mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect the spinybody here in room at the vice presidential debate, you can't say you did not warn us. ♪ john: we are here in farmville, virginia at longwood university, home of the lancers. tonight this tiny college is hosting the one and only vice presidential debate. mike pence and tim kaine will face-off in a 90 minute hoedown

moderated by cbs news. few are expecting the same riotous chaos we got between hillary clinton and donald trump. but this debate is sure to feature plenty of jousting pence as theyand defend the honor of their respective nominees. mark: this campus attracts a pretty raucous crowd. there are a lot of cheering protesters round both for and cleansed clinton -- for and against clinton, for and against trump. pleased to vice presidential nominees are mild-mannered. this is their moment in the sun. they will not be talked much about after tonight. this is an opportunity for two g about the ideas they are putting forward and their

negative critiques of the other side. we might get clarity about policy and critique that does not come through often when clinton and trump are front and center. john: it is interesting because tim kaine and hillary clinton basically agree on everything, mike pence and donald trump do not. it is a substantive debate. both of these guys have been in politics for a long time. watching mike pence trying to do what is his one job tonight, which is literally the only thing, making voters a little more comfortable with electing donald trump. pence has ties to the establishment party, and long standing conservative principles will give some voters comfort. to put hillary clinton more on the defensive dan donald trump did. unless pence has a disastrous performer, he will put her more

on the defensive name trumpeted --defensive than trump did. john: i see what you mean, it's kind of a conceptual defense. without her on stage it will be different. i am looking forward to this debate. i think it could be quite interesting. mark: these are two likable guys. not everybody likes hillary clinton and donald trump. it could be a breath of fresh air for some voters. 35 news cycles left. national polling continues to trend what we've seen in the last few days from almost every reason survey. hillary clinton regained a meaningful edge over donald trump in most of the important battleground states. ainton is up by six points in poll 46-40%, essentially the margin she had in this four-way poll last month.

also leading trump by 4 points in a nbc news poll. she has gained ground in today's new staples from pennsylvania and -- new state polls from pennsylvania and north carolina. thet a chance to ask campaign chairman about his views of the race overall about the electoral college math, and what it would take for clinton to lose her advantage. >> look, we take nothing for granted. this has been a long and grueling campaign. we are competing in all of the battlegrounds and willie across this country from north carolina and florida to nevada and colorado as this campaign season wraps up. we are going to fight to win that 270 plus margin. i feel like we are in a strong position to do that.

mark: what would it take for you to lose? >> i think right now the direction of this campaign is in our favor. we have to do everything we can to make sure that it stays that way. a block can happen. ws what tricks are in store for us. allies,. trump for his here or abroad. mark: no doubt there is quite confidence from quiet john podesta. polls are about where the clinton campaign thinks they have it, clinton with a 4-5 point leader nationally winning the bulk of the battleground states. 4 years ago the obama campaign said, we've got this, the numbers are stable. how would you compare this level of confidence that john podesta and his colleagues have now compared to the obama campaign's confidence? john: three words: similar, but

less. hillary clinton has a lot more to the path to 270 votes. so that is similar. less in that mitt romney was a much more predictable opponent then donald trump. trump hasvement for much been higher, things have been crazy in this cycle. you can be as secure as people bee in barack obama -- can't as secure as people were in barack obama back then. mark: can hillary clinton inspire young white and nonwhite voters to vote for him? she does not have the same ties to the. donald trump is on the track to win ohio. and when you are not winning ohio you have to question the

fundamental governance of the race. trump is on track to get within a hailing distance of 270. not all the way there. if the obama competence was 100%, and they pretty much were at 100%, i would put them at 80%. john: similar, but a little bit less. what i said. mark: i quantified it. john: the poll that has hurt up -- has her up 4 in florida. that puts them very high. about hillary clinton, in the next of the economic -- in the midst of the economic obama was more popular with democrats and across the country. clinton on the other and has historic unpopularity. mark: the clinton campaign

tlieves trump will have 44 ops. and he will not win with that nationally. john: donald trump has spent far less on the television airwaves than hillary clinton has. teamp trump claims a new ad will be running in the rain state markets -- running in battleground state markets soon. it features a more kinder donald trump than we are accustomed to seeing. >> i love being a mom, but know how to how hard we work, i can't get ahead. donald trump is listening. care plan my child allows every family in america to deduct their childcare expenses from their income taxes. >>'s childcare plan makes a difference for working families. more money, more freedom. he's helping americans just like us. john: what do you think of this ad? will its tone work for donald

trump? mark: that will infuriate the clinton campaign because they will say this is sony and fake -- is phony and fake. i think republicans will say, that is a good ad. and say, why didn't we raise the money to put ads like that on in august and not october? john: television advertising has not moved very much on either side. the markets have spend tons of money. have a massive advantage in terms of how much they have spent, but the dynamics are driven by these candidates that have so much free media attention. that reflected the weight donald trump -- if that reflected the way donald trump campaigned, maybe, but it doesn't, so i don't think it will move the needle. trump move over suburban white women?

tissues where trump is more moderate to the republican party. there is criticism from the clinton campaign about his childcare program. but just trying to associate himself with affordable childcare is on the margins -- he needs to drive that message. i don't know how much they are spending on this ad. but boy is it late to be trying to drive this. caresthe core is, who about this at if you spent the last week fat shaming some woman? the amount of coverage of what he did last week, this is like a of coverage in the ocean of the coverage that he gets when he attacks a woman he's supposed to be appealing to as part of this ad. we are going to have complete pregame and postgame coverage of the vice

presidential debate live from here at farmville university at longwood virginia. it streams on twitter. first, for previews of the vice president of debate and the most difficult questions both candidates could see after these words from our sponsors. ♪

mark: welcome back to farmville. we are back at longwood university ahead of tonight's vice presidential debate. odds are if we are talking about this a week from now, it is

because one of the vice president candidates had a horrible horrible night. if one thing could trip up mike pence tonight, what would it be? john: i think the ticket will be relentless in trying to drive a wedge between trump and pence. i imagine he is prepared for it. if there is somewhere where his body language or words shows that he is not where trump is at defending these outrageous things, that will create a problem for him. mark: tsipras is looking at this as much as anything. -- the press is looking at this as much as anything. a soundbite that reinforces a negative thing about trump, that will be back for him. but he has beaten that she has spoken skillfully throughout this campaign. has spoken skillfully throughout this campaign. john: in the way that hillary

clinton has used the words "g enius" to mock trump, you think if pence will praise trump pretty extravagantly, it will turn up in a campaign ad. let me ask you about kaine, same question -- if something could trip him up, what would it be? instinct. pence may go after hillary clinton's ethics in a way that will put kaine in a of position. -- in a tough position. one candidate was asked if trump was a good role model. was bill clinton and good role model for people in the 1990's? something like that i think he would have trouble answering. john: i think one place where kaine is afe is entering his own record.

his record on the death penalty, it is very comfortable defending this. mark: i don't think pence will waste much time there. john: but the republicans have been raising this issue. the most awkward thing about the clintons is where you are right. you can imagine him getting in an awkward spot. ,im kaine is a very good guy i mean good with a capital g. he's a goodie two shoes. he's not used to answering those questions about scandals. variablesof the big that we don't know. lake condo is not known as much as a commodity. it will be a fascinating thing to see. she will not be discussed as much as lester holt was. you can tune in for our live

streaming coverage of the debate. bloombergpolitics has teamed up exclusively with twitter. it all starts at 8:30 eastern. allcan watch on @vpolitics streaming live on bloomberg television and on twitter. you will have more from farmville right after this. ♪

john: we are here on the campus of long word university awaiting tonight's presidential debate. andare joined by kasie hunt kelly o'donnell. ladies, always a pleasure to be

graced by your presence. what do you think about the vice president of debate taking place in either camp? kasie: the idea that they are trying to print tim kaine to be an attack talk -- trying to prep tim kaine it to be an attack dog. using his mr. nice guy persona to relate to the audience while also not letting up on mike pence. much more is a disciplined person to go after than donald trump. [laughter] i think mike pence is digging into tim kaine's gubernatorial records in a way that voters may not expect to hear what he did when he was in charge. i think they will use that to say that tim kaine would have

raised taxes. mike pence, taxes have gone down in indiana -- the kind of argument. employment numbers. trying to find things about tim kaine that they can attach to the larger narrative about what trump wants to accomplish. both both these clinton is wanted run.y good the polls are in a very good direction. do you have a sense of what their current concerns are? kasie: their current concerns are that they are trying to sever losses with white working-class men. in these battleground states like ohio, predominantly not african-american areas like ohio. she's not necessarily talking about this designed to resonate

with those voters. if they feel that they can cut their losses there, they will be in good shape. the challenge is if these do not ultimately resonate in the polls. in ohio, we have not ultimately seen it. mark: and the republican party establishment is in panic, it's harder for them to get good news stories. august, they were in panic. where are they now after eight days of bad coverage for donald trump? kelly: i think there is a partial paralysis. there is an inability to know how to respond to these things. when they make the argument that trumps taxation was within the law. when you argue that it is within the law, you are a bit behind. mark: paul ryan said it was not a big deal. : he went a little further than perhaps he wanted to. there's so much construction on establishment republicans, they don't want to be drawn in.

mark: it seems they were panic in august, and now they are used to it. kelly: the hard part is, how many days left? is there a rebound moment? after the first debate, do they think the next debate is the way to claim that rebound if hence cannot turn the dial tonight? john: what we have not thought about is that trump will be live tweeting the debate. the clinton campaign this afternoon said "great." zilla,cale of one to god how excited are we about this? kasie: i'm going to go with godzilla. they are totally excited. mike pence won't have an idea what is going on either when he's standing on stage. kelly: which is adjusting

because he will be in his own orbit trying to be the good running mate. trying to make only good news or none at all. there will be the serial's -- trumphereal twitter of watching over. john: this seems insane. kelly: by the normal playbook it is not the way to go. john: it seems indicative that still at this late game, with everything that happened last week, there is no one in trump's with it that can -- trump's orbit that can keep him off the twitter machine. kelly: mike pence is disciplined. 140perhaps trump can use characters to amplify that. it is clear that he missed on some key issues he could have used. kasie: this is a way that mike

pence could get more attention. he has awaited talk to voters -- has a way to talk to voters that trump has talked past. kelly: they want substance. mark: something that normally occurs to a vice president nominee's frustration. those tim kaine have any frustration, or is he happy to be here? kasie: he seems like the internal happy warrior. he still remembers the sting of not getting chosen. someone from nbc news has covered tim kaine and shows that he has figured out a nice spot for himself. mark: and has the potential to be more frustrated. mike pence has the potential to be more frustrated. is he? kelly: his ability to put a sunnier spin on trump's

messages, he has enlarged his own profile greatly. i think mike pence has enjoyed it. mark: those like paul manafort pence over for chris christie or newt gingrich -- can you imagine what that would have been like? kelly: it would have been a completely different campaign. voters would not have appreciated the sense of calm he could have brought to the ticket. kasie: can i say i was so surprised to hear mike pence swear in public? >> they think you might have been tripping over words, not intentionally. kasie: very out of character. john: very clear, it is the s-word we are referring to. sugar. sweetness. it is very clear what a victory for mike pence would be.

making voters more comfortable about donald trump. what is the clear victory for tim kaine? kasie: making mike pence answer for some of these things donald trump has said. and honestly the depth in handling questions on hillary clinton's record. if he makes a mistake, we will see that on repeat for a while. kasie hunt and kelly o'donnell, you both are sugar. you will be back -- we will be back with more from our long would university debate. ♪

>> franklin roosevelt said in 1932 that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.

the only thing they have to offer is fear. mark: that was the 1996 vice presidential debate between al gore and jack kemp. with us now, the gentlelady from minnesota, amy klobuchar, helping hillary clinton and other democrats. klobuchar: from the state of vice presidents too. of walter mondale and humphrey, and tim kaine as well. why does this matter to the presidential race? he will have an opportunity to lay out her economic plan that are so different from donald trump's. you cannot collect what happened in the last week. that has to be part of the discussion.

it will be a little bit lower wattage from last week. donald trump's plan puts five trillion dollars on the back of the american people. we are seeing a difference between what was said and the actual economic policies. john: why don't people talk about his focus on these issues? rep. klobuchar: given what has happened in north carolina where that is a major issue, given that the nba has pulled out, the ncaa has pulled out. paypal has decided not to do a .ajor expansion

this really scared businesses away. there was a minor change in indiana, but it's still a problem, and will be fair game when looking at the economy. what is an economy that works for all americans, and not just a few? mark: donald trump talking about his plans for tax breaks for childcare. do you applaud that issue? rep. klobuchar: i think it's good when we get anything on childcare. on the other hand, i will say the work-family leave is not nearly as good is the one hillary clinton is proposing. it's important to talk about the issues but also what the actual policies are. these next three debates will give us a chance to do that. john: there are two different

ways you can go after mike pence. one is that he is a conservative extremist. others is that he is trying to drive a wedge through that. show where there is daylight between the two of them? that seems moderate compared to trump. sen. klobuchar: my guess is that there will be some discussions. he has two people running for vice president. some questions for pence. i think the major piece of this is that you have donald trump at the top of the ticket. pence releases his texas, trump --releases his taxes, trump does not release his taxes. a rushled himself limbaugh on decaf. and the problem is that he is running with a guy, donald trump, who is rush limbaugh on

redbull. john: we could workshop that line. sen. klobuchar: did i stumble over it? it didn't add to it. mark: republicans are making critical remarks about the affordable care act. sen. klobuchar: i worked on the tax on medical manufacturing -- liberals like lipitor and did not think that was a good idea. -- like elizabeth warren did not think it was a good idea. need a bill to make changes to it. there are civilian problems in terms of pharmaceutical problems -- from suitable prices. to fix medicare part d these deals between pharmaceutical companies.

that is a bill that i have with chuck grassley. on a bipartisan basis there are things we can do. exchanges, how we manage those extenders, there's a lot how we can do. but every time we try to do it, the republicans say let's just reviewable the whole thing. thing. repeal the whole mark: you seem to have no problems criticizing aspects of the affordable care act. two you think republicans are making any political hay by trashing the affordable care act? sen. klobuchar: no. what hillary clinton has said is that we have to look at some changes. she has certainly been out there on the cost of prescription drugs. when we passed it, it was a beginning and not an end. john: mark hypothesized a question that tim kaine could get tonight.

kelly ayotte was asked whether donald trump was a good role model for americans. she stumbled over.. if tim kaine had to answer whether bill clinton was a good role model for americans, how would he insert? sen. klobuchar: i think he was a great president in terms of what he accomplished. did he have flaws? yes. that is well litigated. but what he did in terms of stabilizing our community, from coming from a major debt, he did some great things. he did was have some major flaws. but looking at these people on the ticket, donald trump and hillary clinton, there is no comparison to me. talks aboute obama an her kids playing out in front of the white house lawn in a house built for slaves -- they are a role model for kids everywhere.

and you have somebody divisive, constantly picking americans against each other. that is not the kind of role model we want in the world. every young girl in the world will see the president of the united states is a woman, and a strong one at that. >> a good example of why she would not have been a bed pick to be on the ticket. >> having a great time in farmville. it reminds me of home. >> the man leading the group trying to get democrats on board as well as a donald trump senior adviser. after this.

>> who am i, why am i here? was third-party candidate ross perot jim stockdale expressing confusion bordering on the fundament when he made his -- befuddlement when he made his debut in the debate. we are hours away from another debate in farmville, virginia. joining us now is the executive mpicrats,of tru supporters of trump who are democrats. hillary clinton was doing a press conference just before doing the show. she said that mike pence has a huge burden in defending his own record and donald trump.

do you think there is a big burden for that? what is the most burdensome thing he will have to do? for think it is laughable hillary clinton to say that mike pence has a big burden. tim kaine has to answer for 30 years of failed to look service by hillary clinton. she is a career politician and has nothing to show for it. it's much bigger than the successful business record that mike pence gets to tout for donald trump and his own personal record of success for governor, cutting taxes and lowering unemployment. andas a great story to tell i hope he gets a chance to do that tonight. >> am i right that you are a supporter of bernie sanders and barack obama? there issues are closer to hillary clinton the donald trump. fordo you want democrats

donald trump as opposed to hillary? >> i grew up in a small town south of here. 20 years ago there were 15 manufacturing facilities and another is one. there is nobody more responsible for those job losses than hillary clinton. people cannot provide for their families. they are underemployed. >> are you a single issue trump photo? -- trump voter? >> i think she is unelectable. i call her the pied piper of greed. these are people who left the white house dead broke. it is unconscionable. it is clear that tonight tim kaine will try to go after places where mike pence and donald trump disagree. speak to what you think are the

areas where the job will be trickiest for pence. in terms of trying to navigate where he and donald trump are not in the same place. >> on the big issues that most americans care about they are positively aligned. anyre never going to find two people. even my dad and i disagree and we are ideologically pre-similar. -- pretty similar. >> how do you think mike pence will answer the question how his views differ, for example, on alecia machado? >> hillary clinton by far has said the most offensive thing in this race that i have heard in modern politics when she called millions of americans deplorables. but as aeciate that, direct response to the question,

how do you feel about the nominee's treatment of alicia machado? if you are mike pence, what would you say? >> what i just said. most offensive thing isn't what hillary clinton and donald trump have said about one another. it's not just what donald trump has said but what she has done. i'm more concerned about what one candidate has done in 30 years. >> so pivot and ignore the question? >> yet to look at the context of the overall race. we are talking about what one candidate has said and what one candidate has done. what hillary clinton has done is a pay to play scandal, an e-mail scandal, she has disqualified herself from being president and you have to point that out. >> are you and your pac asking democrats to leave the democratic party, or just to cast a one-off vote for donald trump. >> mrs. specific to the presidential election.

after this debate -- this is specifically to the presidential election. after this debate we are going to cleveland to distribute 10,000 yard signs and materials making stops in youngstown and the mahoney valley. there are hundreds of thousands of the kratz in those states who have either switched their registration to vote for donald trump in the primary -- we have 50,000 names in 10 counties in pennsylvania and western pennsylvania that are right for our message. we will turn them out and it will make a difference. >> and that you would like to see trump when. would you -- win. would you like to see republicans control the senate and house? >> that is not the focus of this. we have raised $200,000 and we have a commitment for $1.2 million before the end of the month. >> if you had to pick one state

-- >> pennsylvania. ground zero. >> great to have you. thank you for doing the show. we will talk to two of washington's reporters after we let these folks go free. we will be right back.

>> who are you supporting? >> trump. >> hillary clinton. >> donald trump. >> is there anything you could agree on? is there bias in the media? >> everyone has been ducking the tough questions. >> i can agree with that. >> what is important to you?

>> football and basketball. >> you can agree on that? >> climate change is real. >> would you be ok if the wall didn't happen? >> that's in the right direction. that's good. what is the bar situation like an farmville? >> none. >> there is no bar. they had one and moved it. >> do we need a new bar? >> we need a new one. >> if any candidate said new bar and farmville you would be like, hell yeah. >> bar in farmville 2016. >> are colic showing there is more than -- that unites us than divides us. we decided to bring into people who are universally well-liked. postfrom the washington and our bloomberg colleague.

phil, what would you like to happen when the debate gets started? >> it is a debate with mike pence and tim kaine but it is really all about donald trump and hillary clinton. mikenxious to see how pence handles the trump controversies. if there will be any daylight between them. but it's what the story will be. >> you are a long time pence watcher. getting people to feel good about the brand and the ticket. >> i agree with phil. he has to thread the needle between keeping social conservatives happy and being true to his record, one of serious conservatism, and trying to not disagree with things that donald trump has said. there are gaps between the two of them when it comes to policy and rhetoric and their take on

the campaign. >> we have invoked the word farmville several times in this campaign. talk a little bit about what farmville is and the history here and why that could give tim kaine a talking point. >> farmville was the epicenter of the civil rights movement in virginia. the schools were segregated, and it became part of the brown v. board of education case that we all know about. this is a sad history. it is something that tim kaine will talk about. he was a civil rights lawyer and his father-in-law helped integrate the schools here in virginia. >> the former republican agenda governor who helped reintegrate schools in the early 1970's.

what would a victory look like for tim kaine? >> a victory for tim kaine would be getting mike pence off his speaking points. he is a disciplined guy who rarely says something off message. if tim kaine can somehow rattle him, in any way the way hillary clinton was able to rattle donald trump, that would be a victory. >> what rattles mike pence? >> it would take a lot. he is cool and calm. he is more used to the radio world than the television world, but he is pretty comfortable on television. i think it will be difficult. >> looking forward to the town hall and the presidential debate. trump seems to be practicing. what is your sense of whether he will excel in that format rather than the other one? >> it is a tough format for him. it is your body language, how you interact with voters who ask

the question. what does he do physically when hillary is talking? how does he react to her? he is thinking about it, practicing, getting coaching from chris christie. we will see if he can practice all that he is hearing and improve his performance. >> we had a north carolina poll this week. the horse race showed a close race. >> one thing that was interesting is that clinton is not quite there with black voters in the way that they were with obama. she has to make more improvements. she is doing well with women. she could do better. just like everywhere else. >> what is a victory look like

for mike pence? >> not having a mistake and getting through a lot of what should be tough questioning from the moderator and tim kaine. if he can have it, he can come out with a wash that should be something of a victory that would stabilize things on their campaign. mccormickcker, john -- thank you both. john and i will be right back.

p.m., mark and i will be hosting a pregame debate show from long word university.

-- longwood university. that coverage will be on bloomberg, but also live streaming on twitter. we will have predebate analysis and guest interviews followed by the whole debate live from your smartphone, your laptop, your home.tv, and your chang will talk to mark cuban about donald trump. thank you for watching. sayonara.

>> forecasters are calling it the most powerful storm in about a decade. it slammed into haiti today leaving four people dead. the storm is on track to deliver a glancing blow to florida before spinning up the east coast. united nations secretary-general ban ki-moon is urging the u.s. and russia to resume negotiations on syria. he says he has been holding talks with john kerry and other russian officials. the airas transported defense system to syria to attack one of its naval facilities there. it comes after the