>> we are moments away from the closing bell. stock market currency bubbles lowered this afternoon after retreats from extraordinary stimulus measures. [closing bell] i'm scarlet fu. joe: i'm joe weisenthal. matt: and i'm matt miller. scarlet: gold tumbling on speculation of a federal rate increase. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" scarlet: we break down what this means for markets with binky chadha. joe: the takeover of monsanto. we have the charts that you can't miss ahead of the earnings tomorrow. matt: before brexit, there was grexit. discussing the greek economy today and whether it has turned the corner. we begin with our

market minute. u.s. stocks have begun october, the month in the quarter, weather tends to be quite a bit of volatility, with back-to-back losses. moving higher, reflecting some anxiety. i think it's a little deceptive because while it doesn't seem like much, the story today was the brett of the selloff. everything getting hit on. joe: i will show you that -- matt: i will show you the story right now, using my eye. .- imap everything is red, with the exception of financials. once again, second day in a row this week, defenses getting hit the hardest. utility, telecom, tear he is, all down there. take a look at the winners on the s&p. are financials, like

hartford and northern trust, who did well today, and some ohio banks, keycorp, doing well today. optimism on an interest rate increase, it's not just the german banks getting hurt. joe: u.s. yields rising, stocks and bonds selling off, another one of these days when everything moves in lockstep. a tighter policy that's a few days up in a row. that, somehow.y, internationally some interesting stuff going on. i think we have here the two year yield dropping with the reserve cut and central bank governor's first move being one rate. big cuts being the

germany, looking at an intraday ,hart of german 10 year yields shooting up in the middle of the day on bloomberg news, reporting up on the ecb. perhaps getting closer to a taper in the near future. report a possible tightness with the ecb down the road. central banks perhaps not as easy as expected. scarlet: you want to stay with the international theme first. sterling is on a fresh three decade low, suggesting a hard , suggesting they would give up the customs unit to gain control of their borders. the pound falling.

the dollar is gaining against all those major currencies. we talked about the expectations of rising rates. the richmond and cleveland fed presidents urging the central bank to raise rates. the manufacturing report yesterday pushing up the expectation is a. you can see the clear pattern of higher lows as the dollar strengthened. mulling over possibilities of reducing or tapering bond purchasing, this is bloomberg's correlation weighted index. relative to the euro-dollar, what you want to see there is the action during the day. of course, all of this talk is premature because the ecb is not andng when it will end qe if it even would at the appointed date of march of 2018 or whether it would continue. this is all just service speculation and planning ahead. look at the, let's

commodities and the real action in precious metals. gold having one of its worst days in the long time. i have a good chart on that later in the show. really, gold getting crushed on expectations of tighter policy dropping below 1300. stainless silver, even worse today. intraday chart, down 5%, showing commodities and industrial metals, precious metals, bonds and stocks, all down. let's take a deep dive down to the bloomberg you can find the charts using the function at the bottom of your screen. matt: so, my deep dive was brought on by the chart that joe showed us about 10 minutes ago. i kind of want to show you this chart doesn't looking at the u.k. indexes and the function on the bloomberg when you use these. or you can see that in local currency, u.k. equities, whether

you are looking to put these small cap investments in white or are looking at the big ftse 100 or the 250, more of the domestic stocks in purple. as joe showed you, if you look at them because of the decrease in the pound against the dollar in dollar terms, it's an uglier chart. the same is true if you look at them in euro terms. you can really pick from the drop-down menu any currency and it is just not a pretty chart. unless you own these in pounds, and i switch them into euros, unless you own the ftse in pounds, it's not good. if you did you would want to make sure you owned the ftse 100 because at least it has exposed multinational he the benefits of the pound. the purple line is there joe:. that is -- there. joe: that is a really fun

function to be able to toggle that easily and take a look at that. i want to keep on the pound theme, hitting its low against the dollar today. this is sort of an implied volatility on the currency. the green chart here that you see, this is today. this isok down here exactly one year ago, this dull green line. the elevation across the entire curve speaks to the premium that they are paying for protection, particularly on the downside. people are paying a lot of premium to protect against downside, more across the curve than for upside protection. it really just speaks to the increased volatility the we are seeing in the pound in this post june 23 pre-brexit era. it was quieter one year ago for obvious reasons.

you can see how on the upside in the downside people are paying much more for options that hedge their own loads. go ont: and this could for a long time, too. they are talking about beginning the process. joe: right. march begin the discussion, two years of negotiations, i think it will be a long time of heightened pound volatility in this chart looks to bear that out. what is i'm tracking not yet a natural disaster but could be. advisory came out last wednesday, still in the caribbean. if you click through, there have been a lot of advisories, this takes you through them. the most recent one shows that it's moving sharply west. closer to the u.s. and east coast. by friday it will be off the coast of florida as a category three.

you can see this cone of uncertainty is pretty large. it is hugging the eastern seaboard. make landfallps on saturday as a category two storm. in terms of the applications for the commodity market, it could affect the oil storage in the bahamas, disrupt shipping this week and heading north, delaying the delivery of gasoline to places like new york harbor and southeastern u.s. markets. some and watch for, certainly. that such a great function, to see that potential storm and what it could be heading. scarlet: the fact that you can kind of create room -- your own gif. how do you pronounce that? joe: gif. matt: i think it is apparently sort of supposed to be gif, but people pronounce it jiff.

scarlet: coming up, binky chadha has the catalysts you want to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton. president obama is postponing a political event in florida because of hurricane matthew. hillary clinton's campaign says the president was scheduled to campaign for the secretary in miami but forecasters said that it could menace florida towards the end of the week and push its way up the east coast over the weekend. the president will go to fema headquarters tomorrow to monitor the track of matthew, which left two people dead today in fiji. outbreak, this

time directly linked to the water crisis because residents are afraid to use the water. the bacterial infection typically spreads when people neglect to wash their hands. cdc officials say that that is the most effective way to present the disease, which is highly contagious, from spreading. the u.s. will keep trying to end the fight against syria, even though it ended negotiations with russia. that's according to john kerry, who spoke in brussels after the u.s. announced it pulled out of peace talks. secretary kerry: that includes the grounding of syrian and russian combat aircraft. russia knows what it needs to do. mark: he accused russia to

turning a blind eye to the use of chlorine get -- chlorine gas and barrel bombs. may is after the saudi's to look into allegations the british manufactured weapons are yemen.isused in war-torn she stopped short of announcing a ban on weapons sales. nearly $4ia after billion, or 40% of u.k. arms sales, in the nine months through december. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by 2600 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. back to you. as we head into the last quarter of the year, three catalysts should be at the top of your mind. joe, let's start. today we saw concerns about a tighter fed and a tighter ecb.

equities, selling off. what i'm curious about is if equities can separate from bonds. if we have a selloff, are they bound? >> i would say the contrary is true. when there is a server -- surprising move up in rates, you will see pullback, but in general equities and bond yields are strongly positively correlated. there's very good fundamental reasoning as to why it's a positive correlation. what i would say, as bond yields go up, so does the equity market. actually a chart that i was showing yesterday. it up go ahead and pull again. because the opposite has a boat -- of course been true. this is not u.s. stocks, but mobile stocks. the index is in blue with 10 year yields in white. it wasn't until last friday that we saw a move that made sense. because normally it's a risk on trade. you sell your,

bonds, or a risk off trade, you sell stocks and buy bonds. that seems to have been turned on its head. binky: i think you were disrupt -- discussing past periodds. -- periods. you have to take a longer view. matt: longer than this three-week chart? [laughter] think back to the late 1960's to the late 1990's, where we had a great u.s. inflation title. gradual move back down is when higher bond yields meant lower equities and it was a very simple way of thinking about that, if insulation was driving bond yields higher, it was also driving earning yields lower. that's why you see this strong relationship. you know, is now

built into how everybody thinks about things, even though it really has not been true for the last 20 years. in my book that's a reasonably long time. really that both are being driven by growth, which may be the main reason you have this strong positive correlation. scarlet: speaking of correlation, the dollar is strengthening based on the increase that might happen in december. is that on the back of that stronger dollar? the way we think about it is -- gold looks to be overvalued. if you think about it in terms of catalysts, the u.s. dollar could be one of those catalysts that causes the position to unwind. in our view it's just more likely a tick up in u.s. growth on which we remain constructive with global growth. so, a lot of attention today to the imf downgrading their

forecast. the punchline is that we are now in october, actually. they have had a pretty sizable uptick. pretty: pretty -- joe: germanic, you say it's overvalued by 20%. people say -- how do you value gold? why do the factors point to such a decline? binky: we value the entire oil and commodity complex on the basis of global growth and u.s. dollar. it's as simple as that. it works extremely well across the complex. you know, if you look basically at how each individual commodity is valued relative to those two drivers, gold is one of the commodities that has stuck out. as you said, gold it extremely .ell in the first quarter

when gold was very overvalued, it really was part and parcel of the global growth of your trade. unlike everything else, that actually got unwound. u.s. equities were higher than they were at the bottom. the 10 year bond yield hasn't really moved that much. nor have gold prices. very quickly, you look at stocks on election years. explain this chart. i would say that the typical trajectory around a close election is -- what we have is several months going into the election it is what i would term a choppy, flat period . that's what stocks have been doing for the last double of months. it's postelection and you made it clear when. what i would emphasize is,

independent of which party has one historically. joe: we will be watching that short. -- chart. binky chadha, thank you ray much. "bloomberg." -- this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: "what'd you miss?" does admit's words. he's been outspoken about the future of twitter and continues to be now. we caught up with him at the salesforce dream force conference in san francisco. just an incredible story of underachievement, a

potential not realized. i would be really excited for someone to go in there and take some chances. stuff inhat it has there for everyone on the planet that's interesting. >> had you been hoping that jack would bring in someone else? chris: i was really hoping to see someone get back involved in the company. emily: was that on the table? chris: it was. formal role, but he always had the vision in that company. 2 million users to 200 million users. he might not be the kind of guy that wants the keynote on the big stage, but his ideas have always been a ahead of the market. emily: why didn't that happen?

chris: i'm not sure. we were told it was going to grow. i think he has delivered on the revenue side. you really want to go to a partner that has distribution to grow organically, using other platforms, but at the same time we got the best data and we've got it faster than anyone else out there, why not make it easier? emily: jeff says that he still thinks twitter can be an independent company. what do you think? chris: i don't see how it gets materially better without fresh blood. i don't hear any 3.0, 4.0 in the works. i haven't heard anyone talk with great passion about what's coming down the pike. hoping for an

acquisition? a new ceo? for ani'm hoping acquisition. i've been saying this for a long time. there's really only four or five companies out there. googlet's an obvious fit. google underestimated the company for a long time. they underestimated blogger for years. end,looking like a front but the candidates gave it incredibly. that's what twitter is, but to the scare the -- the scale that blogger never achieved. it took has tried to copy copy at a couple of times but haven't pulled it off yet. how do we service the best tweets? if we check into twitter, i don't want to see the 10 most recent, i want to see the best ones that i missed. the most engagement.

so that you can see the highlights of the day. i think that facebook could really help in that way. i think that microsoft would be able to absorb this is this and take some chances with it. emily: disney? chris: i think that people are overweighting the importance of media on the platform. it, media partners will come. you don't necessarily have to do it to get people excited i am platform like this. you just have to make it the most fun place. years ago i brought kobe bryant by the twitter office to show how the nba was partnering with twitter to show clips of the game and he said -- wow, how much did you have to pay to get that? everyone laughed and he was like -- why are you laughing? we said -- they gave it to us for free and we are going to split the money.

it was in the interest of the nba. you don't have to do a strategic content partner deal. chris: you were the biggest -- emily: you were the biggest shareholder at one time. have you sold any shares? chris: definitely. i don'tow much? chris: own as many as i used to, because am not an idiot, but i own more than i should because i'm an idiot. emily: how much should a go for? pricedan acquisition is in right now. as much as i'm a cheerleader, it's really hard for something not growing to justify paying overweight in the market right now. i think it's priced to perfection. joe: that was lowercase capital management director, chris sacca , with emily chang. scarlet: coming up, we will discuss why some investors remain skeptical on greece's

turnaround. this is bloomberg. ♪

i'm mark crumpton. hillary clinton and donald trump will be miles away from virginia tonight, but they will be watching their running mates in the one and only vice issidential debate. trump expected to watch the debate between mike pence and tim kaine at trump international hotel in las vegas. mrs. clinton is expected to be tuned in her home in chappaqua, new york. secretary clinton leads by six points in a new national poll. voters inongst likely the surveymonkey tracking poll.

gary johnson gets 9%. jill stein has 3%. clinton leads trump 50% to 44%. another tirade from the philippine president. he lashed out at president obama and the european union over criticism of his deadly anti-drug campaign. >> you can go to hell. mr. obama, you can go to help. [indiscernible] anti-drug fight has left more than 3000 suspected drug dealers and pushers dead in just three months. korea may be planning an october surprise. over the past 60 years pyongyang has typically try to provoke tension around u.s. elections, according to a study from the center of strategic and international studies first reported by cnn. the rogue nation conducted a

missile test and nuclear test just before president obama was a elected. powered by more than 26 hundred journalists, world news 24 hours per day. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. quick recap ona today's market reaction. equities are lower across the board. the s&p 500, most of these businesses down half of 1%. not huge on the selloff, but as we have been talking about for most of the show, it's the brett of the selloff -- breadth of the selloff. matt: i was going to say the same thing. gold was down. all precious metals got it. the global act was down, u.s. at down.-- ag was u.s. high-yield were some of the only gainers in terms of your

preference and how long you have been working here. that's an interesting point as well. scarlet? in the takeover deal with monsanto, antitrust reviews in 30 jurisdictions worldwide. lawmakers already expressing concerns over the megamerger. let's dig deeper into those financials. the numbers don't lie. investors often appear to be skeptical about deals going through. we have a chart in which it reacted negatively with monsanto near the top of the list, consistently lagging behind buyers in the offer since they were made last month. it would be the largest deal ever by german companies. the next biggest would be me,lerchrysler -- excuse daimler's purchase of chrysler.

they are combining and after how he looks at the deal goes through, the blue part reflects that contribution with signs replacing health care is the biggest business. it comes with overall revenue growth here, the white line to celebrating. posting for straight orders of blue line.the it is this trend that has helped to push months and took to the marketing table. they are likely to demand the sale of some cottonseed assets to alleviate concerns over competition in the industry. if the deal goes through it would combine to companies with a long and storied history that have shaped what we eat, the drugs we take, and how we grow our food. joe? joe: "what'd you miss?"

good news string of for greece. the budget execution is on target and we learned that greek bank deposits rose in august. just today they said the greek government has stepped up economic overhauls to keep aid flowing. some investors are not dying the turnaround story just yet. joining me now is an economics professor at the nyu stern's business school. us.olas, thanks for joining is greece back on track? or at some point in the future are we going to hear about how there is another impasse or 11th hour negotiation? nicolas: i'm still pessimistic. these are the constraints on economic growth. that could bring greece out of the present situation have not happened yet. so, just looking at the is still numbers might look good from a

european point of view. but it doesn't look good for the whole economy. there is a need for reforms and a need for structure programs that will bring greece out of the present recession. they need to reduce the amount of primary surplus that these require. what with structural reform look like? that's one of those terms that gets bandied about forever. specifically for greece, what is actually needed? a number of things -- nicholas: a number of things. but most important is a restructuring of the state sector that is a huge influence on the whole economy. lots of people going without doing much. we need to make sure that the people go to the right functions and that it actually works. additionally, it has to be done smaller. the amount of expenditure has to be so huge that it drains the

taxation resources. scarlet: sounds like more belt-tightening. what would that look like in greece in the next generation? nicholas: i don't think the problem can be fixed by endless belt-tightening. there has to be the reduction of the state so that we can cut the taxes. creating a better investment environment. i'm just afraid that with the present government, this will not happen. the government that will inspire more confidence in investors. creating a more favorable environment. chances ofare the that happening? are we going to get a snap election? i think that's very likely. on the one sided structural reform. on the other side, the ecb has lowered rates for some of the

bigger, more economically successful countries, that greece seems to miss out on. writing a white paper on how they could change that. do you see how they could possibly do that to buy greek that? -- debt? i would not expect this until maybe the end of 17 or 18. i do not think that greece is there yet. matt: do you think they need to earn that? nicholas: i do. and because of some past decisions, they still hold a lot of greek paper. they have rules about how much they can hold. even if they come in they will come in with minuscule amounts. what about overall structural issues with the eurozone? even if they got back on track, there are some deep problems with it. struggling with trade imbalances, feeling like their trade position is this so much that it hurts everyone else.

people talking about the need for some sort of fiscal union. or a breakup. ultimately we still have the periphery going between these bouts of poor economic performance and stress politics. nicholas: well, the euro was introduced a bit early. everyone agrees on that right now. for the banking union, it's the same rules for every bank across countries. eventually there is a need for tax transfers. for the money to flow around. the u.s. government doesn't quite say it, but the fact is they do it. scarlet: if you were to advise the next government, if there is one, would you say that brexit is a solution? nicholas: it's out of the question for two reasons. it will be a disaster for greece

. and by now the europeans think the same way. i don't think it's going to happen. at the same time when i look at the greek government bonds, i that showpremiums susceptibility. i don't think it's in the cards. if i was advising the greek government i would tell them what i told them -- told you a few minutes ago. create the right investment environment. find a way to deal with nonperforming loans. there has to be some way to securitize them and find a way so that the banks get rid of them from the books and can give loans to help businesses. joe: all right, nicholas economides, thank you very much. as tim kaine and mike pence get ready to take center stage, we will discuss what you need to know about the first and only

vice presidential debate, tonight. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: "what'd you miss?" the one and only vice presidential debate takes place tonight. tim kaine and mike pence will face-off for 90 minutes at longwood university. the donald trump under pressure after a bad week, mike pence will be battling to turn the tide against hillary clinton, you would expect. kevin, i have been thinking about this all day, whether these candidates will come out and act as surrogates for candidate trump and secretary clinton, or whether or not they will try to prove their own metal. do you expect a little bit of

both? or one or the other? kevin: i think it will be a little bit of both. i just spoke to the senior trump campaign and was told it essentially what we will be seen tonight is governor pence trying to make that case, the contrast himself, donald trump of hillary and tim kaine. they will specific he be talking about things like the clinton foundation, as well as hillary clinton's paid speeches to wall street financial institutions. after a series of missteps the company yesterday again tried to raise the issue of the clinton conflict of interest, as republicans are calling it, with wells fargo. we have seen them try to make that contrast as well with deutsche bank. clearly, they are trying to lump hillary clinton in as an agent of the status while.

casting trump as an agent of change. matt: has a vice presidential debate ever mattered? kevin: no, that's the bottom line tonight. i think that if you are tim kaine or governor pence, what you want to do is avoid a viral moment that will essentially be a massive gap defining not only a new cycle or two, but also the remaining 40 some days we have on the campaign trail. you are right. both of these guys are very boring and it is in part why they were chosen. i don't really expect that there will be any major career ending narrative shifts tonight. matt: i'm sure the user this a lot on the campaign trail. we are looking at an election between two people who are not credibly old, but they are both about 70 or more. it's a lot different from mitt romney and barack obama. if you have health concerns, one of these guys could be not only

the president momentarily, but could be for the rest of the term, right? that's a good point. one thing about why donald trump and hillary clinton picked them is that they themselves are qualified to be president if something should happen. sense of what each of their most prominent issues are. mike pence, tim kaine, what are they really strong on? kevin: tim kaine talks regally not only about his economic outreach but his outreach to the hispanic community. i think that what you will see tonight with governor pence on the flipside of that is that this is someone who has argued briefly about his economic record in indiana. with one major glaring spot, the range -- the very controversial law passed following the supreme court ruling on marriage equality. they are both practicing

catholics. their faith is important to both of them. look tonight for a key moment in this debate to be how they both respond to that issue and how governor pence is able to respond to that issue. he was chosen largely because of his conservative bona fides. donald trouble has had base with the party. let's see how he translates to a broader, more mainstream, independent type of crowd. joe: quickly, you mentioned the mike pence strategy to combat -- contrast himself with clinton. will tim kaine's strategy the to make dumb -- make and defend what donald trump says all the time? kevin: it is. the suggestion is that what they are going to try to do is keep that trump campaign on defense. to keep them talking about things like twitter and the former miss universe pageant winner. on the flipside, republicans have to find a way to put the democrats back on defense to

talk about things, like the clinton foundation and the new developments in this fbi investigation. they have to find a way to get that above the fray because candidly they have not been able to do that since the first presidential debate. matt: kevin, thank you so much for joining us there. don't forget to catch our special coverage of the vice presidential debate tonight, starting at 8:30 p.m. eastern. you can watch it right here on bloomberg television and listen to it on bloomberg radio. scarlet: maybe there will be some good one-liners, like you are no jack kennedy. matt: that was a good vice presidential debate. or at least that was a good line. scarlet: all right, plus, let's talk about what's coming up. will be sitting down an exclusive interview with emily chang. the supporter had some harsh words for donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪

mark cuban has not been shy about voicing his political views this election season. he was one of hillary clinton's guests at the first debate with some of trump last week. up with him in an exclusive interview in san francisco. mark: i'm hedging some things, just in case he gets further along. emily: like what? mark: derivatives, if the market starts to head down. emily: how do you think clinton versus trump would impact deals, growth in general?

emily: -- mark: when you have a president and you don't know what he's going to say next, that's the ultimate uncertainty. one ridiculous or offensive comment, north korea drops the bomb on japan. one demonstration of being oblivious about the world and another putin takes country like the ukraine. those are the types of things that radel everybody. when i said the market would tank if you was elected, that's the ultimate uncertainty. go to year senator, go to your congressman, you can do with it. you can have a say in trying to oppose it. if someone is just oblivious to what's going on in the world -- look at charlotte. it doesn't matter what the tax structure is. a business can't open if they

are afraid that someone is going to get hurt and you are afraid to send your kids to school. that's when society really takes a turn for the worst emily:. emily:you think there could be massive social unrest? mark: who knows, right? what i'm saying is that hillary clinton understands the balance of power in the world. the relationship between china and north korea, japan. the entire asian area. she understands the dynamics of russia, vladimir putin, and the surrounding countries. he doesn't. you know? inn asked about the change obama's approach, he didn't know what he was talking about. that's the scariest thing ever. it's become less about his politics, less about his proposed policy. it's not even about the lack of understanding. as president, you make one , something offensive to

a world leader. that's all the excuse you need. one incursion on a nato ally? those are different worlds. as an investor and business person, i look at probability and risk assessment. is it a greater than 0% chance the trump would say something stupid as president they could cause north korea to take an action? yes. is it greater than a 10% chance, about a tweet over a beauty queen? it might be greater than 75%. there's no amount of policy that offsets that. it makes them completely unfit. we can argue about all the crazy stuff that has been said about hillary clinton, but she is pragmatic, she's smart, she understands the turf. she knows what a nuclear triad is. she understands the military.

he has no clue. when he tried to explain cyber emily:, he didn't know what he was talking about. emily: you have blasted him for not taking -- not paying taxes. what is wrong with him for not doing that? mark: nothing. i have as well. but if i was out there saying i was the world's greatest business person, i would admit my mistakes. if i was releasing taxes and i had a $950 million loss, i would tell you why. there's two ways to look at it. one, i'm ashamed of what i've done. or number two, if he really was caredrepreneur and really about investing in people in developing jobs, why not say -- i to big chance. i thought i could create this business. i failed but i learned a lot from it and you will take the benefit of my knowledge from that failure. no one has ever been successful that has not admitted a failure. that was mark cuban, from

the salesforce dream force conference in san francisco. youlet: coming up, what do need to know for tomorrow's trading day? ♪

scarlet:scarlet: stocks fell, gold fell, silver fell. the dollar rose. don't miss tomorrow, when we talked to japan's pmi service. matt: eurozone sales out tomorrow. joe: and it's a huge week for u.s. economic data. i will be looking at factory economic orders at 10 a.m. forget to stay tuned tonight to bloomberg television, where we will be broadcasting the vice

presidential debate, the first ever between mike pence and tim kaine. that is all for "what'd you miss?" thanks for watching. matt: see you back your tomorrow. joe:

mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect the spinybody here in room at the vice presidential debate, you can't say you did not warn us. ♪ john: we are here in farmville, virginia at longwood university, home of the lancers. tonight this tiny college is hosting the one and only vice presidential debate. mike pence and tim kaine wi