tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg October 12, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EDT
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perspective, the shorts have been as short as they can be. do you believe that grexit will rise again? we will hear more in parliament today. radarlook at the risk with the volumes moving things overnight. we should talk about oil prices and mixed messages from the russians. the 50 mark.around capitalee the growditures and this could funding and it will
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spare more. >> there is a little bit of a respite for the ron. that they have had no communications with the ratings agency and it will go down. dividede showing how the rhetoric is and this is what we are focused on. and.re is rosalind chin -- rosalind chin. however, she wants the lawmakers to give space to
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negotiate. there is concerns that there was a gung ho approach negotiations and said that this was the worst performing currency against the greenback this month. donald trump is on a twitter paulsive and he blasted ryan as ineffective. other party leaders condemned his volker comments. >> the election will determine whether we remain a free country controlledorrupt and by foreign governments. the election of clinton would lead to the destruction of the country. >> the australian government has and the price yield
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has gone low with the commodity prices. moving the country's step possibility of an increase back on the table. gordon was order to make an appearance and it was one month before -- local news is 24 hours a day. stories on ourre website. >> thank you very much. there is a little bit of skittishness tonight.
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. oil prices now and it is good to see you from russia's morning -- morning. we are easing into the future. >> absolutely. it is a rare signal. it is a signal of possible easing and the challenge that russia faces is cutting the kid thed they want to inflation down with a lot of that they prioritize the central bank credibility over analyst growth and one
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inflow and significant risk with international finance markets. and wes a capital inflow to the exchange we have to keep the interest rate high. and, after weary reach the inflation target, we will ease the monetary policy. what is the one thing that central banks, what the federal reserve and the bank of japan should do to avoid the unintended consequences?
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think the central banks face a difficult task, considering the limited impact and the loose monetary policy. they are working hard to achieve their goals. russia faces a tollenge and they are having get the inflation and, in terms of brexit in the rate like -- rate hike, it is what we are seeing. >> thank you. it is 7:45 and we will be speaking to the bank ceo.
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and thea good price marginal supply council will go quickly. it will be comfortable for everybody and we will see higher .rices because of that reason >> it is not just the impact of russia. quotas.e players and you have the opec production history andhey have there needs to be a demonstrable change. some of the most important are not going to be some of thecut and
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picture of what is producing what. >> we have seen what it is telling you. looking at the market willnging the bond and it be different. >> thank you very much. stay with us. ahead to up, we look the federal reserve minutes and how much the fmoc is turning it up. the pound is on the rebound. risky business in south
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vehicles in the next decade. improvement will get wins for more customers. >> we have how much they will and it may beure terms of percentage. we will still see the internal combustion engine. >> speaking to bloomberg at the energy congress, he said he will be looking at tilt here, london, and new york. mentioned, it is going we will see more in the
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future. much.nk you very tape.flation data at the >> at 10:00, it was the biggest and we will if the midday mortgage. >> minutes from the f foam oc meeting couldc show the depth. >> ultrahigh net worth in the dio with the executive founder of the union group. let me ask you what you are expecting to see and how much pressure you think janet yellen is under.
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should be allowed to vote on the plan. it was despite the fact that she railed on this subject. tonightve the minutes and they may show the pressure andjanet yellen is under there is a 58% chance of a hike it is the most amount of dissent in five years in the f mosys. >> bloomberg intelligence salestes $11.1 billion in . >> let's take a look at the fmo see minutes. >> it is a bit early for a cold shower.
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it flatlined in the euros and that is important. and thatgetting better could be a problem. it will be interesting to see be they react and a will putting more into place and this is the more negative position with more being piled on. there is a pound pop and a bit of an idea. it is even higher on the british pound. >> back to you. crude oil is stabilizing the
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market. >> the energy minister has left amory joins us now from istanbul. it is great to see you. give us the state of play. day ofs an official unofficial talks and to say this is a key member of the cartel would be an understatement and anre is a bit of understanding of the russian willingness to finally do a deal and where they are coming from, in terms of supplies. the energy minister is trying to we hadp confusion and with the news agency
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saying they had backtracked and would do what the kremlin had deemed necessary. freezer putin said that now.eded right take a listen. >> i think that it makes sense to talk about this and one year is a long time for volatility with specific factors that could have an influence on the individual and moral character. it monitored is situation inside. six months of volatility with saudimeframe and the
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delegation will not the here. >> they are not here. what is the agenda today. -- today? >> the meeting will take place theoon and it seems that work is done and it is really about details and who will bear the brunt of this. it is not clear what will happen and there seems to be an exemption and what does it mean? there is a deal and it is all about getting some clarity on what the deal will materialize
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to. >> thank you. let's bring you some breaking news. we have ericsson telling the markets that the third quarter results are going to be significantly lower. detail witha lot of and thear on year negative industry trend has further reduced the costs of the sales. lower.t will be interesting and we will keep an eye on that story, because it may have consequences with ericsson. >> this is significant, in and
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of itself. we are talking about the opec secretary general and this is at be speaking tol bloomberg. they prepare the first foray into the international bond market. fromm is joining us now dubai. it is good to have you on the program. what all caps happened with the bond sales there is a series of roadshows. of a are on the cusp told we arere between 10 and 15, making it the
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largest font initiative with the yield rates this year. you mentioned the currency and with a full plate arabia had their eye on this. obviously, they are facing negative rates and the question is the offering plan with and if there are gulf issuances. yes. it is a big unknown and the region would like this
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and it is regularly established andrated to levels higher you can bear in mind that this it may bedi debut and a bit out of reach. theproxy in the market is andi electricity company this has been a proxy for the and it is a debut with this amount of money. >> is a great context here. may has excepted that
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parliament should accept the united kingdom leaves the european union. for the space with and there was a gung ho approach to negotiations .ll stop >> where do you expect the pound to think theyat you will make, in terms of interns -- in-- terms of assumptions. forget that negative interest rates will be off of
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the table. hand, it is andaordinarily undervalued we will be at 159. once there is a long one here and you can tell me the risk of hear fromnd we will the russian central bank or later. is a certain risk and most banks will have to continue to diversify to be given the monetary policy from the central thes across low with typical responses to determine and theent situation
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u.k. will be in the short-term depend longer-term will on negotiations in 2017 and how that will affect the status of the u.k. economy. you are an investor who comes to london often. what is the attitude with investing in the u.k.? i can tell you that people strongking for a political project and independent u.k. stance with
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new investments and the possibility abroad with this currency adjusting to a point where it is interested. >> thank you very much for joining us this morning. risk and the junk latest from south africa with the finance minister. on why oilral bank went from the flow to the friend. >> and on the rebound. this is bloomberg.
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a suggestion it will be flat at the start of the trading day. here is rosalind chin. >> investigators believe this latest incident of smartphones overheating may be the result of a different problem. company pulledn the plug on a premier phone. in the next decade. >> guessing how many products you will offer and how much we will see in the future and we
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may see a range of 25% in the next 10 years with the electrified vehicles and the internal combustion engine. >> reported quarterly profits and there isions fears the conglomerate is this model is running out of steam costs andutting of they confirmed the fat -- this forecast and the considerable the klein in sales. no market is off the table for said they could be looking at tokyo, london, and new york. going and webe
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will be looking at the rising it could recover more in the future. >> thank you very much. the charges have moved the country closer to a junk bond quite there has the news of weakening and we're getting more from johannesburg. this is a fast-developing story. what are the latest developments? >> there were quite a few statements the came through and we had a statement from the
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lawyers appointed out there trying to make sense of this and that his legal team is looking at the available avenue and president said that he had full support and confidence with the finance minister and that all legal proceedings should be followed. >> is there a sense of a real it political or is interference and redundancy? is there a misdemeanor? related toges are the head of the tax revenue collection agency illegally rates and we are
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of the criminal omens map and they say that there is no case and the prosecuting mustrity says the case take. >> thank you very much for that update. we have our union group executive still here in the studio. and ite the market asset is close to your heart. opportunitiesbest in latin america? situations of countries coming back into and thereand opens up
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is a good story over the next there is aand corruption scandal and it is a good thing, because it is changing in a quick way and it is going out of a big recession and the next five years. that is one of the big things. >> this is politics and it with ated in currency price movement. a price of with two standard deviations away and you
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and weyield is there rateshe fed increasing and brazil with the best-performing market this year and thetrong flow commodities come back with marketsnd most of the are looking. and ite is the fed hike is still a bit shaky with a probability of a hike. >> absolutely. those factors seem to be more the situationd was driven by the economy and the market collapsed.
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manus: may's brexit back down. the prime minister accept that parliament should be able to vote on her plan. ignites inside the party.ld donald trump pledges to campaign unshackled from the republican leaders, party. donald trump pledges to campaign and promises to "punish" disloyal members. plus, the russian central bank governor says oil turning higher means of smoother path to rate cuts. if there is a higher oil price, it can lead to a stronger ruble, and that in turn can
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cause more rapid decline in inflation expectations, slowing inflation. then we can easily turn policy much faster. e monetary policy much faster. manus: welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe. we are renaming our flagship morning show right here in london. anna: we have been talking about what's happening with the pound. european equity markets are going to open up on the back 38. half the asian stocks made headway when samsung was under pressure, but generally the concern seems to be about interest rates in the united states. manus: it always fascinates me how a little shift improbability -- anna: it was always on the radar. manus: it was, but no, they
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decided to shake and shutter as the probabilities rise. london is down by .3%. that all ties back to the pound. 1.2257. you have the flash crash, and the question -- the market is so short, it is already position for externally short. do you sell? do you believe that hard brexit rhetoric won't rise again? anna: the pound is the worlds worst-performing major currency against the dollar this month, and we are making a big fuss about this bounds here, a little change in direction from theresa may. we'll get more in parliament today, as this seems to be set to be debated, the motion being debated today. oil is very much part of the conversation around inflation. manus: absolutely. trading at $50.97.
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they left istanbul with putin in the pocket. the politics of economics, the economics of politics, i don't know which way around, with the saudis going to the bond market, the russian election -- the dollar-ranked had a little bit of reprieve, but how close are they to a junk rating? 4%, banksacked down sold off, the median estimate on the bloomberg is 14.42 for the end of the year. anna: we had the chinese currency for you, not an and norm's move, but near six-year lows. -- not an enormous move, but near six-year lows. the did is willing it to drift lower. 1.36% in were back at the middle of this year, in june. now we are at 1.77%. that's the move in prices and
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inflation expectations and expectations around the fed. manus: absolutely. 1.77%, the personal consumption expenditure for the federal reserve, just off that 1.7% level. five-year is also rising a little closer to where -- maybe eyes.ites of the eyes. anna: we were talking about the chinese yuan, september auto sales rose by 28.9%, year on year. we will focus on that story later. let's get the first word news with rosalind chin. rosalind: thanks. donald trump has gone on a twitter offensive, blasting house speaker paul ryan as weak and ineffective. that millionaire also declared that the shackles have been taken off after ryan and other condemned his comments about women. he spoke in panama city, florida. >> this election will determine whether we remain a free country
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in the truest sense of the word, or we become a corrupted banana republic controlled by large, foreign governments. the election of hillary clinton would lead to the destruction of our country. lind: australia has sold billions of dollars worth of 30 year bonds in a record deal. the new securities were priced to yield 22.7%, and lower commodity prices and mining investments have sapped revenues. and four charges the hands the south african finance minister have brought the country a step closer to a junk rating, putting the increased borrowing cost back on the table. he'll make a court appearance in november a month before they are due to release their review of south africa. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by over 2600 journalists
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and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more stories on the bloomberg at top . i'm rosalind chin. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. juliette saly is standing by. the bond traders are nervous -- how are the equity boys and girls? they're also nervous. we are waiting for these fomc minutes, a lot of concern that they could be more hawkish, even though this all should be factored in. they're also nervous. we have seen some jitters in the asian session, most markets closing into trading lower. seoul just closed higher by .1%, in the last hour of trade, where we saw samsung arrays earlier losses. it has closed pretty flat, which has given it a that of the tecak up .
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taiwan doing very well. the nikkei losing what it gained yesterday, closing down by 1%. australia impacted by that weakness coming through in material and energy. and we are seeing similar things in hong kong and hang seng. the shanghai market also extending losses after two sessions, gains down .5%. let's show you the debt market australia, for the first time selling 30 year bonds. we're still seeing money coming out of bonds, for a australia, e seventh consecutive session. thank you very much. juliette saly joining us in hong kong. higher oil prices may lead to lower rates in russia, according to the country's's central bank governor. she spoke exclusively to never change, who joins us now -- to nejra cehic, who joins us now.
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this was an unprecedented commitment last month to keep borrowing costs unchanged, and now we are getting this change in the oil price. that might change inflation, and that might impact rates after all. nejra: yes, indeed. good morning. basically, this decision to cut rates to 10% last month was coupled with abasically, this dt rates signal to the market that the central bank would keep rates on hold for the rest of the year, because what russia is battling with, really, is doesn't cut rates to try and pull the economy out of its longest recession in two decades, while on the other hand battling high interest rate at 6.4%? they want to get it down to 4% by the end of 2017. a lot of people are saying that this moderately tight policy, as the central bank calls it, is about prioritizing central-bank credibility over economic growth. i asked her yesterday, what about higher oil prices?
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what impact would that have? she says it may feed into a stronger ruble, which brings down inflation expectations. it could mean that easing becomes faster. this is quite a rare signal she has given since making the commitment to keep rates on hold till the end of the year. and she did tell me there's a possibility rates could be cut next year. >> [speaking russian] >> we continue to see the pound sterling as one of the currencies where our assets -- unfortunately the range of reserve currencies isn't too wide and the returns are mostly low. nejra: are there any other impacts of brexit that concern you? >> [speaking russian] >> the long-term consequences will be far more significant. a lot will depend on the terms brexit will be implemented. that could, of course, affect financial markets.
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second, everyone is worried about the fallout and whether the repeat of another country wishing to exit the eu is possible. that could of course have serious consequences. implemented. that could, of course, affect financial markets. we continue to monitor the situation. there she was talking about extra risk. she did tell me they aren't so concerned about the recent precipitous fall in sterling. in terms of brexit, they are more concerned about the impact on the rest of the eu, one of russia's biggest trading partners. but ultimately, any external risk, whether it is the fed or china or the u.s. election, it is all about how it feeds back through the oil price, and that is what matters in many ways most to russia's central bank. manus: nejra, thank you. nejra cehic. let's talk about breaking news from toyota, exploring a business relationship, a partnership with suzuki. they say would be around research and development, potentially consolidating their auto industries. anna: they are saying as the
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environment in the industry has been changing drastically, it is important to have partners to respond to the changes and in order to survive and put emphasis on r&d, which they say they are working on individually. it's important to have partners that share the same goal. manus: if you look at this, it's about suzuki, focused on -- if you look at toyota, they have such a broader breadth of product. interesting to watch. anna: stay with bloomberg. we just heard from nejra. we will be speaking to the tv bank ceo -- vtv bank ceo. manus: theresa may has accepted that parliament should be allowed to vote on her plan taking britain out of the european union, however she asked lawmakers to do it in a way that gives her the space to negotiate. anna: the decision seemed to calm investors after they dumped the pound on concerns that they
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were taking a gung ho the approach to negotiations. it bounce to just a little bit 1.2% against up by the u.s. dollar. let's bring into the conversation the chairman of bt group. great to see you. -- how do yound respond to this matter, of whether parliament gets a vote? is that something you welcome? >> well, we had the referendum and we have to accept the decision to leave the european union. i think we understand that. it was a referendum. however, what's critical is how it is done, and whether it is hard brexit, negotiated on what terms, the transition period on this unbelievably complex challenge after 40 years of integration. be, whilel view would
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should havenister the ability to negotiate these complex issues, it seems to me that it's not a bad thing. anna: you say business accepts that we need to leave the european union. 's business ready to accept that? -- is business ready to accept that? >> they have already accepted it. we wanted to lay out the economic consequences, and the british people have to decide. there are choices you make about sovereignty, should have the ability to and then we haveo move on. what business wants to do is work with government to make this as painless as possible and to try and engage in those things we think are important to maintain access to the single market. to give long-term certainty to our incredibly successful but foreign invested automotive industry, our aircraft industry. all of these things are very important. manus: last week, we wrote an
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article -- we don't know what the brexit negotiation will be. there seems to be a perception that it will be hard and heavy, all the way around, full frontal assault so when it comes to doing a deal, it will be everybody backing off. immigration, budget, lawmaking, and eu courts -- trade? trade isn't a redline. that is shocking. >> from a business point of view, we think trade relationships are very important. this is very complex and will take a long time to deal withthl take a long time to deal with. there is a legal sequence you have to respect in your ability to negotiate. there are something like 52 treaties the eu has on our behalf outside the european union. there's a need to refresh our membership at the wto. all these things are important, and all we want to do is to help government, input to government on those things we think would work in practice.
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no one is saying this is going to be painless, and no one is saying it's not going to be difficult, and it is going to take quite a long time to work through. anna: lots of people are looking at the data and saying, well, the data seems to be holding up ok, and we just have to vote. what evidence are you seeing about how this could impact investment or recruitment? where are the pressure points? >> to be honest, it is working out as most thought it would. be initial shock after we voted to leave people didn't expect, that would lead to a fallen sterling, which would lead to recovery in exports. there'd be a phony piece, and i think that is where we are. i think what's really concerned the markets, how we are actually going to handle the negotiations, and i think that has led to the further fall in sterling. and it isn't only that. we've in running a trade and
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fiscal deficit for a long time. our productivity figures are very poor. there's a lot of work going into that at the moment. this just creates a high level of uncertainty that makes it difficult -- anna: can the weaker pound boost exports? some people say it can, but others say it hasn't. >> i think it can do, and is doing it. but you also need to row number that we are part of an integrated global economy. we have a supply chain networks around the world, particularly in europe, and therefore we are going to see the negative aspects depending on individual industries of the inflation in and when the hedging stops. manus: how destructive is this move on the pound for business people? mervyn king even called it a welcome change. destructive-- how is this pound? i'm not an economist.
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manus: from a business boardroom point of view. >> it's simple -- some degree of adjustment was useful to compensate for our lack of productivity and the uncertainty. when it goes down below a certain level, we worry about investment. we shouldn't forget that at this level, the question we need people i'm not an economist. asking -- there are rumors that the government wants to move forward on infrastructure investment, which i think most of us would welcome. that has to be financed, so we have to have a stable environment in which to attract the investment and continue to pay low interest rates. anna: thank you very much. he stays with us. manus: up next, deutsche does it again. the german lender is said to be increasing its private bond rating. we continue our conversation wi th my great. this is bloomberg. ♪
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a nice shot of the brandenburg gate. 7:30 in london. euro-dollar 1.1044. manus: deutsche bank has returned for another $1.5 billion into private debt market, offering yields that will offer more than twice what it paid just a year ago. anna: according to a person with with knowledge of the matter, this comes less than a week after raising $3 billion in a separate sale. deutsche bank's media relations officer said she could not comment. yous: mike rate, mike, wore a whole different hat but banking is in your blood. john cryan trying to raise capital in the background without doing a massive issue. give me a sense of the pressure that you see him under at deutsche bank. >> yeah. bank, expert in deutsche but i think the industry a whole -- we are 10 years into the crisis, they have faced enormous
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pressures. on the one hand, the necessity to increase capital so we don't get into this situation we got into in 2008, and the high level of penalties and fines levied around the world for the perceived mistakes of what happened during the crisis prior to the crisis. that means you have huge pressure on your balance sheet and liquidity, and it's important to try and make sure you have a very strong core tier one capital. from everything i see, deutsche has strong liquidity, and they see the need to further increase capital. anna: they are talking about the balance sheet -- when will banks make a return on equity greater than the 10% cost of equity? when do we start see better return? >> it will take longer. the more interest rates go down, the more you squeeze margins. the banks have to reduce cost significantly to deal with that.
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they are investing a lot in technology. think we always said it was going to be 10 years; i think is another couple before we see the banks coming through in the way that's necessary to make returns. manus: many people have come in and said this is not a liquidity problem, it's a profitability problem. give me your take on that. >> i think it started off being a capital problem rather than a liquidity problem, which is absolutely right. i think it now has become a profitability problem. because there is only so far you can go with cost reduction in relation to the business. now you need to see a combination of interest rate spreads improving to more normal rates as well as more activity and the ability to get out there in the global economy. anna: amongst this low yield environment, needing to reduce cost and deal with regulation, now u.k. banks have to deal with
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the prospect of losing passporting as a result of brexit. what i banks doing to trying and prepare themselves? where are we seeing that making these contingency plans? >> i think it is broader. barclays, at cpi or it was clear that people needed to do planning in advance, because the passport has been a huge im part of the service sector. so what people have to have, if we aren't able to in 2018, which hopefully might give some equivalents, but we need certainty, banks have to have an alternative plan. they have to have some kind of substantial activity in the european union, and it can't be just a nameplate, it has to be a real activity to continue cross-border activity. so they're all looking at different ways as to how they might handle it. manus: in terms of reciprocity,
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obviously this is a moment for europe to grab market share, and people are preparing to make the decisions over the next couple years. is, will london dissipate in its preeminence as the financial hub out of the west? >> i think london will always remain a great financial center, because it is a unique location. i think the danger of using passporting is that we may not become the global center competing with new york in europe. personally, i believe it is in this case very much in the whole european union's interest as one of the global financial centers as opposed to a global financial center, and i would personally like to see something done on financial services passporting to allow the equivalence to occur. anna: if the business leaves, where do you think it goes? where would london bankers look to?
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new york? >> i think it has been said openly at some of the u.s. banks will move people back to new york. i think others will move people variously to frankfurt or answer amsterdam, dublin. -- i don'twill be think there will be one location that benefits above others. i think it would be a dissipation of people. anna: one other thing. the you take government wants to collect data on foreign workers. they aren't going to publish it but they want to collect it. where are we vulnerable? >> i think it is very straightforward from a business perspective. we need to be clear that we need the immigration and migration we have had that has been central to the economy. that's the truth for 95% of it, whether it is in the national health service, in tourism, the financial services -- we in
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