to the economy. chancellor philip hammond will be speaking later today. deficit is that the unsustainable. it looks as if -- he has been saying this this morning -- there will be a couple of years, perhaps even longer, where businesses have to cope with uncertainty. we spoke to a guest earlier on "countdown." we talked about a slow-motion car crash, and he is looking for philip hammond to give us clues to how fiscal strength can be loosened to give the economy the room that might need in the years ahead. guy: anna edwards in birmingham. much indeed.y

plenty more to come from the conservative party conference. we will have coverage on bloomberg across the platform and what philip hammond has to say later on. the chancellor is currently on ,he u.k. media, talking to itv saying everything is up for discussion when it comes to eu negotiations. the asset management chief strategist still with us on set. if the u.k. walks away from the single market, talk to me about the shock that will be for your. until now, the assumption was that the u.k. will remain in the common market. from what we have heard yesterday, i think the risk is leave the common market. there are big risks for the u.k. economy, but also repercussions in europe. there are elections in france and germany. it is a little too early. the risks are high not only for the u.k., but for continental europe. caroline: if you are talking

wcrs, you will see the pound is the worst-performing major currency this morning. should it be this much lower? is there this much of a shock that we will be triggering article 50 by the end of march? luca: the town obviously has been much weaker recently, but it is not at a level that is uncommon by valuation metrics. i think there is a little bit of downside. it depends on what it is going to do -- on what the fed is going to do. if the dollar will get a little stronger, the pound will be under pressure. i think the downside is not massive. guy: how big a risk factor is this over the next couple of years? we have got two years, more or less, in terms of negotiation structure. how much of a discount does that put on european assets? luca: european assets have been underperforming. i think the point here for europe is more, i think, what is going to happen in france and ermany than in the u.k.

negotiations will take quite a lot of time. , andnk elections in france of december, and in germany next year are even more important. caroline: so much political risk. luca paolini will be staying with us. we look at corporate movers. finance a focus. i.t. concerns cutting thousands of jobs. and deutsche bank will not trade in germany today. it is unity day. we look at the broader sector. ♪

guy: we are minutes away from the european equity market open. bet that the a big u.k. will maintain its position in some way. asset managers have an easier time if we were to cnx it from the single market from the u.k. but bill gross is going to london, it seems. but denver is where janus is based. interesting to see how this moves around. he is an active manager. janus changing its business model as it deals with low-cost trekkers. caroline: fascinating. you see cost cutting in the banking sector. ing -- we had commerce a on

friday. ing will be cutting staff. scherzer unlikely to move too much of the back of this. there is still a significant number lost in the netherlands, where they will see a 10% cut in their staff base over the next five years. it is all about digital transformation, as it was at commerzbank. but the digital sector will not be moving. we have a day of rest, unity day celebrated in germany. deutsche bank still in the eye of the storm as we see concerns about italy and their behavior there. and indeed washington. what will that bring? guy: that is going to be interesting. we are going to watch that develop. a quick question to you. who would you put your money on, the asset managers or -- who is going to win out? luca: in the past few years, being a passive manager has been quite positive, because you have

had fiscally very strong returns. i think going forward, with much more activity and lower returns, i think it is the time for active management. guy: interesting. ♪

guy: good monday morning. i am guy johnson here in the city of london. we are not all here. caroline hyde in berlin. we are moments away from the start of european trading. caroline: the deutsche bank drama continues. the german lender is said to be ready to cut 8000 jobs. this as it faces fresh charges in italy. the question -- can john cryan do a deal with the doj in washington this week? ing.uts at the dutch lender plans to slash 7000 jobs, around 30% of its workforce. money manager merger. janus capital combines with

henderson global, ringing total assets to more than $320 billion. at the open.tion and pulling the brexit trigger. prime minister theresa may says she will invoke article 50 by the end of march next year. we are live at the tory party conference. germany is shut. guy: germany shut for today. is tradingck out it in the united states. the german market is not trading today, but we are seeing london sparking a little higher. a little bit more than 0.1%. we will see how paris opens as well. a lot of individual stock stories moving. anderson, deutsche bank later. , deutsche bank later. the pound is maybe what is happening with the london market -- the pound is being pummeled.

>> there is definitely a shift. the treat from anp that the ultimate fine for deutsche bank might come in at just over $5 billion as opposed to $14 billion gave a preview financials and to sentiment in the market. seven days ago, we came into mark and the view was, there is no backstop in terms of politics. deputy vice chancellor from germany is surprised that a model which invokes risk as your business model is complaining about the risk of the market. dying a quarter. germany is closed today. we are waiting for this opening sweep to come through. merger mania is out there, in .erms of henderson when it comes to the perspective of china, the pmi, the pricing managers index, it is standing at a two-year high. that is with stimulus last week. keep an eye on sterling. on,ess a little bit earlier we talked about a slow market --

so much in car crash in terms of the potential impact of brexit. the euro sterling should make it to around 0.90. we are just away from that 31 euro. short positions are rising. this is the first week. first signwe saw the of the 23rd, when the market raised its short position on the line which from theresa may. some are assuming it means more of a heart brexit. money coming out of the bond market. another beautiful indication of what is going on in the world of bloomberg. barclays aggregate bond market. 6% more negative yields out ofre than at the start september. the world of negative yields is rising. let us talk about stocks to watch.

janus capital talking about its merger with henderson. flushsee if we have got a price on a couple of other stocks. we are expecting a little bit of a reprieve. guy: we are looking for a henderson.f a vote for the u.k. in some ways. going to be taking a company away from it. capitalapital -- janus with that merger. it will have around $320 billion in assets, $600 billion in market cap, and $110 million in facilities. let us go to l.a., where we are joined by john gilson. talk to me about the logic of this, the industrial logic behind this deal. why do we want to put these

businesses together? they have come from injury footprints. henderson is heavy in europe. us is u.s. with asia exposure. their products do not overlap. they complement each other geographically and in product diversification. product: diversification -- what does it say about the path forward for these asset managers? we know henderson will the list in the united kingdom -- will delist in the united kingdom. what about the united states? of assetre is a list managers that is down 17% this year. their stock did very well over the last few years as they tried to do deals with different partners, especially the daiichi japanese insurance company. they got up more than 60%. but the general challenge for a

lot of these money managers -- active money managers, stock beat the- they cannot markets. investors are putting more of their money with passive managers, mitchell funds and etf's. guy: janus capital is famous for another name, bill gross. joined in 2014 after leaving pimco. how does this transaction changes role? does it change anything for him, do you think? this it shows they hired strong guy, and so far at least he has not attracted that much money. whichages $1.5 million, is pretty much money in the real world. half of that money, almost, is his personalm fortune. 700 million he put in their last year. the fund has not done much to move the needle for janice.

-- janus. bill gross makes millions. but the money has not followed him there. bloomberg news --orter john gilson gittlesohn. luca, give us an idea if this is a good deal? guy: is aggregation now necessary in asset management? luca: we see some more acquisition from the u.s., just before the devaluation. i think the asset management industry is under pressure. i think it makes a lot of sense that this kind of activity will take place, especially under asset managers. you be looking at u.k. assets right now?

the pound is down. the town is getting pummeled again. do we look and see what is good for cherry picking out of london right now? luca: i think we are over risked. it is different for u.k. bonds that are very expensive. stocks, we are not concerned about that. we are concerned about the impact on brexit for europe, but not much for u.k. stocks. what about the potential for m&a in general? is this an area you are expecting to be able to invest preemptively? luca: m&a picked up last year. it was the same for ipo's and simple buybacks. i think in europe we have already seen the peak. i think if you have a pickup in terms of profits and confidence is back, you may have what we see in every cycle. guy: stay with us. we will talk u.s. politics with you, of course. look up our leaning -- luca p

aolini. caroline: we bring in the numbers in spain, france, italy, and germany this hour. we talk the world's favorite investment that yields less than nothing, over $11 trillion of it. and the metal bowls are back after being crushed for years. metric gives us the light. ♪

guy: welcome back.

you are watching "on the move." we need to talk what is happening with the pound, a significant move. from the previous low close, we are now at 1.2856. that was the previous. that was the close. we have taken that out. we are now trading at 1.2875. this is when we hit the lows in august. we have come through that. jumping over a candlestick. wasn intraday basis, below 1.2798. that is the absolute low. we are not quite there yet. basis, we areng now at lowe's we have not seen. not in a very long time. caroline: check out other u.k. assets on the move, one in particular, henderson asset management shooting up 15%.

comes and raise the united kingdom. up 15%, the performer on the stoxx 600. really the best performer. so is financial services. u.k. assetng managers in vogue amid that particular merger news. on the downside, it is the banks again. the spanish, the italian companies are really seeing trouble. germany is shut. unity day. let us go to sebastian. the pound fell after the british prime ministers said she will pull the trigger on brexit by the end of march. she will invoke article 50 of the lisbon treaty, starting a nearly two-year process to take the nation out of the european

union. the industries have asked for guidance on how the you cable trade with its biggest partner. uk chancellor will make his first major speech, to discuss a goal for fiscal surplus by the end of the decade. speech at these a conservative party conference later to stress the need for a new plan to manage the nation's finances in a pragmatic way. about 5008o cut hundred jobs in belgium and the netherlands over five years to reduce costs. -- about 5800 jobs over five years. chief financial officer patrick flynn says the investment in tech will impact jobs. patrick: as we invest in a digital transformation, we will continue to invest another 800 million to our digital strategy -- it does unfortunately mean less jobs. but i think the important point

is, we have very strong commercial momentum and growing profitability. we are growing our aro we -- ro.e. on the back of increasing capital ratios. sebastian: the large manufacturer sentiment index expectations.elow spinning across all large companies is expected to rise 6.3%. than 26 hundred journalists and analysts in 126 countries -- this is bloomberg. less than zero. the unprecedented surge in the market for bonds with negative yields. the value in the bloomberg barclays index jumped 6% in september, $211.6 trillion. $11.6aolini -- to trillion.

look at paolini, is this sustainable? luca: the nominal gross picking up -- there is no reason for that to happen. this is the critical driver of bos. it was 51.5 in a survey. so expansion about that 50 threshold, rising more than had been anticipated for the manufacturing sector. --lain why there is also yet negative yielding bonds in spain and italy. spain seems to be turning its economy around. in italy, the referendum and bank risk -- should we see negative yields there? luca: i think there is a huge search for yields. i think investors are not worried too much about spain. they are not worried much about italy as long as bond yields remain low. there is no shock in the global

economy there is still demand for this kind of bond. everyone says italy is too low, but investors are still looking for yield. take whatever gives a positive yield, very close to zero. guy: how many of your clients are thinking of moving into illiquid assets -- bond proxies. on the more risky end of the spectrum -- a few years ago, you ,ould have had, on high yields on investment grade what you now have on high-yield. the world is completely wrong in terms of the pricing we all used to know and love. nevertheless, that is what we all live in. how are you thinking about aviation and all the weird and wonderful things that surround illiquid assets? luca: this is only one trend. we see a lot of quality stocks. you see that in very high quality stocks. i know, it is not great.

properties -- you can apply this in logic. property is very expensive, but you still get a 3%, 4% yield, which is very strong. that is what investors are looking at right now. caroline: talk to us about corporate's. you say the credit market cycle is turning. time to get out of corporate debt? even some of the businesses there have negative yields luca: . -- negative yields. luca: the worst is behind us, especially in the u.s. receipt tightening of conditions. if the return would be positive in the asset class, we feel we are probably at the end of this huge rally in credit. you are seeing that in stocks right now. -- thee we talking that stocks you have just been talking about, the low-volume, low beta, high-yielding stocks

everyone has fallen in love with over the past few years -- is it going to be on the cyclical end of the spectrum? is it going to be the areas that are unloved that will see the bounce and will be taking money rotating out of those bond proxies? luca: there was a fantastic ,ally, the strongest since 2010 last month. we are focusing on stocks that are cyclical but less exposed to rising bond yields. tex, industrials. it is less honorable to rising bond yields because they have enough cash. pickupll benefit from a in global growth. guy: we'll talk about u.s. politics in the next block. up next, the markets and the election. we break down the latest news out of the u.s. and the election and what it means for investors. or 10 programs. "saturday night live" had its best debut in eight years.

alec baldwin playing trump. alec: why are we talking about this woman? we should be talking about the important issues, like rosie o'donnell and how she is a fat loser. everyone agrees with me. i just wanted to bring that up in a presidential debate. my own volition. ♪

caroline: 21 minutes into your

trading day. let's talk u.s. now. donald trump will not release any new tax information, according to two people familiar with the matter. it comes after "the new york claimed aorted he $916 million loss in 1999 which allows him to pay no federal income tax for almost two decades. donald trump went on to attack mrs. clinton, referencing her recent bout of pneumonia. -- trump: here is the woman see is supposed to fight all of these different things, and she cannot make it 15 feet to her car. give me a break. give me a break. [cheering] caroline: now the latest polls show hillary clinton has a slight edge over trump. you can follow the polls on elecgo on bloomberg.

, how much of a risk -- how are you factoring in the risk for a u.s. election? luca: we have seen with brexit it is dangerous to underestimate political risk. what we all saw is that markets tend to be surprised and react, and then go back to the previous trend. i think for the u.s., obviously the risk is higher than it is for brexit, for global stocks. our view is that the best way to do with that is to de-risk, but also to buy some gold. we also feel that the best way to do it also is to be not very exposed to anything related to bond yields. bond yields could go higher. guy: what me through what a trump victory would look like in terms of market reaction. luca: i suspect the first reaction would be a shock, market probably falling.

in a few days, the market would innk, the fed will not hide december. guy: the reaction after a couple of days? wait obviously, we have to on what trump will say. i think it is possible the market will have this kind of panic and then rally. caroline: give us a sense of your emerging-market bets surrounding u.s. politics. mexican assets seem linked with how trump does or does not, but you are still committed to mexican bonds. luca: i think the idea is mainly to have a currency which is extremely cheap in a country with pretty low inflation and solid growth. --s linear valuation emerging markets, we have been reducing our exposure over the last few months. we have seen a massive rally. we are seeing some kind of peak in europe and china.

with the risk of winning the elections, it makes sense to reduce our exposure. guy: are you worried about trade? that seems to be the risk everybody is talking about. we would see a slowdown in global trade. the friction would increase. as a result, the global economy would suffer. we are already seeing a negative neutral rate in europe. you can see that elsewhere as well. luca: global trade has been pretty much flat over the last two years. you see what france is saying. with deutsche bank, all these factors we have to consider -- this is probably one of the biggest risks that is difficult to measure. thes probably one of biggest risks to the economy, the next six months. caroline: rank the risks for us. visit banks first at the moment? i think the biggest risk

is, the election in the u.s., is the fed. of riskink some kind coming from china, the property market. political risk can happen all the time. there is obviously the italian referendum and elections here. but the major risk currently is the u.s. elections and policy by the fed. guy: talk about europe. we have the italians, the dutch, the germans, the french. what are the probabilities of one of those throwing up a kind of, out of the distribution fringes kind of outcome? luca: this week could go in a bad way for a market. but if you look at what happened in january of this year, there is a situation where the political risk in europe would --the banks are absolutely

in january, it was china slowing down cigna vacantly. the italian referendum, earnings are solid. great to see you. thanks for spending so much time with us. ♪

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guy: welcome back. let's talk about how trading is going. we are 31 minutes into the sessions morning. remember, germany is closed. have swapped it out for the italian market. not much movement, except what is happening surrounding the ftse 100, which is definitely on the move. we have big ongoing moves in the british pound. 31 year lows this morning. we are continuing to move lower. come over here. i will show you the cable rates on my screen. now51 is where we are trading.

there is the drm crisis. there is the imf bailout. of at historical levels here. let's put it that way. this is having a positive effect on the ftse 100. 1.2852. just before the chancellor of exchequer gives a speech in birmingham and delivers his speech at the conservative party conference, after his boss, theresa may, announced that brexit article 50 will be triggered by the end of march next year. that is what is happening in terms of the market story, and it is feeding into what is happening with sterling. caroline: maybe a little bit of a weaker pound ongoing would make m&a even more appetizing. it is already happening in "on the move." sinceson, biggest rally 2009. it searches 16%. it isall it a merger, but a merger with janus capital in

the united states. it is fueling appetite for the entire asset management sector. financial services, the best .erforming group keep an eye on aberdeen asset management as well. and appetizing that, particularly with the weaker pound. ing group up by just over 0.1%. to go atrs of people the bank. 7000 jobs could be affected by cost-cutting. they look to ramp up digitization. that does mean fewer jobs. ing was well flagged. we were expecting a big number today. it came. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. sebastian: more on the janus story. the fund manager is recommending a merger with henderson global. it would be called janus-henderson global investors and have more than $320 billion of assets, a market cap of $6

billion. there is a plan to the list shares -- to delist shares in london. issuance surged. borrowers want to lock in lower financing costs as the average yield premium falls near the lowest since 2007. they say asia's credit is rising faster than economic growth. the world's largest container alliance says it is open to acquisitions the right suitors,. the ceo said consolidation is good for the industry. we spoke to him and hong kong. >> we have always said that if there was an interest and the right partner coming around, we are open to acquisitions. club med is planning to build as many as 15 resorts in china under its midrange brand.

the ceo says the company will target multigenerational families who live close to major cities and want to escape. >> there is a limited number of secondary homes. at the same time, the cities are even bigger, with a certain degree of pollution. so the need to go outside and to kind of escape in activities in nature is even greater than we have elsewhere. sebastian: that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: thank you, seb. john cryan is scheduled to plan to washington this week for the international monetary fund world bank meetings. he may also use the trip to continue negotiations with the doj, the justice department, to settle ongoing investigations into his bank, according to people with knowledge of the matter. for more, we are joined by christopher wheeler, bank analyst at atlantic equities. good morning to you.

john cryan has to come back with a deal that works for everybody this week. is that job number one? can he get it done this week? christopher: given the department of justice, i am a bit shocked it is moving quickly, but perhaps that shows how quickly the department of justice realizes this is to deutsche bank and the financial system as a whole. it seems to me all the indications are that john will have some kind of deal on the table this week. i find that quite surprising, because normally, as we have seen with royal bank of scotland, these things can go on for a long time. ofoline: give us a sense $5.4 billion that has been floated. that still would put deutsche bank in need of a capital raise. christopher: it will probably wiggle through. it has $5.5 billion in reserves against litigation. -- 10.8% ratio would come down a bit. they have until january 2018 to

meet the requirements. tohink john would like slowly but surely revealed that capital position, having taken this additional hit, without actually going to shareholders. as we all know, any deal you had to do in the equity markets would be massively diluted with where the share price is sitting at the moment. were john, if you cryan right now and you were thinking about how to deal with bonuses, how to deal with c omp, all the issues that people who make money at deutsche bank think about a great deal, how would you balance that story out? a lot of people are standing around water coolers right now, thinking, maybe it is time to go. christopher: the good news is, a lot of those people might have then there for some time, with unvested stock that is now trading at a level where anybody who buys them out is not going to pay them much money.

that would be a reason to stay and see the stock price recover. has thisme time, john difficult task. i need to keep my top people because the most important thing is making a massive effort to getild the platform, revenue coming in the door. maybe twoer side, in years, i am starting to produce decent returns. it is going to be a tough call. caroline: it does not stop with the department of justice. this is not the only allegation that are facing at the moment. you heard over the weekend the allegations about potentially manipulating the market to do with much to pesky -- to do with an italian bank. christopher: they still have other pieces of litigation out there. the biggest concerns are, can you get the fine on the mortgage-backed securities?

he has to protect his revenue base. thursday and friday, all of your business is under pressure. you have global transaction banking, asset management. their will be scratching heads, making sure they want to do business with deutsche. guy: how long does john have? luca: he needs a lot of energy. this is a 24/7 job he has at the moment. which obviously heat signed off on last year. he wants to get through that two years of digging and, taking the costs out, getting the capital leverage correct, and coming out the other end as a bank capable of being when germany wants, which is a national champion.

i think john has time. we know he under promises, he over delivers. he will be given quite a bit of rope. caroline: is it time to take a punt on deutsche stock? -- christopher: i think if you want to take a six-month grow -- six-month view, the interesting thing is the ups and downs in between. there are still concerns around the balance sheet of the bank and what went on last week. bankiquidity, the deposit just uncomfortable about making sure the capital position does not delete a share offer. guy: thank you very much indeed, christopher wheeler, bank analyst at atlantic equities. next, what is happening with the british pound and what is going on in birmingham at the u.k. tory party conference.

the reason may has announced a timeline for brexit talks. may has announced a timeline for brexit talks. we are joined by the financial secretary of the u.k. treasury. do not miss that conversation.

caroline: a beautiful morning

here in berlin, peaceful because it is unity day in germany. bank holiday a plenty. people are off work. sun is shining. look at the pound slumping today after theresa may made it clear that march 2017 is when we would officially see her go for article 50, with the process of brexit getting. oil fell from its highest close in six weeks as u.s. producers increased drilling and iran signaled it is looking to increase exports. by use of -- y usef. non-opecsilience of supply has been in the side of plans to dominate the global oil market. we are seeing the state of play in the u.s.. producers have been adding for the fifth consecutive week.

this chart lays it out nicely. you are looking at the rate to 425, up by seven. i would like to point out that 184 have been added since july. we are at levels that are the highest since february. i would also put in the wti reference line for you. the question remains, how many more rigs can come in at the current price in burma? and when are the larger drillers going to be confident enough to bring the rigs back into market? big enoughale is not or fast enough to affect opec plans. the cracked within the opec group -- according to the irna news agency, they want to increase exports from 2.2 million barrels per day to 2.30 5 million barrels per day. way beginning to doubt the data is collected about

production quotas. plenty to digest. we will see what direction traders take from there? guy: a great chart on what is happening in the oil markets. waiting to see what is happening with italian pmi data that is about to hit the monitor. we will flash it up for you. coming through at 51 even. a little stronger than expected. not a bad number. a bit of a beat on the manufacturing side. the story affecting the british pound is emanating from birmingham. rish prime minister theresa may confirming she will trigger article 50 by the end of march 2017. a little bit later, we will hear from the chancellor of the exchequer, philip hammond. cannot wait to find out what we learn in that speech. in the meantime, let's get back to the conference, back to birmingham, back to anna. anna: thank you very much. good to see you. the conservative party conference, we heard from theresa may about the timing and

the process. not much detail on the relationship between the eu and u.k. after a brexit. jane ellison joins us. she is financial secretary to the u.k. treasury. great to have you on the program. philip hammond has been saying that business might face two years or more of uncertainty. -- theer years uncertainty is going to be longer, isn't it? it will be many years of trying to negotiate a new relationship with europe. know the business community are concerned about uncertainty. they always are. that is understandable. what the prime minister did yesterday was give some detail around the timetable for an orderly process of leaving the eu, delivering on the instructions we have had from the british people. but there are areas where we can give greater certainty. the final medals of the british economy are so much stronger than a decade ago. 2010 onward, difficult decisions have been made to return our

finances to much better order. that is something business can be certain on, that we are not letting up on that to put the public finance in good order. -- that is a state competence. we have the most competitive corporate tax rate in the g-20. anna: that can be controlled by the treasury. but if you are a business, they have been complaining they want to see more detail about the end goal. what relationship are we going for? , thinking, dosan i invest in the u.k. or not, there is a suggestion that if they do invest, could there be compensation if they lose out? is that something the treasury is considering? jane: we are listening to all the points that key businesses in the u.k. are making. continued talking to people and listening to concerns. we have put together what will be our negotiating position.

the prime minister has been very clear that we want to be an international beacon for free trade. we want to continue to be able to trade with key markets. that includes the european market. and we want to get the best deal possible for goods and services. i would also say for some of these large businesses, they would make vital business investment decisions for the long term in a matter of weeks question mark it has only been a matter of weeks since the vote. the prime minister once you take time to listen, to get the outline of that relationship right. we do not want to rush into this. the want to get it right for the u.k. economy. listening to the presentations here in birmingham, it did sound as though the brexiteers are in table.along the cabinet it looks like the businesses get the best deal that is available once we have immigration policy. is that a fair characterization?

jane: i think that is a false economy. obviously, people are discussing matt and playing big elements of a potential negotiating position against each other. the reality is, we have said we want to be able to control who comes into the country. that is clearly one of the key messages the british people delivered. one if we do not keep the economy growing. anna: it is a dichotomy many member states would .2. jane: a lot of people, straight after the vote, said, are you going to have a norway deal or a switzerland deal is to mark britton is a different economy -- or a switzerland deal? itain is a different economy. we need to understand what the key elements are. we have been clearer about some of those key elements. we do want to have more control. that was a clear message that people delivered. we absolutely want to keep the

economy growing. we have come a long way from 2010 and want to keep stimulating economic growth. anna: thank you for joining us at the conservative party conference in him. financial secretary to the u.k. treasury, of course. caroline: fascinating interview. great stuff throughout the morning at the conservative party conference. the pound continues to plummet on the back of that revelation. that transparency -- we kind of knew from theresa may it was going to be in the first quarter. she made clear it would be triggered by march 2017. we have french pmi data slightly beating. it is less than 50. it is not expansion. we are seeing manufacturing data in september at 49.7, better than the 39.5 outlined in the survey. keep an eye on the euro at the moment. trading flat. bulls arehe metal back. what is to come in the rest of 2016?

guy: 53 minutes past the hour. q3 was marked by our performance in the mining sector. the second-best performer. we thought it would be the first. index which tracks six key

metals and was a bull market. quite an impressive chart. first of all, i think it is impressive because of the scale of the downturn we saw, and the fact we have this very nice channel that is taking it back up. back where, is the question. we are joined by the head of mental resources for london investec. nice to see you. try to answer my question. where does that go next? just: i think it is all about china. china's stimulus cause this rally, i would argue. will china continue to stimulate their economy? it is always anybody's guess. in that basket of metals, zinc has been the strongest performer. that continues to go up. tin has been an external performer. nickel has been subject to issues in the philippines. i think thataking,

is a strong upward trend. it depends on where the dollar goes. that is quite difficult to determine. stay committed to metals. is it better to be across other assets exposed to this rally, like the miners? have had think they this uptick in metals, iron ore, and coal. it is fair to say nobody expected that to happen. that has been directed by china stimulating their economy. the miners did not see this coming. some of the big miners continue to wonder could be difficult times ahead. generally speaking, what is certain to say is that mining companies are in much better shape than they were this time had worrieshere we about heavily indebted mining companies and they were poor performers. we are in a totally different situation. they have recapitalized balance

sheets. they have done a lot to save themselves. guy: in the individual metals, which one is being managed the best? we are seeing capacity being taken out in the way we are with others. do you need to be careful with what you are picking? jeremy: you have to say zinc. we saw action to cut capacity, cut production. to a large extent, that resulted in that rally. the best.ing managed glencore is the largest producer and will continue to oversee that market. caroline: fascinating disgusting -- discussing a renaissance in the metals area. hall we justemy wrat had breaking numbers. out of germany. a litany of numbers. the key is to see how the manufacturing outperforms.

notable that france, italy, and spain -- guy: 28.56 on the cable rate. up next, francine lacqua. jon ferro and i will be on bloomberg radio. ♪

francine: deutsche bank on the defense. the lender says the job cut as john cryan heads to the u.n. pulling the brexit trigger. the uk prime minister says they should invoke article 50 in the first quarter of 2017. she is leaning toward a hard brexit. the pound weakens. money manager merger. janus capital is to join forces with henderson group creating a firm with 320 lien dollars in assets. -- 320 billion dollars in assets. ♪ francine: welcome to "the pulse."