mark: i'm mark halperin. john: and i'm john heilemann. and "with all due respect" to october, you better hold on to the sugar is been a whole lot than tree. ♪ john: happy halloweener, sports fans. in our pillowcase of candy hillary clinton hits a sour snickersdonald trump, and the fbi throws out a , fireball. but first, federal agents in a whatchamacallit. fbi agents now have a warrant to two searchers is 650,000 e-mails found on the computer of carlos danger, the former husband of hillary clinton's top aide.

since james comey informed the congress about this messages which he called pertinent, the agency's previous investigation, we have learned a lot about intra-government feuds, but virtually nothing about what is contained in the e-mails. the election is one weekend one day away. clinton was on the campaign trail at kent state university, trying to keep this story from spinning out of control. >> i am sure a lot of you may be asking what this new e-mail story is about and why in the world the fbi would decide to jump into an election with no evidence of any wrongdoing with just days to go. that's a good question. first of all, for those of you who are concerned about my using personal e-mail, i understand, and as i have said, i am not making excuses. i said it was a mistake and i

regret it and now they apparently want to look at emails of one of my staffers, and by all means they should. i am sure they will reach the same conclusion they did when they looked at my e-mails for the last year. there is no case here. [cheers and applause] john: just before clinton took the stage, donald trump held his own rally in grand rapids, michigan, where he kept pressure on his political opponent. >> hillary is the one who broke the law over and over and over again. we can be sure that what's in those e-mails is absolutely devastating, and i think we will find out, by the way, for the first time. thank you, huma. good job, huma. thank you, anthony weiner. john: so, what do the voters

think about all this? well, a new nbc news/surveymonkey poll has clinton still leading by six points among likely voters, 47% to 41%. that margin is unchanged from last week, and there was no sign clinton lost any support in the days following the letter to congress and the explosion that followed on friday afternoon. mark, from what we know at this moment, how much is all of this effecting the presidential race? mark: there are two ways to talk about it. in terms of the dialogue, the dialogue over the last 48 hours is about hillary clinton, the fbi investigation, the clinton campaign's handling of it, the rallying the bases. but clearly this is not what they would like to be talking about. in terms of the actual impact on donald trump's chances of winning, we don't know. this is not caused clinton to collapse. the public data is pretty slim.

the private data, i have heard, on both sides suggests perhaps trump has gained a bit of an edge, but this has not changed the race right now. but is an evolving story. john: i find it troubling, and i have to agree with everything you said. i am kidding. but i agree with that. this is about the dialogue and the electoral dynamic. there is no doubt that will be have seen over the course of this campaign, whoever is the focus, whoever is at the center of the discussion, loses altitude when we are talking in this race. when we are talking about donald trump, it is bad for donald trump. when we are talking about hillary clinton, it is bad for hillary clinton. they are both not very well-liked, so hillary clinton wanted to spend the last eight or nine days talking about donald trump, and she is not right now. she is talking about other things i agree about that. and also i think the data is very sparse and scarce. we will know more in the next 48 hours. but if this surveymonkey/nbc

news poll is indicative, the dynamic has not been changed at all. mark: yeah. the republicans claim both kellyanne conway and other republicans claim trump was already moving ahead in battleground states before this happened. just as donald trump wanted to be dealing with a few weeks ago, the accusations of his treatment of women. the last thing in the world hillary clinton would want to deal with is a combination about wikileaks, stories about investigations of the foundation that were squashed allegedly, and any questions related to e-mails. it is testament to the clinton campaign and her standing that this has not caused the bottom to drop out, but it is also a testament to the fact that we are a divided country. as i said, a lot of the impact has been to give hillary clinton a rallying cry. john: here are two things to

draw the parallel. the difference between the access hollywood tape in the accusations of sexual predation -- that was new information, and it was also information that went directly to donald trump's behavior. in clinton's case, this is reinforcing an old storyline, and so far it has not linked directly to anything she did that is new. it doesn't surprise me -- it might not be totally shocking, that is the difference between these two october surprises. mark: from the time the story broke, hillary clinton and her allies have been trying to make the story all about james comey and the fbi director's decision to send a cryptic letter to congress at the end of last week. today, the press secretary josh earnest refused to defend or criticize comey. other democrats, including

elijah cummings of maryland, have rushed to clinton's defense. >> now we have a situation where he has come out with this vague letter. we do not know how many of these leader -- e-mails. we do not know much at all. this letter has been put out there and i think he has now placed her in a situation where being basically questioned and asked to defend something she does not know what she is defending. i just think he made a mistake and i think he needs to try to correct that. one of the things he can do is let us know, he has put out this information with regard to secretary clinton. he also has questions about mr. trump, his associates, the russians, and any coordination and cooperation with regard to our election. mark: her push back effort has also included the release of a bipartisan letter, signed by more that 100 former federal prosecutors and justice department officials, expressing

concern about comey's actions. and the top democrat harry reid releases on letter that said, the fbi director might have violated the hatch act a federal , law that bars officials from using their authority to influence elections. donald trump's team has two distinct talking points, that regardless of the decision this is a scandal of clinton's own making and that the media is focusing on the wrong thing. this is mind blowing that everybody is rushing to her defense. there should be serious questions. the only reason we are here as they violated rules and regulations from the get-go. if hillary clinton and her aides have used a state department e-mail and haven't tried to leaching away and had an self-selected the e-mails and lied over and over again, we would not be here.

this is a scandal of their own choosing. to evade government rules and regulations, to lie, lie, lie and this is where we are. they have no one to blame but themselves. mark: john, which side is so far handling this chaos better? john: it's easier for the trump campaign. they are doing a fine job of driving the points they want to drive. it so much harder situation to be, strategically, tactically, to be in the clinton camp. i think given the difficulty they have faced, purely politically, they've done a pretty good job going on offense, getting a sense of bipartisan condemnation for doing something that seems to have violated the justice department's own customs, and the way it is supposed operate. i think they have done, as pushback goes, they are doing a pretty effectively and

efficiently. mark: the clinton campaign could easily have tried to ignore this. pretended did not exist. hillary clinton had a press conference, talked about it very aggressively, whipping up the crowd. i agree with what you said. both sides have played their hands pretty well in pretty aggressively and without many errors. i will say, because we have not isdemned, yet, what he did receiving widespread artisan -- bipartisan condemnation. if you look around the country, the clinton campaign decided friday, we are going to take the risk, take on the fbi director, make this about him. a lot of the news coverage has been about him. i understand why republicans are hot on this story, but we don't know much about how incriminating this might be. i am amazed republicans have not jumped more on the wall street journal story suggesting some people in the justice department were not keen on investigating. the last thing i will say is that this aggressiveness by the

clinton folks -- it's reminiscent of the way bill clinton would have fought back, and i think that's a pretty positive praise you can give someone. clintonesque. it is john: up next, we will take a look at what donald trump's schedule says about his potential path, hopeful path, to the white house. we will be right back. ♪

♪ wolf howling] mark: we talk a lot about how donald trump's path to the white house is narrow but there are two scenarios that get the most discussion.

we call the first scenario the new hampshire scenario. trump would have to win the big three states, plus iowa and nevada. and if he wins all those, the granite state would put him over the top, assuming he wins that one congressional district in maine. that gets into the the big five. 270. the other path is more simple. the big three states, then pennsylvania. he and mike pence are visiting there tomorrow. a recent poll had clinton up by 8%, and that is not the only blue state currently on trump's schedule. yesterday he campaigned in colorado and new mexico. today he is in michigan. tomorrow he is coming to wisconsin. one problem with teasing out his strategy is there is not a lot of recent polling data in the states to get a sense of what he's up to. for instance, the last survey of new mexico was from john, is september.

trump going to these blue places because he thinks they are in play, or is he going there because new hampshire and pennsylvania don't seem very likely, and he needs to find at least a plausible combination? john: well, from inside the trump campaign, there is a lot of insistence that he is campaigning in a rational way, which is to say, going to places that although they are a breach are within reach. my gut says, on the basis of what we know, is that they have come to a conclusion that new hampshire and pennsylvania are out of reach and they have to find some other way, so they might as well go to the likeliest path to get in there. -- to get him then. mark: he is going to have to win four of five at a minimum, and north carolina is the toughest. i don't think they have given up on new hampshire, florida, nevada, ohio, iowa.

i think what they are trying to do is see if they can find a way to put them in a position that things break badly in one place and they have a little bit of a backup. north carolina could be the key, and it is clear the clinton campaign sees it that way. you look at the recent resources -- surrogates galore, both obama's, hillary clinton president clinton, chelsea clinton, tim kaine repeatedly. you see october events that have have or will happen and the tv , spending there has been pretty big as well. as trump people look around they say, could it be possible they lose north carolina, but somehow win michigan, wisconsin? it doesn't seem likely, but if you look at private data on both sides, it is not a crazy play if you can't win north carolina. you cannot just give up. john: the last thing you said is the closest thing to being on the money. we have said all along that the

big he needs ohio, north three. carolina, and florida. he could win ohio, and florida is a tossup. everyone agrees. he is may be ahead in north ohio and has been for a while. north carolina is the place where demographic change has pushed that state more to hillary clinton. she has had the upper hand for a while. if trump can't win north carolina, and that realization is donning, they have to go someplace else. that is a bunch of electoral votes. you have to figure out something else, right? new mexico seems like a long shot to me, given its past voting behavior, but they have to go somewhere. they have to bring in some trove of electoral votes, and they seem to be on the hunt for that. more than playing in places easily within his grasp. mark: again, if they can somehow win florida, ohio, nevada, and

iowa, then if they don't win north carolina -- even if they do -- they need a big problem even if they do win. they need a big replacement. new mexico is not enough. that is why they are doing it. again, we will talk more about this with donald trump's communication director later. but for now, we will take a break. we will be right back with more on the clinton/fbi story and the presidential race, right after this. ♪

♪ john: we are joined by two top-notch political strategists.

one worked as barack obama's director of rapid response. we also have a republican strategist and crisis communication consultant. ladies, great to see. i will start with you just because the spotlight is on the clinton campaign. how do you think they have been handling the fallout? >> i heard you and mark talking about it earlier, and i disagree a little bit with you on this. i think they should have outsourced some of the direct criticism of comey to people like eric holder, and not made this into a competition between hillary clinton versus comey. for her to win, it needs to be hillary clinton versus donald trump. if you look at the headlines coming out of her rally, it is all about her and comey. otherwise there calls for transparency, all of that is smart but i do not think picking up more with the fbi is smart, especially when you see stories

like the wall street journal leaking stuff like crazy. mark: although you are a republican, i will ask you the same question. this is a moment of crisis for the clinton campaign. how do you think they have handled things since friday? >> as well as can be expected. i may to for a little bit, because at least on the e-mails, it's a clinton/comey in one headline. she is trying to defuse the attack. but she was out there today saying, this is what i did on my e-mails, and she was really direct, much more so than i had ever seen her talk about the e-mails and her staff. in that regard, to get the best -- she did the best she can but she is still playing a lot of defense. mark: within both campaigns as they look to see if it's impacting the race, besides polling data, is there anyway you can tell if this is having an impact on voters? >> well, polling data is what's going to be key. what you have to start looking at is where the independents will break. when you have two such

unfavorable candidates, they're fighting to be the least worst. it is hard to tell. when you look at the polls you get a sense of it. but if you have to go on the map alone, this is breaking toward hillary clinton. all she has to do is prevent donald trump from winning north carolina or florida -- he has to win them all. that is a big challenge. >> and it is really hard to see this changing the ultimate outcome of the election. i don't think that overnight donald trump is going to win because of the e-mails. you have to be living under a rock to not know about the e-mails, and that is why i don't think it will move voters. >> but there is one other thing we have to take into consideration can he stay on and that is donald trump. can he stay on this message for eight days? i am impressed he did it for eight hours. he has been really good this weekend. but can he go on for the rest of

his campaign and have it not be about him? that has always been his greatest challenge. that's what we will see play out. mark: this story wiped out the talk about the affordable care act, about bill clinton, the trump campaign is trying to revive it tomorrow both in pennsylvania -- are those messages bundled up? is it smart for the trump campaign to do or should they pick one or two? >> it is absolutely. the e-mail story runs itself, and talking about the affordable care act with those increases arriving in the mail as we speak, it's a great talking point. dick bremer -- it brings republicans back home it gets . the participation rate, instead of around 82% for trump, probably closer to 85% or 90%, and that is exactly what he needs to hold onto. the clinton, inc. story is great, and it hurts the clintons. it is harder to explain.

the when you get that notice in the mail that your rates are going up on an average of 20 purse -- 25%, that is easy. >> and mark, another knockout headlines was all of the accusations about donald trump sexually assaulting women, the forward lastn came week and it became completely buried by this fbi announcement. john: an interesting question right now, to me, is whether comey will have to respond. is he going to do a press conference, come forward? do you think the clinton campaign would rather have him come forward and our rather have him stay hidden away and just continue to beat on him and you him just use them as a punching bag. >> i think he has to come forward, given all the criticism he is facing from all sides, and given how close we are to the election. i actually do believe that the clinton campaign is being honest when they say they wanted to

-- want him to come forward with all of the information. there is no indication that there is anything new, any bombshell. it would benefit them, i think, for them to be more transparent. >> except there is nothing for him to say right now. we know they have to go through all those e-mails. what can he possibly come forward and say, unless he can say, we reviewed the documents and there is nothing there? that is not going to happen in five business days. >> i disagree. it is the fbi. they have limitless resources. >> it took hillary clinton how many weeks, and they were her own e-mails, so i do not think him i do not see how he is going to come forward without making a bigger mess for himself. i think this is more of a reflection of the crisis in the fbi there anything else. his hand was forced. >> if he doesn't come forward now, republicans can run with this campaign of innuendo and that is very worse -- that is

very responsible. he created this. >> excuse me, hillary clinton created this by having a private server. this is not a hillary clinton -- i am a victim. >> that is a fair point. yes. she did show poor judgment. john: i'm happy you guys came to agreement. i like to have an atmosphere of togetherness and kumbaya. thank you. we will be right back with a guy who has been on this story from the very start. nbc's pete williams joins us after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ mark: late this afternoon, hillary clinton held a conference call with the media. her campaign manager repeated a

lot of the things they said about fbi director comey and donald trump and the whole situation they find themselves in. there was no news. our next guest has been all over the story. joining us now is nbc's pete williams. pete, i know you have been saying understandably that some of these unusual things in this matter. i heard you say one thing is that the fbi is being asked to give a play-by-play of in real-time of the investigation. next reporting. where do you stand in your understanding how quickly will they say anything publicly about this matter? pete: i think they don't know the answer to that question because they don't know all that is on this hard drive. what they have done since they got the search warrant sunday night allowing the team that did the clinton e-mail investigation to look into the home i have on her estranged husband's computer.

now they are doing that. first thing is to make a hard copy so you do not erase anything on the hard drive. they have a big universe of data they are going to trim down. they start with all of her e-mails which is easy to do. then using the dates, they will narrow it down to just those sent when clinton was secretary of state. once they have that, they will apply a de-duping program to eliminate any e-mails that was -- were already seen by the team, the thousands of e-mails the fbi acquired in the investigation. whatever is left, they will look at individually. toss out any that are strictly social, what time do what the car to pick you up and then any , that are left that discusses government business they will assess if it is classified information if it turns out or not. if it turns out there are not any left, they can say, ok, we have looked and there is nothing here and then they will make a public statement.

if it is going to take time to run down the province of any new e-mails, then that is going to take time. there was some initial optimism that they could say something in the next couple of days. we will have to wait and see. mark: it was reported the attorney general and the justice department asked director comey not to send that letter to capitol hill. what do you know about the relationship between the attorney general and the fbi director? pete: it is a bit testy now, you could say. i do not know what it they asked him not to send the letter. my understanding is all of the communication was back and forth from the fbi to the justice department through the deputy justice attorney general. that is the normal way the fbi communicates with the doj. it is safe to say the justice department urged him not to and reminded them of the two

potential policy issues, publicity and also discussing investigations in progress. what the fbi says they are well aware of both of those policies, but they thought in this case given all that comey has said, it was better to say something now rather than have it come out later or leak out. john: i think it is fair to say james comey has come under an enormous amount of condemnation. now we have stories first reported by cnbc that he argued against putting the fbi's name on the intelligence and defense statement from a few weeks ago that russia was behind the hacks that led to the wikileaks disclosure. how big of a problem is that for him? there seems to be some inconsistency, talk about that report and how much the problem

poses for him. is i cannot talk about the report because that is not information i develop. i do not know anything about it. the first reporter about it is a great guy but i do not know enough to say anything about it. john: do you think -- there was quite a lot of questions raised about whether comey would feel compelled to try to defend his letter on front. he has obviously not come forward so far. is there still pressure on him? will he yield? pete: he will not yield. my understanding is he has no plans to revise or extend his remarks. in other words, amplify the letter that he sent to congress on friday. many members have said, tell us a little more about what was behind the letter. there is no plan to do that now. the only way we will hear from him before the election is if they can say something about their analysis of the e-mails if it goes quickly.

i think it is too soon to say whether how quickly it will be until we get a little further into the process. barely 24 hours now since this started. mark: i want to ask you about the wall street journal report. you may say you do not know anything about this one as well, but suggesting a lot of disagreement between the fbi and justice department about whether and how to investigate the clinton foundation. if hillary clinton wins the election, that seems to be a blockbuster concept that there is real tension. what do you know on that story? pete: we have been aware of this for some time. not in the detail of the story in the wall street journal, but part of this is the understandable, typical headquarters field office mentality. we see these often in criminal cases. the guys on the field say, the

people at headquarters are micromanaging us. if they would take the shackles off, we could really get to them. people at headquarters are saying the opposite. we have heard the same criticism from a lot of people in the fbi about how the investigation into the clinton e-mails was done. they also felt micromanaged. they felt every step they took had to be cleared. they did not like that. i think that is some of what is reflected. mark: the dynamic you talk about occurs all the time but the concern that some have is the motives had to do with politics. that loretta lynch or anyone else in the justice department trying to protect the democrats. is there any indication that claim is being made by anyone in the fbi? pete: it is being made by some people in the fbi, some street

agents that are upset about how this is being run. a lot of people outside the fbi are upset about it. i don't believe they think it is a widely held view in the fbi. it is politics. mark: ok. thank you very much, pete williams. all right, we are going to talk to someone from the trump campaign about what this means. communications director jason miller right after this. ♪

♪ mark: joining us now is jason miller, communications advisor to donald trump's presidential campaign. he is in gotham city. jason, i know you have gotten a rhetorical boost from what director comey did.

i know you will so your supporters are energized, but do you have any empirical data and will you represent to us that you are actually seeing the impact in numbers of the battleground states or too soon? jason: the numbers started moving this past week with the news of the obamacare premium increases. that is what really got the numbers moving in a big way. beyond that the news about the , clinton inc. e-mails and this memo about how they will use the clinton foundation as a for-profit operation. $66 million and, of course, the big bombshell on friday with the news about anthony weiner's laptop and the 650,000 e-mails. this entire investigation that has brought all the -- brought it all up we have seen the . numbers continually moving in our direction. mr. trump was in new mexico yesterday. he is in michigan today. he will be in wisconsin tomorrow. these are states that are blue to purple. we are on offense. we are seeing the numbers closing really tight.

in the key battleground states of florida, north carolina, ohio mr. trump is looking very well. , mark: i know you and others in the campaign are saying the numbers are moving because of the developments, but were you in the field saturday, sunday, today, and did you see a change in the data after friday's announcement question mark jason: the numbers i have seen since the announcement shows positive movement in our direction. again, i do not know how much of that is attributable to the fact of republicans coming home and coalescing around mr. trump, but i think the one thing that you and john with both agree on, what this does is it brings everything back up it brings . back the clinton drama. the questions about what they are doing about the server. it reminds people why they are frustrated with secretary clinton and the insider establishment. john: if we went back to last friday, let's dial back the clock so the comey has not come

out yet, you wake up on friday, and you suddenly learn the news the afternoon that james comey the director of the fbi sent a letter to congress saying that the fbi has opened an investigation into the connection between vladimir putin, russian hackers and the ,rump campaign, you would say your reaction to that what has been? jason: that is purely hypothetical. john: i do not think there is anything silly about it. the issue has been raised many times in the course of the campaign. the chief ethics officer of george w. bush's administration brought up this hypothetical in a debate over the weekend. jason: there is zero basis the truth. let's talk about why we are here. john: i appreciate that, but it is not a crazy hypothetical. if it happened, your reaction would be it was proper for the fbi director to raise any

investigation -- forget about russian hackers. if he was investigating the donald trump campaign in any instance, if he sent a memo to congress revealing that on friday, you would've thought that was fine 11 days before the election or you would've complained that was an improper use of power? jason: we wish the fbi did their job properly earlier in the summer. i don't think there is any way to look at it and not say the whole outside server that was set up, the reasons, the fact we had confidential and classified information routed around it and tying it all back into the clinton foundation that is a whole incestuous next going on. we wish they would've pushed forward and on the right thing earlier. the timing of which, i believe it to you guys and pete williams an everyone else. the important thing is clearly they found something. 650,000 e-mails they have to go through. how many thousands are between secretary clinton and huma abedin?

we will find out. john: with all due respect. you did not answer my question remotely. jason: i just think it is a nonsensical question that does not apply to our campaign. john: ok. mark: let's talk about the electoral college. rank the states in order that you are feeling good about from best to worst and do not say they are all equal. florida, ohio, north carolina. jason: that is a tough one. as we look at florida, it is tough because summer on percentages and some are on actual ballot returns we have seen so far. let's take floated. we have had two polls that shows mr. trump is leading by four points. that is great. and the two things as far as ballots returned, the absentee ballots and early voting the , republican returns are 7% higher than four years ago. democrat returns are 10% lower.

republicans usually start out with a deficit. we are about 100,000 votes closer to the democrats then mitt romney was four years ago. we feel good about the progress we have made in floated. when you look at north carolina, republican return is 35,000 higher. there were four years ago, democratic ballots down by 7000. the net being about 42,000 votes closer. very good. in ohio, it is a little more tricky to count. not quite the same numbers but things look very good there. mark: is that the order you are feeling good about? best about north carolina? jason: i will shamelessly punt and i think you'll all that she will win all three. john: you were also discussing about early in the show of blue states. new mexico and now up in wisconsin. what is the evidence that you are operating on that you think

those states are close to winnable? jason: when i woke up last friday, after not much sleep which is usually the case, we take a look at the tracking data. where things are moving. what we should coming of the thursday night, before we got the news of director coming that came out around 1:00 on friday. we showed it a dead heat in new mexico and michigan. at that point, we had certain things that we are he talked about a couple ideas but we had to get to new mexico on the books. michigan, we were already esther trump went there yesterday. talking about. he is doing to offense there today. he just finished up in warren. he will be in pennsylvania and wisconsin tomorrow. these are races -- part of the thing that gives us so much hope is hillary clinton is around 41%, 42%. maybe on a good pull she might be 43%.

are certain ceiling issues where she is bumping up against and what we see in the makeup of undecideds that are still out there, that they break overwhelmingly in favor of republicans. a couple of these show upwards of a 20 point advantage on the generic ballot as far as undecided. thatve a very good feeling folks will break our way as long as we out there asking for the vote. we have seen in colorado, we have seen not just internal numbers in dead heat. there was a remington research survey that came out today that showed a dead heat as well. this is really the first cycle that is full on vote by mail in colorado, so again the dynamics are a little bit different from what we have seen in the past. as we look at these pickup opportunities, great opportunities. clearly, secretary clinton has base issues. she is not getting the african-american support level that president obama did in the state of michigan. she the same way president obama is not getting those millennial supporters the same way president obama did. there are definitely places for pickup. i think one of the things you would both appreciate the map

, looks a lot different than it did in 2004, 2008 and 2012. we will wake up on november 9 and we will see some blue states that donald trump will win and people will say how did he win , these? romney had no chance, bush had no chance. even in a reelection. the way that donald trump is changing the electorate, we are seeing something different in the modeling. you saw where secretary clinton went up on tv in wisconsin on friday. the are not doing that unless they are worried about losing the state. john: i want to ask you a question about one of our colleagues who wrote a piece on bloomberg businessweek about the data operations of your campaign. that he's quoted a senior trump official saying that you had three different separate voter suppression strategies that the campaign was pursuing. it went into some detail. for a lot of people, that is a disturbing prospect. what do you have to say about that?

jason: either the person, whoever this person not named in the story was either misspoke or they fundamentally have no clue what mr. trump is doing with the campaign. look how late we are in the cycle. we are eight days out. he spoke at length in michigan about his plan for renewing our urban centers and helping the black community in a way that the democrats have not cycle after cycle. mr. trump is running to be president for all americans. he has made this is a cornerstone of his campaign and he has gotten a lot of praise for it. it is pretty remarkable seen a republican working this hard to bring in different groups. any of that type of language -- someone was just way off with their description about what is going on. you always have aspects of contrast messaging. you say here's why secretary clinton has failed the committee

and here's where donald trump is putting forth actual policy to vote for him. you will always have some of that. any of his other language, i have no idea about that. mark: let me ask you the mega question as we close. there is some polling nationally and in key states, the abc poll that shows the race tied. many more polls shows hillary clinton with a lead. in some cases a significantly. what would explain donald trump winning this race in conflict with, at this point, most of the public polling? jason: i will disagree with you. there are certainly polls that show mr. trump in the league. the los angeles times shows it literally in a dead heat with overnight upi polling. there is a .47% differential between the two. others would have it at a one point race. mark: there is no question there

are some polls that show would close, but i believe if you look at the polls that you and i would talked about over the years as credible, national polls, more of her -- and then have her having a lead. do you think you will close the gap before election day? what is the explanation your supporter should look to just say, i'm looking at a lot of polling showing mr. trump behind in about a grand states, but somehow you are still going to win? jason: if you live by the poll of polls, then you will die by it. the problem is a lot of those polls are outdated. as we have seen, even the abc/washington post poll changed within one week. i do not think it was over 12 points. i do not think you are john think it was a 12 point stretch either but there was a massive shift over the last week. we have seen it tightening up. more importantly, as we see multiple polls in florida that shows we are leading.

our internal numbers show was leading north carolina. public polls show it in ohio. . iowa is another state where democrats do not want to give us credit for doing well and i will but this is a state that has been blue for a while in mr. trump will win iowa. at this point you have to start looking at the electoral map and how we are going to get to not 270. only are there a couple of pathways that are there and all momentum is coming up donald trump right now. mark: the jason miller speaking of momentum and comey and everything else. thank you very much. john and i will be back in a minute. if you are watching us in washington, d.c., you can listen to us on the radio radio. it is on bloomberg 99.1 fm in the nation's capital. we will be right back. ♪

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john: in case you were wondering, we asked the clinton campaign to send a staff member to the program today, but they were unable to send one. hopefully we get one tomorrow. we will be right back. ♪

♪ john: make sure to check out bloombergpolitics.com. coming up on bloomberg technology, founder khosla ventures, vinod khosla. until tomorrow, out of respect we say to you, sayonara. ♪

♪ >> 9:00 a.m. in hong kong. 90 5 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg markets asia. ♪ rishaad: on the retreat, asian stocks a plunge in oil prices with energy producers leaving big clients. officially -- rishaad: