john: i am john heilemann. mark: and i am mark halperin. with all due respect is 7-eleven , allegedly donald trump is a wawa man. ♪ we are just one very endless week away from election day. wisconsin,au claire, where donald trump is holding a rally tonight. questions swirl about whether his narrow after presidency is maybe widening a bit. they are making a final push for votes everywhere. trump announced today, he is a spending $25 million over the next few days for tv ads here in

the badger state and other blue states, including colorado, virginia, michigan, and new mexico. clinton's campaign intern is making six-figure busy in each -- buys in each of the states that seem to save in her column. trump is on a bit of offense here in wisconsin. tim kaine is appearing, bill clinton going to colorado. hillary clinton today had some harsh words for political opponent, and this explanation of why the rays might get more data before it is over. at a rally today, clinton went back to her tried-and-true tactic of this campaign for her, she appeared on stage with the miss universe pageant winner, alicia machado, and brought up the subject of trump and women. mrs. clinton: contestants say the donald trump came in to look at them when they were changing. some of them were just 15 years old. we cannot hide from this. be willing to

face it. this man wants to be president of the united states of america. today, i knew abc news washington poll tracking -- washington post tracking poll has clinton leading by 1% nationally, that is in the margin of error. but oh, the symbolism of trump being ahead. theyone wondering if revived probe into clinton's e-mails may be doing or damage. her cam ane -- per campaign said it raised money in the last 72 hours. so john, seven days left. any evidence trump is catching up? john: we are still suffering a little bit from eight possibly ucity ofng -- a pa polling. we are still trying to figure out what the effect of the comey

letter has been. they have trump ahead by one right now. if you look at the other polling, there is no doubt the race is tightening a little bit. but there is not a compelling case that it is tightening a lot so far. i think the most compelling case would come from the clinton site. they are going back on tv in some of these states and sending surrogates like bill clinton to colorado, tim kaine to wisconsin. it does not mean they are panicking or their numbers are showing a decline. it simply could mean they are being careful. trump is going on offense, why not play defense? conclusionump to the that it is decisively meaningful. but it does suggest, if they were the least bit worried about wisconsin or colorado or michigan, they would not be trying to buffer themselves there. it would be focusing on winning north carolina and ending trump's chances. isn: one of the things that true, the clinton campaign has amassed a really large stockpile

of dollars over the last 15, 16, 18 months. we are now to the point where there is no point hanging onto the money. you may as well spend it if you have it. they have always a said the race would be tight. down to the last seven days, do leave a bullet in the chamber. fire, when it comes to ads. that is what those things are, bullets. you're totally right about the money. if they have enough to flood the airwaves and saturate in the key battlegrounds, of course. it is those visits. bill clinton signed is very valuable. the fact that they are sending him to colorado -- tim kaine's time, very valuable. the fact that they are sending them to wisconsin, shows there keeping an eye on those dates. donald trump said in a conference call with the press, their path involves winning the ohio,r -- four, florida,

they mightina -- find a replacement here in wisconsin, maybe. the other thing that is clear, we are not anymore talking about georgia or texas or the democrats trying to expand the map. there is no question about that. today is november the first, which obviously means it is the first day of open enrollment for obamacare. this comes just a week after news that some people will see shocking rate hikes. at least, substantial rate hikes, with fewer insurance options under the affordable air cap -- care act next year. for trump, this is a gift in the final stretch of the election. pennsylvaniaussia, , trump and mike pence called for health care reform policies. they want the ability for americans to shop for insurance plans across state lines. >> before was called obamacare, it was called hillarycare.

even former president bill clinton said, costs are going up. coverage is going down. it is the craziest thing in the world. i guess even when the clintons, sometimes truth happens. president obama said, here is the quote "when one of these companies comes out with a new smart phone that has bugs, what do they do? upgraded.t, they unless a catches fire, then they pull it off the market." [laughter] a coincidence, mr. president. that is exactly what we are going to do with obamacare, we are going to pull it off the market so it stops burning up our wallets. said,ump: the president if you like your plan, you can keep your plan. if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. which may go down as one of the great political lies of the century. she wants to put the government totally in charge of health care in america.

if we do not repeal and replace obamacare, we will destroy american health care forever. it is one of the single most important reasons why we must win on november 8. has not been much polling about how news of these rate hikes are affecting the popularity of obamacare. but mark, if your view at this point, that this is a sleeper issue that might make a real difference in the presidential race? mark: that seems to be the view of the republicans. they have hammered on the affordable care act since it pass. the polling as we have discussed is more negative than positive about the law. it certainly energizes the republican base and unites all republicans, really. unites a lot of independents, particularly businesspeople. the trump campaign claims this issue is turning things in their favor. i think an issue involving the real lives of real people --

even though the coverage is overstated, the extent of the hikes and the problem, i think this may be the sleeper issue that republicans rise through direct mail and digital etc. two advantage with a lot of voters. john: i disagree for a couple reasons. one, if there was a time when obamacare would be a decisive issue, it should have been in 2012. we saw it happen there, it did not sink obama then, it was more unpopular than. mark: that was because romney was a horrible messenger. john: is trump a great messenger on this, i do not think so. i could point out he was lying gratuitously in that clip where he said hillary clinton once the governor -- government to take over all health care in america, that is blatantly false. the other thing that is true, you're right. obamacare is more unpopular than it is popular. -- it is notrs that much more unpopular.

andsplit between favorable unfavorable is only a few points. it is been really stable for now two or three years. mid 40's versus low to 40's. i do not think what happened last week would rapidly change that to the point where it would matter on election day. clear, i do not think it is a silver bullet. it will not be a huge game changer. but between bill clinton and wikileaks, the comey comments, and health care, health care may be the one that is helping trump the most. john: i will take that under advisement, as her doctor. up next, a trump tale. ♪

john: there has been a truckload of unhappy headlines for trump in the last 24 to 36 hours. lucky us, they fit nicely into two categories. one has to do with finances. but first, mother russia. over the past 24 hours we have reportsur different examining ties between what mitt romney likes to call our biggest geopolitical foe. we have mother jones, citing a spy. that story says the fbi received an investigation about the russian government allegedly trying to co-opt and help trump over the past five years. nbc news ran a story that says federal authorities have been looking into former trump campaign chairman paul manafort's business deals in russia. says the, slate

computer scientist have been looking into possible to indications between a server belonging to trump and two servers registered to a major russian bank. the new york times yesterday knocked it down that theory. the fbi has been looking into multiple leaves between trump and russia, including the server business. no evidence has emerged linking the gop candidate to the russians. a mouthful that i just read. at some of these reports contradict each other. all have been denied. my questions to you are the following. there, and ifhere so, doesn't matter to the outcome of this presidential race? mark: after the election, the press will have to do soul-searching of their failure to pursue these trump stories of the last year and a half. a lot of stories did not get enough coverage that should've gone from print to television. in this bundle of stories,'s

trump praise of putin, his refusal to disclose tax returns, those are the big russian stories that have tangibility. probablyl of stories will not matter much. based on what we know, i am not sure any of them do. if they turn out to be true, it is a huge deal. but there is not there -- enough there right now. agree with almost everything you just said. it is one of the great outrages of this campaign, and there have been many of them, the donald trump did not put out his tax returns. as we have called for it, we could not get any leverage. mark: the world should come to a halt. john: it would have been nice if it had. , big part of the reason why because we really want to know. is donald trump in bed with russia? does he owed them money?

such a strange, consistent fondness for vladimir putin. ,iven that the russians according to all national security agencies responsible for these hacks, trying to influence our election this way, we should really no more about a lot of the things that these stories glance at and get at. this is something that still feels really, really suspicious to me. when trump failed to denounce putin when asked about his murdering of journalists, i really do think in a campaign filled with a low points, that was really one of the low point. for someone who claims the mantle of ronald reagan and wants to associate himself with ronald reagan, to have responded the way he did. overalltrump's meta-relationship with russia is a big deal. but i do not know any of these stories in the context of the comey thing will break through. john: i will add to the low

point, the notion we have a sayingcan nominee vladimir putin is a better, stronger leader then the president of the united states, barack obama. an outrageous thing. i hope someone will look into this conflict between the new york times and that slate story because if the slate story is true, that is really damning, the idea of a russian server connected to a bank. i do not understand how those stories could come to such different conclusions on that front. confusing. here is something also confusing. financialmp's dealings making news again in the presidential race. -- new york times donalddocuments report trump used a sketchy tax avoidance maneuver around the time the atlantic city casinos were filing for bankruptcy. the move that would have saved

trump tens of millions of dollars in federal income taxed. the documents obtained by the times show even trump's own gambit legally questionable. two other stories on along the same lines, washington post had another story that came out amidst the comey comment. it raises more questions about trump's charitable giving claims. the other washington post story, about trump refusing or reevaluating payment to his campaign pollster, tony fabrizio. andhere any there there, will any of the matter in the last week? timesi think the new york piece, in terms of the detail, the second piece of theirs that suggests donald trump has played of the tax system in a way that no normal human being could, and

has avoided paying taxes for many, many years. i think that story is as devastating, maybe more than the first one. it suggests he could have not paid taxes for many, many years. donald trump is hiding his tax returns. we just talked about this. he is hiding them for a reason. it now seems to be circumstantially clear, the reason is, he has not paid basically any taxes for a really long time. he understands the political damage from that would be huge. and he is willing to take the damage of not being disclosed of rather than laying it bear. i am glad of the times has been on this story. this is the kind of thing that is disqualifying as anything else he has done. mark: i urge voters to read the washington post story. they are all really interesting, they give you a full or picture of donald trump. i do not think any of them will

be game changers in the last week, but they are important. good for them to continue to pursue investigative journalism all the way through. i will say again, for republicans and others that do not like the five -- fact that donald trump is the nominee, we all need to wonder and ask ourselves, how could they not have found this stuff? the: a swing through polling jungle with our favorite survey monkey man. ♪

mark: welcome back to the badger state. election week is one week away.

we are keeping an eye on the polls. the is our next guest, senior vp of survey research at surveymonkey. along with nbc, news, shows clinton with a six point lead in the four-way. few weeks agoa when he had a rosy projection for hillary clinton. there was talk of her breaking 300 electoral votes, etc.. we are one e-mail bombshell later, how are things looking? were you said, we thinking, could she reach 400? how shere talking about needs to solidify past 270. in today's map we release, she is at 262. she has to recover to get past 270. is this driven by the comey letter, or a natural tightening? >> we're doing a seven-day

track, three and a half days post. we do not yet know if we are looking at noise or not. at the state level, we are looking at small changes. she is a little of had some tossup states. if she gets them all, she will be well into the 300s again. right now, the map looks different. the e-mailsue is, issue is a bad one for her. 83% of likely voters think it was an appropriate she used a private e-mail server when she was secretary of state. is on her,tention with her historic unpopularity, she is more vulnerable. on the flipside, you talk about the stories in your last segment about donald trump. when the focus is on him, he suffers. he has on favorability ratings just as high as hers. mark: i am here in wisconsin where trump and hence are coming in just a bit. we saw them yesterday in new mexico. states sense of these

have moved it all, and the trump campaign has a reasonable chance of winning one or more of them? desperation because they cannot find 270 electoral votes? >> we have wisconsin closer than anybody else, clinton up only a single percentage points. that is down from leaning in her direction a few days ago. we have to see over the coming days if it is truly in the tossup category. it is certainly vulnerable. it makes the turnout and focus for the clinton campaign -- 50% of clinton's own voters think the e-mail issue and the reopening of the fbi issue is a major issue to discuss, not simply a distraction. when we talked about the 400 electoral vote question for clinton, we talked states,pansion/reach like texas and georgia. are those now off the table for

clinton, or are they still in sight? off the today, texas is table, but georgia and arizona are still there. but now they are focused on wisconsin and even michigan, where data shows it is a tossup. there is some softening in colorado and north carolina, which she needs to shore up in the few days. weird race.such a >> we have trump a few points over clinton, and a few more he has gained but momentum over the coming weeks. take a moment to explain to people the methodology surveymonkey uses. surveyhe key to any good is a good, random sample. we have the luxury of 3 million that are sentday out by friends that you may have, what to bring to a -- your employer, we

are doing random sampling on the backs of those surveys and getting estimates on a rolling basis. we have interviewed about one million people over the course of this campaign and now we are doing daily in the states. it is unprecedented, as far as polling goes. we are not only doing 50 states, but a little while ago results in all 34 senate races and we put in major effort. we are sharing those long earnings -- those learnings on a daily basis. evaluate would you donald trump's chances of winning three and 70 electoral 370 electoral votes? >> extraordinarily slim. mark: thank you very much. you just heard about the numbers in this contest. we will talk about the strategy.

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visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. >> if and when hillary is president, what will be the female equivalent of you weren't

born in this country? >> that's an interesting question. i think the equivalent will be moody, shed, she is is being emotional. samantha: there's something about her? men aret obama: when ambitious, of course they should be ambitious. when women are ambitious, why? that seem will continue throughout her presidency and it has contributed to this notion that somehow, she is hiding something. [laughter] obamathat was president with samantha bee last night. think about that? guest: she's always entertaining. comedian.lented john: tell me about where you

think the race is right now. we have been talking about it half the show. guest: we can all agree it is tightening in mr. trump's favor. we saw a huge swing where we were down about 13 points and now up one. she's losing her lead in virginia. it's not looking good for hillary clinton. doubt that theno numbers have tightened. there's a lot for mr. trump to overcome, put aside the story regarding mr. comey. changed in the positions they have taken an direction they want to take the country, none of that has changed. you saw hillary clinton is best positioned to lead the country to make us safer and stronger and more prosperous. nothing has changed between now and last wednesday that would

cause any voter to say i don't believe she's capable of doing that. john: we talked earlier about the negative headlines , some related to russia, some related to other financial matters. if you were running the clinton campaign, what would you want to focus on to drive the narrative over the course of the next six or seven days? the fact mr. trump refuses to release tax returns, that he has had business dealings where he has had old partners saying i don't feel like i was treated fairly by him. i would focus there, but i would take the last few days and make it where i would want to take the country. a mandate she's going to have is predicated not only making clear why donald trump is unfit to be president. the narrative has to be put out there. for her to have a mandate, she has to mind -- she has to remind

people about infrastructure spending and remind the class family that this is about empowering youth are making health care more affordable and making health care more central and more education options. then i'm ready to grow this economy in a way and build on the successes of the last eight years. i have to disagree with that, with all due respect, no pun intended. i think the last few days have changed things for voters. when we have hundreds of thousands of e-mails that have ended up on anthony weiner's laptop, and man of alias character, how could this person be elected to serve at the highest levels of office? she's already shown herself being unable to do that and this proves it. mandate, mr. trump has been traveling across the

country, laying out specific plans, even plans on issues as combating the heroin epidemic we face in this country. i don't hear hillary clinton speaking on that. i remember reading an independent article is that hillary is a great candidate, but a policy free one. i thought that was an astute observation. she speaks about we will raise these wages but it's almost policy and specifics free. pages on has about 800 her website. a fair amount of detail which you guys have not. immigration policy is frightening to any american concerned about safety at the border. guest: i think one unfair thing to say is that she has not been unclear about policies. she's probably been to specific and drawn voters to think she's

not an exciting candidate. you take credit for obamacare, which has proven to be a disaster. she is -- she's indicated she's ready to fix part of it and so is -- guest: she recently tweeted that before they called obamacare, they called it hillary care. thing they want to do is ensure that the millions of americans that have insurance now will continue. doesn't need to be fixed going forward? president clinton will do it. to look there any way at the fact that bill clinton has gone to colorado and a clinton campaign is going up with paid media in those states. is there any reason to read that except that trump may be threatening in those states? guest: we are at the end of the

campaign and they are certain that turnout matters. you can read what you may want to read into it, but i don't think there's any doubt the race has tightened. i think if you would ask a lot of clinton operatives if they were surprised by this, i think most would say no. there's no doubt they were surprised by the way mr. comey decided to inform congress and voters as to what he was doing and the way in which too described it, so i don't deny that. but i don't think anyone should be surprised that our top operatives and campaign principles are out in the most competitive of states. we need to win the state and we send our best people there. you have a been -- you have been asked this before. mr. trump does not want to releases tax returns because he says he's under audit. why can he releases his income, his effective federal tax rate and charitable collection amounts? guest: because that is all intertwined with the audit. with all due respect, the only

tax return that matters for the american voter is my own and those of my friends and family. only donald trump has a plan to put more money in our pockets and return the jobs we have lost and create more jobs. it's an issue for the media that is intent on bringing down mr. trump what a silliness of the tax returns. mark: releasing those numbers have nothing to do with the audit. i urge you to ask him to release those so people can have more information as they have had about every general election candidate. guest: i would never suggest to really set. i can't believe we are discussing this rather than the e-mails that ended up on anthony weiner's laptop. we are discussing both. we have less than 32nd. what will the headline be the day after the election? mandatelinton wins and

is understood. raise wages and empower the middle class. guest: people's champion wins in a landslide, -- headline. a typical clinton cheat over here. mark: well. with all keeps saying due respect, but i don't think she knows what that phrase means. i don't think either one of you should be in the headline writing business. coming up, we have the great john ralston, next. john: if you are watching us in washington d c, you can listen to us on the radio, radio at 99.1 fm. we will be right back. ♪

mark: back in wisconsin in time for our own ralston report. with this, the editor of the eponymous ralston report and a contributing editor at politico. welcome. in the u.s.g on senate race for harry reid posse and how is that impacting potentially the presidential race? guest: that's a very good question. this is theell you most amazing senate race i've covered and you guys know i've covered everyone since 1986. it's going to be a $100 million race with more outside spending than i've ever seen all stop i really think it could go either way. essentially, it boils down to heck versus joe

harry reid. harry reid has in all over this race on the background on one side and in the foreground on the republican side. early voting numbers don't look good for the republicans, rim number what happened in 2012 -- obama won the state by seven and dean heller pulled out the senate race by 12,000 votes. mark: is the fact that the senate race competitive, the fact that the coalition the two candidates are trying to put together advantage either of the candidates? guest: i think they are totally divorced from each other in many ways and not just because heck divorced himself from trump which initially caused a lot of problems, even his campaign would admit, but doesn't now. the coordinated campaign between the hillary clinton campaign and that read democratic machine has been so focused on getting out the democratic base, which i

,hink is going 90% for clinton from what i understand, heck is mirroring trump, which is a real problem for him. the entire strategy is knowing they are going early voting and to help minimize that loss and help when on election day by four or five points. little margin for error. i want to get a little more altitude on the discussion on the presidential race. nevada has become one of the key states for donald trump to have a path to get 270 electoral votes. if you look at barack obama has victories in 2008 and 2012, you would not have thought nevada would be up there with places like iowa. yet he is competitive there. .xplain to me why

>> it's a very good question and what i would say about that is is he competitive here? i always thought the state leans toward quinn -- lead toward clinton. the hispanic vote will probably be above 20%. but i always go back to what trump said the night he won the caucus and looked at the exit polling and was almost surprised. he said that none of us would say aloud. look what how we did among the poorly educated. i love the poorly educated. nevada has a lot of poorly but unlesslks, there's a total implosion in the early voting numbers in the last four days, but they must have pulling that shows that because they are continuing to campaign hard here with surrogates, including the great jon voight appearance tomorrow. john: you are looking forward to that, i'm sure. only spending not time there but the polling has

seesawed back and forth. it has been tighter than you would have expected. what explains the fact that it is even in play? i would have thought given the demographic trend, that this would have been put away for hillary clinton in the way colorado seem to have been put away months ago. guest: i think that is a reasonable assumption. let's assume that the polls are right. guys and i have talked about polling in nevada for years. it's difficult to pull here. you will get some sophisticated democrats who acknowledge this -- hillary clinton is not to barack obama. there was real excitement. the base got out enthusiastically to vote for barack obama in 2008 and 2012. there was much more dragging out of homes, having the bus people do things they didn't do, there is more registration and groups on the ground than there ever

have been before. there's one other phenomenon going on here, in the early voting, young african-americans are not getting out to vote in the numbers they did in 2008 and 2012. mark: the great john ralston, thank you. the media ise gathered here, we wrestled two of them to the ground and had them join us. that come after these words rum our sponsors. ♪

, nbc joining me here now

news, katie tur who is inside the event and kevin cirilli. one of the advantages you have is to see the guy every day. where do you think his head is -- his inner confidence that he can win or will win? fbin: everson's the announcing the investigation, i've noticed a trade. -- a change in the candidate himself. you've definitely seen a new energy and there has been a shift since the last time i was here and the accusations from all those women had come out. mark: i get why we see trump and hence in pennsylvania doing via formal care act today, but why are they together in wisconsin as opposed to fanning out?

katie: they needed to find a way to get those suburban women to join trump and they feel like the best ally they have now is governor mike pence. andbetter to come out hammer through these policy points? it is interesting that they are so laser focused on the affordable health care act. you and i have been talking about how they should be handling the wikileaks staff and he keeps straying from it and it seems like some he finally got to his ear and is telling him to stay on these issues and could potentially help him gain ground through next week. governor pence was with him and was staying with him in pennsylvania. pennsylvania more than wisconsin is a must win state. if they don't get pennsylvania, it's hard to see what the path to 270 is.

, especiallyuggling amongst suburban women in the suburbs in pennsylvania. trump campaign says scott walker will be here tonight. who has been traveling with him lately and how have they been doing getting the republican politician support on the trail at clinton gets from the democrats? kevin: you are seeing people like rudy giuliani and bobby knight. you see jerod kircher and stephen miller, his policy advisor. i would say on the affordable health care act, they almost view this as a secret weapon of sorts. if you go to these battleground states, obamacare is incredibly unpopular. especially as these reports of

increasing premiums come up. they are trying to showcase a more substantive side as donald trump makes the closing arguments. we are all braced to see if anything else breaks. -- trump campaign hoping there's more wikileaks disclosures or are they comfortable with the hand that they have? katie: i think they are happy with the hand they have now and i'm not sure if anybody could say anything else is going to break in the next seven days. fbi revival of that investigation was a surprise. comfortable is not a word i would use, but i would say they if help going forward and they are able to focus on this fbi revival, they are focused on the premiums rising in obamacare and its unpopularity in the

suburbs of philadelphia. but also, the rigged system and using the donna brazile, giving questions to hillary clinton for the cnn debate. they are able to not necessarily 10 more folks into their make sure that republicans out there who have been unsure of donald trump come home to the republican party and vote the ticket all the way through. those who have been uncomfortable with trump, if getssay if hillary clinton in office, she could potentially face an indictment. they hope that will convince those that are the outliers say i have to vote for donald trump. i have to do it because i can't let hillary clinton get into office.

that said, it's a very high hurdle for him to overcome. paul ryan is not here. notable snob. john kasich voted for john mccain and wrote him in on his ballot. else between donald trump and some more moderate republicans or traditional republicans is still pretty vast and it is something not even disdain for hillary clinton can help bridge. mark: we will see you there in a second. thank you both. when we come back, final words, right after this. ♪

john: head over to bloomberg politics.com and read about how the campaigns, donald trump and hillary clinton are lowering up -- lawyering up. tomorrow, mark and i will both be on the road, going to utah. we've got something coming up on bloomberg technology -- it's going to be a blockbuster weekend tech earnings. , for me in new york and mark in wisconsin, we say to you sayonara. ♪

mark: i'm mark crumpton. you're watching "bloomberg technology." running matejoined mike pence in valley forge and took aim at president obama's

signature achievement, the affordable care act. mr. trump: i will ask congress to convene a special session so we can repeal and replace and it will be such an honor for me, for you, and for everybody in this country because obamacare has to be replaced. city, florida, hillary clinton was joined on the campaign trail by former miss universe, alicia much ado. secretary clinton reminded voters about the state critical role in presidential politics. ms. clinton: florida can decide who our next president is which will affect the nation and the world. the italian prime minister says it will take time to rebuild following sunday's earthquake. he made the comments as he and his wife toward the region. jacob zuma wants the country's high court to block a report about allegations of undue