♪ mark: welcome to this edition of "the best of with all due respect." the week before the election. all of the surrogates were spinning. latest allegations on an millionaire amid allegations from the gop the media is unfair. we begin the wrapup up with an 11-hour: bump. there is only one thing anyone cares about. does hillary clinton have an

impregnable lead or does donald a credible path to the white house? there were few credible polls, but a handful of surveys look pretty positive for the republican nominee. first the new york times has clinton up just by three, 47% to 44. that same poll had clinton with a nine-point lead a week ago. and this new hampshire survey from "the boston globe" and suffolk university showed them tied. been upite state has until recently -- people thought clinton pulled ahead, will lead spirit also a new poll from the university of denver, another place where clinton was presumed to have the electoral votes locked down. a new nbc news-wall street journal-marist poll show clinton with -- trump with a comfortable lead in texas. in utah,ly trip is up

where the independent candidate has fallen back to third. jon, we will talk about the polls that are good for hillary clinton, but what do you see in the surveys that are positive for trump? john: welcome, look, the main thing is you start to get an incontrovertible sense that the race has tightened in this last period before election day. if the colorado poll were true, that would suggest that what hillary clinton has relied on as in the bag was not only competitive, but trump is ahead. if you look at that ball more closely, you will show it is hispanics,g 9% of which is not at all what the numbers are like -- i think it was 14% in 2012. that poll may be under representing a key demographic in that state. if that is true or even close to true, it says something

important. professional and movement over the last two weeks. is he still moving, or has he topped out? -- has trumpeted the natural ceiling? i believe this data is suggesting he may well still be moving and he may well be moving in a number of places in a positive direction in those red states where clinton was thinking about challenging and a positive way for him in the blue states. he is still not there yet, but these polls suggest, i think now it is the third day in a row where the data suggests trump movement up and clinton in most of these places well below 50. the trump campaign has got to hope, as they have all along, a lot of undecideds break his way because she is the quads i incumbent. right, the question is

what is the relationship between what is going on this week and what happened in the early vote. we have mixed evidence of the early vote. people in the democratic side are very confident. places like nevada --[bell rings] democrats are confident they have a huge lead in the early vote. will matter a lot in terms of what the outcome is. ok. so, hillary clinton, by contrast, had a few positive poll numbers that came out yesterday. she had a better day, i would say in the polling than donald trump did. there were two polls we could site where clinton would be smiling. this would be a huge deal if hillary clinton were to win the peach state, as deep red as it theand a local fox poll has

nominee of by four percentage points in the sunshine state. that is a big deal -- donald trump cannot win the presidency without florida. polls here are goodness really clinton. are they significant enough that they might offset the good news on the trump side in terms of ?he clinton psyche do the stupid thing and took the latest polls in every battleground state, she would still win. the bottom has not come out. trump has not broken through in enough places to say he can get back to parity with her in terms of his chances to win and i know people think we get paid to be definitive indecisive. i still believe all of these states could break one direction or another and she may end up winning a state like georgia. i think she could in-depth winning a state like arizona. but she could also end up starting to lose.

i will just say momentum matters at the end. she is holding on. she is not collapsing. it is hard to say she has momentum compared to charm. -- compared to. doesn't have a lot of momentum -- and i think you are right, she does not have a lot of forward momentum -- if you are in the lead and you just told served, you and winning. i think the florida poll -- the two campaigns give privately different assessments of where things are. that florida poll we just put up is what i think most immigrants think is the case, and so if that poll captures reality and hillary clinton is going to win florida, that is as consequential as any other single thing in this race. [bell rings] game, set, sunshine match. we talk a lot about the states

that trump would need to win to get there. we want to flip things around to show you why to hillary clinton very much as the upper hand in this race, because her journey is relatively civil. you start with the solid blue's desk out from you, new york, rhode island. thinkn bank close -- those really clinton. then you look at the states that .ave 59 electoral votes those are ones leaning their way where she has big leads in the public polling, averaging five or more. if she wins those, she is 16 electoral votes away, and you can see that final list, where she needs to get 16 -- florida or ohio alone would do it, otherwise some combination. you go back to be leaning list, and again, cap is challenging and everyone of those with the possible exception of virginia. can trump take any of those away? maybe. but you can see under current public polling, hillary clinton

is just 16 electoral votes away with relative ease. if trump starts to dig into that list on leaning, we deal with a different situation. this yeah, the thing about is you look at the list here and him try to get my head around it. the thing about the leaners, right, at this moment, pennsylvania, virginia, michigan, wisconsin, and new mexico, all leaning democratic. excludingtates, four, virginian, of those states are states that democrats have one cycle after cycle. you have to go back to the 1990's to find any one of the states going republican and my believe. virginia was a closer out of ground. she has been waiting therefore a long time. i would be shocked -- shocked -- if any of the states in that than donald trump l column. is not rule of the possibility, but that illustrates why she is still.catbird seat

i know that doubled up is contesting those, but those are big reaches. you use the word shops. if you walk up tomorrow and showed trump moving nationally or ahead in those days, i do not think at this point people should they they are shocked. that is not to predict it is going to happen. she is still bedeviled by wikileaks. from a lot ofing republican operatives working on other candidates, down ballot candidates, the affordable care act thing is in the minds of a lot of voters. it is bringing republicans home and republicans believe in a lot of these contested races is going to appear and you can put the list of states back, people have to remember a lot of these states are contested senate races, and in those contested senate races with one or two exceptions, the republican candidate continues to do quite well and it can make a big difference. we want to go over to the list of the leaning. you have the race in

pennsylvania. you have the one in wisconsin ohio, north carolina. nevada. all of those states have the contested senate races. and republicans are in better shape than most people thought they would be. [bell rings] gon: i will say -- just to back to my shocked comment -- if double dribbling's two of those thatng states, i think will mean he will when mitchell everyone of the tossup states. i don't think that will happen. got ald mean trump has big, big wave, a bigger waves only of seen in this race far, a bigger wave than trump has come close to riding in the campaign to date. quick break, nbc news katie turner joins us to talk about the week to date. stay tuned. ♪

us now from north carolina where donald trump speaking tonight, nbc news coversondent katy tur the campaign. it is fascinating watching him toggle between more uplifting, optimistic rhetoric than he is used to make a vain and still being quite negative going after it'll. is there some balance they are trying to strike? campaigns want to end their campaign on a positive note. certainly hillary clinton did. she is not able to at the moment. the donald trump campaign is no different. at the same time, his campaign has been defined by attacks, oftentimes personal attacks or other people online, social media, or at rallies or in interviews, but also attacks against the establishment, attacks against the hillary clinton, attacks against the

idea that the whole system is donald not just against trump necessarily, but the american people. it makes sense for him to continue on the next five days. but he also needs to distract from his onslaught of negative headlines we have been talking about for 16, 17 months, his chance to focus on hillary clinton entirely, to get out of the way and let her wallow in a slew of bad headlines of loan. this is a calculated move by the campaign, one that they think will regained some ground, one that republican operatives think will help them regain some ground as long as trump stays on the message. john: there is a question we were just discussing on the .rogram about melania trump she has not been doing much? why now? do they have regrets about not using her more? katy: let's look where she was.

she was in the suburbs of philadelphia. this is where donald trump needs to pick up women. republican women in this area, get them to vote for him. deployed there very strategically, they are to portray the softer side of donald trump and the softer side of their family. the support ofe women that other past republican candidates have had, certainly not what mitt romney had in 2012 and if he is going to have a fighting chance, they need to find a way to stem the lead with republican women. she had comethat out on the campaign trail more? they are not saying that to me in private conversations. she has not been so apparent on the campaign trail. she had that speech at the republican national convention, but we have not seen her much on the trail, even by donald

trump's side. it has been very focused on trump as a personality rather than his family life. we have seen more of his kids than melania. what i found interesting, she was talking about what she would and whats first lady she would focus on, specifically bullying on social media and how the rhetoric in this country has .otten to mean and that's raising a lot of eyebrows because donald trump built the campaign on name-calling and undercutting his opponents any way he can and does social media campaign that goes after critics with positive. that was eyebrow raising. earlier in the show, i said that trump was the

country's biggest cyber bully. the remarks seem ironic if nothing else. at 30,000 feet here, it was not that long ago kellyanne conway was acknowledging trump was the underdog. in my conversations with campaign aides, they are suggesting the race is tied or they may be the favorite. what is your sense of his staff will posture about where they stand? the staff is extraordinarily confident. they were handed a gift last friday with the revival of the fbi investigation and another gift with obama care premiums rising and another one with the cnn allegations about donna brazile giving hillary clinton questions before a debate. they say there and told -- their internal polling is showing they are gaining ground in a lot of the states. they even claim that they are gaining ground in a pretty blue state like mexico.

verysay that it will be tough to win. they say it is not necessarily he is going to win, but the down ballot races are in a better position than they were last week. mark: next up, talking about the state of the race in the final days before election day after this word from our sponsors. ♪

>> decades of lies, coverups and scandals have caught up with hillary clinton. mexico since his people, they are not sending their best. they are sending rapists.

i would like to punch him in the face. get him out of here. those are excerpts from the latest ads. deputy the former campaign manager for carly fiorina's run. tracy and sara -- i will ask you the same questions we're asking everybody when we start out these blocks right now. where do you see the race? >> first of all of them in andago and i see the race frankly i see everything through the lens of last night's huge win. forgive me for the euphoria. goes, i thinkrace we are in a good place. what hillary has going for her continues to be her strength. and all of these factors are very much in her favor and i'm feeling confident about tuesday night. tracy, thank you for your

cups -- congratulations on your cubs. i should have said that in the introduction. go, cubs. where do you think about where the race stands right now? >> i would have agreed that hillary has the much faulted ground game, but it has not been turning out. if i were the hillary campaign i would be getting nervous. at this point, you have new hampshire tied in nevada closing in. i will watch these numbers move. i think that's what is coming down to a florida and north carolina get away from her. mark: sarah, give me an inactive. tell me about someone who was not for trump before but now is. -- sarah, give me an anecdote. >> i do not think it is changing

minds. i think it is the enthusiasm level. you have such unlikable candidates -- i think we can see why. in 2012, the republicans are down in the early vote count. in north carolina, the turnout is not working. hillary clinton's campaign is intentionally not turning early voters out in the relying that that was their strategy or things are not going the way they thought they would. you look at when the new clinton ad, increasing attempts to define donald trump is an acceptable, is that working or is that not working? >> what i think is masterful about the approach is all of

these ads are just donald himself, footage of him talking, the things he has said, the things he has done. for theally hands off hillary campaign. he makes the case for himself through his ridiculousness and the lying and the danger and the divisive things that he says. i think the fact that all you have to do is play the tape of extremely well, especially when you see the ads he is running about hillary are largely innuendo. he is giving the campaign a gift in this regard and i think the clinton campaign is smart to be utilizing it the way they have. john: let me push back a little bit. as i looked at those ads, what struck me.

the clinton campaign is beautifully produced and the trump ad is more tabloid, or garish. but the arguments in the clinton ad, those are arguments she has been making for months and months and the ads are the style of ads we have been saying for months and months. the trump ad is injecting fresh information into the race. it seems to me that that is more eye-catching because it is new. it has the feel of something new. you that concern you or do feel that at all when you compare them side by side? >> what i do know is tommy people will make their decisions -- assuming they have not voted yet, they will make their decisions based on your friends and colleagues and neighbors. i that regard, five days out, am not concerned. i think you are right, there is a garish, tabloid quality.

last night when one of those ads came on, the place erected into into boos.upted are -- we put up a list of leaning states trump is spending time in. from a strategic stem point, does it make sense to spend these precious days in states that have been blue for so long? be locking down florida, north carolina, and nevada, new hampshire, and pennsylvania. what is stunning, the hillary campaign is sending lori to michigan tomorrow. nothing shows me the internal panic of a campaign as much as going to a state that does not have a senate race -- nothing explains that except they do not do not see michigan

on the map. i think it is stunning that a democrat would say tv ads do not matter when clinton has so wildly outspent trump on tv and they are saying that part does not matter. i think there's a lot of panic campaigny's right now. they will have to do soul-searching about what the message will be to turn their voters out. election day is potentially republican day. john: tracy, are you panicked? sarah's point, although i think she is misconstruing what i said. it's not that ads do not matter. the cumulative process of this campaign has been, yes, the millions and millions of dollars spent on tv ads have made the case. one or five ads will not make or break. it is the sum total we are talking about here. mark: more on "the best of all

do -- the best of with all due respect" after these words from our sponsors. ♪

♪ trump's senior adviser. >> hi, guys. >> where do you think the basis right now? you're representing the trump campaign. trump's slightly in mr. favor. we saw a huge swing. down 13 points a few weeks ago. third in swing states, it is a dead heat. she is losing her lead in virginia. not looking good for hillary clinton. >> no doubt the numbers have tightened. we remain confident in all the battlegrounds. there is a lot of trump to overcome.

the facts of the race don't change in the position she has taken a mr. trump has taken, none of that has changed. lastly, you thought that hillary was best to lead us making us more promise -- making us more prosperous. nothing has changed to cause any voter that makes them believe that she is not capable of doing that. some stories related to his taxes and russia, what would you want to focus among those stories to drive the narrative over the last six or seven days s? the fact that trump refuses to release tax returns and has had --iness dealings

daysld take the last few laying out where i want to take the country. the mandate she is going to have is going to be predicated on how unfit donald trump is. for her to have a mandate when she is elected, she has to remind people about her infrastructure spending and raising wages. she has termite middle-class families that it is about empowering you making health care more affordable, more education options. would get back to, i am ready to be president and ready to grow this economy to build on the successes of the last eight years. >> do you want to respond? >> with all due respect, no pun intended, i do think the last two days have changed things for voters. when you have thousands of

emails that have ended up on , how caneiner's laptop this person be elected to serve at the highest levels of office? of has already shown herself not being able to do that. and as far as amended, mr. trump has been traveling across the country and laying out specific plans. even plans as detailed as laying out to combat the heroine epidemic. i don't see hillary clinton do that. articleer reading an that hillary was a great candidate, but a policy-free one. she likes to speak on these platitudes. specific-free. she has policies on the

record. >> on her website? her immigration policy is frightening to any american voter and security at the border . >> weekend say a lot about -- we can say a lot about hillary doeson, but not that she not have -- >> do you take credit for obamacare that has been proven to be a disaster. she has indicated that she is ready to fix it. >> she recently tweeted before they called it obamacare that it was called hillarycare. >> there needs to be a fix going

forward and hillary clinton is committed to doing that. harold, is there any way cutook at bill clinton will colorado? is there any way to read that except concern that trump will be threatening in those states? you can read what you want to read into it, but the race has tightened. ask clintonto operatives if they were surprised, most would say no. there was surprised last week with the way mr. comey decided to inform congress and voters as to what he was doing and the way he described it. i don't think anyone should be surprised that our top operatives and best campaign principles are out in the most competitive of states. we need to women in those states and send our best people there.

, i know you have been asked this before, mr. trump does not want to release his tax returns because he is under audit. hiscannot he release terrible deduction amount? >> that is intertwined with the audit. donald trump has a plan to put more money back into our pockets and create more jobs. that is not a big issue for the american public, but for the media who is intent on bringing down mr. trump. releasing those numbers have nothing to do with the audit. i urge you to ask him to release that. myself, ittorney would never suggest someone

would release that. before the election, i'm surprised we are not discussing the emails on anthony weiner's laptop.

♪ jason miller, the senior communications advisor to donald trump's presidential campaign. jason, you have gotten a boost from what mr. completed -- mr. cosby did. do you have -- what mr. comey did. do you have any empirical data? >> the number started moving

this past week with news of the obamacare premium increases. that, the clinton leaked emails and the memo about how they would use the clinton foundation. withig bombshell on friday the news about anthony weiner's laptop and a 650,000 emails. we have seen the numbers moving in our direction. that is why you saw mr. trump in new mexico yesterday. today he is in new michigan -- today he is in michigan. tomorrow, wisconsin. we are on office -- we are on offense. we talk florida, ohio. mr. trump is looking very well. say thew you and others

number started moving because of the other developments. were you in the field saturday and into today and did you you see the and did change in the data after friday's announcement? >> they have showed positive moment in our direction, but i don't know how much that is attributable to the fact that republicans coalescing around donald trump. the one thing mark that you would agree on is it brings everything back up, all the clinton drama, all the questions of what the heck were they doing with the server? it reminds people about all the reasons why there frustrated with secretary clinton and d.c. insider establishment in the first place. >> if we went back to last friday, so dial back the clock and wake up on friday and learned the news in the afternoon the james comey sent a letter to congress saying that the fbi is opening an

investigation into the connection between vladimir putin, russian hackers, and the trump campaign. you would say -- your reaction would have been want? >> that is a silly hypothetical to throw at him. >> nothing silly about it. >> division has raised many points in the campaign. theor ethics officer raised same type of question over the weekend. there is zero bases of truth. let's talk about why we are here. hillary clinton -- >> let's stay with my question. it is not a crazy hypothetical. if it happened, would your reaction be that it is perfectly proper? if he was investigating in the trump campaign and sent a memo to congress are viewing that on friday, you would have thought

that was fine 11 days before the election, or complained that was an improper use of power? >> we wish the fbi had done a job properly early in the summer. there is no way to look at this ncb hole outside server setup and the reasons that it was set up and why we had classified information being routed around it and tying it back into the clinton foundation which is this whole incestuous mix going on, we wish they had done the right thing earlier. --theming of which important thing is clearly they found something. what if they find? 650,000 emails they got to go through. how many thousands are between clinton and huma abedin? >> with all due respect, you just did not answer my question. questiona nonsensical

that does not apply to the campaign. >>. ok. jason, let's talk about the electoral college. rank fees from best to worst. florida, ohio, and north carolina? we look at florida, it is tough because some of them are on percentages and some are on actual ballot returns. let's take florida -- they have two polls in the last seven days that showed mr. trump is leading by four points, which is great. things as far as ballots being returned, both the absentee ballot in early vote, republican returns are 7% higher than four years ago. democrat returns are 10% lower. republicans start off with a deficit. we are 100,000 those closer to the democrats and mitt romney was at this point four years ago, so we feel very good about

the progress we made in florida. in north carolina, the republican return is 35,000 higher. democrat ballots down by 7000. 42,000 votes closer and in ohio, some of it is trickier. can't quite counted quite the same inept city voters, but things look very good there. >> is that the order you are feeling good about? i love all three states. i think mr. trump is going to win all three on the eighth. we're discussing a bunch of very blue states. evidence that you are operating on that makes you think those states are close to winnable. >> after i woke up last friday,

the first thing we take a look at this what is moving in the polls. this is before we got the news from director james comey. we showed it effectively a dead heat in both new mexico and in michigan. things point, we had that we had talked about and decided we had to get new mexico on the books. mr. trump went there yesterday. michigan is doing to events there -- mr. trump is doing to events in michigan. these are races, part of the thing given so much hope in this races is secretary clinton is around 41%, 42%. issuesre certain ceiling where she is bumping up again and what we are seeing is the thatps of the undecideds break favorably for republicans.

of 21% on awards generic ballot. we are confident that people will break our way. notolorado, we have seen just internal numbers showing a dead heat, but there is a survey that came out today showing a dead heat as well. this is the first cycle where it is a full on voted by male in colorado -- mail in colorado. we look at these pickup opportunities. these are great opportunities. secretary clinton has base issues. she is not getting the african-american support that obama had. she is not getting millennial support like president obama. the map looks different than it 2004, 2008, and 2012.

there are going to be a couple ofof mr. trump is going to win. mitt romney had no chance, mccain had no chance, bush had no chance. the way trump is changing the electorate and turning people out, we are seeing something different in the model. use our secretary clinton went on tv in wisconsin on friday. they are not doing that unless they are worried about losing the state. injosh green rent a piece bloomberg businessweek about operations. they quoted a trump officials saying you had three separate voter suppression strategies to the campaign was pursuing. it went into something about what they were. for a lot of people, it is a very disturbing prospect. what you have to say about that? >> one a few things happen -- one of two things happened. or theyer misspoke,

fundamentally have no clue with what mr. trump is doing with the campaign. mr. trump is going into communities. he spoke out in length in michigan on redoing urban centers in helping the black community in a way the democrats have not done cycle after cycle. mr. trump will be president for all americans and he made this is the cornerstone of his campaign. he got a lot of praise for it. it is remarkable a republican working this hard to bring in different groups. any of that type of language is way off with their description of what is going on. you have certain aspects of contrast messaging where you say here is what secretary clinton has failed the community and this is where donald trump has presented things from taxes, school choice.

his other language, i have no idea. >> jason miller, thanks very much. coming up, john ralston of the wilson report comes on to talk swing state stand, and will be here after the break. ♪

♪ back in wisconsin and time for our very own customized ralston report. john ralston, the editor of the economist. welcome. what is going on in the u.s. senate race for harry reid's seat and how is that impacting the presidential race? john: it is a very good question. this is the most amazing senate race i have covered.

i have covered everyone since 1986. it will be a $100 million raise and more outside spending that i have ever seen. i really think it could go either way still. joentially, has boiled down heck versus harry reid. harry reid has been all over this race in the background on one side in the foreground on the republican side. the early voting numbers don't look good for the republicans, remember what happened in 2012? obama one the state by a most seven and keller pulled out of the senate race by 12,000 votes. >> john, is the fact that the senate race is competitive and the kind of coalition the two senate candidates are trying to put together, does that advantage either presidential candidates? john: they are totally divorced from each other in several ways.

heck divorced himself from trump. the coordinated campaigns between the hillary clinton -- hillaryand theeid clinton campaign in the reid democratic machine -- from what i understand, heck is mirroring trump, which is a problem for him. strategy iseck knowing they will lose early voting. they want to minimize that loss and win on election day. little margin for error there. >> let's get more altitude on the discussion. somehow, nevada has become one of the key states for donald trump. obama'sook at barack

victories in 2008 and 2012, you would not have thought that nevada would be up there with places like iowa and ohio. you didn't think that it would be one of the keys and trump winning. explain to me, why? john: it is a very good question. if you competitive here? i always thought that the state lead toward clinton. the fact that the hispanic vote will be about 20%, but i always go back to what trump said on the night he one of the caucus when he looked at the exit polling and was almost surprised and said, look how i did among the poorly educated. i love the poorly educated. nevada has a lot of poorly educated folks. no doubt about it. but i don't think there is a path for trump unless the total implosion in the early voting numbers in the last four days. they must have polling that

shows that because trump was here and they are continuing to campaign hard with surrogates including the great jon voight appearance tomorrow -- john boyd appearance tomorrow. >> that only of they spending time there, but the polling bear what explains the fact that it is even in play? awayught this would be put for hillary clinton the way colorado has been put away for clinton months ago? john: that is a reasonable assumption. let's assume the polls are right, which i don't think is a good assumption. we talked about polling in nevada for years. it is not good here and difficult to pull here. going on heres and you will get sophisticated democrats to a knowledge this. hillary clinton is not barack obama.

ande was real excitement doozy has him to vote for barack obama in 2008 and 2012. there is much more dragging out of homes having to buzz people and doing things they did not have to do before. there are a lot of groups on the ground on the democratic side then there ever have been. and there is another phenomenon here in early voting, young, african-americans are not getting out to vote in the numbers they did in 2008 in 2012. john: great, john ralston. thank you. this you for watching edition of best of "with all due respect." if you are washing -- if you are watching visit washington d.c., you can check this out on radio. ourk out for all of election coverage and we will see you monday and you can join

us for a special election night of this program. until then, sayonara. ♪

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♪ >> this is the best of bloomberg technology. up, facebook predicting a slowdown post of another reported double-digit growth how long can the world's biggest e-commerce company test company continue to defy estimates? steve ballmer ways in on the u.s. election why he's advising