mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. and "with all due respect october, you better hold on to chicken treat." treat.rick and ♪ john: happy halloweener, sports fans. hillary clinton hits a sour patch, donald trump flickers, and the fbi throws out a fireball. agents in aederal whatchamacallit. fbi agents now have a warrant

to agents in a whatchamacallit. fbi investigate carlos danger, the former husband of hillary clinton's top aide. since james comey informed the news about the emails, we have learned a lot about intra-government feuds, but virtually nothing about what is contained in the e-mails. the election is one weekend one day away. clinton was on the campaign trail at kent state university, trying to keep this story from spinning out of control. >> i am sure a lot of you may be asking what this new e-mail they is about and why in world the fbi would decide to jump into an election with no evidence of any wrongdoing with just days to go. that's a good question. first of all, for those of you who are concerned about my using personal e-mail, i understand, and as i have said, i am not making excuses.

i said it was a mistake and i regret it, and now they probably want to look at emails of one of my staffers, and by all means they should. i'm sure they will reach the same conclusion they did when they looked at my e-mails for the last year. there is no case here. [cheers and applause] john: just before clinton took the stage, donald trump held his own rally in grand rapids, michigan, where he kept pressure on his political opponent. >> hillary is the one who broke the law over and over and over again. we can be sure that what's in those e-mails is absolutely devastating, and i think we will find out, by the way, for the first time. thank you, human. . good job, huma. thank you, anthony weiner. john: so, what did the voters think about all this? well, a new nbc/surveymonkey

poll has clinton still leading by six points among likely voters, 47% to 41%. that margin is unchanged from last week, and there was no sign clinton lost any support in the days following the letter to congress and the explosion that followed on friday afternoon. mark, from what we know at this moment, how much is all of this effecting the presidential race? mark: two place to talk about it. theerms of the dialogue, dialogue over the last 48 hours is about hillary clinton, the fbi investigation, the clinton campaign's handling of it, the rallying the bases. but clearly this is not what they would like to be talking about. in terms of the actual impact on donald trump's chances of winning, we don't know. the public data is pretty slim.

the private data, i have heard, on both sides suggests perhaps trump has gained a bit of an edge, but this has not changed the race right now. but is an evolving story. i find it troubling, and i have to agree with everything you said. but i agree with that. it's about the dialogue in the dynamic, the electoral dynamic. there is no doubt that will be have seen over the course of this campaign, whoever is the focus, whoever is at the center of the discussion, loses altitude in this race. when we are talking about donald trump, it is bad for donald trump. when we are talking about hillary killington, it is bad for hillary clinton. they are both not very well-liked, so hillary clinton wanted to spend the last eight or nine days talking about donald trump, and she is not right now. i agree about that. and also i think the data is very sparse and scarce. we will know more in the next 48 hours.

but if this surveymonkey/nbc news poll is indicative, the dynamic has not been changed at all. yeah. kellyanne conway and other republicans claim trump was already moving ahead in battleground states before this happened. yeah. kellyanne conway and other just as donald trump wanted to be dealing with a few weeks ago, the accusations of his treatment of women. the last thing in the world hillary clinton would want to deal with is a combination about wikileaks, stories about investigations of the foundation that were squashed allegedly, and any questions related to e-mails. it's a testament to the clinton campaign and her standing that this has not caused the bottom to drop out, but it is also a testament to the fact that we are a divided country. a lot of the impact has been to give hillary clinton a rallying cry. john: here are two things to

draw the parallel. thedifference between access hollywood tape in the accusations of sexual predation -- that was new information, and it was also information that went directly to donald trump's behavior. in clinton's case, this is reinforcing an old storyline, linkedfar it has not directly to anything she did that is new. it doesn't surprise me -- it might not be totally shocking, and that seems to be the difference between these october surprises. mark: from the time the story broke, hillary clinton and her allies have been trying to make the story all about james comey and his decision to send a cryptic letter to congress at the end of last week. today, the press secretary josh earnest refused to defend or criticize comey. other democrats, including

elijah cummings of maryland, have marched to her defense. where we have a situation he has come out with this vague letter. we don't know how many letters are and plug it if, we don't know much at all. i think he has now placed her in a situation where she has just think he made a mistake, and i think he needs to correct that. one of the things he can do is let us know -- he put out this information with regard to secretary clinton. he also has questions about mr. trump, his associates, the russians, and any coordination and cooperation with regard to our election. pushback effort has also included the release of a bipartisan letter, signed by more that 100 former federal

prosecutors and justice department officials, expressing concern about comey's actions. and harry reid policed is a letter, saying that he might have violated the hatch act, a federal law that bars officials from using their authority to influence elections. twodonald trump steve has distinct talking points, that regardless of the decision this is a scandal of clinton's probl ems, and that the media is focusing on the wrong thing. >> everybody is rushing to her defense. there should be serious questions -- the only reason we are here is they violated rules and regulations from the get-go. if hillary clinton and her aides have used a state department e-mail and haven't tried to lied, we, hadln't wouldn't be here.

this is a scandal of their own choosing. they chose to evad government rules and regulation, to lie, and this is where they are.they have no one to blame but themselves . mark: john, which side is so far handling this chaos better? john: it's easier for the trump campaign. they are doing a fine job of driving the points they want to drive. it so much harder situation to be, strategically, tactically, to be in the clinton camp. given the difficulty they have faced, purely politically, they've done a pretty good job going on offense, getting a sen se of bipartisan condemnation for doing something that seems to have violated the justice department's own customs, and the way it is supposed operate. as push back goes, they are doing it pretty effectively.

mark: the clinton campaign could easily have tried to ignore this. hillary clinton had a press conference, talked about it very aggressively, whipping up the crowd. i agree. both sides have played their hands pretty well in pretty aggressively and without many errors. i will say, comey -- what comey did, receiving widespread bipartisan condemnation -- if you look around the country, the clinton campaign decided friday, we are going to take the risk, take on the fbi director, make this about him. a lot of the news coverage has been about him. i understand why republicans are hot on this story, but we don't know much about how incriminating this might be. i'm ms. republicans haven't jumped more on the wall street journal story, suggesting some people in the justice department were not keen on investigating. the last thing i will say is that this aggressiveness by the

clinton folks -- it's reminiscent of the way bill clinton would have fought back, and i think that's a pretty positive -- it's clintonesque. next, we will take a look at what donald trump's schedule says about his potential path, hopeful path, to the white house. we will be right back. ♪

mark: we talk a lot about how donald trump's path to the white house is narrow but there are two scenarios they get discussed.

we called the first scenario the new hampshire scenario. trump would have to win the big three states, plus iowa and nevada. and if he wins all those, the granite state would put him over the top, assuming he wins that one congressional district in maine. the big five. the other path is more simple. the big three states, then pennsylvania. a recent poll had clinton up by 8%, and that is not the only blue state currently on trump's schedule. yesterday he campaigned in colorado and new mexico. today he is in michigan. tomorrow he is coming to wisconsin. one problem with teasing out his strategy is there is not a lot of recent polling data in the states to get a sense of what he's up to. the last survey out of new

mexico is from september. john, is trump going to these blue places because he thinks they are in play, or is he going there because new hampshire and pennsylvania don't seem very likely, and he needs to find at least a plausible combination? john: well, from inside the trunk campaign, there is a lot of insistence that he is campaigning in a rational way, which is to say, going to places that are a reach, are within reach. my gut says, on the basis of what we know, is that they have come to a conclusion that new hampshire and pennsylvania are out of reach and they have to find some other way, so they might as well go to the likeliest path to get in there. mark: he is going to have to win and of five at a minimum, north carolina is the toughest. i don't think they have given up on new hampshire, florida,

nevada, ohio, iowa. i think what they are trying to do is see if they can find a way to put them in a position where things break badly, and they have a backup. north carolina could be the key, and it is clear the clinton campaign sees it that way. you look at the recent resources -- surrogates galore, both obamas, hillary clinton, chelsea clinton. you see october events that have or will happen, and the tv spending there has been pretty big as well. as trump people look around they say, could it be possible they lose north carolina, but somehow win michigan, wisconsin? it doesn't seem likely, but if you look at private data on both sides, it is not a crazy play if you can't win north carolina. john: the last thing you said is

the closest thing to being on the money. we have said all along that the three hes -- there are needs ohio. , north carolina, and florida. he could win ohio and florida is a tossup. north carolina is the place where demographic change has pushed that state more to hillary clinton. she has had the upper hand for a while. if trump can't win north carolina, and that realization is donning, they have to go someplace else. that's a bunch of electoral votes. you have to figure out something else, right? new mexico seems like a long shot to me, given its past voting behavior, but they have to go somewhere. they have to bring in some trove of electoral votes, and they seem to be on the hunt for that . mark: again, if they can somehow win florida, ohio, nevada, and

iowa, then if they don't win north carolina -- even if they do -- they need a big replacement and new mexico is not enough. and again, we will talk more about this with donald trump's communication director later. but for now, we will take a break. we will be right back with more on the clinton/fbi story and the presidential race, right after this. ♪

mark: we are joined by two top-notch political strategists.

one worked as barack obama's director of rapid response. we also have a republican strategist and crisis communication consultant. great to see you. i'll start with you, because the star spotlight is on the clinton campaign. had you think they have been handling the fallout? >> i heard you and mark talking about it earlier, and i disagree a little bit with you on this. i think they should have outsourced some of the direct criticism of comey to people like eric holder, and not made this into a competition between hillary clinton versus comey. for her to win, it needs to be hillary clinton versus donald trump. looking at the headlines, it's all about her first is comey. stuff is smart but i don't think that picking a war with the fbi is smart especially

when you see stories like on "the wall street journal" yesterday. john: although you are a republican, i will ask you the same question. this is obviously a crisis -- how do you think they have handled things? >> as well as can be expected. i may to for a little bit, because at least on the e-mails, it's a clinton/comey in one headline. she is trying to defuse the attack. but she was out there today saying, this is what i did on my e-mails, and she was really direct, much more so than i had ever seen her talk about the e-mails and her staff. in that regard, to get the best she can, but she is still playing a lot of defense. within both campaigns as they look to see if it's impacting the race, besides pulling data, is there any way one can tell if it's having an impact? >> well, polling data is what's going to be key. what you have to start looking at is where the independents will break. when you have two such

unfavorable candidates, they're fighting to be the least worst. when you look at the polls you get a sense of it. but if you have to go on the map alone, this is breaking toward hillary clinton. all she has to do is prevent donald trump for rom winning norcal on our florida -- he has to win them all. >> and it is really hard to see this changing the ultimate outcome of the election. i don't think that overnight donald trump going to win because of the e-mails. you have to be living under a rock to not know about the e-mails, and that is why i don't think it will move voters. >> but there is one other thing we have to taken, and that is donald trump. can he stay on this message for eight days? i am impressed he did it for eight hours. he has been really good this weekend.

but can he go on for the rest of his campaign and have it not be about him? that has always been his greatest challenge. that's a we will see play out. john: this story wiped out the talk about the affordable care act, about bill clinton, the trump campaign is trying to revive it tomorrow both in pennsylvania -- are those messages bundled up? is it smart for the trump campaign to do or should they pick one or two? >> e-mail story runs itself, and talking about the affordable care act with those increases arriving in the mail as we speak, it's a great talking point. that brings republicans back home. it gets the participation rate, instead of around 82% for trump, probably closer to 80% or 90%, and that is exactly what he needs to hold onto. the clinton, inc. story is great, and it hurts the

clintons. it is harder to explain. the when you get that notice in the mail that your rates are going up, that's easy. >> and mark, another knockout all these accusations about donald trump sexually the trial thatn, came out last week was buried by this announcement. john: an interesting question right now, to me, is whether comey will have to respond. let me know what you think about that, and do you think the clinton campaign would rather have him go forward or rather have him stay hidden away and continue to be on him? >> i think he has to come forward, given all the criticism he is facing from all sides, and given how close we are to the election. i actually do believe that the clinton campaign is being honest

when they say they wanted to come forward with all the information. there is no indication that there is anything new, any bombshell. it would benefit them, i think, for them to be more transparent. >> except there is nothing for him to say right now. we know they have to go through all those e-mails. what can he possibly come forward and say, unless he can say, we reviewed the documents and there is nothing there? that is not going to happen in five business days. i disagree. they have limitless resources. >> it took hillary clinton how many weeks -- and they were her e-mails. i don't see how he is going to come forward without making a bigger mess. i think this is more of a reflection of the crisis in the fbi there anything else. his hand was forced. >> if he doesn't come forward now, republicans can run with this campaign is innuendo, and that is the responsible. he created this environment --

>> excuse me, hillary clinton created this by having a private server. this is not a hillary clinton -- >> that is a fair point. john: i'm happy you guys came to agreement. i like to have an atmosphere of kumbaya. thank you. we will be right back with a guy who has been on this story from the very start. people you joins us after these words from our sponsors. ♪

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lot of the things they said about director comey and donald trump and the whole situation they find themselves in. there was no news. our next guest has been all over the story. joining us now is pete williams. sayingyou have been some of these unusual things in this matter, i heard you say being asked to give a play-by-play of in real-time of the investigation. where do you stand in your understanding how quickly will they say anything publicly about this matter? pete: i think they don't know the answer to that question because they don't know all that is on this hard drive. what they have done since they got the search warrant sunday night allowing the team that did the clinton e-mail investigation into look into the e-mails on anthony weiner's computer, they

are now doing that. they will make a copy on the hard drive. now, they are analyzing it and have a big universe of data they will trim down. they start with all of her e-mails which is easy to do. ates, they will narrow it down to when she was secretary of state. -dupingll apply a de program to eliminate any e-mails that was already seen by the team, the thousands of e-mails the fbi acquired in the investigation. whatever is left, they will look at individually. toss out any that are strictly social and then any that are discusses government business they will assess if it is classified or not. if it turns out there are not any left, they can say, ok, we have looked and there is nothing

here and then they will make a public statement. it will take time to run down the province of any new e-mails. there was some initial optimism that they could say something in the next couple of days. we will have to wait and see. mark: it was reported the attorney general and the justice department asked director call me not to send that letter to capitol hill. what do you know about the relationship between the attorney general and the fbi director? pete: it is a bit testy now, you could say. i don't know you could say they asked him not to send the letter. all the communication went back and forth from the fbi to the justice department through the deputy attorney general. that is the normal way the fbi communicates with the doj. it is safe to say the justice department urged him not to and reminded them of the two

potential issues -- publicity and also discussing investigations in progress. what the fbi says they are well aware of both of those policies, but they thought in this case given all that comey has said, it was better to say something now rather than have it come out later or leak out. john: i think it is fair to say james comey has, under extreme condemnation. we have stories first reported he argued that he was against putting his name that russia was behind the hack that led to the wikileaks exposure. his argument was we didn't want to be close to this because it is close to election day. talk about that report and how

much of a problem it poses for him. pete: i cannot talk about that report because that is not information i developed. i don't know anything about it. cnthe reporter is a great guy ad i respect him. i don't know enough about it to say anything. john: do you think -- there was quite a lot of questions raised about whether comey would feel compelled to defend his letter on friday. he has not come forward so far. is there any pressure on him? will thhe yield? pete: he will not yield. he has no plan to revise or extend his remarks. many members of congress have said tell us a little more about what was behind that letter. there is no plan to do that now. the only way we will hear from if before the election is

they can say something about their analysis of the e-mails if it goes quickly. how quicksoon to say it will be until we get further into the process. barely 24 hours now since this started. mark: i want to ask you about the wall street journal report -- i know you may say you don't know anything about this -- suggesting disagreement between the fbi and justice department whether it has investigated the clinton foundation. wins they clinton election, that seems to be a blockbuster issue. there is real tension. what do you know? pete: we have been aware of this for some time. not in the detail of the story in the wall street journal, but part of this is the understandable, typical headquarters field office mentality. we see these often in criminal cases. the people at headquarters are

micromanaging people on the field. if we can get the shackles off, we can get to it. people at headquarters are saying the opposite. we have heard the same criticism from a lot of people in the fbi about how the investigation of the clinton e-mails was done. they also felt micromanaged. they felt every step they took cap to be cleared. i think that is some of what -- you talk aboutic occurs all the time but the concern that some have is the motives had to do with politics. that loretta lynch or anyone else in the justice department tried to protect the democrat. is there any indication that claim is being made by anyone in the fbi? pete: it is being made by some

people in the fbi, some street agents that are upset about how this is being run. a lot of people outside the fbi are upset about it. i don't believe they think it is politics. mark: thank you very much, p williams. ete williams. we will talk to someone from the trump campaign about what this means. communications director jason miller right after this. ♪

mark: joining us now is jason miller, communications advisor to donald trump's presidential campaign. he is in golf antham city.

i know you will say your supporters are energized, but you have any empirical data that you are actually seeing this impact the numbers in battleground states or too soon? jason: the numbers started moving this past week with the news of the obamacare premium increases. beyond that, the news about the e-mails and this memo about how they will use the clinton foundation as a for-profit operation. and, of course, the big bombshell on friday with the news about anthony weiner's laptop and the 650,000 e-mails. we have seen the numbers continually moving in our direction. mr. trump was in new mexico yesterday. he is in michigan today. he will be in wisconsin tomorrow. these are states that are blue to purple. we are seeing the numbers closing really tight.

ion florida, north carolina, ohio, mr. trump is looking very well. mark: i know you and others in the campaign are saying the numbers are moving because of the developments, but saturday, sunday into today, you saw a change in the data? jason: the numbers i have seen since the announcement shows positive movement in our direction. i don't know how much of that is attributable of republicans coalescing around donald trump. one thing that i think you would both agree on is it brings everything back out. it brings back the clinton drama. the questions about what they are doing about the server. it reminds people why they are frustrated with hillary clinton and the insider establishment. john: if we went back to last friday, let's dial back the

clock so the comey has not come out with -- letter has not come out yet. on friday, you learn that the director at of the fbi sent a letter to congress that the fbi has opened an an investigation between puting russian -- putin, russian hackers and the trump campaign. your reactiould have been what? jason: that is purely hypothetical. john: the issue has been raised many times in the course of the campaign. this hypothetical was raised in the new york times over the weekend. jason: there is zero basis the truth. let's talk about why we are here. john: i appreciate that, but it is not a crazy hypothetical. if it happened, your reaction would be it was proper for the

fbi director to raise any investigation -- forget about russian hackers. memo to congress reviewing that on friday, you would have thought that was fine 11 days before the election or complaint? ed? jason: we wish the fbi did their job properly earlier in the summer. i don't think there is any way to look at it and not say the whole outside server that was set up, the reasons, the fact we had confidential information being sent out. forwardthey had pushed and done the right thing earlier rather than now. you guys and pete williams an everyone else. the important thing is clearly they found something. 650,000 e-mails they have to go through. how many thousands are between

hillary clinton and huma abedin? john: you didn't answer my question remotely. jason: i just think it is a nonsensical question that does not apply to our campaign. john: ok. mark: let's talk about the electoral college. rank the states in order that you are feeling good about from best to worst and do not say they are all equal. florida, ohio, north carolina. jason: that is a tough one. some of them are on percentages and some of them are on actual terms. florida, we have had two polls that shows mr. trump is leading by four points. that is great. as far as the absentee ballots and early voting, the republican returns are 7% higher than four years ago.

democrat returns are 4% lower. republicans usually start out with a deficit. we are about 100,000 votes closer to the democrat then mitt romney was or years ago. when you look at north carolina, republican return is 35,000 higher. the net being about 42,000 votes closer. in ohio, it is a little more tricky to count. not quite the same numbers but things look very good there. mark: is that the order you are feeling good about? best about north carolina? jason: i love all three states and i think mr. trump will win all three. were discussing very blue states. new mexico and now up in wisconsin. what is the evidence that you

are operating on that you think those states are close to winnable? jason: when i woke up last friday, after not much sleep which is usually the case, we take a look at the tracking data. this is before we got the news from director comey which came out at about 1:00 on friday. we started at a dead heat in new mexico and michigan. we had certain things we talked about but we decided we had to get new mexico on the books. michigan, we were already talking about. he just finished up in warren. he will be in pennsylvania and wisconsin tomorrow. these are races -- part of the thing that gives us so much hope is hillary clinton is around 1%, 42%. -- 41%, 42%.

what we're seeing in the makeup of the undecideds, that they break overwhelmingly republican. upwards of a 20 point advantage on the generic ballot as far as undecided. we have a very good feeling that folks will break our way. we have seen in colorado, we have seen not just internal numbers in dead heat. there was a survey that came out today that showed it is in a dead heat. this is the first cycle that it is a full on vote by mail in colorado. some of the dynamics are different than what we have seen in the past. these are great opportunities. secretary clinton has base issues. she is not getting the african-american support level that president obama did in michigan. she is not getting those millennial supporters the same way president obama did. there are other things you would

both appreciate. the map looks a lot different than it did in 2004, 2008 and 2012. we will wake up on november 9 and we will see some blue states that donald trump will win and people will say how did he win these? romney had no chance, bush had no chance. the way trump is turning different people out, we're seeing something different in the modeling. you saw where secretary clinton went up on tv in wisconsin on friday. the are not doing that unless they are worried about losing the state. john: our colleagues wrote a piece on bloomberg businessweek about the data operations of your campaign. a senior trump official that three different vote suppression strategies that the campaign was pursuing. it went into some detail. for a lot of people, that is a disturbing prospect.

what do you have to say about that? jason: either the person, whoever this person not named in the story was either misspoke or they fundamentally have no clue what mr. trump is doing with the campaign. we are eight days out. he spoke at length in michigan about his plan for renewing our urban center and helping the black community in a way the democrats have not cycle after cycle. mr. trump is running to be president for all americans. he is making this a big cornerstone for his campaign. it is pretty remarkable to see a republican working hard to bring in different groups. any of that type of language -- someone was just way off with their description about what is going on. you always have aspects of contrast messaging. you say this is why hillary

clinton has failed the community and this is how donald trump has brought different prospects. any of his other language, i have no idea about that. mark: let me ask you the mega question as we close. there is some polling nationally and in key states, the abc poll that shows the race tied. many more polls shows hillary clinton with a lead. what would explain donald trump winning this race in conflict with, at this point, most of the public polling? jason: i will disagree with you. there are certainly polls that shows donald trump with the lead. the los angeles times shows it literally in a dead heat with overnight upi polling. .7% differential between the two. others would have it at a one

point race. mark: there is no question there are some polls that show would close but i believe if you look at the polls that you and i have talked about over the years that are credible, more of them have them her having a lead. do you think you will close the gap before election day? what is the explanation you would say to voters that are looking at the polling? jason: if you live by the poll of polls, then you will die by it. the problem is a lot of those polls are outdated. post pollshinginton changed within one week. the fact is there was a massive shift this past week. we have seen it tightening up. more importantly, as we see multiple polls in florida that

shows we are leading. internal numbers show us we are leading in north carolina. polls shows us we are leading in iowa. here is a state that has been blue for a wild and mr. trump will win iowa. at this point you have to look at the electoral map and how we can get to 270. not only are there a couple of pathways that are there and all moments of his coming up trump right now. mark: the jason miller speaking up momentum and comey and everything else. john and i will be back in a minute. if you are watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on 99.1 fm in the nation's capital. we will be right back. ♪

john: in case you were

wondering, we asked the clinton campaign to send a staff member to the program today but they were unable to give us anyone. hopefully, we get one tomorrow. we will be right back. ♪

john: make sure to check out bloombergpolitics.com. coming up on bloomberg technology, a founder. for mark and i and everyone here, we say to you sayonara. ♪

mark: you are watching bloomberg technology. let's check on first word news. hillary clinton challenging the fbi's new e-mail inquiry. clinton says she understands the

concerns people have overheard use of a personal e-mail server from which she again apologized. mrs. clinton: now, they apparently want to look at e-mails from one of my staffers and they should. i'm sure they will reach the same conclusion they did when they look at my e-mails in the last year. there is no case. mark: meantime, donald trump says hillary clinton is not a victim, the american people are the victims. in michigan, he praised james comey. mr. trump: i have to give the fbi credit. that was so bad that happened originally that it took guts for director comey to make the move he made in light of the kind of opposition he had with them trying to protect her from criminal prosecution. italian prime minister promises to find