>> america decides. the big day is finally here after one of the most bitter election campaigns in memory. asian equities extend their gains as the latest polls put clinton narrowly ahead. u.s. futures slip. china's exports dropped for a seventh straight month. a brexit budget vote. a warning that to leave the -- great cost the britain 25 billion pounds.

>> a very warm welcome to "the daily." -- guy johnson is joining us all of this week from new york as america votes for its next president. guy? guy: we're waiting to see how the day is going to turn out. the markets had a big move. today maybe a little bit more caution creeps in. after such a big move, the futures are starting to dip in the u.s. we're starting to watch some of the early votes come in and we'll talk about that and the early voting critical to this whole story. america votes today. the markets on tender hooks. anna: thank you very much. we are bringing you live pictures of the candidates as they continue to campaign. >> we have information from the world top selling car maker toyota. toyota coming in with the

second quarter operating profit of 474.6 billion yen. that is a beat on the estimate f 463.7. remember, the expectation was that there would be a drop of 39% in net income off the back of some of the ongoing currency volatility. the firm also underscoring that it would buy back up to 3.1% of shares for 200 billion yen. again, this is a stock that has a 13 analyst rating. the stock has been down, though. over 20% so far this year. closed higher, 1.3% before the announcement so then toyota coming in with a beat there on the operating profit and intending to buy back those shares. it is a tough, tough time for those automakers, anna. >> it is. a tough time for the banks

with the interest rates as low as they are globally. that is one of the challenges for credit agricole. quarterly profit doubled as it booked gains from a reorganization and got a boost from bond trading income. they made a pledge around the dividend pledging to keep it stable next year. 1.25 billion euros is what they gained. the net profit came in ahead of estimates. the gain booked around the restructuring story. the c.e.o. is simplifying the bank's structure, providing a greater capital buffer. it is damaging to consumer banking. the shares down. around 11% this year. like all of france's major banks, managing to outperform in the sector a little bit and the boost they got from

38% ng, they got a increase in third quarter revenue helped by a giant decline in revenue. more earnings. d.h.l. coming in with earnings of 13.9 billion euros. estimate was 14 billion. a miss on the third quarter revenue. it confirms 2016 guidance. the net coming in at 618 million euros. this is of course a firm that has been dealing with the tepid economic conditions. growth industrial output has been hampered by that economic weakness this year. a source of downside pressure for the stock. this is one that has a rating of 14 buys.

10 holds and three sells. up 9% so far this year. little changed compared to the stoxx 600 industrial good and services index. later this hour we'll be speaking with deutsche's c.e.o.. that's an interview you can see first on bloomberg. . we have information for adecco. an estimate of 18.9%. this is a business that a lot of questions around just how well they are knowing the u.k. market. just how much has brexit triggered a decline in u.k.'s firm's demand for employees if at all. the swiss based company c.e.o. will be talking to him a little bit later on in the program. we'll be speaking to him at

6:15 london time first here on bloomberg. >> let's check in and see+++ some of the key independence sis are performing. we are still digesting the impact of the increased odds of a hillary clinton victory. is currently down 10%. the u.s. dollar spotting at 97.7, holding to the biggest gain in two weeks. >> the s&p futures, we put those in -- bear in mind they are negative but they were more negative a couple of hours ago. as we continue to see clipt knopp the lead in the polls. three percentage polls to her ahead by a slim margin. that seems to be something the markets are suggesting. a little bit weak but not falling as negatively as they were earlier on today.

that's a quick look at where we are on the equity markets and others. others besides -- now election day is finally here. after a long campaign, hillary clinton declared her candidacy april of 2015. trump declared his in june of this year. the candidates jetted around the big swing states yesterday in a final push to get their messages out to voters. >> hello, pittsburgh. >> florida is my second home. >> if hillary clinton wins in north carolina, take it to the bank, she is president of the united states. >> in one day, do you believe this? in one day, we are going to win the great state of north carolina. >> we have one more day, michigan. >> this is the most consequential election of our lifetime. >> people love their country. >> tomorrow is the election. but that is just the beginning. have to heal this country. >> we're a very divide country. people don't realize.

we are an unbelievablely divided country. we're going to come together. >> it now just comes down to you. it is out of hillary's hands now. it is out of michelle's hands. it is out of my hands. it is in your hands. >> get the vote out. every single vote counts. >> let's goat guy johnson. he is in new york. guy, election day finally here. the markets have been waiting for this for a very long time le >> they certainly have. we have seen a lot of volatilityo the last few weeks as we build toward this day. you indicated the futures at the moment. i'm looking on the fair value for s&p futures. it is telling me we're going to see a mildly positive open. that is likely to swing in and out of positive. we started the see reacting quite strongly.

we have seen gold coming down. take a look at the charts this morning last night into this morning holding reasonably steady. the market very much on tender hooks. ere we have seen action, euro-dollar volatility has spiked higher. it is only a few hours time. it seems like an incredible journey that has taken us here. the markets only beginning to respond in the last two to three weeks, really starting to price in what is going on here, as we work our way through the f.b.i. saga and the impact that has had on markets. it tells you this is an important event that could have a meaningful impact. we saw what happened with brexit. i think that has change market perception of these events, particularly in an area where popular imism is on the move. potentially later on today, we

can be refocusing back in on the fed. we could have a status quo story. a lot of people will be questioning that. has the mail landscape changed and has it changed for good? it will take a while to answer those questions. >> guy, what have we seen so far in terms of early voting, what is the story so far? guy: two things going on here. one is the early voting. remember, only certain states allow early voting and under strict rules and those rules have been changing as we work our way toward this. subtle shifts. the early voting, the out the day voting, the benchmark for early voting and it is something that is -- has gone clinton's way. clipton four votes. trump two votes. gary johnson and romney also

featuring on the battles. the scene at this stage and it is very early in terms of the overall picture, but it seems the early voting appears to be going the democratic candidate's way. these are big important states with many, many electoral votes that go with them. we're going to be watching these very, very carefully. early indications appeared to be going clint op's way. it is an incredibly tight race so it is going to be a minute by minute tick by tick event as we work our way towards some of those key battle ground states. the markets very much on tender hooks. anna, yusuf? story's get to our next he says the u.s. economy is still something he wants to invest in. a trump victory could make it

more attractive. let's talk with a global market strategist. let's get to the latest poll numbers. does that change your view who comes out on top? >> no, it doesn't change my view. this is incredibly tight. if you put a gun to my head, i would say clipton wins with maybe 282. that is tighter than two previous victory margins than obama. ut similar to what bush had. the new swing states, the virginias, colorado, new mexico and nevada i think are going to stay with hillary clinton. attention is on florida. it could be very comfortable and tight for clinton but i

think she squeezes it out. >> do you reach for brexit play book? i pulled up here one function on bloomberg, n.t., news trends. this is around the brexit vote. people often mentioning brexit and flump the same news story. are you reaching for that brexit play or are the parallels overdone? >> are we going to see a sudden surge towards flump the polls behind this kind of shy trump theory that we have seen play out in votes before? that is obviously possible. it didn't really happen to him in the primaries which is the thing here. if there had been all of these eople that wouldn't tell the pollsters that went to vote for him. >> polling around brexit is a different thing.

>> exactly. brexit never happened before. this event happens every four years and it is about different states and you piece them together. it is a different polling exercise. in terms of if you see a trump victory, i think you see a brexit play book for the markets. weaker currency. weaker rate assets and interest rates. >> looking at trading yesterday in fact how similar it has been to june 23. apart from the dollar where things look different, we have quite a lot of parallels if we show that graphic with the various asset classes. commodities, gold, all sorts of asset class, yesterday's trading mirroring what we saw on june 23. >> the markets showing that clinton is going to win.

look, the market i don't think -- i don't think we can trust the market to call this either way. you're just going to have to find out. >> how do you best -- this election and hedge against a trump victory? >> with great difficulty. this is a binary event. it is very hard to do. you can bet on a trump victory n betting markets. that's pretty heavy leverage. of course buying gold is the other one. i think the question we have been debating in the office is what -- where are you going to see some of the movements that people are talking about. everyone is talking about the dollar. think about what trump is going to to the world. there is worries about trade obviously. worries about the climate accords. hard to price some of that in. what about nato. he has questioned what they are should be doing in eastern

europe. what is the market going to do if trump gets elected. do you not have to lower the evaluation or anything that is so close here and what does the ruble do? if trump wins, you probably think oil is going to fall because people are going to question global growth and be worried. also e.m. is going to fall. what is oil going to do? they are an oil-based e.m. and you have seen worrying relations. >> people talking about the political changes as a result of this election rather than domestic change in the u.s. >> if you're worried about the u.s., one thing to make yourself feel better about about a trump victory. >> plenty more to get through. revenue was in line with expectations at 5.8 billion euros. our guest is on the phone from

zurich. let's get the latest news here out of the way in terms of the im, this ongoing uncertainty the u.s. election is having on your business. >> i would say that we are pleased with a good po performance in the third quarter. we had a continued to slow growth in europe with pockets diplomat of double growth in italy and spain. regarding the u.s. we have a flat situation. still the professional staffing performing well. we had more than double diplomat growth in medical and science. good figures in finance and legal. and then in the rest of the world, we are growing with 7% so steady growth with japan still also in the slow growth that boost 2%. >> as c.e.o. to have business san francisco, i can follow up

on his question, does it matter to you as a c.e.o. of the business, does it matter who wins? >> let's say that i'm not paid to speculate and we do not have reasons to believe that it will have significance impact on the economy and on the labor markets, i think for us and for america, what is important is to emphasize and prioritize education, job growth and opportunities for all americans that we are re, happy to support this, especially on the youth unemployment. there is still a way to go in the u.s. >> let's shift across to some of the challenges you're facing on the european mainland. specifically in france. how is the labor market holding up there? >> >> in france we see a steady growth. we have revenue up 3% with

construction and logistic and distribution. there is a recovery but it is a kind of soft recovery. not a strong recovery. we are very pleased with profitability. we had more than 7% profit but it is a steady growth but not a very high level recovery. >> you have been critical i know in the past about the lack of apresentasship. if i can move on to the u.k. and a lot of focus on the brexit vote in june and what that has done to appetite among your customers to take on temporary staff. >> in u.k. we had 4% growth. i'm very pleased with our results with our growth. we had some very good commercial wins in the u.k., but we have seen the first sign of kind of uncertainty with results in the current

placement. we had minus 3 and mainly in london and mainly in the sector of finance. >> what about any acquisition plans? any kds out -- candidates out there? >> we are very pleased with the acquisitions. the integration is going very well. the business is going as expected. we had also made two small acquisitions in the q 3, one in the u.s., in the very specific discovery sector and another one to reach critical mass in finland. but as you can imagine, we don't comment on activity in m&a and if there is something to tell, we will tell, we will tell it in the due moment. >> i want to ask you a little more about the u.k. you mentioned the deal. you bought the consulting

company rler on this year. you didn't think risk of brexit or a brexit vote was something that would make you question the logic there. do you think we make too much then as the politics and how that impacts on the business. you clearly had confidence to go ahead and do that deal. >> as you know it is the leader in what we called the transition and placement. it means that also in this rea, if some companies are deciding to transform themselves due the bricts, we will be there to help them. - due to the brexit. u.k. is one of the biggest markets in the world. this was missing in our portfolio. i'm very pleased with the acquisition. we did know that there was this brexit going on but

nevertheless, we did this acquisition and i'm very pleased with what we have done. >> we'll have to leave it there. thank you very much for joining us this morning. now let's get to the bloomberg business flash. >> thank you investors are pricing in a victory for hillary clinton. the final bloomberg poll before election day shows clinton leading donald trump 44% to 41%. the poll was conducted before f.b.i. chief james comey said hillary clinton should not face charges. year-end bonuses for wall street bankers are expected to shrink this year but maybe not as much as first feared. johnson and associates said it may fall as much as 10% from last year. in may expectations were for a

20% drop. the improvement comes after the biggest investment banks reported a second straight quarter of gains. chinese drivers rushed out to buy small engine cars last month and sales surged 20% year own year as they were looking for a tax cut that xpired soon. >> thank you very much. let's turn to china where tough times continue for exporters. new trade data out this morning shows a seventh traight month of declines. >> there was some better news domesticically as sales rose for an eighth straight month.

consumers rushing to beat the expiration of year-end tax cuts on small engine cars. the u.s. economy is something our next guest says they want to invest in. before i jump into the u.s. economy, i want to stick with this china story. we have put up a chart here for some additional perspective. you can see this ongoing shift towards domestic demand. the decline more accelerates. what do you read into these numbers? >> this is less of a china 29-17 story and more of a global story. we have sync seen a weakness in global trade. investment tends to be capital good heavy. that's what makes global trade ove forward. if we look around the

developed markets, we have seen a weak period in business investment for america. five quarters where business investment has subtracted from g.d.p. growth is based on consumption. not too much there. epic -- in every commodity from every country from australia to canada to brazil. that is what is dragging down global trade volumes. one thing i would say about these numbers is these are value numbers. the volume of commodities that china was importing is rising again. last year, china's industrial heartland had a very bad time. you can call it a hard landing if you want. actually their volume of imports is starting to rise again. it is a sign that the downdraft in the motte bear market is probably over. >> thank you very much. stay with us. david, lots to get through with david this morning.

let's talk about what's going on in the german corporate world. the german delivery firm out with numbers this morning. here to discuss the results is s the c.e.o. frank app everyone l joining us from germany. thank you very much as always for getting up to talk to us this morning. profits climbing on the recovery for what was a project you wanted to forget. help us untang it will derlying strength in the business. >> we see the results of structural reforms we have taken last year and said this year would be much better. we are on a healthy track. all divisions have improved. we are very happy with the development despite that the world economy is modest at the moment. yes, we see the impact of the

actions we have taken. >> the market has been a source of concern for your business. how is that going to develop going forward and how are you mitigating a possible long-term impact here? >> we have expected that the market will only grow lower than -- slower than the g.d.p. until 2020 that will be the trend. we are prepared for that. i think, you know, the right answer to the service quality, service quality as we do that in all of our division, that as driven our success. we are well positioned in that industry with our capabilities across the board. >> in another market, we were having a conversation here about the threats to global trade, whether that is geopolitical or whether that is the slump in global trade that we have seen of late.

the markets have been troubled recently. how will global markets develop do you think? >> so we expect going forward that the market will grow in ine with g.d.p. but at times the trade market gross much faster than worldwide g.d.p. we believe it is over for the next couple of years. we believe it will grow in line g.d.p.. >> we're just hours away with the showdown from the final decision who is going to become the next president of the united states. what is better for global growth and trade? which candidate would you prefer to see in the white house? >> we are never involved in the elections. that is the job to have citizens of the country. whatever you do, you expect them to experience something different. i would refrain from suggesting anything at the moment. let's see what happens and then we have to deal with that

anyway. >> we'll see what happens, yes. have to deal with whatever the result is. are you concerned though to the extent that the subject of globalization and global have t whatever trade has been caught up in this .s. presidential election? >> i think there is zero evidence that protectionism has helped any country in the world. show me this country that has benefited from protectionism. you can't find any. therefore i think we should continue to be strong advocates for opening markets. if you look around the world, the country has done world in opening the markets have done very well. the countries most connect reasonable doubt high on the human development index. we should talk about that whenever we can. globalization is good for many people. we should be proud of that. >> talk to me about your m&a activity. you picked up quite a few

assets over the last two years. are you going to continue along that path in terms of inorganic growth? >> what we have done is we have acquired some small companies and we intend at the moment to acquire one in the u.k. for instance. that will probably continue. it will be not be big acquisitions arnold the world. -- around the world. we will continue to do that as we have done in the last years. >> yeah. on the subject of m&a in the u.k., you requiring u.k. -- acquiring u.k. mail. we just spoke with the c.e.o. of adecco. you ever not put off by the brexit story in that regard, frank? >> so we believe that theecommerce market will ontinue to grow very nicely.

we're optimistic thatecommerce will help us. >> thank you. thank you so much for joining us frank. let's get to another german business story. we have numbers from the german maker of house hold good. third quarter numbers coming through. they are confirming their full jori organic sales growth. concerning their outlook for the current year also. giving performance in the third quarter, various parts of their business. a touch light on home care organic revenue growth. they were above estimates in beauty care. the technology is part of the business. that looks to be a little bit ahead of the estimate. in terms of the overall e.p.s. numbers, third quarter adjusted e.p.s. 1.42.

broadly in line i guess you'd call that in terms of the numbers coming through from this company. the company has protected its even margin in the path. originally set for the year. the company is aiming to boost sales to 20 million euros this week. that was set by the previous c.e.o. let's get to some of our top stories. we have the new edition of day moab. vailable on your -- mobile. >> the cover story is of course the u.s. election. investors are pricing in a victory for hillary clinton. the final bloomberg poll before election day shows her leading donald trump 44% to 41%. markets of course reacting to that kind of margin yesterday. >> the next story is the warning, the business facing a

hole in its public finances following the brexit growth. only partially offset by a 6 billion pound reduction in spending if britain steps -- stops contributing to the european union budget. >> day break focuses in on industrial production data. the u.k. at 9:30 london time. >> markets are rallying as polls point to a clipton victory. let's get more from nejra. some people are feeling a sense of deja vu here. we're not seeing the risk appetite that we saw yesterday. the 10 jori yield almost one basis point. we are seeing a rally in those risk assets. when did we see that before? in the runup to the brexit

referendum. let me take you through the asset classes. here we go. looking at stocks first. they are extending yesterday's gains. not the gains we saw yesterday. p 1/10 of a percent. asian equities up for a second day. same for commodities as well. we are seeing a little bit of a pullback in metals after they rallied earlier but still the bloomberg commodity index holding up here as you can see at the end of the chart. that measures returns rather than stock prices. sticking on the emerging market theme, we're seeing it move higher too. exican peso up 1/10.

the risk after tie it a little bit of caution creeping into these markets. the outliar this time in terms of asset classes in termsst of brexit is the dollar. we have seen it strengthen. ahead of brexit we saw it weaken. options traders have become more bullish on the yen versus the dollar as the election nears. jpmorgan chase and hsbc saying neither clinton or trump would favor a stronger dollar. >> thank you very much. i love the fact that every time i read a story over the last 24 hours it says this is what we can learn from brexit about the u.s. presidential election. we talked both sides of that story. >> healthy to take a step back. let's get more on the u.s. elections. it is a big day that is finally here. we'll get across to guy johnson who is stand big in

new york. we were just talking to david stubbs here. he was underscoring how difficult it is to position yourself accurately for a binary event, the one we're facing now. what are the markets expecting in the next 28-48 hours? >> markets are expecting a hardship victory. going to end up at the white house with a democratic candidate in it. i think the more interesting race may be what happens with the senate. it looks like the house is probably going to remain with the republicans but the impact of a senate that goes the republicans' way as well could be something the markets have to price in over the next few days. keep an eye not just what's happening with the race for the white house but some of the other races going on here. the checks and balances story is going to be one of those significant ones that we're going to need to think about over the next few years. it may enup in a scenario where it is very difficult for hardship to enact much policy and as a result of which we end up in a situation where

not much happens over the next four years in terms of significant shifts. that's something we need to bear in mind as well. it is not just about the white house tonight. it is about what happens in congress and that will be followed very, very closely by the pundits and the markets i suspect as well. the markets are definitely pricing in a slight victory at this stage. you have seen that in gold and what has been what's happening the yen over the last few days. you can see the early voting going up on the screen. that appears to point to the idea that hillary clinton has a lead in some of these key battleground states and remember that her path to 270 is easier than it is for donald trump. the early voting coming oufert new hampshire. the three small tiny towns in new hampshire that vote early, and at the moment while the first one went towards hillary clinton, it is actually, you put those three together. we're talking about a handful of votes that have gone donald trump's way.

it is going stob interesting to see how that tos. it is just over -- just around for the 60 votes that we're talking about here. probably not the best lead indicator in terms of the outcome. >> thank you very much. guy johnson in new york. the u.k. chance lor philip allen is facing a hole in the brexit vote. diminished growth will result in 31 billion pounds in lost tax revenue. meanwhile in brexit -- david davis has been pressed by lawmakers to provide more details on the u.k. leaving the e.u.. it comeses on a court ruling that parliament must be allowed to vote in terms of starting the talks. >> the point of no return was

passed on june 23. implemented the decision to leave the e.u. means following right processes. we must leave in the way agreed to by law in the u.k. and other states. >> david stubbs still with us. we're very much focused on the u.s. election story today. there is this ongoing conversation about article 50 that we need to have. how much did what happened last week affect your view of when we see article 50 trigger, if we see it, when we go to the polls for another election in the u.k.? >> i think the when is a significant one. it looks like the commoners wouldn't hold this up, labor our said they were not going o vote against it. commoners can amend. i do think we have already passed the point of no return

as david davis says because i don't see elected officials putting up that resistance for fear of losing their seats when there is another vote. >> what about another election? parliament says that shouldn't happen. >> it could. that law basically says the prime minister of the day, theresa may, would have to claim she can't govern in this current set-up. if you had some major resist fans in the commons to prevent article oo, she would have a case for that. i think what labour said over the weekend is very significant. eventually it will get through if opposition doesn't stand in the way. it is going -- it is going to

hold an election in 2020. >> what are the implications of all of this for an investment. this is a real mess. there must be some real terrel damage that is being done. >> i think you see that worry in the currency. -- currency flects both reflects loss of assets. we have lowered our attractiveness as an investment location. the type of brexit will depend on that. the lead in this story is the i.f.s. saying there will be a big hidden tax rev new mexico growth is possible. bank of england thinks the u.k. is going to grow slower next year. i would agree with that. on top of the actual growth, are -- activity going to leave the u.k.? we look at the euro clearing. the industry is actually not

that heavy in terms of employment. but is very heavy in terms of output and tax revenues. that is where it is most likely to reduce impacts. not just from low growth. that is going to hit the chancellor pretty hard. >> interesting talking about the appetite for investment in the u.k.. you can always find deals being done. >> there is a key difference between our market being attractive in its own right which it obviously is. we have a large domestic market. that is not going to change and our country being attractive -- the rest of the e.u. the last one is probably a smaller deal than the former. it doesn't mean it is not a significant loss. for us to say we're going to give you access to the e.u. customs union. >> the other big risk must be the rising prospect of inflation going forward.

how is that going to play out? how do you hedge them at all? >> when investing for inflation, you don't just target the inflation itself. you target the cause. it is an idiosyncratic move. yes, you can buy inflationary government bonds. look at the evaluation. it is pretty extreme already. you have to price in higher inflation. if the currency is going to go further down, buy anything that is not denominated in sterling. how about you buy something higher yield that could trend higher like local currency, emerging markets debts. one of our favorite hedges. >> we started talking about he warning from the i.f.s. the chancellor suggested that is a deficit goal or the goal

round raising the deaf eficit has been postponed. >> the government came into the parliament saying i'm going balance the book by 2020. that is out the window now thanks to brexit. the performance of the economy is going to make him not be too aggressive. i think he goes after the inflation issue. that is a regressive tax. if you cut it, you help the poor. t directly impacts prices. i think a modest cut one or two percentage points, you give the economy a little bit of juice. you kind of neuter the inflation surge we're going to see and give the economy a little bit of support. that's what we can expect. there is already a lot of red ink. >> the u.k. growth story is

considerably weaker. >> you can say the economy is ok but we're going through a period of turbulence. we're going to get a little bit of help. >> thank you very much. stay with us. >> still to come on program. election protection. we up the top trades as america votes for its next president. an outlook for oil. and more on britain's budget law. could brexit put a dent in u.k. public finances. we'll get you all the details. state of the union. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is brexit times five. this will be brexit times 10. this is going to be brexit times 50. this is going to be brexit plus, plus, plus.

anna: there you go. a lot of brecksette. donald trump has been talking a lot about brexit comparing his campaign to the brexit vote. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. >> thank you. investors are pricing in a victory for hillary clinton after one of the most divisive u.s. presidential campaigns recent memory. clipton memory is leading donald trump 44% to 41% in a poll that was conducted before f.b.i. chief james comey said clinton should not face criminal charges related to her use of the email server. france's third largest bank climbed in line with estimates. it the lender pledged a stable or rising dividend for next

year. toyota has raised its profit forecast for this fiscal year. operating profit will probably drop for the year ending in march and improvement for the company's forecast in august. the yen's rally stopped short of levels toyota had predicted. a sales slowdown is threatening its position it is a top car maker. sales surged 20% year-on-year bought ers in china small cars to receive a tax cut. year-end bonuses for wall street bankers are expected to shrink this year but maybe not as much as first feared. compensation as a resultanant johnson and associates said it may fall as much as 10% from last year. in may expectations were for a

20% drop. the improvement comes after the biggest investment banks reported a second straight quarter of fixed income trading gains. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you very much. let's get back to one of our top stories. the only top story. markets and the u.s. election. jpmorgan chase sees no change in the treasury yield if clinton is elected but sees it eight basis points lower if trump is elected. 10 jori yielding at 2.4% in a trump presidency. yusuf: barclays sees it going 3% higher sfclipt on is elected and 13% lower if trump is elected. is it really that clear cut in what stands to gain and what stands to lose? either scenario? >> in the short-term yes, it

is absolutely is. anything risk asset, anything based on the current trade system is going to take a hammering in the next few days but then things not connected to america will recover those gains within a week. that's what we saw with brexit. things that won't recover will be u.s. interest rates currency. if you take the entire presidential term, a couple of times -- invested in u.s. regardless of the election. that is absolutely the case. we have seen the current policies being fairly positive for the market. if trump gets in, the things he is going to do to america fiscal ryan, a conservative, is probably going to be very pro equity markets. ax reform, tax cuts.

anna: looking back at what we election on other days, we have seen this immediate decisive reaction in markets. things started to look different. people factored in the weakness of the pound. the s&p 500 returned after the u.s. vote and then over the next 12 months and makes the point that you can't really read much from the day after a vote as to where things go in the long-term. it sounds obvious but truly you get a knee-jerk reaction. >> absolutely. the american political system has checks and balances, does prevent a president from driving a huge amount of policy there. any trump policy is probably going to be pro markets as well. we have a chart saying what happens if you're only

invested in the stock market during democrats or during republicans? they are much muff worse than? you stayed invested the entire time. america is a healthy economy that is going to continue to grow. underlying this, we have all been concentrating on the election. the last six weeks of data have been fantastic for the u.s. the decline in business investment is ending. g.d.p. growth is coming back thanks to a bounce in inventories and strong consumption. this is an economy you want to invest in. if they raise rates in december, it is because the economy is healthy. yusuf: in a column for bloomberg view, they outlined two scenarios. one is the trump scenario. what we haven't been talking about is a clinton victory with a sweep in congress.

are you worried about that? >> i'm not worried about that at all. prethe f.b.i. letter it was possible but unlikely. now it is incredibly unlikely that she will sweep the house. the markets are pricing in gridlock with clinton or a republican sweep. a republican sweep or a democratic sweep, it doesn't really matter. it is a sweep. you can do an awful lot. a huge amount of uncertainty when you know what kind of politician you're getting and you don't know what you're getting with donald trump. some republicans don't like him as much as they don't like clinton. gridlock, a lot of policy change. the market never really likes change. americans need the candidates -- they need infrastructure, reform.

we'll have to see which one the market likes. anna: some of that gridlock can be frustrating. talking about what impact a fed rate hike would have on the u.s. economy. you mentioned if we see clinton win then that makes the fed certain in december. where do 10 jori yield goes? we read at the start of our introduction that you'd see no change if clinton were elected. looking further ahead, it goes higher more quickly under clinton, doesn't it? >> some banks had the opposite. that trump would have a 2.4% versus 2% for clinton. certainly in the short-term, no change. it will go lower if trump gets elected drifting up to about 2% is probably sensible. this side not really about where the fundamental growth of the u.s. economy is. it is where how far the fed can push up its policy rate in

this global environment. anna: thank you so much. yusuf: still to come on the show, getting out the vote. we bring you the latest on polling data in the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪

yousef: america decides. the big day is finally here after one of the most bitter election campaigns in memory. asian equities extend their gains as the latest polls put clinton narrowly ahead. also this morning, trade troubles. china's exports drop for the seventh straight month. budget blow. a warning that the vote to leave the eu will cost the u.k. treasury 25 billion pounds. ♪

yousef: welcome to bloomberg daybreak, europe. i am alongside anna edwards in london and guy johnson is in new york. guy: election day in the usa par. the markets are firmly behind hillary clinton. it does seem that the financial markets, the betting markets and the polling do seem to be online the kind a narrow clinton victory for the white house. remember, we are just talking about the white house. there is a very close race for what will happen within the senate. the big question surrounding the house is how will the republicans do and how many seats will they lose. it is the relationship between the white house and congress

that will be critical. anna: let us get back to the european data because we are getting some german industrial data. comingwe see weakness through in germany at the end of the third quarter. industrial output falling amid a summer slowdown. industrial production declining more than predicted. the latest sign that this economy slowed in the last quarter. industrial production slipping 1.8% versus an estimated 0.5%. led by energy and investment. coming a day after the unexpected drop in factory orders for september. all of this data is volatile and it points back to september and ties into the bundesbank view that the economy has experienced a soft patch in the third quarter. some of the data since then says that business confidence is declining.

bear in mind how backward looking this is. another day of gloomy news for the german economy. yousef: we have a report from opec. they have raised their forecast for global oil demand in a year and through the end of the decade. they are anticipating that cheaper crude will spur consumption even as economic growth slows. -- in expected to reach 2017 and they are also seeing a $300,000 barrel a day increase from last year's forecast. opec did cut its estimates for crude about $20 a barrel. that is compared to the previous outlook. it is unassuming that crude will average $40 a barrel in 2016. also raising the predicted price to five dollars a barrel. brent had averaged $45 a barrel. the group is in the make your of figuring -- is in the middle of

figuring out how to provide production targets. under the relatively new ceo, the company says there for your nonfood growth margin will be up by 50 basis points. they are guiding down on the growth margin number. they are saying that all of the other guidance remains unchanged. addedill not make an return of cash to shareholders. underlying costs will include a charge. no return in the second half in terms of cash to shareholders due to strategic change costs and market conditions. they say they have made good progress against the strategic priority they set out in may. focus on the numbers as to whether we will see any change in the u.k. store portfolio. whether we will see a pullback

from their international business. those comments are being digested. briefly on abfoods. us theirwhile giving they are broadly in line with projections. this is a company that spans andark to a sugar business a host of assets for the company. we will see what they say about the pound. it could boost the company that operates in 48 countries. yousef: let us see how european markets are set to open. a quick look at the futures. a little conviction. they keep us at the edge of our seats. barely above the flat lie. the ftse is up 0.1% and the attack is trading -- and the cac

is trading to the downside. sense that inthe many of these asset classes, the moves came yesterday in reaction to the fbi story. mexican peso against the u.s. dollar. dollar index is fairly stable but clinging to the dollar gains. it had a gain yesterday, the most in two weeks. less volatility in the foreign exchange markets as we started to price in the possibility of a clinton victory. ahead in the latest polls. -- bear inthe msci mind this is a rebound from last sessions seven-week low. that is a positive sentiment extending to trade. currently looking to the downside. almost a 10th of 1%. anna: they worsened just a little bit in the last hour. let us bring up the 10 year bond yields.

we had a long conversation with our guest about what that could do. -- 0.16%.tenure yousef: let us pick up on the chinese story. exports fell there for a seventh straight month in october on tepid global demand. 1.4% leading a trade surplus of $49.1 billion. the q1 had depreciated 9% since last august that it has failed to provide any sustained boost to exports. anna: philip hammond is facing a hold in public finances following the brexit vote. he says diminished growth will result in 31 billion pounds of tax revenue.

the british continues to contribute to the european budget. has been pressed to provide more details on the uk's stand on leaving the eu. parliament must be allowed to vote regarding starting the talks. the government will still present had with article 50. >> the point of noise -- the point of no return was passed on june 23. this means following the right processes. we must believe in agreement with the law which means following the process set out in article 50 and the treaty of the european union. anna: samsung electronics has been dragged into the south korean presidential scandal. investigators searched for evidence that the smartphone maker provided illegal guest. that is at the center of an influence peddling investigation.

the company confirmed the rate. global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. you can find more on all of those stories on the bloomberg top . yousef: let us check in on the markets in asia. juliette saly has the latest. juliette: it has been another pretty solid session coming through in asian equities today. not quite the rally you are expecting when you wake up and see that 371 point gain from the dow jones index remember asian markets rallied quite high on mondays session. many analysts saying that investors are pricing in a hillary clinton win. ura. a word of caution. if that happened, it is time for profit taking because we have fromsolid moves coming in the asia pac region in the last few sessions.

hong kong in late trade up by one third of 1%. energy stocks coming under pressure. casino stocks did quite well. shanghai had a positive session, up by 0.5% even though the october trade data was disappointing. the nikkei closing out the session pretty flat but we did have some yen strength today. the exports stocks coming under pressure. the other big move today in terms of asian equities has in the rally we have seen in currencies. the mexican peso rising on the likelihood of a clinton win. the korean wan also having its biggest gain in three weeks. up by 0.7%. how mucheally showing investors are willing to still continue with this risk on appetite. anna: thank you. let us get more on the you -- on the u.s. voting story.

after a long campaign season, hillary clinton the her candidacy in april 2015 walter donald trump declared in -- while donald trump declared later. a final push today to get their messages out to voters. >> hello, pittsburgh. >> florida is my second home. >> if hillary wins in california , take it to the bank. >> in one day, we are going to win the great state of north carolina. >> we have one more day michigan. >> this is the most consequential election of our lifetime. >> tomorrow, is the election but that is just the beginning. we have to heal this country. >> we are a very divided country. people do not realize that we are an unbelievably divided country. >> it comes down to you.

it is out of hillary's hands, michelle stands, and my hands. >> vote. get your friends out. anna: let us go to guy johnson in new york. what our markets expecting? guy: markets seem to be pricing in a hillary clinton white house. that is the base case scenario. we saw the big move yesterday. you talked about what happened --n various asset classes when that was priced in. the financial markets, the betting markets, politics seeing on what we are and they all seem to be largely unlined behind that. it is easy to focus on the presidential race the cause that is the most important aspect of this for the rest of the world but domestically, many people are focusing on what is happening in the incredibly tight races surrounding the senate. that is one area where the

financial market may focused in the next few days. it is only going to take five swings towards the democrats for the democrats to retake the senate after two years and i can have a meaningful impact on what the next four years looks like in terms of political manipulation. the headline story is what is happening surrounding the white house but the votes surrounding the senate and the house where we may see some republican losses could be critical. ,he relationship with paul ryan the majority speaker in the house and how he will relate to donald trump post this and how he will relate to hillary clinton -- all of these elements will be critical in terms of what this election actually meet for financial markets in the next few days. anna: we had a great conversation with david stubbs about the ability of the next president. what are we seeing so far in the early voting? guy: let us talk about early

voting. and then we will talk about the small towns in new hampshire. early voting was significant this time around and it has been a big part of the election warm-up story. the key battleground states appear to be leaning towards a democratic story. remember the path of donald trump is much more difficult then that of hillary clinton. he really needs to deliver in some of the states. be a done deal if she wins in some of these states. that is an easier story to work through. donald trump to really deliver in some of the states. in terms of new hampshire, there is a handful of small towns that have opened and closed their voting. towardsus one went hillary clinton but if you aggregate these three towns together, the story is pro-trump

. i do not know how good a guide that is to the overall outcome. but what i was fascinated about was the back end of that string we put together of the candidates and their surrogates talking about how divided the country is. it has been such a divisive campaign. how will that affect the story going forward for the united states? anna: guy johnson joining us from new york. yousef: let us get more from our guest. ceo at the financial partners where he helps to manage 3.2 billion euros. looking at these correlations. and you say it doesn't matter. >> i don't think that is true. different constituencies on a domestic basis -- the state and municipal governments controlled most of the agendas.

the congressional power has been almost unlimited over the last few years so there are some checks and balances in the domestic market. on an international basis, the president has leeway in galvanizing support at home comes more easily overseas. have had a lot of conversations about the geopolitical implications of a big change in the white house or a donald trump victory in particular. you have the latest polling. 41-46. if you want to keep an eye on the exact polling data -- this does put donald -- this does put hillary clinton ahead. the market is cautiously pricing in a clinton victory. this is a sensible way to look at things right now? >> it looks like brexit. deja vu. something we all need to pay attention to.

the release from the fbi clearly dampens that speculation and there are people still debating in the swing states as to who they will vote for. it looks favorable for her but i think we should all be cautious because polls have been increase -- have been incorrect. yousef: what will the world look like after a victory from either candidate? the market is telling us is reflective of what we are seeing in the polls. how do you envision that world? clintonote for hillary is a safety vote. people think -- more of the status quo and maintain the ability to engage on a global basis and a domestic races overall. with donald trump, the big challenge is -- what does the world look like and i think it would look very different from the perspective of being a candidate versus being the leader of the united dates. i don't think much changes in the same way that until article

50 is invoked that brexit looks much different. i think we will continue to see stagnation. if the democrats do not win the senate which i think is unlikely, you will still have checks and balances which will prevent clinton from doing anything materially. i think she will have a larger domestic agenda associated with infrastructure and investment. donald trump still has to figure out how to turn the rhetoric into policy. anna: on bloomberg, we show how donald trump and brexit are increasingly mentioned together. this seems to make sense. every time i've read a story that says -- reach for the brexit plate. then i read another story that says -- the parallels to brexit are overdone. how important is that brexit conversation? >> from the market perspective, i think it is irrelevant.

from the political perspective, it has a huge impact. perspective, it will be determining what happens thereafter. the analogy in my opinion only goes as far as where you put your vote down. and he joe is with us will continue to stay with us. anna: donald trump may call himself mr. brexit but what does that say to the ongoing debate in britain. we will discuss where we are four months after the brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> they will soon be calling me mr. brexit. >> this is brexit times five. this will be brexit times 10. this will be brexit times 50. this will be brexit, plus, plus. a lot of brexit. anna: he draws the parallels.

changed.ples continuing that the, philip hammond is facing a 25 billion pounds whole in the public finances following the brexit vote. that is a warning. ininished growth will result 31 billion pounds of lost tax revenue offset only in part by a 6 billion pound reduction in spending. yousef: joe is still with us on the program. a realityt report -- check to the damage being done to the u.k. economy. economy, the idea of separating yourself out of the global economy and creating ok city in terms of terrorists -- and creating opacity. anna: what is a big impact for you on the world that you operate in?

is this around euro clearing taking place in london? >> i think that is part of the story. the financial system is there to reflect the real economy. that is what it does. when you break it down to its basic component, the financial system has generated a path of narrow connections -- neuro connections on a global basis. it creates uncertainty as to how they connect back together. we have domestic financial institutions. we do not have a lot of global. if you look at a bank in the how is gdp growth going to be? do people want mortgages? the global component. the idea of foreign investors coming here. they will look and question if this is a place they can use for

a launchpad to europe. point do banks pack their bags? where is the red line? >> that is a difficult question to answer because everyone's strategy will respond -- right now, strategies are almost eliminated. it is all tactics. how can we stabilize the ship in an unstable environment. when you look at the ability to ascertain what you will do strategically post an article 50, you will have to see how the community response. the red line and all of this process has more to do with what your clients do, how they respond and whether people are investing in the u.k. or not. we have more businesses in europe than in the u.k. but this is our home. we have to contemplate the idea of opening a larger european operation outside of london. anna: would you leave london?

>> we have to think about that. if you cannot passport and the regulations are changing, the looked leaving london unquestionable two years ago. anna: and in the meantime, you make plans to acquire barclays. >> that is a domestic french opportunity. the french banking system is one that is similar to how we like to play. large institutions that are not fleet of foot. yousef: outside of brexit, what is the top risk in europe? >> with breaks, you have to question the integrity of the wider european system. and the wider european system has been held together for political purposes rather than economiesut as the

declined the political support that come into question. it is unlikely but it is probably the biggest threats. yousef: we will have to leave it there. a quick look at the start of the european equity market day. guy is in new york. ♪

♪ guy: welcome to this special edition of bloomberg markets: european open. what a day it is going to be. i am alongside jonathan ferro. caroline hyde is back at base in london. here is what we are watching. it is election day in the usa. hillary clinton has a slight lead on donald trump. how has such a divisive campaign changed america?