mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. "with all due respect" to donald trump, when it comes to message discipline, it seems like someone on your team has you beat. >> i accept peace. i accept equality. he cares about women. he is kind. he is a gentleman. keep this kind. he is a gentleman. and they wrote lies. i will not allow that. i will not allow people saying lies. it is unfair. it is damaging and it is unfair. ♪

john: we are here in sin city, usa, on the campus of the university of nevada, las vegas. in a little more than 24 hours the center right behind us, hillary clinton and donald trump will take part in the final debate. consistent with the spirit of a listed siegfried and roy and 10 and teller, one thing to expect from the republican nominee is plenty of misdirection. plenty of attempts to make his problems poof -- disappear. donald trump continues to compare complain about a riiged -- complain about a rigged election. governor scott walker said it is easy to vote, but hard to cheat in his state. the secretary of ohio told cnn that donald trump's repeated claims are "irresponsible"

joining democratic officials that have been are doing a claim for weeks. -- that have been arguing the clinic for weeks. in a conference with the premise or of italy, president obama made clear his disdain for trump. obama: whenever things are going badly for you, you blame someone else, then you don't what have what it takes to be in this job. oute is no serious person there who would suggest somehow that you could even rig america's elections. in part because they are so decentralized. and the numbers of votes involved. there is no evidence that that has happened in the past, or that there are instances in which that will happen this time. and so, i would advise mr. trump to stop whining and go make his case to get votes. if he got the most votes, then it would be my expectation of hillary clinton to offer a

gracious concession speech and pledged to work with him in order to make sure that the american people benefit from an effective government. and it would be my job to welcome mr. trump, regardless of what he said about me or my differences with him on my opinions, and escort him to the capital in which there would be a peaceful transfer of power. john: mark, even donald trump's running mate mike pence has struggled to defend his attempt to pre-delegitimize the outcomes of the elections. -- ifer if we are recent we are reaching a point where republicans en masse are going to step up and say trump's claims are bogus. mark: republicans have been talking about election fraud for several cycles. donald trump is not the first to do it. they are worried that he will

say the election is legitimate. they are responsible in saying that if you loses, he loses. this will not cause them to break with him on us. if he is behind -- with him en masse. if he is behind, they are worried it could blow out other candidates and remake the map for the next race. then they will look for excuses to break with him. but this on his own, unless he keeps it up as his main message, i don't think it will be the breaking point. john: i will give republicans more credit. not for the thing about to say, but after that. the thing i want to give them credit for is yeah, they've talked about election fraud as a justification for voter id laws. but in a general sense, "we have to be careful, there could be front." right-thinking people have cited the statistics that it has not happened very much. but donald trump is citing it is happening on a widespread basis now, in the past, and in the

future. i want to give scott walker credit -- some of them are just, hey, we home run sound elections in my state. i am responsible for the elections. i will not let donald trump trash my ability to run a fair electoral process. mark: this is what is troubling republicans. these are things that trupm is is citing that are the words of a desperate person that might lose. trashing other republicans, saying that the system is rigged. all of these would be fine if you were winning-- you could still attack the press if you were winning. john: i wouldn't be donald trump against world. mark: the more he sounds desperate, the more people think he is not going to win. the harder it will be to infuse everybody. -- to enthuse everybody. john: analysts have accepted that trump is going to lose. they don't want to get into a situation where trump has burned

the whole place down. they will have to deal with a potentially democrat accented and maybe even democratic house. it is not helpful for them to have tolerated trump doing this. mark: while the president was hitting donald trump, hillary clinton spent another news cycle of the campaign trail as cheaper fares for tomorrow's debate in vegas. and yet her campaign is making a lot of noise about doing something new -- expanding their attempts to win republican leading states. missouri, indiana, and arizona. arizona is getting particular focus. hillary clinton's campaign will send $2 million there, and the super circuits including michelle obama, bernie sanders, and chelsea clinton. democrats are hoping they can pick up the seats currently held by republicans. john, is this primitively late attempt --this relatively late

attempt to expand the map smart? john: something we learned in 2008 and 2012 that barack obama had a more sophisticated polling operation than any media polls. i think the clinton campaign has one that is more sophisticated, doing more calls on a daily basis, then anybody in the press. this is a sign of great confidence. they are looking at numbers that say, we are confident enough we will be at 270 that it's time to spend precious resources to help those down ballot candidates and what democratic dreamed of for a long time. arizona was the one that obama thought about reaching for in 2012. that will be first on the list for hillary clinton. mark: they have the surrogate and the money to do it. two, they can help those down ballot races. three, it can help her get a more commanding win with more open and eight. and the last is psychological warfare.

if your trying to play offense, trump has to worry about that if he somehow wins ohio or arizona and loses utah. i don't see a downside to it. they know from what we know. arizona is winnable. john: these have been the states in democratic reach state parlance. arizona has been the one that they thought the right circumstances could tip first. georgia likely to tip second. states like missouri are not changing demographically. it is super smart. it goes back to answering your question -- why are they spending so much time raising money? this is why. so they could get to this point and have money to burn if they needed to. in an effort to deflect attention from the controversies and offer up a more conventional message to which you might be able to stick, donald trump rolled out a new five point ethics reform plan, framing

himself as a russian outsider that will --washington outsider that will cleanse the landscape. he wants to expand the definition of lobbyist while banning branch officials from lobbying from foreign governments. and trump called for campaign-finance tinges that would prevent foreigners from raising money in u.s. elections. trump added a six part to his shakeup list in colorado springs. mr. trump: it is indeed time to drain the swamp in washington dc. if i am elected president i will push for a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on all members of congress. [applause] they have been talking about that for years. decades of failure in washington, and decades of special interest dealing must and will come to an end. john: as we sit earlier, the

message discipline is a foreign concept to donald trump, but if he has any, this is the message he will likely keep driving. do you think it's good policy and good politics? mark: i think it's good policy. i don't like perceptions on the first amendment, but something needs to be done to restore washington's faith. i am generally against stuff like this, but i could live with these provisions. i think term limits are silly. he won't have the message is one to keep driving it. most of his surrogates do not believe in it. it is too late. it is not hurt. it gives them something to talk about on message in terms of the trump coalition. three weeks ago this kind of basel would not make a big difference. --kind of proposal would not make a big difference. john: i disagree with many of these policies for reasons that you do. i think term limits are deleterious in many ways to

those that in office that know what they are doing. just as a matter of politics, is what ar 18, this populist reformer would have rolled out in ma any talked about for six months at least. could have been politically powerful and salient had he has been talking about it not starting on october 18. mark: and there are lobbyists all over the clinton orbit. coming up, senate republican candidates are dancing and tiptoeing around donald trump. melania trump then goes to the media. those stories when we come back. ♪

mark: not a lot of new presidential polling out, but there was a patch of senate race polls. senator rubio has a slight pull over his democratic congressman, patrick murphy. , in pennsylvania republican pat toomey is ahead of his democratic incumbent 49 to 45. those races have tightened up over the last two weeks, with republicans still leading in ohio. rob portman, the star of the cycle so far, has expanded his lead over former governor ted strickland. portman now has an eye-popping 54 to 41% lead. all three of those republican incumbent have something incumbent, each has been in a debate, and each has tried some way to distance themselves fro'' s. >> there is no doubt that there are many things i disagree with in the nominee of my party, and

i have taken him on and condemned him when he said things that are aggressive, outrageous, boulder, and inappropriate. the problem is the other party has nominated someone who has repeatedly violated federal law. it's pretty clear donald trump was not my first choice or 10th choice. 14 million voters choice differently. one of the reasons i changed my mind and ran for reelection is because i know that no matter who wins, you are going to need people in the u.s. senate willing to stand up to the next president of the united states when they are wrong on policy, or run on their behavior. >> i made ordinary decision not to support my own party's nominee because i found his words to be so offensive and so wrong. i respect voters that take a different position on this. he did win the nomination. i support mike pence. he was also elected by those delegates at the republican convention. again, this election is not

about hillary clinton and donald trump, it is about 10 strickland and rob portman. >> i cannot endorse donald trump because i have so many concerns about his candidacy. i do also acknowledge that gosh, he would sign some let's listen that would be constructive. i feel like i'm in the same position as an awful lot of pennsylvanians. we have two badly flawed candidates. i can't believe in a country of 300 million people, this is what we got. mark: which parts of that rhetoric seems effective in creating the proper distance? john: don't endorse trump, kick the cap out of him when necessary, and implicitly concede that he is likely to lose and make the implicit and sometimes exquisite argument that you need to vote for me if you want to keep republicans in control of the senate as a balance against democratic overreach. mark: trump cannot wait for his comeback because early voted as a restarted. --early voting has already started. these candidates will be

producing their final tbs. he needs to come back now, otherwise they will continue to distance. you will see in some states an unprecedented amount of people who vote in the senate race and leave the presidential race blank, the opposite of what you see. john: you could see attacks from republican senate candidates if they are desperate enough. rob portman is clearly going to win reelection. but this past me and marco rubio race, it is not clear that they will effectively outrun trump or not. both of those guys could be in serious jeopardy if the polls widen. i could see them resorting to anti-trump measures if they think that is what is necessary to save their own hides. mark: in this cycle, there is a role i have long believed in -- if you are an incumbent senator, you fight for your seat unless you are running from a

superstar candidate, and you keep your seat. these republican incumbents are doing well. john: everyone is talking about the to silence breaking interviews with melania trump. one with cnn and the other with fox news. both have given us a full or picture of melania's public response to the access hollywood video of donald trump boasting about sexual assault. melania trump was well prepared and stuck to the script more than her husband typically does. in some respects, her words were just as provocative as the donald's often are. ek.ania: it was last we you could see that. the way that it comes out is that it was organized. they want to influence how the american people to vote.

details checking the background of these women. they don't have any facts. they were kind of boy talk. egged on from the host to say dirty and bad stuff. >> you feel the host was begging him on? melania: yes, they were two teenage boys. they should have behaved better. and i have two boys at home. i have my younger son, and i have my husband. [laughter] scatterede has been criticism of melania trump from what she said, but not as loaded as what you would expect. why is that? mark: i think spouses in general get a bit of a pass. she said there is a vast list when conspiracy -- left wing conspiracy against her husband

without any proof. some of the abuses have supported hillary clinton. --of the accusers have supported hillary clinton. but there is no evidence. if she wants to defend her husband, she has the right to do it. but people should scrutinize what she is talking about. john: there is amount of on pleasant -- there is an amount of was it simply. she made her own bed in marrying donald trump. but anthropologically, some , this womanike look has been through some horrible things, let us give her a pass. there is some slightly patronizing sense, that people don't think she fully understands the american electoral system that will. the fact that she is foreign-born and the way she speaks allows people to patronizingly-- mark: there is one more element the clintons did not want to drive. we will preview tomorrow's debate here in las vegas right

after this. ♪

john: we are back on the campus of the university of nevada, las vegas on the eve of the presidential debate. that is the room where it happens. joining us is msnbc political correspondent kasie hunt. we've talked about how the clinton campaign is moving into expansion states. georgia, texas, arizona, missouri, indiana -- all talk about. which are the ones where they are going to play? kasie: arizona is the one to watch. a, they think it is winnable. yes it is about the media. it is something they can win with a small investment. they don't necessarily have to

bet the farm on arizona to make a difference. georgia is a little further out. maybe the next one on their list. texas is a real stretch. we are probably buying in a little too much to their spin. utah -- that is kind of an online, right? -- an odd one, right? they have their fingers crossed in utah, but it doesn't fundamentally feel the same as arizona. mark: in the wikileaks daily disclosures, there is nothing massive that changes the race. but how are they a collating to the daily -- how are they accommodating to the daily disclosures? sense is that they ready for the next round of disclosures insomuch that they are less surprised from what we are learning. john podesta could give everyone access to his personal e-mails. i think they are prepared to

deal with what comes out. i do think we are operating in a remarkable new normal. their challenge in covering this is difficult for a lot of people in the press. that is a hurdle for them. trying to figure out how to explain and and put it in congress when it is easy to have a clickbait headline. john: there is a certain thing going on, not that they think they are going to be bombshells politically, but just the culture of the campaign. are people worried about disclosures, trashing each other -- instead of working towards victory, it's like we could have a couple bad weeks is our bosses figure out that we stink. kasie: there are many things people are willing to say in private that they don't say in public. it also undermines the ability of her staff to do their jobs

effectively. if you accidentally e-mailed the wrong person and spend an hour apologizing and worrying -- don't underestimate how that can potentially impact a campaign. especially in a stretch as intense as this one. mark: third and final debate -- i know you've been with the campaign enough to get a sense of their up's and down's. they seem pretty confident. kasie: i think they are, yes. they have been careful to approach her prep for this debate the same way as they did the others. i think they are more ready to take a curveball. they were surprised by the press conference donald trump put together at the last second. they want to make sure clinton was not ronald by that. -- was not rattled by that. from that perspective, they are going forward. we cannot be talking about arizona if there was not a certain durability they felt. mp has criticized her

for taking too many days off the trail. after this debate, is she. tort election day? --is she fully scheduled until election day? pace toes i expect the pick up aggressively. i don't think they are making this up that she is appropriate -- that she is preparing. if anything with pneumonia, we see it is hard to get her off the trail. john: kasie hunt. we will be back with more from my favorite city in america, las vegas, after this. kasie: of course it is. ♪

joining us now, our

coast-to-coast strategists, mindy tucker, who worked for .eorge w. bush and others let's start basic. you are a republican. you are not for donald trump. but give us the state of the race. chances donald trump's of winning? mindy: well, first, there are several weeks left in the election. a debate left. that could change things. but i doubt it. he has said something that has really shaken things up in the large group of voters will not be voting for him now. i think he's in trouble. mark: what would have to happen to win thetrump race? >> the international conspiracy being waged would have to stop. the media would have to stop

blocking his path to the white house. mark: give me a serious list. steve: he needs to stop attacking paul ryan. he needs to stop attacking hillary clinton. he needs to get back to a change argument that was very powerful. if he had not gone down all he might be holes, i in a different position. i think mindy is right. i think what he said 11 years ago shook people to their core. people who are largely undecided have turned against him. i think we will see the erosion continue. i think democratic chances in the house have improved the -- dramatically. and it's all because of donald trump. john: we all assumed there would be more hacked e-mails coming up

between now and election day, that wikileaks would be a factor. most of this stuff has not broken through with voters, especially compared to the controversies around trump. what kind of revelation would it take to really have political impact on the race? steve: it would take a real revelation that goes beyond the normal gossipy stuff that has come out of the campaign. ,hat has come out of wikileaks interestingis not or newsworthy. in order for something revelatory to occur, it would have to be something that stops the news cycle in its tracks ,ike donald trump's tape did and that gets people to ask about hillary clinton, is this really what we want to do. they were asking that question at one time. i think her campaign has done a good job of minimizing the

noise, and it's really just donald trump stepping all over himself for the last two weeks. mindy, we talked about melania trump doing these interviews last night and today. , the trump campaign recognizes that it still has a problem as a result of the access hollywood tape and the women who have come forward and continue to come forward to accuse donald trump. is that when you send your spouse out? when you realize you are hemorrhaging support? mindy: that is what it looked like to me. they thought it would go away. they tried to blame bill clinton and all of his women problems. it's not going away. it's bigger than they anticipated, which shows how disjointed he is from reality, saying this would not be a big deal. out.trotted her i don't know that it will help

at this point. we are still talking about it a week later. the problem is not going away. i don't have any great advice for him, nor would i give it to him if i did, to change this around. matter if hillary clinton starts talking more about her agenda for the country and bringing the country together? does that make a difference to of winning? mindy: i think it's helpful. what michelle obama showed us that her surrogates can be really powerful. the anger against her hasn't changed. a lot of people in america don't trust her. that still exists. but as other people are able to come out with a bigger message about america that goes beyond party, i think that goes a long way for hillary clinton. michelle obama knocked it out of the park last week.

she changed the face of the selection for a lot of people, especially women. steve: i think mindy is right about what michelle obama was able to accomplish, but i also think, mark, that you are right when you started to talk about canturn hillary clinton begin making toward a united country and a hopeful future for everybody, a willingness to work with republicans when appropriate and fight them when necessary. elected with a pretty substantial electoral college majority, but i don't see any harm in reaching out her hand and saying, i understand it's my job to make this country work. i'm going to work with his ever isre to make this -- whoever there to make this country move forward. i think people on the fence would like some reassurance. is a prettywallace

aggressive questioner. if you were hillary clinton, steve, what topic would you be most worried about him raising? steve: i would not want to be talking about any allegations about the clinton foundation, the quid pro quos. you cannot really disprove a negative. any time spent talking about that is off message. think donald trump will press it. i think hillary clinton would be wise to step out of it and look to the future. she is going to be the next president of the united states, the first woman, coming into very polarizing with low approval ratings. it's her job to bring the country together and she can start that tomorrow by looking like a grown up and moving past these childish questions. do you think democrats will control the senate and/or the house come november night? mindy: i am sort of on the

fence. i think there is a chance, given what's going on, and if hillary .ontinues to snowball her lead she's going to arizona. who knows what other states we will talk about a week from now? i am aware of the anger out there and the frustration. that in some way that manifests itself in a bipartisan result where we have checks and balances in terms of party in washington. i am not going to predict. ,f you had asked me a year ago i never would've predicted donald trump would be the nominee, and here we are. i just think we all need to be mindful of what is going on out there, how angry people are, and that we could end up with just about anything in november. mindy and steve, not angry. thank you both.

we are going to check in with some presidential reporters when we come back after this.

welcome back to sin city. we are here at the side of the third and final presidential debate which will be held tomorrow night. we are joined by two reporters. a window into the state of mind of donald trump's world as he arrived in a city with a building with his name on it. kevin colden i spoke with an advisor. he told me we are going to see

donald trump use the same strategy used in the second debate. be very aggressive against hillary clinton. he is being advised by the rnc chairman as well as governor chris christie. pre-debatethere be a press conference with women alleging wrongdoing by bill clinton? kevin: we walked into that blindsided last time. do you think about this argument that trump is making, as a matter of politics? >> it makes sense to mobilize his base. lost iowa to ted cruz, he said there were something fishy going on there. after the convention, when he was slipping, he made the same argument. it's popular with his base. they like it. and 41% of the electric thinks there is a decent chance this

election could be stolen from him, including 73% of republican voters. talk about wikileaks. how much is the rnc relying on a gift from wikileaks to change the race? kevin: that is where they are right now. all of the sources in the trump campaign are adamant that things like a rigged election are the base, things like term limits in congress, and wikileaks. the media, in their minds, has played fairness. theya turnout perspective, think that could give them a boost on election day. a columnist from the new yorker said a lot of people are not motivated to get to the polls if they are independent. they feel this could help them

as well. john: do you think it is a fair critique of the press that we have not covered the wikileaks revelations enough? sahil: i think there would have been more wikileaks coverage of not for the trump tape. it's a sexier story. of all the things that have come out since the wikileaks disclosure last friday, are there any that will or you think should break ?hrough to voters of thei think some transcripts of her speeches to goldman sachs would have been useful in the hands of bernie sanders. cozyare painting her as with big banks. this will feed that narrative. it is standard for a lot of politicians to have a public and private view. negotiate one way, believe another wave.

they have to get beyond the headlines. talking aboutkeep conspiracies. it doesn't win him any one doesn't already have. he is trying to extend the math, primarily in arizona with michelle obama. they have hillary clinton going there. various other states are doing big and small things. what do you make of that strategy, the wisdom of it, and the potential efficacy of it? sahil: i think it's psy ops. they are trying to project an air of confidence. things are looking pretty bad for trump right now. right now, hillary clinton has a better shot of winning texas and arizona van trump has of winning colorado, virginia, or pennsylvania. yeah, wean element of are so far ahead and we are

sending one of our best surrogates there. it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to win, but they are trying to psych them out. out or who him cares? what is your view? kevin: i think they love fighting. be outer candidate would of this race or trailing even more significantly than trump is right now. he likes to fight. i think you will see that tomorrow night. but let's be realistic. he is down in the polls. when they see hillary clinton and arizona, do they think we have to get back to arizona again or do they think it means nothing? they need tok mobilize the grassroots. on other side has mobilized the issue of immigration. but arizona point-blank is all about immigration.

mark: there was a new policy ethics, yesterday on lobbying, term limits. are they going to continue to talk about policy? and i think specifically in regards to the rigged election. this is not a new, populous town. it is in regards to elections, but they are now -- populist .his is not atone, it is in regards to elections. both for coming on the show. you are both fantastic. we are going to head out to colorado. you can listen to us on radio bloomberg in addition to watching us. we will be right back. ♪

mark: welcome back to las vegas. with us now from colorado, where donald trump is currently holding a rally, she has one on him.us and one ear katie, what does the trump campaign think is going right these days? that's a good question. they think their rallies are going right. they like that. they are still getting pretty large crowds at various places around the country. fundraising is going well. small donor contributions are

coming in pretty hot on their website. headlines are the not going well for donald trump of these of the sexual assault thegations -- vis-a-vis sexual assault allegations. they are talking about election rigging, trying to hit that hard, but the headlines coming out are that donald trump is saying if he doesn't win it's a rigged election, and now we have president obama telling him to stop whining. the good news is not quite as dominating as the bad news at the moment. makingonald trump keeps the rigged election argument. people around him have tried to say what he means by rigged is that the media is against him. he is not talking about

electoral fraud. then trump comes out and tweets or says no, i am talking about electoral fraud. why is there so much disjuncture he tween what everyone in the trump campaign is trying to say he means on this -- between what everyone in the trump campaign's china say he means on this issue isin the trump campaign trying to say he means on this issue? happened inas number of times and in this particular case it is particularly glaring. donald trump will come out and tweets something like the polling is rigged. he said this on the campaign trail quite a bit as well, talking about it in pennsylvania quite a bit, we need to watch communities in philadelphia. he's talking about how dead people are still on the voting rolls and voting. a message resonating with

his base. they believe in some way the books were cooked against him. to show you that donald trump is the ultimate voice for his campaign. if he has an idea in his head, he's going to say it. that's while endow ski said let trump be trump. lewandowski said let trump be trump. i am not going to try to speak for him. mark: in most polls, trump is way behind. they are still looking for the right combination to get to 270 electoral votes. talk about this event compared to some other states where he has spent more time. trump got on stage and to the first thing he said was make

sure to mail in your vote. that's what you do in colorado. you mail in your vote. colorado is a tough state, and donald trump has not had a good operation here from the start. primaries, he basically did not show up for the convention, handed it over to ted cruz. donald trump talked about the gop convention being rigged against him then. this is the home of the never trump movement. he has vocal supporters here, and you can hear them behind me. but his support in this state is not as large as we see in other states, states they were specifically hoping to turn red after being in the democratic category. it's interesting that he spent so much time in colorado. he's down eight points in the canopy are -- in the quinnipiac poll.

hillary clinton is running a very close race in arizona. we are seeing chelsea clinton ,here, michelle obama there bernie sanders going there next week. donald trump did not plan to go back to arizona, but that is a state he clearly needs to focus more on if he needs to -- if he wants to maintain his lead there. hen: any thoughts on how will approach the debate tomorrow? you that therel will be the mother of somebody who died in benghazi sitting in the front row, the same mother who spoke at the convention. they clearly want to put hillary clinton in an uncomfortable position like they did at the last debate and try to get some sort of confrontational position out of it. thank you very much.

we will be right back in vegas after this. ♪

john: so, tomorrow night there's a debate. also, britney is coming back to play. what smart exciting for you? mark: -- what is more exciting to you? mark: i am looking forward to the debate. is it for us today. sayonara. ♪

nina: i am mean a menendez and you are watching bloomberg technology. warplanes are halting air strikes on the besieged city

of aleppo. it is intended to give civilians safe passage out of the city. german chancellor angela merkel will host a peace summit in berlin tomorrow. it is her first meeting in more than a year with russian, ukrainian, and french presidents, although she is downplaying expectations for any significant progress. for the first time ever, donald trump is on pace to outspend hillary clinton on tv ads this week. he is expected to spend $40 million on ads, compared to $10 million for clinton. -- $14 million on ads, compared to $10 million for clinton. folk magazine is officially backing hillary clinton for president. vogue