vonnie: we are going to take you from st. louis to istanbul and cover story out of south africa and the united kingdom in the next hour. donald trump and hillary clinton traded salacious charges about past scandals discussing health care, defense, and trade in the second presidential debate. we will recap the personal attacks and the policies. up.: mexican peso moving the number two currency forecaster, the u.s. dollar is not buying whatever the outcome of the presidential election. he will get his outlook this hour. talks at theo energy congress in istanbul -- the energy conference in istanbul. about 30 minutes into the trading day in the u.s.

let's head to the market desk for julie hyman has the latest. : we got energy stocks is the best performers in the s&p 500 today. that itself. higher -- that is helping to push stocks higher. the mexican peso rallying. seems as though the outcome already being pricing to the u.s. equity market is a victory for hillary clinton. when we saw the last debate occur and see what perceived as winning, without the peso rally in stocks rallied to some extent. oil is a big part of the story also. brent crude is hitting a one-year high. you have nymex crude hitting not necessarily a high on a historical basis, but hit a high last week and now above 5120 -- above $51 a barrel as we got comments from vladimir putin at a meeting of opec officials in

istanbul saying russia could freeze or even cut output. all of this causing a big rally in oil prices today. we are watching the japanese yen after we heard the bank of japan saying the 10 year target could go under 0% of the bank of japan can lower both ends of the yield curve. the dollar rising versus the yen and the wake of those comments, up 6/10 of 1%. anding back to the u.s. talking the individual movers we are watching -- twitter is once again on the list as it seems as though the bid for the company are evaporating. reports late last week in over the weekend saying salesforce the longer interested, disney and interested, apple not interested. all of the bidders mentioned as potential bidders for the company now not. twitter shares trading sharply

lower. salesforce is trading higher. it's investors and analysts had not been positive on a potential acquisition. finally dover, a manufacturing conglomerate and makes engineered systems including , it is in ak parts lot of different businesses in the company says there is weakness across the board and cited slow oil spending and 5% of the a 4% or klein revenues. of declined revenues. phrase,will borrow your we were lower earlier for the fourth consecutive day. look at the rebound. up by 1/10 of 1%. don't forget, it is up for a second week last week, longest losing run for almost a month, but it is those comments from vladimir putin better russia could take part in an oil freeze

or oil cut. in a positive -- let's get to deutsche bank, down 3.8% driving down the bank, of 2% and negotiations of the doj and u.s. over that your long investigation over its handling of mortgage-backed securities. itsany's build reporting in sunday's addition, the ceo not able to reach an agreement in washington. they're considering increasing its stake in 25% from 10%. it is all happening for deutsche bank while tears are rising. this is sterling versus the dollar since the beginning of last week. l6 .1% intraday on friday. that was a massive moves. this is a six day move. that is the biggest weekly move in a long time.

the fears are we are heading for a hard brexit. the latest slide may carry more costs. we will ask our next guest about that. golden sterling and golden dollars. golden sterling since last monday, is up i .5 of 1% -- is up by .5% of 1%. gold in dollars is down by 4.6%. the wreck trick from fed officials seem that a rate hike is on the cards for december. what a wonderful divergence. vonnie: thank you. let's check in on a bloomberg's word news. >> and afghanistan, a police official says he will have been killed in a suicide car bombing

in the capital. the official said the attack happened in the city and that can police officers and four civilians were killed. the city has been under attack by taliban militants who officials say enter the city earlier in the day. two missiles says were fired in the direction of an american destroyer. the uss mason in the persian gulf. officials say they came from territory held by shiite rebels in yemen. the missile fire comes after a ballistic missile launch from yemen apparently targeted a saudi airbase near mecca. it was the deepest strike yet. and for president francois whole lot since he is not yet decided if he will meet with president vladimir putin when the russian leader comes to paris 90's from now. thatoise alonso says action in syria and people and aleppo are suffering were crimes. that will be the subject of a national investigation. oliver hart and bank ahlstrom

were awarded the 2016 nobel prize in economics for the contribution to contract theory. the world swedish academy made the announcement later today. newacademy says that theoretical tools created by the men are valuable to the understanding of the life contracts and institutions as well as potential pitfalls and contract design. global news 24 hours a day, powered by 2400 journalists, in more than 150 news bureaus across the world. this is bloomberg. vonnie: thank you. now to that intense u.s. presidential debate. 90 minutes, hillary clinton and donald trump sparred over tapes, terrorism, taxes and other hot topics. >> you bragging sexually assaulted women. do you understand that? >> i don't think you understood what was said. this was locker room talk. i will not proud of it. to my family and american people.

ms. clinton: it is not only women with this video that raises questions about his fitness to be our president. because he has also targeted immigrants, african-americans, latinos, people with disabilities, pows, muslims, and so many others. so this is who donald trump is and i think it is very important for us to make clear to our children that our country really is great because we are good. dividedp: we have a nation because of people like her, and believe me, just tremendous hate her heart. when she said deplorables, she meant it, in which he said -- when she said irredeemable, that might be worse. i hate to say it, but if i win, i am going to instruct my attorney general to get a

special prosecutor to look into your situation because there has never been so many lies, so much deception, there has never been anything like it. ms. clinton: it is just awfully good that someone with the temperament of donald is not in charge of the law in our country. mr. trump: because you would be in jail. [applause] vonnie: our washington bureau chief megan murphy joins us now from st. louis, the site of last night's debate. crazy train with millions of people. did we learn anything new about the candidates or their policies last night during the crazy train? train, i have not heard that when yet. we have to put this into context. incredibly nasty, but it was largely that first 30 to 35 minutes of the debate that we heard a lot of policy for the second hour.

one thing that was interesting that donald trump appear to have done his homework on certain topics, and particularly obamacare, syria, national security, and isis and had more coherent policy arguments that he has put forth in the previous to be with hillary clinton and also had a pretty brutal exchange with her on taxes where it was clear he had done his homework. the firstebate, for 30 minutes, the profound nastiness and personal insults hurled. donald trump talking about appointing a special prosecutor to prosecute hillary clinton, locker up is a common catchphrase. what you saw is donald trump really going down into the trenches knowing that is the political moment of his life. he has to revive a truly flailing campaign. if you do enough last night? so.t of the base think vonnie: right.

there is an emergency call for the house gop today, 247, deciding what to do next strategy-wise for the party. emergency call, it was scheduled, but they are really expected to discuss what they are going to do going forward. we have two things on her plate this morning, how is mike pence went to respond? there was an externally moment last night. donald trump say he did not agree with the bp -- vp's stance on syria. which -- we saw a two exodus of republican figures in light of that begins a released on friday with these very lewd sexually aggressive comments trump made in 2005 now been released to the public. we are watching to see if he has calmed these figures.

hasres like john mccain called him to withdraw. will they stay on board of swallow their concerns and stay on what you called the crazy train? if mitch mcconnell rescind their support, is that it? does trump last until november 8? megan: paul ryan had an opportunity and a golden opportunity this week and at his own festival and wisconsin to publicly denounce donald trump resent his support. he did not choose to do that. in a very brief comment, he sidestepped the entire issue saying it was a matter of can learn, but never mentioning trump combining. -- trump by name. damaging hisally own future by being on the fence? a lot of people said his window to come out as the moral arbiter of the party has definitely passed. he does get out now, it may be

too little too late. vonnie: megan murphy, thank you. you can follow all the politics action. mark: coming right up, the peso rallying. we are going to track the correlation with one of the world's most accuracy currency forecasters. this is bloomberg. ♪.

♪ vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg markets." i'm vonnie quinn in new york. mark: live from london, i am mark barton. let's get to one of the most telling charts of the day.

take a look at this terminal. u.s.g the first presidential debate, the mexican peso called hillary clinton as the clear winner over donald trump. similare are seeing signals following the second debate, the pace of tending to fall on trump's triumphs, rising on the back of these setbacks. joining us from johannesburg on mosthone is the second currency forecasters by bloomberg. thank you very much, john, for joining us this afternoon. john: thank you, my pleasure. mark: we love watching this peso -dollar chart, a proxy for trump's fortunes. have we seen the lows for the peso. a couple of these ago, the peso hitting it lows against the dollar going back to 1971. is the worst over for the peso?

john: that is what the markets are telling you. you can look at some of the bidding markets as well. the probability of trump winning is down to 20%. market saying it is almost a done thing. hillary could have a moment of self-destruction, but the market is now past election results are ready. mark: interestingly, john, let's a trump was to win, the dollar is going to rise. is it a win/win the matter the election? market isink the sending out qs about which election will be better for the dollar. a trump election should be dollar positive. most of all, trump is the

positive for the dollar. secondly, his support for fiscal stimulus essentially through tax cuts, and historically, we have seen fiscal policy be more positive due to u.s. interest rate. thirdly, and the real big one, the tech holiday he proposes which could generate a huge amount of inflows back into the u.s. both candidates support all three of those policies. i think it is widely accepted that trump is more likely to push ahead with any of those. they trump the tree would be positive -- a trump victory would be dollar positive. but the odds of it happening are very low. i would expect the dollar would rally. vonnie: is the glory of that that a hillary clinton win would be a dollar negative?

we're looking for a rate hike in december. john: i think the dollar is passed that. when you go back to january, the dollar was down. unless we get an uptick in u.s. markets, it will not go back to forecasting to that extent. the cycle has turned. going back to the clinton victory, it is now largely passed. i don't think you'll get a large market reaction. vonnie: who will be the beneficiaries if the dollar is passed its best? what other currencies well strengthen the dollar begins to weaken? john: pretty much everything. it is a complete reversal of what we have seen in the past

two years. massive dollar strength. 2015, the dollar depreciated against every other currency in the world. when the dollar trend turns, it is the opposite. there will be some exceptions, question is that the dollars on a slightly getting bias. mark: we got to talk about sterling. i got a chart. it is a pound-dollar, the weekly moves. biggest with the move since the referendum. in 2016, we have seen a lot of volatility in this exchange rate. it has been among the most volatile. going back to the financial -- it is been among the most volatile periods in the financial crisis. how low do sterling go?

john: i have been reading your reports talking about this. the bottom line to me is sterling is heavier. would not rule it out going weaker. it is a strong buy at these levels. even if it is a hard exit, it is overdone -- even if it is a hard brexit, it is overdone. we may be due for a couple of months of weakness. investors have started to take the opportunity of a week sterling. rand.let's talk about the is it when to book this five-year losing trend as investors clamor for yield? john: i think so.

it is past its worst. you mentioned sterling volatility early affecting the rrand. a lot of local politics driving it here. rand perhaps not going to be the most volatile. passing theare mexican peso. is now 6% undervalued. most of the correction has already been done. down to 13 at the end of next year. still a lot of volatility. , the the u.s. election mexican peso will be -- mark: john, thank you for

chatting to us about the peso, the rand, the pound, and the dollar. go ahead, we will look at the stock will be early in the u.s. session, including big pharma movers like mylan. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ london and new york, i mark barton. vonnie: and i'm vonnie quinn. you are watching "bloomberg markets." let's head to the markets desk. julie hyman has the latest. julie: mylan is in the news after posting a three-year low on friday. the shares are popping today because the company has reached a settlement with the u.s. government and will be paying $465 million in a settlement over how to charge medicaid for the epipen. that hast allergy shot come under fire because of mylan's pricing practices and questions about whether it overcharged medicaid. those shares popping. we are watching merck and

bristol-myers squibb. they are holding a meeting and merck resented the results of the study of it long cancer medication that reduced the risk of death for cancer progression by you percent and a study -- progression by 50% in a steady. on the flipside, bristol-myers did not show devo an advancedlts in trial. merck? [laughter] mark: merck barton. while rising. brent getting it highest rising. it will go to istanbul for an update.

arabia. the oilt the head of industry and asked him what he thought about talks between iran

and russia. producers would reach a consensus. direction.ng in that i am not expecting anything soon. the next couple of days getting to the consensus. >> i am sure everyone will come to a decision that is reasonable and takes into account everyone's circumstances. the other thing we are watching is whether opec will be able to make progress in terms of defining the production quotas. course on a closing note, there has not been a decision taken yet and not expected soon. what are you hearing from executives on the ground? >> from what we have been

hearing from the movers and shakers, including the ceo, he to be a7 is going difficult oil recovery. the other aspect is bob dudley. listen to what he has to say in terms of where prices are going. >> we have said prices in the $55 range. feels like it is headed in that direction. we have no special insights about the opec direction. they are all talking. there has been agreements and understandings between countries that may have been more difficult a year or two ago. president hass chipped into the conversation and said they are not sustainable at the current level. we will have to wait and see how much more ground they can make up for and whether they can cover the cracks in opec. we're hearing rumblings from

happy about the way the barrels are being counted. vonnie: i was going to ask you how much leverage they have when it comes to the executives. to talk their interest up the price of oil of course. , yes.is you could argue the leverage is fairly limited. they have a lot of infrastructure investments around the world. a say in terms of talking up the oil price. ultimately it will come down to a collective decision. you have to bring everyone around the table to bring enough oil out of the market. that is why it will be key to join the agreement.

opec has not really agreed yet and that will be one difficult ride. >> thank you. coming up, francine lacqua sat down with the governor. here you go lower from this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: you are watching bloomberg. i am vonnie quinn. mark: i am mark barton. this is her global business report. the swiss national bank has held interest rates in negative territory for almost two years. what is the next move? >> the company has set to halt customerss after

reported replacement model caught fire. >> a u.s. economy is near gainful employment, but that does not mean everyone who wants a job has a job. how do you define negative employment? >> cutting interest rates further into negative territory is needed. >> you have to distinguish between exchange rates channel. will you be comfortable going further into negative territory? >> we have been quite far but we have room to go further if necessary. industrial production is big and an expected increase for a second month supporting

expectations of a river i've -- of a revival. the prime minister's government. theut rose in august from previous month when it decreased .7%. surveyian estimate in a called for an -- call for a drop. u.s. and european equities are in for a bumpy ride through the end of the year according to goldman sachs. exacerbatedl risk by a weak economy in europe make the markets vulnerable to declines in the next three months. the firm projects the s&p 500 and the stock six europe 600 will drop by about 2% by december. past theries to move crisis over exploding smartphone batteries. a person familiar with the matters said the government temporarily halting production of the high end note seven phone.

this move comes as the wireless companies and australia have stopped selling them after replacement devices were overheating and bursting into flames. vonnie: time for the quick take. the u.s. recovery is putting people back to work, and the growing economy is on its way to restoring full employment. economists talk about full employment. they do not mean everyone has a job. full employment means unemployment has fallen to the lowest possible level without evoking inflation. the u.s. according to estimates, a jobless rate of about 5%. since the u.s. recovery began in 2009, global employment rose. almost 150 million at the end of 2015. the number of unemployed has shrunk.

as the labor market tightens, janet yellen and the federal reserve are debating timing for rate increases. the problem is that there is more uncertainty than usual over how many people want jobs making it hard to pinpoint how much unemployment has to be tolerated. here is the background. the government considers unemployed all who do not have a job, who have actively looked for one and are available for work. a wider measure would count other potential jobseekers as well. 1.8 million people were marginally a catch to the labor force at the end of 2015. meaning that they wanted a job and have looked for one in the previous six months. economists, including the fed policymakers are divided about how close the economy is to full employment. something that short-term interest rate should rise soon. others think that rate should be

held as he wrote for longer. work for longer. -- lower for longer. head to bloomberg.com for more stories. mark: the imf meetings in washington over the weekend. governor harry was emphatic in and monetarysion policy. he spoke with francine lacqua in an exclusive interview from washington. being we keepe long-term interest rates around zero, and if necessary, we could reduce a target rate of 10 year gdp lower than 0%. it would depend on the economic inflation output.

a this rate we will keep it point to make a smooth move. --necessary, we can readers reduce short-term and long-term interest rates. if we are successful, then wouldlly 10 year gdp rate go up. is what the markets are trying to understand. they are concerned you may have to sell to stay at around zero. this may be perceived as tapering. time we made it quite clear this process would basically continue. with this process coupled with negative interest rates, we have

been able to achieve smooth outcome. we can reduce the program soon. we have to maintain the low level of interest rate to tomulate the economy, and achieve the 2% inflation packet. >> are you telling me even if the 10 year yield goes to negative territory, you will not what we? >> i think have made is to change our management from monetary-based control. is longost important

and interest rates. in order to achieve that, we would increase the process. this is a technical marker. policy intention is to maintain very accommodative monetary policy. maintain low interest rate from short to long. market what does the perceive? >> i don't think markets this kind of tapering. to exit from aay -- accommodative

expansion by way of reducing the amount. not intend todo exit from accommodative expansion at this state. we will continue or even strengthen monetary easing in the coming months and years to achieve inflation. said ittime being, as i would continue. mark: the bank of japan governor and an exclusive interview with francine lacqua. vonnie: time for another bailout for greece. meeting in luxembourg to discuss the next move. this is bloomberg. ♪

let's live from london and new york, i am mark barton. i am vonnie quinn. now to luxembourg. withberg kerley is there the latest. what are we hearing about the 2.8 potential payout? does greece deserve another aid -- another aid package? >> it seems like we could see a possible delay of part of the 2.8 billion euros from greece here and to unofficial luxembourg. 1.7 billion euros could be delayed until late october. news.erly optimistic

also spoke with the cypress finance minister in luxembourg. what greecehat really needs is that relief. >> potential that relief until we reach that point. continue, and the hope that we are able to make a step in that direction. >> the german finance minister is still quite reluctant to accept the good relief for greece. he did not say anything yet here in luxembourg. >> that is not surprising. how much can they concentrate on greece with brexit on all of their minds? of course brexit not

officially on the agenda, but dominating the sidelines. every minister we have talked with so far has something to say. the french finance minister says we should not lose any time. the cypress finance ministers saying there can be no benefits of the obligation. the brexit discussions in luxembourg. have a listen. >> you must be there capable of reducing uncertainty. it must not be a punish and four note -- punishment for nobody. and must not be a punishment for citizens of the rest of the eu. we must have a discussion of

principles. so exit must not be a punishment. thee a little more from commissioner here on brexit. mark: the eu financial tax was proposed five years ago. are we any closer to ending the stalemate? >> in fact, we may not be as close as ideal. meeting that is supposed to be on the financial transaction tax is only 10 countries because they did not damage to reach universal approval. this meeting might not even happen according to the finance minister leaving negotiations.

that if someer cannot attend wayne made not even hear about the financial transaction tax later today. we could see more delays on a story that is almost as old as the financial greek crisis. vonnie: thank you for joining. mark: coming up, sterling made not even hear about the financial transaction tax later today. we could see more delays last week. we will examine a warning that liquidity is far worse than anyone imagined. 35 minutes away from the end of the monday session. earlier today we were down 5.6%. it looked like we were heading to the fourth consecutive day of declines. .hat a turnaround we have seen comments from vladimir putin who said that russia is ready to

heart in a freeze in oil production. boosting oil and energy related stocks. stocks rising. have a look at what is happening in the currency market. continues.decline the biggest weekly fall for the pound against the dollar since the weaker brexit last week. what a friday. a friday that few of us will forget. 6% overnight decline by the end of the session. a mere 1.5%. that is it for the market. the european close next. ♪

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i am vonnie quinn. you are watching the european close on bloomberg markets. ♪ from st. louisu to london. stories from turkey and germany and more. here is what we are watching today. sterling resuming its decline as wait or clues about the cause of the flash crash and whether britain is truly headed for a hard brexit at the same time. bank of america rules banks of liquidity via -- vanishing in times of stress. >> donald trump and hillary clinton talking about past scandals. opera discussing the fence and trade in the second debate. a recap of personal attacks and policy. a bold