welcome to "bloomberg daybreak," on tuesday, november 8. election day, and i'm jonathan ferro with david westin and alix steel. the biggest pop on the s&p 500 since march of this year, futures going nowhere, down about four points on the s&p 500. -22 on the dow. yieldsn off yesterday, down about a basis point to 182 on treasuries and the dollar yen down, a weaker japanese yen. head to the polls to decide who will be the next president. results are expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. aocks are slightly lower with billion -- opinion polls showing hillary clinton slightly ahead. kenneth make their final pitch to voters. candidates take their final pitch to voters. --lary clinton: it's job

it's not just my name on the ballot. it's the kind of future we want for our children and grandchildren. our core values are being tested in this election. but everywhere i go, people are being -- refusing to being defined by fear and division. we've come through hard economic times and we have seen pretty big economic changes. i believe in our people. i love this country. donald trump: the only force strong enough to save our country is us. the only people brave enough to vote out this corrupt establishment is you, the american people. people,ng this for the and for the movement. and we will take back this country for you, and we will make america great again. alix: that is what you need to know. it's all about the election in the united states today, joining us from the white house is washington correspondent toluse olorunnipa. take us into the final moments

of this campaign. what were they saying? toluse: both candidates were trying to gin up the vote in various battleground states. the important image less i was watching hillary clinton in philadelphia with president obama and first lady michelle husband, billr clinton, as well as celebrities like bruce springsteen. she was trying to rally support, if she can get high voter turnout in important democratic states and cities, she will be able to be the next president. donald trump was also trying to rally his support, where he has a lot of enthusiasm. if he is able to get high voter turnout among his supporters, he will be the next president. it all comes down to voter turnout in these last hours. david: do you have any sense of theseirit within

campaigns, versus confidence vers anxiety? toluse: hubbell a, both are showing a lot of confidence. hillary clinton has numbers on her these campaigns, side, with several po victory. she could lose a couple of swing states and still win. double trap is saying he is confident he is going to shock the world, like he did when he won the republican nomination, but his path is much more narrow. he has to win every single swing state in order to beat hillary clinton, because it is such a narrow path for a republican. both are showing a lot of confidence, but really it comes down to the voters and we will see what happens when voters make their verdict later tonight. david: how are these two candidates spinning today? toluse: both candidates are voting in new york. probably within the next couple of hours, they go to the polling places, show up and cast their vote for themselves. and then they are probably going to be dark for most of the day, until they're watching election results come in with their families. and then we see how late into the night we go in terms of finding out who the winner is.

seeing who concedes, you not remember the donald trump says he's going to keep the country and suspense if he loses about whether or not he's going to give a consistent -- a concession speech. that is something we are watching as well, to see how these candidates handle either being the victor or losing later tonight. ,avid: toluse olorunnipa thank you. tune in later for special election coverage of 5:00 p.m. eastern with a 2:00 -- a two-hour edition of "with all due respect." we continue with david gura and megan murphy. with the market, we turned alix steel. alix: the rhetoric is that this will be a tough election. at deutsche bank, taking a look at other historically close elections and the average of the s&p into and out of election days. as the blue line. into election days, you see relatively down for the core months preceding, and then a 5%

rally after the fact, that white bar is the election day. this year, we are in a different place. that's the orange line. we are significantly lower than the average of other historical elections. are we going to see that 5% pop? we typically do during these close elections. seeever swings we do tomorrow doesn't necessarily reflect where we are three months out or even 12 month out of the time horizon. that uncertainty is bleeding and how we are looking at volatility. this orange line is the next and the white light is -- the vix and the white line is the s&p volatility. without this disconnect free brexit -- we saw this disconnect , and we are seeing something similar now, a bigger move in the vix versus s&p volatility. place -- are they pricing and enough volatility? this oracle averages between 15

and 16, so we're definitely in the right zone. what does that mean for the s&p tomorrow based on who wins? it's interesting to see what we are seeing an asset classes trade we are seeing pockets of the currency market, but this takes a look at equity global flows over the last year, since january 2014. i just want a highlight was happening in the u.s., which is the white line. a pretty steep decline, losing about 240 billion dollars of flows into u.s. equities as investors continue to rotate out. where are they going? japan has seen the most steady flow, but the u.s. is really getting hurt. david: investors are working really hard today to position themselves for whatever comes tonight. in the debt markets, analysts have been trying to figure out what clinton or trump mean -- win might mean for the 10 year treasury. sees a drop in yields if donald trump becomes president. abramowicz,s lisa

and terry weissman -- thierry weissman -- thierry wizman. lisa: it's a very important distinction. ae immediate reaction to clinton win will be yields in the 10 year, rising to a trouble with people yields seeking safety from the volatility. longer-term, the belief that a trump victory would lead to a steepening of the yield curve, you would see longer bonds selloffs, that's the theory out there because he would do more spending and have a less fiscally tight budget. and vice versa for hillary. markstill a big question for analysts. if the short-term sentiment shift in a long-term view on fundamentals.

the idea that either of these candidates connection to get the policies through they want, can they really shift fundamentals? arerry: at this point, we talking about where congress goes. congress has to approve any new tax policy that will require nor donald trump present. if we have a democratic sweep, i think hillary will be able to do a lot of things. but that's unlikely given that the house will stay republican in the house has purview over most tax and budget matters. it's going to be tough to pass some of the more extreme measures in either candidates' package. tax surcharges she is proposing will be tough to pass and presuming the tax reduction of the donald trump is proposing will be tough to pass as well. over the calls are all map. deutsche bank says you are looking at the year-end of 2017 at 2% for the 10 year, but today they say is going to be 2.6%. how do you square away the divergence we are seeing in

views? thierry: i don't think there is that much of it emerges to see the tenured go up by modest amount -- the 10 year will go up by modest amount, 2.6% versus 2.2%, it's really the direction that the market cares about here. in the streeteory is that a donald trump victory would steepen the yield curve, and that hillary clinton victory would flatten the yield curve. it's not just about spending. it's also about what federal reserve policy will do in writer demonstration. there's a clear view that under donald trump, the fed might desist from raising rates, but also be inflationary, because of said policy that could raise 10 year yields as the short end of the curve comes down over the next few months. hillary clinton is the opposite. the fed is likely to raise rates, that would bring short-term yields up but it would also be this inflationary on a long-term perspective, beaming -- bringing 10 year yields lower. david: the polls indicate we

will have divided government one way or the other. but even with divided government, is there a possibility of tax reform? i'm thinking of corporate tax reform, because a lot of these issues cross the aisle. when you talk about repatriation of funds, both are into that. we have to do something about the corporate tax code, and could that affect the yield on the 10 year? lisa: i think reform from the corporate tax rate could potentially affect the rate on the 10 year. more importantly, for a market reaction in the near term is the tax policies of the richest americans, and how that will affect me visible bonds in particular. a lot of people are watchingsaying if clinton comes willoffice, muni bonds rally because wealthier americans get taxed more, so it would be basically a bigger benefit to them to have a tax-free municipal bond toned it. where is if mr. trump wins, you will have the converse effect, muni bonds may selloff. alix: how would you position in

the next 24 hours and the next three to six months? thierry: i think a hillary clinton will win, and as i mentioned, that's a situation where i think that bond yields can go higher and i think nominal bond yields can go a lot more -- a lot higher than inflation protected treasuries yields. ,nd one reason is because again, this may be sticking to the popular view on the street, but hillary clinton conceivably can also be somewhat inflationary. and we are seeing inflation already. and as a result, if i were to be positioned in treasuries, saying the five-year part of the curve or seven your part of the curve, i would rather be positioned in inflation rather than treasuries. asked alanf -- we greenspan where he thinks the tenure is going -- 10 year is going. have aeenspan: you could fairly major shift away from these extraordinary low yields

on 10 year notes, for example. of 3%, 4%, 5% eventually. jonathan: 60 years and the federal reserve has hiked interest points once. we are talking about the politics aggressively moving the dial on that in some material way. this is the former fed chairman alan greenspan, that we are going back to 4% or 5%, we haven't been in that world for the past decade. where we going back there? -- why are we going back there? lisa: good question. lisa:i just don't see it. i have not heard one person say this. even if a clinton or trump gets into office and passes sums of deficit spending program, that is typically deflationary. typically in the long run, if you incur more debt, you are not going to accelerate the economy. i was doing research on hyperinflation and what would cause it. it's not caused by deficit spending.

it is not what's going to cause some short of rapid increase in inflation. looking at,s i'm for example, if you look into my terminal, i'm looking at the price of oil with five-year forward break even, looking at the future inflation rate of oil are very closely correlated. there are other things at play here. alan greenspan is talking about another world that doesn't exist anymore. jonathan: i learned if you really want to get lacey -- lisi fired up, you talk to a yield of 5%. lisa: that would change anything. jonathan: lisa abramowicz and thierry wizman, global registry strategist. he will be staying with us. let's get you up to speed on the headlines. here's emma chandra. emma: theresa may says she will work to reinforce the relationship with the u.s., no matter who the next president is. she told sky news she will call

whoever wins today's election as soon as possible. on sunday, she had said she wished the president race to be more calm and measured. germany has arrested five minnick used of recruiting -- five men accused of recruiting for the islamic state in germany and raising my to send them to syria to join up with islamic militants. meanwhile, german chancellor on the merkel's government wants to cut carbon dioxide pollution by more than half over the next 15 years. that's according to the draft of the plan obtained by bloomberg. the reduction would be the most ambitious in the eu. her government has well over months or how to divide pollution cuts among the biggest sectors of the economy. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra, this is bloomberg. alix: thank you. littleuity futures a later this morning after the monster rally yesterday. here's an individual names you want to lose sight of on election day, kicking off with hurts down a whopping 32%.

z down a whopping 32%. this is the first report after separating the car rental business from the quick and rental business. gamee other side of the plan, we have priceline, this company actually writing down its opentable investment by about $941 million. after about that company for $2.6 billion in 2014. the write-down is off by 36%. the stock is up by about 5% result, with a lower but they were still 5% above the street. lower results, but not as bad as some had feared. up this morning cutting its 2016 forecast after a third quarter shortfall is also taking a $1 billion charge to goodwill to write down some assets here it valeant continuing to struggle to get on top of itself here. bill ackman owns about a 3.6% stake in the company. next, polls are

now open across the eastern part of the united states and we are seeing florida, one of the key battleground states. it's very important to both candidates. the question is, what will the election mean for american brexit? what does it mean for bertelsmann -- partners and rivals around the world. and our all-star guest, tom baerga colony capital, jim mark from xina ridge partners. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm jonathan ferro.

some stability, futures down but only marginally. -15, after the biggest one day bob on the s&p since march of this year. in other asset classes, bonds are lower yesterday, yields higher. yields lower by about a basis point of 182. the dollar-yen pushing towards 105, a weaker japanese yen story. it parallels between today, the events and the potential for follows similar to brexit. comedy times have we heard that? -- how many times have we heard that? we even heard of from donald trump. trump: this is going to be brexit plus. this is brexit times five. this will be brexit times 10. this is going to be brexit times 50. it's going to be brexit plus less plus.

a lot of brexit. jonathan: thierry wizman is still with us. i think you get a picture from mr. trump. -- ofck of the picture the comparison myself, but the market is he really similar. thierry: the market see some similarities here. i think the greatest similarity is the prospect for surprise. in the case of brexit, the polls were not necessarily moving away from brexit prior to june 26. it was the analysts who got it wrong, and the bookies. they read the polls wrong. they just clearly refused to believe it. today, the polls are not in trump's favor. it's not clear they are, not as clear as they were in brexit's favor on june 26. but the analysts nonetheless are siding with hillary. could there be a similarity with brexit? yes, but as similarity of surprise. he means that the u.s. will

withdraw from its role in the global economic and political order. , if you more scary will, more worrisome interpretation of what trump means when he says our brexit. jonathan: we'll get to the scenario in a moment. it would to the dollar-yen, the overnight following the stock rise. we are pretty much exactly where we were leading into the brexit vote. overnight volatility dollar-yen on the stock price as well. that makes me think, are we capturing the ability to price risk in this market? are we doing this in the right way compared to how it was done six months ago? so.rry: i think the dollar-yen has not only been the currency to move the most on the prospect of trump rising in the polls, is also the currency where we've seen the most implied volatility. seemingly suggesting the currency is going to move most at least among developed market currencies. if trump wins and we get some sort of surprise. worth hillary wins and we get

the opposite surprise. it's not the most volatile of maxcurrencies, the dollar reserves that role. alix: taking a look at the bloomberg in this overnight volatility for the dollar peso as well as the euro-dollar, they are spiking max higher along wih the yen. when you look at things like this, what is the best effective way and the cheapest way to hedge the next 24 hours? thierry: if what you are saying is hedging a trump victory prospects of a clinton victory would not be the same as the head you might put on the prospect of trump victory. from my perspective, in terms of the liquid product, if you believe trump is going to win, you would want to sell dollars against yen, you would want to buy yen against the one or another linked emerging market currency. buying the yen is probably the best way among the liquid markets or foreign exchange markets to hedge against the trump victory. jonathan: thierry wizman, is great to have you on.

alix: coming up, it's an american cliché, as goes ohio, so goes the nation. is it true this time? one battleground state may not be the bellwether for the election. that's next on bloomberg. ♪

david: this is bloomberg, i'm david weston. time for bloomberg trends, what we look at top stories terminal users are reading on the bloomberg. you can find is for yourselves on read go. it's a headline that says clinton holds the electoral edge on election day. 270 to win, the projection is based on real clear politics polling of individual states that she would take 301 electoral votes, but it's very

close. florida is a total tossup at this point. pennsylvania has a slightly, in ohio, donald trump has a closely. jonathan: there are a lot of markets out there, the city of london and on wall street as well that they want to know what time they can go to bed and when this will be done. david: i don't know. florida, going into 2000, florida always takes 10:00, and i think maybe 10:30? brexitn: coming up, isn't the only foreign-policy issue that will be waiting for the next president. how hillary clinton or donald will handle russia and president putin. that's next. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ seeing is believing, and that's why

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there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak," i am emma chandra. voters head to the polls in the united states to decide who will

be the next president. the first results are expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern, stocks are slightly lower his currency volatility subsides an opinion poll showing hillary clinton ahead of donald trump. meanwhile, the candidates made their final pitch to voters, votes are expected later this morning, and that's what you need to know. thank you very much. let's get to the markets very quickly. some stability in today's session, the s&p 500 futures negative about three points. dow futures -12. no big moves, the price action was yesterday, the biggest one-day pop on the s&p 500 since march. here's the action on the other asset classes, bonds on off after yesterday, yield up by one dollar-yen, it's a weaker yen session, and crude pairing the gains back. let's get to morning must-read. save post-referendum

britain needs to tread carefully. even though this revolution was bloodless and quite british, investors tend to avoid the satisfied countries undergoing coups. brits have a ringside seat that brexit of people, this far it's been unedifying spectre -- a with both sides guilty of exaggeration, half-truths, and scaremongering. joining us is john micklethwait. the tone. john: how you define to satisfied people? scaremongering? francine: the daily mail, it was shocking to see that. the headline on friday after the high cohort -- after the high court decided they needed to be a vote, and the headlines said

public enemy number one. this brought us back to germany. there were nine judges of the time before a certain man was elected saying actually, these nine judges are against democracy. oft shocked me at a lot british people was the fact that theresa may didn't jump to the rescue saying you know what, the courts need to be independent. they can decide, after all, parliament is elected. the british people want brexit, i don't see why it's such a bad thing to go to parliament. it was shocking that it took her 24 hours to release a statement saying she has the full confidence in the high court and judiciary. jonathan: i will try and take some of the drama out of it. they are trying to stop brexit from happening. prime minister made herself has kind of endorse that ahead of the vote by saying those people who argue that article 50 can only be triggered after an agreement of both houses are not standing up for democracy. they are trying to subvert it. but the government seems more complicated here. john: i think they are.

there's a parallel with clinton's e-mails, effectively behind it, you have two things going on. there definitely some people who are grabbing onto the judges because they think that's the last hope to prevent brexit, in the same way that some people are grabbing on to the clinton e-mails as the last hope of a way of stopping are getting at. but there were people making reasonably principled decisions. the judges, there hasn't been much debate about the law. the law indicates the judges are probably right, and i think the fbi director didn't have much choice other than to do what he did. the difficulty in this is you have to have independent of the political process to try and make these decisions. but they will always be colored by the political pulling and pushing. alix: the red agreement -- the rhetoric is totally insane. a recent poll found 32% that classify themselves as feeling they don't believe it will in

the u.k. really want to leave the eu. many even now, after all we've been through the weather is still the rhetoric that says you guys didn't really mean it. we were doing. that's very puzzling. i wanted to remain in on the whole, i have to admit there are more people saying we made this decision, it was a dodgy marriage and we weren't sure about it. maybe some people do want to get divorced. but the thing is going through now, let's try to make the best of it. david: isn't this a question about representative democracy? are we going to have a direct election or are we going to elect representatives? francine: i don't know john agrees with that amount. i find it very difficult for parliament to say rigs it didn't happen, let's ignore what we voted for on june 23. that seems to be impossible. but this is why you have elected representation, sue have a person saying this is the will of the people. where now, they can renegotiate and say what does brexit actually mean? and save the people still wanted

access to the signal markets, i find it far-fetched, but you see a bit of a glimmer of hope. john: there is some element of the moment of brexit being similar to the neocon movement in america. they had edelman with a were completely in charge and they assumed they had a massive popular mandate to everything. lately the same thing happened with brexit, with a of said we have a mandate just to get out. but there are quite a lot of people who voted for brexit who seem to think they can do that while they stayed in the single market and all those things. the adjusting thing is this does mean at some time it looks like parliament would have to vote on what is eventually achieved. that's an important thing. jonathan: one of the points that mark actually makes is what this could mean for investors. ituses the word to come of for investors to look at this before the process is even started, how much more complicated is this going to get? does this damage investment? we see the front page of newspapers and they are somewhat

entertaining for people outside united kingdom, but within it, if you are a business, does this harm you? i see the similarity between mark gilbert and donald trump. there's a coup going on when there isn't. for investors, you see it everywhere. copies are looking at britain peopleing -- icing five on the same position. they are not pulling things out, but they are reconsidering what they are doing over the next few years. that goes into the numbers. if this process is long and drawn out, it's tough. and that simply we fare. business people hate uncertainty. and there is a lot of uncertainty around brexit at the moment. and that's the reason why it's difficult. david: today is election day here, and brexit isn't the only foreign-policy issue their word about. as a range of issues. high on the list will be dealing with resident vladimir putin at the jockeys for position in europe and the middle east. we talked yesterday with former state department official nicholas burns, who gave us his opinion on who president putin

would like to be the president. nicholas: trump has been denigrating 80, he won't be the strong american leader in europe the europeans are accustomed to. russians, byat the their actions and words, support.com candidacy. every other european governments, david, and i have talked to a lot of them, desperately want hillary clinton reelected because they want stability. david: you actually interviewed mr. putin not too long ago. nicholas burns was saying one of the biggest issues for the next president terms of the international relations will be how he or she helps. -- helps europe deal with mr. putin. john: my impression is it's a brave man to argue with nick burns. putin's first choice is a week, divided hillary. that's a deal for him. his main point is he wants to be mr. unprintable. he was to be the guy who everyone else has to worry about moving around and since his

election day, we shouldn't push things one way or the other. but at the very least, donald trump would challenge him for the title of the world's most unprintable leader. and that is the reason why i think putin fundamentally would rather have a week, difficult hillary doesn't know what to do. he enjoyed having obama. obama has been fine. he hasn't really been prepared to push against him when he needed to. alix: the other part of the rhetoric says if you do have a trump presidency, that's going to lead to a closer and more united europe. france and germany have to come together. to have the have european army now because the u.s. is backing away. that would be a very different story for putin. different --re's a a great piece in bloomberg view today, he starts off by saying it almost sounds at times like letterman couldn't was also in the election, because we talked about him so much. when he points out is the fact maybe the system in the

u.s. doesn't work. it's been reliable compared to collisions with had in germany, france, ridley where we change governments every six months, but it puts the spotlight on the fact on both sides that you need maybe a system which is more representative, which is different, and where the elite are judged differently. david: to push back on you maybe a little bit here. it's a brave man who goes against you as well. but it's fairly clear that hillary clinton would be very pro-defense when it comes to nato and beefing that up, as opposed to donald trump who said maybe we should charge that money before going to try and defend them. his supporters are talked about the balkans being a cover for saint petersburg, so who cares about nato? i agree, there are certain things that donald trump has said and done the can only bring vladimir putin pleasure. but, that said, i think in general, putin needs to have something to react against. and most -- britain's main thing

is he has long-term objectives, but he is fundamentally an opportunist. trump my give him opportunities in some ways, but would be a harder push for him. plus, hillary, he knows exactly what he's going to get. he's going to get something slightly more hostile than obama. and that, he doesn't like. but at least he knows what he's getting. night?nl saturday coming up in the past, 22 elections the s&p has gone 15 times the day after the polls close. what's going to happen tomorrow? we discussed that next. check out the stock of bank of cut at, off by .6%, deutsche bank after the recent run-up. now deutsche bank says the stock is valued right in line with peers. now it's better valued. this is bloomberg. ♪

emma: this is "bloomberg daybreak," i am emma chandra. coming up in the next half hour, matthew hornbach, morgan stanley head of global interest rate strategy. this is bloomberg, i'm david westin. there's a cliché out there that says as goes ohio, so goes the nation. in recent years, ohio has been a good indicator of who will win the presidency. is it true this time? ,oining us as michael mckee tell us, ohio is important, but is it as important as it has been? michael: it's not quite old enough. ohio is voted 13 times in a row for the correct candidate, for the winning candidate. that's not close to the record at this point.

bellwether streaks come to an end before time since the birth of the birth of a nation, states of voted for the winter at least 10 times in a row. missouri tight ohio 13 times in a row from 1904 to 1952. ,isenhower lost the state, .2% and even 13 is in close to the ground. five states voted with the winning party 14 times in a row. the champions, nevada and new mexico. both with streaks of 16 consecutive wins. ohio and up to pick the winner this year, in 2020, 2024, and 2028 to break the record. that's very hard. ohio has been there before. --y did choose the window the winner 12 times in a row, but then didn't pick another winner until 1954. the bellwether states to watch our new mexico and nevada. with 16 wins and a lot is the champion overall. and what did they pick 16 in a row until jimmy carter lost in

his reelection bid in 1980, but the states voted for the winner nine straight times since. nevada is the one to watch as the early vote suggests that this point, from nevada, that hillary clinton has an edge and donald trump has an edge in the polls in ohio. david: past performance is no predictor. we do like to focus on ohio, but it may not be the state to watch. alix: why nevada? is the demographic makeup? the demographic makeup has shifted as people have moved to the sun belt. that may have some thing to do with it. david: what states we focused on? -- will you be focused on? michael: florida. if hillary clinton wins that, it's very tougher donald trump. and that 7:30, the state of north carolina closes. if she wins those two, it's almost impossible for him. interestingly, her husband was the last one who was declared the winner in the eastern time

zone. that happened today if she runs the table with the battleground states in the east. david: they gotten more conservative, they've gotten burned. mike mckee, thanks so much. but this time tomorrow, the markets should know who the next president will be. how will they react to a president trump or president clinton, and how long will that reaction last? initial stock market reaction doesn't tell us much about the longer-term consequences, as this bart chart shows there's initial reaction that corrects over time. joining us from washington is terry haines, ever-glory managing director and analysts. thanks for joining us today. there's an initial reaction in the marketplace, but how long is it likely to last? terry: if it's a clinton win, is likely to last for a while. it's like certainty. what you are likely to see, we think, is a rally in the equity

markets of around 2%. with a global's rally also. you are likely to see this happen for a while, with the lessening of uncertainty in the markets. that's if there is a clinton success. what a donald trump is elected? terry: if donald trump is elected, we think there's a massive reaction. the markets, it's not unthinkable, but it's a very different sort of reaction. i think you will see an immediate political reaction with republicans on the hill, particularly trying to say that what they are educated and in focusing on his economic growth trying to do what they can to bring it back, so that more certainty is understood. but the idea is baked into the markets that trump is an uncertain pick. you are likely to see that go on for quite a while. jonathan: to use your phrase, baked into the markets, what

also is big and the markets is that we have a highball -- hi vol candidate in trump and a low vol candidate and hillary clinton. does the volatility around clinton just go away if she does enter the white house? terry: i don't you goes away completely. another factor in ending the volatility is the fact that there's going to be divided government. we have in the congress, which as you all know, is as important for policymaking and markets as to the president is. it's a very closely divided congress with at least one house republican. what you're going to get is additional certainty based on that. that's all very good. there an asterisk to our call, which is that fundamentally, we are set up for policy advancement in 2017. the asterisk is continued investigation. a lot of that got taken away

with director comey's decision on monday. but there is still another pending investigation, so the prospect for volatility still remains. as we call it, and asterisk here. only if something controversial happens in that investigation does our belief that policy advancement happens in 2017 seriously is threatened. alix: let's talk about sector rotation. it shows individual sectors and how they correlate to clinton versus trump. you can see, clinton does better for consumer discretionary as well as transport, capital goods, goods and services. trump is better for insurance, banks, and drugs. a positive above zero is a positive correlation. what kind of sector rotation is left up we do get a clinton win? terry: the thing that is concerning to the markets, in my view, based on what i hear from clients, is health care will remain volatile. our call has been that health care policy and therefore,

markets, will be volatile throughout 2017. one of our core policy calls for 2017 has been that the affordable care act reform is one of the two major things that on the cards for 2017. the other being clinton and congress actions to jump for the economy. there's a lot of concern about health care policy, including drug pricing. i would expect the volatility there to continue. take us into the health care play, specifically. is it true with her trump's president or clinton is president -- whether trump is president or a clinton is president? pledgedoth parties have in one way or another to reform the affordable care act or as mrs. clinton put it recently in the debates, to improve it. , made anton, i thought remarkable departure from her campaign statements in the second and third debates by saying that she has continued to believe in the promise of your affordable care act, but there

are variety of ways needed to be improved. her husband underscore that on the trail with comments about the way the aca is administered being the craziest thing you ever saw. what you're going to get, i both, is a world where sides agree there needs to be great improvements in the aca in order to make it work. long time of policy volatility and market volatility. haines, managing director and analysts. three-month volatility of the s&p 500 signals the outcome of every residential elections as 1984. what is it telling us this time? details are next from new york on election day, this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak," i am alix steel.

it is election day in the u.s., how can we read the market he tea leavesook for -- to look for a win? when returns are negative three month out for the election, and actually bodes well for the opposition candidate. what we've seen over the last three months is a negative total return for the s&p. in december, 2008, it was a negative return and we had a candidate switch. party switch. this is the chart the donald trump like. as of the chart is one that hillary clinton like. this has to do with the you three in employment rate and when we see a shift in leadership over at the white house. columns arehe blue when there's a shift to democratic party, the red columns are when we see a shift to republican party. what we have typically seen as when unemployment rate is rising, we tend to see a party shift. in the 50's, you three was party shift.w

same thing happened in the late 60's. we saw big jump in and of one arete in the early 80's when we saw the party shift as well. and then we saw you three rate at the bottom begin to start rising when president bush was elected. you can see we had in one arete really peaking right after obama took office. that had a huge rise until then. what we know about today? you three rate is not down by a lot, 4.9%. it has stagnated over the past few implement reports. how does that vote for hillary clinton? -- bode for hillary clinton? gdp growth under different residence. this yellow line is the average for gdp currently. we are below that average. can either candidate actually help a rebounded gdp due to their policies? that's the big question. we do see policy shifts when gdp ,rowth has been moving lower but nonetheless, it's not necessarily a predictor, it's

like the big issue for either candidate. jonathan: the david -- great work. david, the problem is it's not about hard data, it's anything but. if you don't look at the hard data, i feel you. you are not really feeling this recovery. that's when the see this been planted not just in the united states, but across europe as well. david: that's been the driving force behind a lot of the election. one other piece of hard data is job approval rating for obama is that 56%. i talked to a close clinton confident earlier to set its above 50, we're in good shape. that's toi wonder if do with the candidates appreciation of barack obama. from new york, election day, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: good morning and welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this tuesday, november 8. election day in the united states. let's go to the markets. it is not dramatic. the headline is the markets treading water. negative about three points on the s&p 500. it is marginal. the readjustment has happened. yields high yesterday, lower today are much of the session. story today as we approach that 105 handle. alix: what you need to know at this hour, the voters are heading to the polls in the habit states to decide who will be the next president. the first results are expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. opinion polls showing hillary clinton ahead of donald trump, meanwhile the candidates made their final pitch to voters. both are expected to cast their votes later this morning. david: we get back to the

election now. for more, we go to our senior white house correspondent covering hillary clinton. and our senior political reporter covering donald trump. give us some insight into what these campaigns have been doing. hillary clinton's campaign, this has been all about two things, about trying to prevent donald trump rum andching her firewall seeing if she can take up some major game changing states like north carolina. the clinton campaign once hoped they could go big, arizona, utah, georgia. after the james comey controversy of the last 10 or 11 days, it became all about holding that line at 270. they have thrown all of their celebrity firepower into generating enthusiasm in the last few days. david: what is in that firewall? michigan, pennsylvania? margaret: she has to hold

pennsylvania. david: does she have to hold michigan? margaret: florida is a little different. florida, and she gets north carolina, that shuts the whole game down. >> they want to prove to their people that they can win. donald trump has been saying. david: sorry, live picture now of hillary clinton voting in new york. there she is with her husband. they are gladhanding a little bit on the way in. i suspect we know who they will be voting for. >> donald trump said he was voting for itself. >> and he is voting later today in new york city. >> he has a public school that is his voting location. david: i interrupted you. >> is trying to convince people that he can do this. he does not want them to believe the pundits that he cannot do

this because the narrative is that she is going to win. he went to five states yesterday. he said if he wins michigan, he wins this race. he is thinking that is his big pickup. when donald trump is at the podium, he is transparent. he laid it out yesterday. he said he needs michigan, and he is leading in ohio, iowa, north carolina. then he said he thinks he is doing well in pennsylvania. he believes he is leading an florida. i think that tells you where he thinks he needs to win. david: it sounds like florida in both scenarios is key. if hillary clinton wins florida, it is very hard for donald trump. if donald trump wins, then he has a shot. >> at this point it is almost a cliche, but it is always a potentially decisive state. it is hard to predict certain elements of turnout, including in this case latino turnout.

that is the big thing their eyes have been on. the fact that hillary clinton has been twice to florida within the span of a few days tells you a lot. alix: you said the donald trump campaign is trying to ignite hope and rally the troops. is there talk behind the scenes if the electoral college map comes out and hillary clinton is the winner? >> no. they are not talking about that at all. if you ask questions about that, they say he is going to win. alix: ok. [applause] -- [laughter] david: thank you. today for special election coverage starting at 5:00 p.m. eastern time with a two hour edition of with all due respect. and at 7:00 p.m. eastern, our coverage continues with david

gura and megan murphy. i will be up sometime after midnight on bloomberg tv. trying toave been figure out what a clinton or donald trump when will mean for the 10 year treasury markets. suisse see acredit drop in yields if donald trump becomes president. joining us now is lisa rahbari.z and ibrahim i want to begin with you. short-term sentiment that will drive the intraday move tomorrow and then the medium term and longer-term, to? what does that mean for the treasury market? >> i think the distinction is important. in the case of a donald trump victory, i think there will be a push down across the full yield

curve in the u.s. over time, that picture could reverse. that is clearly on the expectation that a donald trump victory goodly to more of a physical -- could lead to more of a fiscal boost. jonathan: lisa, arguably it is easier to predict the short-term sentiment moves for the candidates. the medium term and long-term will be dominated not on their policies but whether or not they can get them and limited. what are their views a stuff that? lisa: it does not just depend on who wins, it also depends on congress. if donald trump wins, but the congress goes to democrats, it will be hard for him to get his physical plans -- fiscal plans through. if hillary clinton wins and the republicans hold congress, it will be really hard for her to get her plans through.

we saw some china growth continuing to slow. that affects the u.s. economy and the picture for longer-term yields. jonathan: japan actually issued a 10 year bond today. negative six basis points. if we are going to talk about the treasury market, we should talk about elsewhere, too. we just heard from one of our reporters that said the donald trump campaign is not even planning for a loss, they don't have a contingency plan. are we going for the 2000 i get where we saw the 10 year yield go up 75 basis points over the year when we could not now down a president? >> the most dramatic scenario for the markets and the economy will be when the uncertainty does not get resolved today or tomorrow morning. just having that cloud of uncertainty lifted by itself will be supported for the the marketsmakes

move on. as soon as the election is over, people will focus on other issues. the only thing that could present -- prevent that would be a non-close of result. we heard that we were going to continue that conversation once we have the president, but we also have japan issuing their debt on negative six basis points. does that cap yields? >> that is the big question. you have china and japan both selling foreign-currency reserves. at the same time you have private investors from japan and china pilot now money that they are taking out of that country and putting it into the u.s. treasury. it is a difficult dynamic and important one that will determine what happens with u.s. treasuries. it is unclear how much u.s.

presidential candidates in the winter can change the backdrop of slow global growth. jonathan: great to have you with us. thank you. ebrahim rahbari will stick with us. let's get you up-to-date on that headlines outside the business world. >> in iraq, kurdish forces are rattling islamic state forces as part of the offensive and at recapturing iraq's second-largest city. troops have discovered a mass grave with hundreds of people believed to be killed by islamic state forces. authorities say the suspects focus on recruiting young muslims and germany and raise money to send them to syria to join up with islamic militants. the supreme court has cleared the way for ferdinand marcos to be moved to the philippine national hero cemetery.

he was accused of massive human rights violations. the current president has stabbed himself as a straw man. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you. u.s. equity futures a little soccer today. here is the downside, focusing -- on cvs.imates 2017 guidance was way under consensus. it is expected to lose a lot of money on retail prescriptions. that was a dark cloud for the company. i want to take a look at valeant. that is right around the lows of the free market, cutting their 2016 forecast after the third quarter cells short. that has to do with a failing

division, their irritable bowel syndrome drug. they are hammered on a couple of sides. hearsts is getting -- is getting pounded today. the issue was they had to partly readjusted value of their rental cars that ended up hurting and the third quarter. forecasts continue to get cut. jonathan: the broader market is pretty much treading water. coming up, one etf is seeing major outflows ahead of the u.s. election. that is next. committee national national finance chairman joins us from new york on election day. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city, this is "bloomberg daybreak." let's get a check of the markets for you. about one hour 16 from the cash of them. marginally down on the s&p 500. solids not back yesterday on the s&p 500 yesterday. the biggest one-day pop higher. the bond market. yields a little lower. down one basis point on the u.s. 10 year. that is what the treasury is doing with three-year notes. a little surprised coming into the market at an interesting

time. alix: indeed. markets, the early reagan is investors are nervous. take a look at the bloomberg. this is a look at the popular emerging market etf. millions withdrew 750 from that etf last week. joining us is ebrahim rahbari. the real question is, what emerging market besides mexico, is most at risk if we see a donald trump victory today? ebrahim: there are a few candidates. areone we discussed most korea and brazil for very different reasons. korea being a very open trading nation and a shift away from localization while in the case of brazil it is for completely different reasons. it has been very popular as a long position. valuation is life people are a

little concerned about the reaction brazil may have to a potential donald trump retreat on the market. -- victory on the market. alix: hillary clinton does have some protectionist rhetoric in her speeches as well. what are the indications for emerging markets on her victory? ebrahim: in general we have to be somewhat cautious from drawing too much from the campaign rhetoric. the minimum we know that is under either candidate will not see a big for localization agenda. -- liberalization agenda. minimum, we think those large initiatives like tpp are not likely to move under either presidency. jonathan: talk to me about the short-term and how this market is set up ahead of tomorrow's to escapey is going

that in the em space, so tell me how we are positioned 24 hours away. ebrahim: the general sense is there is not that much positioning. there has been a lot of uncertainty ahead of the outcome. undoubtedly you're going to have a reaction. i think the dynamic over the last two days have told us what will happen. em is sensitive to the election results. unless we see additional information after the election, a lot of these affects will fade. we will move on to other topics. as transformative as some have described it to be, i think that is open at this stage. david: look at it from the other way around. let's assume that hillary clinton does in fact win. what is the likelihood that there's a lot of cash sitting on

the sidelines that will come into emerging markets? ebrahim: there is a case to be not just hillary clinton would win, but the uncertainty goes way, that would open some floodgates for people to take on risk again, and i think emerging markets are an obvious conduit, although it has been popular over the last few months. alix: what we talk about next dimension, this will give us a clue. the fed president charlie evans in new york city saying that he does not think it is a crime if the fed overshoots inflation. he is worried about inflation estimates. is this the conversation we will be having next week? will it be about love expectations? ebrahim: that is a major part of the conversation. i think that that is clearly gearing up towards another rate hike. i don't think it will be a dominant topic for this meeting. but it will be in 2017.

when you think about after this election, 2017 and the degree to which inflation will pick up in 2017 or rates will go up faster than what markets are pressing in, that seems to be obvious for us. jonathan: if you end up with resident donald trump, the data between now and december will not change. the only thing that will change is where the market is. how does the fed avoid a rate hike with that as a backdrop? think they will be looking primarily at the market reaction to make up their mind whether there will be a shock to the economic outlook after the election. what it will take for them to ship in december not to hike will be market volatility and risk off, if you like. if that is the case, we will not see a rate hike in december. jonathan: great to have you with us. up, could donald trump's

presidency be the next brexit? what's a gopat victory will need here and in the rest of the world. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: is the u.s. election on path to be the next brexit? donald trump seems to think that. mr. trump: this is going to be brexit plus. this will be brexit times five. this will be brexit times 10. this will be brexit times 50. this will be brexit plus, pllu s, plus. jonathan: a lot of brexit. with me now is guy johnson. guy: i thought i was going to get away from brexit. jonathan: you can do a word count on the amount of mentions of donald trump and brexit over

the last several weeks, it is now at a high. what do you hear and what are people saying? is saying herump thinks this will be a political surprise. nobody predicted brexit. the financial markets did not see it coming. what donald trump is saying is that you have got this one wrong. and it will be on a bigger scale. that is what he is signaling. he is telling the financial markets to start pricing is in. jonathan: what is interesting is the stock price and dollar-yen are almost exactly where they were before brexit. get the risks, it was selling stocks. i did not hear many people say before the brexit to buy the ftse, because the currency got hammered. now they are saying about a donald trump presidency, the

dollar will get hammered, but sell stocks. guy: that is because it is a risk off trade. that is the most obvious place to go. it is such a subtle thing. it will be interesting to see how far the market goes from knee-jerk to rationalization. if you look at the last 24 hours. look at the homeland investment tax. that brought money back into the country which was invested into dividends and buybacks. jonathan: if you get a corporate tax cuts and repatriation of money abroad, it will not be invested, it will be used for dividends? guy: that is what is going to happen. there have been studies on this. that is exactly what happens. qe effectively gets used to buy into the market. coming back to brexit, that was the bit people do not talk

about. they should have done. they saw what happened with the pound. they knew what the rationalization was. i think this is more complicated because of the nature of the way that the u.s. investment market is seen globally as a reserve status. if you look at the risk reverses on the pound, you are not seeing the same thing on the dollar. i don't think you can draw the same conclusion that what happened with brexit could ultimately happen here. jonathan: it seems to me that there is a short-term bias, the bias which is a risk on candidate and a risk off candidate. i'm not sure how that actually plays out and if it stays consistent. short-term, you can tell what will happen to stocks and bonds. medium-term, we don't know if the policies will become reality. that is not clear. guy: if you look at what they fiscal story is going to be, you don't know.

if you look at the data after brexit, the data actually got better. jonathan: i wonder how the fed will deal with that. guy johnson. david weston, 2:30 a.m., he will still be up watching tv. the man does not sleep. david: when you are on, i am always watching. i cannot stop. henry munoz joins us to talk about the importance of minority voters to the hillary clinton campaign. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak. here is what you need to know at this hour. voters will have to the polls to

decide who will be the next president. the first results are expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. opinion polls show hillary clinton clinton ahead of donald trump. it are clinton cast her vote at her this hour home in new york. donald trump is expected to about later today in new york city. jonathan: let's get to the markets story. we are up by four points on the s&p 500. 20 points on the dow. yields were higher yesterday, down by one basis point in today's session. unchanged right now. the dollar-yen, it is a soccer store. a third of 1%. the price action was last week. today we are water ahead of the big one. alix: the markets are doing their best to predict the results, and we're discussing

what a clinton victory or a donald trump entry will mean. the banks see a donald trump victory triggering a selloff. deanng us now is curnutt's, ceo of macro risk advisors. the --he base case for is for clinton to win the electoral college. up 5% orthat s&p going 2%? rise we think the s&p will marginally, but it is the volatility that will come out of the market. there's plenty of room for that. alix: there's something interesting happening in the curve. if we look at the bloomberg, this is the vix versus the s&p. the higher a gets the more volatility you see in the short term. the other place you see the spike in the curve over here and

right around here is a decline in the s&p. are we setting ourselves up for something like that? dean: i think we can learn a lot from the curve. this is when the front part of the curve gets hire from implied volatility than the back part. that is rare. that happens when markets get quite uncertain. that is one volatility except. up.hen volatility picks markets are not moving around. it is all risk premium. people have been forced to confront the possibility of a donald trump victory. they have had to buy hedges. if you are forced to sell these, and your customers are asking you to buy this options, on the potential that you could be wrong, you are forced to raise

the price because you could lose your job if donald trump wins and you get a massive move in the markets. jonathan: if you're taking front month vix as your head, then the chart makes sense. you are doing it because there is no election not because you think one or the other is going to win, but precisely because there is an election. as a risk manager, you have to hedge this risk. we talk about talents. we talk about 5% probability. donald trump has a 30% or 40% probability of winning. the potential for disruption is high. that is too high the risk to ignore. you can draw a lot of analogues to brexit. brexit actually occurred and you had a decline in volatility. you had some small to us days afterwards. with a donald trump when, he

will. but volatility will come out of the market based on the fact that the event has come and gone. david: isn't there a fundamental difference? you were talking about a constitutional change in the european union. even with donald trump, we still have the senate and the house and a process of government. the risk is not nearly as great as it was with exit, is it? these are days that are certain on the calendar. they come and go. you folks are focused on option prices. option prices also have a date set on the calendar. they expire. you can learn a lot by pricing options that expire before or after the election. jonathan: we have been exploring this short-term intimate story and the longer-term fundamental story. in brexit, a lot of people got the fallout wrong.

they were saying sell stocks. that was not the trade. that lasted two days. could they be wrong this time as well? the risk on candidate may be the sentiment for a couple days, but after that? dean: there is a real economy. what are the fundamentals, we have low growth and inflation. we have a watchful fed. but also agreeing that we will not see much more after december. we have a painful decision not to invest. the price of safety is very difficult to absorb. people have to invest in stocks. the potential that that narrative ultimately reemerges, which is you have to be in something that makes money because the cost of bonds, sovereign debt is so high, but the narrative of being in this low growth and stop running environment emerges on either a donald trump or hillary clinton victory. alix: that has been the story

the last few years. think you very much. dean curnutt's. tonight, the viewer guide to the u.s. election tonight. the power of the latino vote. democratic national committee finance chair henry munoz will join us to talk about the importance of the minority vote to the hillary clinton campaign. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steele. in the next hour we will be speaking with matthew hornbach.

stanley global interest rate strategy. david: we will take you into what to watch this evening. we will start with a map of the united states. it is a special map. you see blue states and red states. the difference between those is based on real clear politics polling where there is more than five points of difference in the polls. if those hold up, we start out the evening with the clinton at 203 and donald trump at 163 electoral votes. the question is what happens in the yellow states. some of them are very big. florida, 58. pennsylvania, 40. these will be clinica -- critical throughout the evening. now we go to those tossup states. we take poll closings as a 7:00

p.m. and 7:30 p.m., georgia his first. with new hampshire. 7:00 a.m. is when the polls close, but that does not mean they can call the election then. that depends on how wide the spread is between the exit polls. that is less than five, we cannot hold them. after this we have florida and massachusetts and maine. that is the earliest any of those states could be called. if we cannot get a result by 8:00 p.m. eastern time, then we go to the western states. we have nevada, arizona, mexico, iowa. nevada is not until 10:00. the others are at 9:00 in the evening. it depends on what happens in the east. well quite possible that after florida has closed that we will not have the result because we will be counting those

results. that is what happened in 2000. mike mckee, you and i have been through this before. why is florida so difficult? mike: it is one of those states that has a very next voting public. you have a hispanic population that could play a very big role in this election. they are divided on their issues, not necessarily the candidates. you have the cubans in miami not like obama administration policy. you have others who have been offended by donald trump. it was not just 2000. in 2012, florida was never called on election day because it was so close. it did not factor into the final decision. they didn't even have those primitive old ballots. mike: we don't want that again. david: florida is a tossup in the polling as well.

a .2% difference for hillary clinton. how late could it be before we have a sense of florida? mike: we could go well into tomorrow. we could have the same situation from 2004. the early votes in florida favored democrats by a very small margin. the remaining number of people who come out to vote, is it republicans will be motivated to vote for donald trump, or does hillary clinton drive that latino vote into the polls today and pick up some ground? david: to be clear, florida is asymmetric. if hillary clinton wins florida, it will be hard for donald trump. on the other hand, she could lose lord up and still win the election. is howhat is interesting money swing states are in the eastern time zone. if you look at north carolina, pennsylvania, new hampshire, all of those states slightly favors hillary clinton. if she runs the table with

those, it is very hard for donald trump to find a path even as he moves west. we could see this and early enough that the networks want to call it that we could all get a good nights sleep. it will depend on those swing states and how big the margin is. david: that networks are making a lot of noise about being cautious. these states, the margin is slightly burnt hillary clinton, but very close. within the margin of error. david: the networks are awfully anxious i can tell you. mike mckee, bloomberg's economics and politics editor. alix: getting out the vote. including latino voters and millennials. according to the pew research center, millennials makeup 44% of the tino eligible voters. -- latino eligible voters. a very important group in this election. jenna has now is henry munoz, an informal adviser to the clinton

campaign on the tino -- latino turnout. tell us what you're going to do to get this demographic turnout high? henry: we went to where the people were. we talk to them. we used social media and spanish-language media. over the course of the last several days you have seen us knocking on doors, calling people, having voted to voter contact, 20 million voter to voter contacts, 8.9 million doors knocked on. a combination of the way we have always done it and new technology. difference between now and 2012? henry: a surge. alix: can you quantify it? be 2: i think there will million more latino voters than last election. david: that's will swing some states, but other states were

already going for it are anyway. you can make a difference in florida. in north carolina, the indication is that blacks are not coming out as much as they did in 2012. can the hispanics in florida make up for the difference that hillary clinton is seeing in in other states? you will see is a coalition of people not only in florida but also other states like nevada and arizona, and a key state like north carolina, that at the end of the day will deliver those states to hillary clinton. you think hillary clinton will get the same support from the african-american community in north carolina as president obama did? henry: let's look at the fact that president obama is the first african-american president of the country. david: exactly. henry: they have campaigned

together. i think you will on this inction day great enthusiasm the african-american community, and at the end of the day i think we will win over carolina. >> the hispanic vote has been called the sleeping giant years. it has not come out. is this being driven by donald trump and the fact that people are unhappy about what he has said about hispanics and latinos, or is this the your groups that will be part of the voting coalition in the future? henry: donald trump probably built the wall today. it is the wall of latino voters that will keep them away from the white house. this has been a slow, consistent building of not only the latino demographic, but also the issues that are important to our community. mike: you receive the same numbers voting in 2020 and 2018? henry: people have this idea

that in the off year elections, we do not both. what you are owing to begin to see is not only a redoubling percentage of voters, and also this is an election where the issues that are important to our community are front and center. david: we have a chart that shows the growth of eligible voters as opposed to actual voters. what you see in the latino community is a growing gap. is that what your numbers show you? henry: our numbers show us an amazing growth in the number of latinos who are registering to vote. while there are more that are eligible, you also have to give credit to the community for registering. not only against donald trump, but they are for secretary clinton. alix: to jump on mike's point, i was reading some stories out of nevada. you could go to certain turn of the vote campaigns and would not

even see a hillary sign. all you will see is no-trump. you see a turnout against donald trump and not for hillary clinton. henry: particularly with millennial voters, there has been an educational process. people forget what hillary clinton has stood for in the latino community for many years. most of those voters were not even alive. when you look at the number of people organizing on her behalf, those 20 million voter to vote or contacts. 8.9 million phone calls over the last three days. that's the kind of strategy hillary clinton began her organizing career with. i think we need to wait until the end of the day. we are enthusiastic about what the latino community will do, not only against donald trump, but voting for secretary clinton. david: you will have access to data that we will not have. what will you be most focused on? henry: that's latino millennial

voters voted for the clinton and that we are the margin of victory in key battleground states. david: thank you very much. henry munoz. time now for other stories making headlines at this hour. here is emma chandra. emma: thank you. valeant has cut their annual forecast after posting a third quarter lost. became the focus of outrage over high drug prices in the u.s. last year. that drove their stock down from their highs in 2015. a forecast for next year that is lower than expected for cvs. they predicted results for the rest of the year will come in below estimates. the sale of prescription drugs has been slowing down. consumers rushed to buy small

engined vehicles before a tax expires at big of the year. that tax rate may be extended. that is your bloomberg business flash. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you. what stock should investors and if donald trump wins the u.s. presidency. we will break that down next. this is off by over 4%. net cord or rose 3% in the fourth quarter. they did have a mess on earnings. gross margins missed. is a lot of pressure for this homebuilder. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up today, the main story in the united states is the election. there are a few other events today.

eastern, the u.s. is set to issue $20 billion. bank of chicago president will speak here in new york. auction, $24 again billion of 1 -- three-year notes. this is coming on a volatile day. david: interesting timing i will say. time now for the battle of the charts. francine lacqua has come all the way over from london to challenge alix steel. you get to go first. francine: this is my chart. i went around in circles thinking should i look at vix? i think this shows both stories. bank, a note by deutsche we take 15 stocks in etf's that would win if donald trump wins. and we selected 15 stocks and

etf's that would gain if hillary clinton wins. a have new polls pointing to clinton win in the last few days. however, these have not moved that much. i don't know if it is already priced in or is there concern about policy. we have some of the health care's in the clinton camp. if you look at brexit, people want to hedge. people want hillary to win but what if she does not. [crosstalk] see a little can caution. just ahead. alix: if we look at the base, it is hillary is going to win, but, dot dot dot. i'm not talking about anything that has to do with the election. david: oh no. the seniorlooking at

loan officer survey. they go to the bank and see what their lending standards are for different areas of the economy. we got back yesterday. three things stood out to me. the banks are tightening lending standards when it comes to commercial real estate, multi family landed on it, and nonfarm. see tighter lending standards which is up from 4% last year in october. we so that rising for construction and land development. 18% for nonfarm residential loans. to see how much that is increased in the last few months. part of that is good. people are worried about the bubbling commercial real estate. this could be a good thing or some sort of headwind if he gets too tight and you cannot grow. os.ove sl

david: if you were the new president, you would not want to hear about this in your transition. alix: or do you if there is too much money in the real estate market. this might not be a bad thing. david: can we have a tie? alix: yes. david: ok. it is a great time. two great charts. two great people. jonathan: friendship wins. yields will return to 3% or 5%. morgan stanley head of global interest rate strategy will join us on the u.s. election. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." ferro on this election day and the united states. 30 minutes until futures open. nine straight days, we snapped the longest winning streak since 1980 yesterday. it is over. switch out the board. unchanged inay today's session. dollar/yen 1.04. needed to know. voters had it to the polls in the united days to decide will be the next president. the results are expected at 7:00 p.m. eastern. opinion polls show hillary clinton is slightly ahead of donald trump. the candidate to make their final pitch to voters. clinton have cast her vote in

chappaqua, new york and donald trump will in manhattan. we want to-- david: turn to the person who has guided us by the hand, megan murphy. take us home here. is it all about florida or is that too simple? megan: it is all about florida unless we see some surprise. say pennsylvania. i can say this -- when we look at the map and what is shaping up, we talk about the latino surge in nevada, it will be hard for him to win florida. vote notould america as high as the clinton campaign was hoping for. we could see a wobbly election night if we see split in the early races between north carolina or virginia. will it come down to florida, it will? david: will it be a late night?

historically, the call around 11:00 or 12:00 especially areas.an we are counting around philadelphia, miami, areas. dade that will take time. this crucial senate ballot, not too late of the night. it comes down to a tight election in florida. what is the recount situation? can anybody ask for a recount? megan: you can ask for a recount if there is irregularities. we know the candidates have amassed hundreds of lawyers. one thing i would caution is as you said, if the gap is too wide especially at the electoral college level, the map, there is no ability. i think he will concede like a gentleman.

we should see what he says tonight. if he sees it is a clear victory for hillary clinton, he will graciously walk away. we will see. your: thank you for all of help. megan murphy our bloomberg washington bureau chief. alix: how the elections are moving markets area joe weisenthal with us. i wanted to start with the dollar/yen. yen volatility has surged. it illustrates by how much. right around here is where we were at brexit level. bitt there, yes, a little soft. within certain pockets, you are looking at yen volatility around brexit. guest: people are having brexit flashbacks. nobody wants to get caught short one potential trouble victory -- trump victory. many said it are trying to hedge

against surprise outcomes. and remember what happened in john. jonathan: getting something wrong is another. you were surprised by the does vision of the u.k. to leave the u.k., specifically on equity. have we learned that lesson? joe: it is remarkable how on the equity side, things recovered after the brexit vote. that tonight, we got a massive plunge against risk assets. a couple of days later or by the following week, it was completely raised. people can say, i read all these strategists' notes and they have their picks, you will probably get a knee-jerk thing. or expressednows with cover debt what the will do especially under each scenario is talking nonsense. alix: and the rhetoric, if we see the yen surge, that is an

opportunity to sell. how will they take advantage over the position? what we are seeing is everybody has a layered plan. in the immediate aftermath, if there is a trump presidency, all of the safe havens rallying. and you know change their position. tomorrow,t happens what is the next big event? we have the sad. -- fed. lananh: if clinton wins, the market is positioned if she wins. not a big move in terms of currency prices and things will a middling moved to the federal reserve. everybody will look straight to the said bell and if it will hike and get over this immediate hurdle. jonathan: the politics never data to, they wanted pull the trigger.

that's what they are waiting for. just in case a little bit nervous. lananh: made a difference. jonathan: nothing to do with the presidential election. it wase talked about spiking around 20. you are looking at traders betting for the vix to decline. closedion versus interest and it has been surging. you can talk about you want to buy the vix, people are selling. they think it is going to happen. the defining aspect of this pre-election period is everybody from political pundits to market pundits thinking clinton is probably going to win. it is like the dominant seeing. we have this nine days selloff but not dramatic. the perfect kind of halfhearted , dead saliva little bit

sell off a little bit but do not selloff totally. nobody confident in everything. unusualst like such an election, no high conviction anywhere. vix is rising but maybe more people are betting at will go down. the perfect characterization. message, i will not reveal his name, he uses colorful language for he said compared to brexit, you do not know how to price risk. you will go to cash. the conversation around this table is the amount of cash on the sideline. you look at the cash allocations of by bank of america/merrill lynch poll, you move to fed. it will say to a manager to keep the cash pile. joe: one thing that deserves to get more attention because everybody is paying attention to the election is how good the

international data has been, one of the reasons the fed did not move. chinese survey looking really good. for the last pmi's month, decent pricing data. made is an argument to be that when the smoke clears, if it does, people will say the world is not that bad. jonathan: lananh, thank you. joe, thank you. that wraps up the market conversation. tune in later starting at 5:00 with a two-hour edition of "with all due respect." coverage through the night with david gura and megan murphy. the news with emma chandra. emma: theresa may said she will try to strengthen the u.k.'s relation with the u.s. no matter who is president. she says she will call whoever

wins today's election as soon as possible as she holds at that one day the lecture will be more "calm." in mosul..k. -- isis troops south of mosul have discovered a mass grave filled with about 100 people. orlando, florida is buying pulse nightclub for more than $2 million. the deadliest -- it is the site of the deadliest mass shooting in the united states history. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 121 countries, i am emma chandra. election tuesday. here is where we trade. futures down by about five points. we had at the monster rally

yesterday, a little bit of softness. not a lot of positioning. the dollar goes nowhere. are individual movers still going on earnings. we want to break them down. up 4%.ne opentable purchased by 36%. however, its results were higher than estimates, earnings not as bad as some expected. cvs, valeant are big. loses down by 16% in may 40 million prescriptions next isr and lowered its forecast way below estimates. valeant coming out earlier cutting its forecast as well. also another write-down. about $1 billion mostly on a drug.f its stomach some revisions in 2016 and 27, it appears to build the

downside. david: federal federal reserve chairman alan greenspan told us he yields on the 10 year code go up as much as 5%. morgan stanley agreed? we will find out. find out our guest tomorrow with election results from today. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: this is "bloomberg daybreak." what will and clinton -- clinton or trump mean? the 10 year treasury, a rising young -- yield if clinton wins.

becomes yields if trump president. joining us is matthew hornbach, head of global interest rate strategy. great to have you. the question we have asked throughout the the last 2.5 hours, the short-term story with the treasury which will be based on sentiment and the next 24-48 hours. draw a distinction at what we should be looking for. mr. hornbach: thank you for having me on. what we are seeing here among reticence to invest ahead of a larger risk event for global macro markets. our investors think have gotten money to put to work not only in government bonds but other assets across the spectrum. we are expecting people to come back after we have certainty as to who will be the next president and who will control both houses of congress. for the near term, once we

figure out who our next president will be and who was going to control both houses of congress, you're going to see money come back into the government bond markets. we expect yields over the short term to push lower. the degree to which he yields go lower is going to depend on the composition of the congress and who will be our next president of the united states. david: on the one hand you have hillary clinton, people will come back. on the other hand, people think the fed will raise rates if clinton is the president. how do you balance? the federal: from reserve's perspective, they will focus on the financial conditions of which is this economy is growing. to the extent we get an outcome today that since financial conditions tighter, then the markets are currently priced for, guess what, the fed will

have heavy lifting to do and comeesting debates december meeting. to the extent financial markets come through this without too much problems, i would expect the federal reserve and we and morgan stanley expect the federal reserve to go ahead hike interest rates in december. alix: your tenure bond call is up. -- 10 year bond call is up. guest who said "a hillary clinton win tuesday will probably send the 10 year bond to 2.6% in part because the fed will be able to hike faster." can you debunk? fed will be: the focused on the u.s. economy and ats is an economy growing 1.5 percent. if you look at the last of gdp report, even though the headline number was 2%, underlying domestic demand was running

1.4%. that is not exactly an economy that will allow the fed to hike 2, 3, or 4 times. under the hood, very hard for the fed to hike is that much. 2016 andave seen in 2015 and 2014 the evolution of u.s. treasury yields depends on what is happening within the united states and outside of the united states. you would have to have a very strong forecast for global growth to get the 10 year battle level of 2.6%. we do not see that happening. jonathan: over in japan overnight, the 10 year fail since 2014.fell the question i want to ask, on a significant day politically not just this economy but the global economy, are we overemphasizing

the ability of the next president to do something fundamental for the economy? and the significance of what they need for each asset class going forward from here? look, you bring up a very good point here. the system of checks and balances we have in the united states is one that prevents runaway policymaking. our expectation here is that we are going to have a divided government come january 1. a s scenario where we have divided government, it makes it economyllenging for altering policies to be put in place particularly on the fiscal side. we are looking for the government bond market to reflect our base case scenario which is divided government and one we think will make it more difficult for the type of fiscal deficit spending you wouldn't need to send he higher.

we do not see it happening. alix: where along the curve provides the most value? mr. hornbach: the best place is the belly of the yield, we are focused on the seven year maturity points. over the longer term because yields are so low, if you're look to maximize total return, the best place is the long been yield -- long end. we would can -- we would expect if for its continued to flatten. alex matthew hornbach, thank you -- alix: matthew hornbach, thank you for joining us. what about a key committee chairmanship postelection? the ones that that's what matter most to wall street. that is news corp. up slightly in the premarket. .usiness is stabilizing digital revenue rose 24% of their total revenue. first-quarter sales beating

estimates, moving higher over 30 -- over 3%. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: the focus on the race between donald trump and hillary clinton, investors are watching what will happen in congress. matter committees that most. while us through the positions. michael: what matters is who controls the senate because of they will be in charge with one exception, that is senate banking. it will matter who is in charge of but will not be richard shelby who has been the chairman for the last six years because republicans have a six-year term limit. we're going to see ohio's sherrod brown info that the democrat senate or we will see

mike crapo. this is the committee that approved fed nominees and the to doan has been loathed that and what happened dodd-frank reform. you have to watch to see who is in charge. side, nopublican change in financial services because probably the republicans could retain control of the house maxine waters is ranking. after banking, another committee that matters most legislatively but no change, brady will run ways and means. that is where tax bills originate. if we had tax reform, it has to start. then the senate finance the chairman will probably remain but if the democrats take over, ron wy den is the man to watch.

jonathan: i've been looking at the board of governors. those seats will remain for a long time to come? shelby: we know richard did not want to appoint any republican -- any democrats to the committee. he blocked a nobel prize winner, peter diamond, from taking a seat on the fed and has not acted on the 2 nominees the president put forward. whether sherrod brown would move them forward, probably he would and we will get nominees. we do not know if it is the 2 that would be nominated. david: what about health care? it is something a lot of people will talk about. michael: that's will be an interesting one to watch. the current chairman health and education labor committee and if he is no longer in charge, we do

not know. patty murray is the ranking member but she could take the spot on appropriations. everybody wants to build appropriations committee because you get huge campaign contributions. she might want to do that. she will be the point person. judiciary is one everybody wants to watch. not only immigration but the supreme court going through on the senate side. it will be interesting to see who controls the senate. a lot of what happens will be determined. alix: what happens if we are gridlocked? what will be the narrative tomorrow? michael: a tie? alix: no change for congress and clinton in the white house. if the: if clinton's -- republicans are charged, real gridlock. we may not know until december 10. there to do for the senate in louisiana and the top 2 will go

to a runoff. if we are that close, we may have to wait until december 10. jonathan: i thought british, -- elections were complicated. great to have you with us. day, full the election coverage. we are 4 minutes away. markets look like this. we tread water. by six points. doubt futures -31. other asset classes. unchanged. dollar/yen up 0.3%. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am jonathan ferro. this is how the stage is set as we start the trading day.

future is down by 32 points. s&p 500 futures down by about 0.3%. the bell tolls, switch out the board. classes. the asset how we tread on the u.s. 10 year. of yesterday by five basis points, unchanged today. it is a weaker story. a stronger dollar. as of the dollar comes in, the core relation. down by 0.75%. the markets open into outlook still. alix: election day on this tuesday. stocks pretty much go nowhere. 0.5% in theown only last -- and during the last trading 10 days despite the

nine-day losing strike, the worst since 1980. not a lot of damage has been done. not a lot of softness. individually, there are a lot of stocks moving to the downside on earnings. hertz,hurts, pummeled -- pummeled by 41%. is/full-year estimates by 33% full-yearslashed estimates by 33%. down 27%, missing lower estimates is one main. kindred healthcare getting pummeled by 32%, cut full-year estimates and a surprise announcement it would exit field of nursing business. individual earnings hurting individual stocks. the question is what happens tomorrow for the s&p? what kind of rally or selloff do we see?

a actually might not make difference. this chart shows normally a for: -- four-six quarters after a presidential election. bill clinton's term had the biggest, rising 210%. 167%.s rally about that next president in close was republican ronald reagan, that rally what 118% during his eight years as president. the idea is do not worry what happened in the short term. quarter rally that could determine what happens over the s&p. jonathan: alix steel making it sounding so easy. at the to jeremy siegel wharton school of business. great to have you with us. your case is no selloff that matter who is elected.

jeremy: i definitely think there would be a short run selloff pretty severe if trump was elected. that would go against the market expectations. not welcome by the risk markets. elected, ire to be would expect a big downward , on the equitysk markets, that is an opportunity. , one thing we should remember is that neither of our candidates is a marxist or a hugo shot best socialist -- x chavez socialist. they were all believe in free markets. we are not going and a severe direction. and the short run, definitely. we saw what happened yesterday when clinton's odds went up

after the fbi restatement. what -- is up for grabs. ,e may not know in 24 hours actually, by this time tomorrow. that is the one that has the markets certainly more on edge right now. i want you to walk me through specifically why it would be a buying opportunity fundamentally from a company's perspective and accept perspective. what the dollar be supportive that it would fuel u.s. equity? jeremy: first of all -- there is electedon that if trump , does he have congress behind him? i would say no. -- younot unilaterally

have to have some executive orders on trade by unilaterally dismantle nafta or many other trade agreements. he would have to go to congress which will be very moderating, very skeptical. by the way, it appears if he should get an upset victory, i would pretty well say the senate would be republican and the house is expected to be republican in all three would be republican. he certainly is not going to get nch on his policy. i would expect the dollar to decline. a lot of nervousness abroad. brexit.hat with the what happened was the panel to declined. the fueled the ftse because competitive position of the u.k. industries actually did improve. if the dollar declines, that is not bad for u.s. stocks at all.

if the gop controls congress, lower taxes, lowers capital taxes and a break on his more radical plans, i do not see it as certainly a disaster for the u.s. economy. we're beginning a new presidency. let's go back over the past eight years. it would not have predicted would be where it is today. is there prospect or the next president to continue that run? or has it run its course? jeremy: do not forget it -- 80 crisis,o, the financial the market hit its lowest margin night. the worst a bear market in 75 years. in my view, one of the most undervalued. marketsour huge bull has basically unwound a lot of that bear market.

we have gone further than that. slightly high valuations, not extraordinarily high valuations, slightly high .iven our historical relative low interest rates, i think of the fed is hiking in december, but at the hikes are going to be far in between. low interest rate environment will persist for a long time in the future. basically, that would be favorable for stocks. we cannot get the board work that we have had for the past seven years from that bear market position. what kind of returns can we get? much more modest returns. i was a little disappointed in forward guidance, fairly well on third quarter. forward guidance was more cautious than i hoped for until the fed's hike is out of the way and when the markets see if we

can absorb it, a lot of uncertainty. , gop controlss congress, i do see an upward tilt toward the end of the year possible. bull run is alix: let's talk about valuation. single valuation metric except for one shows the stocks are overvalued. the one you reference was the relative by equation of stocks to bonds. why is that the right metric when bank of america said the others are a record highs? jeremy: the right metric to look at because -- the world's largest asset class. it is the benchmark. one of the fundamentals that we learned finances, all are discounted. it is very fundamental. where else can you go? we had an aep on the markets where you could get her to

percent on treasury bonds and we understand why when the competition is so small. it is the most relevant measure not just on absolute basis but what are your other choices? a look at commercial real estate , it is extraordinarily high. a question of where are you going to put your money? we live in a slow growth environment, low interest rate environment and therefore, everything have to be price relative. jonathan: the benchmark is overpriced? i do think interest rates will creep up and we will not have a crash. at 180 and 10 year if the economy does well next year, we will see it at 250. that is not good for a long-term bondholders, not a crash. , let me ask the following question for investors

-- if in the economy is going to celebrate next year and inflation and an upward course, where would you rather be, stocks or bonds? hands down situation. in exact case, i want to be in equities. maybe a downward adjustment but earnings and the gdp will be grown the better. relative to that, equities are going to be the choice. david: you are right. very specific question about the possibility hillary clinton presidency. she may specific proposal about a longer-term vision for corporate america, capital gains tax, changing, graduated tax is that you have to hold at six years for 20%. and buybacks. what effect would those have on the stock market? jeremy: we should ask of the question, what chance at all

will that to be enacted in a republican congress? unless democrats take the house, , really improbable, no way hillary clinton's policies on taxes can ever be passed. i do not support them to begin with. it is more punitive against capital. hike underg capital the obama administration, raising capital gains and dividends and we do not need anymore. i am comforted in the fact i do not anger there is any possibility of that happening. david: that jeremy siegel, wharton school professor of finance. great to have them with us. in later forune our special election coverage at hour edition of "with all due respect the bank coverage can -- "with all due respect." coverage will continue with david gura.

winners and losers under a hillary clinton or donald trump presidency. this is bloomberg. ♪

emma: this is bloomberg daybreak. stay with bloomberg for special election coverage at 5:00 p.m. and from 7:00 p.m. with megan murphy and david gura. alix: a quick check of the markets. equities go nowhere. hours away from the polls closing. 0.5%&p only down a by

because of a nine day selloff, the longest losing streak since 1980. nasdaq off by 0.2%. over to abigail doolittle. abigail? abigail: the broader indices flat on the open but a look at health care stocks plunging on earnings per first up, shares a free marketdo. again on unexpected or quarter earnings. -- unexpected third-quarter earnings. the generics plus valiant and he did not think that third-quarter results were an inflection point. the stock is down more than 70% and he said there is no urgency to buy this stock or any in the generic space. plunging anymore is cbs, the stock on pace for the worst day in seven years.

the combination of a mixed third-quarter and a shocking 2017 outlook. they lowered the full your running outlook. -- full year outlook. moderating price inflation and a possibility that pressure from hillary clinton around hydro price could have an impact. time will tell. a go to bloomberg and look at bearish chart. we see in of trent that has been -- we see an uptrend that has been slashed. this chart suggests we can see the shares of cvs trade closer to $50 of the months ahead. alix: brutal. at how it might land after today's results. black rock's announces it does suggest drug makers banks will do better under a trump

presidency. above zero is a positive correlation. is positive for core services and consumer discretionary. let's break it down. joining us is christine harper and a zachary tracer. right on health care. enactolicies would trump that would help health care or is it not doing any worse? zachary: a really good question. will seen donald trump talk about wanting to repeal the affordable care act and removing regulations. you have to ask whether there are safety value in some of those drugmakers. trump making it easier to get drugs approved. drug pricing is not a new issue. it has been an issue for president obama and the question we have had is sentiment versus

fundamentals and reality. they can talk about doing something that let's say clinton becomes president, does it mean it will mean something for health care programs? one thing to watch, we have seen republicans and democrats criticize the high price of drugs. in an election where somebody -- everybody is opposed to see them come together and say drug prices are too high, they are hurting families and seniors, maybe it little bit of room for movement. is that going to hurt pfizer or gladstone? that is an open question. everybody says we want to fight it. more pressure on folks with increasing prices. jonathan: they might agree on the campaign trail on certain things, but will they agree on the other side? does: the financial sector

not feel like the obama administration has been good to it. christine: both platforms say they want to reinstate glass-steagall and break up banks. the view is republicans will not do it and democrats will. the general view even though in many ways, a populist anti-wall street campaign, the general beings trump will end up against regulation and rollback dodd-frank and the fiduciary rules and the industry will be rolled back. previous gaser talked about because he will have a republican congress. where as she wants to do more in terms of regulation. they talked about wanting interest rates to be higher and it is possible that trump will bid to change in the fed. it is hillary clinton giving speeches to wall street,

her reputation for being cozy has held her back. rhetoric and you hear a lot of people from wall street they are supporting hillary because of they know her, they trust her and they think she is pragmatic, reasonable person. they want a republican senate because they want to check on her. they arenders' wing afraid will blame -- gain too much sway. david: how important is the senate in this equation? you are going to need to have the votes in the congress and you will not have the and the senate. christine: more likely to happen under trump because you could argue the house will go along with whatever trump was to do it and oppose anything clinton wants to do. basically, they both could propose the same but trump could

be more successful. jonathan: christine, great to have you with us and zach. -- markets. what is coming up? >> i cannot wait. a very interesting theme on this election day. how the mandates era come to an end. also speaking with a david rothschild, he will be talking about polling, forecasting. ad a great interview with chancellor of germany. jonathan: that is coming up at the top of the hour. 22 minutes into the session in the united states. stocks are lower. a few hours into voting. for?should you look out

we will have a guide from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: this is bloomberg. the east coast, this is brooklyn, the brooklyn museum where people are going to polls. the polls will open it a few minutes in california. let's take a look at the national map which shows the states in a blue that are favored by hillary clinton by five points or more. red, the reverse for donald trump. a favor.her yellow are the top of states. heavily weighted to the west coast. and look at the first range of those tossup states.

slowly, there we go. there you have it. 7:00, georgia, virginia. :30, ohio. this is when the polls close. it is not necessarily when you get the results. the apmeally looking at major networks, they make the calls. alix: really looking at florida. it is always down to florida. could be very good for trump or clinton. florida, trump loses 58 electoral votes, it would be hard. can patch together ohio, pennsylvania, michigan, key states, a way to get to two under 70. jonathan: a 90 point spread. we are waiting for florida? 8, he could be

aggressive. if you're in a network like i have been, pre-election polling it is less than five points, you have to wait. you have to get enough from key precincts because you want to make sure you are right. it is unlikely we will call many tossup states. alix: 12 hours away. jonathan: 26 minutes into the session. we stay there. equities treading water throughout much of the day. yields downclasses a basis point. from new york on election day, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> from new york, vonnie quinn. >> i'm mark barton. look to bloomberg markets.

-- welcome to bloomberg markets. vonnie: from new york to london to san francisco. it's election day in america after campaigning for more than a year, voting is underway and polls will begin to close in less than 12 hours. we bring you the latest coverage from the bloomberg politics team. mark: monitoring all the market action today. currency volatility subsiding as opinion polls show hillary clinton is ahead of donald trump. vonnie: about 30 minutes into trading day in the u.s., julie hyman has the latest. are people still manning the desks? julie: there are but they are not doing much.