♪ >> at&t's deal for time warner faces a rocky path through washington with critics raising questions. iraq throws a spanner into opec's work, saying it should be exempt from cuts. election with the capitalize onur

malaysia's goldilocks moment. it is just after 7:00 a.m. in hong kong. good to see you. earnings in japan, china, and , and hundreds of china's top brass in beijing. will they shake up the top post? a lot to watch out for. news on mergers and acquisitions, at&t's is for time warner, british american tobacco looking to make a bid. we have google and apple on the docket, so it busy day. let's see how things are kicking off in the asia-pacific. australia, flat, not much price action, the asx 200 unchanged.

thatis ahead of the inflation number on wednesday. japan shares falling after that earthquake that hit western japan. , asould see a bounce back much as 200 points or so. 103.98.en of around closed marketst in the asia-pacific, labor day in new zealand, thailand shut to commemorate the king. that was an early look at the region. it seems like it will be mergers and acquisitions. coming friday, the first estimate of third-quarter gdp for the u.s., potentially 2.5%. some major deals we want to get to. about chinaoke

ocean wives deal -- ocean wide's deal. >> it will be a megamerger monday, one deal just hitting the tape. oceanwide, $2.7 billion, all caps deal for -- all cash deal for genworth. time warner stock took off late last week on the news of the at&t acquisition. that is raising concerns from

the candidates in the presidential election and from lawmakers. we will see how that plays out in the week ahead, particularly time warner stock. bank, near a, td deal for scott trade. a combination of two of the largest online brokerage, a sector heat up as of late. people close to the matter going to doeritrade this and two separate parts which will play out in the monday session. >> that was the m&a side. we have earnings action, including a lot of tech. >> friday was a lukewarm day. not hide the fact that microsoft was a champion. take a look at that. microsoft joins the club, better

than 5% at one point, joining intel and cisco. we have a double barrel this week with apple announcing earnings and products. set to announce earnings thursday after the bell . also, twitter and tesla on wednesday, and deutsche bank on thursday, crucial for the bank. there's said to be considering: back on u.s. operations. investors will be focused on how quickly the fed moves at this

point. we have an expectation that u.s. consumer confidence probably weakened a bit. that would be welcome after growth around 1%. thank you. now let's get to first word news. lloyd blankfein has said he personally supports and admires hillary clinton. previously shied away from publicly backing a candidate. he said his support could harm that person's chances. blank find says he has supportive of clinton now, although he does not agree with all policies. clinton has been attacked for links to goldman sachs could jac. ma is proposing using data to prevent crimes. to buy at was normal clock, pressure cooker, and gunpowder, but not normal to buy them together. he said the data would help to

notice of vicious transactions and take preemptive steps. this level of chinese money into hong kong stocks is drying up. the flood of cash earlier this month has slowed to a trickle. $8estors and shanghai spent billion on hong kong shares in september, the biggest monthly inflows since the stock connect was launched in 2014. mobius says a rally for small cap stocks may extend further on signs interest rates are headed down. he says india is in a sweet spot with lots of opportunities. made india a top pick and emerging market investing, as much as $2 billion. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. we are at the start of the

most important days on the chinese political calendar. we have a preview. party discipline is the theme. >> there is lot of speculation as to what they will talk about. party congress is critical on the landscape in china because the president will be entering his second term. yetas not named a successor or a narrowed list of successors, so that political jockeying will be happening behind closed doors and western beijing for the next four days, and that is what this is all about. the president will be

institutionalizing his anticorruption clans and also maintaining loyalty among the contrails. 400 leaders will be gathering behind closed doors while other cadres will be jockeying for position. they want to be promoted because next year's party congress will have a revamping of the standing committee. at least five members likely to be replaced. who havesenior leaders surpassed the retirement age, so there will be a lot going on. let's bring up some quick bullet points to see why the plenum matters. plenum behind closed doors, with a can get down to the ,itty-gritty, and in past years talked abouting market forces playing a better

role in the economy. and last year's relaxing of the one-child policy. >> what will be the top of the agenda here? >> it will be instilling party loyalty and also institutionalizing the anticorruption probe going on for more than four years now, hundreds of thousands of officials have been ensnared, and he wants to make it a part of party discipline, institutionalizing that, so that will be likely on the top of his but no major economic policy shifts are expected. we could get further revamping of the military. had steps to professionalize the military and downsize as well in the past. state owned enterprise reform is a hot button issue. >> to be a fly on that wall. thank you very much.

and thet asia now, malaysian prime minister has delivered a budget that allocates millions of dollars to young, and rural voters as he tries to shore up his power base after a year of scandals and the possibility of early elections. it looks like this will be a feel-good budget formulation. haslinda: something for everyone. the poor, discounts, student loans, and tax relief. bonuses, cheaper, bigger housing. they will have access to motorcycle loans, if they want, so yes, a feel-good budget after a year of political turmoil and scandals surrounding 1mdb. sloan economy a while keeping voters happy at a time when oil prices are low and denting malaysia's revenue.

global risks are rising. take a look at this bloomberg chart. it shows you how malaysia has been running a deficit since 1998. to keep the deficit under control, one economist says it is a fine balancing act. oil is the wildcard here. how confident can he be given this political turmoil? happentions will not until 2018, but may happen as early as march. they say that budget is an attempt to buy and win the hearts of the people. they walked out during the budget announcement. despite allegations of corruption, investigators across several countries, he has secured recent victories and local polls, boosting his grip on power, and some say because

the opposition partners are increasingly divided, he and his allies are likely to be involved in. he retains his support in the broader ruling coalition. it could still not be as smooth sailing as he would like. thank you. iraq says the fight against islamic militants means it should be exempt from opec's cut. we will discuss the challenges facing the cartel. >> next, china's the next five years. we will discuss that. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: we are counting down to asia's market opens this morning. sydni down by .25%. movers,orth nw after news that china oceanwide

is buying his largest shareholder. santos up after cooper agreed to a deal. santos is still halted from trade. "daybreak asiag ." families has beens known for all the shares. that is 20 million more than rinehart.-- collins betting everything inside the airliners will be smarter with a $6.4 billion deal. it bought the largest air

equipment supplier for cabins allowing them to provide more information. it is expected to be completed early next year. yvonne: national security issues the dealo have killed by on bond insurance to buy a hotel in southern california. concerns on foreign investment in the united states. peninsula that a is one of the main trading areas for navy seals. there is no formal for the sixth party plenum, but corruption is expected to be tackled. good to speak with you. we are talking about how there could be this focus on anticorruption. how much deeper could the

president go? >> the anticorruption drive has xi jinpinging that has been focusing on since he took over as secretary general of the communist party. we've seen some of the most romantic and high-profile cases already. he effectively changed some unwritten rules at the top of the communist party by taking down one former member of the and two committee former vice chairs of the central military committee. it will be interesting to see how that can be topped over the coming years. i think what this is about is trying to give a message, that anticorruption is not just a short-term thing a. it is something the party should take seriously for the longer-term. if it does, greater chance of staying in power. if it doesn't, it could go bad for those of the top.

ramy: leadership changes may also be in the cards. where might the changes be? the standing committee? the politburo? we will seehink anything over the next few days. there is a five year cycle, and that leads to 2017 for the next big national congress. is importantm because it kicks off the preparation for the congress next year. the selection of the delegates, which will happen through blocks across party and state institutions in the military, and the drafting of the report that will be delivered next autumn by xi jinping, so it will provide an update on where the parties strategic goals are over the five years to 2022. personnel staff will not be dealt with this week, but next

year will be important because it was the turnover at the top of the party. xi, there talk about is speculation that he might stay in power beyond the two terms expected. thinkty radical move, do this will be significant for the political elite and investors? >> it is a bit early to say, but year ismight see next whether anyone else stays on beyond the retirement stage, so that will be an indicator of whether xi jinping might be preparing the ground to stay on beyond 2022. one of the big things we have seen in chinese politics is an institutionalization of the process at the top, age limits, two terms for the guys of the top and no more. raises changes, that questions for people about where chinese politics is headed. seems to bemantra

centralized the power and then focus on the growth. to sustainontinue it that way when you see reforms losing momentum? when do we get to see deleveraging, restructuring be more than talk? >> it is a really big challenge. what we have seen is incremental progress towards a reform agenda. in november 2013, the motto was the market should play a decisive role. i think if we look at the longer-term, market forces, particularly at the local level, have grown in their significance. companies in china are playing a much more important role in the economy than in the past. , andconomy is changing will be changing irrespective of what the party leadership says at the top.

over the next year, probably not much dramatic in terms of policy change. i think the emphasis will be on stability in the run-up to next year's congress. yvonne: what would have to reform?o spark more doing need to see the housing bubble burst to get the government to do something more? it is tricky. because some of the crises have not led to reform, but a return to the old ways of doing things. 2008, theink back to turning on of the credit taps. way, it is perhaps almost the other way around. if there is political stability , big government and the party can manage that process. tricky, theo be chinese leadership will be looking at global economic

economic uncertainty, u.s. elections, brexit, the rest of it. it's not looking like an easy time for them. yvonne: 2016 as the year of uncertainty on the political front, great to get your perspective ahead of the sixth party plenum they are. up next, uber has a strategy to drive growth in laurel japan. we will be live in tokyo next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: you are watching "daybreak asia". the average passenger in china is over 70 and most of them don't own a smartphone. i have been to this town.

tell us more about it and why cooper japan is interested. -- uber japan is interested. about six hours by train and bus. it is a small, beautiful town on the coast, famous for making kimono textiles. of, butn is a textile now only 6000 people left. folks, generally in japan, people are having less babies. you have pensioners aging more and more, and so what that has left the town with is that it is so small that it lost its only taxi company. it only has one bus route, so a lot of these aging people still need things, so they take the wheel themselves, but that is

dangerous. manugust, a 90-year-old killed someone walking on the street. the transportation in the small town has been decimated, so what they reached out and offered to provide them with a ridesharing program. the japanese government gave them an exemption. if the town is too small to support a proper transportation network, the japanese government said you can operate unlicensed cars there, so uber began a of giving this town rights to 70-year-olds and 80 urals, and this is uber's actual ridesharing program in japan. they have been shut down everywhere else in the big cities, so it is kind of an

interesting thing. terrific reporting. i encourage everyone to check this out. great stuff. thank you very much.

yvonne: it is 7:30 a.m. in hong kong. we are seeing a steady morning here as schools open. training sessions probably going to open this morning as well in hong kong. ramy: 7:30 p.m. sunday here in new york. i'm ramy inocencio. yvonne: and i'm yvonne man in hong kong. you are watching "daybreak: asia ." let's get the first word news with rosalind chin. >> at&t to buy time warner for $84 billion forming a new telecom and media empire. warnerl values time

20% above friday's closing price. the deal includes hbo, cnn, and the warner bros. studio, allowing at&t to expand into media and entertainment. td ameritrade and its largest stakeholder, td bank, are said to the near a deal to buy scott trade financial services. sources tell us td ameritrade would take scott's brokerage operations for about $2.7 billion. the deal would combine two of the largest online brokerages. malaysia has announced a budget that hints at early elections. the prime minister listed millions of ringgit in cash and grants for lower income citizens and young people. they include cheaper housing, discounts on student loans, and tax relief on smartphones and tablets. this aims to boost growth and shore up his support after

months of political turmoil and financial scandal. china's leaders gathered this week for the final communist party plenum before next year's congress. the central committee issued guidelines on the implementation of the current five-year plan. they include what is called the appropriate relationship between the government and the market, the rule of law, and enhanced supervision's. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: look at how the asian markets are shaping up. here's david ingles. david: at this point only one market is open. weakness in the aussie market. we are seeing declines, not a lot, every sector down, with the exception of a few mining names. not enough to lift the overall tide. new zealand is closed, as is thailand.

when you look at what is happening on the nikkei, we are getting a decent bid here, perhaps down to the weaker yen. we could be looking at roughly one third, maybe one fourth of 1% higher. it is going to be a very busy session. have a look at what we are expecting out of the asia-pacific. japan is in the next. i would watch out for singapore inflation. we are expecting a drop of 0.1%. all of this basically comes on top of a ton of earnings and deals coming through as well. it was a very busy weekend for the bankers. as far as earnings are concerned, 40% off the s&p 500. ramy: busy over here in the u.s. looking at currencies, the bloomberg dollar spot index was up on friday, reigning supreme again. give us a sense of where we are

going. david: i guess with the dollar strength -- and we are still seeing that this morning. it is still very early. i would be interested to see when tokyo really gets up and running. said, euro-dollar, 1.0881, the lowest since march 2 of the year. i think the next level we are watching for, this level right here, that is 1.08860. people are going to see whether we break below that. pound-sterling, 1.2217. we are getting to levels here where you are getting a diverse range of views. citi is saying we could be looking at 1.15 to 1.20 into early 2017. socgen saying they are looking at 1.20 to 1.29.

that is what they are saying. the one i'm working here is a currency called the renminbi. it is a currency of a country called china. that is a new low here. september 10, 2010. specific stocks to watch, dave? david: we were talking earlier about this big deal. have a look at some of the names. tsnc, one of them. some news out of nikkei that they are supplying 100% of chips for the current generation of apple. china ocean wide agreeing to buy this company's top holder. up 3% at onewas point. the stock is lifted in hong kong. let's see how that plays out. it is 4.2% premium.

ramy: thanks very much. back here in the u.s., we are set to release third-quarter gdp later this week on friday. the data will be closely watched by the fed and everyone else. kathleen hays is here. how important is this set of numbers? >> the gdp number is really the one to watch. is,onday, u.s. monday that a few hours from now, there's going to be three fed bank presidents speaking and a fed bank governor. there's a conference where two of them are going to be speaking. will they echo what the san francisco president said on friday? he wants to see inflation top 2% in the u.s., but is ready to go. let's jump back into the bloomberg. hike, 17% odds. almost 60% odds of the move in

december. our bloomberg intelligence team, they say the consumer is going to leave that third-quarter gdp to re-accelerated. that is what the fed is waiting for. let's look at a nice bart chart showing that we are looking for u.s. gdp to be up 2.5%, a big , excuse me,4% today in the second quarter. today, charlie evans, he's a dove who changed his mind. he's ok with a rate hike this year. if you want to follow all this, the fed speakers, the key data, fed. that is where you go on this terminal. ramy: let's go to the pacific. japan, the week kicks off with traded up and inflation as well as jobs reports. looking for the boj, the inflation, the labor market data, the spending data. the the a j in september

switched its inflation target just a bit, overshooting. if we jump back into the bloomberg for a chart of the key inflation metrics for japan, we see the white line, cpi year over year. it was up into 2014 until the yen got strong and oil prices got week. cpi, bothod from the of them running at 0.5% year-over-year in the last report. bloomberg intelligence pointing out that the data on jobs this week, a bright spot for inflation. we expect to see the labor market as strong, even stronger. brexit is in focus again as mark carney faces questions from lawmakers. what are we going to learn about brexit's economic impact? >> we know that mark carney was pounding the table on what a drastic impact brexit could have

on the u.k. economy back in august. they moved aggressively to cut interest rates, to buy more more u.k. government bonds, and to add corporate bond buying into the mix. you might think that it is not a more u.k. government concern to the bank of england. let's look at our u.k. eco-team chart. the forecast for the gdp growth for third quarter in the u.k. is only 0.3%. the quarter before it was 0.7%. at that level, it would be running about half the rate u.k. gdp has been running for quarter for four years. bloomberg intelligence reminds us that we are coming up on the november bank of england meeting, but no rate cut expected from our bloomberg intelligence team in the u.k. until february. carney is sure to get some grilling on this. yvonne: kathleen hays, thank you. a group of australian razors has

made a rival bid for the giant outback cattle stations of s kidman and company. that does beat the offer made by reinhardt and her chinese business partner. paul allen joins us from sydney with more. this new bid seems to be at a premium to what reinhardt is offering. what more do we know? >> there are four bidders involved, bbho, which is an acronym of their surnames. together, they are all very successful cattle grazers in their own right. runs ranches in the northern territory, once had landholdings of more than 2.5 million hectares. brink worth has 40,000 cattle as well. these are very big, experienced cattle grazers.

the kidman property itself is huge, more than 100,000 square kilometers. it accounts for more than 1% of the entire australian landmass. this would enlarge the kidman heard to half a million head of cattle. kidman'sd leverage very long history in australia. ramy: that is a lot of cattle. where does this leave the bid of gina rinehart and her chinese business partners? >> it is still very much alive. in an e-mailed statement, a spokesperson for reinhardt said the values of the bid are about the same when you take into account things like break these and a couple other properties that have been taken off the original offer. what could be the dealbreaker is the new bid is an all australian offer, which means it doesn't need approval from the government. an earlier bid was knocked back

because of the south australian landholdings. that particular holding of kidman was close to a weapons testing range. there is some sensitivity around foreign involvement. that could prove to be the dealbreaker. ramy: keeping it in australian hands there potentially. thanks very much. coming up, the outlook for oil amid warnings it may take years for prices to recover. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: you are watching "daybreak: asia." i'm yvonne man in hong kong. ramy: and i'm ramy inocencio in new york. the latest business flash headlines, u.s. corporations are seeing annual profit growth for the first time in six quarters. s&p 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results grew profits by an average 3.8%. analysts expecting an end to the

longest earnings recession since the financial crisis. investors remain cautious because of the upcoming u.s. presidential election. the u.k. economy may be weathering brexit better than many expected, but it is still heading for its weakest performance in a year. gdp rose 0.4% last quarter. economists we surveyed predicting 0.3% in the three months since the decision to leave the eu. the head of the u.k. banking group says lenders will start relocating out of the country by the end of the year. the british bankers association told the observer that many smaller banks will begin the move, with bigger names following. ceo anthony brown said banks must prepare for the worst as the debate is taking the u.k. in the wrong direction. yvonne: time for a quick look at what we are watching.

no rest for rodrigo duterte a. he makes his way to japan on tuesday for talks with his counterpart, shinzo abe. the various territorial claims in the east are likely to be raised there. tuesday brings us to the first day of trading for jr q shoe. they are said to have traded even higher in the green market. the ipo is the third largest in the world, raising $4 billion. bank of japan kicks off earnings on wednesday. analysts expecting almost zero profit growth as bad loans continue to rise. outbank and ccp are due with results on thursday. samsung released third-quarter sales figures on thursday after cutting profit guidance by $2.3 billion due to the note 7 crisis. meets russian oil officials in vienna on friday to discuss

how to allocate agreed output cuts. crude prices have risen more than 7% in slate september, when oil producers agreed to limit output. we are joined by the local head of commodities and rail assets at s&p dow jones indices. great to have you. we talk about iran, libya, nigeria, likely to be exempt from reduction. iraq wants to be part of that group. give us a sense how big this is for opec. >> what we are watching is the u.s. inventories. we feel they need to be low in order for the opec cuts to matter. the cuts from opec that have been announced so far have been relatively small. they may not be that meaningful regardless. with or without iraq, just nigeria and libya alone can fill up more than half of that cap. yvonne: prices hovering around

$50 a barrel, what does that mean for the shale producers? producers have been able to come online faster than they ever have before. they can come on as fast as between six and nine months. they are adjusting quickly. from last year, u.s. and china have both reduced supply. opec, while their inventory and supply has been growing, the non-opec supply has been shrinking. we are still watching the u.s. production and we are watching that the inventories need to come down before opec cuts matters. they can't act as the cartel they once good. ramy: you say volatility is good for oil trading. how does one take advantage of this when we see the ups and downs every day? >> that is exactly how they might take it vantage of it, by

seeing those ups and downs. in the most volatility front month contract. for investors that are more long-term, they would be sitting further out. that means excess inventory. for the traders that are looking for the opportunistic gains on a day-to-day basis, the front month contract would be the pace -- the place to play for them. ramy: i want to move into metals as well as precious metals. you say you are going to see continued inflows into gold. this is despite us potentially seeing a december rate hike. i want to give a recap as to where we are. funds,n terms of fed futures. this is nearly a done deal according to people we are talking to. where do you see gold trading at the end of the year and why? >> gold is never really

influenced by one single factor. the interest rates, the dollar strength, the inflation, all have to come together with other catalysts like etf buying. if there's continued weakness in the financial sector, if we see sluggish global growth, and if we see a potentially strong dollar, that could be mixed for gold. it could actually mean that gold is a place that there's a lot of upside opportunity. it is a safe haven. aboutould rise up to $1800, even as high as $1880, without being an unprecedented rise. there's a lot of opportunity for gold, always a good diversifier for stocks, and more of a safe haven.

as the uncertainty holds, gold could be a place to hide. ramy: jodie gunzberg, thanks very much. we've got some breaking news. japan has released its latest trade data. atalind: we are looking trade data for the month of september that has come in better than analysts expected. the trade balance for september is ¥498.3 billion. of 19.2een a deficit million yen. really springing back from that surprised deficit in august. exports down by 6.9% in august -- sorry, in september, which is less than expected. economists had been looking at a fall of 10.8%. imports down less than expected. they had been looking for a fall of 17%. this number is far better than economists expected.

economists had been expecting a surplus, but perhaps not as great as this. exports have been falling for the last 11 months. there is some hope perhaps that external demand may be able to drive a bit more growth in japan's economy. that is despite a strong yen. the yen strengthening about 16% against the dollar and the start of this year. the data in october has been lackluster. we are looking for stronger mothers -- numbers perhaps later this month. ramy: thanks very much. not much of a change, weaker by about 0.1%, but that had been the same even before those numbers came out. chinese companies have been on a global shopping spree, wrecking a bill worth $207 billion. more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: you are watching "daybreak: asia." i'm ramy inocencio in new york. yvonne: and i'm yvonne man in hong kong. china ocean wide will bike in worth financial -- buy genow worth financial. genworth will become a standalone unit in virginia. ocean wide has operations in real estate, electric power, and capital investment. plenty of m&a to talk about this week. china has been on a buying spree, announcing a $207 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions this year. you can go to our website to take a look at it. you can see the total volume of china's overseas deals in the

last 10 years or so has skyrocketed. china superseding the u.s. let's bring in bloomberg deals reporter jonathan browning. he joins us here on set. this hasn't exactly been very smooth sailing. tell us more about china. how have they been able to overcome the obstacles in these deals? >> what we are seeing is the emergence of this generation of savvy acquirers, dealmakers that have notched multiple deals. each time, they're acquiring expertise in terms of how to negotiate the pitfalls, the regulatory concerns, we tend to think about regulatory concerns as the host country in the u.s. and europe especially, but also in china, where there are concerns from the regulators as far as the currency goes, as well as antitrust. madea has shown itself to

be a savvy dealmaker. >> they've actually notched or attempted to notch two deals in the last year. with the acquisition of the german robotics maker, madea came up against the entire german political establishment with its deal there. what it managed to do was actually get management on-site and then what happened with management could get customers onside, which is crucial to get this deal accomplished. ramy: jonathan browning, bloomberg deals reporter, on the challenges that chinese companies face. really interesting stuff. plenty more still to come with asia's first major markets open just minutes away. yvonne: a mixed open here with

new zealand and aussie closed. but we see some pressure at the open. japan could be seeing a bounce back. more to come here.

♪ yvonne: signs of life in japan, exports and imports fell less than expected. ramy: a rocky road to washington, critics raising questions. china's elite gather, promising discipline and a crackdown on corruption. ramy: baghdad casts doubt on opec production cuts, says its fight means iraq should be

exempt. yvonne: this is the second hour of "daybreak asia". i am yvonne man. it is just past 8:00 p.m. here in new york. good to see you. happy monday to you. a quick check of where we ended up on friday, a mixed ending, the s&p flat. datave a slew of earnings and fed governors speaking and m&a data. ofnne: not to mention 400 china's top brass meeting for the sixth party plenum. will xi jinping extend his power? that is the big question. it is party time in beijing.

40% of the s&p 500 coming out with earnings this week, so hopefully we can breakout of a trading range. few rangesken out a when it comes to the currency market. at theia, session lows moment, everything down. if you dig deeper, there might spots.w broadly speaking, it is a broad-based selloff. thailand close for a public holiday. i descended for the nikkei, and will talk more about that later on. some other data due out this monday. japan.tes, pmi out of a bit later on, inflation reads out of singapore and vietnam. that inflation

gauge out of the lion city. we are expecting .1%. guys. moving higher against , what are you watching specifically when it comes to currencies? the dollar index pushing higher on that metric. 98.70, if i'm not mistaken. , a bigtching the euro drop on friday. we are still well below 109. it takes you back to levels of last march. the next level you want to watch , 108.60-ish.rch 1

you do have fibonacci retracement for 18 months. this is right below that 61% level. have a look at where we are for pound sterling, consolidating at these levels, but a lot of the verging views on where we go on pound sterling. lower,looking at a trend but citibank says 115-120. let me wrap things up with a look at the offshore renminbi. continuing to weaken there. thank you very much. in the u.s., major deals on wall street. china oceanwide to buy genworth dealcial, at&t-time warner

, and the td ameritrade that crossed. su keenan is here. merger monday will be jammed packed. stock, likelyth to be on the move. it could move fire because the cash deal from china oceanwide is for five dollars 43 some fish share. -- $5.43 a share. on a tearr has been in speculation of the deal with at&t. it finalized on saturday. billion, $107 a share. some are actually saying it could be an awkward marriage. ift is not the only concern he gets caught up in regulatory

hurdles. swings cause ace problem for banks involved. chase and bank of america could get caught up in the regulatory impact. the banks could be on the line as well. said to beameritrade near a $4 billion deal. ramy: a lot of m&a here. a slew of earnings reports. su: absolutely. earnings are the big theme. a lackluster session on friday, but microsoft the standout star. they hit a record on friday. you will see that we have andosoft adjoining intel

cisco in terms of knocking it out of the park with earnings. we have a number of companies apple reporting and the latest products. we also have deutsche bank. ramy: looking forward to that. let's get first word news. lloyd blankfein has said he personally supports and admires hillary clinton. he had shiedew away from publicly backing a presidential candidate, saying support could harm the person's chances. he is supportive of clinton, although he does not agree with all her policies. chinese billionaire jack ma has advice for the nation's top security bureau. to preventsing data crime. in a speech, he said it was a pressure cooker

gunpowder, but not together. he's said that data would help the government notice suspicious transactions and take preemptive steps. the flow of chinese money and the hong kong stocks is drying up. it has now slowed to a trickle. investors and shanghai spent more than $8 billion on hong kong shares in september, the biggest inflow since the stock connect was launched in 2014. buying this month has been 7% of that. mark mobius says a three-year rally for indian small-cap stocks may extend further with interest rates heading down. he says india is in a sweet spot with opportunities. his emerging markets group has made india a top, investing as much as $2 billion. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

, opec: oil investors tries to finalize its deal to limit output. there are doubts about the plan. rosneft says it should be prevent from cuts. what kind of obstacle is this now? has just thrown a spanner into it. it makes a lot more work for opec before november. it is typical posturing from opec members. want to seem to encourage price gains, but not always participate in that cut. prices, there is time to go before we get to that november meeting. investors are

comfortable that opec may work out a deal. yvonne: they are comfortable, but in order for these cuts to matter, we need to see u.s. oil inventories decreased quite a bit. absolutely. that is the biggest risk for opec. by cutting, you allow others to produce. you give them an opportunity there. we are seeing stockpiles come down. it is trending and the right direction at the moment. willhinking is that prices ,luctuate between $50 and $60 so they may move in that range for the near future. yvonne: thank you. still ahead, a record year for chinese m&a. we crunch the numbers on china's worldwide shopping spree. ramy: why the fed does not need

to hike in september. this is bloomberg. ♪

watching "daybreak asia". seeking approval to liquidate operations in europe. a judge has yet to agree to the sale. hanjin has branches in nine operations european yield a lower margins. as awant to sell hanjin complete entity. shares down 11%. one of australia's biggest beef producers is under threat after an offer was beaten.

rinehart bid for kidman. collins offersl a $6.4 billion deal for the largest equipment supplier for aircraft cabins, a deal that represents a 23% premium and expected to be completed next year. good to see you. draghi --rio relatively unscathed, what is the one thing you watch for this week? >> i don't think there is much

data this week. have bigger news when we get payroll numbers and go to the election, but i'm not expecting banks,ti from central so hopefully this will be a relatively stable and quiet week. i want to throw out this chart here. the vixtly fixate on for stocks. 10 year yields sharply higher. should we be concerned about complacency? there is a lot of negative

news out there in terms of central banks ending qe, the fed hiking in december, rising inflationary trends that could push yields higher. that is not our base case scenario. in a lowill growth-low-inflation environment. yields represent more a buying than one to worry for yields going significantly higher than where we are right now. yvonne: we have been talking about skincare yield curves, and janet yellen talking about the economy running hot. can they actually raise rates the high and produce pressure economy that can ramp up inflation? i think that is the big question. get into the issues of how effective is qe over the longer run, and the answer were

seeing now is that it is the ,oming less and less effective so the idea of yield curves remaining steep in my mind are unlikely. i think you will see continuing flattening of the yield curve with actual race over the long run. ramy: you say the fed does not need to do a rate hike in december. we are seeing fed fund futures up by 68%. indicators, headline inflation, core inflation, jobs numbers, all trending positively, so why not? the job numbers have traded positively for the last 6-7 years, even though we had 156,000 jobs last month, a good number for the long run, and that is the more recent average monthly job gains, lower today issue015, but my bigger is wage gains in the u.s., up , even stanley

fischer said he would like to see wage gains in the 3% range before the start worrying about inflation flowing through to the economy. i think the fed can afford to wait a little bit longer. i think you have a lot of uncertainty ahead, not only with u.s. elections, but risks in europe and asia as well that have historically are allowed the fed to be on hold longer than they would like. ramy: the u.s. elections, two weeks away until those elections. i want to show our viewers the latest tabs on what has been happening in terms of the election. the blue line on the bottom left is where hillary clinton is .alling, 47.7% what is the general sentiment, a sigh of relief? think it is becoming less

and less likely that donald trump becomes president, and the probability of that is now something less than 15%. the bigger question will be the makeup of congress and whether the democrats connection control the house of representatives, which would mean more of hillary clinton's policies would actually make it through. congress, yout will see more of a standstill that we have seen over the last four years where it is one of compromise and won't really matter as much because a lot of those policies won't get through because they can't get funded by congress. ramy: they just might be shy by 10 seats in the house, but it still might take the senate. i know you are a bond sky, but risk assets, with those performed well? we are just bond managers,

but if i could take more risk, i think you continue buying risky central bank qe policies are the only game in town. they will continue it or the long run. they are becoming less effective, but you really have no other choice. for me, the end of 2016 in the beginning of 2017 looks a lot like we have seen over the last banksars where central will push you into riskier and riskier assets and they will continue to be supported by investors moving out of zero and negative rate environment. ramy: searching for yield. thank you very much. up next, the u.s. reports third quarter economic growth on friday. the fed will be watching closely. i look ahead to that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: you are watching

"daybreak asia" i am yvonne man. ramy: a big week for central banks. for a look at the key numbers and keyfor a look at the key nus and key speakers, let's start with japan. >> we just saw in japan slung into a big trade surplus in september. now the focus is on inflation. the boj no longer wants to get inflation close to that 2% target. it was to overshoot the 2% target. the bloomberg to show you what japan is up against. the white line is japan cpi, now , takeear-over-year basis out fresh food, the core cpi also in negative territory, so far from 2% that i can barely see.

bloomberg intelligence points out that labor market data will be a bright spot this week. healthy, andket is if it is healthy, wages grows to comment could be good for the inflation rate. thing, tradee one data, inflation, what is key for the boj? >> i would say inflation. the federal reserve is also looking at inflation. have fed speakers in the gdp report coming out this week. i think president and fed governor will be speaking, but are they all on board for a rate hike? let's jump into the bloomberg now, interest-rate projections have not changed much. corner,ft-hand december, 67.6% the fed will move. what is key to make this move? growth in the economy. let's look at a chart from the

bloomberg that shows gdp growth is expected to jump to 2.5% when we get that number on friday quite a move up from 1.4%. go a lasthing is fed you to look at all kinds of things on the terminal that have to do with the fed. all these fairy metrics, the numbers the fed is watching, fed go is a great tool when trying to figure out the fed. brexit is back in focus as mark carney faces questions from lawmakers. what are we expecting? >> we expect a grilling on tuesday, mark carney testifying before the upper house of parliament. you may recall that the brexit vote could have a large impact on the u.k. economy, so the boe cut their key rate, stepped up

government buying and corporate bonds. chart thathow you a illustrates how much they are pulling back in terms of gdp growth. the economy has not performed as poorly as some thought it might after that brexit vote, but to a gain ofg 0.3%. it was your .7% in the previous quarter. at 0.3%, that would be less than half of the quarterly average of u.k. gdp numbers over the past four years, so that is definitely a dramatic pullback. we have the federal reserve meeting next week, november 2. we have that boe meeting on november 3, nothing expected. hard brexit could

becoming very real. thank you. some other news, hedge funds signaling corn could head for a rebound after trimming back on price to kleins. holdings contracted by 47% last week, the smallest bearish bet on the commodity since july. corn futures in chicago have recovered 12% since hitting a seven-year low in august. ramy: petrobras has settled lawsuits linked to a corruption investigation. the company saying it will $353 million provision to reflect those agreements. it still faces 23 similar cases as well as a class-action lawsuit brought by minority shareholders. yvonne: plenty more to come here , the mostak asia" important event on china's political calendar, the sixth as hundreds of

china's top brass convene in beijing. find out what kind of changes are on the table. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: it is a 30 a.m. in singapore, half an hour away from the open of trading, inflation numbers coming out from the lion city later this afternoon comics acted to remain negative for september. i am yvonne man. you are watching "daybreak asia". now first word news. exports fell. overseas shipments fell, while imports shrank 16%, a trade

surplus of $4.8 billion. the yen gained 16% this year. iraq has thrown a spanner in the works for opec, claiming it should be exempted from production cups. the second-biggest producer says its worked with islamist militants means it needs to keep pumping. the oil minister says output is 4.7 million barrels a day, .5 million more than opec's official figure. slumping on reports it is seeking court approval to liquidate european operations. it has yet to agree to the sale. operations yields lower margins than other routes. the court says it wants to sell hanjin as a complete entity. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: let's check how asian

markets are shaping up. no consistent direction so far. we are gearing up for what will be a busy week for earnings. 40% of s&p 500 reporting, so hopefully it breaks is out of this tight trading range. is any market story, it is u.s. dollar strength. let me break apart what is happening at the moment. when you look at all strata, down again for a second straight day. every sector down, not a rush for the exits. getting a lift for big names getting bid up. were looking at a few bits and pieces of earnings coming out. the yen pushing towards 104 is now pulling back. other things we are following,

gdp out of south korea tomorrow, oil prices pulling back following the developments out of iraq. out now,last thing taiwan's jobless rate, 3.93%. that market opens at the top of this hour. guys. yvonne: any specific stock movers right now? david: a few. sharp, 5.5%. aboutd this news story wanting to close down one of its plants and pullback lcd operations, but we are up 24% from this time a week and a half ago or two weeks ago. overbought.shing you look at the 14-day rsi.

riskshe bank warning of associated with his cost guidance. it really does not have any pricing power. shares are down the most in over two years. it says it now holds 100 market share when it comes to chips of the current apple iphone generation. thank you. where at the start of an important few days on the asnese political calendar leaders go behind doors for the commonest parties sixth party plenum. didn't heal from neil ferguson on singapore last week, and he was saying how this is equally important as a hillary clinton or donald trump presidency. >> if you think the u.s. political campaign is charged,

chinese political environment is doubly that. this happens behind doors. this is happening ahead of next year's big party congress, where they will get a reshuffle of the standing committee, five of the seven expected to be reshuffled, also the central committee and politburo, people jockeying for position. , and weo leaders gather don't know what they will be talking about because this is behind closed doors. the plenum is closed doors and we don't know what they will say. they kind of chart the course for the next year. for thert the agenda national people's congress, and also laying the groundwork for the party congress next year. again, xi jinping is expected to

shake up top posts and support party discipline. yvonne: he might extend the term too. gotten a narrowed list of successors. he will be entering his second term next year, and we don't know, so he could still be consolidating his power here. what i'm seeing about anticorruption initiatives, vacation initiatives, is that going to be the topic as well? >> absolutely. he will be institutionalizing this anticorruption campaign. to instill party loyalty and be the figurehead leading this charge and make it part of party discipline. of thousands of party, phrase have been ensnared in this anticorruption campaign. flies,f tigers, a lot of

how much further it will go is anybody's guess. have probably seen some of the most traumatic and high-profile cases already. changed someively of the unwritten rules at the top of the communist party by taking down one former member of the standing committee and two former vice chairs of the central military commission, so difficult to see how that can be topped over the coming years. what this is more about is trying to give a message to the party that anticorruption is not just a short-term thing as xi jinping cements his power. no big economic policy shifts expected, but we could get details after the plenum on state owned enterprises reform, which is a touchy subject among the leaders in this congress party because of vested interests, but also the revamp of the military. ramy: thank you very much. from chinese governance to the

future of malaysian governance, the prime minister has a budget that allocates millions of dollars for the poor, the young, voters as he tries to shore up his power base ahead of possible early elections. let's get to our southeast asia correspondent. it seems like this is a good budget for many. haslinda: that's right. targeting the indigenous people in particular. the prime minister is giving them cash handouts because he , bonuses forupport civil servants, cheap housing, better power and water supply , discounted student loans for those in school, so not surprising that some are saying that he is using the budget to win support.

the thing is he is trying to do that at a time when the economy is slowing and oil prices are getting smacked. running aas been budget deficit since 1998, said the prime minister's trying to prop up the economy and spending while trying to keep deficit under control. he is also trying to do is limit the damage of all the political scandals in the past year. there have been calls for him to step down. he has been entangled in the 1mdb soccer with investigations ongoing. it is a balancing act. are a elections expected to be called, and will be smooth sailing for the prime minister? haslinda: it will be difficult. 2018,ection is not due to that it may happen as early as march. opposition lawmakers are saying the budget is an attempt to buy votes and win the hearts of the people ahead of the polls. during the out

budget announcement, but having said that, the prime minister has shown he's still maintain support in recent local elections, victories losing his grip on power, and because the opposition parties are increasingly divided, the prime minister position looks pretty secure. we have to wait and see what happens in the coming month. yvonne: thank you. rival genworth, to buy for $2.7 billion. oceanwide has operations in real estate, electric power, and capital investment. china has been on a buying spree, announcing $207 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions this year.

just go to our website, bloomberg.com, you can see the volume of these overseas deals we have seen in the last 10 years. we have seen where china supersedes the u.s. when it with to the value of that, the u.s. at 180 billion dollars in china $207 billion. we have been crunching the numbers. this hasn't been completely smooth sailing for china. able to they been overcome the obstacles? thee tended to think of opposition we might find in the u.s. especially, and to a certain extent in europe, but it is also in china that this new generation of dealmakers, they need to negotiate the pitfalls with the currency regulator and the antitrust body and the various other regulators that

make up the chinese agencies. yvonne: you mentioned some savvy dealmakers. a company that we don't talk about hugely. it is not a brand that many people have been familiar with before, and they try to do to bank deals this year. they have successfully negotiated the german economy minister's opposition to take a kuka.lling stake in reported they were after ge's appliance business, but that was bought by another chinese buyer. ramy: what is one of the biggest challenges faced when chinese companies trying to do what has been done? as far as kuka, they did not

want crucial technology falling into chinese hands. he put up a for sale sign saying would anybody else be interested in buying kuka. those efforts were unsuccessful. managed tond midea was build support that allow them to go ahead and do with this acquisition and completed. ramy: a domino effect to success. thank you very much. gut feelings be the key to successful investments? we hear from a trader turned new, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: you are watching "daybreak

asia". issues national security are said to have killed a deal insurance to buy a hotel in california. concerns after the committee for foreign investment in the united states expressed concerns. it is also near one of the main training grounds for navy seals. ramy: annual profit growth for u.s. corporations for the first time in six quarters. s&p 500 compans grew profit by an average 3.8% over the past year. analysts are expecting an end to the longest earnings recession since the financial crisis. investors remain cautious because of u.s. presidential elections and the threat of an interest rate hike. economy may be weathering brexit better than

expected, but still its weakest performance in the year. rose 0.7 percent last quarter, but economists are predicting a 0.3% gain in the since the decision to leave the eu. investors in tune with their heartbeat make more money, at least that's what one new a scientist and former wall street trader says. neuroscientist and former wall street trader says. we ask them how many decisions are influenced by our own biology. we are biological creatures. it is inconceivable we can make it any other way. research isdoing in look at the effect of the state impactsody and how it our performance and training.

-- in trading. how much sleep you got the germans how focused you can be the next day. gotow much sleep you determines how focused you can be the next day. could the superstition or gut instinct? things thate first happens in your brain and body when you first receive a piece of information is your brain prepares her body. one of the first signals is changes in your body, so there is a part of your brain doing that that is a pretty good risk manager. when there is something wrong in your portfolio, your body is being prepared for danger, so that is the nature of gut feelings. it is kind of the way we are

built. >> could it be a headache or a -- system,cardiovascular your lungs, your heart, your muscles, your immune system, and it's also possible that each person varies in which of those systems they are aware of. they arele are aware breeding faster, others feel it in their back. i am personally a stomach person. something's wrong on wall street, i always feel it in my stomach. >> there is a test called heartbeat sensitivity test? what does it convey? >> physiologist and psychologists have been looking for tests for houses and people are too signals coming from their bodies. there's a number of different

ways they can measure that, but the one that has got the most research is a test called heartbeat awareness. that is your ability to sense how many times your heart is beating within a fixed time. ofthere is also an element the longer you have been at your job, the better you are at it. if you looked at all the factors that go into a successful career, you would have a list of a couple of dozen factors. experience on its own being one of those. we have been looking at a couple that have not been looked at before, and that is in this latest study we just published, and that was our ability to sense that feelings or changes in our bodies. >> it is gender specific though, right? you are talking more about men than women. >> in terms of the ability to

generate and cents got feelings, there is no difference between men and women. >> how about the element of fitness. >> we found that the ability to sense these got feelings baseased the lower your heart rate is. the leaner you are, the more these tissues are communicating these vibrations in the body to the brain. coming up on daybreak asia after your long pursuit of australia's biggest producer, bins could fall at the final hurdle. we will break down the rival offer next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ramy: you are watching "daybreak asia". yvonne: time for a quick look at what is coming up on bloomberg. looking at will be this sixth party plenum taking place to get an idea of who will be on the standing committee. citibank is joining us to go through that.

also having a look at risk in the market. that's in about 12 minutes or there about. that risk suggesting is coming off the table, if you will, across the asia-pacific pacific, then what janet yellen has to say for herself this week. morgan stanley will be with me and about 45 minutes. also, an aging population and how that plays through to all things global. back to you guys. ramy: thank you very much. a battle down under, australian cattle raisers have made a rival kidman and company.

paul allen joins us from sydney with the details. what do we know about the bid here? paul: this is a group that goes by that name bbho, an acronym of the sir names of the people putting this ford. -- surnames of the people putting this forward. that that will be launched on tuesday. they all run many thousands of cattle across millions of hectares. property itself is more than 100,000 square kilometers. with al came together chat over the fence one day.

they decided to put this proposal forward and see if they can buy the s. kidman properties. a big setback for june reinhardt. where does that leave her bed? it is a little less that $277 million. the bins are about the same once you take into fees and the removal of a couple of properties. what will prove key is the foreign investment aspect of it. inehart has a chinese business offer. the new bid is all i can australian, so it does not have to clear that hurdle. previous bids have been unsuccessful because one

property was close to a weapons testing range, so some sensitivity there. yvonne: paul allen from sydney, thanks. it from us, but plenty more still to come as "bloomberg markets: asia" is up next. we are counting down to several more market opens. the u.s.-japanese yen cross, starting to strengthen after the trade surplus we saw in the past hour. to talkall that m&a about is well with china oceanwide buying genworth. this is bloomberg. ♪

:00 a.m. inis not hong kong, 9:00 p.m. in new york. i am rishaad salamat. this is "bloomberg markets: asia". ♪ rishaad: the next generation jockeys for position as china's elite map the road ahead, promising discipline and a crackdown on corruption. stronger yen, weaker glode