♪ donny: i'm donny deutsch. john: i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" to hillary clinton and donald trump, if shawn and megan can be friends, why can't you? ♪ john: hurricane matthew watch continues. the storm has stayed far enough offshore of central florida but it is not over yet. the city of jacksonville and areas in georgia and south carolina are on high alert. we will track that throughout the show. meanwhile, just 48 hours before the second presidential debate,

donald trump is in double trouble for a pair of controversial utterances that are burning up the wires. one took place at an immigration roundtable at trump tower today. and we will talk about that in a moment. a hot micwas part of more than 10 years ago, but boy, is it a scorcher. the video obtained by the washington post featured audio from trump in 2005 making comments that were vulgar about trying to sleep with a married woman at the time. at the time trump was married , with his third wife and was talking to billy bush as they arrived on the set of "days of our lives." people have -- when this video is out -- we will play some of it, but almost everybody watching the show has seen it. i want to ask this trump was , going to get asked about bad language, bad attitude towards women already. this will be a big topic on sunday for sure given the way the first debate went.

how much worse do you think this makes it and what can trump do now given the depth of the whole -- hole he has put himself in? donny: let the record show at 4 :00 p.m. on october 7, this election ended. there will be women coming out because this man has lived this way for 30 or 40 years. hillary clinton has been vetted. this is his first go around. they have been saving the best for last. it is not just he is talking about women -- it is the lewdness, the aggressive, aningeaning nature -- deme nature. you don't recover from this. the scary thing is there will be more to come. john: the trump campaign put out a statement -- i want to read the statement. i want to get this up here. we will play this in a second.

but this is the campaign statement about this video we will show you in a second. this was locker room banter. a private conversation that took place many years ago. bill clinton has said far worse to me on the golf course. not even close. i apologize if anyone was offended. so, i said yesterday on this show that i thought -- before this happened -- that the only recourse trump would have given the things he has said about women, the only recourse he had was to apologize. we will now play the video, but i will say now, say i apologize if anybody was offended is not an apology. and the necessity for trump to wants to havehe any chance -- the only recourse he has now, the only recourse is an apology to the women of america. take a look at this. watch the video now. see if you agree with me. mr. trump: i moved on her actually and i failed. i admit it. i did try to -- her. she was married.

[laughter] moved on her very heavily. in fact i took her out furniture , shopping. i said i will show you where they have some nice furniture. i moved on her like a -- she was married. and all of a sudden, she totally changed her look. i will take some tic-tacs in case i start kissing her. i'm automatically attracted to beautiful women. it is like a magnet. [laughter] star, they let a you do it. hello, good to see you. you know billy bush? >> how are you doing? >> doing very well. billy: there we go. you have a nice costar here. >> absolutely. mr. trump: come on, billy.

billy: as soon as a beautiful woman shows up -- john: everything about that is gross, right? of course, it is locker room banter and are many men who have engaged in this, but this is a guy with a huge pre-existing problem. again i'm not saying -- we know , people, you and i have said things that are vulgar and lewd. donny: one reason i am not running for office. john: on top of that we have not , fat shamed people. we don't have that crudeness. donny: yet. -- yeah. john: this is a huge thing. the worst thing to happen to any candidate is a pre-existing narrative, when that gets illustrated. this is an existing problem for trump that is going nuclear. donny: in the 1992 clinton

election, you had a big poster on the wall -- it is more than stupid. any woman -- just like barack obama got every african-american that was ever kept down, offended, had anything happen in life that was about their race -- and this is now for any woman. any woman who was objectified by men. there is an anger toward women about this, there is a level of disdain with women. john: we have a clinton statement. we do not have -- there was a clinton tweet -- from hillary clinton or the campaign? tell me. which is it? no? from hillary clinton, herself? she tweeted calling this a horrific comment. so, they are already capitalizing on that. donny: there were some things that was bleeped out. it shows a disdain for women. it is not just, she is hot.

women will come out in droves and they will speak. the election ended today. and by the way there will be , more in the next few weeks. john: i want to say it this way -- i think you may be right. i don't know. maybe. there are a lot of things that happened. trump fordonald getting the election, he needs to apologize at this if he wants point. to retain any semblance of his dignity, he will need to do a lot more than he did than that statement, not really apologizing for this disgusting -- donny: communication guys, how do you apologize? john: i know. he doesn't like to apologize. clinton calls it horrific. donny: i think we will watch the wheels come off. the republican nominee was holding a roundtable with leaders, but one of the labor officials from arizona reportedly claimed that officials were not vetting immigrants so they can vote.

according to a report, trump said they are letting people go into the country so they can go and vote. this is an election still with conspiracy theories. and here is another one. it is trump's basic thesis that this election was rigged. just last weekend he told people , to monitor polling places for voter fraud. if trump loses the election, how much of these arguments will play into that? how much will be effective? john: i think one of the most disgraceful things -- we just played something that was disgraceful in a different way -- but in terms of having respect for democratic institutions in this country and for taking seriously what the responsibilities are, the notion he has suggested that somehow the election has been rigged and if he lost it was because of vote theft or corruption. telling people we cannot win or lose pennsylvania because it was stolen from us.

all of that shows incredible disrespect and disregard for the responsibilities of being the nominee are. your job as the nominee is to fight as hard as you can and if you lose to ensure the peaceful , process of transfer of power to the next person. trump willt donald try to undermine that. this is yet another sign it will go way further. donny: trump is a marketer. he has a target audience of 40 million uneducated white americans. his first strategy was to sell them on the presidency. his backup strategy is to sell them on a revolution. that basically coming out of this election, everything was rigged. they are still out to get you. we have talked about this for the trump political party and network. he all along has been hedging that even if he loses, he will stay connected to this audience. not in the form of president, but in the form of a revolutionary leader. so whether he wins it or not, he

is setting himself up. john: to be clear, trump was picking up on something that someone else said at this roundtable, but he seized on it in an aggressive way. the idea that the border patrol is being told to let illegal immigrants rushed into the -- rush into the country in order to vote for hillary clinton is insane. last night, donald trump at a town hall in new hampshire. at first glance, it seemed like it would be a practice round for his big debate against hillary clinton on sunday night. everybody was watching closely. to see if we could see clues of a different donald trump, one that shows more message discipline. here is how trump did. mr. trump: i got back from las vegas where we had a tremendous crowd of people. a lot of hispanics. latinos, they like to be called. in that area, you know that. >> karen whitaker. mr. trump: hi, karen.

>> make america great again. mr. trump: thank you. i like this audience. bernie sanders would have been legendary if he didn't make a deal with the devil. when he made that deal, his stock went down. john harwood was the worst moderator. i used to say someday he will be an anchor. guess what? he is still doing that maps. do you really think hillary clinton has been prepping? hillary clinton has been resting. ok? she is resting. she wants to build up her energy for sunday night. that is fine. let's have a fun question. >> what is one of your earliest memories as a child and why do you think it stands out? and then she says go, donald. mr. trump: the most successful people i have ever met are people that do not quit. they never give up. they don't take no for an answer. so do something to really love is not, because then it

work. and never, ever quit or give up. john: trump said the event was not a dress rehearsal for the washington university debate this weekend in st. louis. if trump shows up that way on sunday and repeats his performance, do you think that will be enough to put him in a position to maybe win the debate? and with the context from earlier in the show, maybe your answer will be no. donny: people said that was softball. questions like what are you going to say to hispanics that have been deceived by obama and clinton? i don't think he will get questions like that. if anything, this hurts him because it was a setup audience. it was nothing about the logistics that have to happen in a town hall. if he in any way or shape or , im thinks this prepares him think really it will be a disaster. he has never seen a latino person, muslim person face-to-face asking about these allegations.

hillary clinton, her negatives, there is no way to stand up and say i represent e-mails for this country. he will come face-to-face with his sins. john: you look at the way he performed, he barely interacted with anybody in the audience. he was calmer, but beyond being calmer, he didn't really react with anyone in the audience. and he was still launching crazy attacks. donny: john harwood. [laughter] john: he will be up there sunday night. he has two moderators. martha and anderson cooper. he believes anderson cooper is part of the clinton news network. donny: yes. john: so he will come in with a chip on his shoulder to begin with. i don't disallow the possibility that trump was try to take on anderson in the middle of the debate. and if he gets into a fight with the audience, moderators, if he ignores the audience like he did last night, beyond the larger issues, this will not go well for donald trump.

donny: what are we going to have to talk about? on november 8? the show is ending soon. coming up, the reverend al sharpton joins us for yet another controversial donald trump issue this week. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: a gruesome story of a 1989 rape case made its way back into the headlines. because of what donald trump said about the attack yesterday. the central park jogger case involved a group of five teenage boys accused of sexually assaulting a 28-year-old woman who survived. during the trial, the five boys said they were coerced into

confessions after days of interrogation, but they were still found guilty. in 2002, a murderer confessed to the crime and his dna matched the dna at the scene. all five were exonerated and new york city payday them a $41 million settlement. donald trump was outspoken about this case, saying that he thought the five were guilty. and yesterday, in a story published by cnn, the republican nominee repeated it by saying "they admitted they were guilty. , the fact that the case was settled with so much evidence against them is outrageous." joining us to talk about all of this is someone who played an active role in that case reverend al sharpton, host of , "politics nation." good to see you. just off the bat, your reaction to donald trump's notion that they are still guilty is what? rev. sharpton: if he wanted to say that i believed it at that time, that is one thing.

to say now after dna established , dna, we are talking scientific somebody whot confessed to it in jail was in fact the one who did it and to say it was outrageous that the evidence was against them -- in fact, the evidence vindicated them -- to me, it shows this is a level of a man who could never possibly say he is wrong. john: what is it about? in your view? no rational person, unless they had maligned motives, would go where he is going. so what is your interpretation of what he is trying to do politically? rev. sharpton: he is playing to people who have certain biases and leanings in this country. some racial, some based on their anti whatever is going on. and he is trying to play to that crowd that i will never step down, even in the face of dna evidence. i stood with these five young

men when they were first charged and they said they were coerced. one of them, when he finally got out of jail, he did 15 years and came to work at national action network. he did 15 years of the best years of his life. and for this young man to see now that after all of this donald trump is saying the evidence was against him and it is outrageous to think they would get a settlement, who is he playing to? it shows one, he will play to any kind of biase. -- bias. and that he absolutely does not second, have the capacity to apologize or say he is wrong. you are dealing with even these tapes you started the show with, he cannot even apologize for his own voice. you are going to put this man in the white house and he can't deal with his own voice. donny: there are two things. mike barnicle said there is no capacity. here are men that served chunks

of their life. and there is dna, a one in for -- four billion chance it is wrong. i never thought donald was a racist. i never heard anything. as someone who has known him, one of the great leaders of the african-american community, how can you look at it any other way but a racist at this point? how do we get him off the hook and say, is there any other way to slice it? rev. sharpton: about two years ago, i kept hitting him on the racial implications of the birther issue. which he was a champion of. he and i talked because i egregiously disagreed with them, but i met with him. he and i talked. cannot -- i told him and he says you cannot call me a racist. i said the birther issue is rooted in racism.

now, what he has done is even worse. because he is playing to what he knows is racism. if he is not a real racist, it is even worse that he will fan racists. if he will sit around and say i hate blacked and mexicans, it is worse than that if you are flaming it. flaming what you know is racism. john: it has been surprising to me. he was just saying -- we have now seen racial riots. there is so much of it. i know it is a personal thing of who is this man in his heart. i find it hard to come up with an alternative explanation. other than that he is trafficking in racist tropes at a minimum. rev. sharpton: even at his heart he does not believe it, it makes it worse to do something -- what kind of person would not believe it and do this? donny: at the in the day, it makes him a racist even if he does not believe it. john: reverend al sharpton,

thank you for joining us. pray for those in the hurricane for sure. , check out the reverend's show on sunday mornings. coming up, we will talk about ads after these ads. ♪

♪ donny: now for a favorite topic of mine -- campaign advertising. we are joined by someone who is equally obsessed, ken goldstein. some breaking news today on ad spending, they are cutting back. what are you hearing and from where? ken: it seems like donald trump is cutting back on his spending in florida, iowa, north carolina and in ohio. listen, usually -- it is a sad

time for people like you and me who are obsessed with ads because we talk about ads, we think ads matter, but we think they matter at the margin. you and john had a discussion about donald trump's recent comments and that is about not things mattering at the margin, this is about things mattering in a larger way. it suggests a little bit of re-strategizing by trump in terms of which states he is looking at, but all of that will get washed away -- sorry to use that analogy. sorry to use it with the news you are discussing in the last hour. john: one of the things you are always focused on is we are all obsessed with polls, but if we watch the pattern of spending and where ads are being placed, it tells you a lot more about the campaign than the polls. just talk about what the picture is now as you look at the pattern of ad spending and the new ways you are looking at quantifying that.

ken: this is all analysis i did one hour and a half ago before the world changed on us. but advertising is reality. you can say you are contesting a state, you can say a state is competitive, but in this new world of digital and internet, if you are not spending ad dollars in a state, you are not serious. and so we have seen where the , hillary clinton campaign is serious. they are serious in florida, nevada. they are spending money in pennsylvania so it is not some fantasy discussion if pennsylvania would possibly be in play. listen, like many things in the trump campaign, usually i can say i don't have to be in the war room because i can see what the ads are saying. i am not sure that they even have a war room or are making data driven decisions. when it comes to the clinton campaign, they are serious about florida, pennsylvania, they are serious about ohio and nevada. colorado and virginia, they think are in the bag. john: really quick, with the

trump pulling ads where they are, does that say they are giving up on those states and how does that make sense? ken: now you are making me make sense of trump campaign decisions. listen, if i was trying to make sense of these decisions, what my thinking would be -- north carolina ohio, they have to win , those anyway. pennsylvania is the pivot point. this does not look like it will be on the margins. john: thank you. we will strategize with some strategists when we come back right after this. ♪

mr. trump: i moved on her and i failed. i will admit it. i did try to -- her. i took her out furniture shopping. she wanted to get some furniture.

i said i will show you where they have some nice furniture. [laughter] mr. trump: i moved on her like a -- she was married. all of a sudden, she now has the big phony hair -- she has totally changed her looks. i will take some tic-tacs in case i start kissing her. i'm automatically attracted to beautiful women. it is like a magnet. when you are a star, they let you do it. you can do anything. billy: whatever you want. mr. trump: hello, how are you? terrific. >> good to meet you. mr. trump: you know billy bush. billy: nice to see you. >> are you ready to be a soap star? mr. trump: we are ready. john: that was a replay of the video that is making the rounds pretty much everywhere. the hot mic moment of donald trump in 2005. it was released by the washington post. hillary's campaign has taken to twitter, saying "we cannot allow this man to be president." her running mate tim kaine told reporters in las vegas just now

that the video makes him "sick to my stomach." with us from chicago, the former obama's 2008 brock campaign. and joining us from d.c. is john, a longtime strategist who worked on rick santorum's campaign. john, i want to start with you as the republican on the panel. john: thank you. john: you look like a bouncer at studio 54, but beyond that -- i like bouncers at studio 54. that is a compliment. my friend donny deutsch here says the election is over because of this tape. i would like to hear your argument about why that is not true. john b.: i have learned in doing this for 30 some years, things are never as bad as you think they are and never as good as you think. they are very fluid. we will see what happens in the next 48 hours.

vicki is going to be the first , thing the press will do is go to senate and congressional candidates in tough races and ask them to comment on it. they will either say he apologized, it was a long time ago, i don't condone it, but there are bigger issues. or they will throw him under the bus. and that is when we will determine how this goes. donny: these are guys who are running for office and they go home to wives and have daughters. how can they brush it off? no matter where your politics are, you just -- from a human and cell survival point of view, how does anybody not business -- how does anybody dismiss themselves from it? john b.: i cannot say in strong enough terms that this was an inappropriate moment. i think it was surprising. maybe a little less surprising that donald trump said it. perhaps the most surprising thing was he said he tried something and failed. hillary clinton has said a lot

of things that are strange. bill clinton has said a lot of things that are strange. what has become the norm is the bizarre behavior and people have a comfort level for it now, more than the past. we will know in the next 48 hours whether this is going to be one of those things that is the final straw, or people have come to expect this like they did when he went after john mccain. john: i think the issue is those things do not qualify as strange comments on donald trump's part. and that is not how a lot of voters will see them. just from a standpoint of tactics and strategy -- you have worked on a presidential campaign -- what is the right way for them to handle this and prosecute it effectively in the days before the debate? hari: i think the format does not really allow for direct interaction. so they will have to be thoughtful and hillary will have to be thoughtful on how she

approaches this. to the earlier question, this is a devastating comment for donald trump because this affects the demographic groups he needs to move and where he has lost ground. white suburban women. i mean, mitt romney won white college-educated women 52% to 46%. and donald trump is losing them. the groups he needs to run up the score with he is losing badly. and this video goes directly to them. john: it seems to me that is the heart of the issue here. trump has said offensive things before. some of them he has laughed off and some of them he has paid a price for. at this stage in the election, the available votes he needs are those votes, right? john b.: i work a lot in pennsylvania and i can tell you where he is still struggling a little bit are moderate, white college-educated women in the southeast. this certainly is not going to help with that demographic,

especially coming off of mike pence's very positive debate performance. some are saying too bad mike pence is not at the top of the ticket. i think they had a little momentum, but this derails that. donny: let's go back to the democrat. i have a thesis there are three or four of these to come. this is a behavior pattern over 30 years. as somebody who has been in this business it is a pretty good , guess to think we will see more of these, right? hari: i appreciate john working for mike pence 2020 there. [laughter] there might be other comments. we are at a saturation point with donald trump and his comments. i think what really is going to happen here is feelings will start to harden. we will see it with suburban women.

there was a franklin and marshall poll in pennsylvania over the summer where he was already down 30 in the southeast counties, primarily because of women. we are going to also see that with independents. he was doing well earlier this summer. there was a cnn poll postdebate that is a 21 point swing in favor of hillary clinton. donald trump was winning before. he is not losing by 14 points. -- now losing by 14 points. this video will go straight to the independent vote. john: hari, john, i believe this is the first time you both have been on this show. if that is true, we need to have you back again. you are both great. coming up, we will talk about this hot mic video and the debate. and if you are watching us in d.c., you can listen to us on the radio radio on 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

♪ donny: welcome back. john, you have been in this business a long time. can you think of any event four or five weeks out, or even in a campaign, that can be as devastating as this? john: look, one of the key elements of this thing is the audio and the video. there are a million things candidates and campaigns can say, and if they are not captured on video or audio, they have no life. people read them on the page, but they don't get them on television. the 47% video was a tough thing for romney. did it change the election? no. did it set them back at an important time? it reinforced a lot of people's views of what romney thought. it played to an existing

narrative that romney was a really rich guy and did not care about the country. the combination of something that reinforces an existing narrative and is captured on audio and video which is something that makes for an explosive, potentially devastating campaign moment. and this has all of those characteristics. plus, it is so much like everybody that imagines in their mind of what trump is like in private. that is what people either believe or suspect or fear he is like in private. donny: there is a difference between being a player and a misogynist. some of those words -- grabbing her, the "b" word. and it is interesting when you , talk about race, disabled people, women, there seems to be such hatred for other human beings other than himself. it is so apparent and that is an ugliness that i don't think any educated voter can vote for as a human being. john: yes.

and i think again, as i said before right after the first debate, that trump has gotten most trouble when he attacks private citizens. we have a huge tolerance for politicians talking bad about each other. nobody cares. but when you talk about judge curiel, or this unnamed woman he is talking about putting the moves on and being rebuffed, she is not named, but some person. and it is showing a kind of this is what -- there is something about the hot mic element that is even worse. there is an element that this is the secret, true -- when trump does not think the cameras are on, this is how he is talking. and he dismisses it and says it is locker room talk, but for a lot of people that talk reflects the truer self. we say to ourselves that is the locker room talk? that is going to be the oval office talk if he becomes president. donny: we are joined by jenna

johnson. what are you working on today? [laughter] donny: what were you working on? it was about voter access, but did that story get thrown into the pail? jenna: my editor just picked it up. so, hopefully it will be online at some point. i'm sure everybody will jump to read it. it is still a very important issue. john: any hot mic moments involved? [laughter] john: if not, i think you are in trouble. jenna: no. no hot mic issues. donny: speaking of voter access, to trump's point, it is true that illegal immigrants can come into the country and vote, correct? jenna: that is not true. donny: amazing. john, i told you that was not true. john: he is very good about these things. we have both of you here. thank you for being on the show. i want to ask you both for a quick reaction.

one of you covers donald trump regularly and one does not. but i want to get your sense. the video is out and it seems like it is a seismic moment in the campaign. jenna, what do you think the trump's reaction will be? and then, you can tell me what you think of the broader impact this will be on the campaign dynamics going into the second debate. first jenna. jenna: the campaign very quickly reacted to this and acknowledged this was a conversation that he did have. they brushed it off as being locker room banter. and he sort of apologized for it, saying that he apologized if anybody was offended by it. but there are already a lot of people on twitter saying he should denounce these comments. he should say he should not have said these things about women. donny: i want to ask you as a woman, take your reporter hat off, as a woman, can you excuse this? i don't know if you are a mom, or a daughter, or a woman.

what was your reaction? take your reporter hat off. jenna: i read the transcript earlier today when we first got it and thought, wow, this is very offensive. i did watch the video and hearing it and hearing the tone in which it is said is different than just reading it. i think there are going to be a lot of women across the country who are going to hear these things and are going to be really offended by it. again, a lot of donald trump's core supporters say he could do anything and they are not going to stop supporting him. those are not the people he need s to win over. he is behind hillary clinton right now. he needs people beyond just this -- just this core group of supporters. if there were people kind of on the fence about things, especially women, especially

college educated women, i think they might have a hard time voting for someone who says things like this behind the bus door. john: yamiche, your first thoughts on the impact of this tape. yamiche: my first thoughts are, it kind of echoes what jenna said. this idea that he would not lose any supporters that are already his core supporters. you can battle with the beauty queen and call her miss piggy. and that you call her miss housekeeper and you do not lose your core support, then that shows you what kind of candidate he is. the issue is whether or not he can get other people to get on board with him. in some ways it is tough because there is idea that he is putting out there that is taking that you should not trust the media. the media is out to get him. the idea that now the washington post is uncovering this audio of him and he is saying i was a private citizen, this is locker room talk. so the idea is yes there are , definitely people that will be turned off by this. the suburban voters. those women voters that he

really wants. but i will tell you i have , talked to a lot of undecided voters, i watched the first debate with undecided voters at a republican party and they were -- there were young women there that even with the beauty queen comments that they didn't see that was anything that would make them not go for him. that left me thinking that he is a teflon candidate. whether or not this will go forward -- he started off saying people are coming here illegally to vote and then he said the central park five, who have been exonerated and settled with the city for being forced to give false confessions, saying they were guilty. now you have this audio. so that is three things just in one day. john: if you think about those three things. them in the view of many, it has been a racial dog whistle. the people coming across the border as illegal immigrants voting for hillary clinton have latino implications.

this video has implications for women. those are three groups that comprise a large part of the american electorate and we note donald trump has a base. but offending those three voter segments in one day would seem to be a problem in terms of what he needs to do to get above of his current ceiling is about 42% -- ceiling, which is about 42% of the electorate, no? yamiche: i think that is definitely problematic. i have been reaching out to some republicans i know and i have heard radio silence because i think they are wondering and a lot of the establishment republicans are wondering how he will turn this corner into this debate because hillary clinton has already reacted. her campaign sent out statements about the central park five, tweeting about this new audio. so i think all of those things have been going on. and i have been talking to pollsters about this race and who he is offending and the pollsters tell me when he says

that illegal immigrants will come here and vote and talk about the central park five case, that is only hitting one group. they are telling me when he goes after mexicans, that they are rapists and criminals, the suburban white women will say they are offended. donny: we have to go. by the way, the tape takes it to a whole other level. thank you. coming up, some spoilers right after this. ♪

♪ john: for the past four weeks, two of our bloomberg politics reporters have been crunching the numbers in the battleground states across this country.

this week they focus on the , impact of third-party candidates. joining us now are the two men. steve here on our set. in ohio, we have sasha. thank you guys for coming in. steve, i have a question for you. what makes the threat of these third-party candidates different? steve: the unpopularity with hillary clinton and donald trump. we saw it today with donald trump. hillary clinton has not necessarily wowed her coalition either. and both of them are flirting unapprovalroval -- ratings nearing 60%. a lot of voters are looking for different options and third-party candidates are the natural place to go. john: they are gary johnson, the libertarian candidate, and the green party candidate. now having about 10% of the polls. donny: sasha, if i am clinton, who should i be worried about concerning vulnerable voters? sasha: the ones that are not necessarily normal voters.

the millennials, sanders voters. they don't have a history of voting. i think that is a little bit of a difference from what trump sees where the types of people he could lose to the third-party candidates would be over-right voters better a core part of the republican base. donny: steve, where else should hillary be concerned? where will they panic when they see a move? steve: i think there was this assumption early on in the race that donald trump would be most affected by third-party candidates especially because , the best one in the race seems to be gary johnson. yet, we have seen hillary clinton lose voters to people that sasha was just mentioning. the young voters. some of the suburban voters. that is a big deal in swing states because any movement in swing states matters.

but it matters in other states, too. we looked at a few of them in pennsylvania, virginia, colorado and new mexico which is gary johnson's home state. these are all states that should lean democrat. but, in those states if a , third-party votes are coming out of hillary clinton's column, concerne if it gets above 13%, 15% in virginia. 16% in colorado. that is when they need to start worrying. john: red states, or pink states, that donald trump has to worry about third parties in? sasha: we looked at the opposite. what if the surge was coming out of trump's coalition? in states that the democrats were not actively competing. you start to see the same thing. you start to get between 15% and 20%, johnson more so than stein, these states will be put into play without hillary clinton spending a dime.

or campaigning there. she churns out this core democratic base and it could be a win number where they are drawing on evenly from the republican. john: same question. in the end, gary johnson is unlikely to make any of the debates. he has made mistakes. is johnson going to matter or not on election day or the millennial votes end up with hillary clinton or stay home? which is true? sasha: it does not seem like johnson is doing himself any favors. arguably, the one thing he has done right was not to define himself clearly. i think it is hard to find what johnson is running on. and it leaves it possible that he can take from both sides. we thought the libertarian would pull from the republican. this affects democrats just as much. john: sasha, steve, fantastic. thank you both. [applause] donny: best part of the show. john: thank you both. you can check out their

battleground 2016 series on bloombergpolitics.com. they will be back next week with their next installment. i cannot wait. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: on sunday, i will not be with donny deutsch. although it was great to spend friday with him. i will be with my normal partner, mark halperin, for the pregame show in st. louis for the second debate happening. you can watch it on bloomberg television, twitter. from donny and i, we say to you, sayonara. ♪

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