♪ john: i'm john heilemann. mark: i'm mark halperin. with all due respect to tom brady, would you say your enthusiasm for donald trump has deflated? ♪ mark: on the program tonight, donald trump's rigged rhetoric and republicans are shouting quid pro quo whoa. right when wild suggesting senior state department officials have discussed with the fbi a change to the cost vacation of what hillary clinton's secret e-mails, possibly an exchange from our bureau overseas. we will talk about the merits and applications of that story

later in the program. with 22 days before election day, the polls are a little confusing. yesterday, two national surveys told very different tales about the state of the race. one from nbc news and "the wall street journal" shows hillary clinton leading by 11 points among likely voters. 48% to 37% over trump. another highly respected poll from abc news and "the washington post" suggests that hillary clinton only has a 4% lead over trump. today, monmouth has put out its own poll showing clinton up by 12%. things are no clearer on the state level. quinnipiac university with the budget battleground polling put out clinton up eight points in colorado, 6% in pennsylvania, 4% in florida and a tight race in ohio. in another poll, trump is leading by four in ohio. up to in nevada.

two more polls i want to mention, in new hampshire, a wbur survey has him leading by three percentage points in the state trump visited over the weekend. finally in virginia, clinton has expanded her edge by a massive lead of 15 points according to be by the respective christopher newport university poll this afternoon. john, a whole lot of pulling data. what is the actual state of the race right now? john: mark, i would like to say on behalf of of our friend john ralston, who we will be sitting seeing in nevada but we had out to las vegas in the next day or so, if you do it, i do it, not nevahda, not nevada. chicagond thing, i am were i spent most of the day with david axelrod. one of the things the point he made our friend david plouffe has made, you look at all these polls, a couple things are clear. one, hillary clinton has never been behind in this race.

donald trump has been behind, is still behind nationally, and in the battleground states. when you look at the battleground states, there has been less erosion than on the national level since the worst of total problems begun, but it is still the case she is in a better position in the battleground states than barack obama ever was in 2012 against mitt romney and we all know how that turned out. mark: he was the incumbent and a stronger candidate in a lot of ways. look, donald trump is still the underdog. if you look at the states he must win in order to get close to 270 electoral votes, this national polling is catastrophic for him. if he loses by five points nationally, he is not going to win the election and will be a landslide. but the state polls show he can win. take a look at this map. give him all of the romney states, including north carolina, a state where he is behind, the trump people concede, but the state polls are closer. give him florida, ohio, iowa, the state where las vegas is, the name of which i cannot

pronounce -- give him those. he is a he needs five more to 265. win. giving them all of those states is a mental exercise. he is probably behind in at least three of them, maybe a little ahead in ohio and iowa. my point is as dire as things , are for trump right now, if he has a little bit of a roll nationally and he can win those states he could get to 255 -- two at electoral votes. 65 he is the underdog. he has been all along. he has had a horrible stretch. the state polling or he is doing but better with independence and women for the most part the nationally show this thing is not over. john: right, but here's the thing. you are saying, it's a mental exercise to give him all those states. i think it's an exercise and mental gymnastics. you are saying he is within striking distance, but behind in a bunch of states he has to win all of. he's within striking this is a pulling an inside straight.

if it was one or two states where he was, most wednesdays for him that he was behind in, i would see there was more of a possible path, what we are talking about a national wave that is moving against them, and in these states were you were right, he has not lost that much altitude but he is still where he was a few weeks ago. he needed to overcome obstacles. mark: take them one by one. ohio, he has generally been ahead. clinton folks think he could win there. he could win iowa. the silver state is a question, but he has been ahead at times. he could win florida and north carolina. he has huge enthusiasm i don't in photo. i don't know he will win it. he could. it is down to north carolina where he is behind. in three of the states, i think he is even or ahead. you are just basically saying you do not know if he is in florida. he is behind in all of what

appalling. again, if you give him everything, then you were giving him everything and still at 265. mark: for a mental exercise, given the three and he is to find a way to win florida and north carolina in the last five is still really tough. that is why he is deeply the underdog in this race. john: we agree then on that, for sure. donald j. trump for a while now has been doubling, even quadrupling down on his whole -- the election is rigged refrain, even as his running mate mike pence said the republican ticket but on or the will of the voters, even if hillary clinton wins. today, he was at it again tweeting, of course, there is large-scale voter fraud happening on and before election day. why republican leaders deny what is going on, so naive to which . hillary clinton fell campaign manager robby mook said it this way on a conference call "donald

trump's campaign is spiraling. he is desperately trying to shift attention from his own disastrous campaign. he knows he is losing and he's trying to blame that on the system. this is what losers do, and we are not going to give any credit by amplifying it. it is not true. the system is not raked." --rigged." mark, the conventional wisdom is has been laying the groundwork with a bunch of excuses so he can justify his failure. but you think in the short-term, i.e. pre-election and the immediate to long-term, i.e. postelection, are there other objectives he is pursuing a advancing this line of argument? mark: i think he is doing it mostly out of immaturity and impulsiveness, because he is surrounded by a bunch of people who believe in conspiracy theories. i actually think it is more that and not achieving a short-term objective because it is crowding out news. the press will focus on it. he will fight with democrats and republicans about it. if trump has a chance to win -- and he doesn't have a good chance right now -- it is

talking about change, washington needing to be shaken up, i don't think he is laying the groundwork as much as he is just impulsive and he likes to, you know, prattle on. but for his own chances, it's ridiculously stupid. john: well, i think it's also -- look, this is incredibly dangerous the stuff he is saying. mark: oh, that, too. john: it is ridiculous. there has been a fair amount of study on voter fraud the last few years. we have a debates in state after state over voter id laws and there has been a miniscule to minimus proven cases of voter fraud before or on election day. that is the first thing. the second thing is, i think it seems like what they're tried to do, and we have said this before, they are trying to depress turnout and trial of the trump base to turn out. maybe they think that is the way to win. maybe that is trying to rile up the base. if you don't get out and vote, they will steal the election.

that is the only way we can fight back. the other, longer-term thing, excuses,on to making to try to build some kind of movement. i do not know if that is going to be a business or what, but some kind of anti-hillary clinton after she gets elected president, if she gets elected president that he could somehow capitalize on in terms of power or money. mark: it will be fascinating to see how many days he talks about things that will help him get elected versus not. up next why the state department , and fbi released statements today about hillary clinton from e-mails. we will talk about that story when we come right back. ♪

♪ john: the conservative political world is of an arms about the

release of new fbi documents about the agency's investigation into hillary clinton's malpractices as secretary of state. the new disclosures indicate the secretary official urged the fbi to downgrade the classification of one of clinton's e-mails. investigators wrote kennedy made the above request to an fbi agent who in turn asked about getting the agency more office space overseas leading to possible quidof a pro quo. it is ambiguous who brought up the idea and what that quid pro quo might have been. who suggested it, who might have, who didn't. we also know that kennedy's request was rebuffed. no classification changes were made. still, republicans are seizing on the entire story. donald trump has been tweeting about it all day. his campaign called for kennedy's resignation house this afternoon. speaker paul ryan put out a statement of his own, saying the -- bears "bears inside

all the signs of a cover-up." mark, what do you make of this and where might it go? mark: once again i will be a critic of the fbi. they should not be putting this stuff out. but having decided to put it out, they should put it out with real transparency. there are some of you with actions in this. i understand why there is suspicion and i do not blame the republicans politically for demanding more information. we simply do not know enough. not the role of the media or the it isnot the role of the media or the republicans to give the benefit of the doubt to people in government. it's just not. and while some of the initial reports of this have overstated what we know and how definitively a state department official might've been involved in the discussions about a quid pro quo, there are a lot of questions begged, and the fbi, i do not know what they are thinking. they are releasing these documents on an ad hoc basis, have you with actions only leading to more confusion, not clarification and not public accountability. john: i agree with you. we have differed with things on these topics, but the fbi, the

totality of how they have handled disclosures and talking about this case for months now, it has been less helpful rather than more helpful and more confusing rather than clarifying. the clinton campaign is on the record today saying this was patrick kennedy's request was just part of the normal interagency haggling over classification that takes place. i think it is strange that it would have -- i don't think they this should be regarded as just customary given that it was happening after this and become a matter of great public controversy. there are suspicions here. there may be more smoke and fire, but there may be more fire here. i think the story will linger for days until we get answers to the questions you and i have raised here today. mark: republicans should not be accused of being political asking for more information, although based on what we know. trump and others have gone too

far. another headache and the clinton world has to do with the slow drip of wikileaks revelations that keep coming from john podesta's inbox. those e-mails, which allegedly are authentic, at least in some cases they seem to be, started dropping about a week ago starting with excerpts from clinton's wall street speeches, alleged communiques, daily disclosures, mostly involving campaign gossip or insider stuff including one in which a longtime clinton aide described chelsea clinton as a "spoiled brat." at the staff level, they seem to mock evangelicals and conservative catholics. that came from jennifer paul mary, communications director. there was one reportedly showing clinton allies pulling on president obama's ties to the muslim faith and his past drug use in the 2008 campaign. then the release of what was once considered the anti-clinton holy grail, the transcripts of

her three paid speeches to goldman sachs. that came out, and again, interesting stuff, but no game changing revelations. john, a lot of disclosures. psalms speak to the culture of the clinton campaign but no mega- bombshells so far. where does that leave the current damage and potential threat of what we expect to be continued drumbeat of disclosures? john: right. i agree a lot of these things are interesting and some of them are quite damning, not in a way that are surprising to me and you. again, will say, i talked to david axelrod during a podcast. we had this conversation and he basically said you know, some of , these things that were revealing about clinton fell campaign culture, he had a very skeptic view in 2008 about what clinton fell campaign culture was like and he sees that laid bare. the ones to me that are the most dangerous are the ones that touch on president obama. i find it incredibly intriguing

the notion that he had an e-mail account that he e-mailed under an alias and it is suggested he may have been in communication with hillary clinton under that eno. the things that touch directly on president obama, hillary clinton and e-mail controversy -- it is potentially damaging. potentially. mark: i think the press has accepted the narrative that these e-mails in their totality showing window into the kind of culture of a clinton operation that says one thing and does another. that is not unusual for political operations. i think that is primed the pump. and people also recognize it's possible whoever is controlling this disclosure is not necessarily lead with the lead. while you can imagine days after these, the media's posture would be, we have seen all of this, i think people are primed for a big disclosure and that will help if something comes up that is worth it. for the most part, this is

lowering people's expectations. taking a break. up next, the washington post has a great story with the title "donald trump echo chamber of conspiracies, grievances, and vitriolic." that is quite a headline. we will talk about that. ♪

♪ mark: welcome back. lots going on politically today. joining us to talk about it all from the nation's capital, reporter from "the washington post." ok, looking at donald have a great story looking at trump's actions, do you think he is in a different place in terms of his rhetoric and his mental state than he has been? phil: i do. i mean, he has been moving in this direction for some time. he is clearly deciding to turn

inward and talk directly to his base and talk about dark conspiracies and there has grievances and he is steering away from the core messages that animated the campaign early on in that a lot of republicans believe could give him a better chance to win him the election and focusing things on the polls and thatd and corrupt the media is biased and part of the global conspiracy, and even saying, as he repeated again today, that the election is going to be rigged and stolen. the voter fraud is happening and rampant and cheating is underway. it is a pretty dark turn. mark: let me ask what you know about this. my reporting is some of his advisers think this stuff is great. they like it intellectually and they think it will help win a base election. he has other advisors who say you should be talking about the economy, change, hillary clinton as part of the problem. are there divisions, and why is trump not listening to the people arguing for the latter message?

phil: a lot of traditional republican strategists and operatives are deeply uncomfortable with the rhetorical direction donald trump is taking that he is taking a lot of his cues from stephen bannon who is chief executive of the campaign who used to run the breitbart website. they are helping feed a lot of this to trump. they are with them every day, helping him practice messages on the stump. the speech in florida was really a turning point where he went for on with the global conspiracy and talked about the clinton campaign, the media, the banks, multinational corporations, foreign governments all colluding in very dark ways to undermine this election and steal it from him and his movement. john: phil, just explain what the theory of the case is, how this helps him win. i mean, obviously, it appeals to his base or at least a subset of his space, but for those urging us on him, assuming they are

doing this because it is the way to win. in the world, how do they explain how this is a path to victory? phil: i think there are two pieces. first of all, it is his base. he is saying things he thinks will galvanize, motivate, energize his base of aggrieved white people, many of them working class. there is a belief in the donald trump campaign that there are more of these people out there prepared to vote for donald trump then he pulls indicate. people who are not participating in elections before, so is trying to motivate them, to give them a reason to turn out. he is trying to suppress hillary clinton's base and give voters who might be going to the polls for hillary clinton a recent to think twice or maybe feel uncomfortable about doing so maybe feel like there's something wrong with the process or that would be too much fraction or tension at the polling places. i was talking to mayor michael nutter, the former mayor of philadelphia today, and he said this is his big fear in

philadelphia, that the trump campaign trump himself talking , about voter fraud and urging his supporters to go to the polling places could be an intimidating force and suppress the african-american vote in that city, which of course would help donald trump. john: phil, i just want to ask you about infowars. just for the benefit of anybody who is not familiar with alex jones and infowars. we have seen donald trump retreating things from editors talking about the theory that hillary clinton was on drugs at the last debate which is straight out of the info wars world. just tell people what is info worse -- info wars and why is donald trump taking place out of their playbook? phil: it's a website. it is one of the darkest corners of the media online, if you want to call it that. they don't do traditional journalism, but they spread a lot of theories, including 9/11 truth or theories, which is a website that was home to a lot of ideas after 9/11 that it was

a tyrannical government plot, the terrorist attacks of 2001. alex jones is somebody that donald trump has done interviews with. he certainly listens to what he has to say. it is also a place where roger stone, a longtime trump advisor frequently appears and has ideas. a lot of the conspiracies that you hear trump of bringing up on the campaign trail, like hillary clinton's druggies, which by the way there is no evidence of that, originated with info wars, the side. it is like breitbart, probably lesser known to the mainstream public but it is one of those sites online. mark: do you know how the conveyor belt works? is trump reading this himself? are people pitching it? hey, you should talk about this question mark how does it go from saying hillary clinton has a drug problem to him saying it on the stump? phil: i wish i knew. it started at info wars with roger stone advancing the theory in an interview with alex jones

and then all of a sudden it came out of trump's mouth over the weekend at the rally in new hampshire. somehow or another, trump is getting the information in front of them. i do not know if it is stephen bannon or somebody else, but there is some conduit. mark: it would be fascinating to know if people are pitching it to him or showing it to them and he is using it himself. of course, particularly with the debate coming up, all campaigns worried that if you say something in front of the candidate or to the candidate, he or she may blurt it out on the stump. he had a teleprompter at that speech. i wonder if it was on the prompter or that was an ad lead. it was not necessarily something everybody on the campaign wanted him to say. phil: yeah, it would be really striking if that was in the prompter. he said it, so he has to live by it. mark: we have the debate on wednesday. any sense at the trump campaign thinks this is their last best hope for cutting into hillary's lead or they are not building it up that way?

phil: well, it is his last, best hope. it is the last chance he will have to talk to 68 million people in the country directly with clinton. he prepared for over the weekend, sunday, with some of his advisers, but he is clearly not putting in the time that hillary clinton is. she has taken three days off of the campaign trail and is in new york doing debate prep and donald trump will be doing some rallies instead. we will see if he comes and prepare. i am looking to see if you will have a stunt like he did before the debate last time. mark: thank you for watching. bloomberg markets asia is up next. sayonara. ♪

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>> it's 9 a.m. in hong kong, midday in sydney. >> this is bloomberg markets asia. >> reasonable growth in australia. afterd: netflix surged hours, it's hit shows have visitors coming up, but asia remains a challenge.