john: news cycles between now and election day re: commodity.

he remains in race. help toblican nominee make last week a truly horrible -- she made last week a truly horrible one. nominee declared a nearly $1 billion loss on his 1995 income tax returns. the loss would have allowed him to limit his income tax burden over many years, maybe down to zero. with the headline clinton wasted no time bringing it up today at a rally. ms. clinton: in the debate he said it was smart to avoid paying taxes. yesterday his campaign was bragging it makes him a genius. here's my question. what kind of genius loses a billion dollars in a single year? this is trump to a tee. he has taken corporate excess

and made a business model out of it. he abuses his power, games the system puts his own interest ahead of the countries. it's trump first and everyone else is last. mark: he gave extended compared marks on this matter at a rally. thetrump: the unfairness of tax laws is unbelievable. it is something i have been talking about despite being a beneficiary. i am working for you, not for trump. i have legally used the tax laws to my benefit and to the benefit of my company. my investors and my employees. brilliantlyhave used those laws. john: that is not the only area

where he is on defense. and some article out describe crass and sexist behavior i trump. -- by trump. he rented office space to an arabian bank with purported ties to hezbollah and hamas and today we learned that on friday the new york attorney general eric schneiderman sent him a letter letting him know the foundation -- ordering it to seize fundraising immediately. donald trump does not have all the many more new cycles left a burn. ete burning question, can he g off the defensive end onto the offense of before the debate on sunday and if so, how? isk: the public polling mostly bad for him. there is a few bright spots but he has lost friends at since the

debate. he is on the defensive and the debate performance is what set it off. ,nd so i think the press barring some huge disclosure about hillary clinton i think trump will be on the defensive. he can claw his way back that it does wait for the debate. john: here is how this tech problematic. that angle.suing the argument would be powerful if he put his tax returns out and said here is the waste in which i manipulated the system. i will put all that to an end when i am president. people like me would not be able to do what i did here but we are still left as the question, what else is in the tax returns, and other -- what is the actual story here and that is why those stories, those questions will persist over this week and keep

him on defense all the way to sunday. john: most of the stories involving the foundation reflect very poorly on trump's attorneys . whoever was doing the legal work for the foundation, they made a lot of mistakes. i doubt trump was strictly involved in many of those decisions but the lawyers should have stopped him. the same types of people, lawyers and accounts would have been involved in handling his tax returns so trump now even more needs to release his returns because while the story does not allege he did anything illegal or that they push the -- has shownis that he hires lawyers and accounts who are not careful in what they do. john: when you hire bad people you are responsible. as someone who runs the charitable foundation you just can't lay it off on the attorneys and the accountants. if he keeps not releasing tax returns after this revelation it

makes people wonder, what else is a problem in the tax returns? the possibility of a revelation involving the clintons. at 3 a.m. tomorrow morning eastern time, julian assange is expected to make when his group is billing as a major announcement by video. the exact content is unclear but his desk he has long published -- he has promised to release documents about hillary clinton. this cryptic message, i have will confidence that he educate the american people soon , roger stone tweeted. this will be the thing that takes clinton down and allows trump to go ahead, it is alleged. what are they most worried about? john: they are worried about the

wikileaks thing. unless youipulate know something i don't, we have -- ina what might be the the documents. unless those of the layout was -- there is something that is genuinely scandalous. they are focused on her health. came out and looked strong and healthy, robust, confident. mark: she did a somersault. that was kate mckinnon. of howve down a pattern to back. does the staff know everything? and it would be fascinating to know if her room knows what is in her 30,000 deleted e-mails

for all we know wikileaks has access to. be it about yoga or about a wedding or about the foundation. john: they like to attack the credibility of the source. julian assange is a rich topic in that area. sympathy with a lot of to the extent american voters know who he is. they always divide their legal and political into different houses. the lawyers know everything and the political people often know very little and that is the problem. mark: if there is any controversy their first response will be this is an old story brought up by clinical enemies trying to distract from the real issues in this campaign. john: new scripted that very well. the overlooked policy issues of the presidential campaign after these words from our sponsors. ♪

john: welcome back. a new poll is looking at north carolina which remains an essential part of donald trump's narrow path to victory. our poll shows hillary clinton leading by just one percentage point. she is up 44 percent to 43% over trump and clinton is over -- up in a two-way race according to our poll. slightly tighter than another new poll where it shows the tar heel state, this is from a touch of quinnipiac surveys released this afternoon. take a look at this map. they have hillary clinton up by three points among likely voters in north carolina.

up five pointser in florida. 46 to 41% end up four points in pennsylvania. 45% to 40 1%. -- 41%. trump seems to be gaining ground. likely buckeye voters 47%-40 2%. there is one more poll and to show you. in new mexico, a state that would be considered safely stashed in clinton's column. a survey released shows clinton beating trump by four points. 35% to 31%. how is that possible you might ask because new mexico has been blue for long time. you have to think about gary johnson who is a two-time governor of the land of enchantment. he pulls a hefty 24% of likely voters in that pulls a looking at all that stuff, the queue pulls, our poll, the applicant journal poll, where does that

leave the electoral math and the electoral map? mark: trump has hollenback further than he was and he had pulls almost even with clinton where there was a plausible electoral college path. he must win florida and north carolina to have a chance. he is behind in the states. if you look at where she is in these polls, he can come back. particularly if gary johnson chance.ecent for trumped when he needs a combination of -- besides the and he needs three small states. is he needs to win both debates and for clinton to and heme big stumble or needs to perform day out and day and better. he will get tens of millions of votes, he will get over 200 electoral votes. john: the worrying thing is the

gary johnson boat is starting to collapse and you're saying it's a -- seeing it in some of these polls. at those small states that he has to put together if he is going to make a map. the new mexico thing. in nevada where he is ahead it looks like she is ahead. colorado it looks like she is ahead by a lot. new hampshire, she has always been stronger. ness of it, to see theseipping on all fronts, if i am in the trump campaign, i am scared. >> at she is the favorite, he has been hurt badly. we should not overreact, good week for him, a bad wait for her, he can get that close to parity but he will have the narrative. lost in all the

political sniping that has occurred are the major policy normally getould some attention in the coverage of any race to the white house. the new york times had a great front page story about the future of the affordable care act and on our website, a great colleague on the hillary clinton proposal to limit contracts to make it more difficult for workers and consumers to bring legal action against corporations. on the campaign trail, candidates have dipped a pinky toe into the policy war waters. he announced a cyber review team that will look at the issue of online security. clinton has unveiled plans for opportunities -- expanding opportunities for workers with disabilities. they do not get very much coverage. with 36 days to go, why has there been even less call -- policy coverage and is there

anything that can be done before election day? john: because we are suckers for the shiny object. i mean ourwe colleagues and us to some extent. they provide compelling, hilarious, of hauling theatre on most and it is hard to resist covering that stuff and focusing as we should. to cover policy when they do not give us policy experts. i'll we say if -- it is hard to cover policy the week before the new hampshire primary or super tuesday. there is always a big thing. the candidates did not take the summers off. not exempting ourselves, i will act in say that one of the great failures of this cycle was we let the candidates and the circus carnival freak show trump and of the clinton campaigns, more trump than clinton and say we need to

do 20 minutes on education. john: the campaigns do not focus on policy enough. clintons are buried on a website. clinton -- they are making it about temperament and they are not focused on the lack of policies. they're focused on his business record. we do not have much time left. it is still not too late. we could talk about health care. criminaltalk about justice reform. there are issues about that going on across the country. there are things that we could try to do and we should do. we all should do. to get a little bit of policy and before we get to the elections. voters will elect someone who has a huge influence on their lives. john: up next. you know who these two people are? find out after this. ♪

mark: everywhere you go people are thinking about the two men who will take the debate stage tomorrow night in virginia. i am kidding. it they are talking about other stuff as well including the mets. we send our bloombergpolitics team to times square to see what new yorkers and tourists know about the two guys, these two guys, the vice presidential running mate. do you know who these guys are? >> i do not. >> any ideas? no. .> no >> that is mitt romney. >> a ceo.

>> a newscaster. >> american football coach. >> a sports analyst. >> they look like they are in the golf world. >> do you know who that is? >> the vice presidential candidates. mike pence and tim kaine. >> i am not sure about the democrat. that is pence and i forget his name. >> that is so close. cane.se a >> do you know their name? tim kaine and prints or something. >> do you know his name? >> pence. >> tim kaine. >> which one?

>> this is trumps bp and this is hillary's vp. >> who do you think would win? >> this guy. he looks a little more intellectual. >> what words come to mind? >> a charmer. like a ladies man. himould you want representing you? >> going to london or beijing. putin would run rings around him. >> he seems more presidential. vice presidential. >> he has that stare. >> he looks winnable. hear that. love to >> he has a nice smile. looks can be deceiving but they look like nice people. >> distinguished looking. >> one thing wrong with both of them. they are politicians.

mark: both are experienced and both were considered safe picks. is this debate going to get a lot of attention? no one expected to be highly rated but it does matter. what is the best case scenario for the trump campaign and for clinton and kaine out of this debate. the job is to calm the electorate and get them call him to wrapped up simultaneously. he is not going to spend time reaching out to the center. he will consolidate the republican vote that is worried about where trump is right now. if he does that that will be a good debate. tim kaine has the opportunity to start to reach out and to exploit some of that same shakiness and reach out to republicans as they have been doing, to convince those women

who are shaky about trump and maybe more so after the last week to come over to the democratic side. mark: pence can show donald talk aboutt is done, changing washington and talk about the clintons mean part of the old guard. he can reach out to the republican base, there are a lot of republican activists and religious and economic conservatives who get them to see the light. i think -- and the last thing circuitn do is be a breaker. he can talk about the clinton has himin a way that singing out of the same hymn book is clinton. the other thing he can do is put pence on the defensive. e has been pretty skillful on tv interviews avoiding confronting some of trump's more out there statements. skillful he can

make pence on it and a way that is the story of the night. john: although mike pence is a conservative guy many people will say tim kaine should go after mike pence on his approaches on gays and lesbians in indiana. mikeob will be to pin pence on trump. they are both representatives of the guys at the top of the ticket, this is not about them. this is about them as stand-in's for their respective overlords, the nominees on the ticket. mark: you have to say that the clinton-pence team came out of the first debate not just with hillary clinton having performed better but most of the topics they wanted to cover got covered either because they were brought clintonster holt or skillfully brought them up. pence has the opportunity to bring up some of the things related to the clinton foundation or e-mails, some of the things about the obama -clinton record on foreign policy and put them out in a prominent way, as prominent aipac from as you can get and make them part of the

conversation between wednesday morning and the debate on sunday. of these guys are men of substance. they have been a governor for long time and one of the things that was on the basis of our earlier conversation disappointing about the first debate is that it was so devoid of substance. this could be an interesting debate. and icenot be fireworks cream and sodas that come out of the debate center but it could be something where they talk about stuff of real merit. mark: there had better be diet coke. i think both these guys are like and respected by the political establishment. both are preparing a ton. tim kaine is working and mike set an example. the trump campaign needs every bit of help and can get to convince donald trump that even though he is still drawing crowds and thousands of people he needs to impair -- prepare

for the next debate. if mike pence does better than tim kaine his folks can say to trump, tim kaine prepared, this -- this islt monfils the result and please prepare for the debate. next, a little strategizing with a couple of strategists after this word from our sponsors. ♪ . .

john: this is the time when we talk about a little strategically with the

strategist, republican style. she joins us from farmville, virginia, where the vice presidential debate will take place tomorrow. in rdc bureau, we have former trump advisor and current trump supporter, mary. how bad has the last week been for donald trump. in terms of his electoral prospects. has been bad. when the election has been about donald trump, he doesn't do well. the most telling numbers are the economy numbers. he was up 15 at the beginning of september. he's now at a virtual tie with hillary clinton, which is a huge swing in who voters trust to handle the economy. i don't necessarily think it was the debate, but it was a sustained look we have seen it donald trump and voters don't like it when it is about donald trump. when it's about hillary, they

don't like her. john: he is down eight on strong down sixive leader and on can better handle responsibilities of commander-in-chief. can't believe you're going to say last week was great for donald trump, but a valuate how series you think the threat is over what happened in the last seven or eight days. guest: if you look at this commie have to be a maze the polling numbers haven't dropped more. you lose the debate two to one all these public poll and only lose a point in a half? it is pretty stunning. a lot of this is a again. i know we have used that phrase over and over but it seems like it's going to be hard to shock the voters at this point. mark: what do you think donald trump's ceiling is in a four-way vote? barry: i think the winner is at

44 or 45. mark: do you agree? betting against donald trump on his ceiling has proven to be a poor bedtime and again. i think barry might be a point or two point slow but essentially, he is right. mark: i think trump can get to 45 nationally but i'm not sure he can get to 46 or 47. guest: look at ohio and he's at 47, so you can get there. turnout can add two or 3.2 these polls. you were in the holding room with mike pence tomorrow night and he said what's the one thing i need to accomplish, what would you tell him? was advising mike pence, the best he's was in the "wall street journal." should donald

trump turnover his tax returns, he should say yes. i turned mine over. if this is baked in and the election is about donald trump, mike pence would do himself a lot of favors down the road, in 2020, if he breaks with his top of the ticket and says i think he should turn over his tax returns, i turned over mine. but i don't think he will do that. mark: that is the silliest thing i've ever heard on this program. guest: that's the thing. mark: what should he actually do? guest: i think he should be the voice of reason on this ticket. mark: say he wants to help trump when guest: then he needs to make it about hillary clinton. but that is something the trump campaign has been unwilling to do. i don't want to ignore the question of the vice presidential debate because i think it could be interesting and have a small bit of clinical effect, but i want to look to the next presidential debate. if you were invited to work on

donald trump pasta debate prep, what would be your device? -- your advice? barry: the town hall format is vastly different. you can score points on friendliness in a town hall format. how he it's important interacts with the questioner and answer their question directly and then pivoted to something else. but it is an entirely different format which plays to his advantage little bit. describe the complexity involved. the two of them can step out from behind the podium. he is a big man and she's a woman. how volatile and dangerous is that territory when you get to them -- the two of them out there? guest: i'm not that worried. i agree that this format widely favors donald trump. he has better television skills,

better charisma on camera, so i think barring some catastrophe, this will leave his way. want to do better, the second debate might be the time to shine. should he get into hillary clinton's space? probably not. anything barring a poking her moment, i think he's fine. mark: if you look at the state trump needs to win, fewer the trump campaign, which one would be concerning you the most? guest: north carolina. where other republican senate candidates have been pulling ahead of donald trump. in thetrump is behind latest polling. i would be very concerned you're not doing better in a state like north carolina. look at ohio. he needs to look for that in these other states. why would donald trump be behind in a state mitt romney

won against barack obama? know: the one thing we that north carolina, florida, ohio and pennsylvania have in common is that today there are 200,000 fewer democrats in each of the states than there were four years ago. the underpinnings are pretty good, but i think he will do fine. for going to run some ads the first time. let's see what those ads do. i feel pretty good about it. thank you. you're great to come on. we will talk next about donald trump's rough weeks with a few of the reporters who cover him. if you are watching in washington, tc, you can listen to us on the radio, radio at 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

mark: for many of you, today is the first day back at work, but for reporters covering donald trump, they have been on the clock all weekend. joining us is bloomberg politics reporter kevin's rowley and katie turner is in pueblo, colorado. we're going to start with sound from the event donald trump had this afternoon where he talked about the unrest we have seen in some major american cities. mr. trump: we are a divided nation and each week, it seems we're getting more and more divided with race riots on our basis.on a monthly as somebody said, don't call them race riots, but that's what they are.

they are race riots and it's happening more and more. mark: some days it's not clear to me what message donald trump is trying to drive. what message is he on today? kevin: earlier today, he was discussing the unrest happening in our cities throughout the country but i think you hit the nail on the head because the past week for donald trump's ampaign, there has not been cohesive message. we have seen a little but when donald trump goes on twitter, the issue of follow the money and attacking hillary clinton for the clinton foundation or her wall street paid speeches all goes away and is overshadowed by something he says off teleprompter. that's a huge challenge for the senior aides that i speak with and it has really set them back. there's no way you can describe this moment other than

donald trump and the campaign should be feeling embattled. is that the atmosphere or is it something else? percent.e hundred the campaign realizes it is now or never and that's why you heard donald trump very much on teleprompter here in pueblo, colorado. we were told he was going to get deeper into his own personal intory and business history direct response to the nearly billion-dollar declaration he 1995 taxes. the campaign realizing they need to find a way to spin that. titleave been in full mode now for over seven days. it has been controversy after afterversy, scandal scandal, not just allegations of sexism but the taxes and the attorney general filing a cease-and-desist order on the trump foundation for not filing the correct paperwork.

the trump campaign is trying to push back on all fronts. what you heard today is donald trump trying to reframe the narrative and paint himself as an underdog in the 1990's who everyone was rooting against, someone they wanted to see fail when he was going through his difficulties in the 90's, losing a billion dollars. he says he was able to rebuild himself and bring himself back up. said over and over again. but we are 36 days until the election and donald trump is having a very hard time staying on message, let alone one coherent message. we will see how long this sticks and whether it's going to do anything for those undecided voters or whether those voters have decided they are going to go toward hillary clinton. mark: it sounds like he's trying to turn himself into the come

back kid. : who doesn't love a good comeback story? we have to look behind the says theyre the rnc have the appropriate ground game in place, but i have to be honest. the sources i'm speaking with in swing states like florida would paint a different picture. in addition to trying to put out always fires, there are operational questions about the political ground game of the trump campaign. anecdotally speaking, you talked to a lot of independent voters, we will have to see whether the polls reflected. the trump message on defense for his issue with the tax returns is he was able to be smart enough to beat the system and this is just another example of why the system is so messed up. to some small business owners, it simply a lesser of two evils

decision between hillary clinton and donald trump and i'm not ,ecessarily sure the tax issue we'll have to see if more comes out, but i'm not sure that will tovince independent voters turn their back on trump just yet. john: we are going to turn this in to a trump reporter triad by adding a political reporter from the "washington post and play some sound. here's how donald trump attacked hillary clinton and his rally in manheim, pennsylvania. mr. trump: i hear too many stories about pennsylvania, certain areas. i hear too many bad stories and we can't lose an election because of you know what i'm talking about. so go and vote and then go check out areas because a lot of that things happen and we don't want to lose for that reason.

lose, but we to especially don't want to lose for that reason. so go over and watch and watch carefully. -- she's woman supposed to fight all of these different things and she can't make it 15 feet to her car. give me a break. give me a break. think she's loyal to bill if you want to know the truth. john: those are just some of the highlight from that event. you were there and wrote a detailed, brilliant, evocative piece about it. tell us what it was like to be there and watch that spectacle unfold. have been to more than 100 donald trump rallies in the last year and in the last couple of weeks and months, he's gotten really good at staying on

message, reading from a teleprompter, sticking to the talking points his staff has given him. saturday night was an example of him just for getting all of that and letting loose and saying exactly what he's thinking. saying a lot of things i don't think we have ever heard a presidential candidate say at a rally before. this rally in particular, i had planned on writing an article about him seizing on comments hillary clinton made about bernie sanders'millennials supporters and why they are unemployed and why they like him. in one comment, she made about them living in their parents basements. his campaign sent out a statement saying he's going to give this statement tonight and sees on these comments. so i pre-wrote a story thinking that was going to be the news and i had to delete that story and write a new story because he

could not stay on message. you could just tell he was so angry and frustrated. mark: to what extent can we say the trump senior staff is currently frustrated as opposed to just accepting trump will be trump? katie: i think they are not frustrating, that would be surprising. they wanted to get on message why you seethat's these indications from the campaign that he is going to say this, that, or the other or stick closely to a message at the campaign rally. desire to make sure he is paired for the debate these three tweeting, the hillary clinton and doing an impression of her is not something that helps his image as someone who has the correct temperament to be president.

if the senior staff on the campaign is not frustrated, i'm not so sure, they must see different polling than the rest of us because that donald trump is not one that rates well with his own supporters. they laugh at it and think it's ask if this isu what their presidential candidate should be doing, they say it is a distraction. we don't think it helps them convince voters who might be unsure about him. the trump coverage trio is going to take some yoga breaths. when we come back, how'd don't trump seems to be preventing for the upcoming town hall debate after this. ♪

mr. trump: thank you for your bravery. i've heard your name mentioned many times. thank you for the question. i want to ask you one question. you have all of those aircraft landings on the carrier and i'm sure it's a very special talent. >> it's a talent you acquire if you start off with the basics. mr. trump: he puts it down a little bit. that's good. is he here? stand up. [applause] they really went after you. know you would be here. the world is changing. you're not allowed to pray before a football game. i thought it was horrible. i found was horrible. what did they do to you? sorry to take away from your question but it is an extent the should -- an extension of your question. that was donald trump, the

mellow yellow version this morning seeming to practicing some personal town hall moves. we're back with three reporters on the trump beat. re have jenna johnson, katie tu and kevin cirilli. what do you know about the ways in which that speech relates to the ways mr. trump is trying to write the ship as he heads into the second debate in st. louis? jenna: the campaign is trying to get him to practice more and be better prepared at the debate. but it is up to him if he wants to listen to the advice they have been giving him for quite a while now. ready.study and get last week, i was out on the trail with them the whole week and each of his speeches, he tackled one of the questions

that came up in the first debate and fumbled. a very directgive response to a comment hillary biason made about implicit and police officers and how the problem for everyone. rallye a response at the -- this morning at the town hall in virginia, he talked about cyber security, a question he seemed to fumble with at the debate. you can see how they are trying to get him prepared while he's out in public, getting used to talking about these things and the town hall format, i have not seen him take questions from an audience like that on his own terms in quite a while. mark: it has been quite a while. thank you for coming. donald trump talked to the people they're like you is

practicing for a town hall to feel the pain of the voters. atyou think trump will excel walking over to them and repeating their names, like i am doing now? kevin: i think the only time we have seen donald trump really in this format was on "the apprentice" and he had the situation there of having to fire people. he's going to be talking to people who are either going to hire or fire him. interact i've seen him with people over the past year, i have to be honest. much for youru so service. ?atie, it's katie, right you are a hard-working lady. tell us your thoughts. with: i have two agree kevin. the times i have seen him interact one-on-one with voters has not been inspiring. he is often very superficial and will walk up, say hello and have

small chit and walk away. i have not seen a conversation last for more than a few minutes. usually just says this is great and moves on. john: thank you all. we will be right back.

mark:mark: watch our coverage of the vp debate tomorrow. see you then. sayonara. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton. you're watching "bloomberg west." for the first time since copies of donald trump's 1995 tax returns were leaked, he is publicly addressing the issue.

trump: fixing our broken tax code is one of the main reasons i'm running for president. i have been saying from the beginning of this campaign how ridiculous, complex, and yes, unfair the tax system is. and son unfair system complex that very few people understand it. fortunately, i understand it. says hillary clinton donald trump represents the same rig system he is running to change. clinton: well millions of american families, including mine and yours, were working hard and paying our fair share, he was contributing nothing to our nation. mark: clinton addressed claims hem the trump campaign that was a business genius, saying "what kind of genius loses a billion dollars in a single year?" the price -- the vice presidential nominees will meet